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post Posted: Dec 24 2010, 09:53 AM
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In Reply To: vegemite's post @ Oct 6 2010, 08:16 AM

IMO TSV merging with Latent is great for TSV shareholders. Only caveat would be the financial condition of Latent.
One of the more interesting tight gas plays.

It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.

― Mark Twain
post Posted: Oct 6 2010, 08:16 AM
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This is from the 22nd September edition of the excellent StockAnalysis newsletter. From my own calculations the options (QPNO and TNPO) offer approximately 40 fold leverage against the roughly 15 fold leverage for QPN and TNP so personally I've picked up some QPNO. The attraction of the more conservative TSV purchase is that as Peter says the share price is underpinned by Warro so won't entirely crash and burn in the case of a duster...

Transerv Strikes a Deal on Gulf Coast

Recommendation: Transerv’s current share price is underpinned by an ongoing 10% interest in tight gas development at Warro, where Alcoa is funding field evaluation. Participation in the Amazon prospect holds speculative appeal. Success would underpin ongoing
cash requirements and would add significantly to its assessed value.

During a hiatus in drilling activity at its 10% held Warro tight gas field in the Perth Basin, Transerv has used its corporate connections with Quest Petroleum, combined
with a flow of new equity funds from the exercise of options, to take a 5% interest in the drilling of two, relatively moderate risk prospects on the Louisiana Gulf Coast to be drilled over the next 6 months. The larger Amazon prospect is expected to spud in October and is likely to take six weeks to drill to a total depth of 4,880 metres, testing several thick horizons of over-pressured sediments within an interpreted tilted fault
block structure where strong seismic AVO anomalism supports a case for discovery of gas at depth.

Amazon is estimated to be capable of holding 45 mmbbls of oil/condensate plus 450 Bcf of gas if hydrocarbons are present and discovery at this level would be worth 9 cps to Transerv for its 5% interest, while Quest would see a 20 cps uplift for its retained 15% and Tango would also have strong leverage of $1.81 per share for its 17.5% in the project.

The smaller Thames structure is situated on the flank of a salt feature and shows multiple layers of targets, again with seismic AVO anomalism supporting the case for
drilling. The Amazon wildcat is budgeted to cost US$8.2 million and TSV will be paying for 9% to earn its 5% equity. Partners give Amazon a 35% probability of success, which makes it moderate risk.

All ASX listed partners here have strong leverage to success on these relatively large targets. Key risks include the normal exploration type of risks and also an engineering risk, associated with drilling in highly over-pressured sediments.

Transerv has taken the stance that this is an achievable target and while there is no current need to spend funds on Warro, this opportunity is worth the risk and if successful could underpin the establishment of a sustaining cash flow to Transerv, which would reduce the need for ongoing new equity issues.

Others along the Gulf Coast, including Strike Energy, Golden Gate Resources and Grand Gulf have largely not met expectations from well-formulated, good looking prospects, which failed to deliver, so caution is always necessary in such speculative ventures.

TSV - Capital Structure
Shares 882.4 m.
Options 87.5 m.
Total 969.9 m.
Price 0.013 $
Market Cap 11.5 $ m.
Cash (est) 2.0 $ m.

Well oil gas Risk NPV NPV Cost
mmbbls Bcf % $m oil gas /BOE US$
Amazon 45 450 20% 1755 22 1.7 14.6 $ 8.0 $
Thames 6 57 20% 223 22 1.6 14.4 $ 5.0 $
Source: Strachan Corporate

Amazon 5% 15% 17.5%
Thames 5% 15% 17.5%
Discovery Value/share $ TSV QPN TNP
Amazon 0.09 0.20 1.81
Thames 0.01 0.03 0.23
Risk Adjusted Value/Share 0.019 $ 0.042$ 0.38 $
Leverage/share TSV QPN TNP
Amazon 646% 1647% 1390%
Thames 82% 210% 177%
Combined 728% 1857% 1566%
Source: Strachan Corporate

post Posted: Aug 27 2009, 03:18 PM
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In Reply To: billybongo's post @ Aug 25 2009, 06:42 AM

No Im not and re-wording your initial post doent answer the question so it hasnt done the trick. How about I re-word mine? Before I do realize Im winding you up and just having a bit of fun. No ill feelings intended

OK regarding " disclosure: risk/reward ratio 10/1 ". Do you have grounds for a one in ten chance or did you just pluck this set of numbers out of a dark hole? biggrin.gif

Timing is everything
post Posted: Aug 25 2009, 06:42 AM
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In Reply To: STRAT's post @ Aug 24 2009, 05:55 PM

gosh you demanding..
ok then..
there is 1 chance out of 10 that TSV will be a 10 bagger..
that should do the trick..

post Posted: Aug 24 2009, 05:55 PM
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In Reply To: billybongo's post @ Aug 23 2009, 09:11 AM

Thanks Billy and good on ya but that doesnt exactly answer the question. Not that you are obliged to answer it in any case.

Timing is everything
post Posted: Aug 23 2009, 09:11 AM
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In Reply To: STRAT's post @ Aug 23 2009, 08:12 AM

thanks for your interest...
the gas is there..
the drilling progress is there
the water issue can be solved
the government is banking on
alcoa want to the achievement..
big boy well connected..
just waiting for results to flood the investors..
the market is a bit toppy,, but TSV can break out on very little news
any how good luck
i did enter thu and fri..
will wait 2 weeks to square the books


post Posted: Aug 23 2009, 08:12 AM
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In Reply To: billybongo's post @ Aug 22 2009, 07:58 AM

Risk reward ratio 10/1? lmaosmiley.gif

Howd you come up with that set of numbers, may I ask and what exactly does it disclose?

Timing is everything
post Posted: Aug 22 2009, 07:58 AM
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TRANSVER TSV Stock on the radar
research and announcements compiling from the last 6 months
are due to results to be announced soon/???
the chart meantine did cruise on a good median support at 2.5
accordingly one might suggest we are due for a
disclosure: risk/reward ratio 10/1

Pub Lunch Man
post Posted: Jun 28 2009, 07:15 PM
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Alinta hikes gas bills by 23 pc

Updated Fri Jun 26, 2009 10:41am AEST

The West Australian Government has given Alinta permission to increase gas prices by 23 per cent from next week.

Alinta has been pushing to increase its tariffs to recoup costs incurred from the Varanus Island gas explosion.

The price rise will add about $90-a-year or $1.70-a-week to the average household gas bill.

It comes on top of big increased costs for householders, with council rates tipped to rise by up to $50 and power bills to rise by 26 per cent this year and a similar amount next year. Car registrations and inner-city parking fees have also gone up.

Alinta has defended the increase, saying the rising cost of providing gas has left it with no other option.

The general manager of retail at Alinta, Ralph Bates, says customers who have trouble paying their bill should contact the utility.

"Price rises are never welcomed, and we at Alinta are committed to ensuring that customers who are experiencing payment difficulties or genuine financial hardship are supported and assisted," he said.

The price increase is effective from next week.

Increase justified?
The WA Government has also defended the decision to increase gas prices by almost a quarter.

The Energy Minister, Peter Collier, says the price rise is necessary to keep Alinta viable.

"These increases amount to $1.70 per week per household. Yes they are steep, but unfortunately they're unavoidable," he said.

But Opposition Leader Eric Ripper disagrees.

"This is a shocking increase on top of the increases in household fees and charges in the State Budget," he said.

Mr Ripper warns more price rises are on the cards as the Government struggles to stop the Budget from going into deficit.

Labor's energy spokeswoman, Kate Doust, says Alinta should absorb the costs incurred from last June's explosion.

"The Minister should have to explain why he agreed that they should be able to have this particular tariff increase," she said.

"Even if it is only for 12 months. Alinta have made profits so how can they justify this increase?"

The executive director of the WA Council of Social Service, Sue Ash, says the increase will hit low income families hard.

"The unexpected big increase is going to be very difficult for people to manage," she said.


post Posted: Jun 23 2009, 11:24 PM
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Decided to sell my final free-carried portion and leave. While TSV have much to offer, it might take a while to get the flow rates they require for the SP to move quickly - decided to take the funds to get set elsewhere.

All the best to holders.

Ave. in 1.7c
Ave. out 2.7c approx. 55+% biggrin.gif


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