Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

5 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

kiril
Posted on: Aug 4 2019, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Gee where have you been?

2 years ago we were to buy the 75% balance in TSI from CX partners but they would not agree to our price.

Gary the then CEO brought in Jeff to set a new strategy and path forward for the business.

We purchased a Cyber Security business known as Decipher works.

We have more recently bought CloudTen and AWS Cloud partner. Both these businesses have very high synergies.

We are in the process of selling the TSI business together with CX partners.

Both those different holdings are cashflow positive and making profits.

I had previously introduced fundies to the TSI opportunity and none would buy into an entity that had a minor shareholding in the TSI venture.

This has since changed and I know that Jeff has met face to face with a number of these funds and I know the dialogue has continued.

I am genuinely hopeful that the buying of the last 3 trading days was institutional, but at this stage I am not sure.

I have increased my position last week.

End of long story.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Solid buying these last few days.

I think the re-rate is finally upon us.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I miss King Baz. Hope he is well and managed to get out.

So long ago now.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

life in the ole girl yet!!!

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I have spent a fair amount of effort trying to get institutional investors excited by this business.

Fingers crossed this is now starting to pay off.

Well done to Jeff and the rest of the management team.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I hope you are right, but we will see soon enough.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

If this goes as you predict Mark, Oil will go through the roof.

I feel the world has lost faith in the US and the dollar just might drop.

Then inflation will start to rise with zero growth in the economy.....and we will experience Stagflation for the first time in a long time.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 01:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

So much potential here all those years ago and now on deaths door.

Such is the life of a speckie.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 05:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Don't give up Mark, your contribution here is well appreciated.

For those interested, here is summary of how the $22 Trillion in US debt is spread. www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Extract:

The U.S. debt was $22 trillion as of February 11, 2019. Most headlines focus on how much the United States owes China, one of the largest foreign owners. What many people don’t know is that the Social Security Trust Fund, aka your retirement money, owns most of the national debt. How does that work and what does it mean?


Mark, for a number of years I followed your detailed account of why the US was trading whilst insolvent so to speak, due to their unfunded Social Security and Pension obligations, but some how they are still muddling through, and while us Ozzie's are experiencing very sad growth rates some how the US is still seeing in-excess of 3% growth and a stock market that just keeps breaking higher.

It seems there is more money being placed on risk trades right now when every sign says it should be risk off.....but as you have shown that the risk of calling it too early and going against the market can cost you substantially in lost opportunity.....until it doesn't I guess.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some interesting posts here Mark, none of which I was aware.

Be careful mate as I fear for your safety....perhaps you should look to see if there are any men in black sitting in a car across the road from your house.

Sounds like you have moved on from analysing markets to US/Iran relations.

I would hazard a guess that you are 100% in cash awaiting for the imminent Armageddon that awaits global markets before you re enter the equity market.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 08:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi everyone.

I once got so much joy reading Marks and others posts on this thread.

Would love to hear your take on the world right now Mark.

Even a short few lines as a special guest appearance would be appreciated.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 06:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks mongoose, with the 4c out tomorrow i am expecting the market will start to notice what we have been waiting for.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

TSN, my favorite little Microcap.

Just jumped upto a MC of $21m today...yeah.

Owns 100% of 2 profitable businesses.

Will wait to see the 4C in a few weeks and will provide commentary then.

I expect it to rally over the next 2 weeks leading up to month end.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Considering its just me talking to myself, I would like to tell myself that it is finally good to see that buyers are seeing value in this profitable business with such a tiny market cap.

Should be a great 2019.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 12 2018, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I have seen the proposed purchase and I like this deal a lot.

Great to see Jeff delivering on his objective.

Cashflow positive purchase, in a very high growth sector. Love it.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 16 2018, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I wonder if they have the sale sorted....something must be happening as the buying has certainly started.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I have increased my position over the last few weeks and again today.

Am very excited about the potential here.

The revaluation of the TSI holding in the balance sheet is conservative IMO.

Lets hope they get the sale done ASAP and at a much higher valuation.

Must be close now judging by the recent new buying interest.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I thought I would check in with myself since I am the only one here.

I met with CEO Jeff and Gernot one of the other directors in Melbourne 5 weeks ago. They were doing a bunch of private meetings as part of their roadshow to ready institutional support.

I spent around 40 mins with them and got a really good sense of where Jeff is taking the business. I really am supportive of his vision.

On the 16th December Jeff and Gary Subscribed for stock via con note for $670K of their hard earned cash to invest in this company at 1.1c.

This week we issued script to a new investor who is going to be a major business partner of ours raising for $530K at 1.1c.

Jeff outlined to me how they are going about growing our Cyber Security capability by acquisition. He believes that if we are successful in these next few planned acqusitions, we will be the largest Cyber Security business in the country.

Lots to like.

I have been increasing my position, bought substantially last week and a few more this week.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Finally some volume.

I wonder who our new buyer this morning was?

I think 2018 is going to be awesome for TSN.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 04:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Mautty78,

I am hoping we might see that 2c level before Santa arrives.

Lets see what this week brings.

I think Cyber Security is going to be the big theme for 2018.

Kiril.


I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 6 2017, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Captain Kirke almost entirely out. Register getting tighter by the day.

Very soon we are going to see this EXPLODE!!!

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 5 2017, 05:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Back to me talking to myself again on this one.

Great day today, looked like a buyers is there to me, but hey.....I have been wrong before.

I am expecting some big things here.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 4 2017, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Been a while, but this business has changed so much in the last 6 months you just cant go past this stock for outstanding value and opportunity.

Our newish CEO Jeff has done an outstanding job in forming what looks to be a very up and coming Cyber Security business.

I think the next few months are going to be very very interesting.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 2 2017, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The NY Teamsters Pension fund only had 4,000 members so didnt really register any panic among investors.

However when you take into account all the other funds that have been flagged as in trouble, they are talking over 10m people affected by that.

The beginning of the end as K1 predicted? Probably will be able to keep band aids over this a few more years by the looks of things. And then......WATCH OUT!!!

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 23 2017, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Added again this week. Please don't tell my wife.

Happy to buy more of this business.

Interesting times ahead.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 15 2017, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Mongoose.

Its hard not to get too excited about the opportunity here.

I spoke with Gary about the delay, and he makes a good case for why they are slowing things down. From a corporate governance perspective I guess he cant rush in and make such a large purchase based on figures he hasn't been able to qualify.

Not to mention that I would assume if they have in fact found a large funder, they will need proof that the number of transactions are as they were told.

I am currently sitting on the bid a few pips lower, incase someone wants to dump a few more...I am happy to add.

Kiril.

I hold

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 11 2017, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

How economists can say we have got through the trouble and now its all blue sky for the Australian economy is just laughable:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and...209-gu9tyq.html

The only reason the mining boom end isnt driving a major recession our way is because the housing boom across the east coast has taken some of that pain. With that looking like it could slow in the coming 12 months what then for our economy. The recession we are over due to have?

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 3 2017, 06:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Wow what an over reaction. Colleague spoke with Gary yesterday. Things were delayed because of demonetisation. Business still moving forward in the right direction.

Bought a nice parcel in the SMSF yesterday.

Biggest volume day for a long long time.

Into safe hands in my opinion.

Eyes still very much on where this business will be year end. Lots will be surprised IMO.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 28 2017, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Looking forward to an operations update immanently from Gary, hopefully we see one this week.

I would really love to see how we have progressed with SREI. Considering that their business is all about bring infrastructure and services to the rural areas of India, which seems to match nicely with what Modi wants to achieve by bringing banking services to the great unwashed as well.

I am interested in the area of LoRa particularly and hope that this is an area TSI is involved in. LoRa (for Long Range) is among a clutch of narrow band technologies that connect devices cheaply over unlicensed spectrum and vast distances, needing very little power.

LoRa, is a narrow band standard adopted by the likes of Cisco and IBM, where the thumbnail-sized radios that send and receive data sell for a dollar or less.

Dutch enthusiasts are building a global community of open-source LoRa gateways, called the Things Network. Nodes send and receive messages - about a tenth of the size of an SMS - every couple of minutes to once every few hours. *

This article published a few weeks ago brings together what I see as the opportunity here.

http://brandstories.livemint.com/TATAcommu...Governance.html

Specifically:

"With the Government of India picking up pace with the Digital India 2.0 project, it is now the turn of the private sector to play its role in pulling India's far-flung villages closer, and thus increasing farm efficiencies through IoT, supporting subsidy transfers, besides implementing central initiatives such as Swachh Bharat, Clean Ganga, and the Smart Cities program. .

To enable the same, homegrown player Tata Communications has rolled out India's first LoRa network starting with Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore. Following successful LoRaWAN network trials in Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru, Tata Communications and Semtech Corporation have worked together to deploy 35 IoT proofs-of-concept (PoCs) based on LoRa Technology across these cities. The PoCs cover a wide array of applications, including sensors for remotely monitoring air conditioners and safety deposit boxes, energy management systems used to optimize the use of electricity, gas and water, and multiple smart buildings and smart city applications. "Tata Communications' efforts to deploy its IoT network and recruit enterprise customers to develop strong, LoRa-based PoCs for a wide range of IoT applications will help improve the lives of India's citizens," said Francois Sforza, Senior Director of Business Development for Semtech's Wireless and Sensing Product Group."

Sound familiar????

"White label ATMs, or ATMs not tied to any one bank, are a big step towards financial inclusion. A leader in this space, Tata Communications Payment Solutions crossed the 5,000 Indicash ATM mark last year. With 65% of these ATMs already in tier 3 or below markets, the company now aims to triple the number this year."

If Gary and the Indians can be at the forefront of this work, and we already know they have connections with a number of the players mentioned, then we will be looking at a top 100 Australian company in the making here. Amazing opportunity here in my opinion.

Kiril.

I hold. And bought more this week.


*http://www.thanhniennews.com/tech/remote-control-lora-offers-a-cheaper-link-to-the-internet-of-things-64920.html
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 21 2017, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

One single investor decides to sell 6.6m and we fall from 3.2 to 2.5c.....and all this panic that follows.

I took the opportunity to increase my holding again this week.

More shares in very safe hands.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 11 2017, 07:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Kirke almost out now, so expect the supply of selling to dry right up over coming days.

Could see this lift breaking through 4c without much effort when that occurs.

Very tightly held register once Kirke is gone, should see this fly.

I hold.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks for dropping in Mark.

I have been logging in every single day hoping to read your wrap.

Thanks for the post, looking forward to reading your detailed thoughts when ever you have them complete.

Happy New Year buddy.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Dec 27 2016, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Jacsar.

From what I understand all the ATM's are now re calibrated.

The country has had a difficult 6 weeks, and many ATM's are still not operating.

Its been a deliberate move to force the masses into the banking system with the Modi government and RBI providing access to more cash actual ATM's than bank counters.

As we draw near the 50 day completion of the monetization process I am of the view the the RBI will need to extend the restrictions on withdrawals past that date. I think the RBI underestimated the demand and is running hard to catch up, but running out of time, in my view.

Whilst I never want to make money from peoples pain or misfortune, this situation is an absolute game changer for TSI.

Looking forward to seeing the numbers from management. I would bet they will hold them back until the deal is completely lock away and done.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 26 2016, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some much needed consolidation occurring over the last 4 weeks.

I expect DD is now complete on this transaction and we are about to start the next phase of our business growth.

Early Jan will see an EGM to vote on moving ahead.

Mark my words, TSN will be the number 1 best performing stock of 17.

A very exciting journey is about to begin for TSN stake holders.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 21 2016, 05:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi K1, I have missed you so.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

I note 10 year bond yields in Aust and the US have spiked considerably, and commentators are all now saying rates are going to rise in the US and here. Personally cant see how they can allow this.

Your thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Nov 17 2016, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Salts,

because TSN is a 25% shareholder in TSI.

The revenue and profits are captured in TSI. They do not flow through to TSN.

In the next 6-8 weeks, TSN will complete the transaction to purchase the 75% we dont currently own from PE.

That was the deal of the century.

Watch how things change for TSN once we own the balance. I have met with a number of fund managers in the last 12 months in an attempt to get them on the register.

They are all very interested, but their trust deed does not allow them until they have viability of accounts.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 17 2016, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Absolutely, its the managed services platform that offers us the largest opportunity out of the TSI suite of products.

I spoke with Gary in detail about the opportunity there right after the Mphasis deal earlier this year.
It is this capability that is bringing us new opportunities each week that will transform this to a Billion dollar plus business.

Exciting times at TSN.

Market still has no idea.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 16 2016, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Whilst never a place I ever wanted to visit, I have managed to learn a lot about this country as a result of a large investment I have made over the last 2 years in an Australian company managing ATMS in India.

I believe that people here in Australia simply can not grasp the size of the market over there. This is China all over again.

To make money from this opportunity, you need to be select about how you deploy your capital.

I recently met with the Indian management team and was so impressed by their business acumen and depth of skills. They were both ex Citi Group, and recently put together a major corporate transaction without a single investment banker needing to get involved....impressive.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Nov 16 2016, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Nipper, it is a god send for TSI.

We are were doing around 120-130 transactions per ATM per day. Which meant the ATM would need to be refilled once every day. Right now the average ATM is doing 125 transactions every 2 hours so they need to be refilled.....every 2 hours.

Any way you do the numbers, our fleet right now is pumping out 10 TIMES OUR USUAL REVENUE!!!!

The fee is paid not by the customer, but by the Bank.

We are literally printing money.

This will continue for 45 days...and then the large denomination notes will cease to be legal tender.

This means that everyone in India has 45 days only to get all their hidden cash, into the banking system some how.

And then what, a lot of it will stay there providing RBI with liqudity and improved cash ratios.

Then over time as it needs to come out, it does so through our network of ATM's.

This move by Modi is a game changer for our business. I didnt see this coming.

Market doesnt understand our business, the market doesnt understand our market.

An opportunity with this much blue sky just doesnt come across the ASX that often.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 16 2016, 05:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well my first target reached today....3c finally.

Whilst I can see a clear path to 30c, the market needs more information. From a low of .3 only 16 months ago to 3c today. A 10 bagger already.

Just shows the magnitude of returns one can earn if you are willing to roll your sleeves up, meet management, dissect numbers and really understand the depth of an opportunity.

You simply dont get this kind of access in the large cap sector of the market. Whilst the efficient market hypothesis always plays out long term, it is in these early stages when the market simply doesnt understand or just doesnt know....when super returns can be made.

I see a billion dollar market cap here, and that is just the beginning.

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 16 2016, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I agree with Triage.

I have spent 23 yrs in funds management, and I have learned that the people paid to know.....have no idea.

The entire funds management industry relies on DCF to calculate the valuation of the cashflows of a particular business...and yet the majority of funds around the world under perform their index....proof that it is a waste of time.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Nov 14 2016, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some interest is appearing it seems.....but more importantly, looks like selling is exhausted, so buyers have to pay UP!!!!

3c in the next week?

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 12 2016, 06:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Market doesn't care yet.....not many eyes on TSN so no real buying appears, even after an announcement like this.

What an outstanding update.

I bought another 1m this week.

Happy to own as much of this business as I can.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 23 2016, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I must say I actually expected that we would end lower. At the moment all that believe in the TSN story are in.

