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BATTERIES, TECHNOLOGY, RAW MATERIALS, GENERAL NEWS
nipper
post Posted: Apr 5 2021, 11:22 AM
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The next electric-car battery champion could be European


by Tara Patel and Ewa Krukowska


With Europe expected to lead the world in electric car sales for a second straight year, an epic rush to build a battery-supply chain from scratch is playing out across the continent.
After years of ceding the EV battery business to foreign companies, Europe wants in. Prospective manufacturers are popping up in the Nordic region, Germany, France, the UK and Poland in a transcontinental competition to chip away at the dominance of China's Contemporary Amperex Technology and South Korea's LG Energy Solution.

Fuelled by state support of at least 6.1 billion euros ($7.3 billion) and investment plans totaling 10 times that in just one year, the race is on for a regional champion to emerge. The contestants include startups Northvolt AB in Sweden, Britishvolt and France's Automotive Cells Co, and powerhouses Tesla and Volkswagen.

Bloomberg NEF estimates the continent could see its share of global battery production rise to 31 per cent by 2030 from just 7 per cent last year.

"We're creating a new industry in Europe; we're creating a completely new ecosystem," Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission vice president overseeing the battery initiative, said in an interview. The investments are really pouring in.

Sefcovic estimated the planned investments just for 2019 to be about 60 billion euros ($71 billion), triple that being spent in China. Those eye-watering totals cover the entire supply chain, from materials and cells to assembly and recycling.

Amid tougher emissions rules and fines for violating them, sales of EVs -- both battery-electric and plug in hybrid models -- in Europe more than doubled last year to about 1.3 million units, topping China for the first time.

That could reach 1.9 million this year as VW, Stellantis NV and BMW AG map out plans for new models and higher output, and Ford and Volvo commit to going almost all-electric.

Those ambitions will require a lot of power packs, and the local auto industry's reliance on overseas suppliers grates on political leaders in Germany, France and Brussels. They are loath to have local automakers, which are major employers, be reliant on battery makers based outside the region.

The clamber to build up local supply chains is palpable. Traditional car-making countries Germany, France, Italy and the UK are especially keen to stay competitive in battery technology and maintain their manufacturing bases.

Germany is elbowing its way to the front of the pack, committing as much as 2.6 billion euros to the battery business and luring Tesla, CATL, LG Energy and ACC to set up shop there.

"Every nation wants a battery plant," said Jean-Pierre Corniou, a former Renault SA executive now a partner at consultancy SIA Partners.

There are plans for 27 battery-producing sites across the region that could churn out least 500 gigawatt-hours of cells this decade, he estimated.

VW made a massive bid for the pole position last month by unleashing an estimated $18 billion plan for six battery factories in Europe including one in Salzgitter, Germany -- and to expand its network of fast-charging stations.

If all goes as intended, the German automaker and partners could leapfrog challengers and become the world's No. 2 cell producer behind CATL, according to BNEF.

QUOTE
Automakers are realising they would lose out on a lot of added value, so they want to re-appropriate the manufacturing process, Corniou said.


The European Commission set a target of getting at least 30 million zero emission cars on the roads by 2030, and the ambition is that European factories would cover more than 90 per cent of the demand for batteries.

VW will plug its own packs into its own cars, leaving wide-open lanes for competing battery makers to nab customers. European automakers are under pressure to meet stricter European Union emissions rules, and consumer spending is expected to explode as nations emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns.

Battery demand is forecast to be so strong that production barely will keep pace by decade's end, according to UBS Group AG analysts.

So the market is there. Yet it won't be easy for the startups to catch CATL, Panasonic and LG Energy, all of whom spent years honing operations in Asia and the US before moving into Europe.

CATL, the largest producer of rechargeable cells, will invest 78 billion yuan ($12 billion) to add about 230 gigawatt-hours of capacity worldwide within the next four years. The Ningde, China-based company supplies almost every major global EV brand, and it's scheduled to start producing in Germany this year.

And then there's Elon Musk. Tesla is the biggest EV maker, selling about half-a-million cars last year, and plans to assemble Model Ys and batteries in Germany to juice its European expansion. Musk's operations are becoming a magnet for EV suppliers and triggering a local industrial renaissance. That expertise is daunting for competitors, said Isobel Sheldon, chief strategy officer for Britishvolt.

QUOTE
Tesla is the biggest thorn in the side for the European cell manufacturing base, she said.


