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ABC, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 08:27 PM
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Posts: 6,130
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 1 2019, 11:42 AM

Updated chart - may have bottomed? Although still showing strong shorting activity - as at 2nd August, 2019 total shorts = 2.31%. SP currently $3.33
QUOTE
Wed 7th Aug, 2019 1,734,090 651,723,127 0.26% 2,463,763 70.38%
Tue 6th Aug, 2019 2,543,133 651,723,127 0.39% 4,943,997 51.44%
Mon 5th Aug, 2019 1,727,483 651,723,127 0.26% 2,685,118 64.34%
Fri 2nd Aug, 2019 2,347,408 651,723,127 0.36% 4,236,729 55.41%
Thu 1st Aug, 2019 5,004,745 651,723,127 0.76% 7,921,044 63.18%
Wed 31st Jul, 2019 6,167,633 651,723,127 0.94% 12,353,646 49.93%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=abc
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 02:40 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 1 2019, 02:39 PM

FWIW - Macquarie rates ABC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform

QUOTE
Macquarie had already set its forecasts below Adelaide Brighton's prior guidance range on concerns over Queensland demand, but new guidance is lower still, given weak demand in SA and Victoria as well, leading the broker to cut forecasts a further -22%.

The broker had expected a lower dividend, but now no interim will be offered.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing concerns over earnings visibility. It's not just weak demand that is the issue, the broker believing the business model may need to be reconsidered. Target falls to $3.75 from $4.80.


Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $3 from $4 previously. Ditto Credit Suisse . Citigroup at $3.30 - https://www.afr.com/property/residential/ad...20190801-p52crp



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 02:39 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 1 2019, 11:54 AM

Those might be a good short biggrin.gif All three went down following the ABC ann. CSR and BLD saw shorts up substantially yesterday

CSR shorts - yesterday - Wed 31st Jul, 2019 2,401,348 497,930,651 0.48% 5,157,161 46.56%
Total shorts @ 26/7/19 = 8.04%
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BLD shorts yesterday - Wed 31st Jul, 2019 3,839,457 1,172,331,924 0.32% 18,200,722 21.10%
Total shorts @ 26/7/19 - 1.09%
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FBU shorts yesterday - Wed 31st Jul, 2019 226,048 853,347,141 0.02% 662,595 34.12%
Total shorts @ 26/7/19 - 1.36%
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 11:54 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 1 2019, 11:42 AM

yes, there are a few articles about ("Construction Boom is Over"), saying this is the precursor for BOR, CSR and Fletcher, plus others (Brickworks, even Reliance?) dependent on the recently extinguished residential boom. Infrastructure /civil doesn't deliver as well, and rising input costs for materials is adding to the squeeze.

ABC did revise 30%: I doubt the others will to such an extent.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 11:42 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 31 2019, 09:11 PM

Notable short alert yesterday (as expected)
QUOTE
Wed 31st Jul, 2019 6,167,633 651,723,127 0.94% 12,353,646 49.93%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ABC

SP currently down another 4.1% @ $3.395
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 31 2019, 09:11 PM
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Posts: 6,130
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 4 2017, 08:52 PM

Adelaide Brighton's 'vicious cocktail'
QUOTE
Adelaide Brighton warned its underlying net profit would fall to $120-130 million this calendar year — a 37 per cent drop compared to the $190.1 million profit it earned last year.

In a statement to the ASX, the company blamed "further softening of conditions in the residential and civil construction markets" as the main reason for its earnings downgrade.

It also pointed the figure at "continued competitive pressure" in Queensland and South Australia and "sustained increase in raw material costs".

This was the second profit downgrade from Adelaide Brighton in less than three months.

In early May, the company told investors to temper their expectations, as this year's profit was likely to be 10-15 per cent lower than last year's $190.1 million.

That led to Citi's building materials analyst Daniel Kang downgrading Adelaide Brighton's stock to "sell" two months ago.

"A vicious cocktail of an accelerating housing downturn, intensifying competition and higher raw material costs" triggered the company's profit warning, Mr Kang said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/cons...ection=business
Total short positions as at 25th July, 2019 = 1.65%. Surprising short positions were not higher
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=abc
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 4 2017, 08:52 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 13 2017, 03:04 PM

Updated chart.
SP seems to be travelling in the right direction once more
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=abc
Attached Image






--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 13 2017, 03:04 PM
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Posts: 6,130
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QUOTE
DOUBTFUL DEBTS PROVISION
Adelaide Brighton (ASX:ABC) advises that it has identified certain financial discrepancies which
relate to transactions under which a small number of customers may have underpaid for product
supplied to them
. The Company is investigating the matter fully, including the possible
involvement of an employee of the Company, with the assistance of forensic accountants KPMG
.

While the investigation is still in process, based on the information currently available, it appears
that there may have been deliberately hidden underpayments by customers over a sustained
period, which may have a negative impact on FY17 EBIT currently estimated to be up to
$14 million, less the impact of any recoveries which may be made. Pending completion of the
investigation and subject to any recovery action, it is likely that an additional provision for doubtful
debts of $14 million will be made.
No material cash flow impact is expected.

The matter was identified under Adelaide Brighton’s existing compliance and risk management
systems and processes. The Company is strengthening these further in the light of this matter.
The Company has reported this matter to its auditors and will co-operate with relevant authorities
as appropriate as the investigation proceeds.

Excluding the one-off impact of this issue (which the Company will be taking action to recover),
Adelaide Brighton confirms guidance for full year 2017 underlying profit after tax (excluding
property) of between $188 million and $198 million.

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 19 2014, 03:07 PM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Nov 19 2014, 01:44 PM

Sell your soul to the devil.
Or at least mortgage it.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
alonso
post Posted: Nov 19 2014, 01:44 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Nov 19 2014, 12:14 PM

Morningstar has a hesitant buy on them, but at the same time says they will continue in a bearish trend??
The longer term chart looks positive to me and solid consistent divs, all that you look for in a hold.
Used to hold them and find it hard to get over this thing about expecting to buy them for less than they are now.
But the sp is going up from medium term lows.
If I could raise some cash from something else I'd be tempted to join you.



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith
 
 


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