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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 05:47 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 16 2021, 08:48 AM

https://www.ft.com/video/06be766d-6f13-405f...72-dab96a797864

Three minutes



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 08:48 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 16 2021, 12:18 AM

Nobody knows whats going happen, despite all their credentials.
If there are enough pundits being quoted, someone, somewhere will get it right, but it will be a complete fluke.
History is great teacher, and we could get an inkling of what might happen if we look at past events.
But there are a couple of caveats.
Firstly history is told by the victor, and facts or interpretation of events can be distorted to produce varying "outcomes".
This is especially true of the inability of participants toi understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Secondly, the dreaded phrase "this time its different" just keeps popping up.
Society is different today, we have the 24 hour news cycle, the WWW and improved communications means that very little gets hidden away, its all out there. It is so difficult for a person or group to remain hidden away from the world, we are all exposed.
Attitudes have changed, we are more global than local.
But that does not change fundamental rules on the velocity of money, on the distorting effects of greed and corruption, or the glacial pace at which those in charge react to events.
But apart from that, everything is fine.
Take a positive view - namely no matter what happens, there will be good people who survive and prosper and the world WILL keep on turning.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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early birds
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 12:18 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/biden-covid...in-to-1929.html

When asked whether investors should be concerned that the president-elect’s spending plan could lead to an event like the 1929 stock market crash, Neuhauser replied: “I think so.”

“You are seeing this massive $1 trillion deficit spending due to a pandemic that has of course stopped the world in the past nine months and the goals of course are: ‘We are going to get a vaccine (and) we are going to come through this,’” Neuhauser told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“We still don’t know the dynamics as to how fast and swiftly we come through this. We also don’t know what global growth will look like in the future years, too.”

In the wake of the stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did not pass its previous peak until 1954.

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sound scary!! ohmy.gif
to me, i don't think it will lead to such bad place. but if can pop up current stock bubble that would be good thing!! imho





 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 11 2021, 08:59 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 11 2021, 08:40 AM

I do not think it is Kristallnacht nor is it 10 Days That Shook the World. All rather amateurish, really. time to move on.

Short term there is a phony rally happening abetted by the Central Bank Put(s) then we will have to see if this Covid thing can be beat, and whether the US can come up with responsible administration.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Jan 11 2021, 08:40 AM
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first 10 days of the new year, we face more chaos

to me, look at those event, focus on how they will affecting the financial market, then acting [[ doing the trades that have good chance to profit]
we have no power to change anything around world, but we do have the power try to look after ourselves and families ,and people around us!! tongue.gif

i'm all ear to listen to you guys!! graduated.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 10 2021, 08:38 AM
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brings us to MJ, OIH and XOP. While the differences with these compared to the others are obvious, it's still striking to see how far each remain from their respective highs.

They weren't too intriguing as the downtrends continued to extend lower. But now they do... and the bottoming patterns for each of them remain intriguing, even after the big percentage moves from the lows.

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that three stocks is US stocks, i'm not sure what are the FA for them. someone interested US stocks might get a look at them!! tongue.gif



 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 4 2021, 08:42 AM
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Wells Fargo recommended four semiconductor stocks for 2021, arguing the sector's record highs may be here to stay and that global chip-buying trends will propel the best names to even greater heights.

The sector's success has lifted the PHLX Semiconductor index, which tracks 30 of the most important names, to its highest valuation multiple in nearly a decade. But Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers said in a Thursday research note that the world's appetite for chips powering things such as 5G phones and data centers means his four picks have more room to grow.

New phones and continuing demand for more data-center processing power mean equipment manufacturers will need to include significantly more dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, in their products. One of the biggest memory makers, Micron Technologies (ticker: MU), stands to benefit.

Its DRAM is cutting-edge. Rakers' team predicts that the DRAM sales will power the stock to new heights and raised his target for the stock price to $100 from $85.

Micron's DRAM is needed in tons of places, such as helping to power artificial-intelligence and machine-learning applications, in next-generation videogame consoles, and in 5G phones, which typically contain more storage and memory than the prior generations of handsets.

The company, Rakers says, generates an increasing amount of non-GAAP free cash flow, and comes with a strong balance sheet. Barron's likes the name too.