When it comes to the startups, Northvolt , founded by former Tesla executives , is years ahead of rivals. The company has a $14 billion supply deal with VW and another with BMW AG, and is preparing to churn out cells by year's end at its Skelleftea site. Northvolt wants to grab 25 per cent of Europe's battery market by 2030, Chief executive officer and founder Peter Carlsson has said.

That was before the VW offensive. Automakers "are putting more and more efforts behind their electrification plans and have revised their battery needs upwards," said Jesper Wigardt, a Northvolt spokesman. "We will need to evaluate our target continuously."

Britishvolt plans to start building a 2.6 billion-pound ($3.6 billion) factory in northeast England later this year. The site will use hydropower from Norway and could be online by 2023. The startup based in Blyth is in talks with EV makers in the UK, EU, US and Japan, she said without elaborating.

Further behind, but flush with public funds for development, is a joint venture between Stellantis and oil giant Total SA. Instead of starting from scratch, ACC plans to hasten expansion by producing batteries at two former car-parts plants.

QUOTE
Europe isn't too late, said Corniou, the SIA consultant. The market will be colossal, and there's a need for competitive technology.
Bloomberg



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Danville
post Posted: Mar 31 2021, 07:53 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 30 2021, 10:36 AM

Excellent article. This will take some time to digest. PLL (Piedmont Lithium) is one I trade frequently in the US as they are dual listed. Their share price just gotten smashed due to a recent capital raising which was over subscribed. Probably a really good time to snap this one up.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 30 2021, 10:36 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 6 2021, 06:01 PM

earlybirds asked for some help, or direction, to look into Battery and EV stocks

A recent Stockhead article covers the metals side quite well, if only in listing many of the players on ASX
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/battery-...-your-kid-rich/

QUOTE
By 2030, UBS predicts we will need a lot of manganese, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, nickel and copper if car makers are to hit some very ambitious production targets.

They estimate EV penetration increasing from 4 per cent currently to 20 per cent of the market by 2025, and 50 per cent by 2030. That's 3 million per year to 46 million per year.

Meanwhile, average battery size will increase from 47kWh to 94kWh.

By 2030, they also predict that:


.. Lithium demand will lift ~1100% from ~400,000 to 4.4 million tonnes

.. Natural graphite demand grows by 700%

.. Demand for nickel grows from ~2.6mtpa to 5.8mtpa

.. Rare earths neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) face "a step change" in demand from ~30ktpa towards ~100ktpa

.. Cobalt demand to expand over the next decade from around 120ktpa to over 400ktpa

.. And by 2030, copper consumption in EVs which averages 90kg vs 20kg in ICE vehicles will represent 4.4mt of copper demand or around 13% of the total




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  Danville  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 6 2021, 06:01 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 6 2021, 10:27 AM

which is why i am hanging on to my Talga TLG shares..

Build a new anode supply chain outside of Asia to serve the European and North American markets
Production of the most sustainable and lowest-cost anode for Li-ion batteries would use:
.. responsibly extracted natural graphite
... 100% sustainable electricity*
.... locally produced materials (short supply chain)



*N Sweden hydro power



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
myshares
post Posted: Mar 6 2021, 04:53 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 6 2021, 10:27 AM

This was interesting...

I invested in Abaxx on the Neo exchange in Torronto.

This Podcast talks about their plans and it is basically going to capitsalise on this sort of issue.

earlier podcasts are more on the key points than the later podcasts

e.g Robert Friedland 28 November 2020 podcast.. and think about his Copper mine...powered by Hydro....

Smarter Markets

 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 6 2021, 10:27 AM
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where Europe leads, the others will probably follow?

Pending Co2 Footprint for EVs Puts Mineral Suppliers on Notice ... by Mark Story

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/03/05/pen...iers-on-notice/
QUOTE
New regulation by the European Commission Regulation on Sustainable Batteries and Carbon Footprint, includes mandatory requirements on footprint rules and responsibly sourced materials used in lithium-ion battery production in the EU. From 1 January 2026, lithium-ion batteries will have to bear a carbon intensity performance class label and from 1 July 2027, must comply with maximum carbon footprint thresholds, with the EU planning to ban batteries unable to satisfy new regulations.

Late last week the US followed suit, with the Biden administration announcing it will sign an executive order to help create more resilient and secure supply chains for critical and essential goods. As a result, building a local EV ecosystem will become as important in the US as it is in Europe.


Implications for suppliers
With the onus on manufacturers to demonstrate that they are sourcing raw materials in a responsible way, Lake Resources (ASX: LKE) Managing Director Stephen Promintz says there are huge implications for Australian miners, a major provider of minerals such as manganese, cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel, aluminium and copper that go into batteries of EV vehicles globally.

Through a digital passport, tracking all materials used in the battery composition from upstream, all suppliers will have to provide mandatory third party verification. With the battery alone accounting for 30%-plus of a total (entry level) EV vehicle cost, Promintz says the ramifications of having to disclose carbon intensity performance class labels by 2026 is something all miners providing these materials will need to think long and hard about.

He also notes that while pending legislation relates exclusively to the CO2 footprint, this may extend to other areas going forward.

From price to quality

One of the more obvious fallouts for the EV industry at large is the refocus away from the previous preoccupation with price as a primary factor. To help put the price consideration in the right context, investors should recognise that in last few years the cost of a Lithium-ion battery pack has reduced threefold to now be nudging the all-important $100/kWh level.
According to BloombergNEF's annual battery price survey, which considers passenger EVs, e-buses, commercial EVs and stationary storage, average pack prices will be $101/kWh by 2023. It is at around this price point at which automakers (subject to commodity price increases) should be able to produce and sell mass market EVs at comparable prices (and margins) to the internal combustion engine vehicles in some markets.


Winners and losers

Not all miners of materials to the EV battery market were made equally, and here's just one example. To feed the growing lithium-ion battery sector, most lithium is sourced from closed-basin brines (58%) or hard rock deposits such as pegmatites and related granites (26%), which have two diametrically different extraction processes.
As a result, there are some more obvious casualties and beneficiaries from the pending EU and US legislation around carbon footprints. For example, while Vulcan Energy (ASX: VUL) expects to commence production of Zero Carbon Lithium in 2024, and is well positioned for when the EU introduces maximum carbon footprint thresholds for industrial and EV batteries in 2027, the vast majority of its mining contemporaries who feed into the EV ecosystem are not.

While the cost of inputs for EV manufacturers might be same, the Co2 footprint that goes into providing those materials will differ significantly, depending on the processes being used. As a case in point, Vulcan Energy is developing its deep geothermal and lithium brine resource in the Upper Rhine Valley in Germany. Vulcan will use its unique zero-carbon lithium process to produce both renewable geothermal energy and lithium hydroxide from the same deep brine source.

Then there's lithium extraction from brine via a process called solar evaporation (used by companies like Lake Resources or Anson Resources (ASX: ASN)), which could be up to a fifth more Co2 friendly than the process associated with extraction of lithium from Spodumene, an aluminium silicate mineral (LiAlSi2O6) in the pyroxene family. Spodumene players in the lithium space, including companies like Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), and Orocobre (ASX: ORE) are required to use much greater heat and energy to drive the extraction process.


Lithium is just one example
While the lithium example is useful, it's important to remember that the different extraction methods applied across other rare earth minerals will, over time, separate the winners from the losers in the quest to satisfy pending EU and US legislation around carbon footprints.

Given Australia is an upstream provider, and neither has an EV/battery manufacturing base locally nor is likely to have one anytime soon, there is no way for the local mining sector to avoid the impost associated with reducing its CO2 footprint.

Owing to the sheer size of demand, it's conceivable over the next 10 years that every listed miner within the EV ecosystem , be it of lithium or other minerals , will be able to find a battery developer to accept its product, regardless of the process.

But in the medium term, as growing discretion on the choice of materials is coupled with the weight of money going toward ESG investing, some developers will need to look closely at their energy sources, and how they fit into the supply chain.

All investors in these rare earth companies need to watch this space closely.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: myshares  
 


nipper
post Posted: Feb 25 2021, 10:06 AM
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In its Global EV Outlook 2020, the International Energy Agency noted that in the Stated Policies Scenario, which incorporates existing government policies, the global EV battery capacity will increase from about 170 gigawatt hours (GWh) per year to 1.5 terawatt hours (TWh) per year in 2030.

This increases to 3TWh under the Sustainable Development Scenario that is fully compatible with the Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Stationary uses are also forecast to grow with IDTechEx estimating a 38 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2021 and 2031 to a cumulative installed energy capacity of more than 1TWh.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 5 2021, 08:59 PM
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And Wired, ..... The race to crack Battery Recycling before its too late


https://www.wired.com/story/the-race-to-cra...e-its-too-late/



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 27 2021, 02:28 PM
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Stockhead with another article on battery metals


https://stockhead-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org...-soon-follow%2F



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 25 2020, 11:50 AM
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There is a nice summary of Nickel and other EV minerals, a basket of 105 ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and vanadium, .... quite a few doubled or better; with several ten baggers, and just in a 12 month period

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/high-vol...overies-galore/




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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