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THIS IS AFRICA, News that could impact ASX listed companies who operate there
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 20 2019, 03:46 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 19 2019, 11:13 PM

Interesting read and also this map of Cabo Delgado showing the location of the oil&gas projects and the conflict so far
Can Mozambique Shield Its Energy Investments From Escalating Terrorism?
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/can-...rorism-security

Renamo “Junta” threatens military action if Mozambican government refuses to renegotiate
https://clubofmozambique.com/news/renamo-ju...gotiate-139600/
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 19 2019, 11:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 17 2019, 04:51 PM

“Military Junta” tries to seize control of Renamo – AIM report
QUOTE
The dissident faction within the main Mozambican opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, the self-styled “Renamo Military Junta”, has appointed its leader, Maj-Gen Mariano Nhungo, as the new leader of Renamo – a move certain to be rejected both by the official Renamo leadership and by the Mozambican government.

The Military Junta went ahead on Saturday with a meeting, which they termed an “Extraordinary Council” of the junta somewhere in the bush of the central district of Gorongosa to seize control of Renamo.

In a speech by Nhongo, circulating on the Internet, he declared that Ossufo Momade was no longer President of Renamo and, since there were no other candidates, he was now the “Interim President of Renamo”.

He thus scrapped the results of the Renamo Congress held in January, in which there was a contested election, won easily by Momade. Nhongo claimed the Congress had been infiltrated by “traitors” who formed an “illegitimate majority”.

He suggested that Momade had always been working for the ruling Frelimo Party because he was a soldier in the Mozambican army when he was kidnapped by Renamo in 1978. Both of Momade’s predecessors, Andre Matsangaissa and Afonso Dhlakama, had also once been in the army (but were cashiered for theft).

Nhongo claimed that Momade “deceived us all and for all these years. He never stopped obeying the Frelimo Party as one of its agents”.

He claimed that the peace agreement Momade signed with President Filipe Nyusi on 6 August is “an agreement for unconditional surrender”.

“Momade has sold us out to Frelimo”, he declared. “He and the other sell-outs have sold us in exchange for a few personal favours they have received. They dream of occupying minor leadership positions in future”.

After the 6 August signing, Momade was summoned to meet with the Military Junta, and he refused to go. So the Junta set up an “Extraordinary Military Tribunal” to try Momade for treason.

“We think there is all the evidence and no doubt of the act of treason”, said Nhongo. The Junta appointed a Renamo lieutenant to act as Momade’s defence lawyer “but he had no arguments to defend him. So we declared Lt-Gen Ossufo Momade guilty of treason, and stripped him of his rank and all his positions”.

Nhongo said a future Extraordinary Congress of Renamo would “ratify this sentence and decide on the expulsion of Ossufo Momade as a member of Renamo”.

Nhongo declared the peace agreement null and void. “It does not bind Renamo. It was signed by someone who had no authorisation from the Renamo National Council to sign it”, he said.

Nhongo said the “Extraordinary Council” had instructed him to demand the postponement of the general elections scheduled for 15 October, and the holding of “a new voter registration without fraud or gross manipulation”.

All Renamo forces are to be moved “to safe places, considering that the traitor Momade has delivered the coordinates of the bases to the enemy”. Despite this threatening move, Nhongo demanded that the government respect in full the current truce.

The meeting also demanded the release, by force if necessary, of Renamo fighters “currently held prisoner on the orders of the traitor Ossufo in Inhaminga and other bases occupied by the traitors”.

The Junta is also ordering the Renamo Parliamentary Group to vote against the law ratifying the peace agreement when it comes before the country’s parliament, the Assembly of the Republic, next week.

The Junta also wants the governments of Portugal and Rwanda, and the International Red Cross to negotiate safe passage for Nhongo, or his representative, “so that he can negotiate a genuine national understanding that reflects the will of Renamo”.

There is not the slightest chance of these demands being met. Nyusi has made it very clear that he regards Momade as the leader of Renamo, and thus as his negotiating partner. The government will not throw away a peace agreement that was carefully negotiated over more than two years, first with Dhlakama and then with Momade.