New buying and the eventual rerate of the share price will only occur once insto buying starts...and I am now certain that will occur shortly.

I had contact with Mohnish this morning.....and just like Gary he is not worried about the share price....he is focused solely on growing this business into something we are all hoping it will become. Not long now.

Awaiting company updates.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 21 2016, 04:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Today was the start of what I believe will turn out to be an epic transformation for TSN.

Today the TSN story has been derisked.....deal done.

I spoke with Gary today, and managed to congratulate our two Indian brothers who will shortly join Gary as major shareholders.....they have done an outstanding job.

I met with them both in Sydney a few months back and they outlined what they are doing with the TSI business, which we are not going to acquire 100%.....very exciting!!!

I have had a number of fund manager meetings over the year and they all voiced the same issue/restriction on their investment mandate. Once we have transparency I am confident we will see the buying everyone has been waiting for.

Gary is heading to India next week with the accounting team that will be conducting DD. I expect this will be wrapped up much sooner than the final date provided. I believe we have bought this for a song, a fraction of what we should have paid....but I am not complaining.

I expect we will see a rights issue that will reward existing holders, and some sort of debt component for the rest.
I told Gary that I am happy to introduce a few of the funds that provide funding for deals like this, as my colleagues and I will do what ever possible to ensure that any substantial investment will need to be bought on market and minimise the cheap stock for friends that we see on so many other raisings.

I wonder how many announcements could not be released because we were in the middle of a corporate transaction? One would expect some share price moving updates are on the way soon.

Kiril.

I hold

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Sep 8 2016, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Whilst for some time now I have felt like I am talking to myself here and am all alone in my belief in this business, the persistent buying of recent time confirms that I am not alone.

They are out there Skully.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Sep 6 2016, 11:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some new interest in this little gem.

Very early days.

With C Group now out, and all large holders being long termers who can see a MC of $1b plus, it is going to be very hard for anyone to take a decent position without it moving many pips.

Awaiting news on a few fronts right now.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 23 2016, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Cop is now out....register is sooooooo tight.

I like.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 19 2016, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hey Mongoose,

I bit late with my update because the ASX announcement confirmed it yesterday....the Indian's bought A$70K between both of them.

Which is not much coin for us, but considering the little the Indians get paid, this was a great show of support from Deepak and Monish....so very happy with that.

I arranged a meeting this week between the Melbourne analyst that put this deal together for TSN, and 2 Sydney fundies.

The meeting went really well.

Apart from what management took up, the majority of this raise went to 5 funds.....and they are all huge names. As a result of those names getting on board, I received calls from other managers/fundies looking to get more information on TSN. That surprised me to be honest.

I am still very confident in this opportunity and have continued to add.

Unfortunately I am pretty much maxxed out cash wise into TSN now, so my buying looks like its now complete.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 19 2016, 12:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

good post Nipper, thanks.

One that I am backing right now in a major way is TSN. View the TSN forum on SS where I have been banging on to myself mostly for the last 12 months.

Me and 2 Sydney fund managers met with the analyst that structured the recent transaction for TSN and is the company adviser on a potential company making deal we are working on right now.

If this comes off....watch out.

Kiril.

I hold...lots.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Aug 18 2016, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Wow I use to love this thread back in 2007.

K1 was going to track these stocks for 10 years.

Looks like most of the contributors are MIA 9 years later.

My pick FSA is still around, but so many aren't.

Must say I have learned so much since those days by investing in small and micro caps.

I certainly miss the contribution K1 made to this site.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Aug 11 2016, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Mongoose.

Unfortunately I am not aware of the amounts they took up.

I met with the Indian CFO and CEO the other month when they were here in Sydney. They both told me that they wanted to increase their position in the company. This raise facilitated that objective.

I had an interesting conversation this morning with a fund manager who contacted me. He had heard who some of the insto's that got on board were and wanted to better understand the business as a result.

Lots of new interest now watching us. Should see some large buying shortly IMO.

Best of luck.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 9 2016, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well I think its safe to say the re-rate is about to begin.

Cap raise put away with Insto's at 1.6c.

Got my hands on a bit of it but nowhere near what I wanted.

The raise was many times over bid, so hopefully with a clear path now to taking out CX and acquiring 100% of the business, Instos will be able to see the full financials and find comfort in entering the register.

The UPI opportunity is what now has me most excited.....with the Indian market size, you simply will not find an opportunity with more blue sky than this.

Should fly on Wednesday when we come back on IMO.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 22 2016, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Looks like the sellers have been exhausted finally.

I took the opportunity today to buy again.

Having met with the management of the Indian business last month, I believe I have a very clear understanding of the business, the opportunity and the blue sky.

When the re-rate happens here, it will be meteoric.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 16 2016, 04:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Sydney is very segmented.

We have bought 3 investment units that settled in the last week or so.

All 3 saw large numbers come through their first open and all 3 were snapped up by tenants on the first viewing.

All 3 were purchased on gross yields around the 4.2-4.45% mark, and with depreciation of around $8k-15k they are all cash flow positive for our investors who have borrowed 100%.

Being selective about the area you buy in being the key.

Kiril

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 13 2016, 08:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

That same report stated that in Sydney unlike Brissy and Melbourne, the new apartments were geographically spread across a number of areas so didn't share the same concentration risk.

You can also see that Sydney's supply for the next 2 years is still below its 5 year average.

Still far more demand here than supply. But stay away from Zetland, Parramatta, Strathfield, Auburn and Kogarah-Rockdale.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 12 2016, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Good morning Triage.

I should have been clearer. It is not whether someone has lived in it or not.

The FIRB strict definition of new is:

New dwelling

Means a dwelling (except commercial residential premises) that will be, is being or has been built on residential land and that:

has not been previously sold as a dwelling; and
either:
has not been previously occupied; or
if the dwelling is contained in a development and the dwelling was sold by the developer of the development—has not been previously occupied for more than 12 months in total.
Note: For when a dwelling is sold, see subsections 15(4) and (5) of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 2015.

See Section 4 of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 2015.


If the first buyer falls over prior to the first settlement, then you can still resell and be ok under the FIRB rules is my understanding (I have been informed by a clients lawyer). Because the initial sale didnt actually settle, it is still officially the stock of the developer until it is actually settled.

Kiril

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 11 2016, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Triage,

If the Chinese fail to complete on their off the plan purchases, then the developer will try to resell the unit, after taking the deposit.

As long as no one has lived in it, the FIRB will still view the unit as new stock, so acceptable for purchase by other non residents......but that train has already left the platform, and the Aussie buyers are no where to be seen.

Hi Early Birds,

I do live in Sydney, and I am involved in a number of property businesses. We have exposure to sales, advisory and finance....so I am seeing first hand what is going on a daily basis.

The Sydney market is fragmented, and there are a few very over supplied suburbs.

However in areas that cover most of Sydney, being developed established areas, there is still substantial under supply.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 10 2016, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"yeah, but if you compare 700 sqm land for sydney and melbourne{ is that close to apple to apple?} it will show you how much premium that sydney have over melbourne."

I would need more information.

In Sydney, the rate per sq metre of land reduces substantially with each 5kms you travel away from the CBD. So we would need to be comparing similarly located suburbs.

Any way, its not Sydney V Melbourne......we have very different supply demand dynamics in all our capital cities right now.

Sydney had an extended period of flat returns, which caused a real slow down in new construction. While all major cities continued to plan/approve and construct new supply, Sydney had an extended period of under building.

Eventually something had to give and finally 3 years ago this boom erupted.

Today, Melbourne and Brisbane are both over supplied whilst Sydney is still short of units....this is a fact.

What has been concerned right now is that no one knows the depth of this fraudulent Chinese mortgage disaster that is gripping our unit markets around Australia.

With all major lenders pulling their foreign lending in the last few weeks....this could be HUGE.

If say 20,000 units around Australia cant be settled in the coming 18 months, then we could watch Mirvac/Stockland and a hundred small developers and builders go under. Our very own Lehmans moment. Then the Banks here will be in real stress just from the contagion.

Think happy thoughts.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 6 2016, 09:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The property market in Australia is so fragmented, its hard to have a discussion which accurately captures one fact across all the many markets.

Sure Sydney has had a great 3 years of growth, but what about the 10 years from 2004 to 2013?

I remember 4 very ordinary years in Sydney where the market was down far more than any agent was willing to admit, either to clients or the press, simply because that is the golden rule for agents....you must NEVER talk the market down....otherwise vendors will suspend their decision to sell. One of those lean years (2013)I sat at a Real Estate Regional meeting of all the principals, and every single agent in that room said in their 20-30 of real estate they have never seen in that bad. Yet the press was reporting how strong property growth across Australia was because Perth was flying as the resource boom was in full swing, and Melbourne was redeveloping docklands and everyone was a buyer.

Today Sydney has been playing catch up. And the statistics......they can be tortured to confess to anything you want them to say!!!

Comparing Sydney average prices to Melbourne sounds like a fine idea, but we are not comparing apples with apples.

Melbourne has a completely different planning code, that allows developers to build dog boxes, whilst Sydney has far more generous minimum unit requirements.
The average size of one-bedroom flats sold off the plan in Melbourne last year fell to just 44 square metres (from 47 square metres),

Two-bedroom units shrank to 59 square metres from 62 square metres.

The rules in Sydney mean one-bedroom apartments must be 58 square metres.

Last year in Melbourne 40 per cent of apartments had a floor space under 50 square metres.

So we are comparing different sized apartments which cost a fair bit less to develop and complete. So of course comparing averages between these 2 cities you will have a differential in value. Once you adjust for the size differential you get a much more aligned average price.

The Sydney market within 15km of the CBD where we exclusively buy for clients, is still very in demand. The crap is not really in demand but high quality properties are still being very well bid.

The major issue is the lack of stock. There really is nothing out there right now. We are usually buying a property or 2 a week for clients whilst last month we only bought 1 property all month.

Lots of investors and owner occupiers hunting around and very frustrated at the moment.

Gross rental yields we are finding are about 4-4.8%pa, and if built in the last 10 years you can pick up $10-$20K depreciation p.a which makes it cash flow positive day 1.

Where else can an investor get that kind of yield without the volatility of equities?

Starting to see a real migration lately of retirees that have finally figured out the financial planner is not going to get them the income they need sticking their life savings into a managed fund, paying 1% a year management fee to the fund manager, 1% advisor service fee, and 1% platform fee.

No income left for mum and dad.

So I think it is these retiree investors that will pick up from where the negative gearing leveraged wage jockey stops. They are not using finance so APRA and ASIC happy....and real estate agents can continue to make repayments on their Audi and BMW's.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 3 2016, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Outstanding trading update yesterday.

I have the CEO and CFO of the Indian business coming to meet with me in the next few weeks here in Sydney.

Market still so very much asleep.

Its not often one comes across a world leading business in one of the fastest growing markets anywhere in the world.....and have the chance to buy it at an MC of $55m.

This is something very unusual.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 8 2016, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

TSN” – Transaction Solutions. MICRO CAP. SPEC BUY. TARGET PRICE 6c–7c (prev 3.5c – 4c)



Transaction Solutions International Limited (TSN) business is building recurring, cash flow positiverevenue through the deployment of ATMs on behalf of major banks in India.

In addition, TSI India has contracts to service the financial payments sector through automation of bill payment processes in a market that is migrating from paper based to electronic transactions.



Market cap - $60M



Shrs out – 1,838M



Price – 3.6c



2-year high – 4c



TSN Net Cash - TSN ($2M) + TSi 25% holding of $10M USD cash



Business Activity – 13,000+ ATM Network and 400 Bill Payment Kiosks



Revenue – 25% of c$55-65M* (AUD)



TSi (ATM business joint ownership) - $25% owned by TSN and 75% owned by CX Partners



Major shareholders – 33.5% owned by mgmt (Gary Foster & Paul Boyatzis), Copulos Group 6.5%



Top 20 – 60%





1/ TSi AUTOMATED TELLER MACHINE (ATMS):



TSI India’s ATM deployment currently at 13,000+ ATM’s – an increase of nearly 700% since its annual report.



This is for the most part due to a significant managed services contract win with a Top 10 Indian IT company –to be revealed early April.



They are now one of the largest operators of ATM’s in India.



Red Leaf believe that TSi annual revenue is expected to increase from circa $20M FY16 AUD to circa $55-65M AUD per annum. *



As a point of reference, Hitachi purchased TSi’s competitor (Prizm Payments) for circa $250M (USD) back in October, 2013 – at the time, it was believed that Prizm had around 8,000 ATM’s under its management.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 09:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I believe our re-rating has just commenced.

Interesting few days of accumulation.

With the register so tight now, I am looking forward to the next few weeks.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 28 2016, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Finally seems captain Kirke has stopped selling.

With an insto roadshow kicking off shortly and the details of the large deal to be released in the next few days, I believe we are about to see a decent rerate,

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 12 2016, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I got to speak with Gary on Friday for about 20mins. He was very generous with his time, and gave me a real insight into what they are amassing at TSI India.

I think a great deal of information is contained in the broker note from Redleaf Securities posted below.

The most important take out for me is that this 11,000 ATM contract provides us with the platform to then roll out the other product lines we have been working on. The ATM business with the additional 11,000 ATM's will from the information below triple our revenue to say A$60m. This is before we add the other lines of business, and that is where the real jewel of the latest deal lies.

I have been a buyer again this week, and am now it for a number of million shares so am very excited about the potential of what we are building here.

The market is still massively unaware of this. I an some of my colleagues have been introducing TSN to small cap fundies over the last few weeks, so am hoping we will get the added wind of their buying into our sails over coming weeks as well.


Kiril.

I hold

Red Leaf Securities
3 March 2016

Market cap - $40M
Cash - $2M
Shrs out – 1,838M
Revenue – 25% of c$55-65M (AUD)
Major Shareholders – “TSN” CEO/Chairman & friends circa 30%, Copulos Group 6.5%
“TSN” – Major Agreement to Increase its ATM Network from ~2,000 ATM's to over 13,000
It gives Red Leaf great pleasure to provide you with today’s announcement by TSN in regards to its Indian Automatic Teller Machine (“ATM”) business (“TSi”), which has increased its existing network of ATM’s from ~2,000 ATM’s to over 13,000 ATM’s (under ownership and management) in one extremely “company making” deal. This is an increase of nearly 700% of TSi’s existing fleet of ATM’s.
Under the agreement TSi will manage and operate a further 11,000 ATM’s and will come into effect on April 1st 2016.
Red Leaf believe that TSi annual revenue is expected to increase from circa $20M FY16 AUD to circa $55-65M AUD per annum. *
The agreement will significantly increase TSi’s strong footprint in the emerging Indian e-transaction market.
There will be no new funding required so therefore this deal will be instantly value accretive as it is funded by existing cash reserves & cash flows of TSi.
The agreement is with one of India’s Top 10 largest and leading information technology companies.
Given the size and scope of this deal, TSi now have the ability to further expand its e-payment, e-surveillance and power management business lines throughout India – which is home to circa 1.25 Billion people.
Therefore, TSi will become one of the largest operators of ATM’s in India with over 13,000 ATM’s under management in addition with its automated Bill Pay solutions for utility companies.
As a point of reference, Hitachi purchased TSi’s competitor (Prizm Payments) for circa $250M (USD) back in October, 2013 – at the time, it was believed that Prizm had around 8,000 ATM’s under its management.
Red Leaf are encouraged by the scope of opportunities that the Indian market is presenting for TSi given the very strong support by the Reserve Bank of India for digital financial services, as well as financial inclusion through the new generation of Small Finance Banks and Payment Banks as well as a growing e-Commerce market. This is exemplified by the rapid growth in debit cards being issued in India – having nearly doubled to 553,000,000 since 2012 – this figure alone is nearly 23 times larger than Australia’s entire population. **
All we need to do now is remember one simple formula:
Increase the number of debit cards on issue = Increase in ATM transaction volumes.
*TSi. currently $4M rev on 22M transactions ($18M for every 100M transactions) – see below quarterly transactions v quarterly revenues.
Circa 18 cents per transaction.
This is around 45,000 transactions per year per machine.
Current TSi rev circa $20M fy16.
Now 11,000 new machines under TSi’s belt and we estimate they will pay away at least 50% (9 cents) of the transaction fees to counter party, that gives us:
11,000 * 45,000 * 9 cents
= $45M rev
Total $65M annual revenue
$55M annual revenue if the transactions are 7 cents (as above).
**pmjdy.gov.in

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 4 2016, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I get how that could put someone doing their initial investigation right off as 12K revenue in a quarter does not justify such a market cap.

