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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Jun 29 2021, 09:42 AM
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The lockdown stocks play was out in full force yesterday on the ASX yesterday as travel and aviation companies were sold off but retailers – especially onliners – saw strong gains.

The banks and big miners held firm and helped the ASX-200 end with a smaller fall than seemed possible at the start of the day.

The ASX 200 lost just 0.7 points to close at 7307.3, having been as low as 7273.7 (0.3%) in late morning trade.

Travel stocks were under pressure as borders slammed shut on news of COVID outbreaks in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and the Northern Territory. Webjet, Qantas, and Flight Centre all declined by about 4%. Rex shares were down 2.4%.

Shares in Helloworld fell more than 2% and Corporate Travel saw a 2.6% loss.

Those that saw rises were led by online homewares group, Temple & Webster – their shares rose more than 10% as investors reckoned they might repeat their strong growth of the 2020 pandemic and beyond.

Likewise shares in Kogan jumped sharply – up by more than 6% for the same reason. But it is already suffering from being overstocked so any gains might be very slow in coming, if at all.

JB HiFi had also did well in the 2020 pandemic but investors saw small gains this time – the shares up just 1.2%.

Shares in rival Harvey Norman did better – up 2.1% but gains for these two and Kogan are based on a repeat of last year’s strong surge in home office and working from home equipment and tax write offs.

You have to wonder how much legs the home office boom will have this time around if the lockdown persists.

That’s probably also why shares in Wesfarmers only managed a 1.3% gain, despite Bunnings and Officeworks doing very well in 2020.

Shares in women’s fashionwear group Mosaic brands (Noni B, Rivers, Millers and City Chic) saw a 4% loss as it was hurt by the lockdowns last time when many shopping malls closed. Punters see that being repeated if the lockdowns persist.

Shares in Premier Investments rose 1.8% — it rode out the last lockdown with considerable taxpayer support but then saw sales explode (along with profits) in the rebound. Investors see it repeating that if the lockdowns continue.

Mall operators were sold off as well.

Securities in Scentre – the biggest shopping centre owner in the country – dropped 2.5% but those in rivals in the shape of Shopping Centres of Australia (down 0.3%), Mirvac (down 1%) did a bit better.

Stockland though saw its securities down 2.4% (it has retirement as well as new homes to go with its retailing investments).

CBD owners Dexus and GPT saw small falls of 1.6% and 0.9% respectively – investors think their growing logistics investments might be a cushion if the lockdowns deepen.

Consumer-facing shares were higher as panic buying drove Woolworths shares up 2.9%, Coles 0.6% higher, and Woolies’ new drinks offshoot Endeavour Group up 3.8%.

Investors reckon its Dan Murphy’s chain will do well if the lockdowns persist, but a big drag will be its hotels revenue and earnings from poker machines. They were crunched in 2020.

Retailer Metcash saw its shares up 3.6% thanks to the Covid lockdown surge and a record result, higher dividend and buyback (see separate story). But it couldn’t hang on to the gains and it closed up just 0.8%.

It has Mitre 10 hardware and Home Timber as major plays (and rivals to Bunnings) on the home renovation boom as well.

Many of the share price rises and falls were a bit of a kneejerk reaction as they are trying to anticipate benefits from a situation that remains fluid and volatile.

Investors in many retail and internet stocks have been down this route a couple of times in the past year and know that the gains can’t be, or won’t be sustained – the boom and bust in the Kogan share price explains that.

But that the stricken travel and tourism companies face months of continuing pain as the chances of a border re-opening moves deeper into calendar 2022.

Gains for the market’s biggest companies – BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue (1% or less) Commonwealth Bank, and CSL (up 1,1%) — helped even the ledger. But shares in Westpac, ANZ and NAB fell.

The CBA rose 0.6% on yet more silly speculation that it could do a share buyback when it will almost certainly pay a higher final dividend for the financial year ending tomorrow, June 30.

Afterpay shares fell more than 7% on concerns about growing competition – the company with its buy now pay later product was a star of the 2020 lockdowns and switch in retail spending patterns.

It is interesting it wasn’t on the big price rise list yesterday.

===================
from our own sharecafe!!


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nipper
post Posted: Jun 28 2021, 08:29 AM
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AX futures ... to open 5 points higher.
Market highlights:
  • AUD +0.1% to 75.90 US cents
  • On Wall St: Dow +0.7% (at 34,433) ; S&P 500 +0.3% (record high of 4280.7) ; Nasdaq -0.1%
  • In New York: BHP +0.6% ; Rio +0.2% ; Atlassian -0.9%
  • Stoxx 50 -0.04% FTSE +0.4% ; CAC -0.1% ; DAX +0.1%
  • Spot gold +0.4% to $US1781.44/oz in New York
  • Brent crude +0.8% to $US76.18 a barrel
  • US oil +1% to $US74.05 a barrel
  • Iron ore +1.4% to $US216.45 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.27% ; Australia 0.06%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.92% ; Australia 0.87%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.52% ; Australia 1.56% ; Germany -0.16%




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 23 2021, 08:47 AM
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Equities higher as the Fed push strong economy with transient inflation narrative
San Francisco’s Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told reports she was “bullish on the recovery”, “substantial” progress had been made towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target and full employment goals. But, perhaps more importantly, she thinks the Fed may be in a position to begin tapering this year. This last point alone was enough to topple equities when James Bullard effectively read from the same script on Friday, yet Jerome Powell soothed any negative response from markets with his persistent view that inflation will be transitory, when he testified to congress separately.

