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ORE, OROCOBRE LIMITED
triage
post Posted: Yesterday, 07:30 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Yesterday, 09:35 AM

Seeing how Orocobre is not paying any premium for the Galaxy shares I wonder whether one of the big boppers in the sector will attempt to come over the top. If the Chinese really want to dominate this market then money should be no object for them. Orocobre and Galaxy have a no talk, no due diligence rule in place so if another bidder emerges they will have to go on public info and a conviction that this lithium cycle is just kicking off.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:35 AM
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Orocobre and Galaxy said they will merge via a Galaxy scheme of arrangement, under which Orocobre will acquire 100 per cent of the fully paid ordinary shares in Galaxy. Galaxy shareholders to receive 0.569 new fully paid ordinary shares in Orocobre for each Galaxy share held.

Upon completion of the scheme, Galaxy shareholders will own 45.8 per cent of the fully diluted share capital of the combined entity and Orocobre shareholders will own the remaining 54.2 per cent, reflecting an at-market merger.

The merger creates a leading ASX lithium company with about 40ktpa LCE production capacity and a top 5 lithium company globally.

Proforma market capitalisation has been estimated at $4 billion. The combined entity is expected to be included in the ASX 200 index and approach ASX 100 index thresholds.

The deal has been unanimously recommended by the Galaxy board, subject to no superior proposal emerging for Galaxy, and the independent expert concluding that the scheme is in the best interests of Galaxy shareholders.

Each Galaxy director intends to vote all the shares that they hold in favour of the Scheme, subject to the same qualifications.

Martin Rowley will be appointed non-executive chairman and Robert Hubbard will be appointed deputy chairman.

Both Mr Rowley and Mr Hubbard will retire from their roles within 12 months of implementation. They will lead a process to ensure that the longer term board composition is ideally placed to lead the merged entity forward

Martn Prez de Solay will remain as CEO and managing director of the combined entity while Simon Hay will assume a newly created role as President of International Business reporting to the CEO.

Orocobre said it produced a record 3,232 tonnes of lithium in the March quarter, up 18 per cent on the previous corresponding period.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 28 2020, 09:24 AM
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ORE is raising approximately A$126 million / US$91 million from a Placement and will issue approximately 50.0 million new fully paid ordinary shares, representing 18.1% of the existing shares on issue.


Proceeds from the Equity Raising will be used to allow the Company to fully fund Olaroz Stage 2 and deliver the Olaroz Stage 1 ramp up through a range of operating, COVID19 and pricing environments, as well as capital for future growth initiatives.
The Placement issue price of A$2.52 per share represents a 13.1% discount. Plus a SPP with a discount IF the VWAP drops too low!!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 23 2019, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE
Orocobre downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan, price target slashed 20pc
Sarah Turner

JPMorgan cut its rating on lithium producer Orocobre to neutral and slashed its price target by 20 per cent to $2.30 a share.

"Production of 3,093 tonnes was a record for the September quarter but still short of our expectations," the broker said.

At the same time, costs rose 9 per cent quarter on quarter to $US4,885 per tonne, it noted.

"Expectations for the December quarter are for an even lower realised price of US$6,200-6,500 per tonne, meaning margins are skinny once we include royalties and the export tax."

JPMorgan further reduced its realised price forecasts for fiscal year 2020, cut its fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021 production estimates, and increased unit cost assumptions.

"We remain attracted to the EV raw material sector and Orocobre's assets in the long term. But with excess inventory in the supply chain and majors keen to maintain market share, lithium prices could stay weak for a while," the broker said.


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 29 2019, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE
Highlights:
• Statutory Group net profit of US$54.6 million for FY19 includes a number of one off items. Underlying NPAT of US$24.8 million is down from US$25.7 million in the previous corresponding period
• Underlying EBITDAIX is US$54.1 million, down from US$86.7 million
• Total production of 12,605 tonnes of lithium carbonate

• Strong results from the Olaroz Lithium Facility:
- revenue of US$124.7 million, on sales of 12,080 tonnes of lithium carbonate
- EBITDAIX of US$60.9 million, after deducting export tax of US$7.5 million
- average price received of US$10,322/tonne FOB, down from US$12,578/tonne FOB in PCP
- gross operating cash margins of 58% with lithium production costs3 of US$4,302/tonne up from US$4,194/tonne in FY18, making Olaroz one of the lowest cost producers of lithium chemicals in the world
- gross cash margin of US$6,020/tonne, despite lower prices

• As of 30 June 2019, Orocobre Group had cash of US$279.8 million.
• Final Investment Decision approval for Stage 2 Expansion of the Olaroz Lithium Facility andNaraha Lithium Hydroxide Plant given by Orocobre, Toyota Tsusho Corporation and JV boards. Finance now completed for both projects
.... sentiment is against it. ( Not to mention oversupply and sheer uncertainty)

QUOTE
Outlook, Guidance and Data
Subject to market and operating conditions Orocobre provides the following guidance:
Olaroz Lithium Facility
• Orocobre expects full year production (FY20) will be at least 5% higher than FY19
• Further to the soft lithium carbonate pricing experience in the June half, Orocobre expectsthe average sales price for the September 2019 quarter to be approximately US$7,250 pertonne (FOB)

Borax Argentina
• Production forecast of 45-50,000 tonnes for FY20

Corporate
• Cash corporate costs will be US$8.5 - 9.5 million, including costs related to the Stage 2 Expansion and the Naraha Lithium Hydroxide Plant




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 08:51 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 20 2018, 09:04 PM

ORE gets a mention in the following article.

extract from The Bull's - 2018 ASX 200 Winners and Losers - http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/79480-...and-losers.html

QUOTE
A newcomer to share market investing would look at this list and wonder how four of the five stocks with the highest growth forecasts performed so poorly in 2018. What’s more, even a casual follower of business news has read of the coming emergence of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Hardly a person on the planet is unfamiliar with the lithium-ion battery that powers the electronic toys of today and the vehicles of tomorrow.

Three of those four worst performers are in the business of mining the metals needed to produce those li-ion batteries. Those three companies – Pilbara Minerals (PLS), Orocobre Limited (ORE), and Syrah Resources (SYR) along with satellite communications provider Speedcast International (SDA) are all in the ASX Top 30 Short List.

In the eyes of many retail investors, the short-sellers, or shorts, are the smartest people in the room since with the unlimited risks they face due diligence is a premium without which they cannot do.

The essence of short selling is borrowing shares at a given price and profiting when the price drops and the seller buys the shares at the lower price and pockets the difference. When the price goes the opposite way the losses keep mounting, theoretically to infinity, until the shorts panic and buy to cover. That means, in theory at least, the shorts need to be virtually certain a given stock is due for a downtrend.

So why would they bet against EVs and their battery packs? Retail investors who have been in the game for awhile know how quickly a red-hot sector can freeze over. In the fire-up stage investors rush in to buy and producers rush in to produce more of whatever has caught fire, thus inadvertently lowering the price. Orocobre and Pilbara are in the lithium business while [u][b]Syrah is a graphite producer. Initially the shorts appear to have latched on to the falling price of both graphite and lithium as the perception crept into the market that supply was outstripping demand. In addition, some experts were questioning the extremely optimistic forecasts for EV demand in the next decades.
[/b][/u]
Now there is a new concern; one that was always there and has now bubbled to the surface. The truth is the lithium-ion battery may not be the technology of tomorrow as it has serious drawbacks. Right now, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and manganese are in the mix but research efforts for alternatives abound. The industry was shocked in mid-2018 when Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk made the claim that cobalt, once the must have metal, would be less evident in Tesla batteries in favor of increased nickel content, a cheaper metal.

That could have served as a reminder of the potential of other minerals falling out of the mix in the future. The price of both lithium and graphite has been volatile over the past several years, but both are improving.

While the price of both metals fell due to the oversupply issue, lithium recovered more quickly than graphite. Now the concern for graphite has shifted to shortage concerns with the price gradually improving in 2017. The following graph is from Canadian producer Northern Graphite.

All three of these companies are on the cusp of major production capability and at the very least deserve a spot on any investor’s watchlist.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 


triage
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 09:04 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 20 2018, 02:07 PM

sad.gif

(but in good news Australian Super has taken a 5% holding in Orocobre).




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 02:07 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 2 2018, 11:39 AM

Olaroz lithium facility update
QUOTE
Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE, TSX: ORL) (“Orocobre” or “the Company”) wishes to provide an update
on commercial and production estimates following the near finalisation of shipping schedules and
pricing outcomes.

Sales of lithium carbonate are expected to be approximately 5,000 tonnes for the December half year
at a price of US$12,470 per tonne, down approximately 8% on the June half. Production is expected
to be approximately 6,000 tonnes for the half year and remains in line with previous guidance for
FY19.

The pricing achieved recently has been affected by soft market conditions in China having a direct
impact on shorter term contracts resulting in December quarter prices of approximately US$10,800
per tonne on sales of approximately 2,850 tonnes.

There was also an indirect impact as a number of customers outside China have downstream exposure
to the Chinese market experiencing market/commercial pressure.


SP down 11.03% currently @ $3.47
Short positions @ 14/12/18 = 14.04%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 2 2018, 11:39 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 31 2018, 06:28 AM

Going for a bit of a run this morning again - up 14.78% @ $4.27/share.

Currently #2 on Shortmans Top 100 Most Shorted Stocks with total short positions @ 16.83% as at 26th October 2018
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 31 2018, 06:28 AM
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QUOTE
Orocobre expects prices for the commodity to continue to soften in the months ahead, but believes the bottom could be in sight.

Shares in Orocobre and a host of other lithium miners and developers have been hammered this year amid softening spot prices in China and broader fears of a potential oversupply in the market.

Orocobre’s quarterly report released yesterday showed the company had achieved a record sales prices of $US14,699 per tonne of lithium carbonate for that period, although it warned they would be lower in the second half.

Managing director Richard Seville indicated prices could turn for the better in 2019.

"We're not not going to give guidance on pricing. What I would say, though, is the backdrop for negotiations is getting more attractive than where it was a month ago,” he said.

He noted that the Chinese lithium spot price — whose fall this year drove much of the anxiety in the lithium sector — was “pretty well hitting the bottom”.

Chinese lithium producers were starting to put up their prices amid signs of restocking by customers.

“That backdrop is a change in psychology that we were expecting,” Mr Seville said.

The quarterly report also supported one of the key arguments put forward by some of the lithium bulls, namely that it will take longer than expected for new lithium producers to reach their production.

The company’s production for the quarter of 2293 tonnes of lithium carbonate was down 36 per cent from the June quarter, primarily due to the lower evaporation from its lithium brine ponds during winter but also because of a two-week maintenance closure.

Mr Seville also confirmed that the expected completion date for the company’s new lithium hydroxide plant had been pushed back by six months.. .
- with the quarterlies coming it, commentary is
going to be along these lines.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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