But Gary and his Indian team have positioned this to be the player in ATM management, E-surveillance and M-Banking in India.

The blue sky here is like nothing I have ever seen.

I am still a buyer.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 3 2016, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

OMG is really all I can say.

Had a bit of contact with Gary today and I am so excited about where this business is going. This is just the very first of many transforming announcements is my feeling.

He and his team have been plotting their plans for world domination for some time, and it seems all the pieces are now coming together.

Great summary below from TonyIndo over the road.

Kiril.

I hold


**************************************

1. TSI India are to manage and operate and existing network of over 11,000 ATMs just as I had hoped. smile.gif These are ATMs that are already on the market and operating! I'll come back to this point in a subsequent post.

As fellow poster @phlipper importantly highlighted...

The second dot point is extremely important - the 11,000 machines will be funded from cash reserves and cash flow = absolutely no dilution, none, nothing, nada.....this deal is massively accretive to shareholders!!

Agree Phlipper this is HUGE!

2. Potential to expand across three business lines:

* E-payment
* E-surveillance
* Power management

That's potential to move these solutions (which they already have experience with) in on these 11,000 plus ATMs!!

3. The agreement is with one of India's Top 10 largest and leading IT companies. Have a look at the 2015 list of companies below and their market caps! This is the high profile calibre of companies that TSI India are working alongside. What do you reckon competitors in this space are going to be saying about this? Do you think TSI wouldn't be able to 'replicate' this business model out across other potential companies with ATMs that are looking for a provider to manage these? Similar to what TSI are working diligently on and towards with the current B-Pay Kiosk business model they are looking to present to other Utility companies?

http://www.mbaskool.com/fun-corner/top-bra...india-2015.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_IT_companies

4. Two managed services and two support delivery services.

As fellow poster @martyw highlighted...

It appears we have taken over 2 support delivery centres (owned by who ever previously managed the ATMs I assume) and that these have significant excess capacity. This excess capacity appears to have already been earmarked by TSI to allow it to enter a number of other contracts for other services (that it is "actively pursuing").

I agree Marty. Look what they highlight...

...significantly enhancing the end to end management of deployments on a pan-India basis for:

* ATMs
* Bill Pay Kiosks
* e-Surveillance
* Power Management

Not only that, they'll potentially have the capacity to grow these organically and inorganically - and as a result will give them the opportunity to seek opportunities for introducing e-payments and m-payment services right across its network! MASSIVE is an understatement here folks.

With the register this tight, this could go anywhere.

Agree again Marty, this is only the beginning of this company's re-rating event.

I'm celebrating early lol!
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 22 2016, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Good evening MME.

The goods are all sitting in TSI.

The revenue is all in TSI.

Revenue now well over $16m, we own 24% of this.

TSN reports numbers for TSN only, and at this point that is misleading IMO.

The conversations I have had with Gary lead me to believe these guys could pull an elephant out of their hat if their cards play out well.

Whilst I dont like betting exclusively on blue sky, I dont believe I am in this situation.

And yes, I now own a good chunk of stock.

Kiril.

I hold

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 21 2016, 05:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Even though I feel like I am talking to myself, and taking note of the small amount of reads this thread gets.... here goes.

The SP has consolidated, having closed at an all time high in the last week, but failing to make a convincing push towards the 3c mark.

The CEO Gary is very tight lipped which just made me think even more of him.

Some interesting discussion going on over the road and from my research they are spot on with a number of their theories....from what i can make out, if TSN can pull some of what the speculation is off, in the 2nd largest market of the world which is only now going through a banking revolution as such.....the mind boggles what the market cap of TSN might reach in coming months.

Very exciting.

Couldn't help myself, buying again last week.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 20 2016, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Oh dear Mags, then you wont like this article from todays Sydney Morning Herald:

http://www.domain.com.au/news/real-estate-...0160215-gmv1h9/

People havent worked out that buying off the plan usually means paying 15-20% than todays built price.

Fine when the market is going up faster than that over the construction period.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 19 2016, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Discussion around property almost always polarises people. According to the latest Household Wealth Report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics- the average household has about 56 per cent of its wealth stored in property, Superannuation is only 17%....and a measly 2.5% in shares.

I probably should disclose for the record, I run LJ Hooker Buyers Agency so perhaps I am a little biased towards property. However none of what I am sharing are the thoughts of the business, just me as an individual.

I get to speak to a lot of people every day about their property thoughts, goals and objectives....and yes Aussies just love property.

I love when an investors equities drop in value, they start wondering if they made a mistake and search for information as to whether they should sell their position. Yet when their property flat lines or drops in value....."its a long term investment".

What truly amazes me though is how little the average person really understands what causes property prices to go up, stay flat.....and although no one likes to admit it, they do go down as well.

I recall a meeting with one of our largest investors in 2012, when the Sydney market had just dropped by around 10% (inner city).....I told her that I thought it was time we bought her another investment property. Her reply was, "why would I do that, the market has just fallen 10%". I replied with, " you are right, let's wait till its gone up by 10% before we buy".

Anyway, the Australian market is so fragmented right now, that each state is in its own cycle. I certainly wouldn't be buying in most of them right now....bar one. Hopefully when we get that 1 or 2 interest rate drops later this year, we see some increased activity again.

Will be interesting to see what comes out budget night....Australia is waiting.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 6 2016, 06:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

As expected, very little buying caused the SP to pop.

The last few weeks has demonstrated that there is really very little supply being fed into the offer....so any one wanting just 5m shares will move the price.

3c will be breached rather easily now IMO.

From my discussions with Gary and extensive research, a $300M MC is a reasonable medium term target....equating to 20c

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 19 2016, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

C Group bought another 10m shares in the last week.

They now own 6.5% of the register.

This must be like taking candy from a baby for them.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 14 2016, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I had a look at the top 20 list today.

C Group have bough another 10m on market.

No real supply there as most of the register is in safe hands.

Am looking forward to watching this play out.

This business has so much going for it...and no one seems to really care.....except for a handful of us.

Fortune favors the brave.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 5 2016, 08:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Mentioned on YMYC today. I think we are going to see some action tomorrow.

Do you ever get the feeling you are talking to yourself?

Who said that?

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 4 2016, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The buying has continued to drive the SP north over the last week.

The absolute lack of selling depth is making it very hard for anyone to accumulate any real position here.

I bought again this morning at 1.5c

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 31 2015, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I am happy to share that I am bursting with excitement about the TSN business.

An awesome summary by TonyIndo from across the road:

The businesses that are up and running at the moment are only:

* ATM deployment for 3 Indian bank clients.
* Bill Payment/Kiosks for 7 high profile clients.

and they're probably bringing in close to 100 million transactions in total per year now at an average transaction fee of anywhere between $0.15c to $0.20c!

Products that TSI have ready for the market:

* E-surveillance
* Power Management
* Pre-paid cards & Card Management
* POS Terminals
* Loyalty & Reward Programs
* Automated Electronic Journal (Refer to case study in the May 2015 Corporate Presentation)
* EJ pulling & Remote Screen Management (Refer to case study in the May 2015 Corporate Presentation)

Potential business opportunities:

* Manage existing or new banks ATM networks.
* Buy out existing or new banks ATM networks.
* Smartphone Technology
* Big data driven MIS Systems for Analytics
* Card Issuance
* Payment Services
* Card Management
* Card Products

Please tell me how on earth this is still at trading at 1.5c?

You're right, no luck required here just solid research and I have done my fair share.

I should then add in this one too:

The e-surveillance and pre-paid card space is definitely being overlooked by the market by long shot.

600 million debit cards currently circulating throughout India, primarily used to withdraw cash from ATMs. Government inclusion scheme (PMJDY) a massive success since launch in August 2014 with 192 million bank accounts opened since launch & increasing daily. Active bank accounts on the rise especially since new initiatives/schemes have been recently launched. ATMs in India close to 200k, ATMs deployed on the rise, bank branches on the rise, 11 new Payment Banks approved in principle (high profile companies) e-lobbies on the rise, therefore e-surveillance presents a MAJOR opportunity for TSI with only a handful of operators currently in the space. Pre-paid cards - look at dismal percentage of transactions going through on these cards highlighted in the link below. Equals another potential MAJOR opportunity for TSI.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/JjiJ1...it-c...on-in-FY15.html

Then there's the POS (Point of Service) terminals market. There are only 1 million POS terminals throughout India in a population of 1.2 billion people. TSI have this product ready for the market. This is another HUMONGOUS area they're preparing or are prepared for. See below.

http://www.tsiplc.com/fixedpos.asp

People selling under 10c will be regretting the day they got into this one. Yes, regretting they sold under 10c imo. Should a trade sale not eventuate and TSI go the IPO route, all I can say is watch out!

Kiril.

I hold (and just bought again).
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 26 2015, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The broker transaction report shows insto broker D2MX bought net 17,930,000 shares spending $215K on their purchase in the last week.

I have bought more last few days.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 17 2015, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Bought more yesterday.

CEO owns 11% of the company, register now is super tight.

Watch what happens over the next few weeks as word starts to get out.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 17 2015, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

PEN is now my largest holding too.

I bought more recently, and if it wasnt for another stock I am most excited about, I would have bought more this week again.

Hi Alonso....young or brave?

I cant find a mining stock more derisked then PEN.

U spot from $150 US a pound pre Fukashima to $38 now......I think our timing is pretty good.

Dont think it will be a cracker 2016 as I believe we will see serious movement pre Christmas.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 14 2015, 03:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Bought more on Friday.

Managed to have a chat with Gary last week. He was very tight lipped but did manage to say they are very busy on many fronts and was very excited about some of the potential.

I am still very excited by where this SP could go.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 14 2015, 02:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

In the last week, Global X have added 152,069 shares to their position having spent around $200K doing so.

The tighter this register become the bigger the rise when the newsflow starts at month end upon NYSE listing and the end of their blackout period.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 14 2015, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

hi Nifty.

I believe Gus was as controlled as he could be not to give away too much that might land him in trouble with the ASX listing rules.

I have had a number of conversations with Gus over the last 5 years and one thing I will give him, is that he is a long term strategic thinker. Everything occurring today has been planned out for some time.

He did mention that they have been talking to insto's across the US and Europe very recently. I believe that the next 6 months will see substantial SP appreciation and Gus has all the catalysts for that lined up.

I have recently added to my already decent sized position in PEN. If we see further weakness this week I will end up with an even larger position.

So in a word, YES.

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 12 2015, 07:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I attended the Sydney roadshow today.

NRC approval is no longer "a show stopper".

We have been in a blackout period on new information as NYSE has rules around front running.

I asked when do ADR's start trading as it was meant to be October, Gus said by the end of this month.

I asked Gus what the short term catalysts for SP movement were; he said:

New term contracts/NYSE listing/new investors and Insto buying

I asked Gus to explain why large holders parcelling and selling to the ADR's issue would want to then buy back into the Aussie script...makes no sense.

Gus tried to explain but was clearly out of his depth, so Dan Bahen who runs insto dealing at Patto's jumped in saying there could be an arbitrage opportunity as the 2 markets trade at different values.

Gus spoke about the massive move by China towards U, and that all his wealth is tied up in PEN and he expects to do very well in the immediate future as the SP re-rates.

Spoke about Karoo and said we bought it for a song considering previous owners spent over $150m on it (from memory).

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 12 2015, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Definitely something going on here now.

I just raised my bid and bought some more.

Not sure what but looks exciting.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 10 2015, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Last few days has seen strong buying return.

I placed an order for a few million more today at 1c but missed the boat it seems.

I think we could see this run strongly next few days if this buying interest continues.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 23 2015, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Purchases over the last few days equal $759,593.

Sorry for the missed days been interstate.

I think the buying is pretty much complete....for now.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 20 2015, 06:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Yesterdays purchases by the fund totalled $2,255,726
,
Really increased their buying.

This included a couple of large crossings that were secured for some large lines of script.

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 18 2015, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Looks like the .9 sellers are pretty much exhausted and the buyers are now having to step up to 1c.....FINALLY!!!

I am surprised still how little attention a company with a market cap of $18m that is actually profitable and in such a fast growing industry in the second most populous country in the world is getting.

Something tells me this is all about to change over the next 2 weeks.

Very very exciting times.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 18 2015, 06:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Fridays purchases by the fund totalled $1,142,090
,
Really increased their buying.

This included a couple of large crossings that were secured for some large lines of script.

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 17 2015, 07:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Yesterdays purchases by the fund totalled $83,831

Really increased their buying.

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 15 2015, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Finally it seems a few others have worked the MASSIVE opportunity in this stock.

I just can not believe how little love she has received.

One line sticks in my mind from my meeting with Gary the CEO last year....."Show me one other company that has gone into India, and made money".

With such a small market cap and such a fast growing business.....any real interest in buying script will see this fly.

This is exactly the type of stock that could really run hard and hit the hundred million MC or more level as people realise the size of this market.

That will create a number of millionaires along the way.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 15 2015, 05:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Yesterdays purchases by the fund totalled $196,099

Really increased their buying.

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 14 2015, 06:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Yesterdays purchases by the fund totalled $48,626

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 13 2015, 07:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi R/Ross.

I must say I felt my far earlier purchaser were speculation. Whist we still had risk around permitting and various regulatory hurdles, and the Intervener's had their shot, we really could have had a very different outcome.

But now that construction is complete and commissioning has begun or imminent

U price starting to recover

Japan making moves to start its another reactor

NYSE listing by year end

Major news on Karoo (this I expect alone will be company making from my previous discussions with Gus)

China making U their priority over the next 5 year plan

PEN about to become the largest U producer in the US

And finally and MOST importantly.....a Fund buying at market every day with a target spend of $5m yet to go.

Kiril.

I hold....Lots.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 13 2015, 06:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Yesterdays purchases by the fund totalled $84,978

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 12 2015, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

$228,000 bought today....they did well to keep the price suppressed today IMO.

I managed to buy some this morning....couldn't help myself.

