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TWE, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 24 2019, 11:34 AM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 20 2019, 12:24 PM

OPINION - Elizabeth Knight
Insider selling: When executives sell shares, they better have a good reason
QUOTE
There is really no successful way to spin the news that a company's senior executives or directors have sold some of their shares.


QUOTE
The case of Kogan aside, research released last year by stockbroker Wilsons found that there was a correlation between insider sales and market underperformance.

The third example of insider selling comes from Treasury Wine Estate. Its chief executive Michael Clarke has sold stock three times over the past year - most recently in the days following the 2019 earninge result.

The market virtually ignored the share sale and instead concentrated on a positive earnings result that contained stronger than expected cash flows.

When Mr Clarke sold stock earlier this year the share price took a battering - as it coincided with a hedge fund suggesting the wine company had inflated its earnings.

Ultimately there is no easy way to cushion an insider's move to sell stock.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companie...823-p52k4z.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 20 2019, 12:24 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:12 AM

CEO has a tax problem - sells another load of shares. Market a bit more forgiving than in May this year when he sold 400,000 shares
QUOTE
Change of Director’s Interest Notice – Michael Clarke
The attached Appendix 3Y relates to changes in the relevant interest in the Company’s
securities held by the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Treasury Wine Estates Limited, Michael
Clarke.

Mr Clarke has acquired 452,205 ordinary shares in the Company following the vesting of
performance rights under the F17 Long Term Incentive Plan, and a further 158 ordinary shares
in the Company following the allocation of matched shares in accordance with the 2017 Share
Cellar Plan.

In order to meet tax obligations relating to this F17 Long Term Incentive, Mr Clarke sold 47%
(212,537 shares) of the total number of shares vesting, pursuant to an irrevocable voluntary
advance election entered into with Board approval under which the shares were sold at the
opening of the trading window following the release of the Company’s F19 full year results.
Following these transactions Mr Clarke continues to hold a significant relevant interest in
1,583,066 Company securities, made up of 782,


Total short positions as at 13/8/19 = 4.11%
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:12 AM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 8 2019, 02:06 PM

Not a good day to come out with a positive announcement.

TWE delivers 25% EBITS growth, Operating Cashflow up 36% F19 NPAT up 16% to $419.5m and EPS up 18% to 58.4 cps1

QUOTE
Announcement highlights
• NSR2 up 17% to $2,831.6m; NSR increase of 12% on a constant currency basis represents the strongest
organic growth rate in company history3
• F19 EBITS4 up 25% to $662.7m in line with guidance and EBITS margin accretion to 23.4%, up 1.6ppts
• NSR, NSR per case and EBITS growth delivered across all regions, led by volume growth and price
realisation in the Luxury and Masstige segments
• NPAT5 up 16% to $419.5m; EPS6 growth to 58.4 cents per share, up 18%
• Full year cash conversion 75.8%, ahead of the 60-70% guidance range, with Operating Cashflow7 up
36%. Lease adjusted net debt to EBITDAS 1.7x8
, an improvement of 0.2x in F19
• Globally, shipments are broadly in line with depletions and forward days inventory cover are in line with
the prior year9
• In Asia, increased allocation of Luxury and Masstige wine and outstanding execution through TWE’s
competitively advantaged business model delivered another year of stellar growth
• US route-to-market changes have been successfully embedded, with TWE now focused on leveraging
the new operating model to drive improved performance and margin accretion in F20 and beyond
• TWE has today confirmed the acquisition of French production and vineyard assets in the Bordeaux region
of France and announced the significant future expansion of Luxury winemaking infrastructure in South
Australia, both representing key investments that will support continuation of TWE’s premiumisation
strategy
• TWE reiterates F20 guidance of reported EBITS growth of approximately 15% to 20%10, with F20 full year
underlying cash conversion expected to be broadly in line with F19




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 02:06 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 8 2019, 10:44 AM

TWE's note this morning seems to have soothed the market - SP low was $15.28 currently @ $16.695 Short positions at 2nd August, 2019 - 4.52%

QUOTE
TWE affirms guidance for 2019 financial results
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) notes a research report published by GMT
Research which makes claims in regards to the Company’s underlying operating
performance.

