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early birds
Posted on: Today, 08:46 AM


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Posts: 12,491

sound like board infighting ----bad sign for the Co.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 11:38 PM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/stock-marke...all-street.html

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, according to figures released by the Labor Department. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 187,000.

Treasury yields climbed to their session highs after the data was released. The benchmark 10-year yield traded at 1.86% while the 2-year rate was at 1.63%

==================

market popped up om this news. looks x-mas comes earlier cool.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

asx200 at 6703 as i type. done my job.
only left tiny stake ----to see how high it can run tomorrow!!

tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

am still hold few longs atm

already got my money back from last night's loss. currently sit on some profit as well .
try to target 6700ish before this weekend with stops at 6645. will move it higher once it go over 6675 again!!
sounds good idea??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 08:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

as i guessed ---other major market all rebound strongly from the last two days sell offs.

asx200 looked for up day??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

stopped out ---------------------freaking just. ma ma meia!!!!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

took your words

shorted asx200 at 6654 with stops at 6668. see how it goes . EU market jumped highb as i type...

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 03:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

xjo closed below your level.... short into the pop for asx200 ??? thought it might bounce strongly with other major markets tonight. unsure.gif

i will take a shorts with little tighter stops see how it goes !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

set stops and trade it-----long or short. the swing will be big today's session.

one win one loss so far---------------work hard for nothing. angry.gif

any level in mind----long or short???



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

expecting a rebound at current level today for asx200, really strong support at 6625---6675 zone.
my target is 6715ish iwithin two session. imho

not for fainted heart though. and remember set stops if one wants to trade this rebound!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

The fact that we have a higher delinquency rate now than during the GFC is scary. And its only going to get worse.
=============================================

i like to add another bad fact, that is most of central banks nearly run out of ammo if the shits hits the fan this time.
my one bob-------------------the system needs clean up!! too many dead wood, branch eg.. it will be a short term pain, but a clearer , healthy long term system that we know and worked till now!
but the ones that in the helmet seems focus on their jobs than anything............. sadsmiley02.gif



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Nov 28 2019, 09:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

so buy WBC for a short term trading!! tongue.gif

i bought few for longer term, seems have to get rid of them soon.

really thought this bad publicity bring WBC down to long term value zone . seems i'm wrong!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 27 2019, 08:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Some people bring happiness where ever they go, others whenever they go. The latter may apply to the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price after this mornings announcement that the bank has booted its embattled CEO Brian Hartzer.

The chairman Lindsay Maxsted will also bring forward his retirement to early 2020 and fellow director and head of the risk committee, Ewen Crouch, will leave the bank at next week’s AGM.

Shareholders, the government and other stakeholders were pressuring the bank to make big changes to its leadership team following damning allegations that Westpac facilitated child sex exploitation as it turned a blind eye to money laundering.

Westpac share price outperforms
The Westpac share price jumped 1.2% to $24.73 in early trade when the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index gained half of that.

In contrast, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price and National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) share price increase around 0.5% and the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) share price slipped 0.1% at the time of writing.

Westpac became un-investable without a big shake-up in the leadership team, in my view. From that perspective, I think Westpac is starting to look interesting again after it lost nearly 16% of its value over the past month. You don’t need to ask me if I welcomed the news!

Share price catalyst
It’s worth noting that stocks often outperform after ousting unpopular leaders. National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) is the most recent relevant example. The departure of its former chairman Ken Henry and CEO Andrew Thorburn in February this year lit a fire under the stock.

Both men also came under intense pressure to quit following their appearance at the Banking Royal Commission.

From February till mid-November, the NAB share price surged 21% to become the best performing big bank stock in 2019. I think its reluctance to announce a capital raising to shore up its balance sheet contributed to the recent bout of weakness, but that’s for another story.

Lingering risks
This isn’t to say Westpac is out of the woods though. There is still a very real and probable prospect of Westpac being hit with the biggest fine in Australian corporate history. That could burn a $1 trillion dollar hole in its balance sheet.

This leaves Westpac exposed to doing another cap raise. The current SPP that closes on 2 December isn’t going so well, particularly given that the stock is trading under the offer price.

Then there is the risk that institutional shareholders who tipped $2 billion into the bank’s placement will sue. The upcoming court case brought by AUSTRAC may expose when the board became aware of the money laundering issue, and if they lived up to their continuous disclosure obligations.

Who ever said investing in Australian big banks was boring!

The post Is the Westpac share price suddenly back in the “buy” zone? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.
===============================================

back in buy zoon ??? i guess it said about longer term!!
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

if it's super investment, then it is long term......3--5 years, or even a lot longer,
then you will be fine with good divy every year not much to worry about at their current price. imho though!! tongue.gif

ask more info to others as well. hope we can get more peoples to comeout with their thoughts about this thing here as well!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

yeah, nipper, had a lot cash in hand
try to make about 10% or little over return safely. not sure is it good time to buy this dog that in really bad market sentiment??

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 09:26 AM


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Posts: 12,491

little bounce up atm.

time to going in or wait for it???

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 10:00 AM


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Posts: 12,491

i should say few many months not years. because it went as low as 23 something last year-----even it jumped back up very next day.
bought little stake yesterday. not sure how low it can go with this really bad news that panic a lot of investors.............

================================
Westpac shares touched 10-month lows yesterday in the wake of legal action launched against it from AUSTRAC, the financial intelligence agency as the role of CEO, Brian Hartzer moved further into the frame.

And analysts said that if the role of Mr. Hartzer and his future in the position comes under pressure, so to should the future of long-time board member and chair, Lindsay Maxstead.

Westpac shares fell another 1.9% yesterday to close at $25.16 taking the losses for the past two days to more than 5% and over 12% in the past month.

The shares touched a 10 month low of $24.80 during trading. That meant the shares fell under the $25.32 issue price in the recent $2 billion capital raising.

Westpac’s $500 million retail funding raising is now underway and closes on December 1. A price-earnings ratio of more than 7% (at the issue price of $25.32) will prove to be very attractive to retail investors.

It will prove to be a litmus test to see if small investors want to punish Westpac in any way.

Prime Minister Morrison bought into the story, saying that the Westpac board should reflect “very deeply” on the future of CEO Brian Hartzer.

“These are things that the board and the management need to determine themselves,” Mr. Morrison told the ABC’s AM program.

Fairfax Media papers reported funds managers were supporting Hartzer.

Senior analyst at Clime Asset Management, David Walker, told Fairfax he thought it was unlikely the CEO would go over this scandal.

“I don’t think this scandal will result in the CEO leaving,” he said.

And Atlas Funds Management chief investment officer Hugh Dive said Mr. Hartzer had done well leading the bank overall.