I feel that the result now is inevitably a much higher SP, so I feel confident increasing my exposure.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 11 2015, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Fridays purchases by the fund totalled $54,417

Building their position.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 11 2015, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

This post courtesy of Tonyindo....really captures the opportunity here in TSN.

Here is my view & synopsis of why I believe TSN is so undervalued at present. But first, why the company believes India is the ideal market for TSI India's business model.

India:

* India - One of the worlds largest growth economies. (1)

* India Demographics - Population of over 1.2 billion people with 70% under the age of 30 years with an emerging middle class that has a strong demand for ATM Banking services. (2)

* Equity Markets - Foreign investment increased substantially in India over the past year before easing off around May 2015. Overseas investors upped their holdings in both government and corporate notes by $25.6 billion over the last 12 months. Overseas investors upped their holdings in the Indian equity markets by $15.3 billion over the last 12 months, although May 2015 poised to be the first month to see outflows. (3)

* According to UN report, India's economy is projected to grow this year and next year and set to overtake China. (3)

* Inflation in India significantly lower than previous years. Currently around approximately 5.17%. Positive for TSI India. (3)

* Senior economist highlighted... 'However, investors will have to be patient'. (3)

* Company expects to see continued strong economic growth in India over the coming years. (3)

* Government Initiatives - Financial Inclusion' & 'Make In India' initiatives being high priorities for the Indian Government. This new Indian Government is very focused on their goal of bringing in 700 million people into the banking system in India. One year since the launch of PMJDY and 175 million bank accounts have now been opened since August 2014 last year with $220 million dollars deposited into these new bank accounts. With the new Government initiatives underway, should see new bank accounts numbers continue to rise and active bank accounts improve. (4) & (6)

* Debit card growth on the rise. As of the end of May 2015 the grand total of Debit Cards were: 570,813,794. That's a jump of 26% over last year. (3) Page 8 of TSN's announcement dated 25/03/13 highlighted that as of FY12 there were 281 million debit cards in India. (5) Three years later and that figure has more than doubled!

* Page 8 of the announcement dated 25/03/13 highlighted that cash continues to account for 90% of retail payments (2011). * Consumption spending steadily rising. * Consumer spending in India FY 2015 $1.355 Billion. (5)

* ATM expansion on the rise in India. (7)

* Bank branches on the rise in India. (7)

* Indian Rupee - 1 Indian Rupee today equals 0.021 Australian Dollar. (8)

Now for TSI India:

* TSI India - The company has already established strong sound relationships with major Indian banks, Utility Co's and Financial Institutions - 10 clients in total with over 230 million plus customers on their databases collectively. (9)

* CX Partners own 75% of TSI India. (9)

* TSN now has a 25% equity interest in TSI India's business.(9)

* CX Partners are funding the entire ATM/Bill Payment business as a result of the approximate 75%/25% deal. (9)

* TSI India had achieved gross recurring revenues of A$4M for the quarter (as of 15/05/15). Should we see those numbers x four quarters = AUD$16M per year in gross recurring revenues. (9)

* TSI India has aligned its strategy with the Reserve Bank of India of 'banking to the masses' i.e., to bring in another 700 million people into the banking system. (10)

* TSI India ATM Business - Business growing and looking to expand opportunities. As per announcement dated 31/07/15 the company highlighted that TSI India had 1825 installed & operating ATMs in India with 475 ATMs to still come online to equal 2300 ATMs in total. ATM deployment grew by 36% during the year. (3) As per announcement dated 15/05/15 TSI India highlighted that they're rapidly approaching 100 million transactions per year. (9) Prior to the 21/05/2013 Shareholder Presentation, TSI had a little over 1000 ATMs on the market. The Shareholder Presentation highlighted that of the Indian outsourcing companies TSI had ~9% of the market. (11) It is probably close to 10-12% now (cheers Snakeeyes!).

* TSI India Bill Payment Business - TSI India now have 400 Bill Payment machines in India (with new 200 E-Kiosk contract recently awarded in July 2015) (9). The Bill Payments Business currently makes up approximately 10% of TSI's business, good scope and potential for strong margins with strong opportunities for expansion, which includes the field of mobile payments. (12)

* TSI India's objective is for a trade sale. Possible exit date for a trade sale is less than 12 months away. (13)

* If TSI India don't achieve a trade sale in that time window then an IPO is on the agenda. (13)

* As per 2014 Annual Report, TSI India recently achieved cash flow positive level of sales from business operations. (14)

* TSI India is starting to win larger ATM contracts. Existing bank client relationships are solid. Many contracts have been renewed with existing bank clients. I've previously highlighted that on page 4 of the Independent Investment Research Report, the research team highlighted that according to TSN, banks are no longer looking to award contracts for less than 100 ATMs. That figure has now been bumped up to blocks of 500 plus, with an execution period of 6-12 months. (15)

* Transaction fees approximately AUD $0.20c based on numbers taken from Operations Update dated 13/04/15. (16)

* AUD $18.5 million facility in place. The AUD $18.5 million facility was based on AUD $1 = 54 INR at the time. (17) The company was able to secure this line of credit with only 815 ATMs (refer to 2012 Annual Report). They had 100% ownership at the time but that ATM figure is now getting close to 2300 ATMs but at 25% ownership.

* TSI India have measures in place to improve margins. As highlighted in the Operations Update dated 20/03/14, "TSI India believe cost reduction initiatives will assist in addressing margins as the business and ATM market expands". (15)

* Share price today sits at $0.008c.

* We have a market cap today of approx $14.24M.

From the recent Corporate Presentation dated 15/05/15 (9)

* Banking Opportunities: Opportunity to offer 100 plus banks their new leading technology. ATM networks, systems, payment services, card issuance, card management and card products and mobile payments. That's a total of 7 opportunities that the company has yet to tap into!

* Payments Opportunities: Corporate payments, m-commerce, easy electronic solutions, banking and payment services. The stand out for me under this heading was that Corporates are seeking rapid deployment of new products and services to capture these markets immediately. In other words it's a HIGH PRIORITY focus for them!

* TSN - reviewing numerous business opportunities to leverage the strong relationships they have formed over the years with clients and Indian market.

* TSN has no debt. (9)

* And as of the 30/07/15 TSN had cash of A$2.012M. (18)

Trip back to 2010:

Refer to 2010 Annual Report. (19)

* In 2010 TSN owned 100% of the ATM/Bill Payment business.

* TSN had achieved gross revenues of A$1.8M for Q210.

* 9 million plus transactions were going through the business per quarter = $36m transactions per year.

* They had about 370 installed ATMs in India.

* Share price at the time was approximately $0.038c.

* They had a market cap back then of approx $45M.

* Transaction fees was approximately AUD $0.15c.

* The company had no debt.

* And as of the 30/09/10 they had cash of A$4.5m.

So that's my view & synopsis of why I believe TSN should easily be valued at 8-10 cents today based on current business alone and why my attention remains on the company's bigger picture.

References:

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India

(2) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101026/pdf/31td9lkd036jxp.pdf

(3) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150731/pdf/4306zrxry6xmb1.pdf

(4) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150413/pdf/42xvd5j3tdtg39.pdf

(5) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130325/pdf/42dvspw11v74dm.pdf

(6) http://www.financialexpress.com/art...ri-j...di-govt/127075/

(7) https://rbi.org.in/scripts/ATMView.aspx?atmid=51#

(8) https://www.google.com.au/search?q=....9041...93&ie=UTF-8

(9) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150515/pdf/42yl8x4cqbsnp7.pdf

(10) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141126/pdf/42v19837zvngrm.pdf

(11) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130521/pdf/42g0djsf3szvh1.pdf

(12) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130828/pdf/42hzjsgqqjthtx.pdf

(13) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130416/pdf/42f91sg4tfk77y.pdf

(14) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140729/pdf/42r3364rknjtw8.pdf

(15) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140320/pdf/42nj2t3g3vlly8.pdf

(16) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150413/pdf/42xvd5j3tdtg39.pdf

(17) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120814/pdf/4280hjbxzsctgt.pdf

(18) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150730/pdf/4304pqyrn3bspb.pdf

(19) http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101026/pdf/31td9lkd036jxp.pdf

Tony
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 9 2015, 08:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Great to see that the ETF Uranium Index Fund (URA) called Global X....that tracks the Solactive uranium index has commenced buying into PEN.

PEN has a 4.86% weight in that index. The ETF currently has 0.98% in there. So they need to buy another 6.6m shares.

http://www.globalxfunds.com/URA (click on download full holdings)

They have been trying to accumulate on the quiet recently, but it seems that the word is now out as it is a publicly traded EFT that updates its holding daily.

This now becomes a positive feedback loop. The fund needs to hold the equivalent percentage in PEN as PEN's weight is of the index. As the fund continues to buy, the SP continues to rise, thereby increasing the PEN market cap.....and increasing its percentage weighting in that index.

I think next week the SP will explode.

Finally.

Kiril.

I hold



  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 9 2015, 07:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

First time I have ever held a share that consolidated and didnt fall.

I think the next few weeks are going to be outstanding for PEN.

Glad to see the large holder playing selling games has now ceased.

Imagine how the SP will react when a US insto or 2 decide to get onboard.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 9 2015, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well this little gem is finally getting some attention.

I met with the CEO about a year or so ago.

Gary is a major holder, with management owning a large chunk of the register....so I think we will see this really run hard if this accumulation continues.

The selling over the last 2 years has been from a large fund Utilico, which drove the price down to .3 of a cent.

With Utilico's holding bought out last week, something is going down IMO.

Was hoping on buying a bucket more around .3/.4 but looks like I have missed the boat.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 7 2015, 12:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Almost there now.

With production due to commence this month, and the consolidation now complete and trading above the pre-consolidation price, I think we are starting to see the transformation take place before our very eyes.

We today traded at 3c pre-con price......anyone wanting to gain a stake now will be paying up nicely.

Wonder how the US listing timetable is looking at the is supposed to take place this month as well.

Exciting times for PEN, as I keep saying.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 7 2015, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks K1 for the update. I have missed your views.

I just landed back in Oz this morning after 2 weeks in the US.

What really upset me was the obesity epidemic that country is experiencing.

Outside of LA where people are very health and fitness aware, the rest of the US is eating itself to death. The monster portion sizes we were fed were often enough to feed my whole family from just a single order.

Watching these young people already struggling to walk up a few stairs was very sad to see.

So the promise of free healthcare for the aged is going to prove very difficult to deliver.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Aug 31 2015, 09:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Interesting goings on today.

Some definite buying occurring with the bot constantly trying to cover its tracks.

I am so excited about the global Uranium market right now, and what to me looks so obvious.

We are at a major inflection point.

And with the Karoo elephant in the room.......watch this space!!!

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 26 2015, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Alonso.

Very happy about todays announcement...this is another major box ticked.

Not so happy that Gus thinks he is worth even more money for doing his already overpaid job. But obviously he has the support of our major instos.

The great news is that we will not have this company stolen from us by the Chinese......the majors have really backed Gus and the prospects we are bringing to production.

With the US listing about to take place, I am really looking forward to the next exciting stage of our development.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 24 2015, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Absolutely the best day of the year to go into a trading halt.

Awaiting news of Sales Contract(s).

How exciting.

Finally we are about to see what this stock can do.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 11 2015, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Elliot, you are 100% correct.

For 2 years as the company continued to derisk the Wyoming project and take steps towards production, I kept singing the praise of this stock.

Today, we are literally on the door step of becoming the largest U producer in the US.

In that time I have double my position and am still a firm believer that we will see multiples of this SP in coming months.

I could be wrong and have been many times before.

Lets see how this plays out.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 10 2015, 10:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Japan restart commences tomorrow, BHP pulling staff out of Olympic dam....is PEN ready for the rerating to begin?

Lets get this party started.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 1 2015, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Whilst no one rings a bell when a stock is primed to explode upwards, reading that impressive list of achievements has got to make one think that we are about to see multiples of the current SP.

Its only once we fly past 5c when people will be saying its time to get on board PEN.

How much more derisking does an investor require?

We already know that Karoo is going to surprise and that offtake agreements have already been established....its just retail that haven't been told the detail.

Do you really think 5 large instos would have committed the kind of bucks they have without some certainty of the outcome?

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 22 2015, 07:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Manipulation ceased to today completely.

A complaint to ASIC?

A few dollars traded all day......that's because there are no sellers left at this level.....is that what the recent manipulation was trying to establish?

Ready for a substantial surge?

I am.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 21 2015, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Elliott.

I agree 100% that almost every share forum thread has discussion of the price being held back or a large manipulator doing this or that.....and many times I have listened to my inner circle of very large holders discuss how they believe PEN is being played with, and I have always disagreed. Saying it is just people getting out, and others simply getting in...all just mum and dads.

But in the last few days, I believe something has changed.

I know we are are very close to some company making news because I have gotten to know Gus over numerous conversations over the last few years.

Gus needs the SP at 8c by October...end of story.

And I am betting he will get it there....BANG.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 21 2015, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Placing 20 tiny trades at 2.4c is not going to fool anyone.

They just cant get anyone to sell large amounts to them.

I think we are very close now, and all the weak hands are gone......clearly the overhang from any sellers that got in via the RI at 2c are now exhausted.

Being set up for a strong rally perhaps?

I am not selling any.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 20 2015, 09:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Look at the depth.....this stock is being played with.

Why?

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 19 2015, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

An announcement each day last week hey.

Gus is serious about the US listing and getting us to 8c before October.

What exciting information can we learn about our Elephant in Africa?

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 15 2015, 08:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Starting to feel like a monologue..... sometime I feel like I am just talking to myself.

Hopefully we will get some well deserved attention very soon.

Hopefully.

Kiril.

I hold.....lots.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 15 2015, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Interesting trading the last few days.

A bot has been working the SP and finally resulted in some reasonable buying this afternoon.

Could my insto have arrived today?

I think they have until month end to continue buying up quietly......and after that it will be clear to everyone if an insto is truly buying in.

Am looking forward to the day we see some real line wiping again in PEN.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 2 2015, 08:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Interesting movement in the top 20 in the last month.

BNP Paribas with 235M shares.

Clearly they have taken over the holding of Areva that held 227m last month and have added 8m.

Something happening here?

I believe that we will see a substantial re rating of PEN very shortly and that will be a result of institutional buying.

Very close now.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 25 2015, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Merc,

You are correct in that Wyoming is ISR method of mining as opposed to Karoo which is your traditional mining method which is far more costly to extract and hence would be uneconomic at current spot and term contract levels.

However we are about to become the next global producer and in the most U friendly region of the world, where the US relies on U for 20% of their energy supply.

I recall previous discussions with Gus about the potential size of the Karoo deposit, and the very likely possibility of that asset alone being a company making game changer for PEN. I was always of the belief that Wyoming would just be the funding vehicle for getting Karoo into production, but even Wyoming is starting to look attractive now with its expanded tenement.

Investors in the RI are up 40% already in less than 6 months....which is nothing compared to where I think we will be later in the year.

My participation in the RI was based on the belief that the free PENOD will be valued at more that the cost of the head we paid 2c for.

I continue to add at these levels.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 24 2015, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Nice addition to our board today.

All the pieces are being moved into position.....and yet no one notices or cares.

Interesting few months coming up.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 16 2015, 07:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks Rosskend.

Whilst the action now is around the commencement of production, I am personally most excited by the size of Karoo. I know that Gus and crew have been working away on that so am expecting some serious earth moving news to take us substantially higher.