One of Rakers' other picks, Nvidia (NVDA), will also benefit from the growing appetite for computing power. Its graphics processing chips are well suited to training software working with vast data sets, which then can do things such as translate speech and run virtual assistants. Rakers believes uses for those tools will increase, so he raised his target for the stock price to $625 from $605.

The analyst cautioned, however, that the bet on Nvidia for 2021 is less clear than it was this year, when the company launched its Ampere-based server and videogame chips.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) too will benefit from the need for more data-center processors. Its central processing units are already taking market share from rival Intel (INTC). Rakers predicts the trend will continue as it ramps up sales of its Zen-3 Epyc Milan central processing units.

Those chips are also helpful for supercomputing -- seen as a cutting-edge area in technology -- which benefits the AMD brand. Rakers boosted AMD's target price to $120 from $100.

Storage producer Western Digital (WDC) was a disappointment in 2020, but Rakers argues it is s ripe for a turnaround in the second half of 2021. His team thinks that the company's flash-memory business is undervalued and will ship an increasing number of solid-state drives to buyers. Rakers raised his target for the stock price to $65 from $55,

Micron stock was stable at about $72.24 in Friday afternoon trading, Nvidia shares fell 0.8% to $529.53, and AMD stock rose 0.5%. Western Digital rose 1% to $53.98 as the PHLX Semiconductor index notched a gain of 0.2%.
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USA stocks that might gives third or fourth opinion for someone interested!! tongue.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 28 2020, 04:58 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 28 2020, 01:36 PM

yeah, that may be true, and I don't advocate investing with them, collectively or individually, but the reality is there is a ton of money sloshing around, and these outfits get the mandates to put other people's money to work. In super, in family trusts, for sovereign wealth funds, the whole gamut. And what they do with the $s is important as they are the market, or at least a significant element of it.


What I found interesting is there seems to be a consensus view, and to me that is dangerous. A crowded trade when they want to get out (even if they do not signal that, ahead of time)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 28 2020, 01:36 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 28 2020, 12:29 PM

To paraphrase some body else , “ Well they would saybthat would they not.”
Fund managers rely on suckers believing that the said managers know what they are talking about and can improve returns.
You are already behind the eight ball because the managers take out their fees anything comes the way of the punter.
When was the last time a fund manager said get out of the market?
Never, because they would be cutting off their lucrative income streams.
Mick the cynic



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 28 2020, 12:29 PM
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it is that time, the end of the year. We have the pundits opining again; whether it is seen as shameless self promotion or a collective wisdom remains to be seen.

The Financial Times has drawn together a collection of some of the heavy hitters. There seems to be a consensus emerging; almost universally, fund managers believe the year will bring a rebound in economic activity, supporting assets that have already risen in value since the depths of the pandemic crisis in March, but also lifting sectors that had been left behind. Bond yields are expected to stay low, lending further support to stock valuations.

What could possibly go wrong?



Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management
Rising interest rates, unlikely as they are in the intermediate term, are the main threat. Today's high asset prices are highly dependent on low interest rates for their appropriateness. If rates were to rise, asset prices would probably fall.
However, there's little reason to believe rates will rise in the short run because there doesn't seem to be much inflation, and I believe the Federal Reserve isn't concerned about inflation.


Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen, CIO, NNIP
I don't think central banks will have to look through inflation, because I don't think there will be any. If I'm wrong and it does accelerate, that's a meaningful game-changer for markets.

It would mean that a lot of losers in markets that have been left behind could really catch up — think of banks and financials, but also the broader value factor that has suffered secular underperformance over the past decade.


Growth stocks would suffer from rising interest rates. They might still rise but less than value. And obviously government bonds would suffer.

Everybody has the same benign outlook. That's also a risk. We will be monitoring closely to see any concerning concentration in positions.


Sam Finkelstein, Co-CIO of global fixed income, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Fixed income investors face two key risks entering 2021. First, the extraordinary COVID-19 policy response has extended the challenge of low yields. Second, central banks have limited policy ammunition in the event of a negative growth shock.

This backdrop sharpens our focus on constructing balanced portfolios that are resilient to bouts of market volatility.


Vincent Mortier, Deputy CIO, Amundi
The recent market rally is based on blind faith in the vaccine and on the brave assumption that very soon, everything will revert to as it was before, or even better.