The Company confirms that the claims made by GMT Research are false and misleading.
TWE will announce its preliminary financial results for the 2019 fiscal year on 15 August and
at that time will discredit claims made in this report.

TWE notes it has already provided guidance on key metrics including P&L, balance sheet,
and cash conversion and has no further comment.

The Company is referring this matter to the Australian Securities and Investments
Commission (ASIC).


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=twe
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 10:44 AM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 23 2019, 09:05 PM

Hong Kong research firm warns on Treasury Wine Estates' earnings
Sarah Thompson and Anthony Macdonald
Aug 8, 2019 — 10.30am

QUOTE
A boutique equities research firm has taken aim at Treasury Wine Estates, warning clients the wine company may have used acquisition accounting to inflate profits.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/hong-kong-r...20190808-p52f1a

SP down 4.47% this morning - currently $15.82



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 23 2019, 09:05 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 22 2019, 03:48 PM

FWIW - Citi rates TWE as Sell

[quote]Citi expects a strong result for FY19, given the premium wine sales into China. Recent data on the wine industry have reinforced the view that growth is likely to be driven by Asia, particularly China.

Meanwhile, the broker notes the company is still losing share in the US. Sell rating and $14.90 price target retained.[/quote

Short positions as at 17th July, 2019 - 4.31%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=twe

SP $16.56 - up 1.35% today
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


nipper
post Posted: Jul 22 2019, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE
Penfolds owner Treasury Wine Estates would not give any extra details to the market on Monday on the implications for its own business of the latest industry-wide export figures that showed the value of Australian wine sales to China rose 7 per cent to $1.2 billion in the year ended June 30.

Industry body Wine Australia announced on Monday that while the value of Australian wine sold to China by hundreds of local players had reached a financial year record, volumes in financial 2019 dropped substantially by 16 per cent. The decline stemmed largely from a slide in low-end commercial wines.

A Treasury Wines spokeswoman said the company was now in blackout ahead of the results and the one-off update last time had been a deliberate move to ''reinforce caution on using the Wine Australia data as a direct read-out of Treasury Wine Estate performance''. That point had been made clear, and there was no need to do it again.
(being)
QUOTE
Treasury Wine Estates has reinforced the message its China business is delivering solid growth even though an industry body’s official export figures show a broad decline in volumes to China from Australian wine producers overall. Treasury took the unusual step [last] Wednesday of making an announcement to the ASX saying it had “continued positive momentum in Asia with record depletions delivered for the nine months ended March 2019”. The company also said there had been strong sales across the important Chinese New Year festive period.

It said investors should not use the Wine Australia export data released every three months as a proxy for Treasury Wine’s trading performance




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
balance
post Posted: Jun 26 2019, 07:33 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 14 2019, 07:10 PM

That % of shorts now up to 3.76%. Nothing compared to some short sold high flyers like SYR and JB hifi but it has climbed.



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
nipper
post Posted: May 10 2019, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE
Penfolds is launching a $280-per-bottle French champagne to join its premium reds, brandy and other products, but Treasury Wine Estates’ Angus Lilley says it’s unfair to portray the expansion as a shift towards a Coca-Cola-type, ubiquitous brand.

It is the first French champagne released in 175 years of Penfolds, and is part of a joint venture with family-owned firm Champagne House Thienot.

The first version of the new champagne, made with grapes from the 2012 harvest in France, will hit the shelves in June and be available in all the major markets including China, Australia, Europe and the United States.
- Champagne, a Californian red wine range by 2022, a fortified shiraz infused with a popular spirit called Baijiu for the Chinese market. Definitely getting away from their roots, leveraging off the Penfolds story. It's all ethanol, seems to be the thinking.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 14 2019, 07:10 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 14 2019, 05:55 PM

Updated chart and shortman stats. Looking at the shortman data it would appear some are betting against Mr Clarke's enthusiasm for China's appetite. Total short positions at 8/2/19 = 2.86%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=twe
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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