I have memories of PDN and EXT in my mind. Too many millionaires created from those specky holding to count.

I am still below my average inspite of participating in a big way in the recent RI.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 15 2015, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well its just over 4 months since the rights issue. Anyone who participated is today up 62.5%

I must say I genuinely believe this will be the stock of the year over the next 12 months. The writing is so obviously on the wall for this, yet everyone is still looking through the rear view mirror on this one rather than what is so clearly in front of us.

I bought more PENOD's last week and today....and think they are still a gift at this level.

I think Gus needs to get it to 8c to get his freebies.....should be interesting.

We become a producer very shortly and US insto's will be all over this in the next few months.

Anyone else on board?

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 20 2015, 06:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Whilst the style and some of the content starts to feel like an infomercial.....I think Kevin Spacey is right on the money with almost all the points about the US economy that he makes.

The US is seriously broke, simple as that.

This will play out in a BIG way.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Mar 19 2015, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well K1 has finally hit the big time in this interview.

While it sound and actually looks like Kevin Spacey, the content is 100% Kahuna's.....remarkable really.

This interview or at least the first 5 mins is well worth listening too. Once you get to 5 you wont be able to turn this off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le73sWDlhz4

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Mar 2 2015, 08:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Another green light for U mining in Wyoming. We are slap bang in the heart of the U mining capital of the US.

http://oilcitywyo.com/2015/03/01/governor-...ium-permitting/

Today Governor Mead signed HB0027-NRC agreement state authorization – which begins the process to give the State of Wyoming regulatory authority over uranium mine permitting. The legislation takes effect immediately.

“This legislation is the first step in cuting the bureaucracy in the licensing process and gives the state the power to regulate uranium mining. It’s good for Wyoming and our economy,” said Governor Mead.

With all our boxes now ticked with Wyoming.....I am expecting Gus to start letting out some of the news on Karoo. Lets go Elephant hunting!!!

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 27 2015, 08:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"I would work on the possibility that interest rates could reach 16% again as a result of a worldwide repricing of the value of "things".

Really?

You really believe what you wrote?

In whos life time?

How many decades before we see inflation hit over 12%?

You dont need to answer these question....just saying.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 18 2015, 07:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Uranium spot price expected to push through $40/lb this week: Cantor Fitzgerald

Wednesday, February 18, 2015 by Deborah Bacal

The uranium spot market will likely see some big moves this week, according to analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, after two of the world's largest uranium mines encountered supply disruptions.

Analyst Rob Chang said the incidents at the two mines, which account for 8 percent of global production, will likely lift uranium prices.

"Combined with the fact that the spot market is very thin, as 20% or less of total annual sales are transacted at spot, a reduction of supply from one of the larger spot market sellers (BHP) will cause notable upward pressure on prices," wrote Chang in a research note released late Friday afternoon.

"We expect U3O8 spot prices to push through US$40/lb. this week (from US$38/lb.) into the mid-40s and perhaps higher."

The incidents occurred at BHP's (NYSE:BHP) Olympic Dam mega copper-gold-uranium mine in Australia, and Rio Tinto's (NYSE:RIO) Rossing mine in Namibia.

BHP announced that the largest of its three mills at its property was damaged due to an electrical fault, with expectations that the mill will be down for six months. It is estimated that production could be hurt by as much as 30 percent from a previously anticipated 8.7 million pounds, Cantor said.

Uranium is considered a by-product of the Olymic Dam mine, which is more focused on the copper and gold output. As a result, the uranium produced from the property is generally sold in the thin spot market, Chang wrote, providing for less supply in this market and a "large corresponding price increase."

Meanwhile, at the Rio Tinto mine, a fire broke out in its final product recovery plan, the location where uranium oxide is packed for export. Most of the damage was contained to the roasters inside the facility, with operations to continue, the company said.

But because of the damage to the plant, it is unknown when Rio can ship the final product out of the mine and into the market, Cantor Fitzgerald said. The cause of the fire remains unknown.

"Unlike at Olympic Dam, Rossing’s production has already been scaled down to meet Rio Tinto’s long-term contract requirements, which are at a higher price point than the current US$38/lb. spot price," Chang said.

The broker is of the view that a "violent upward move in the price of uranium is inevitable", based on an unavoidable supply deficit expected in 2020, where uranium supply from all sources does not meet increased demand anticipated, particularly from China.

"With primary supply at the mine level already notably below current demand levels (148M lbs. vs. 175M lbs.), few new mines coming online within the next five years, long term all-in sustaining costs at US$80/lbs., and unexpected supply shocks as those listed today, we believe uranium will need to undergo dramatic price increases to incentivize supply to meet demand – otherwise the world will have inactive nuclear reactors and an electricity shortage," Cantor concluded.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...h-40...rald-60761.html
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 17 2015, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Last few days has seen no real volume.

I have been waiting for more selling, as I have continued to buy, but looks like it might have stopped....for now.

With the 4 largest holders sitting on approx 53% of the total script, they are all firmly in control of any price movement.

If they want the price to go down, they release some stock, and down she goes. When they turn the tap off like the last few days, we see very little traded.

So should any new buyers emerge, and the big 4 stay put....we will see the price pop upwards rather quickly.

I wonder what the big 4 have in stall for us over the next few months.

Good luck to holders.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 1 2015, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

My Post on this thread...March 12 2014:

wren, perhaps I should be flattered that you are stalking me, but it really is a little juvenile wouldn't you agree?

These boards are for discussing stocks as I have pointed out to you before. Why don't you take your grudge back across the road to the site where it is rife and find someone else to play with?...Since I am an easy target due to my regular declaration of playing the ball not the man.

As I replied to you last time you had a whine, I don't get every investment decision right....but I am out there having a go.

Good luck champion.


***********************************
Clearly just as relevant 1 year later.

Now Wren, for my benefit, please explain....what is your problem?

Why are you stalking me?

People here are here and not on HC because they like discussing stocks....and not engaging in juvenile games. GROW UP.

This is the last time I ever reply to you.

But clearly there are some serious issues that you are going through....or that you went through in the play ground all those years ago, but please Wren, its time to move on mate.

Best of luck to you, I truly hope you find some happiness in your life.

Take care.

Kiril.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 1 2015, 01:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Merc,

I dont think anyone is dismissing that the timelines Gus expounded years ago were just rubbish. More recently, he has kept to the timelines he indicated both publicly and in conversations I have had with him.

The massive support by the insto shareholders of THIS rights issue sends a very clear message of support. Dont forget it was PALA's selling that got the SP as low as it did, and I firmly believe that is now behind us. As we saw this week it wont take much buying to see it rise many pips...so imagine what might happen if we finally had insto buying on market.

I spoke to a few fundies in Sydney in 2013/14 about taking a position and they could not due to their trust deed restrictions. Well now we are finally in a position for those funds to take an early position in what is the most exciting and what will be the largest producing new U opportunity operating in North America.

I have well and truly oversubscribed my allocation....and wait with fingers crossed to see if my full allocation will be given. I dont expect very large retail support of the RI so should be filled.

Sadly to many burnt retail holders will be watching with too small a holding to really see the gains that I expect to occur here. 2c was a gift....and a free oppie, well cream on the cake.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 29 2015, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well, we are finally here.....the start line.

We will be one of the largest U producers in North America, we are fully funded for stage 1, and our large insto shareholders have all put their hands in their pocket for a decent amount of the register.

I am really excited by the opportunity here, and how mispriced the market has it. With the Japan tragedy still affecting U four years later, where most conventional producers are not profitable at the current spot price, we are a stand out with our project being ISR.

I have taken up my full allocation and applied for overs. Expecting news on further contracts, news on Karoo and what ever Gus might have been working on these last few months.

The last few times I have spoken to him, he has been very tight lipped but very confident.

Lets see how the take up was, not expecting large uptake from existing shareholders. Sadly many investors have been burned and cant see past this.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 6 2014, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Here is one for you Mark.

Ikea makes billions in Australia and pays no tax.

I guess it all comes down to the cost of Goods bought from the parent.

A great reason to raise the GST to 12% so that we at least capture 12% into aussie coffers.

Sad really.

Kiril

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/why-...106-11hlut.html

Why IKEA Australia's $1 billion in profits are mostly tax-free
Date
November 6, 2014 - 10:33AM
521 reading nowRead later
Neil Chenoweth


It was not until 2013, after a decade of small profits, that IKEA finally wiped out the accumulated losses to put its Australian arm in the black after 30 years of booming sales.
It was not until 2013, after a decade of small profits, that IKEA finally wiped out the accumulated losses to put its Australian arm in the black after 30 years of booming sales.
Lend lease liking for Luxembourg
International PWC tax schemes exposed
Despite reporting decades of miserable results, Swedish furniture company IKEA's Australian arm has earned an estimated $1 billion in profits since 2003, and almost all of it has been exported tax-free to Luxembourg and the Netherlands, reports the Australian Financial Review.

Documents submitted by accounting firm PwC to Luxembourg officials help unlock one of the mysteries of Australian retailing – how the flat-pack giant could lift its sales here by 500 per cent while its profits barely budged.

IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad.
IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad. Photo: Reuters
The Luxembourg documents detail secret advance tax agreements in 2009, and identify IKEA entities that have received hundreds of millions of dollars from the Australian operation – including franchise fees, interest payments and fees for a "risk agreement" that to date has cost $260 million.

In contrast to the offshore profits, IKEA reported losing money here every year from the mid-1980s until 2002, when accumulated losses stood at $67 million.

It was not until 2013, after a decade of small profits, that IKEA finally wiped out the accumulated losses to put its Australian arm in the black after 30 years of booming sales.

While IKEA's auditor is KPMG, when the group wanted a new tax agreement with Luxembourg it turned to PwC because of its close relationship with Marius Kohl, the Luxembourg bureaucrat who until last year made all decisions about foreign-owned companies in the duchy.

In its November 2009 correspondence with Mr Kohl, PwC emphasised that there were two separate parts to IKEA: "The IKEA Group of companies and the Inter IKEA Group of companies are independent and there is no common ownership or common management. The two perform different activities."

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists has led a review of the documents by more than 80 journalists in 26 countries. French journalist Edouard Perrin first reported on several files for the France 2 television channel.

The documents describe how IKEA Group owns and operates 264 IKEA stores in 24 countries including Australia, and owns the exclusive rights to develop the IKEA product range. As designer of the products it holds the intellectual property and thus can charge a mark-up when it sells the products to stores via IKEA Supply AG.

It works like this. From 2002 to 2013, IKEA Supply AG charged the Australian arm $2.67 billion as the cost of products. These were sold in the Australian stores for $4.76 billion. After other costs IKEA ended up with total pre-tax profits of $103 million for the period, on which it paid $31 million in tax.





Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/why-...l#ixzz3IF0kTosW

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Oct 18 2014, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Because holders will crucify any board that doesnt take an opportunity to raise whilst the SP is at a high...as a poor result on the second drill might see the SP at half this level.

In this market, take the cash when you can.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 17 2014, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Cap raising through Bell.

PLACEMENT TO RAISE MINIMUM A$30.0 million and up to A$46.7 MILLION

at 11c.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 30 2014, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/bubb...0829-3ek9p.html
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 29 2014, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I was sure you would be out today.

Well done, nice trade.

Etrade 24% of all volume....no surprises.

Probably the short of the century right now.


Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 28 2014, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

This thing looks like it will never run out of steam.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 27 2014, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Another day another fortune made on this.

Arty, just for the record, my friend bought in at 20c 4 years ago....so not recently.

I also know the Barts....and if you consider that Fred and Cheryl's holding today alone of 2.337m shares went up $7.3m.....lucky for some hey?

Good luck to holders.

Take some profit and let the balance RUN.

Or tight stops.

Take care..
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 26 2014, 08:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I agree, greed is such a powerful driving force.

I outlined the case yesterday to a holder who is up over a million dollars as to why they should sell just half and let the rest run....but no chance because its still going higher.

Always ends in tears....always.

Kiril.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 25 2014, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I have been watching this for a little while as I know a few people that got in at the start.

With a MC now of $230m and no revenue on the horizon, the only trade I would be doing here is the short one.

Todays announcement says it all really, and people are silly enough to bid it up on that news. Reminds me of 1999 dotcom era.

Good luck with your trade......tight stops.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 28 2014, 07:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I simply can not read another article quoting fund managers or so called market experts telling us that the market in Australia is still fair value.

The argument that the Aussie market is still some 25% below our all time high is just a load of rubbish. Why let the truth get in the way of a good story hey?

I guess they all need to keep talking up their book, as they make a living out of selling the story.

The facts are that our market is at an all time high right now. How so?

Because the true measure of our market takes into account the full return on the investors dollar invested.....not just the capital gain.

So when you look at the All Ords Accumulation Index, taking into dividends, we are at all time highs, just like the US.

The major difference between us and the US, is that we have much higher dividends on our shares.

The average of the S&P 500 is around 1.9% yield, and we are around 5.1% (from memory).

The accumulation index here is now at all time highs, just like the US.

Interesting times.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jul 24 2014, 10:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Back in business hey....the Titanic has been raised.

Some very big names now involved, lets see how the rebirth pans out.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jun 1 2014, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks Mark, always interested in your views.

I found in Sydney as the GFC hit, house prices surprised me and continued to lift with inflation. When I was being margin called daily on my stock portfolio, I took a great little unit in Bondi that I owned outright to market and it was fiercely bid....as was everything else within sort of 20KMS of the CBD...so I was surprised that even though the world was ending for me and all of my colleagues in the financial markets.....those people that did not have investments in shares...actually didnt know what all the fuss was about.

For them, interest rates started coming down, petrol became cheaper to fill their car....and as long as they were not worried about losing their job which was almost everyone in Australia.....life was pretty good and continued on as if nothing was wrong with the world. As long as they didnt turn on the TV news or look at the front page of a newspaper, they were non the wiser. Hence the property market seemed to keep chugging along.

I guess this time will be no different. And I bet our government will react the same way by reducing rates even lower, probably feeding the property bubble in the hope that construction investment takes over where the mining boom left off.

As an aside, almost time to be buying back into the U market Mark? U spot price hits $28 and below......breaching 8 year lows. Cigar lake floods for the 200th time, PDN and every other conventional miner putting mines on care and maintance.....20 yrs of Megatonnes to Megawatts agreement between Russia/USA comes to an end and the world moves closer to U shortage.....not to mention 50 reactors in Japan that have been off since Fukashima, and the cost of production now almost 50% higher than current spot prices.

The US with 20% of all its power needs coming from Uranium...and the power play by Russia over the last few years by funding and building almost every newly announced reactor outside of China.

Surely its now the exact opposite of the situation you outlined when we were hitting $150 US per pound.....almost time to back the truck up?

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jun 1 2014, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

More on this from Jim Willie

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/05/jim-willi...gium-buys-gold/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jun 1 2014, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi eBear.....perhaps if you just looked at that market in isolation. But when the stock market melts down like never before....will all the money be content sitting in cash long term? Hard to imagine people don't move to property under that scenario.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 31 2014, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some fantastic posts Mark, very much appreciated.

Having been following your 'nuclear' worst case scenario for some time now.....it does somewhat remind me of that movie with Jim Carrey- 'The Truman Show'.