Foreign governments, who watched the signing of the 6 August agreement, are most unlikely to accept the Junta’s demands. Nor is there any sign that Renamo parliamentarians have any sympathy with the Junta.

The major uncertainty is how much support the Junta has among Renamo fighters. If they have significant support, then the planned demobilisation and disarming of the Renamo militia could be disrupted.

Source: AIM

https://clubofmozambique.com/news/military-...-report-139583/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 17 2019, 04:51 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 11:25 AM

The "peace" didn't last long rolleyes.gif and it's a couple of months before the elections when issues arise

QUOTE
“Two days after the signing of the Maputo Peace and Reconciliation Agreement, acts of violence and political intolerance occurred in various parts of the country,” Renamo spokesman Jose Manteigas told a press conference in Maputo.

José Manteigas cited four cases, in Tete and Zambezia provinces in the centre of the country, and in Inhambane and Gaza in the south.

“In Maflaucha village in Tete, the homes and property of Marcos Cangachipe Chissassa, Johane Langitoni Jovuyabema and José Ailaqui, all of them members of Renamo, were burned down the dead of night,” the spokesman said.

https://clubofmozambique.com/news/renamo-de...reement-139560/




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 11:25 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 8 2019, 07:48 PM

Peace deal ignores economic and social reintegration of demobilised men – Thomashausen
3:50 CAT | 14 Aug 201
QUOTE
South African lawyer Andre Thomashausen said on Monday that Mozambique’s peace agreement is “a simple surrender to the authorities” which ignores the Peace Fund created in 2014 for demobilised combatants.

“The agreement simply proposes a surrender of Renamo’s staff and weaponry to the authorities, to be coordinated by certain joint committees, within deadlines that I think are unrealistic, just as in 2014,” the South African lawyer and professor told Lusa in an interview.


Andre Thomashausen was an adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Mozambique, Aldo Ajello, during the UNUMOZ mission between February and December 1994, and was the author of the [Renamo] proposals and the final document leading to the Rome General Peace Agreement.

The agreement was signed by then Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano and Renamo’s Afonso Dhlakhama in October 1992 in the Italian capital, under the mediation of the Community of Santo Egidio, Italy.

Thomashausen stressed that “there is nothing specific” in the new Mozambican peace agreement on the economic and social reintegration of former Renamo fighters, which, in his opinion “is a fundamental responsibility in a society seeking to rehabilitate their national unity.”

“It is surprising that now in 2019 the parties did not even remember the creation by law of the Peace Fund in 2014, with exactly that responsibility. This Fund, which never became operational, could have now been valued and revitalised,” he said.

“In this regard, the agreement of 6 August actually makes only one rather vague reference in paragraph 1 (E), namely: “Mobilising internal and external resources to facilitate the socio-economic reintegration process of demobilised Renamo armed elements under the Memorandum of Understanding on Military Affairs,” the expert on international law points out.

“The carelessness regarding the issue of taking responsibility for the future of the demobilised is manifest,” he said.

Thomashausen says that, for the combatants who surrender their weapons, the agreement “unfortunately offers nothing but an amnesty”, adding that the recent agreement “is a bad deal” for Renamo.

“Renamo receives in return the opportunity to win some possible positions as provincial governor, which by the drafting of the new legislation will always be controlled by a Special Commissioner of the central government ministry. A risky plan, considering that nothing suggests that the next elections will be less fraudulent than the previous ones,” he said.

The lawyer noted that “Protocol 4 to the 1992 Agreement on Military Affairs, in addition to providing for the formation of new military forces to be recruited from Frelimo and Renamo, provided for joint responsibility for the appointment of armed groups. private or irregular.”

“This is missing in the 2019 Agreement, although it could have been very pertinent as private armies are operating, terrorising peasants in Montepuez and Cabo Delgado,” he said.

