Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

3 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 >   
 
  
Reply to this topic

Interest Rates, Local interest rate discussions
nipper
post Posted: Dec 9 2017, 05:46 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


QUOTE
Inside the bond markets a hugely significant event may have been underplayed in recent days: Australian two-year government bonds now pay less than US bonds for the first time in 17 years.

Put simply, this puts pressure on the RBA to lift rates even if the economy remains ridden with pockets of weakness, especially softer residential property prices and low consumer spending.

A lift in Australian official interest rates that does not correspond with wage growth would deepen the weakness in house prices, extend the malaise in consumer spending and further depress the retail sector already feeling the heat of the arrival of Amazon




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 04:04 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 6 2017, 10:58 AM

Meantime, we saw "the race that stops a nation" thinking about other matters; this first Tuesday of every month had the RBA leave monetary policy on hold (as they have since August 2016); the widely expected decision comes after mixed signals on the domestic economy in recent weeks.
QUOTE
Retail sales and consumer price data disappointed, but surveys of consumer and business confidence improved and employment and international trade data exceeded expectations.

At the same time, US economic growth and manufacturing data have beaten expectations, the IMF revised up its global economic growth forecast, the Australian dollar has fallen 2 per cent, crude oil has jumped 14 per cent, copper is up 7 per cent and nickel has surged 25 per cent.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 6 2017, 10:58 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,304
Thanks: 1305


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 5 2017, 10:49 PM

Move on, nothing to see here. Interest rates are not going anywhere soon.

The Reserve Bank board has kept its cash rate on hold at a record low of 1.5% for the 13th consecutive month, amid a host of signs that the economy is picking up. Car sales data for August showed yet another rise as sales of commercial vehicles picked up strongly.

"The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time,” Governor Phillip Lowe concluded his usual post meeting statement with an unchanged outlook.

Figures out yesterday on the trade accounts (via the current account data for the quarter) and government finances) showed stronger than forecast growth - offsetting the weak data on company profits and business inventories the day before.

For that reason some economists are saying the June quarter GDP figures later today could show quarter on quarter growth of 0.7% and 1%.

That’s despite a 6% slide in the terms of trade in the June quarter, which will negatively impact national income.

The post meeting statement from Governor Lowe was more upbeat than previous missives have been. The RBA seems to be more confident the economy is doing better than previously thought. The statement was more direct and less qualified.

"The recent data have been consistent with the Bank’s expectation that growth in the Australian economy will gradually pick up over the coming year. The decline in mining investment will soon run its course. The outlook for non-mining investment has improved recently and reported business conditions are at a high level.

"Residential construction activity remains at a high level, but little further growth is expected. Retail sales have picked up recently, although slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain future growth in spending.

"Employment growth has been stronger over recent months and has increased in all states. The various forward-looking indicators point to solid growth in employment over the period ahead. The unemployment rate is expected to decline a little over the next couple of years.”

The news had no impact on the value of the Aussie dollar - despite post meeting statement pointing to the difficulties the rising currency posed for the Australian economic recovery.

Wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although stronger conditions in the labour market should see some lift in wages growth over time. Inflation also remains low and is expected to pick up gradually as the economy strengthens.

"The Australian dollar has appreciated over recent months, partly reflecting a lower US dollar. The higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to the subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.”

Car industry sales figures for August showed a better than expected outcome with a record figure for the month. It was the 4th monthly increase in a row.

The August result of 96,662 was 1.8% more than for the same month last year and continues the industry’s steady growth year to date, with a 0.6 per cent increase over the first eight months of 2016.

Industry sales over the eight months to the end of August totalled 788,968, compared with 784,380 for the same period in 2016.

Comparing the August outcome with that of the corresponding month in 2016, sales of small SUVs grew significantly by nearly 23%, and medium SUVs by 14% Light passenger cars also showed firm growth with a 7% rise.

