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MNB, MINBOS RESOURCES LIMITED
melua
post Posted: Oct 1 2014, 09:40 PM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Aug 8 2013, 08:00 AM

What happened to this? Haven't been following after I was told to give it a wide berth a long time ago.

 
NPH
post Posted: Aug 8 2013, 08:00 AM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Apr 29 2013, 08:28 PM

Peter Richards bailed. Disgraceful.

 
NPH
post Posted: Apr 29 2013, 08:28 PM
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In Reply To: melua's post @ Apr 25 2013, 09:37 AM

Monument Mining is buying CEN for 18 million

The Angolan projects are superior to CEN's assets.

MNB's share of the Angolan projects is 50%.

Then there's Kanzi in DRC, whatever the outcome there is.

But what happened to the strategic partner process?

The assets are some of the best in the junior phosphate sector, but issues in the DRC and management of the company so far has decimated shareholder faith.

 
melua
post Posted: Apr 25 2013, 09:37 AM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Apr 25 2013, 09:00 AM

Some shareholders would have lost more than that. Chump change to him.
Is there any hope for the stock? Your figures looked compelling.

 
NPH
post Posted: Apr 25 2013, 09:00 AM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Apr 25 2013, 08:41 AM

He underwrote the late 2011 rights issue to the tune of $200 000 at 28c. An investment now worth just $14 000

Before that he spent close to 50k buying on market in the 30-40 cent region. Ouch

 
NPH
post Posted: Apr 25 2013, 08:41 AM
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In Reply To: melua's post @ Apr 23 2013, 10:20 PM

Disgraceful. Peter Richards should hang his head in shame for letting this happen on his watch.

 

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melua
post Posted: Apr 23 2013, 10:20 PM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Nov 9 2012, 12:56 PM

Down to 2c. What went wrong?

 
NPH
post Posted: Nov 9 2012, 12:56 PM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Nov 2 2012, 10:23 AM

Updated DCF valuation. Cygnet has discounted the post tax NPV atrrubituble to MNB by 50% to get $50m.

Post tax NPV for Kanzi comes out at $576.2m (375MNB) assuming:

paramaters in scoping study
10% discount rate
corporate tax 30%
royalty 3% to Allamanda

So apply Cignets method of discounting NPV by 50% for country risk gives a value of 375/2 = $187.5m. Add on the 50m form Cacata gives 240m for both projects.

Shares on issue 135 + 6 (director options) + 22 (.14 raising) = 163m

value per share fully diluted $1.50

Say post raising we settle at 15c. We will be sitting at 5% of combined post tax NPV of both projects. Absurd.

As I said to get to Cygnets 50% we will need to trade at $1.50.

If both these projects are off the ground we are talking combined 90m free cash p/a on scoping study parameters.

Bump output up 25% on each project (CAPEX allows for this in SS) and use $200/t and its 125m free cash p/a.

What value will the market put on 90-125m free cash p/a? My guess is probably 5x....450-625m or $2.7 to $3.8 per share.

Even adding another 50% (ontop of 163m) shares gives $1.84 to $2.56 targets.

 
NPH
post Posted: Nov 2 2012, 10:23 AM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Oct 30 2012, 01:10 PM

Yara did the met testwork on Cacata. In April they stitched up a large offtake agreement with IC Potash. Coincidence they did the testwork or are they looking to shore up there phosphate supply through MNB?

A large offtake by Yara or similar would pave the way for a large debt funding package.

You would hope that on such an agreement project would be valued at least 50% of MNB share of Cacata NPV - $80m. Say an extra 35m shares issued as part of deal implies share price 50c on 170m shares fully diluted.

 
NPH
post Posted: Oct 30 2012, 01:10 PM
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In Reply To: NPH's post @ Sep 12 2012, 08:23 AM

Patterson's annual fertilizer book has MNB as the top Phosphate pick. Last years picks which I did not rate at all (CNL and UCL) are rightly not even included in this years report.

No other ASX listed hopeful will beat MNB to production, in fact I don't believe any other play will get near to production in the next five years with the possible exception of RUM.

Still waiting on Kanzi SS.

Strategic partner update must be close. Plenty of interest in Cacata from the industry.

 
 


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