For Truman...the world he was living in was full of actors and sets especially designed to hide the truth.....but so what? For Truman it was absolutely real and it was his reality.

You have looked at the balance sheet of the US and there is no doubt they are trading whilst insolvent....they are absolutely broke. But if they don't know...and their trading partners don't know....then does it really matter?

Re your point about not being short....this could go on for 10 more years like this. And with rates at zero...one can only assume asset prices will continue to expand.

Question for you....when the market finally does wake up and potentially falls 80% in value....what happens to property?

Does the money take flight to safety...and good old bricks and mortar become the hard currency investor start to protect themselves with.

Here in Sydney, property prices have been going through the roof....but only after a very long period of flat prices whilst every where else continued to rise year after year. Yet looking at the rest of Australia...the price of housing is not really rising greater than inflation right now, which is odd when you consider rates are near all time lows still and property yields are better now than term deposits.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on property prices in the post wasteland error.

Thanks.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 27 2014, 06:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Scully, thanks for that update.

I stole a few more today during the aftermarket auction.

The potential upside here should they find a partner to assist with some funding is greater than most could imagine.

Lets see if AM can deliver.

I spoke with Gus Simpson a week ago, who informs me that AM has been working his butt off for QPN.....so lets hope they have something to show for it hey.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 24 2014, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well the turning point is upon us IMO.

With the last of the green lights expected tonight with the signing by all parties with the granting of the SML, I expect to see an announcement next week regarding an off-take agreement, followed by funding confirmation.

I have increased my position this week again, and am now very PEN top heavy....as I believe the re rating of this little explorer cum producer is occurring before our eyes.

I am still below my average price around the 5c mark, due to some large buying just before Fukushima.....but expect that to change in coming weeks as the market welcomes the newest U producer to the stage.

Kiril.

I hold.

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 17 2014, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Very poor outcome with the announcement of Lind getting involved.

This will see the SP smashed over coming months.

Sold all my heads today, and will try and exit the options if any demand at all is there.

Kiril.

I hold (options only)
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 17 2014, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I have had an eye on our own domestic employment numbers and was scratching my head when certain media commentators were jumping for joy last week with our numbers....wondering if we had taken a page from the US book on how to measure employment numbers.

Perhaps NAB summarised the situation the best with this accurate assessment of what really played out:

"Incredibly though, according to the Statistician, the economy created 47,000 new jobs in February with a full-time rise of 80,500, the largest monthly increase since August 1991!

If that’s not a surprise in the current soft circumstances, nothing is. At least part of the measured 47k increase owes to the volatile nature of this data, a direct result of the survey’s sample size being just 0.3% of the working age population.

The small sample size means that a large amount of the month to month variability in measured employment is statistical noise and has nothing to do with the “general” trend in employment and unemployment. As a case in point, the measured unemployment rate unrounded rose from 5.99% in January to 6.047% in February: if only two more respondents in the survey had been unemployed the published unemployment rate would have been 6.1%."

I bet next month the number continues to climb toward 6.5%

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Mar 13 2014, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Gus told me that the roadshows he conducted in North America and Europe were very well received.

I wonder why people here think that $5m was all that JP Morgan and others wanted to invest.

Is it that hard for people to believe that perhaps the buying of late is coming from some of those offshore investors?

Lets await the next top 20 and see what deck chairs have been moved.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 12 2014, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Alonso,

I agree, I still find it difficult to believe it is finally turning for PEN.

A well respected fund manager I have been most fortunate to have lunch with in his board room by the name Paul Fiani (Integrity Funds and UBS before that) has a slide he presents at every briefing.

It basically says that when good times happen, either for a stock or economy...people ALWAYS extrapolate those returns out going forward as if they will continue for ever....and then base investment decisions on that.

And similarly they do the same with bad news. Right now, everyone is projecting that the current term price of U will stay here for ever (hence so many producers putting mines on care and maintenance)

The facts are, with all thats been happening in the world U market post Fukuishima, PEN has continued to tick boxes and move us closer to production.

We are now the next explorer in line to become a producer...and the people that count, the custodians of the real money (fund managers) are sitting up and noticing.

I spoke with Gus last week, and he told me that he has been doing a roadshow in Europe and the US these last 2 weeks and they have got massive support from instos there. As he mentions in the earlier BRR interview, those instos want to take up any of the rights issue not taken by shareholders.

Clearly this thing will be fully taken up, and then those funds will have to buy on market...and that is when we will see real price appreciation.

I am still below my average purchase price, and feel there is a long way to run yet. Some others have said recently....feels like the early days of PDN.

Kiril

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 12 2014, 07:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Great little update this morning from Gus via BRR.

He acknowledged that we are seeing Institutional money managers finally starting to take positions in PEN which IMO is what will really drive the SP north over coming months.

He specifically says about the recent high turn over..." you are seeing ongoing concentration of the holders of our shares".

I personally spoke with Gus on the phone last week as part of my effort to introduce some fundies that I know are active in this space....and IMO this positioning by large insto holders is just the beginning of a very exciting ride.

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 12 2014, 07:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

wren, perhaps I should be flattered that you are stalking me, but it really is a little juvenile wouldn't you agree?

These boards are for discussing stocks as I have pointed out to you before. Why don't you take your grudge back across the road to the site where it is rife and find someone else to play with?...Since I am an easy target due to my regular declaration of playing the ball not the man.

As I replied to you last time you had a whine, I don't get every investment decision right....but I am out there having a go.

Good luck champion.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 11 2014, 09:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Just read the PEN ASX update.

1 word......ELEPHANT!!!!

What about site 45 Gus?

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 11 2014, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

This article is of interest. I follow a number of these U companies. Most relevant is Uranerz due to its location:

Uranerz Energy Corporation, (URZ): Uranerz is expected to begin production at its Nichols Ranch ISR Uranium Project in Wyoming during the first quarter of 2014. The company controls a large land position in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming, in close proximity to operations of both Cameco and Uranium One, and has even signed a toll processing agreement with Cameco, which may save on operating costs. Uranerz plans to use what it calls a cost-efficient and environmentally friendly mining process of in-situ recovery mining, which employs a “leaching” solution to extract uranium from sandstone uranium deposits. In a recent interview David Talbot, senior mining analyst at Dundee Capital Markets, said he expects 500,000 pounds of production from the company in 2014 with total cash costs of about $37/pound. The company had US$7.5 million in cash and equivalents and no long-term debt as of September 30, 2103. Uranerz Energy’s stock price has risen 37% so far in 2014 to its recent price of $1.85.




http://www.investing.com/analysis/8-small-...his-year-205268


Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 6 2014, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I bought on weakness again today.

It seems that PALA was not feeding the sell side today IMO.

I have orders still sitting on the buy side should any substantial selling trigger a price fall.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 4 2014, 09:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The events of the last 3 years have set this up beautifully.

After Japan, the U price fell through the floor, subsequently making all open pit mines uneconomic. Producers have responded by putting mines on care and maintenance thereby further restricting supply.

Perfect storm?

I think so.

Very exciting time to be riding the worlds next U explorer cum/producer.

People are going to be very surprised where this ends up....and cursing when the SP was only 3c....and they didnt back the truck up.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 4 2014, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I just listened to the BRR interview with Gus. He has advised that PALA have informed him that they have stopped selling and might even buy more.

Well that takes away all the selling pressure....I am betting this will fly in the morning now.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 4 2014, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Someone just spent $200,000 buying all of 2.8.

They say no-one rings a bell at the bottom or the top.

Market is waking up to what is going on over at PEN.

I have bought 3 times in the last week, but sadly my average is still around 5c.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Mar 1 2014, 07:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

SEIS issued overnight in the US.

Nice piece of news to wake upto.

Almost there people, each step derisks us to the point that instos will be permitted to take a large position.

We have not seen line wiping like we are going to experience once they start to build a position.

Ive worked in capital markets for 20 years and having worked closely with fund managers that entire time, know exactly how this is going to play out....hence my portfolio building purchases in PEN this week.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 26 2014, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I thought all the children who play the man were left across the road....clearly not. Thats why I prefer this site.

If all your investment decisions are winners, you are a better man than me. I often get them wrong.

Good luck.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 26 2014, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Some interested buyers today.

I bought more last week, and another parcel today.

I believe the story here is being de-risked right before our eyes.

I have offered to introduce Gus to some Fund mangers I know have an appetite.

Fasten your seat belts people, I think we are close to lift off now.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Feb 23 2014, 08:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

FRR- This spec stock back doored a technology Cloud software reseller recently and was having a nice run.

Big buying from NZ fund manager Pie Funds Management has driven the price up nicely. Sadly last weekend, the CEO and major shareholder died unexpectedly, and upon re commencement of trading the SP dropped.

The price has recovered a little but the momentum is still well and truly positive IMO.

I expect 20% in this over the course of this week.

I dont own any.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Feb 10 2014, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

16 Sep 2012 this article first appeared. Those that dumped and left the market, missed out on one of the largest gains seen in US equities for some time.

http://www.stormfront.org/forum/t913707/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jan 28 2014, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"WOW how embarrassing for kiril,

haha 10 bagger!!

Looks to be going to one dollar "

The only people who should be embarrassed are those that bought at 88c.

This will hit 5c again before it sees $1.

Clearly all those that bought at the high were not around in 2000.

Kiril.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 28 2014, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"WOW how embarrassing for kiril,

haha 10 bagger!!

Looks to be going to one dollar "

The only people who should be embarrassed are those that bought at 88c.

This will hit 5c again before it sees $1.

Clearly all those that bought at the high were not around in 2000.

Kiril.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 24 2014, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I sent AM an email today. He rang me 1 hour later and we spoke for 25 minutes. Below is the email and the information we discussed. The discussion is in (Brackets).
I have AM's permission to share this.


Dear Anthony,

Given the paucity of truly helpful information in said release, further assistance is required by this shareholder.

1/ Approximately how many days/weeks or months are expected to be required by our Company to investigate and review the seismic data?


(In a word, DEPENDS. We will know in the next few weeks and will update the market ASAP at that time. We are working with consultants who will advise us….but not long now.)

2/ If the review eventually shows that further seismic is needed over the block, approx. how many days/weeks or months will be required for firstly, this seismic to be done.... and secondly, for it to be interpreted?

(6-8months.)

3/ If further seismic is not required, how long (approximately) is it expected to take to work the structural high into a drillable target? And when would drilling likely begin? And, if further seismic is required, would drilling likely begin in Quarter 2, 3 or 4 of 2014 - or is drilling in 2014 now only a remote possibility?

(6-8months from the decision to drill. This will depend on a number of variables….like access to the land. I asked if they would consider buying the land now that they know the time it took last time. AM suggested that they learned a lot from the last experience and will be able to get a faster result second time around. I asked why so long? AM said that to get the funds out of their performance bond, the company is required to go through formal process, which includes the way they tender for contracts to ensure everything is above board….especially in a country like Indonesia.

AM said that if we do have to shoot further seismic this year, it is unlikely we would be drilling this year. I suggested that the consultants that are advising us will always suggest further seismic as a way of covering themselves…so surely it will lead to that outcome. AM said they have massive expertise on the board, with a guy like Geoff Mitchell on board, who has drilled how many hundreds of wells, they are well equipped to make that assessment.)

As you can see from the above, the general thrust of this email is to query why ALL of this information wasn't included in the release in the first place?

Having read this release, I dare say every 'average' holder, and any potential new buyer of this stock walked away from their computer screen wondering how and why its writer would deem it acceptable to be so unforthcoming with pertinent information.

I write this email to you as the bottom of today's release informed readers that for any further information on said release, readers should contact you here. I'm assuming this was placed in the release in good faith.

I genuinely don't believe the above questions are unrealistic. Indeed, I am sincerely flabbergasted that the writer of the release didn't think it was relevant to inform the shareholders of the information I have asked about. Surely it was the professional and honourable thing to do.

Notwithstanding the obvious difficulty encountered by the Company in attempting to drill in Indonesia, surely that is a separate issue to HQ disseminating information in a timely and illuminating fashion.

Hoping for a genuine and expansive reply, or preferably, a further ASX release that includes answers to the above.

Regards,

Kiril Ruvinsky


Some other points we discussed:
I asked AM from what info he knows now about the results….what is it that has him excited. He said we have a much clearer understanding of the area. For instance we now know there are no Volcanics covering the area, and we can be clearer about the target.

He is confident as the 4C will reveal soon, that we still have ample cash. He appreciates that we all wanted this thing drilled long ago, and that he too is not happy with the delays…but I did agree with him that he and the board are the custodians of our investment, and it is them charged with getting the most successful outcome…and hence I am sure that if I was in his position, I would be taking the same steps. The recent data is reaffirming that we are lucky to be slap in the middle of some of the most prospective land in the world…so our chances of success are loaded in our favour. AM also mentioned other activity and opportunities, that they have been assessing, but simply would not be drawn on it as he said if they don’t materialise, then shareholders will be let down…so better to say nothing.

What I am really confident about, is that he wants this to be hugely successful, and if it means everyone hating him for 6-12 months longer as a result, then he is prepared to live with that.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 3 2013, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Here is some information on UR-Energy.

The parallels to PEN are incredible. They are just ahead of us on the curve transforming from explorer to producer.

Just google the amount of articles being written by the investment community over the last few weeks about the expected turn around in the U market over the coming year or so. I think we are going to see movement in PEN's SP before that, hence why I have started to buy script again last week.

Here is the full article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1797652-ur...-huge-potential

Here is an extract below.


There is a junior producer that is already bucking the sector trend

This company is UR-Energy (URG) a Colorado based junior uranium mining company that has done nothing short of a fantastic job on all fronts to become the first new producer of uranium fuel in the heart of the USA in more than 25 years. This is significant from a strategic perspective in that the US is a severe net importer of U3O8 producing supplying only ~10% of its nuclear fuel needs from mines on US soil. I am sure that the US government appreciates any new US domiciled producer from a strategic perspective as it contributes to increasing domestic supply of this important power generation fuel (which despite its shortcomings is one of the greenest ways to generate ample supplies of electrical fuel).

Some specific background and detail on the company

UR-Energy is a junior mining company focusing on exploration and development of uranium properties in the United States and in Canada. UR-Energy was incorporated in 2004 and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol (URE.TO) and on the NYSE under the symbol URG.

In the United States, the Company's current Wyoming properties contain NI 43-101 compliant resources of 20.55 million pounds of uranium in the measured and indicated category plus 4.67 million pounds in the inferred category. In Nebraska, the Company has leased approximately 35,000 acres (not contiguous) for initial exploration. The Company's land position, based upon an extensive in-house geologic study, was secured in areas which may contain geology similar in nature to Cameco Corporation's (CCJ) nearby Crow Butte deposit which is currently being mined by the in-situ recovery method. (click to enlarge)

In Canada, the Company's Screech Lake project is in the Thelon Basin. The Company acquired this project based upon the presence of key geological vectors and encouraging supporting data from 1970s-era exploration work. The property is located in the eastern part of the Northwest Territories. While the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan is better known and contains 65% of the known future capacity of global uranium production, the Thelon Basin is highly prospective for unconformity-type uranium deposits, the highest grade known uranium deposits.