In Thomashausen’s opinion, the recent Peace and Reconciliation Agreement signed between the Mozambican government and the opposition Renamo party “is a public-private agreement” that “must obey the rules of administrative law and the Constitution [of Mozambique].”

Despite the criticism, the analyst considered that the country would prove able to “cement the truce” and live with less uncertainty, which may help to win the trust of potential domestic and foreign investors, while underlining the lack of consensus within the opposition.

“[The deal] is consensual at the elite level. But it will have to win the minds and spirits on the Renamo bases,” he said.

“When in 1992 Frelimo’s political dream was defeated by the imposition in the Peace Agreement of multiparty democracy and the principles of a modern rule of law, Renamo managed to define its political identity as the “Father of Democracy” [in Mozambique]. But Frelimo clung to power and its privileges,” he said.

Today, the economic, social and political exclusion of Mozambicans who do not belong to the Frelimo ‘family’ continues to foment violence [in Mozambique],” Thomashausen said.

Source: Lusa

https://clubofmozambique.com/news/peace-dea...shausen-139291/

No doubt why some are refusing to disarm



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 12 2019, 08:12 PM
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Africa rising
QUOTE
A lot of resource investors stop listening to corporate presentations when they learn the company’s project is in Africa.

More often than not the country risk of exploring for minerals in the “dark continent” (as Africa was known to 19th century European explorers) is just too big a gamble for retail investors’ hard-earned capital.

Development projects are hi-jacked by rebels, or over-run by artisanal miners. Operating mines get expropriated by governments that can’t resist the temptation to raid a foreign company’s coffers. And African miners frequently see their profits reduced by corrupt officials intent on re-negotiating royalty contracts.

All of these things are true, yet in the long run, Africa cannot be ignored. The hammer-shaped continent is expected to drive global growth over the next several decades, as populations there climb, but dwindle elsewhere.

“About half of the world’s fastest-growing economies will be located on the continent, with 20 economies expanding at an average rate of 5% or higher over the next five years, faster than the 3.6% rate for the global economy,” Brahima Coulibaly, director of Brookings’ Africa Growth Initiative, wrote in its 2019 Foresight Africa report.

The growth as always will be driven by population expansion.


QUOTE
Conclusion

The rise of Africa is interesting on its own, but when paired with the rise of China, the prospect for the West is actually quite scary. On the one hand we have a continent that is teeming with humanity and getting more and populated every year. Its citizens want what we as North Americans have. We have written about the scarcity of resources and the potential for conflict. Combine that with existing tribal tensions in Africa that have at times exploded into civil wars, and you have a powder keg just waiting for someone to light the match.

Then factor in China, which is playing Africa’s new economic dragons with the skill of a Chinese violinist. It’s a beautiful plan, really. Make loans to poor developing nations that want to become part of BRI, using US dollars, while the USD is still the reserve currency. The loans are paid back using offtake agreements for raw materials from these countries, which become part of the largest trading block in the world, thereby further distancing China from the West.

Remember, Russia is part of BRI. The Kremlin and Beijing have already signed billions worth of energy deals, and are talking about a new payments system that allows for trade in rubles and yuan, excluding the US dollar.

Devalue the yuan, so that China’s new south Asian trading partners can buy competitively priced Chinese goods, further enslaving them with crippling trade deficits.

China was already building the New Silk Road when Trump got elected and started poking the Chinese dragon with the stick of escalating tariffs. The trade war just hastened what China was planning on doing anyway: cut the US out of its trading loop.

It has the resources, the technology and the population to lay siege to the United States for a long time. China’s in no rush to settle the dispute.

Meanwhile, hit back at US companies as retribution against the United States which dared to stand in the way of companies like Huawei and ZTE. Build the biggest manufacturing base the world has ever seen, embargo their critical metals, effectively starving their supply chains, and watch them slowly wither and die, as the US continues down its path to self-destruction.

read full article -> https://www.aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2...rica-rising.htm




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 9 2019, 11:42 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 8 2019, 11:39 PM

Agree - and the spoils are mostly in Cabo Delgado - particularly the gas - where the attacks are targeted. https://zitamar.com/cd-insurgency-attack-locations/

This province is the one to keep an eye on during the upcoming elections - both parties will want to win this one. They both want a slice of the spoils they think are coming

The added issue will be if the remnants of the old disgruntled, and still armed, Renamo Military Junta join up with Islamists.

