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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 17 2019, 04:37 PM
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Posts: 6,076
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Wall Street ends sharply higher on German stimulus optimism
Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as an ebbing bond rally and news of potential German economic stimulus brought buyers back to the equities market, closing the book on a tumultuous week.

QUOTE
While all three major U.S. stock averages ended the session higher, they still logged their third consecutive weekly losses, having been rattled since Monday by growing U.S.-China trade animosity, simmering geopolitical tensions and signals from the bond market that sparked fears of impending recession.

Germany’s coalition government is willing to suspend its balanced budget rule and take on debt, according to Der Spiegel magazine, raising hopes that Europe’s largest economy could steer itself away from recession and cooling worries over a global economic slowdown.


QUOTE
Rising bond yields gave a boost to rate-sensitive banks, sending the S&P 500 Banks index .SPXBK up 2.6%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 306.62 points, or 1.2%, to 25,886.01, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 41.09 points, or 1.44%, to 2,888.69 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 129.38 points, or 1.67%, to 7,895.99.

read more - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stock...m-idUKKCN1V613R



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 11:03 PM
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Posts: 6,076
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM

Yield curves not the only problem

China Signals U.S. Tariff Delay Not Enough to Stop Retaliation
Bloomberg News
August 15, 2019, 7:08 PM GMT+10 Updated on August 15, 2019, 8:43 PM GMT+10
Committee that’s overseen retaliation issues statement
China says U.S. broke agreements between Trump and Xi
QUOTE
China called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signaling an American move earlier this week to delay some of those levies was not enough to stave off retaliation.

The new 10% tariffs have taken the U.S. and China off the track of resolving their dispute through negotiation, the State Council Tariff Committee, which has overseen tit-for-tat retaliation, said in a short statement on Thursday. China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate,” it said, without specifying what the nation would do.

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM
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Posts: 6,076
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 15 2019, 07:09 PM

Here's David Rowe's version of the "inverted yield curve" smile.gif

Attached File(s)
Attached File  EB_pxmCUEAETb2t.jpg ( 266.63K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 07:09 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 02:01 PM

Inverted Yield Curve and does it matter?

https://beta-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproj...From%20%251%24s

QUOTE
The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts.

Because of that link, substantial and long-lasting inversions of the yield curve are largely viewed as a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way
- can go broke waiting. And is "several years" causal?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 02:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 09:55 AM

Graph showing the "yield curve" in this article - Global markets on 'borrowed time' as the inverted yield curve signals a recession is on the way

QUOTE
Last gasp rally on the cards
While bond markets have become increasingly agitated, equities have remained relatively relaxed — until last night, at least.

That shift in sentiment doesn't mean equities are about to tumble into an immediate death spiral.

The BoAML team says history suggests a "last gasp" rally is likely.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/what...-worry/11415984
Attached File(s)
Attached File  11417236_3x2_700x467.jpg ( 32.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 12:17 PM
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Posts: 6,076
Thanks: 2185


Australian unemployment rate steady as economy surprises with 40,000 extra jobs
QUOTE
Key points:
The ABS estimates 41,100 jobs were added in June, almost three times what economists generally expected
But the participation rate rose again to a record high of 66.1 per cent, meaning unemployment remained stuck at 5.2 per cent
Job ads figures point towards a future slowdown in employment growth, with many economists expecting unemployment to rise

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/unem...s-data/11416880



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 09:55 AM
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Posts: 6,076
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Wall St share markets plunge 3pc after bond market sends US recession warning

QUOTE
Wall Street suffered its worst trading day of 2019 as investors took notice of a warning sign for a potential US recession, and Australia's market is set to follow.

Key points:
The interest rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds drops below the two-year rate in a phenomenon called the inverted yield curve
The last time this happened was shortly before the GFC
In response, ASX futures have plummeted by 132 points
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 800 points to 25,479, or 3 per cent, led by a sell-off in major banks including JP Morgan (-4.1pc), Citigroup (-5.3pc) and Bank of America (-4.7pc).

This is a new record for the Dow, as it was only last week that its 768-point drop was considered its "worst" session of the year.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq indices also fell off a cliff, dropping 3 per cent each.

Market snapshot at 7:00am (AEST):
ASX SPI futures -2pc at 6,403, ASX 200 (Wednesday's close) +0.4pc at 6,596
AUD: 67.47 US cents, 55.95 British pence, 60.56 euro cents, 71.46 Japanese yen, $NZ1.05

US: Dow Jones -3.1pc at 25,479, S&P 500 -2.9pc at 2,841, Nasdaq -3pc at 7,774
Europe: FTSE 100 -1.4pc at 7,148, DAX -2.2pc at 11,493, CAC -2.1pc at 5,251, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.2pc at 3,284
Commodities: Brent crude -3.8pc at $US59/barrel, spot gold +1pc at $US1,516.09/ounce, iron ore +1.6pc at $US90.72/tonne


QUOTE
The US President also said "we are winning, big time", referring to US-China trade war.

"China is not our problem", but rather "our problem is with the Fed" and its interest rate policy," he said.


rea dmore - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/dow-...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 10:47 PM
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-tr...w_theo_homepage

The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, -4.62% traded above the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -5.30% for the first time in over a decade early Wednesday, reinforcing recession worries.

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as i did point out before 2 years /10 years------is the classic bench mark. so it's official , that economy gonna suffer big time months later. and markets gonna dive down first....


raise more cash !!!


Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 10:51 AM
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EB, the (unlisted) Aust Unity Healthcare REIT has been a wonderful performer for years, decades even. Nothing like a precinct in a growth sector, having a focus



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 10:25 AM
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https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/cen...20190813-p52gje

new direction, having so far focused on office and industrial assets, but, given Australia's aging population, Mr McBain was bullish about the sector.

"We were amazed by the healthcare REIT sector in America; it's the second biggest REIT sector and the fastest growing too, so we are raring to put some capital into that business," he said.

=====================================

aging population isn't just in Australia, it is a global phenomenon .... i always think this is the sector that has really good growth future----world wide...not just in Australia..IMHO




Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
 


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