The company's shares have been outperforming its peers

If we compare the company share price performance to the URA (an ETF of the global uranium mining industry) and with Cameco (the most investable uranium producer on earth) as we can see from the chart below, URE is up 18% in the last twelve months versus the URA ETF which is down 31% and Cameco which is flat (even with a nice spike yesterday because of a fantastic Q3). The major reason for this out performance is that the company's share price has been undergoing a re-rating as a result of transitioning from an explorer/developer to a producer in fine style and a number of significant catalysts have occurred in this regard.



The company has worked through a lot of adversity over the last 6 years. Going through the property development stages of having to apply for and receive numerous permits to obtain all of the approvals necessary to begin construction of its mining and processing facilities at its flagship Lost Creek property in Wyoming. Upon achieving the final BLM permit last October the company immediately commenced construction of their mining and processing facilities and they completed both facilities on time and on budget in July of this year and after a final inspection by the NRC they were given the go ahead to commence production which began this past August. The company is in the process of ramping up production and communicated recently that they are ahead of schedule and exceeding their and the market's expectation.

As a result of the unexpectedly quick mining and processing ramp up, the company has increased its first year (2014) production guidance to 1,000,000 pounds from their original estimate of 800,000 pounds. At this production level, UR-Energy will be producing 20% of the USA domiciled uranium production output.

A global low cost producer

The company is in the lowest cost producer quartile in the world with a direct operating cost of just over $16 per pound. Even their "all in" operating cost including ongoing development and full project capital cost recovery is just $32 per pound. Remember that most producers require a $70 price to be economic. The world leading production cost is mostly attributed to their In-Situ Recovery mining methodology, which is also a much more environmentally friendly mining methodology because it does not disturb the mining area as the name suggests. As a result of this operating cost advantage, UR-Energy will be generating significant cash flow next year even in this historically low uranium fuel price environment.

Significantly de-risked through long-term sales agreements

The company has secured approximately 50-60% of its production out to 2019 based on long-term pricing which is significantly higher than the spot price. As a result, it is estimated that the company's average selling price is currently ~$55 per pound. Also, most of these long-term agreements were negotiated a year or more ago when the long-term price was higher than it is currently.

Significant operating profit will be generated in 2014 as a result of high realizations and ultra-low operating cost

When one takes into consideration the double whammy of a high percentage of long-term pricing and an ultra low direct operating cost the company is set to deliver an operating profit before tax of ~$35 million or $0.30 per share at a 1,000,000 pound mining and processing output. Also the company is off to a shooting start since commencing production ramp up in August and is anticipated to produce at least 150,000 pounds during the ramp up period in the latter part of this year. This initial production will also contribute ~$5 million of operating profit on the final quarter of the year (if the company is able to achieve its cost estimates) which will further help the company to financially de-risk going into its first full year of production next year.

Significant de-risking of the balance sheet has just occurred

The company has impressed it current shareholders over the last year during mine and processing facility construction with it use of debt to finance construction and operating expense as opposed to taking the easy path of issuing shares and further diluting existing shareholders' equity holding. Finding debt for most mining juniors is a mammoth task but this company does not have typical management. The company is extremely well managed and directed and it partnered with the RMB Australia Holdings Limited for two loans to provide the required working capital to fund the completion of the mining facilities and pay operating expense. These higher cost loans were taken out to bridge the reception of a long awaited $34 million Wyoming State bond, which has very favorable terms. The great news the company just announced on October 24th is that this state loan finally made through all of the layers of bureaucracy and has been granted to the company. So now the higher cost loans have been paid off but the company is keeping one active to draw up to $10 million as necessary to further develop its other Wyoming properties to further increase its production output. One upcoming cost is the closing of its purchase of the Pathfinder property, which is currently owned by Areva (AREVA.PA) the French nuclear giant. The property is within the core of the company's Wyoming mining developing zone and will substantially increase the company's uranium resource. The purchase is expected to close in the current quarter.

The current cash balance is estimated to be in the ~$9.3 million range. The cash balance at the end of September was $6.3 million and the balance of their loans was $31 million at the end of the quarter as well. The securing of the new state bond facility of $34 million was immediately used to pay off both loans leaves leaving a $3 million cash balance to add to its end of quarter balance. There was also some origination fees on the loans that were returned to the company by the lender (due to the early repayment) as well as the canceling of some warrants.

The Investment thesis has two aspects:

1.The primary driver for this stock to resume it breakout and rise to the $2 level is the completion of the re-rating process of the company's shares as it fully completes its transition from a developer to a full fledged producer. Though the company is now producing, the market will be looking to see if the three levels of operating cost estimates (page 15 of company presentation) telegraphed by the company are achieved as well as the meeting of its quarterly production volume guidance for 2014. This is the company specific driver to double the share price. This company was a net cash burner for the last 9 years and has now transitioned to a cash generator. UR-Energy shares have been outperforming the industry over the last year as its superb management and direction have accomplished much:
•Constructed a world class mine and processing facility in super geo-politically friendly Wyoming on time and on budget
•Utilized debt for the bulk of the construction as opposed to continued dilution of equity (which is very shareholder friendly for a pre-production junior miner)
•Utilized an ISR mining methodology with world leading low operating cost and an estimated 87% IRR for the Lost Creek project
•Ramped up production quicker than expected and poised to produce 1 million pounds of fuel next year and generating ~$35 million ($0.30 per share) of direct operating profit (their current net debt is ~24 million pre closing of the Pathfinder assets) as well as an estimated $5 million from their production this fall if the cost estimates are met.
•Used solid forward thinking to secure long-term sales agreements for ~50-60% of their production on a go forward basis in this uncertain market thus significantly de-risking the company
•Stayed true to their word in achieving a very strategically beneficial loan facility from the State of Wyoming
2.The second aspect in this thesis is macro view with respect to the turnaround in the sector. This other necessary ingredient to fuel the rise in equity value is at least a moderate improvement in the macro environment where the uranium spot price gets back to around the $50 per pound level. Without some level of macro improvement, investors will be hesitant to buy into the sector. The sector sentiment must improve to add support to each of the company specific catalysts as they occur over the next year to eighteen months. This is seen by many market watchers as inevitable at some point in the late to early to mid term as the utilities begin to go to market to purchase more long-term supplies; this as a result of the Japanese reactors coming on stream and removing the psychological Japanese fuel inventory overhang as their utilities begin to consume this inventory. As the spot and long-term prices begin to move up, undoubtedly the equity values of the various explorers, developers and producers will begin to move up very rapidly. This as a result of their share prices being so depressed that any tangible sign of a trend change in the commodity will have a very positive impact. And as well we know as investors the leaders will get the investment dollars first so leading companies like Cameco and UR-Energy will lead the way up in a recovery.
The average price target for the company is $1.70 from the analysts that cover it and they also have an average rating on the stock of Strong Buy. If the company achieves their production and operating profit projections next year, the stock will be very undervalued trading at just 3.7 times 2014 direct operating profit. Also from a NAV view point, the company is trading at just 0.5 times its NAV so if it was trading at its NAV, the share price would be $2.20 versus its current $1.10 (at the time of writing) which is a double.

Investing in UR-Energy will require patience as it will likely take a while for the sentiment to improve and the coincidental increase in the uranium spot price. The stock had already broken out to the upside this past summer but began facing resistance earlier in the uptrend than it should have as macro level news concerning Japan's slower than expected plant restart process released over the last several months caused the commodity spot price to fall from the $40 to the $35 level resulting in the entire sector coming under selling pressure and UR-Energy's share price re-rating getting partially postponed.

The risks to this thesis (which are very important to consider when making an investment choice):

Macro

•Commodity Price - though the uranium spot price is currently at an eight year low, it is conceivable that if the Japanese make the very unlikely choice of not restarting its plants and dump their large fuel inventory, the commodity price will stay at these levels for a much longer time frame. Though this will not hurt UR-Energy that much due to its hedging of a large portion of production pre-sold at long-term prices which are much higher than spot, the sentiment would take another blow and investors would hold off buying into these companies for a longer period of time (until more of the ~70 reactors under construction come on line).
•Headline - Though it was hardly the fault of the Fukushima Daiichi plant itself that it failed (but rather an incredible 55-foot wall of water that inundated it), the plant melted down and consequences have been socially and financially huge. I do not believe the meltdown took any lives, but the inconvenience and financial cost to the Japanese people (who are already jammed on a pretty small island relative to their near 100 million person population) has been very considerable. A further incident such as this would put a spike in the sector's heart with no relief for some time to come
Company Specific

•Production - The company does not achieve its production volumes thereby reducing its operating profit thus reducing the company's equity valuation
•Operating Cost - The company does not achieve its direct operating cost estimates ($16 per pound for direct and $23 per pound including development)
•Reserve Life - The company indicates an 8 plus year mine life at Lost Creek. There is a risk that the reserves were over estimated and the RLI is lower than previously thought
•Liquidity - If operating profits are significantly impacted by volume or margins being significantly below expectations the company could develop a working capital issue
In my experience with this company, Wayne Heili and his management team have proven that they are world class over and over again and certainly have earned my trust and respect. They have developed the company into a very solid junior producer even within a multi decade sector depressed environment to the point that even in this environment the company is undervalued and a very steady investment. One other important factor concerning the company is that a very significant percentage of shares are in solid hands. BlackRock has a very large minority ownership stake in the company, which is a positive as a very significant volume of shares being in very steady hands.

Some Catalysts

Q4 report - this final quarterly report for 2013 will have the company's first production revenue reported along with the various levels of operating cost and margins as well as a fresh guidance for these and production levels for 2014. If they are on track with current estimates then this will put strong wind under the share price.

Commodity price - if the sentiment improves quicker than anticipated due to a number of factors (including reduced supply as a result of a major higher cost producer shutting in significant production or if the Japanese announce a fast track of reactor re-starts), the spot price will jump as well as the share prices of the miners (particularly those seen as leaders)

Reserves - the company is expected to report on drilling results prior to year end. A surprise to the upside with respect to resource and or reserves would be positive support for the share price

Buyout - UR-Energy has a brand new world class mine and processing facility with a 2 million pound initial capacity, which is in production within the heart of the USA (which is a severe net importer of the fuel that powers a large percentage of the nation's electricity generation). The company also has future development properties surrounding its Lost Creek producing mine. Along with the million pounds of production next year comes free cash flow and profitability. This is indeed a takeout target and the time for a major to acquire the company is now at the perceived low point in the cycle.

Conclusion

I see little downside to this story as a result of the high percentage of long-term pre-priced agreements and the ISR mining methodology with its ultra low direct operating cost, but if all heck broke loose the share price could get back to the 90-cent level a ~20% down side from the price at the time of writing. On the upside, if the company meets it production and margin estimates and the macro picture improves even moderately, I can easily see this stock price well over $2 per share in less than a year from now providing a doubling of one's investment.

The uranium sector may not be for everyone but neither was the solar sector after the European government subsidies started disappearing and the Chinese producers kept dumping production into the market and the producer share prices were decimated (and I mean decimated). But in retrospect, that was the time to buy... when sentiment was awful. Well sentiment toward the uranium sector is just as awful so this may (and I stress may) be the time to wade into the sector to take an initial position in a thriving, leadership company like UR-Energy ahead of the herd.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 31 2013, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Please...someone tell me this isn't happening.

How can shareholders stand by and watch this happen?

Are they for real?

We have a $20m loan approved, but in order to get it...we need to prepay the interest on that loan.

We dont have the cash to do it so we found a US investor who is going to lend us $500K, with a $75K est fee and interest at 12% secured against the assets of the company.

Once we secure the $20m loan we can pay back the bridging loan.

Who the hell is of the belief that this is real?

Am I the only one who see's this to be scam?
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 2 2013, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I am providing this update for QPN shareholders as an outline of discussions that I have had with various company representatives over the last week.

[/size]

3 Weeks ago I emailed our CEO, Anthony Milewski asking for either a meeting should he be in Indonesia, or a discussion via telephone. This email, much like many others sent by supporters of our business was ignored.



My personal life experience has taught me that you are just as much to blame in these situations if you stand by and do nothing…so I have decided to take massive action.



I spoke to a very well respected mining analyst I once worked with in Perth, whom I explained the current situation with QPN to. I asked him to introduce me to an oil & gas executive who he has known for some time, and has worked for the majors in Asia.



This introduction then started the wheels turning for me regarding bringing about some change at QPN. After 2 discussions and a fair amount of due diligence, the executive came back to me with some very encouraging opinion about QPN's prospects, and indicated he was interested in getting involved.



My thinking at this point was that the current board has been given ample time to communicate with its shareholders about the delays of the last 18 months. I am of the belief that we are all big enough to accept that delays happen, especially in this part of the world. What we can no longer accept is being treated like mushrooms.



Last week I emailed the company secretary with my proposal to make board changes. In order to replace our CEO, we require at least 50% of votes. Because I wanted to minimise the cost to the business of calling an EGM, and issue the company with a notice pursuant to Sections 203D of the Corporations Act to do so, I requested that the CV of my proposed new director be added to the AGM pack and put up as a resolution for voting.



That morning I received an email reply from the secretary telling me that AM will be calling me.



AM did call me and we talked for around 5mins. In short, he asked me to wait until the company report was released, and that he would then call me afterwards to discuss. My explained that I doubted very much that the release of the report would change anything in my mind, as no new information could be contained in it as it covered a period of time now past, and that any new information would need to be released via ASX.



Well, the report was released the next day, and yes, it does feel like they tried to include some new news to help pacify shareholders.



AM, true to his word did call me again yesterday to continue our conversation. Here is a summary:





The seismic data only appeared after they purchased the land…they didn't know it even existed prior to that. I pushed him for a drill date….even an estimate and he would not be drawn on that.



He did agree that the seismic interpretation should all be complete in no more than 2 months.



I kept raising the issue regarding a cap raising and that they have now burnt all their supporters and hence will not be able to get a cap raising away. His answer was that we will cross the bridge when we come to it.



I said to him that basically their strategy is one of hope….we use all the cash left to identify the best place to drill our maiden hole and then we drill. We then prey that we hit gas otherwise it's all over. He basically agreed but did keep swaying me to the idea that the seismic should be pretty good. I said if it was, why didn't the previous owner of the land drill it, since that data is 20 years old. He said the previous owner was the government (that's news to me) and that the price of oil has increased since then so the economics are now better.



I asked about Moyes relationship…and he said they are bringing them opportunities but in this climate they need to be very selective and my feeling there is nothing going on there either.



He also mentioned that Ken is working round the clock on the Indo situation…..he kept trying to tell me that unless you have worked there, you wouldn't understand how long things take there.



He asked what my intention was about nominating new directors onto the board. I explained that the only one I was looking to change was him.



He squirmed a bit and said well you understand that it's not me, it's a team effort…we are a team. I said no, you lead that team and for the 12 months you have been leader your communication has been unacceptable, we are all big boys and can handle the delays, we can't handle being ignored. I told him I was in Indo 2 weeks ago, emailed him for a meeting and he ignored my email.



He said that I can call or email him any time and he would respond going forward. I said he will be making more effort to communicate with shareholders.



AM asked me what I would now do if I was in his position, and I answered I would do the same thing re trying to obtain and interpret seismic now that it has come to light.



Basically I said I was prepared to give him the next 2 months to complete the data interpretation, and that we expected improved communication.



Summary:



I still feel particularly bullish about our prospects and for this reason I am still on board.

