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MARKET OUTLOOK - Healthcare, Pharma & Biotech, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Jan 18 2020, 08:32 AM
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Seems to be a lot of work going on) in antimicrobials. Here's another (that may take the wind out of the sails of others aspirants)

https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/lights-...ound-dressings/

QUOTE
Infections are a serious threat that can have fatal consequences, especially following surgery and during wound treatment. Biomimetic hydrogels with “built-in” antimicrobial properties can significantly decrease this danger.

In the journal Angewandte Chemie, scientists have now introduced a gel that is activated by red light to produce reactive oxygen compounds that effectively kill bacteria and fungi .....




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 10:51 AM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Jan 15 2020, 09:51 AM

we are many ... but (what) have we learned? smile.gif


I do sell the duff ones, but not soon enough




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
alonso
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:51 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 15 2020, 09:48 AM

Nipper, how many of us have learned the hard way with that sector?



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:48 AM
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Biotech sure is a sector the 'guns' like to short
QUOTE
The latest Bronte Capital letter says biotechnology stocks are a haven for stock market scammers and will remain an attractive hunting ground for its short selling strategies.]The letter says biotech stocks are like lottery tickets that “either result in a therapeutic drug and (maybe) a lot of money or it doesn’t".

"Almost everyone, including most of the experts, are shooting in the dark. Biotech offers promoters the chance to sell worthless or nearly worthless lottery tickets to gamblers.”

Bronte Capital says it has shorted hundreds of biotech stocks and in the process it has learned from its mistakes in order to improve its trading flexibility.

The letter describes a typical problem when shorting a biotech.

“The biotech that announced (overhyped) ‘positive’ results and raised money has:
a) gone up a lot (making it a better short),
b) has a freer borrow because more shares have been issued to the public (making it a better short) but
c) has also raised cash which will make it last longer before it goes to zero (making it a worse short),” the letter says.

"We are not even sure how to weight these factors even though we have a database of several hundred past biotech shorts. “As our systems get better, we wish to fine-tune all of this. It won’t change the big-picture mix in our portfolio ... but it should hopefully be able to increase our returns or reduce our risk".




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2019, 05:36 PM
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Sohn stock pick: Regal’s Phil King - SHORT PolyNovo (PNV ASX)
QUOTE
There’s a lot of expensive stocks out there and one only has to look at the ASX: If the FAANG stocks look toppy trading on a multiple of 5 times sales, what then to make of the Aussie tech stocks trading on 13 times?

Well, “the biggest bubble in the Australian stockmarket today is Australian biotech,” King says, christening them the PPANCs (PolyNovo, Pro Medicus, Avita Medical, Nanosonics and Clinuvel.)

Regal is actually long Avita, but “we needed the vowel”. Healthcare stocks in Australia are prone to bubbles, King warns. We don’t have the big pharmaceutical companies like Europe, and Australians aren’t that good at valuing them.

Passive investing has surely helped fuel the rally, as four out of five PPANC stocks have joined the ASX 200.

PolyNovo is singled out as having the most downside. “We think the competition’s well established, the company’s still losing money and it’s never delivered on expectations,” King says, adding: “there’s no room for disappointment”.

Mark Twain once said a mining company is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.

An Australian biotech is a medical lab with a good salesperson on top.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 17 2019, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE
Momentum among stocks in the healthcare sector is tipped to continue in 2020 as a range of small and mid-sized biotech and medical device companies hope for clinical trial results before the year's end.

The healthcare vertical has been the best performer – up 34 per cent – of the ASX 200 indices this calendar year, and the bulk of the gains have come in the second half. The rise has been led by stocks such as CSL, Cochlear and Nanosonics, putting the sector ahead of other top performers such as IT and consumer discretionary stocks.

Morgans senior analyst Scott Power said the rise in the big stocks was filtering down into the mid and small-cap segment, as investors took a renewed interest in the life sciences space.

"In this low growth world, if you can deliver good growth, you're being rewarded. The sector is definitely positioned very well for 2020," Mr Power said. "The smaller end of town is very speculative and it tends to come in cycles. There was a lot of interest in resources 24 months ago, then it moved to technology and anything software-as-a-service (SaaS). Now we're seeing money flowing into these life sciences names.

"We're seeing interest in e-health, anything digital and anything to do with artificial intelligence or medical applications with an SaaS model. Then, companies with near-term catalysts are also being closely watched ... catalysts will attract eyeballs and if they're successful, multiples will go up immediately; if not, they come down pretty quick."

Businesses that have already been re-rated on account of strong clinical trial results or sales growth include Polynovo, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals, Nanosonics and Opthea.

Among the companies Mr Power expects will release clinical trial results or announce news of regulatory approvals before the end of 2019 are Antisense Therapeutics, Volpara Health Technologies, ResApp and Novita Healthcare...

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20191103-p536zt



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 12:19 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Sep 30 2019, 10:54 AM

yes its nice for a fund manager referring a CEO to a journo to allow them to talk their own book. (Nothing specific or market sensitive, mind you, just the feel good story)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 10:54 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM

Mark Diamond ... unusual name for a fat opera singer ... (when someone with vested intersts says that their company is at fair value ....)



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE
I have been in the sector for 18 years as a CEO and I don’t think that I have seen this level of significant and sustained value creation across multiple and diverse businesses," Antisense chief executive Mark Diamond said.

"For many years it was felt that local biotechs were chronically undervalued compared to their US peers, and so the only way to get fair value was a move to list on an US exchange, so I think this is really a very exciting development for both local companies and investors alike to see such outcomes on the local bourse."
...



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM
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Small cap healthcare stocks surge to billion-dollar plays.

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20190929-p52vx1
QUOTE
A series of successful phase two clinical trials and increasing commercial adoption in the US market for Aussie biotech companies have driven the creation of three new billion-dollar healthcare stocks in just a few months.

In the past six months more than $3.25 billion dollars has been added to the valuations of a handful of small and mid cap healthcare stocks like Avita Medical, Opthea, PolyNovo and Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals. The unique momentum in the sector is in stark contrast to a year ago when some significant phase two clinical trial failures resulted in investors turning away from the risky sector.

Speaking to The Australian Financial Review, Bell Potter healthcare and biotech analyst Tanushree Jain said investors were recognising the growth potential of this next wave of biotech success stories, with some like Opthea also considered potential acquisition targets for big pharmaceutical giants on the back of stellar clinical trial results.

"We're now getting companies that are moving out of the research development phase, starting to generate revenue and having commercial products in the US market," Ms Jain said. "Then for companies like Opthea, its re-rating came on the back of a phase 2b clinical trial done out of large centres in the US, Australia and Europe and the results were spectacular. "It reflects a trend that more of the listed life sciences companies are maturing. The more risk that's taken off the table in terms of investment, the more reward you get."

This, Ms Jain said, had flow on effects for the sector as a whole, with positive results improving the perception of the industry. "It's a function of the fact that this is a bit of a specialty field and it's quite technical, so there's not that many people that really understand biotech," she said.

....Post-phase two trials is considered a sweet spot for big pharma companies looking to make acquisitions, as the new therapies or products have already had some rigorous testing and there's data suggesting its likelihood of success. Once stage three trials have been completed, the assets are much more expensive to buy.

There is also another wave of small cap biotech stocks going through stage two trials at the moment which investors could look at closely in the next few years, including Dimerix, Immutep, Starpharma and Antisense Therapeutics....




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
 


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