Bond yields were lower across the curve the US 10-year yield falling -2.2 bps below 1.5% and the 2-year was down -2.6 bps to a two-day low of 0.23%. On the economy, Powell said labour demand is very strong and expects strong job creation in autumn. Lorretta Mester is also in the ‘transient’ camp and expects inflation to rise to around 3% to 3.5% this year before falling back to % in 2022, adding she expects employment to fall below 4% by next year.

The message of a ‘strong, but not too strong’ recovery was music to Wall Street’s ears, technology stocks took the lead with the Nasdaq 100 closing to a record high and the Nasdaq’s biotech index now up 5.6% month-to-date. The S&P 500 stopping just short of its own record high with eleven S&P 500 sectors closed in the green.

The ASX200 recouped most of Monday’s losses during its best session in three-months yesterday, to close with a large bullish inside day. Information technology sector is the best performer month-to-date, although with an RSI (2) reading of 99.52 it is at high risk of over-extension over the near-term. At the other end of the scale, the ASX Allords gold miners index is currently down -10.7% over the same period as they tracked gold prices lower.

=========================

buy the dips --------------until it not working!! tongue.gif

 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 15 2021, 09:08 AM
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Wall Street rises; iron ore firms

Here are the overnight market highlights:
  • AUD flat to 77.07 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net $US40,066.35
  • On Wall St: Dow -0.3% S&P 500 +0.2% Nasdaq +0.7%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.1% ; FTSE +0.2% ; DAX -0.1% ; CAC +0.2%
  • In New York: BHP -0.5% ; Rio -0.6% ; Atlassian +2.8%
  • Spot gold -0.74 per cent to $US1,863.60 an ounce
  • Brent crude +0.25 per cent to $US72.87 a barrel
  • US oil flat to $US70.90 a barrel
  • Iron ore +0.68 per cent to $US220.77 a tonne
  • 2-year yield: US 0.16 per cent ; Australia -0.01 per cent
  • 5-year yield: US 0.79 per cent ; Australia 0.69 per cent
  • 10-year yield: US 1.50 per cent ; Australia 1.48 per cent ; Germany -0.25 per cent

ASX to open higher. Check out the (negative) 2 yr AU bond yield



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 10 2021, 08:55 AM
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What is a triple witching?
Triple witching is when the expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all fall on the same day. It only happens four times a year – on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December – which can create a spike in trading volume and volatility.

Sometimes triple witching is called quadruple witching, as single stock options were added in 2002 and also expire on the same quarterly dates.

Unlike investing, using derivatives like futures and options carry an expiry date. This has the benefit of enabling traders to speculate on what the price of the underlying market will be over a specific period. Once the expiry date arrives, any contract holders will need to buy or sell the underlying asset in question.

On a triple witching day, nearly double the number of contracts expire than in any other week, which is what creates the market movements that triple witching day is known for.

The underlying markets will see volatility in the week leading up to triple witching, but the most active period is the final hour before the market closes on the day, known as the witching hour. This is when parties rush to close their positions, offset them or roll them over. Even those who have only opened speculative positions on the futures or options contracts will need to decide whether to close, offset, or roll over their trade at expiry.

Sometimes, triple witching events can come and go with little volatility. This is especially true after weekly and daily expirations became available, as activity became more spread out. However, it will all depend on the context in which the event happens, so it’s important to look at news and analysis in the run-up to the witching day.

Check out our latest news.

Triple witching calendar 2021-2022
June 18, 2021
September 17, 2021
December 17, 2021
March 18, 2022
June 17, 2022
September 16, 2022
December 16, 2022

========================
just in case someone not aware these market events [ it might make market jumping up and down]

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 9 2021, 12:23 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Jun 9 2021, 11:59 AM

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif



 


early birds
post Posted: Jun 9 2021, 12:13 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Jun 9 2021, 11:59 AM

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif



 
plastic
post Posted: Jun 9 2021, 11:59 AM
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Watch out below!



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 9 2021, 10:34 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 9 2021, 08:25 AM

bought few POS ----for the small nickel play
not sure is goon move or not?? unsure.gif saw it had "nice ann" and price dropped, typical "sell on news" stuff. market never changes!! lmaosmiley.gif

on the global market , think EU is better and safe bet. imho!!



 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 9 2021, 08:25 AM
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Australian shares are set to open higher, perhaps resetting its record high, as shares on Wall Street hovered near record highs ahead of the US May CPI report on Friday AEST.

ASX futures were up 10 points or 0.1 per cent to 7314 near 7am AEST. The currency slipped.



AUD .... -0.2% to 77.37 US cents
Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -1.5% to $US33,553
On Wall St: Dow -0.1% ; S&P 500 flat ; Nasdaq +0.3%
In New York: BHP +1.6% ; Rio +0.6% ; Atlassian +0.4%
Tesla -0.3% ; Amazon +2.1% ; Apple +0.7%
In Europe: Stoxx 50 flat ; FTSE +0.3% ; CAC +0.1% ; DAX -0.2%
Spot gold ... -0.3% to $US1893.15/oz at 2.39pm New York time
Brent crude ... +1.1% to $US72.28 a barrel
US oil ... +1.2% to $US70.07 a barrel
Iron ore ... +3.5% to $US209.50 a tonne
2-year yield: US 0.15% Australia 0.04%
5-year yield: US 0.77% ; Australia 0.78%
10-year yield: US 1.53% ; Australia 1.60% ; Germany -0.23%



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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