I expect we will start to see a better level of communication from the management team. Looking at the map of who all our neighbours are tells me everything I need to know about the opportunity and why I am still here.





Kiril



[size="3"]I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Aug 21 2013, 01:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

And just like magic, he reappears.

It was 2 days ago, I was pondering the current market and trying to make clarity of what is happening in the US....and thought to myself, what I would do for a helping of Marks thoughts on the current situation. And just like magic, you have re-appeared.

Thank you so much for returning to give us an update on your thinking.

I have missed you, it has been far tooooooooo long.

As always, markets tend to overshoot...so we may well see this rise another 50% as you stated, but the problem is only getting bigger.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: May 18 2013, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"could it be resmed have decided to take them out before they cut through and it costs them in the 100s of millions rather than in double digit millions?"

Are you serious?

Do you really believe what you wrote here?

Have you actually looked at the fundamentals of what you have bought?

There are going to be lots of tears here, that is a given.

We will look back at this in 5 years when they still havent turned a profit and say what a crazy market that was. This stock reminds me of 2000.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: May 13 2013, 07:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Realised that Monash is not turning up with a bag of cash and have left the building I would say.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: May 6 2013, 11:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

You are well and truely dillusional if you really believe that.

The market cap of this stock is way out of line with its real value.

Holders must just be pinching themselves. If recent buyers arent taking the opportunity to become free carried then they are crazy IMO.

Ofcourse long term holders are still under water.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: May 3 2013, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The chart looks great so its no surprise the volume has increased as traders arrive.

THe US story I will believe when I see it.

They did the OTC listing in the US over a year ago, and if you look at the trades todate....nothing.

So lets not speculate until the evidence supports that the buying is US.

At the end of the day, if the business makes no money, we are going back from where we came.



Kiril.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: May 1 2013, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

This outfit is years away from any meaningful revenue. They are low on cash and need to raise again.

Bruce Mathieson gave them a million, and now Pattersons are pumping it prior to their next cap raising.

They even ran into a speed hump last week regarding their us approvals...so the path to bottom line profits is far from clear.

The market cap is no way justified IMO.

Kiril.

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 28 2012, 07:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Picked up another 5m oppies today.



Have been waiting months for these and finally someone lost patience.



I have some pretty big buy orders still on the bid at .1c just incase it becomes panic all stations.


Kiril.



I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Dec 14 2012, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

There is a fine line between hope and fundamental belief Melua....and often you need a bit of both to have a high conviction.

What was it that had you convinced that JPR would flow like all the areas around them? Or that KGL would get a politically volatile area up and running?

There are some serious players in QPN, and my research suggests these guys are right more often than not. And yes...a fair amount of hope too.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 10 2012, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Well I decided to eat more of my own cooking and have bought an additional 13m shares since my last post a few weeks ago.

Interestingly the comapny has not yet announced the record date for the long awaited cap raise at .6c, however the price has recently lifted well past there with someone over the last 2 days taking away the last of the .7c sellers and taking some 20m shares at .8c in the last 2 days.

I have a feeling it is just 1 or 2 players taking a position....just a hunch but the buying started on close 2 days ago and continued all day yesterday.

I will be taking my FULL allocation once the final raise opens, as I expect to see this well past 1c in coming weeks.

I spoke with the company a few weeks ago and they said they were just awaiting final approvals on permits which were now pretty much all done.

I will be voting yes to all resolutions....particularly like the alignment of performance shares that see the MC all the way to $500M. Not so sure about the free gift at current MC but can live with that as I truely think this team are going to deliver us a world class asset.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 3 2012, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

And I sense yet another real estate industry representative talking up what can only be described as a sick market (and that is being kind).

All we are seeing is sellers finally meeting the market as fear of their property remaining unsold over the 3 month property hibernation only to come back to an even weaker market in Feb 2013.

The Melbourne property market has always been a great barometer of the national economy as all previous rises and falls have always been led by that state, due to its high percentage of manufacturing employees. When manufacturing contracts, as we have been seeing over the last 5 years, those jobs lost in that sector have a perfect correlation to property activity in that state.

Talk to any manufacturing employee today and ask them how confident they are of their job being there when they get back from holidays in 2013. Until that sentiment changes, we will not see any sustained lift in property prices in Australia....the exception being Perth.

Kiril
  Forum: Safe As Houses

kiril
Posted on: Nov 3 2012, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I think the strategy with this management team now must be one of step back....let them deliver and only then will we consider to buy its stock.

IMO management have zero credibility. They have continued to make bold predictions about various markets and ventures that they have entered into, and not yet once delivered on any stated goals.

I met with a fund manager a few years ago that were very supportive of CBD and its business plan. They backed that support becoming a substantial holder of script.

The company has burnt that relationship and many others by continually under delivering.

I simply cant trust anything that comes from the company, which gives it a real credibility problem. Having worked with analysts and fundies for 20 years now, I know that one of their top boxes that needs to be ticked before making an investment conviction is 'quality of management'. Hence without fund support, this stock will never rerate in any meaningful way.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Oct 23 2012, 11:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"Conduct joint studies with various Universities on project areas identified by Pak Thamrin’s research and apply for PSC’s over these areas.
The last year has seen the generation of a further 17 project areas that are currently under review for availability,prioritisation and fundability.
In addition to this process the Company is also in advanced discussions on several strategic relationships that will see Quest with greater technical, personnel and funding capability. These arrangements would see the Company having operational control and a significant retained interest in a number of these project groups whilst avoiding unnecessary shareholder dilution."

Wow, this aspect of the announcement was clearly missed by the market this morning. The company has basically articulated to the market that there are a number of A1 project areas that are still available with potential applications for PSC's (17 identified from their review.)
And that QPN plans to be the vehicle for Thamrin et al to access these for development.

I have no doubts that this group of people are in the best possible position in Indonesia to win these areas. We will look back at the market cap here in 12 months time and say can you believe I could buy as many of these as I wanted for under 1 cent.

Kiril.

I hold.

  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 13 2012, 10:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Chuk, changing your mind on holding a position is not against the law, you are well within your right to.

I just believe you should have told the people who have been following you for months, that your circumstance has changed, and that while you are still positive about the stock, you have found a better investment for your capital.

It is what it is.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jul 13 2012, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

"There was no way at the time that I could be sure if the move was a good one or if it was going to backfire.

I did not see any point in trying to influence anyone else to do the same as it could just as easily have backfired considering how undervalued KGL was and is"

There in lies the problem Chuk, all the credability you have been building up over the last 12 months....GONE!!!

The line there says it all- you did not see the point of influencing others to buy the stock. Is there a better definition of manipulation? In this statement you reveal that the only reason you post is to influence others to buy. Dont you feel the obligation to let those you already influenced into KGL know that your strong thoughts about KGL have changed?

I have had my share of run ins with Melua over the years, but at least when he changes his mind on a position he holds, he tells the market if he is selling. I think many here forget that they cast long shaddows, and with that I believe comes some responsibility IMO.

Kiril
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: May 1 2012, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Further proof this week :

http://www.smh.com.au/business/hammers-fal...0430-1xv26.html

With Sydney auction clearance rates on Saturday at 48.8%, do we really need further proof that the Australian Housing market has crashed. Remember that figure is only after they account for properties withdrawn prior to the auction.

At least this will finally shut the mouths of thousands to guests at BBQ's around the country that talk the sharemarket down and say that property never goes down.

Cash is king.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Apr 30 2012, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Balance, the market is down 20% in price.

We have an office in the most expensive part of the city, as well as some in more average areas...however none are in areas further than 15Kms from the CBD. So I do NOT have a sense of what is going on in the outer areas, but cant imagine its any brighter.

The upper end, being $5m plus is in real trouble. If you have the cash you can really get a bargin. The problem is that bargin might look expensive in 12-18 months, and it is exactly that mentality that has buyers sitting on their hands.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Apr 30 2012, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Balance, the market is down 20% in price.

We have an office in the most expensive part of the city, as well as some in more average areas...however none are in areas further than 15Kms from the CBD. So I do NOT have a sense of what is going on in the outer areas, but cant imagine its any brighter.

The upper end, being $5m plus is in real trouble. If you have the cash you can really get a bargin. The problem is that bargin might look expensive in 12-18 months, and it is exactly that mentality that has buyers sitting on their hands.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Apr 29 2012, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

The rhetoric I am reading in the press this last week about house price rises is laughable.

We operate a business in Sydney that is heavily involved with 13 real estate offices, mainly in the eastern suburbs and inner city region.

The market over the last 12 months is down around 20%. The sales this year thus far have continued to be very soft. There is no urgency amongst the few buyers that there are. The only people selling in this market are those that need to, and buyers are starting to realise that.

I simply can not see this situation improving for the remainder of this year. Some real opportunities emerging at the moment. The risk though in such a market is that the buyers hold off buying in expectation of further falls, which become self fullfilling.

Yet the agents interviewed yesterday all put on a brave face.

Interesting because when I go to the sales meetings, the principals are all happy to admit that RE 101 is all about telling people the market is improving...which in any other industry is known as lying.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Apr 13 2012, 07:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I bought a few million more yesterday.

This one is going to go all the way.

Some impressive nearology.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 3 2012, 01:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Completely different business now.

Have a good look at them now......Interesting opportunity.

Kiril.

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Apr 3 2012, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

I spent a bit of time researching them last night.

I decided to buy a few this morning, and 35 seconds later all hell let loose.....someone wanted stock bad.

I really like the prospect here.

I also back Gus Simpson big time.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Jan 22 2012, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the posts, as always I love reading your take on the world.

Early last year I went to a presentation by a well regarded commentator on the US economy, who was brought our by Perenial Funds Management as a key note speaker for the national roadshow. I cant remember his name, but he really gave the most interesting speach about the situation the US finds itself in, running along the same lines as what you have discussed.

He did explain a very interesting outcome that outlined that in the US, local governments or state governments were NOT allowwed to declare bankruptcy. He explained that the necessary changes to US laws were being made to change this situation. He described that once the laws were amended, the states would be able to go back to its retired public servants and say, OK..we know we owe you $60K per annum for the rest of your life, but we are unable to pay that figure. You have 2 choices now, either accept that we will now pay you $30K per annum for the rest of your life, or we will have no choice but to file bankruptcy and you risk the chance of seeing nothing, you choose.

Hence I believe there are plenty in the US that are aware of the problem and are looking to move in the right direction.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jan 20 2012, 07:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Good luck with it Bambamm.

Whilst I am not involved in the day to day, I manage a finance brokerage business. I know my guys use to write a fair bit of business with Bank West, however if you negotiate hard, or have a broker who writes lots of debt negotiate on your behalf...you will find the big four are almost impossible to beat.

We also have a line of funding which we white label from a wholesale funder, and I think I heard one of the boys on the phone yesterday talking to a client say the rate was 6.20% variable....so the deals are out there.

Best of luck with it.

Kiril

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jan 19 2012, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Three year fixed rates are a fair bit cheaper today than the variable rate.

The big four are offering the best deals depending on the size of the lending.

Right now ANZ will give you a discount of 1% off the standard variable rate if your loan is over $500K. For loans over $1m we are seeing discounts over 1%.

Some very attractive deals out there today in a very competitive market place.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Jan 14 2012, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

QE3 can take many forms.

Kiril
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Nov 30 2011, 07:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

No worries Melua. Lets leave it in the past, very happy to move on.

I now only watch INT with one eye, spending more time growing the one business I can control....and thats the one I operate.

However as I mentioned, this is the first time for a long time that I am starting to feel very confident about the future of INT.

As each month passes, INT hands another cheque to their developers....with the feedback I am getting, these developers just love the idea that they are now getting money paid to them each month, as a share of the infrastructure spend of their tenants/owners. This is in turn bringing new developers to us, as the good word is spreading.

Kiril.

I hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 29 2011, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Sounds like there are too many facts to your story missing.

The new responsible lending guidelines would require the broker to demonstrate the clients can afford the purchase...if he cant he will lose his license.

We operate a lending business and often turn away clients that we know we can get an approval for, but whom we know cant afford to make the repayments and eat.

Kiril.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kiril
Posted on: Nov 26 2011, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Thanks Melua.

I am well aware of all the issues around this type of funding arrangement. I am also aware of the many changes Evans was able to bring to the contract which La Jolla which did help swing the balace a little closer to INT. Sadly, the company still needs capital to assist us in moving to the final stages of what I still firmly believe will be a most profitable annuity income stream business.

We really had few options. A capital raising would have had the exact same effect, issuing stock at a discount, with the underwriter then dumping all of the shortfall right back on market. Even until yesterdays close, La Jolla have only sold less than half of the shares they could have converted....so they are still being true to their word as per what has been agreed.

Funding issues aside, the business is finally starting to deliver what I have always hoped it was capable of doing. Sadly, it has taken 12-18 months longer to get here, but I am very very pleased with where we are today. This month, for the first time all year I have a real comfort that we will not only survive, but will indeed achieve the goals I had set myself for the shareprice.

The hints are there for anyone to see in the management address yesterday. Annual revenue from current contracts estimated to be $6.2m upon full tenant uptake and occupation. We have a number of real company makers in our sight, with one in particular taking shape right in front of our eyes today. The RVA deal alone is mind boggling. They are the peak body for the retirement village industry, with inexcess of 800 village and associate members nationally....consider that!!!

Their members can now make a real substantial revenue add back from a previously sunk cost... And the best thing is that INT have a fantastic relationship with them that has been developing over the last 2 years. All of the hard work that has been done behind the scenes which has simply been not seen by shareholders is now starting to bare fruit.

Regarding Andrew, yes he is a fantastic guy in my opinion, and I truely wish him well for the future. He has played his part in getting the business to this point, and now others will build on his foundations.

Melua, I remember you sending me a text message 2 years ago yesterday, when you walked out of the AGM in Melbourne after talking to Bob Gestro after the meeting...your sentiment was extremly bullish and to quote you, you called INT an "outright buy".
The next 2 years did not go as planned, and I really do wish I had followed your lead and sold when you did. Your advice that management not delivering on stated objectives was a sign to exit would have saved me an absolute bundle. The lesson learnt is well deserved. However, just as all the signs then said sell, the signs today to me say time to buy. The turn around is clearly in place, and now the proof is coming in, almost weekly. However the market still does not trust nor believe, and that is well deserved...who can blame investors for holding back.

My discussions with Evans and Kiddle have confirmed that we have a substantial first mover advantage in a business model that has real genuine demand. The company is not releasing any information until it is done, with all of their attention focused on this very specific business model, which I still believe has a massive amount of bluesky.

Enough from me, with too many haters across the road, I am pretty much done with sharing with the INT followers.

Kiril

I hold
  Forum: By Share Code

kiril
Posted on: Nov 24 2011, 07:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 879

Hi guys, if someone could point me in the right direction, I would be most grateful.

I am not sure if this is avoidable or if it is just happening to me....but each time I open a thread where there is a Board room radio interview or any other sound recording, the recording automatically starts to play.

I then need to scroll all the way down to the recording and stop the recording or alternatively mute my computer until I have finished reading that thread. This is MOST annoying. I am wondering if this is just my computer/settings experincing this or if this was happening to everyone????

Thanks in advance.

Kiril.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

5 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Cant find what you are looking for? Show all active topics from the last 3 months


New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)



TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING