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Gold, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Jul 20 2019, 11:34 AM
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This guy is a real gold bug. Maybe even right (so far)

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/07/19/gol...recasts-raised/
QUOTE
I know this is the fifth time I am writing about gold but with the precious metal surging to fresh new multi-year highs I need to stress to readers the enormous opportunity that is being presented to investors....




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 10:57 AM
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In Reply To: zac's post @ Jul 18 2019, 10:50 AM

Gold back on the upward march.
The paper derivative players have been beaten in this round.
Mick



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zac
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 10:50 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 18 2019, 07:13 AM

Thanks nipper.

I think in the near future gold juniors will have more than their day in the sun.

Producers are a given. But juniors will provide greater leverage for massive gains (as long as they have potential near term mining resources).

Cheers


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nipper
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 07:13 AM
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QUOTE
Hedge fund kingpin Ray Dalio is seeing a case for gold as central banks get more aggressive with policies that devalue currencies and are about to cause a "paradigm shift" in investing.

Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, wrote in a LinkedIn post that investors have been pushed into stocks and other assets that have equity-like returns. As a result, too many people are holding these types of securities and likely to face diminishing returns.

"I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold," the Bridgewater Associates leader said....
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s...al-markets.html



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
zac
post Posted: Jul 11 2019, 04:03 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 29 2019, 08:22 AM

I am hearing very good things about CLZ. Keep and eye on this one for excellent drilling results at Kat Gap soon.


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nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 08:22 AM
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Gold — that most defensive of all assets — is suddenly stirring. And this time around anyone can get a piece of the action thanks to the boom in exchange-traded funds.

After doing very little for almost five years, suddenly the combination of ever-lower cash deposit rates and ever-increasing fears for global markets have awakened gold investors as the price tops $US1400 an ounce.

Keep in mind that for six years between June 2013 and May this year gold traded in a tight range from $US1100 to $US1350. In Australian dollars the story is even better, with the yellow metal crossing an all-time high of $2000 a week ago.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/w...391ce99421df8c6



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jun 24 2019, 12:14 PM
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I've been looking at how I can successfully get gold exposure.
The obvious path ....seeing ways are to either 1) find a company, or 2) buy an ETF. I tend to think #1 has its pitfalls (both figuratively and literally) and #2 includes dross.

With the ETF, the lazy way, it can either be relating to the Gold price - the usual route via GOLD or similar - or into a company based fund. Seeing active management doesn't seem to add too much, and there is the additional currency challenge, I've drilled down to an ASX listed US$ denominated global ETF, the Vaneck Gold Miners CDI 1:1 ASX:GDX
QUOTE
The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.

The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Gold Miners Index. The Gold Miners Index is a modified market-capitalization weighted index primarily comprised of publicly traded companies involved in the mining for gold and silver. The fund is non-diversified.

As at Dec 2018, GDX is 91% in gold, 9% in Silver by way of its company exposures.

.... and country exposure based on the Stock Exchange domicile is as follows:
50% Canada*
17% Australia
14% USA
6% South Africa
3% Peru
... and the rest spread London, HK and a few randoms
* while Canada is the exchange home, a large number of the listings appear to be US operations. Not sure why.

Even paid a US$0.105 dividend in December last year
Disappointingly, (for listing longevity) the market cap appears to be only around $100mill, but that is the AU part of what I think is a much larger play



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 20 2019, 04:20 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 18 2019, 03:36 PM

QUOTE
This year gold has past thru 1800 mark which we had only seen twice before in 2011 and 2016.
Gold sitting on 1950, and smoothly approaching the 2000 mark.

Well, it broke into that 2k territory today. 2004 as I type.
The AUD has increased against the greenback, tempering some of the gains. But gold is rising regardless of the currency it is measured in.
Always a nice place to be.

But it won't last long according to the experts.
FROM ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Renewed hope for another Australian gold rush might be good for those who happen to strike it rich — but investors say it is also a sign of global uncertainty.