“It’s taken $6 billion off the market capitalisation in two days, so it’s pretty significant. I would like to say he keeps his job because I think he has done it quite well,” Mr. Dive told Fairfax.

And according to analysts at Bell Potter Westpac remains a ‘hold’.

“WBC is currently reviewing AUSTRAC’s statement of claim and will respond in due course. Pending this response, our cash earnings estimates are unchanged,” Bell Potter analyst TS Lim told clients.

But he cut his forecast for Westpac’s full-year dividend to 150 cents per share, leading him to downgrade his 12-month price target for the stock from $29.50 to $27.00.

“These are serious allegations that would likely dog the bank’s brand value for some time to come,” he said. “At this point, we conservatively estimate WBC’s potential liability at up to $3.7 billion.”

Mr. Lim said this implies the need for further capital raising “whichever way you look at it”.
====================

imho yield and price gain towards 27.00{ 26.30 ish] within a year isn't a bad return for current market situation-------------just my thoughts!!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 12:02 PM


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Posts: 12,491

havn't seen WBC this low for many years ohmy.gif

really attempt at 25.00. might put small size in and keep eye on it??

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:23 AM


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Posts: 12,491

thanks mate, seems not a good day to buy anything.
do you have any idea of shorts on something??

Dax looks a short for me target down to 12925ish before weekend??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:09 AM


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Posts: 12,491

you mean worth a buy at current level for asx200?? 6658 as i type.

missed out on Dax shorts last night as it's cash closed way over 3135ish. looked bullish at time . but now it is at 13064, looks bids all pull away.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 11:52 PM


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Posts: 12,491

in $dax (cash) , we may see an outside-down weekly bar if we stay below 13135's thursday/friday

==============
that is plan trading level i can understand it fully. some other stuff you wrote that i just pretend understood them, but to be honest kinda scratch my head. forgive me {i'm an old bugg} not as techy as you do..

if you can give us "kiss" way { keep it simple stupid} a lot of us here will appreciate you ! of course at your will! : tongue.gif

now , since i made few bucks tonight { short scalping 15---20 points each trade]. i will keep eye on how Dax gonna close at {cash market]
thanks mate for the advise!!

we are here to help each other.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 08:26 PM


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Posts: 12,491

sentiment really bearish tonight.

short everything that moves for a DT tonight. looks shorts scalp everywhere. lmaosmiley.gif
i know, i/m hopeless some times.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 06:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

$xjo the constant recent (few weeks in the tri shape) distribution suggests the breadth has been weak relative to recent incline making the local indexes prone to sells with o'seas indexes

================================================

wish you would tell us when xjo at 6790ish. but anyway, can we take a shorts at current level given that our market is really weak as you pointed out???? unsure.gif

i've got other email says SPX gonna hit 3080ish within two session [ may be just tonight's session].
a lot cry out for a good size retrace........................ cool.gif ..not sure if they can get or not.




  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 10:11 AM


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Posts: 12,491

more than 2 years ago...i thought Oyu Tolgoi copper mine will be huge plus for RIO

seems the geo political issues got that mine with opposite effect. not what i expected.. ohmy.gif

no holding atm. just keep eye on it.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 04:01 PM


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Posts: 12,491

ok!!!! finally i dig it out.................

阿里巴巴为MSCI新兴市场指数的第一重仓股,在指数中所占权重为4.5%。到11月26日,MSCI纳入A股第一阶段完成之后,A股整体在MSCI中
所占权重仅为3.3%,目前阿里巴巴在MSCI新兴市场指数中所占权重比全部A股加起来还要高。作为MSCI新兴市场指数的第一大重仓股,阿里巴
是很多跟踪此指数或相关衍生指数机构的重仓股。

==========================================
alibaba will be No1 heavy weighing stock for HSI index. the single stock's weighing{4.5%} is more than whole A share together{3.3%}. it will be counted at 26th of NOV. the price of alibaba might mimic it's USA listing price.



ps... i'm not a good translator. get someone to give you guys a prop one,, tongue.gif


HSI seems getting up again atm.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 11:23 AM


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Posts: 12,491

my shorts been stopped out. really thought FIRB will reject this takeover given that sentiment against Chinese so strong atm.

got it wrong!! and paid for it.. weirdsmiley.gif

oh well!! can't win all the time!! otherwise i'd be stock god. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 03:18 PM


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Posts: 12,491

thanks joules
but still not find the the time when will alibaba be counted for HSI's weighing??? anyway, if you can dig it out then let us know please!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

it is the alibaba IPO that sucked up a lot of $$$$ as no insto gonna injecting more cash into troubled HK market as social unrest keeps on and on

one thing you might help us--------tell us when ALIBABA will counted in HSI index weighing???????
i'm sure we cream out few points for the event...... the question is the timing?? if you know it ---please share it here. will be appreciated !! tongue.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

if it can not hold it's current level at cash market close, then it might head to where you are pointed .

two day ----down 1500 from the peak, now ,that can make you heart beat faster,,,,,,,,,,, weirdsmiley.gif
went in and stopped out within hour..........pooooo.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 05:30 PM


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Posts: 12,491

so you reckon we should have another go at it------for longs??

it's bullish everywhere for the most of market atm.

tell us what you think. tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

ha all long position with HSI been stoped out. ,not too bad for two weeks gain.

take a breath. try to to find some good trades.


market still bullish at current stage

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 04:25 PM


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Posts: 12,491

the chart looks ---"breakout" on TA term, but seems sellers have a up hand atm.
it's kinda all index have a "weekend syndromes" !! frustrated!! mad.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

only one day-----all the jumped yesterday wiped out!!
what's going on??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

HSI 27725... my medium target been way over hit by now , trailed stops to 27300. free run from here on. tongue.gif nice pay off for this year's trading only if i bet a lot light .
try to help myself. weirdsmiley.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

thanks but no thanks from me a poor sole. sadsmiley02.gif

guys !! there isn't a help F£$%^ ing all. thought at least i can get hint from you guys!! lmaosmiley.gif only joke
i know how hard to bet on a winner at cup.. only once a year for me. $1000 a max. fun day!!

good luck to anyone whom punted it as well.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 04:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

hi guys
any tips for tomorrow's cup??? once a year betting tongue.gif


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

doe to banks weakness ASX200 been weak compare to other index. seems more of sell on banks next few days.
but other stocks had good session so far.