This is a risk: producing and distributing these vaccines on such a large scale won't be a walk in the park.

Fiscal and monetary support are keeping economies afloat, but only just. These measures are getting harder to implement.

Expect more monetisation of debt and increased pressure on central banks — any withdrawal of measures is unthinkable right now, and the risk of a policy mistake is underestimated by the market.

The third risk is the consensus itself. The hunt for yield with skyrocketing negative-yielding debt will push the search for yield to the extreme: there is almost $US1.5 trillion of bonds outstanding in "zombie companies".

The temptation for investors to accept lower quality in their portfolios is high, as is the bet that interest rates will remain low forever. This is dangerous.

Andrew Law, Chief executive of hedge fund Caxton Associates
The stage may well be set for a great reflation.

Many of the expressions [of this reflation] have been out of favour for the best part of a decade. Most market participants, and consequently their portfolios, are heavily conditioned from decades of disinflation or low inflation.

The change in the inflation regime, and subsequently the investor mindset, will likely have profound implications for asset allocations.


Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab
What concerns me most is sentiment. The success of the market itself recently has bred what I think is its greatest risk, which is overly optimistic sentiment.

In and of itself, stretched sentiment doesn't portend an imminent correction, but it does mean the market is likely more vulnerable to the extent there is a negative catalyst, which could come in any number of forms.


Scott Minerd, Global chief investment officer, Guggenheim Partners
The pandemic has completely reworked our free-market economic system based on competition, risk management and fiscal prudence.

It has been replaced by cycles of increasingly radical monetary intervention, the socialisation of credit risk, and a national policy of moral hazard.

This is troubling, as beyond the eyewall lies a poor credit environment judging by credit defaults, rating migration, and corporate fundamentals.

In aggregate, the high-yield [debt] market has 4.5 times more debt than last 12 month earnings before taxes and other items, a ratio that already exceeds the 2008—2009 default cycle peak, and is likely to worsen from here.

Gregory Peters, Managing director and senior portfolio manager, PGIM Fixed Income
It's amazing to me that the market has moved past the "Blue Sweep" idea [of Democrats winning control of both houses of Congress and the White House] . . . I think we could see a "Blue Sneak", as Georgia's Senate races are still very much in play to go blue. That could open up the fiscal spigot even more.

I still believe this will be a golden era for credit, but I'm probably more worried about this thesis than I was back in April. Everything is happening at warp speed, so maybe dividends, buybacks and M&A come back quickly as well.

The biggest market risk continues to be inflation. I think it will only move temporarily higher next year due to base effects and then come back down. But the risk is that it continues to move higher, and that changes everything.

We're putting a lot of faith in the Fed to stand its ground and not respond to accelerating inflation. If the Fed loses its nerve, and gets worried about inflation sooner than what they've intimated, then that could be a problem for markets, causing a kind of "Taper Tantrum 2.0" scenario.

Danny Yong, Founder of hedge fund Dymon Asia
The US dollar has crept lower this year, but could at some point fall precipitously. If that happens, the Fed will lose the flexibility of negative [real] interest rates, and may even be forced to pause asset purchases. That's the tail risk scenario.

If there's no Blue Sweep [in January's Georgia Senate elections], then the Fed is the back-up. But if you lose the back-up, then the world could be in for a rude shock.

It's plausible, it's not that crazy a scenario. If the dollar goes significantly lower, then the Fed could run out of easing options, which would lead to an equity sell-off.


Paul McNamara, Emerging-markets debt portfolio manager, GAM
Financial markets have held together because of low policy rates and low bond yields, and lower discount rates have supported asset prices and suppressed government debt costs.


Although emerging-market debt burdens are (mostly much) lower than developed-market ones, yields are not, so debt servicing costs have not been suppressed to the same degree.

EM central banks have cut rates as aggressively as DM ones, but bond buyers have been more cautious. Unlike DM, EM central bankers have not had the benefit of the doubt. Turkey is especially instructive — a government refusal to recognise balance of payments constraints led to the need for a near-unique aggressive rate hike.

This is the example of what we see as a broader risk: if EM policymakers do not continue to recognise that they face much tighter constraints due to the balance of payments than their DM counterparts, they risk a debt spiral that seems a very remote possibility in DM.


Financial Times



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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