The fact this peace deal is "secret" is also a real issue - what are the two parties hiding? Sweetheart deals to line their own pockets? One hopes the 52% of Mozambicans who live below the poverty line will be the beneficiaries of the revenues that should flow from the Anadarko project, but my bet is very little will.





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


nipper
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 11:39 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 8 2019, 07:48 PM

I suspect this is "fighting the last war". The Islamist tide form the North, exploiting weaknesses and societal divisions, yes, but beholden to a new and alarming agenda, will wipe any post-colonialist vestiges away. And when it happens, turning back is nigh impossible. Just another iteration of 'fighting for the spoils' behind the veneer of ideology.

(meantime, I wouldn't contemplate holding SYR)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 07:48 PM
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Some good news for Mozambique - hopefully third time lucky - this is the third peace agreement signed - the first in 1992 then again in 2014. Elections are due in October that will be the test. There are still some of the old “Renamo Military Junta” rejecting the cease fire and refuse to disarm for as long as Ossufo Momade remains the President of Renamo

QUOTE
President Filipe Nyusi and Renamo head Ossufo Momade signed a peace accord on Wednesday, 6 August, in Maputo, in a public ceremony attended by various international dignitaries, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini, and the president of the African Union Commission Moussa Mahamat.

This follows the signing of a ceasefire by Nyusi and Momade on 1 August in Chitengo, in Gorongosa National Park, Sofala. Momade had remained in Satunjira, the Renamo base on the Gorongosa mountain, but as soon as he signed the ceasefire he flew to Maputo to launch his campaign for the 15 October presidential election. Nyusi has been campaigning for more than a month.

Both documents are secret and the details are not known – a point underlined today in the press. (O Pais, Carta de Mocambique) They involve integration of some Renamo fighters into the national army and police, and demobilisation of others. The first 50 Renamo fighters were formally demobilised at a ceremony in Satunjira on 29 July, although they will remain temporarily at Satunjira. At the ceremony, Momade said the deal covers 5221 Renamo fighters. (STV 29 July, AIM 30 July)

This is the third peace deal. The first was the General Peace Agreement signed in Rome on 4 October 1992, by the then Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama and President Joaquim Chissano. The second was the agreement on a cessation of hostilities signed by Dhlakama and Chissano’s successor, Armando Guebuza, on 5 September 2014, which remains secret.

It appears that many issues have not been resolved in the negotiations. Nyusi is pushing for the demobilisation to be completed before the 15 October elections, but this is impossible. Only 6 of the first 50 being demobilised handed over weapons, and it appears that as in 1992 there is a tacit agreement that Renamo can retain weapons. It is likely that Renamo will retain armed men until after the installation of new governors early next year and Renamo is convinced that some real power has been given to Renamo governors.

Two issues remain unresolved. Renamo has been demanding the integration of Renamo fighters into SISE, the security services, and Frelimo continues to resist this. The settlement is often referred to as an “elite pact” and it is clear that the Renamo leadership expects significant monetary compensation. This will probably remain secret, but at the 29 July ceremony Momade pointedly said that for reintegration “be a reality” the government and the international community must “honour the promises of support they made”. The European Union’s Frederica Mogherini, announced the availability of about $56 million to finance the implementation of the agreement.

ALSO READ: EU allocates € 60 million to implement Mozambique peace agreement – Mogherini

Meanwhile Renamo dissidents who call themselves the “Renamo Military Junta” are rejecting the cease fire. The head of the Junta, Mariano Nhongo, who held the rank of major-general in Renamo, told reporters in Beira, via a telephone link, that his followers would not disarm for as long as Ossufo Momade remains the President of Renamo. Nhongo said he had called a conference of Renamo fighters for 17 August, in order to elect a new Renamo president. (Carta de Mocambique, 5 Aug)

One person died and one was injured in an attack by unidentified armed men against four vehicles on 31 July on the N1, the main north-south highway, in Nhamapadza in Maringue district. In an apparently separate attack, a bus from “Nagi Investments” carrying 53 passengers from Nampula to Beira was struck by bullets, but none of the passengers or crew was hit. Nhongo denied that his group had anything to do with it. “When I want to start a war, I’ll let you know,” he said. (AIM, 2 & 5 Aug)

An Amnesty Law was unanimously passed by parliament (Assembleia da Republica) on 29 July. It grants amnesty for all those accused of crimes against state security or military crimes in the context of the military hostilities between the government and Renamo from 2014 to the present. Thus it grants amnesties to members of the government hit squads to killed Renamo officials as well as to those from Renamo who attacked road traffic.

This is at least the fourth amnesty law approved by Mozambique and it is opposed by Human Rights Watch because no one is held responsible for political killings and disappearances by both sides. “The amnesty law passed this week is a betrayal of the thousands of victims of Mozambique’s conflicts. Parliament ignored families long awaiting justice, as well as support and compensation from the state. Sadly, this law will do more than ensure impunity for past grave crimes. It will also likely pave the way for future abuses.” Unabridged: Broad amnesty in Mozambique likely to fuel future abuses – Human Rights Watch

“Prospects for a Sustainable Elite Bargain in Mozambique: Third Time Lucky?” is the appropriate title of a good summary of the history of post war negotiation and conflict by Alex Vines, head of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, London. The report is HERE.

“The October elections will be the first immediate test of the August agreement. If Renamo wins at least three provincial governorships, will it be enough to seal a new sustainable elite bargain?” asks Vines. “Corrupt elections could threaten the sustainability of the emerging elite bargain… The conduct of credible elections requires the political will of Renamo and Frelimo leaders to moderate their hard-liners and prepare for compromise. The results that emerge are unlikely to be fully democratic, but hopefully they will be partly democratic and improve political accountability and pluralism.”

https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mozambiqu...-hanlon-138747/

Research Paper
Alex Vines
Africa Programme | August 2019
Prospects for a Sustainable Elite Bargain in Mozambique Third Time Lucky?
https://clubofmozambique.com/wp-content/upl...eMozambique.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 27 2019, 02:45 PM
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In June this year Islamist State claimed responsibility of the attack that left several soldiers dead

In July a police officer was among seven people killed. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for that attack.

The Mozambique Government is blaming everyone else - artisanal miners to fake entrepreneurs who he claims are funding youths to carry out attacks

Intelligence Consulting firm ESISC is reporting another attack claimed by Islamic State took place yesterday
https://twitter.com/EsiscTeam/status/1154768384996904960



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 27 2019, 01:49 PM
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New investigation from International Consortium of Investigative Journalists - https://www.icij.org/investigations/mauriti...te-a-tax-dodge/

Treasure Island: Leak Reveals How Mauritius Siphons Tax From Poor Nations To Benefit Elites
Based on 200,000 files, Mauritius Leaks exposes a sophisticated system that diverts tax revenue from poor nations back to the coffers of Western corporations and African oligarchs

Mauritius Leaks is a cross-border investigation that reveals how one law firm on a small island off Africa’s east coast helped companies leach tax revenue from poor African, Arab and Asian nations.

Noticed an ASX listed gold miner among those named - KCN who were asked for comment but as yet have not provided. Minemakers ASX-MAK (now AEV) had a listing there, but now "defunct" Another name was Irish Kenmare Resources plc who operate a mineral sands mine in Mozambique - they have supplied comments (as per spreadsheet below)

Interesting to see also Bob Geldof (Live Aid) got a mention

The Big 4 Accounting Firms, of course, involved providing their services, as well as some of the big international Banks

Full list -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2P...VKz3SgM/pubhtml



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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