HSI closed the half session at 27500ish looks more of up side to come as it has been heavyly shorted last months or so.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

yeah nipper. as NAB went down nearly 3% as i type looks it gonna follow WBC.

comes to more info of WBC's this fund raising.......
The fully underwritten Placement of new fully paid ordinary shares (“New Shares”) to sophisticated
and institutional investors in Australia and in certain overseas jurisdictions will raise $2 billion.
The Placement will be undertaken at a fixed price of $25.32 per New Share (“Placement Price”),
representing a:
• 6.5% discount to the adjusted4 last close price on ASX of $27.08 on 1 November 2019;
and
• 8.1% discount to the adjusted4 five day VWAP5 on ASX of $27.56 to the close of trade on
1 November 2019.
The Placement will result in approximately 79 million New Shares being issued, representing
approximately 2.3% of Westpac’s existing issued capital6
.-------------------------

how many this discounted shares retail investors can get??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 07:55 AM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/11/04/wes...-2-5bn-raising/

Westpac shares went into a two-day trading halt before the ASX opened on Monday morning to allow it to make a surprise capital raising of around $2.5 billion to big shareholders.

The news came as the bank, the country’s second-largest, slashed final dividend by 15% after reporting a sharp fall in second half and full-year earnings.#


The final dividend of 80 cents a share was down 15% from the 94 cents paid a year ago. An interim for 2018-19 of 94 million was paid earlier this year. Unlike the ANZ which chopped its franking to 70% Westpac is maintaining a 100% fully franked payout.

======================
seems big four have been bitten really heard by RC.................... cool.gif
low rate dose not help..............
rock and heard place for them atm

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 11:14 PM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/dow-futures...m-payrolls.html

At around 8:30 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 110 points, indicating a gain of about 105 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also indicated solid.

The U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 75,000 jobs for the previous month. October jobs growth easily beat estimates despite a decline of 42,000 jobs in the autos sector due to a General Motors strike that has now been settled.

Jobs growth data for September and August was also revised substantially higher. September’s number was revised up to 180,000 from 136,000. August jobs growth was revised to 219,000 from 168,000.

===========================

market set to rally.........
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

yeah joules
seems squeeze is the game in town as SPX closed above 3025 ---key short term support level.

HSI is in the cusp of break out to the upside as it reached 27000 level for the third time in mater of two weeks. if it dose then a larger up side within two months is on the card. imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 12:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

if spx dosen't hold 3025, then look down to 3000 this session. looks selling is gathering force as i type........
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

LEI /CIMIC?? unsure.gif


why i had {john holland ] is the former LEI[ it is a parent Co.] in my mind??


  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 08:15 PM


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Posts: 12,491

last day for the month and SPX future down over 10points from the it's high during the day.
looks a lot of shorts has been rolled over............i'm only guess. ohmy.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

a lot of stops for the long xjo has been triggered , as AUD rally up.

it will be SPX turn the night session i guess.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

a lot lower than it's close last session .

i guess there will be selling as AUD rallied. on TA term keep eye on 6675 for asx200. if it can hold there. then more of "grind high ] to come. imho



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

future of ASX200 looked weak at start after Fed cut rate again -----sell on news??? unsure.gif

SPX closed at record high , but seems other market not follow it atm.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/fed-decisio...-rates-cut.html

Fed cut rate again!! weirdsmiley.gif
and SPX had turn around after market people get they wanted ......record high ...for SPX

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

blow off top or keeps make new highs for SPX?? unsure.gif

seems everyone is waiting for Fed meeting, don't know what they try to get from it though!!!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 01:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

seems they did "sell on news" thingy.. dirty game!

hasn't trig my stops yet, but close to it {my trailed stops}

noticed SPX future had out size retreat as well. not sure what hell is going on. we might some thing from "tweets" soon???? weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491


“Australia hasn’t really seen a true wealth industry,” he said. “Everyone has just been focused on selling products.”

===================

you hit the nail nipper!!!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 09:46 AM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/20/brexit-vote...happen-now.html

Capital Economics called Saturday’s vote “a decent result for the economy and the pound as it makes a no deal Brexit on 31st October even less likely.” But it added that “it does extend the uncertainty that has been hampering growth for a least a bit longer.”

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said “the outlook for a Brexit resolution remains constructive,” explaining that the makeup of the voting on Saturday actually meant that Johnson could receive enough backing for his deal at a later date.

The bank also said it would “retain our constructive outlook on the U.K., and long sterling and short U.K. real yield recommendations.”

If Brexit already seems complicated, it might be about to get a whole lot more so
=======================

start to getting frustrated for everyone and all the party whom involved ....
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

joules
debt market has been distorted by all major central banks as they all doing the " race to the bottom" thingy, either they've been forced or not. so we can see the bound market and equity market have this disconnect funny move..........................
it's the challenge to us all. weirdsmiley.gif

as for asx200,
i don't see any big swing for the index today, volume is getting thinner ..people all getting tied and sea sick by those "tweets, and other stuff"

but all market seems ready for another upside move from TA point of view....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 04:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

only little over 300 points. before and after the data. enough for a DT though. we are talk about HK market. blush.gif

anyway still hold my HSI longs and SPX shorts.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/18/china-q3-gd...ar-with-us.html

china released third-quarter GDP figures on Friday showing the economy grew 6.0% from a year ago.

analysts polled by reuters had expected China’s third-quarter GDP to grow 6.1% from a year ago..
===============

market didn't swinging as big as most of trader expected .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...uts-are-working


Interest rate cuts are supporting Australia’s economy and housing market, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said.

“The economy has been through a very soft patch over the past year but it is actually gradually improving, the lower interest rates are working,” Lowe said during a panel event at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Washington.

================
he is right for the current housing rebound. it is the facts but...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/10/18/rba...ousing-rebound/


Deputy Governor Guy Debelle told a finance conference in Sydney that the slide in investment in the housing construction sector will weigh on the economy through next year but the recent rise in house prices won’t have the impact many people claim

He said while the bank was forecasting a further 7% drop in housing investment over the next year there was “some risk” the impact could be larger and wider than the bank forecasts.

“We are forecasting a further 7 percent decline in dwelling investment over the next year, and there is some risk the decline could be even larger. This will directly subtract around 1 percentage point from GDP growth from peak to trough, given that dwelling investment accounts for around 6 percent of GDP,” Dr. Debelle told the Sydney audience.

--------------------------------------

he is right as well..................

=============================

i guess we have to re adjust our P/O...................... unsure.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/europe-mark...-eu-summit.html

The European blue-chip index had initially jumped 0.7% after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted that a “great new deal” had been reached before European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker confirmed the agreement

===========================================

i saw market jumped up on this news . and when i got up this morning story changed .............................. weirdsmiley.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/central-ban...or-economy.html

Zero or negative interest rates will do “tremendous damage” to the economy in the long run, analysts warn, adding that the addiction to cheap money has become a problem as central banks around the world go on a path of increasingly lower rates

==================

the shit part of this saga is that all the central bankers knew that well, but for their own personal interests they don't care what happens for the future .................

