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Foreign Currency, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 05:28 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 30 2019, 05:13 PM

Also in the article..
QUOTE
... despite some countries like China and Russia moving out of dollar-denominated assets for reasons both political and economic, the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency

- no mention of those two cowboy states as alternatives; Rule of Law still amounts for something.

Whatever happens, things will happen slowly. I think the article was trying to point out it's not all weighted one way, and US dominance / hegemony is waning.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 05:13 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 30 2019, 04:09 PM

Trouble is, if people cycle out of the USD , what are they going in to??
USD is the langua franca in many countries. I can't see what currency will replace it.
There is nothing else out there. No matter how much the Chinese huff and puff, the yuan will never replace the USD.
Its supposed to be happening any day for the last 15 years, and its no closer now.
It would require a level of trust between governments or blocks of governments for any other currency to become paramount.
You only have to look at history to see how well cooperation between Nations has turned out.
Its every man/woman for himself/herself, despite the rhetoric.
Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 04:09 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 30 2019, 03:43 PM

whoa old fella. I thought it was more about cycles, and the only Doomsday suggestion related to the US Dollar.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 03:43 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 30 2019, 02:43 PM

Yeah, and the world coming to a climatic end in 12 years as per AOC, or the doomsday clock hits 12 midnight, or maybe someone will produce a net positive fusion reactor, or one of Nicholas Taleb;s black swans alights on the financial markets. Maybe Erlich might actaually be right and the population bomb will do us all in. Or maybe the glabalists win the battle over the the rest,. What about China imploding due to internal unrest. ( Or the UK, or Russia, or Indonesia, or the US, or even Australai). All of them have a level of internal angst.
There are multiple scenarios, but the unfortunately the venerable Rana doesn't know anymore than anyone else.
Soothsayers are a dime a dozen, and thats about what they are worth.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 02:43 PM
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Doomsday dollar day??
QUOTE
Are investors ready for the ‘Doomsday Dollar’ scenario?
What would it mean if the entire paradigm for long-term investing was to change? The FT's Rana Foroohar looks at the shift in the greenback's profile.


For decades, global savers, and American retirement savers in particular, have been taught that you should put most of your money in an S&P index fund — one that tracked the fortunes of the largest US companies — and then forget about it until you were close to retirement.

Since the mid-1980s onwards, that has been more or less good advice. American multinationals were, after all, the best way to buy into globalisation, and globalisation was very good for the stock prices of many big companies.

But recently, I’ve begun to wonder — what would it mean if the entire paradigm for long-term investing was to change?

Globalisation as we have known it is on hold. This much we know. But what if we were also coming to the end of a very long period of financial repression, in which declining interest rates have masked another, more fundamental truth.

America’s place in the world has changed, and so has the growth potential of its corporations. If that is the case, then we may be in for a correction not just in the stock prices of US multinationals, but in the dollar itself. That would have profound implications for investors everywhere — from individual savers in the US to giant pension funds in Europe and Asia.

It’s a scenario that AG Bisset Associates has dubbed “the Doomsday Dollar”. At first glance, the idea of US stocks and the dollar going down at the same time seems unlikely. For one thing, the two often go in opposite directions, with a weak dollar making the exports of many US companies relatively more competitive in the global marketplace, as has been the case in recent years.

What’s more, despite some countries like China and Russia moving out of dollar-denominated assets for reasons both political and economic, the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. As a study last week from the Brookings Institution pointed out, the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has declined by only two percentage points since 2007, while the euro’s share is down six points.

And, as we all know, neither American politicians nor many of the country’s largest companies have covered themselves in glory during that period.

But shifts in the global reserve system take time. Currency movements can happen more quickly — in fact, as Ulf Lindahl, AG Bisset chief executive, points out, the world’s major currencies tend to move up and down in 15-year cycles. According to his calculations, which track currency movements from the early 1970s onwards, we began a new cycle in January 2017, and despite the dollar’s strength since April 2018, that cycle is still intact.

