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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Jul 4 2020, 04:38 PM
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why...2?mod=home-page

i did think of " long EU market / short US market" as good pair trade not long ago
seems these big fundies think of this trade for medium or longer term. rolleyes.gif

do think of DAX for long trade if one has bullish view!! imho



 
tombeet
post Posted: Jul 3 2020, 01:51 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jul 3 2020, 10:05 AM

When a election is linked to the stock market performance you are always going to get a uneven playing field.


cheers

Tom.


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early birds
post Posted: Jul 3 2020, 10:05 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20200703-p558ly


Recent central bank actions mean capital markets are no longer "free", according to Bridgewater Associates's Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund.

"Today the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks and the coordination with the central government," said Dalio, speaking at the Bloomberg Global Asset Owners Forum on Thursday (Friday AEST).

As a result, "capital markets are not free markets allocating resources in traditional ways".

======================

kinda take the words out my mouth ..............
capitalism and economic 101 all can throw out of windows

doing less watch more from sideline might be wise...imho



 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 2 2020, 11:11 AM
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more from Don S
QUOTE
We're at the stage of the investment cycle where, in times past, many investment advisers would be quoting with enthusiasm a comment John Templeton had made many years ago:

The investor who says this time is different … has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.

Templeton was alerting investors to the dangers of the recurring view in markets that, because the big influences on investments are seen to have changed fundamentally, the future for investors will be very different from the past.

Some things are different, some are familiar

For young investors, I should point out John Templeton was an outstanding investor and fund manager—and a generous philanthropist—who did much in the 1950s to set up and popularise managed funds. In 1999, Money magazine called him arguably the greatest stock picker of the twentieth century.

And like Warren Buffett, John Templeton had studied at Yale under Benjamin Graham, the great teacher of value investing. His 16 rules for investment success, first outlined in 1933, also included his famous aphorism:

Bull markets are born of pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

These days, many investors believe that COVID-19 has profoundly and permanently changed how investment markets work. In my view, this prevailing sentiment is over-stated: some things will be different while others will stay familiar.

COVID-19 is the worst pandemic in a century and the first to occur in our now highly globalised world. The initial panic was heightened when some major health institutes projected multiple millions of deaths, and the future course of the pandemic is highly uncertain.

By early March, COVID-19 was already bringing about the quickest and deepest economic downturn in history, and one which would worsen as lockdowns and social distancing requirements were introduced. Around the world, governments and central banks announced an unprecedented easing in fiscal and monetary policies.

In five weeks from 20 February, average share prices plunged more than a third from record highs. Between 23 March and mid-June, much of the heavy drop in share market indexes was recovered, mainly at times when rates of new infections from COVID-19 in the US and Europe were falling. Share markets have been volatile and unusually uneven by sectors and across individual stocks.

As well, the pandemic has worsened the already tense relations between the US and China, and contributed indirectly to social unrest and riots, notably in the US.

John Templeton frequently reminded investors that share markets have a long history of over-reacting, both in the tough times and when investors turn optimistic. And Howard Marks, deservedly now one of the most-quoted by Australian investors, recently reminded us:

the most optimistic psychology is always applied when things are thought to be going well, compounding and exaggerating the positives, and the most depressed psychology is applied when things are going poorly, compounding the negatives. This guarantees that extreme highs and lows will always be the eventual result in cycles not the exception.

Three reasons it's not just the Fed

As well, the long-familiar view 'Don't fight the Fed' has had another airing. Certainly, the switch to a more positive sentiment in stock markets in late March owed a lot to the Fed's aggressive programme of buying bonds. The further uptick in stock markets during June was attributed to the Fed's direct purchases of a wider range of corporate debt including low-rated borrowings.

But investors seem to be exaggerating the role of the Fed. This time around, relatively little attention has been paid to at least three other influences that affect share prices.

One is the massive fiscal boosts most countries have implemented, which will likely be extended on only a slightly reduced scale into 2021.

Two is that the early indications that the hit on global GDP from COVID-19 will be milder than expected earlier provided there's not a second wave of infections in Europe and the US. High-frequency data suggest both the US and Australian economies have passed the low points of their slowdowns. Retail sales in May rose by 18% in the US and by 16% here.

Three, it appears to this elderly scribe that there is another familiar reprise. It's that this time any recovery in overall economic conditions won't be V-shaped but instead will be more configured like an L or a W. Similar comments were made during economic slumps in 2009, 2003, the second half of the 1990s, 1983, the 1970s and even in Australia's recession of 1961 (which at the time was said to mark the end of our post-war prosperity).

What to watch

Market sentiment will likely continue swinging widely in coming months. Gloom will re-appear whenever, for example:
...the pandemic gathers momentum...well-liked companies report unexpectedly weak earnings
...a cluster of reports is released with disappointing economic figures.
But share prices could well resume their bumpy recovery as investors recognise the global economic slump is somewhat milder than was feared and expected, particularly if the fiscal boosts are tapered rather than suddenly removed. Of course, share markets could move up noticeably if a vaccine is discovered.

Investors should reflect on John Templeton's advice when the prevailing market view is 'this time it's different' and also bear in mind another of his investment principles:

Don't panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after.