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 11:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-re...6?mod=home-page

6. Your son just got his driver’s license.

=============================

i reckon it should be the No1 on the list. sadsmiley02.gif


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 12:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/optimism-is...at-we-know.html

The trade talks, which President Donald Trump said were “going really well,” extended into the second day on Friday. A slew of media reports overnight suggest that the world’s two largest economies could agree to a partial agreement on issues such as currency and agriculture buying, and it could also include a delay in the tariff hike scheduled for next week.

Trump again gave an optimistic read on the talks on Friday, saying in a tweet “Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past.”

====================

i guess those hedge fund whom associate with trumpie made plenty since "big mouth" get into white house. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

did add more and trailed stops at 26190. my target for the trade would be 27300ish in few weeks.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

time to add more ???
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...sm-markets-wrap


The S&P 500 Index futures fell 1% as of 7:29 a.m. in Tokyo.


=================================

you just don't know what's around the political corner ................................ weirdsmiley.gif

got to say thanks joules i did as you suggested -----cut down the size of my HSI long stake. but will be hurt still. lucky i still had some SPX shorts left in hand,

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 12:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

loules
at least we get HSI long right on the money. i had bid stake on it. try to make kill for this year for myself . thanks for the feed mate.
you did good job to help us !! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

thanks joules. for the TA feeds

i still had little longs for DAX [left over from last two session of trading] shorts on SPX. and big long position with HSI.

wish you can feeds us more of your TA stuff. it is helpful.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://au.yahoo.com/news/police-officer-un...-050043940.html

Disturbing footage has emerged from South Australia of an off-duty police officer stoning a wombat to the brink of death while he is egged on by a friend.
==============

WTF. why these cowards target little thing like that?????????????????????????????????? mad.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

support for today's ASX200--- at 6470ish.
keep eye on it at end of day closing.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/wh...20191002-p52x0f

As interest rates head lower around the world, more investors are turning to the credit asset class in search of additional yield.



Whether the growth of private debt is good or bad for the system is uncertain.

For investors, much will depend on the skill of the managers they hire to select and manage their capital.

For the rest of the market, the growth of private lending may mean that when the next credit crisis emerges, it might take even longer before we take notice.

====================

this is suggesting -----------be defensive !! am i right?? cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 07:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

next support for SPX at 2890ish as it's future at 2918 as i type. that is rough TA studies.

what do you think joules???

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 05:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/frydenbe...y_Sent=02102019


All the banks have now passed on rates. NAB said it would cut rates for owner-occupiers and investors paying principal and interest by 15 basis points, while the CBA said it would cut as little as 13 basis points. ANZ said it could cut by 14 basis points while Westpac will pass on 15 basis points.

============================

all passed on partially !!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

When we reach negative rates will the banks pay the mortgagor for the pleasure of owning a home?

======================================

i guess everyone knows that most of central banks lost their effectiveness to the real capital market as they all slash the rate to extremely low level .

so all the commercial banks will will put the big spreads on mortgages -------------so keep cut rate won't help much of mortgage borrower anymore. imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/n...y_Sent=30092019


The Nufarm share price jumped more than 30 per cent in early trading to $5.80 on the back of the planned sale.

===============

missed it again!!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cba-bank-of...y_Sent=30092019

It is understood ICG’s bid was backed by about a $200 million debt package, including a $160 million-odd term loan and separate working capital and capital expenditure facilities. CBA and Bank of China were the two biggest lenders in the syndicate. ICG was advised by Lazard.

-----------------------------------------

infrastructure is the next aussie economy focus going forward.......
my ramping----i bought some bank of china from hong kong market with my CFDs account, as the stock is more than 30 % below it's mainland price and yield around 5---6%/. it's really under valued...thanks to current HK political unrest that got people sell things undiscriminately .

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 29 2019, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

A U.S. Treasury official said there are no current plans to stop Chinese companies from listing on U.S. exchanges, a day after a report that the Trump administration is discussing ways to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio flows into China.

“The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time,” Treasury spokeswoman Monica Crowley said in an emailed statement on Saturday.

===================================

will market bounce back on this news on Monday?????????
most of marketers will be confused and angry with this saga i guess. thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

as sujusted...... bought in hsi index at 25888. think you might be right on the level.

hope you keep tracking hsi index and feed us here. tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

sorry guys to interrupt the discussing. this news really got me................. weirdsmiley.gif

======================

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/australias-...-marijuana.html

However, the bill conflicts with Commonwealth law — Australian federal law — under which the drug is still illegal. Lawmakers pointed out that because of this, prosecution for cannabis use or possession may still be possible.

==============================

all i can say is WTF!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Sep 24 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/european-ma...velopments.html

The manufacturing element was particularly troubling, coming in 41.4. That’s the lowest gauge of German factory sentiment for more than a decade. Any number below 50 indicates contraction.

==============================

even economic is in bad shape , but market still near all time high.

asx200 for short term--------------------------------keep eye on 6775. get through that level, we might see a size pop up. IMHO

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 22 2019, 06:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/09/16/dis...bile-operators/

This, in turn, would put pressure on the company’s margins and add downside risk to dividends. If, however, the court opposes the merger then this would entrench Telstra’s leadership in mobile, the broker asserts, and increase the potential for upside to ARPU in the medium term.

Furthermore, if the court decision is appealed, and court action continues, this could be construed as positive for Telstra’s near-term earnings, providing more time to build a leadership position in 5G. On a 50% chance of the merger ultimately proceeding Morgan Stanley retains a target of $3.20 for Telstra.

There are two Buy ratings, three Hold and one Sell (Morgan Stanley) for Telstra on FNArena’s database. The consensus target is $3.90, signalling 9.6% upside to the last share price. The dividend yield on FY20 and FY21 forecasts is 4.5% and 4.4% respectively.

TPG Telecom has one Buy (Ord Minnett), three Hold and one Sell (Credit Suisse). The consensus target is $6.42, suggesting -6.9% downside to the last share price.
======================================================

at cross road for TLS as well???
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Sep 21 2019, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/09/20/is-...-wade-into-amp/

One of the worst things an investor can do is try to pick a low. Firstly, the exact low is never picked which means that at some point you are incurring a loss. Secondly, when you are incurring a loss the psychology suddenly becomes that with every new low the share price drops too, represent an even “cheaper” price and “better value”. I think we have all said at one point following this strategy, “that’s got to be the low”.
================
lmaosmiley.gif till these day, i still falling to this trap some times. even it's a lot fewer than before. good remind to us all.

but , i start to think of AMP, NOT JUMP IN JUST YET. but do keep eye on it. at it's current level it's worth it ---even for few months trade. IMHO

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/a...y_Sent=18092019

She said Chinese regulators had taken a "logical and sensible" approach to managing the country's infant formula market. lmaosmiley.gif

========================
Mick, do you believe what she said???????? i for one---am not!!!!

agree with you on this---------we only sell milk products, not golden goose. that is why we have FIRB at first place.....

short BAL now, risk 80 cents loss. if deal been rejected by FIRB then the shorts can reap few bucks reward. imho though

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/15/trump-says-...oil-supply.html

“There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification,” Trump said in a post on Twitter.