If the thesis holds, the dollar is poised to fall against the euro and yen over the next few years, and by as much as 50 to 60 per cent.

gold? Commodities? investors might also pile into the euro and the yen, which would force US bond yields to rise? That is something that few expect



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2017, 10:37 AM
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JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being "stupid".

The cryptocurrency "won't end well", he told an investor conference in New York, predicting it will eventually blow up. "It's a fraud" and "worse than tulip bulbs."

If a JPMorgan trader began trading in bitcoin, he said, "I'd fire them in a second. For two reasons: It's against our rules, and they're stupid. And both are dangerous."

Bitcoin has soared in recent months, spurred by greater acceptance of the blockchain technology that underpins the exchange method and optimism that faster transaction times will encourage broader use of the cryptocurrency. Prices have climbed more than four-fold this year - a run that has drawn debate over whether that's a bubble.

Bitcoin slipped after Dimon's remarks. It was down 2.1 per cent as of 2.30pm in New York.

Last week, it slumped after reports that China plans to ban trading of virtual currencies on domestic exchanges, dealing another blow to the $US150 billion cryptocurrency market.

Tulips are a reference to the mania that swept Holland in the 17th century, with speculators driving up prices of virtually worthless tulip bulbs to exorbitant levels. That didn't end well.

In bitcoin's case, Dimon said he's sceptical authorities will allow a currency to exist without state oversight, especially if something goes wrong. "Someone's going to get killed and then the government's going to come down," he said. "You just saw in China, governments like to control their money supply."

Dimon differentiated between the bitcoin currency and the underlying blockchain technology, which he said can be useful. Still, he said banks' application of blockchain "won't be overnight".
=========================

not sure where to put it.

"In bitcoin's case, Dimon said he's sceptical authorities will allow a currency to exist without state oversight, especially if something goes wrong. "Someone's going to get killed and then the government's going to come down," he said. "You just saw in China, governments like to control their money supply.""

that's the point-------NO Govt, will allow "someone" print their currency.

 

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nipper
post Posted: Aug 30 2016, 01:09 PM
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probably better to drop this here than in the AUD discussion thread (despite Mick importing a plane)

Foreign exchange and global payments

Small businesses boosted by trade and payments technology
QUOTE
Australia's international trade is growing and bringing more - and smaller - companies into importing and exporting.When DFAT's annual "Composition of Trade" publication was first released in 1964, total two-way trade was valued at $6.1 billion and constituted 28.7 per cent of gross domestic product. In 2014 two way trade was valued at $669.2 billion and 42.3 per cent of GDP.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics finds that as of 2013, more than 18,000 small businesses exported goods and services, representing more than 42 per cent of all exporters by number, but 0.5 per cent of exports by value.

As the economy leans more to trade-centred businesses – including merchants on global online marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon – businesses need faster, cheaper and more convenient ways of transacting internationally, and not just in trade tariffs, shipping and customs clearance, but in foreign exchange of currency.

The new push is towards fintech companies specialising in foreign exchange and global payments, offering online and phone-based platforms from which business owners can send and receive payments in a variety of currencies, make hedges and have real-time visibility on exchange rates.

Most of the smart forex solutions have an integration option with enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems such as Xero and technology is pushing information and strategies into the hands of business owners who 10 years ago would have had to rely on their trading bank or form their own treasury inside their business.

In Europe and the US, "peer to peer" (P2P) players have emerged, in which smart technology matches buyers and sellers of various currencies, rather than finding an intermediary – such as a bank – that buys and sells the currency on customers' behalf. The P2P matching systems eliminate the intermediary and reduces the costs by up to 90 per cent, because there is no buy-sell spread taken by the bank or forex provider. The better known of these include Midpoint, and TransferWise which has Apple IOS and Android functionality.

