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China the monster.
triage
post Posted: Oct 17 2019, 07:27 AM
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Really strong interview by Kyle Bass of Robert Spalding, who was defence attache at the US Embassy in Beijing and who has penned a book on his assessment of China and the Chinese Communist Party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl5279dWqGs

I consider Scott Morrision to be a fool, and his defence of Gladys Liu by claiming any examination of her activites to be "racist" and offensive to 1.4b Chinese and over a million ethnic chinese Australians only confirmed that to me. His response was a word perfect rendition of the CCP's main diversionary tactic.

(h/t to Timmeh at MB)



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 7 2019, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE
China — or, rather, the Chinese regime — is in trouble. Tuesday's gigantic parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic looked like something out of the late Brezhnev era: endless military pomp and grey old men. Hong Kong is in its fourth straight month of protests, marked and stained by this week's shooting of a teenage demonstrator. The Chinese economy is growing at its slowest rate in 27 years, even when going by the overstated official figures.

Meantime, capital is fleeing China — an estimated $US1.2 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in the past decade — while foreign investors sour on Chinese markets. Beijing's loudly touted Belt and Road Initiative looks increasingly like a swamp of corruption, malinvestment and bad debt. Its retaliatory options in the face of Donald Trump's trade war are bad and few.

And General Secretary Xi Jinping has created a cult-of-personality dictatorship in a style unseen since Mao Zedong, China's last disastrous emperor
- Brett Stephens; New York Times

... put that way, is it a lumbering beast, prone to collapse? That would have to be the US wish, though any such reversal won't be silo'ed. Messiness; almost guaranteed,



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 1 2019, 06:20 PM
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Prez Xi must be happy with the 70th.

USSR fell apart at 69. (Officially 1922 to 1991; though the 1917 revolution(s) was the start and it was all over by 1989)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 9 2019, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE
In the second quarter of this year, official Chinese data showed economic growth of 6.2 per cent, close to Beijing’s target and within a percentage point of what it has reported every quarter for the past four and a half years.

A few months earlier, satellites monitoring Chinese industrial hubs suggested parts of the world’s largest trading economy were contracting. An index of Chinese industrial production created by a multinational manufacturer was pointing to lower growth than official figures. And a web-search index used to gauge how many workers return to their jobs after the Lunar New Year holidays was down sharply from a year earlier.

Beneath China’s stable headline economic numbers, there is a growing belief among economists, companies and investors around the world that the real picture is worse than the official data. That has analysts and researchers crunching an array of alternative data -- from energy consumption to photos taken from space -- for a more accurate reading.

Their conclusion: China’s economy isn’t tanking, but it is almost certainly weaker than advertised. Some economists who have dissected China’s GDP numbers say more accurate figures could be up to 3 percentage points lower, based on their analysis of corporate profits, tax revenue, rail freight, property sales and other measures of activity that they believe are harder for the government to fudge.

China, whose GDP topped $US13 trillion last year, is still growing, and the alternative data points to that. It indicates the deceleration is happening in areas such as manufacturing. In many cases, alternative indicators have previewed the path of official data and show the depth of the challenges Chinese authorities face....
WSJ
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...d7a7c76e55bbf63



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 16 2019, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE
"So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed. You don't see it in the China-reported GDP growth numbers yet. I suspect that sooner or later it will be visible”

Magnus Nicolin, CEO, Ansell Ltd




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 21 2019, 01:57 PM
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Debt... The bigger monster

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-...enya/ar-AAEA94x



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


triage
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 09:47 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM

nip - as was pointed out on macrobusiness this would be more of a Bear Stearns moment than a Lehman moment. Just as the US government bailed out Bear Stearns the Chinese have bailed out Baoshang Bank. The Lehman moment broke the dam wall because the authorities refused to bail them out causing a massive systemic shock.

I like how they said that Baoshang Bank had been reporting non-performing loans at only 2% until the muck hit the fan.


Anecdote time: Many years ago I had a meeting with the boss of a second tier Chinese financial entity who insisted that they had absolutely no non-performing loans. Knowing that his firm was based in a part of China that just had a real estate bust I quizzed him on the claim but he refused to budge. Afterwards one of the locals explained to me that if the financial entity did not insist that borrowers pay them back then the loans would not be classed as non-performing even if no repayments had been made. Moreover the rumour was that this financial entity had close working relationships with associates of the PLA and the provincial government so it had virtually an unlimited source of funds (from the provincial government) and had no wish to offend the PLA associates by asking them to repay the loans. No doubt China has tightened up a lot since then but I suspect that a lot of these financial entities would fold the moment various Chinese governments withheld their backing for them.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM
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A Lehman moment?

QUOTE
Key points:
- China's central bank has pumped $125b into the financial system following the collapse of the Baoshang Bank

- The collapse triggered the first ever intrabank default in China, strangling credit to small banks and driving up borrowing costs

- There are fears the tighter credit conditions will further hit a slowing Chinese economy

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/b...ection=business



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 10:23 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM

Good point nip. Back in 1989 it was the visit by Gorbachev of the USSR to Beijing in mid May that caused the Chinese leadership to play nice for a while. They even kept Zhao Ziyang on as General Secretary of the Communist Party for Gorbachev's visit but within days he had been effectively purged and it had been decided to impose martial law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Sino-Soviet_Summit



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM
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While Beijing is publicly ­arguing the [extradition law] issue is one for the Hong Kong government, it its making its views of the situation on its southern border crystal clear.
QUOTE
“Any civilised society ruled by law cannot tolerate illegal ­behaviours that devastate peace and tranquillity and defy the law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.
(lol) (don't mention Huawei)

- any (temporary) back down by Beijing is merely a cosmetic nod to the upcoming G20 meeting.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
 


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