========================

lmaosmiley.gif keep the threat coming -----soon most of peoples will think he is just had BS big mouth and nothing else................
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 15 2019, 08:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

wandering ----what will happen to the market if USA leads the war against iran that start next week???? unsure.gif

only thing gonna jump up is OIL price next week. not so sure about other things.

try to be defensive is my view!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 11 2019, 03:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

hallelujah

ps.. i don't have religions.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

got a call for AUD/USD will rally to 0.6943 cps ish. not so sure it can get this high....but they had a call non the less.
just one of the ideas mick.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 10:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/us-nonfarm-...ugust-2019.html

The increase fell short of Wall Street estimates for 150,000, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, as expected. An alternative measure of the jobless rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, increased to 7.2% from 7% in July, due mainly to a 397,000 increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.

Wage growth remained solid, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% for the month and 3.2% over the year; both numbers were one-tenth of a percentage point better than expected.
============================

not sure how Fed to adjust the next rate cut---------- raise to the bottom from every major central banks.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/companies/sport/smith-s...20190906-p52oia

Smith's pressure-laden knock, which dragged his team from 2-28 to 8-438, was the third double-ton of his Test career.
===============================

when aussie need him, he usually steps up--------one of the best player i've seen. skill, mental ..... you name it!!

hope this team can bring the urn back to Australia this time. tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Sep 5 2019, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/cars-bi...20190905-p52o4i

The 2020 Porsche Taycan represents the biggest investment Porsche has ever made in a new model, Zellmer said, incorporating funds from $US6.6 billion the company has devoted to making electric vehicles at a new factory in Stuttgart. It benefits from the additional $US2 billion that parent group Volkswagen spent to erect the Electrify American program, a VW subsidiary that owns and maintains a national network to charge electric vehicles. Roughly $US800 million of that sum will be used to build an electric network in California alone.

==================

as i point out long before ------------------ev tech wasn't a big issues for other car maker. the real issue is how Govt. to support ---how to charge the ev cars..............

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 4 2019, 09:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

The drop deepened amid sluggishness among the Chinese mills responsible for producing more than half the world’s steel, and concerns over future demand
=================

world's steel production has been about 30% over supplied every year for many years by now. as housing boom nearly ended around world-----hmmm!!! have to reduce steel production i guess.
we see the ore price diving even without vale on line. am not bullish on ore going forward.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 30 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

at what price level i can have another big bite again??
it's been good tp me so far. tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/iro...20190822-p52jix


Iron ore's stunning fall to earth accelerated this week - credit to BHP - with the spot price now having tumbled almost 30 per cent this month.

The spot price, as reported by Fastmarkets MB, tumbled 6.3 per cent to $US82.38 a tonne at its Wednesday setting. It ended July at $US117.15; that's a 29.6 per cent retreat.

The catalyst was BHP's warning of global economic headwinds.




The most-traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for January 2020 delivery, fell for a fifth session in a row on Wednesday, closing down 4.3 per cent at 589.50 yuan a tonne, its weakest finish since June 10. It slid as much as 5.4 per cent during the session.

The most-active coke contract, also with January 2020 expiry, dropped 1.1 per cent to 1963 yuan a tonne, its lowest close in nearly five months.

"(BHP's outlook) suggested the market could see considerable volatility in prices ahead as the market continues to adjust to supply disruptions," ANZ Research said in a note.
==============================

even out of biggest producer VALE , the ore still over supplied???? ohmy.gif emmmm interesting!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 16 2019, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

im my mind------ Khawaja never ready since he join the team. every time when Aussie need him to perform and he goes pissing himself. i meant EVERY TIME!!

someone once told me here that we can't find another one better than him in whole country. i'm not a cricket exp, but c'mon sure they can find someone to replace him. he had way too many opportunities!!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Aug 15 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

asx200

short term support---------6425ish. if can't hold there then look at 6200ish
still it is in a uptrend.

too hard to call for US market. as they driven by irrational [greed and fears] these days. plus trump's tweets.... lmaosmiley.gif
but put a support for SPX .....near term 2806. not very accurate though.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 10:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-tr...w_theo_homepage

The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, -4.62% traded above the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -5.30% for the first time in over a decade early Wednesday, reinforcing recession worries.

-------------------------

as i did point out before 2 years /10 years------is the classic bench mark. so it's official , that economy gonna suffer big time months later. and markets gonna dive down first....


raise more cash !!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/cen...20190813-p52gje

new direction, having so far focused on office and industrial assets, but, given Australia's aging population, Mr McBain was bullish about the sector.

"We were amazed by the healthcare REIT sector in America; it's the second biggest REIT sector and the fastest growing too, so we are raring to put some capital into that business," he said.

=====================================

aging population isn't just in Australia, it is a global phenomenon .... i always think this is the sector that has really good growth future----world wide...not just in Australia..IMHO

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 13 2019, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...y_Sent=13082019

I may eat Waygu beef everyday washed down with the finest shiraz but, if I really want my new home, I can make do on much more modest fare.

================================

how modest one can be??? skip freakfast, lunch. only have sandwich for dinner---------------healthy , lose weight , and can qualify for a home loan from WBC. lmaosmiley.gif
GOOD SOLUTION !!!!!

i guess ASIC went too far this time.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now. You cannot solve the problems of debt with more debt. And central bankers, well-meaning and desperate as they might be to offset the damage caused by an erratic US president, can’t create real growth; they can only move money around. At some point, the markets and the real economy must converge.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=12082019

==================================================
looks so dark....mama bear ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/not-yet-ove...t-analysts.html

I’m not seeing major signs of capitulation just yet. Price action is being driven by news catalysts and while the move down has been short and volatility is extended to the upside, this isn’t quite the ‘blood in the streets’ type environment like we saw at the December 2018 low.”