Light commercial vehicles were also strong contributors to the August total. Sales of pick-up and cab-chassis 4X4s (favoured by business and small tradies) jumped 23% over the same month last year, and two-wheel drive models increased by 2.7%.

Every state and territory except Tasmania saw increased sales over August 2016. The ACT showed the strongest growth at 9.4%, followed by Western Australia with a 4.2% increase, Queensland (+3.5%), Northern Territory (+2.6%), Victoria (+1.7), NSW (+1.1%) and South Australia (+0.1%). WA and Queensland were the states most impacted by the mining downturn with demand dropping sharply in both states in the past year or more.
==============================================

i agree. aussie rate won't move any time soon. if there is a move ---the direction would be up {time at late next year} imho



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2017, 10:49 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


and in breaking news, RBA holds rates steady

Key Quotes
  • "The recent data have been consistent with the bank's expectation that growth in the Australian economy will gradually pick up over the coming year," Governor Philip Lowe and his board said after leaving the cash rate at 1.5 percent Tuesday, as expected by markets and economists. "The outlook for non-mining investment has improved recently and reported business conditions are at a high level."
  • "Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are signs that conditions are easing, especially in Sydney," Lowe said in the statement. "Residential construction activity remains at a high level, but little further growth is expected."
  • "Wage growth remains low," he said. "This is likely to continue for a while yet, although stronger conditions in the labor market should see some lift in wages growth over time."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 26 2016, 11:47 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


Headline consumer prices rose faster than expected thanks to a surge in fruit and vegetables, triggering a rise in the Australian dollar as traders all but wiped out bets on future interest rate cuts.

The consumer price index rose 0.7 per cent in the September quarter after increasing 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

The annual CPI rate quickened to 1.3 per cent from 1 per cent.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 2 2016, 09:54 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 19 2015, 11:10 AM

Interest Rates (RBA cash rate is now 1.50%)

"We haven't seen interest rates be influential for some time now"
- Peter Birtles, CEO, Super Retail Group

"Recent rate cuts might have had some impact but I don't think we've seen the same impact that we might have when interest rates were higher"
- Richard Goyder, CEO, Wesfarmers

"If consumers get a little nervous when rates are so low they may start wondering about the strength of the economy"
- Hilton Brett, CEO, RCG Corporation

"Nobody cares [about lower interest rates]. It's like an ant on a log who's been given a steering wheel going down a river. The log is just taking him down river"
- Mike Kane, CEO, Boral




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Dec 19 2015, 11:10 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 17 2015, 06:59 AM

QUOTE
So much for funnymentals
... other factors at work (and too much money sloshing around)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...on-roils-market

Investors digested the impact of the BOJ's actions, and asked: Is that it? The enhancements to asset purchases were judged to offer very little in the way of extra stimulus. Some also said the moves showed human traders won over algorithm-based robots, saying the computers had been set up to react to any mention of expansion.

"Don't get me wrong, algos can help move quickly on headlines, but they're sometimes bad at interpreting fundamental facts," said Simon Pianfetti, a senior manager at the market solutions department at SMBC Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. "I waited until the market calmed down. As soon as the details were clear, the market retraced quite a lot."



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
arty
post Posted: Dec 17 2015, 08:26 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 13,078
Thanks: 3381


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 17 2015, 07:20 AM

True, but until it happened, the telegrams had always been considered economists' speculation.
And we all know how accurate economists' speculations usually are... devilsmiley.gif hypocrite.gif

I haven't perused every detail of Bloomberg's clever "Fed Eve" predictions:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-talking-about
This time, somebody got at least the presentation right.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 17 2015, 07:20 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,308
Thanks: 1945


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 17 2015, 06:59 AM

you could hardly say the Fed decision was poorly telegraphed



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 17 2015, 06:59 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,684
Thanks: 616


The FED increases rates for the first time in 9 years.
So what does the AUD do??
It goes up!
So much for funnymentals.

Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


3 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 >

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING