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Gold, Discussion
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 5 2020, 10:03 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 31 2020, 11:52 AM

Gold and silver both running ahead.
Making me nervous.
Will put some sells in tomorrow and take a bit of profit off the table.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 31 2020, 11:52 AM
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Gold and silver starting a bit of a recovery rally.
Is it too early to see another upside??
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Jul 29 2020, 03:17 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 29 2020, 02:44 PM

of course, there's a story behind the development

Two of the world's largest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation and concerns the government-owned refiner could lose its London accreditation. The black ban follows revelations in The Australian Financial Review that the mint was buying up to $200 million of gold a year from a convicted killer in Papua New Guinea and that child labour and toxic mercury were present in its supply chain....
https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...st-ba...20200724-p55f3v



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 29 2020, 03:17 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 29 2020, 02:44 PM

ddoouubbllee ppoosstt



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 29 2020, 02:44 PM
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Formation of trueGold Consortium

Mine-to-marketplace gold supply chain assurance solution
ASX listed Security Matters Ltd (SMX) has entered into agreements with a wholly owned entity of Perth Mint to form the trueGold Consortium.
trueGold will utilise SMX’s unique molecular marking technology and blockchain platform to launch what it believes to be, the world’s first fully transparent mine-to-marketplace ESG focussed gold supply chain assurance solution.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 28 2020, 01:22 PM
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Profit taking time.
After gold pushed within 20 bucks of the magical 2000, its suddenly dropped 40 bucks.
Silver after climbing to 26.47 high, is smashed back to 24.59.
The big question is, wi;ll it follow suit in the US market overnight??
Nothing in terms of funnymentals have changed, just the sentiment.Reckon they will both head down overnight.
Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Jul 27 2020, 11:52 AM
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gold futures trading at US$1943
QUOTE
I saw an estimate the other day, and I’ve spent hours looking for the source and can’t find it now, that total global financial assets are approximately $350 trillion. Tradeable gold and silver assets are approximately $2.9 trillion, or 0.8% of investable financial assets.
(If any of you can check these numbers for me I will be eternally grateful and you will receive much gratitude in return and maybe even dinner...)

What does this mean? It means that the vast majority of institutions have a tiny, tiny allocation to gold.

We all know the expression follow the money.

Who are the world’s most powerful and influential insiders?

You’re absolutely right, the central banks, and particularly now that they run the world. In fact central banks are the ultimate insiders, the mother of all insiders!

Central banks are increasing their exposure to gold as a way of reducing their exposure to negative yielding bonds and to hedge against a possible decline in the US$.

Furthermore, sovereign wealth funds see gold as an inflation hedge with a low correlation to other financial assets.

Let’s be clear the speculators are massively long gold and silver and it is severely overbought... no doubt about that.

However, can you remember a macro-economic and geopolitical environment as favourable, for gold, as the one we have today ?
Jonathan Pain



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 17 2020, 09:44 PM
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David brady, writing in Sprott Money has a very different take on gold.
He is very bearish on all markets.

QUOTE
Market fundamentals continue to pile up on the negative side. ECB sits on its hands—i.e., does nothing new—and the Fed slashes liquidity, all while commercial real estate loan losses mount, retail mortgage delinquencies soar at a record pace, and the $600/week for numerous Americans ends in two weeks. Throw in an escalating trade and geopolitical war between the U.S. and China and it’s not rocket science to see where this is heading.

However, this does not mean that the converse of being bullish on gold and other PM's.

QUOTE
My expectation is that when stocks fall, precious metals and miners will too, much like they did in March. Falling bond yields are unlikely to stem their decline because inflation expectations will probably drop even faster, causing real yields to rise. That said, I must emphasize again that this will be the last and best opportunity to buy Gold, Silver, and the miners given the helicopter drop and Fed printing to follow soon after, imho. Said differently, when stocks soar ahead of the November election, so do precious metals and miners—and then some.

Switching to Gold, specifically, as the biggest market in the precious metals space… I don’t rule out a test of the 2011 record high before we head down, but as I’ve said, I sincerely doubt we break it on the first attempt, and even if we do, it is likely to be a false breakout.

Multiple negative divergences across all timeframes continue to pile up, and it’s not a question of “if” but “when” they finally weigh on Gold, just as they did in March.


This seems a reasonable proposition, particularly as he says the precedent was set back in March.
It is food for thought, I may end up returning to mostly cash over the short term.

Mick



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Nopoo
post Posted: Jul 16 2020, 03:32 PM
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Gold Junior Updates on $9M Forward Gold Purchase Contract


https://www.guyanagoldstrike.com/news/2020-news-release/280-




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Nopoo
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 9 2020, 12:48 PM
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From GATA
QUOTE
“We are all used to the bullion banks covering their shorts on Comex by waiting until the speculators are over-bullish and vulnerable to mark-downs that trigger their stops. Algorithmic traders go from long to short in a heartbeat as well, and they dump contracts into a falling market, speeding up the decline. We should say at this juncture that the Managed Money speculators are short-term, attracted by futures leverage, and their gold position is often part of a wider risk strategy deployed by hedge funds. They do not intend to stand for delivery. The wider investment world taking strategic portfolio decisions does not often get involved with gold, so the Comex gold contract has been a secular play.

In the non-speculative category, the bullion banks (Swaps) had 56% of the shorts and the Producer/Merchants 44%. Mark-to-market value of the Swaps net short position was $25bn. Of the speculative longs, the managed money category (hedge funds) held 69%, and at 296,106 long contracts it was almost a record. There was a high level of bullishness; easy pickings for the bullion banks, who by the following December drove the price down to $1120, reducing their net shorts to under 50,000 contracts.

It was a game that evolved out of Comex futures being used simply to offset long bullion positions at the LBMA. Over time, bullion bank traders increased their trading position limits, as opposed to their pure hedging activity, making easy money jobbing the other side of Managed Money trades.

Now look at the current situation, with the gold price at decade highs ($1775) and open interest at 561,628 (30 June).

Bullion banks are between a rock and a hard place. For years they’ve been playing the hedge funds as an angler hooks and plays a fish. That game has ceased and there is no easy way for them to get level. For the moment they are trying to put a lid on the price, but the cost has been rising open interest, and therefore rising mark-to-market positions.
The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into large delivery volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility between Comex and the LBMA is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London spot to go unchallenged.

It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeure might have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues.”


The comeuppance frot he Commercial banks scamming the gold price is something I have been waiting for.
Its a bit like the the line from Fiddler on the Roof. "It seems we have been waiting for the messiah for a very long time".
Maybe this time they will finally get crushed.
Wouldn't be bad for the price of PM's either!.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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