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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
odi01
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:37 PM
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https://themarketherald.com.au/clinuvel-pha...ent-2020-02-26/


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Sherlock1123
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:26 PM
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In Reply To: mattho's post @ Yesterday, 10:52 PM

If you knew, you could write a book on how you did it and get filthy rich that way smile.gif It is the issue with trading in general smile.gif

 
johnnytech
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:25 PM
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When our sister shorted stock, NEA, went down due to bad earnings report, the shorter's bought back a significant amount. With our tanking stock price here, I half expect the shorters to buy back a full percent of the outstanding shorted capital. And frankly they'd be smart to take profit about now.


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mattho
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:52 PM
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In Reply To: PortugueseMan's post @ Yesterday, 10:09 PM

yah I see the same like you descriped... it is always this mass hysteria problem... that all will recover is also my opinion in this field, only question left is: are will still at the bottom or will it fall again 10-20 %.
i am thinking about to build up some more positions but don't really know if the time is right now for that move or better to wait 1 month.

 
Sherlock1123
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:48 PM
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In Reply To: PortugueseMan's post @ Yesterday, 10:09 PM

I'm not an expert nor do I claim to be, but imho the issue with a virus to be able to spread widely is that it needs to have a 'low' mortality; Ebola for instance has a high mortality meaning that the 'hosts' die so fast there is little time to turn it into a pandemic.They just die too soon. Influenza, or Corona for that matter has a low mortality and takes a longer incubation time; so an unaware host can happily spread the virus before noticing he has a disease. So, I agree with you, and appreciate the 'hard' numbers giving some down to earth analysis in the allround panic now starting to appear. Regarding the topic we are in: the same story holds with all the shorting going on the last quarter: in essence nothing fundamental has changed with CUV; so the buying opportunity has only become better. I wish I had sold at the high, I could have had double the amount of shares now, but well, everything gets easy in hindsight.


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PortugueseMan
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:09 PM
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In Reply To: mattho's post @ Yesterday, 07:54 PM

QUOTE
i read a lot of articles yesterday about this situation and the meant the global market will recover in Q2 again... but anyway...


Of course it will. The corona virus (overrated IMO) has a mortality rate of 0,7% to 4% ... fatal to 14% of people over 80... and it is necessary for them to have specific health problems (hypertension, diabetes, etc). With regard to people under 50, the mortality rate drops to a terrible 0.4%! And for children under 10, the rate drops to an absolutely scary 0%!

The media likes to have things to be entertained with. And most people, instead of looking at the science of numbers (which is very objective), prefer to get carried away by hysteria and to believe that this virus will extinguish life on Earth...
What would be really scary would be the spread of a virus like Ebola, with a mortality rate between 50% and 90%.



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royco
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:47 PM
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"cost increases from commercial manufacturing of SCENESSE® implants have been passed on to the Group by its implant contract manufacturer"

80% cost increase for Drug formulation R&D, manufacture & distribution

My guess is that this is not due to an increase in orders for the US market or R&D costs or distribution costs.
My fear is that the contract manufacturer has significantly increased the production price of the implant.
Clinuvel probably has no other manufacturing options available in the short term and so has to shut up and accept it.
Not really clear but it seems it has taken a big bite out of the already thin profits.
Maybe we forgot that Evonik has a monopoly too. (Is that THE contract manufacturer?)


Again just a guess.




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royco
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:29 PM
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In Reply To: arjan1972's post @ Yesterday, 06:57 PM

I wonder why they are so unclear about the investments in the singapore laboratories
"expanded through both a new biological and analytical laboratory"

Not sure but these will not be bringing any production for commercial distribution, just research? Maybe I am reading this wrongly.
So from July the first when the officially open the lab facilities they will be a considerable extra cost while vallaurix has zero income?

I find it highly unlikely that clinuvel management will allow the vallaurix singapore operations to become a significant cost factor in the clinuvel results.
So my guess is that the opening in july will go hand in hand with the announcement/roll out of the first commercial (OTC?) products from Vallaurix.
It just doesn't fit the cautious (financial) management otherwise.

All in all I am glad clinuvel still managed a small profit over the last 6 months while gearing to achieve approval and then to prepare US sales.
I expect the burden on the 1Q20 results to be quite heavy still since the revenues will still be in hibernation modus while the implant production for the US should be ordered/paid with the contract manufacturer in the first quarter to start distribution in the second quarter.
Just my guess.

Painful sp collapse indeed.
Fundamentals have not shifted much. (apart from more investments in future commercial growth)
glta









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mattho
post Posted: Yesterday, 07:54 PM
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it is terrible to see, what happens the last days to Clinuvel stock price.
But it is also terrible what happens with near every other stock on the market.
All went red since monday... terrible how the Corona Virus produce this amount of powerselling in the last 2 days.

I really can't say anthing about, if this is the end or not... i read a lot of articles yesterday about this situation and the meant the global market will recover in Q2 again... but anyway...


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seeva222
post Posted: Yesterday, 07:21 PM
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In Reply To: arjan1972's post @ Yesterday, 06:57 PM

I want them to invest, but Where are the investments going? To the US roll-out? I’m all for a cosmeceutical play, but let’s scoop up the markets we’ve already made first.

 
 


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