Don Stammer



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2020, 10:18 AM
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battle of the big boys. !!
Can take many forms, and the bigger the market cap, the greater the gyrations. I have always thought tax-loss selling is over by now because that is domain of the smaller players. But big fundies/ instos, often they can window dress by selling winners to make the short term results look glamorous.

All you can do, eb, is watch the momentum, the licks of trades going through regularly as the bots nibble away at the other side?




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Jun 29 2020, 09:40 AM
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In Reply To: henrietta's post @ Jun 29 2020, 09:36 AM

any ideas H as how to take advantage from those big fundies adjust prices?? unsure.gif

that would be nice creamy top for two sessions short term trading.. tongue.gif



 

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henrietta
post Posted: Jun 29 2020, 09:36 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 29 2020, 09:03 AM

QUOTE
i guess stocks will have some erratic moves at last two sessions of end of financial year


Just however the bigger funds want to adjust prices.

Cheers
J



--------------------
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 29 2020, 09:03 AM
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The ASX will be dominated by end of month, quarter, financial year window dressing, and profit-taking. Perhaps they will even each other out. The window dressing will include end of financial year tax selling. With two days to go the ASX 200 is down 10.8% for the year and 11.6% year to date. But it is up 21.9% in the quarter so far and 2.6% for the month of June.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/06/29/mar...erable-quarter/

i guess stocks will have some erratic moves at last two sessions of end of financial year. unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 27 2020, 12:51 PM
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-swa...6?mod=home-page

“We are printing money like there’s no tomorrow,” Taleb said, referencing the Federal Reserve’s efforts to ease the financial pain of the epidemic by delivering trillions of stimulus to the market. The Fed also cut interest rates to a superlow range of 0% and 0.25% back in March, and may not have a lot of room to further ease the economic pain of the viral outbreak and other problems that could arise amid this crisis.

“And COVID seems to be there even if the pandemic…dies down, you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,” he said.

Hedge funds that are designed to benefit from tail risks have enjoyed a remarkable run-up in the age of COVID-19.

==============
big bear's view.

make some sense as usual !!




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early birds
post Posted: Jun 24 2020, 06:52 PM
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Shane Oliver – My take on life in Australia during a recession

Going into a recession is bad news. When the economy goes backwards, spending contracts, the jobs market gets tougher, wages go down – the list goes on. This period ahead has come as a shock to many Australians, but there are some things worth noting that might make it easier to bear.

Australia has been battling through a calamitous start to 2020 so far. We kicked off the year with devastating bushfires, which were already detracting from growth in the first quarter. February saw the beginning of COVID-19 disruptions to the local economy, starting with travel bans and moving to a lockdown from mid March which meant some sectors – like retail, tourism and hospitality – had to grind to a halt.

This accounts for negative growth in the March quarter, and the worst is yet to come in the June quarter results, meaning Australia is likely in its first recession since 1991, when Bob Hawke was prime minister and Paul Keating was treasurer. Many Australians weren’t even born then, and for those who were, it’s been nearly 29 years of growth since.

How this recession compares to 1991
This isn’t a typical recession. A typical recession is preceded by a boom – inflation goes up, the central bank tries to control it with higher interest rates, and we have a bust. The situation preceding this recession was almost the opposite – growth was low, interest rates were at record lows.

Because most of the economic damage has been caused by a disruption in the form of the coronavirus shutdown, and we haven’t had the classic build up of excesses you’d normally see before a recession, we should be able to re-start the economy a bit faster than we did in 1991.

Spending power is still in the economy – people have been restricted from spending because of lockdowns, not simply because of a lack of desire or confidence to spend. This means there is pent up demand, which can find a home as restrictions continue to ease.

In addition, there are a number of factors that have allowed Australia to fare relatively well compared to other countries throughout the pandemic, which provide hope for recovery:

Australia’s management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic has seen it ranked second in the OECD, behind New Zealand, for virus control. Its ability to mitigate and suppress the virus has allowed governments to relax some of the social distancing restrictions and shutdowns earlier than expected, which is good news for the economy.

In relation to stimulus from the government, Australia has among the highest rates of direct spending for stimulus, as opposed to loans in the world. Whilst the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stated that it would be “extraordinarily unlikely” for cash rates to be cut to negative in Australia, the RBA has reiterated that it remains committed to do what is necessary, such as additional quantitative easing, to ensure Australia is positioned well for a recovery.

Australia appears to be well placed compared to other countries. Even with the March quarter being negative, this result is still a better outcome when compared to the rest of the world given the US declined by 1.3%, Europe contracted by 3.8% and Canada fell by 2%.

Important to remember: risks remain
There are still risks that could derail the good momentum. The main risk is the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 infections which could have a devastating effect if the economy was to be shutdown again. During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, the reopening of trade and the relaxation of restrictions of public gatherings led to a significant wave of illness and death. In saying that, of the countries we are monitoring at time of publishing, it’s only Iran that is experiencing a true second wave. Hopefully, a strong regime of testing, quarantining and case tracking along with continuing social distancing and hygiene rules will keep a second wave at bay.
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bit of long wing stuff, but worth take one's few minutes i reckon!!!




 
 


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