Key points:
Australia exported the most gold in its history last year
Demand is believed to be driven by global uncertainty
Central banks bought more gold last year than they have since the 1970s
The latest ABS data shows mining companies are spending more than ever looking for the rare commodity across Australia, with almost half a billion dollars spent between October and March.

Last year, Australia also exported the most gold in its history at 317 tonnes, maintaining its status as the second biggest producer of the element.

Western Australia's goldfields are leading the charge, however there has also been increased prospecting in the Northern Territory, where $14m was spent on gold exploration last quarter.

Warren Pearce, the chief executive of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, says exploration in both WA and the NT has "led to the recovery of the industry" back to 2012 levels.

"We have a lot of confidence that the future of the gold industry is very bright," he said.

What's behind this renewed confidence?
Mr Pearce said there is a simple reason — Australian gold prices have been steadily rising.

Today, they reached an all-time high of $2,000 an ounce.

But what is driving that might not be all rosy.

"It's perhaps an unfortunate positive that gold prices tend to rise when things aren't going well in the rest of the economy," Mr Pearce said.

That is because gold is typically seen as a safer option.

Truck emerges from underground gold mine.
PHOTO: Gold exploration is at a high in Western Australia. (ABC Goldfields-Esperance: Jarrod Lucas)
Unlike bonds or stocks, it is seen as a tangible commodity that will not lose its inherent value if markets crash.

Mr Pearce speculated that US-China tensions and even Brexit could be some sources of global uncertainty driving investors towards gold at the moment.

David Baker from Australian firm Baker Steele Capital — which runs a global gold fund — agrees there could be many sources of instability driving a push back to gold.

"I think there's a feeling that there's more risks in the world," Mr Baker says.

"There's more challenges. We're seeing trade wars and currency wars."

Central banks buying up gold
Last year, the world's central banks bought up 650 tonnes of gold, their highest amount since the 1970s.

"Central banks see gold as a hedge against uncertainty in the world," Mr Baker said.

Central Banks buying up in high numbers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey, India and Poland.

"These countries are very dependent on the US dollar for trade and settling accounts," Mr Baker says.

"What they're seeing is the US is quick to put sanctions on countries, so the feeling is you have a bit more gold in the bank, so you're more independent from the US."

Yet, like many historical moves back towards gold, Mr Baker said it was not easy to pinpoint the exact logic driving investors.

He warned the industry not to get too excited by the renewed optimism of Australian gold hunters.

"Gold is a very rare commodity and it takes a lot of time and expertise to find it," he said.

"That's why it's a precious metal.

"Australians are doing all they can and being reasonably successful but it's not an easy game."

Industry analyst firm IBISWorld echoed these sentiments, and said a lack of new gold deposit discoveries in the past decade and several mines forecast to close by 2025 presented a challenge for the sector.

The firm forecasts Australia's production of gold will fall to 255 tonnes by 2023, pushing it down to be the world's fourth largest producer.

The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies' Mr Pearce said he expected new gold deposits to be discovered in the next 18 months as exploration progresses.


One assumes that if a number of gold mines do close, then the price goes up as supply decreases.


Obviously, if the price of gold goes up, three things may happen:

1.Gold deposits that were once considered uneconomic can become attractive.
2. Exploration for gold becomes more attractive.
3. Reprocessing leach heaps and old tailings becomes economical.

Mick





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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 20 2019, 02:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 19 2019, 08:04 AM

It can be dissapointing (to put it mildly).
But not today.
EVN up 6%.
Sbm up 8%
RMS up 12%
SLR up 5%.
Even the silver dog SVL up 10%.
PRX only one not performing, only up 1%.
Good day for me.
Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Jun 19 2019, 08:04 AM
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How Great Does Gold Look

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/14/how...does-gold-look/ ..... some interesting charts, and the usual story

- but how disappointing it can be, & difficult it is to find a successful miner



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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