========================================

hold little bit more cash.......................
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 6 2019, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/former-fed-...-wsj-op-ed.html

We are united in the conviction that the Fed and its chair must be permitted to act independently and in the best interests of the economy, free of short-term political pressures and, in particular, without the threat of removal or demotion of Fed leaders for political reasons,” stated the piece, signed by Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

==========================================

lmaosmiley.gif , is it useful??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

two major support for the asx200 bulls

6500ish then, 6375ish.

for SPX ---2880 then 2825, is can't hold them this week, we have full bloom correction-----witch means over 10% or more index point drop.

world is full of uncertainties currently. keep some cash in hand will be handy....imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

thought oil price would be way high than usd$55.30/b...............................
seems iran need to seizes more oil tanks.................... laugh.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 4 2019, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/04/iran-seizes...te-tv-says.html


Most analysts maintain war in the Persian Gulf remains unlikely, but fear that with tensions so high and no diplomatic channel of communication, a mere miscalculation could set off a serious conflict.
======================

gulf war unlikely???????? WTF!!

what's the price of WTI on monday when the future market opens??
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/trump-china...status-quo.html

the trade war going to get worse as i said many times by now.
even on the TA point of view markets have good chance of a big pull back, judging last tow days candles .................
take good care people.....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/08/02/jap...aguered-nufarm/


News of the placement saw Nufarm shares jump 7% at the opening and they traded higher through the rest of the session to close up 3% at $5.03.


The preference shares may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s election any time after two years time at an exchange price of $5.85 for each Nufarm share.




interest rate on the prefs tell us how tough it was for Nufarm to raise new capital from local shareholders. Nufarm will pay an interest rate of 6% for the first year (nearly $6 million a year), and this jumps to 10% for the rest of the period ($9.7 million a year). Nufarm can buy back the prefs at face value plus any unpaid distributions.
=========================

i missed it , i were greed,y try to wait for under 4 bucks........ weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ni-easing-cycle

hope you guys lisren to Powell talk...... tongue.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

nipper, seems market did that old trick-----sell on news. cool.gif

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/the-two-wor...al-markets.html

“I think by that it means he doesn’t necessarily mean more cuts are coming, maybe not necessarily one off but not indicative of more aggressive cuts,” said Ben Jeffery, a fixed income strategist at BMO

===================

to me ----why the heck cut it this time. f£$%%ing trumpie. you are a one term chairman anyway. let market have a good correction....at this level it need to be.. imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 31 2019, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

shooting wombat??? are they out of their fucking mind or what??? angry.gif
that freaking slow moving little lovely thing, how on earth anyone would target it??? and it is native animal as well!!
why the heck aussie authority allow this shooting club to operate ???
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 30 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/stock-marke...d-rate-cut.html

Despite a healthy economy and an unemployment rate under 4%, investors widely expect the central bank to cut its benchmark lending rate for the first time since 2008 by 25 basis points. The Fed, which seeks to keep inflation around 2%, has had trouble sustaining price growth in recent months despite a healthy economy and low unemployment.
===========================

for US market..... sell on news?? i meant to say " soon Fed cut rate by 25 pips", sell into market!!?? unsure.gif

asx200---- cash market is 50 points over future market, not sure where it will go today.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 29 2019, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-wha...w_theo_homepage


The moral here is that central banks policy has its limits. Europe and Japan have some very serious structural and demographic issues that central-bank policy alone cannot solve. I am worried that trying to do too much QE will backfire in Europe and Japan as administering more monetary medicine on a sick patient after it has not yet worked is probably not the way to proceed. For the time being, the dollar is likely to remain strong and returns from U.S. financial markets, be it the S&P 500 SPX, +0.74% or the 10-year Treasury, should continue to be better than anything in Europe or Japan.

======================

don't where to put this article .........
shhhhsh, all biz school can close down as most of central banks doing the "race to the bottom" thing these days....so sad to see !!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2019, 10:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

nothing new nipper...

we all biased , but most of us here have dignity .
as for the" pump and dump" ....is AFR clean????? lmaosmiley.gif

that's not the point, the point is hot copper become a threat to main medias like of AFR eg............ lmaosmiley.gif

we are living in digital world now. i for one is too old for the shit........... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2019, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/hotcopper-s...20190725-p52ane

how ASX-listed sharemarket forum HotCopper was often used by "dark ops investor relations advisers and pump-and-dump operators" to promote stocks the posters had no intention of holding for long to unwary punters at the best possible price


HotCopper's investments to 1H19 were down 30 per cent. Perhaps it should have been going short ...

============================

ah---oh!!! competition heats up?????
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2019, 10:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

how fast RIO can make it's new find to production?? 1 year or two years??

unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2019, 10:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

will AMP go broke ????? or it's price to buy it now and wait for the turn or TA ???
unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2019, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

you've got part of your wish Mick. sadsmiley02.gif

-----------------------------------------
https://au.yahoo.com/sports/cricket-world-c...-223036215.html

The Aussies were thoroughly outplayed at Edgbaston, beaten by eight wickets and completely blown off the park as England booked a date with New Zealand in Sunday's decider.

==================================

no matter what people says -----i reckon Steve is a top batsman . foo stop!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=05072019


They also claimed low rates are simply unfair. As of Tuesday, the Australian cash rate is at a record low 1 per cent and the Reserve Bank has agreed it could keep cutting "if needed".

==============================================

does it make sense ???? YES !! would RBA listen to him??? NO!!

IT IS A FASHION AROUND WORLD CENTRAL BANKS THESE DAYS!!!!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 03:52 PM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/forex-marke...n-in-focus.html


now, RBA did cuts , but AUD rallying. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/another-rb...y_Sent=02072019

The Australian Financial Review Rich Lister and shopping centre billionaire Con Makris and the chief executive of the largest collection of convenience shopping centres in Australia Anthony Mellowes both said cutting rates would not send the right signal.

"It will panic the people," Mr Makris said.

"Consumers already know the economy is not good and they are going to keep trying to save and they won't go out and spend,'' he said.


They should be leaving them where they are for quite a while and then start moving them up very slowly."
==================

lmaosmiley.gif , everyone can see that rate cut at current rate level and time is not effective.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://au.yahoo.com/news/newspaper-cartoon...-234500072.html

A cartoonist in Canada says he was effectively fired after producing a controversial cartoon of US president Donald Trump which has been described as both “in poor taste” and “heartbreakingly accurate”


===============

hahahha lmaosmiley.gif
hey !!! where is the democracy???? emmmmm, more of damn---crazy under the Trumpie----------YOU ARE FIRED !!!!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...w-yield-reality

Yields on the nation’s 10-year government bonds hit an all-time low 1.26% last week

For a country that avoided the worst of the turmoil that followed the global financial crisis and the unprecedented quantitative easing by central banks from the U.S., Japan and Europe, Australia is now having to contend with a possible future inside that club. The speed of the market’s change has raised eyebrows.



“On the screen a minute ago, Aussie 10-year bond yields at 1.33? I mean, is that a typo?” Richard Yetsenga, chief economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney, quipped in a recent Bloomberg TV interview. “Even six months ago they were like 100 points higher.”

=================

typo????? lmaosmiley.gif it is a fashion that RBA followed other major central bank really late stage ...i'm afraid it might face out vary soon!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/30/dow-futures...re-tariffs.html

That surge came after stocks recovered in June from a torrid May performance. The Dow soared 7.2% in June, its biggest gain for that month since 1938. The S&P 500, meanwhile, jumped 7.9% for the month, marking its best June performance since 1955.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose new levies on U.S. and Chinese goods after meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan on Saturday.

==================

is markets get too exited about this outcome???? unsure.gif the problem still not solved ---to me !! unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/g20-summit-...-trade-war.html


if history is any guide to the future, the gentlemen’s agreement struck between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies over the weekend in Osaka offers no clear path to rolling back tariffs and ending a trade war that threatens to tip the global economy into recession.

“It’s a temporary timeout,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, told CNBC. “I don’t see any path to a deal and we’re stuck with 25% tariffs on $250 billion of goods.



Trump not to impose additional tariffs, warning that such a move could cost 2 million American jobs.

And while business groups Saturday welcomed the renewed talks, they made clear they’re still anxiously waiting for a final deal. According to Boockvar, there’s little reason to celebrate.

“If I’m a CEO, waiting on how this weekend was going to go, do I feel any better? If I’m in manufacturing, maybe I feel a touch better it’s not worse in the short term, but I still have to deal with this 25% tariff and the threat of more tariffs hanging over,” he said.


No substantive progress was announced on the main issues in the dispute,” Goldman Sachs made clear in a note published on Saturday


according to Boockvar, if Trump decides to make good on his threat and impose tariffs on China’s remaining $300 billion in exports to the United States, the impact could be devastating.

“You can guarantee a global recession,” he said
====================================================

still fighting..............no clearer sign for the markets. thumbdown.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/25/feds-powell...-interests.html

he emphasized that politics won’t be a consideration as the Fed is “grappling” with the idea of a rate cut.

“The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures — what is often referred to as our ‘independence,’” Powell said in prepared remarks. “Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to short-term political interests. Central banks in major democracies around the world have similar independence.”

================

lmaosmiley.gif
seems Fed's rate cut isn't that certain now for the markets eh??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2019, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/heres-wall-...-20-summit.html

“This is fluid; surprises are not ruled out.”

============================================
how many surprises we've had so far?????????????????? lmaosmiley.gif

strange world and stupid leaders plus silly central bankers we have these days. weirdsmiley.gif

read the link----it shows the "play book"

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/24/dia...fy-g20-meeting/

Analysts say we should watch for fund managers of all sizes and some companies trying to dress up their end of financial year, half year (interim) quarter and month figures by buying and selling shares to set market prices or stuffing their balance sheets with cash.

They are all old tricks and include companies delaying payments to the start of the 2019-20 financial year, or getting pre-payments into their accounts to boost liquidity and cash holdings at the end of the financial year, the quarter or half year.

Share trading this Thursday and Friday should see the share prices of quite a few companies move a touch oddly at times.

==================

ahhh---ha----that good old "window dressing" time lmaosmiley.gif

no shorts should be fired at asx200 this week. full stop!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=24062019


With interest rates going lower globally you really have to think about businesses that will survive in tougher times and you really need to start considering balance sheets," says Lopez.

"Domestically we are at a point in time – it's been 28 years since our last recession – and we are starting to see the economic data weaken quite materially, whether that's gross domestic product or our anaemic wage inflation," she says.
That's coincided with a very indebted consumer which is deleveraging. They are not consuming. And that has to play out. So, as we move into this easing cycle of rates, my view is that the impact won't be as great as in previous cycles."

Timing is always the critical question," says Lopez. "I have no idea about when things will start unravelling or if and when the recession or slowdown happens."
------------------------------------------------------------------------#

all with logic and rational then

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
She has invested in some lesser-known Australian tech names, including cinema software group Vista and Serko – which provides the technology platform for travel firms such as Flight Centre.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

economic 101-----------------if like she predicted ---recession or slow down whatever
first few sectors gonna get hit really hard are ----travelers , retailers eg?????????? unsure.gif

may be i'm too harsh,
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-ar...w_theo_homepage

We’re at 3.6% unemployment with a 105% debt-to-GDP ratio, and the Fed is signaling three rate cuts. The track record is clear: It’s not good news for the economy and ultimately not good news for stocks either.



Cutting rates again is making wealth inequality even greater, is again punishing savers, is again pushing wealth toward asset-class holders and again encouraging more debt accumulation. In short: Make the bubble even bigger.

Let’s do it all again, except it’s different this time. It’s worse. Much, much worse.

But no central banker will ever admit it.


At least for now. Central banks have once again set in motion an environment where all asset classes are inflating. Stocks, bonds, gold, crypto — you name it. Everything is appreciating. Growth may be slow, but assets are flying higher. Asset inflation without growth. We are the Federal Reserve. Always wrong about growth and inflation, but always easy on the money front.

============================

lmaosmiley.gif i do agree with this analysis and logic, but not so sure about selling everything now. seems mama bear come out from woods again!! lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-ar...w_theo_homepage

It’s worse. Much, much worse. What is? Everything, in terms of preparedness for the next U.S. recession.

Debt is higher than ever, be it corporate debt, government debt or global central banks’ balance sheets. Limited ammunition to deal with a new recession, wealth inequality, the social divisions and political extremes, and now trillion-dollar deficits — everything points to a more fragile system. On paper, low interest rates keep it all afloat, but the context is as ugly as it gets.

Here we are, with the great collapse unfolding in front of us. With Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, we continued to witness an utter capitulation to market realities that are forcing central banks to commence new easing cycles. No, this is not a temporary rate-cut event they are promising; it’s a new cycle. The Federal Reserve offered a three-rate-cut outlook, which is precisely what markets had been pricing in. The Fed is bowing before market demands. Give us drugs. Yes, whatever you want, you got it.

=====================

it's really similar to me and a lot of others view. but the shit part is ----markets keeps going up and up.... so ironic weirdsmiley.gif

please, take bit of your time to read this link. worth your 10 minutes imho.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 11:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

“A limited war would likely push oil prices above $100 per barrel, while a major confrontation would likely drive prices above $150,” Rome said. But not all experts agree.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/heres-how-h...-with-iran.html

===============================

$57.25 for WTI might get it tonight or tomorrow . not sure after that on TA terms.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/fed-decisio...-unchanged.html

A divided Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates Wednesday and indicated formally that no cuts are coming in 2019. The decision came amid divisions over what is ahead and still leaves open the possibility that policy loosening could happen before the end of the year depending on how conditions unfold.