The downside of P2P foreign exchange matching is that they usually limit their transactions to high-volume forex "routes" such as the British Pound-US Dollar, Euro-USD, so the operator has funds it can match and offset in both currencies. Sudden volatility can disrupt the system and some closed trading for the day of the Brexit result.A notable Australian business using technology to empower the SME and smaller corporate market is OFX. The listed business is not a deposit-taking institution (ADI) but it has built a single platform that allows clients to send and receive in most countries in all major currencies, 24 hours a day.

"We've been building a single global platform for 18 years," says OFX chief executive, Richard Kimber. "It's a really sophisticated model but simple for the clients."

The challenge of taking the largest, most complex and volatile market on earth and making it simple and accessible to businesses needing to buy and sell currencies, is no easy task says Kimber. "This has been a sustained cycle of investment in the technology," says Kimber, who has held senior positions at Google and financial services companies in the UK and US.

The OFX financial and technology model is at the point where it is being rolled out to other territories such as Europe and North America, says Kimber. But he says just as important as the enabling technology, is the financial model: the global foreign exchange market turns-over just under US$4 trillion a day and making it more accessible also requires liquidity, says Kimber. "It's not as simple as building a clever app, although smart technology is a big part of it," says Kimber.

He says some fintech companies using peer-to-peer foreign exchange had closed their trading during the Brexit result because of fears about liquidity – the ability to back customers' positions if too many people want to sell one currency.

"We stayed open because while we are technology-driven, we partner with global banks to ensure we have the liquidity." OFX also sent a team to London during Brexit to oversee trading. Kimber says P2P matching works well in high-volume currency exchange routes until there is sudden volatility and the market becomes asymmetric – many more sellers of British Pounds than buyers, for instance. That's when the clever platforms need liquidity.

"We weathered the black swan events like the 2008 global financial crisis and unpegging of the Swiss Franc [CHF]," says Kimber. "Today we have a greatly expanded 24/7 customer-facing team, and access to a much deeper pool of liquidity from an expanded panel of banking partners. That's what experience does for you."

He says the company's liquidity, built over many years with 12 global and 6 local banks, means OFX guarantees the customer's rate by buying the funds at the time when the customer books the transfer, not when OFX actually receives the customer's money. So OFX doesn't have potentially risky overnight exposure.

He says the ambition to create a system that can be used by customers, in most parts of the world, has lead to a platform where all the hard work is below the surface. OFX exchanges the currency and shifts money around 18 banks, 55 currencies and 190 countries, but the business owner can make their payments with B-pay, and receive funds into the business account they choose.

The technology tie-ins have deepened, including integration with the Xero ERP system, allowing businesses to make global payments from their financial systems. The company has also developed merchant accounts for eBay and Amazon businesses, so payments can go through OFX's forex system, not the bank's default foreign exchange. A company like OFX can transact foreign exchange dealings on major currencies at around 55 basis points, compared to the 300 to 400 basis points typically charged by the large banks.

Another Australian forex specialist, AFEX, uses technology to reduce the costs of trading globally. "The banks charge you fees to manage a currency account with them. We have currency accounts in all the major cities," says AFEX general manager Asia-Pacific Richard Poulton. "So we take out the intermediary fees."

He says AFEX started with three people in 2005 and now employs 105, with 6500 clients in Australia and a global customer-base. AFEX, says Poulton, has used technology to create a customer-facing platform – AFEX Direct – that the client accesses directly. The company partners with fintechs to build a global multi-payment system where a business can upload their beneficiary files direct from a system like Xero and have the payments made automatically.

He says the rise of non-bank forex companies, and their investment in technology, has brought in larger corporates. To offset currency risk, corporates are doing half of their foreign exchange business with their bank and the other half with a company like AFEX. "Because of our systems, we're able to make the transaction inside a day, and deposit the Australian funds in their accounts in the afternoon. A bank can take two days to do the same deal."

AFEX constructs unsecured credit deals with certain clients, for companies with very strong financials, and the company also keeps its fees and costs low. Poulton says large commodity exporters operate on margins as low as 1 per cent and they are focused on forex solutions that offer speed, credit lines separated from their banks, and lower costs.

He also says that while technology is the big driver of accessibility and visibility in foreign exchange, industry specialisation has also been a cornerstone of AFEX's growth. "We've developed expertise in some industries such as agriculture, so we can work with clients on things like seasonality and commodity prices," says Poulton. "In the end foreign exchange all comes back to business factors like profit margin and risk."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 15 2016, 09:34 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 15 2016, 09:14 PM

hey, eb, I just think that a lot of people think that currency movements can be attributed as a consequence to input changes ... but realistically, there are no correlations, let alone causal relationships.

Having never seen action and consequence played out with currency, I find it as successful to take the opposite of the conventional wisdom, and have noted it is often, though not unambiguously, right more often than not.

I quite like Jarrad Dillian - the 10th Man = and his take on things. This week
QUOTE
I remember telling people a few months ago that there was every reason for the Canadian dollar to get weaker, fundamentally speaking—and that it would probably head higher. The following two things can both be true:
  • Canada is experiencing an energy bust and has a housing bubble and is headed for a prolonged period of economic weakness.
  • The Canadian dollar can go higher.
There are a lot of Wall Street people who don't understand this. Someone asked me yesterday about Brexit, what I thought it would do to GBP. The pound would strengthen, I said.

"That makes no sense," he replied. The BOE would have to ease monetary policy to offset a weakening economy caused by exiting the EU. GBP should weaken.

"But," I said, "everyone's been hammering GBP the last six months on Brexit fears, and they continue to hammer it, so when they finally vote for it, everyone will be short and will have to cover."

In fact, high up on my list of trades I want to put on is buying pound sterling about a week before the referendum. It will go up no matter what the result is




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  lgrif  
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 15 2016, 09:14 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 15 2016, 04:31 PM

"If you look at it in a bookkeeping sense, it's because gross domestic savings, everywhere across the spectrum — the political spectrum — has been severely undercut by social benefit increases in virtually every single major country," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/14/greenspan-p...l-problems.html
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never been a fan of big AL but i do agree this point.
though , not sure that "Simpson Bowles" can really solve the problem??{ i guess i'm not smart enough to figure it out} unsure.gif


 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 15 2016, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE
MISBEHAVING CURRENCY MARKETS

This is the subject of the 11 April lead Financial Times editorial. How can the yen have risen given all that the Japanese Monetary Authority has done to weaken it? How can the dollar have fallen after the US alone dared to tighten policy, and has promised to do so again? Are we in the world of Humpty-Dumpty?

Not at all. As we wrote in our essay 20 years ago on "Currency Market Misbehavior" and as we stressed when developing the theory of "Pricing Model Uncertainty (PMU)" a decade ago, currency markets have been and should have been particularly recalcitrant to market expectations. One reason lies in the role of PMU in the context of currency markets.

Recall the fundamental theorem here - the greater the degree to which an asset class lacks a persuasive pricing model that convincingly maps "news" into "price" then the more perverse the market's price behavior will be, often exhibiting trends that make no sense.

In this context, credit-risk-free government bonds have the least PMU. In their case, news about inflation should and does drive the behavior of long-government yields as expected, ceteris paribus. In this minimal PMU case, textbook theory works.

With currencies, however, no one agrees which of some six variables matter how much, when, and why. There is maximal PMU. In plain English, our main point was that, the more that benchmarked traders do not have a compelling model with which to price the news, the more they will simply follow whatever trend gets going. It is rational for them to do so.

Have any readers found it difficult to forecast currencies correctly — even when their bets on the news about fundamental proved correct? I'll bet you have. I sure have. This is precisely the point.
Dr Horace "Woody" Brock is President of Strategic Economic Decisions, Inc., a renowned economic think tank.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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