================

no cut , but jaw boning wink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

i thought NAB'S yield is higher than ANZ's ----am i right??? unsure.gif

why the heck JPM didn't point out that?? because they've been shorting it ??? devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/ecb-preside...a-portugal.html

on Tuesday, saying that it could cut interest rates again or provide further asset purchases if inflation doesn’t reach its target.
==============

WYF ...soon all of them will run out of bullets i guess..
""" do whatever it takes""" ehhh?? lmaosmiley.gif

---------------------
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/trump-rips-...-for-years.html
-----------------------------

“They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others,” Trump said in a tweet, noting a weaker euro would make it “unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA.”
==================================

but market still rallying , they are not scared anymore from drump's tweets???? lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

asx200

looks really bullish as AUD keeps dropping
6600 seems won't stop it from rise further ........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

nipper
can we have a nib for VOC or wait for it to drop another 25%??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

i had last little stake and set stops at 3.75. i guess the price rise on strait line is due to multiple reasons
one of them is the expectation of more rate cut to come, and peoples all chase yielding stocks TLS seems tick the box.

what about 4.25 Mick??

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/oil-jumps-m...lf-of-oman.html

Brent crude spiked 3% on Thursday morning on reports of tanker explosions in the Gulf of Oman.

==================

i just saw the rally in front my eyes, as i bought some WTI . didn't know the news untill now.
made good short term money though. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2019, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/analysts-...-015342616.html

This will have implications for S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) stocks. Those with large US dollar exposure will benefit from the weak exchange rate and they include the Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) share price and RESMED/IDR UNRESTR (ASX: RMD) share price, just to name a few.

On the flipside, those who sell locally and have US dollar costs could be disadvantaged. These include retailers like Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) – although they probably have more to worry about than the exchange rate – and Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL).
===============

Mick
is this the main reason for BLD to rise last few weeks??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2019, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/05/rba...new-record-low/


rate cuts have helped the economy rebalance after the end of the mining investment boom by supporting non-mining spending. If the cash rate was still 4.75% and mortgage rates 7.5% the economy would have long ago gone into recession.

the level of household debt is more than double that of household deposits, so the household sector is a net beneficiary of lower interest rates. The responsiveness to changes in spending power for a family with a mortgage is far greater than for retirees. And, even if many with a mortgage just let their debt get paid off faster in response to falling rates this provides an offset to the negative wealth effect of the fall in house prices

=======================

why the heck Australian have such high debt level at the first place???? BECAUSE of we have LOW interest rate for too freaking long!!!!!!!
only thing can blame for low interest is the -------globalization ------that create over supply with low price. imho


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2019, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

That’s an increase of more than 1.6 million barrels a day in the past 12 months. That rise came from shale increases from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

===========
Posted Nov 14 2018, 04:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oil-markets...y-in-focus.html

Most analysts expect U.S. output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.

"This will, in our view, cap any upside above $85 per barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management.

The surge in U.S. production is contributing to rising stockpiles.
=============

can't understand why the heck some major firm talking about usd$100/b not long ago??
a lot of people knows that when WTI over usd$55/b then most of US shale oil will make money hence the rig count will serge if oil stays above $55/b longer than two months
as the result----oil market washed with US shale oil now that whacked oil market . wink.gif
================================

i did this post last year. don't say people didn't get info about oil price here!! devilsmiley.gif

now, usd$50/b is the level that will set a lot of these shale producer decision . if oil price goes under 50 bucks then some of them can't make money, so they will reduce rigs........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/stan-drucke...hina-tweet.html

When the Trump tweet went out, I went from 93% invested to net flat and bought a bunch of Treasurys,” Druckenmiller said. “Not because I’m trying to make money, I just I don’t want to play in this environment.”

Trump “wants to run on tariffs. He thinks they are a winning formula in the swing states and the belligerent, sort of verbose pressure he’s putting — and the braggadocio toward China — he’s giving Xi Jinping no off-ramp to make a deal, ” the hedge fund manager added

================

we all know Soros have a good eye sigh . lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Mick
we all get these things wrong from time to time. but i can see your point this time as AUD keeps rally for two days before RBA cut the rate, and keeps upward after RBA did what market expecting them to do....

to me--------------------- RBA shouldn't cut it. but sydney and melbourne housing market down over 10% seems really spooked RBA ------

-what about housing affordability????? what can i say!!! i'm no body after all. sadsmiley02.gif
only can swearing----:"stupid RBA" !!!!! thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/stocks-rise...s-in-check.html

US 10 years yield -----2.102%
US 2 years yield-------1.885%

but 200 sma didn't hold stock market
wondering what if 10 years----2 years yield curve inverted ???? that gonna be really ugly i guess!!






















5
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-p...y_Sent=03062019


"We are still bearish on the Aussie dollar but this tempers it," Mr Been said.

"When you are a net receiver of funds you become more vulnerable, but our current account shows that we have become much more self sufficient in funding ourselves.

"So if the absence of a large current account deficit means that a low interest rate differential does not trigger material $A weakness, then that rate differential is more sustainable than in the past."

ANZ expects heightened volatility will still push the Australian dollar to US65¢ this year. It is currently trading at just over US69¢.

Citi analysts have noted that the average cumulative rate cut in the past four easing cycles in Australia has been 3 percentage points.
=================

unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

SL: (B) 2724.85 4 hours low volatility level
RL: (A) 2779.31 4 hours high volatility level
Target Period: 4 hours

Interval 1 hour
Length 24 Candles
Identified 01-Jun-06:00
================

SPX will test 2710ish then nest support is at 2635ish, then 2557, if these fib retrace can't hold this slide , then we look at at 2314---2450 ish support zone. if still can't hold there then we will have few years bear market waiting for us. that is all my TA. but IMHO .


asx200
we should see it test 6300ish soon if can't hold there then 6215---6275 support zone for short term. if all give away then look at 5950ish. imho.

DYOR as always!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 31 2019, 10:05 AM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-sla...w_theo_homepage

"On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,"

=================

SPX future dropped like a sack potatoes after this news.

now the 200 sma is give away, we have to look down as TA point it to go.......

asx200 to test 6300 rather really sooner imho. [even RBA CUT THE RATE]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 07:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

US 10 years and 3months yield curve inverted last night---briefly.
but it is not a classic one, even it is acting as a warning shots...

people please focus on 10years/2yearsb curve. if this one inverted -----then RUN not WALK---for your lives IMHO

now US market is holding 200 sma. not so sure how long it can hold it through. see how it goes tonight!! blink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

seems it will be the biggest winner of this trade war....... lmaosmiley.gif

funny after people nearly forget this one and trump got it live again..........

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 04:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/scary-patte...move-lower.html


The so-called head and shoulders pattern formed when the S&P 500 broke support at 2,800, and from there, analysts said it could lose another 5.4%. The S&P also fell below its 200-day moving average at 2,776, an important level of support and momentum indicator.

”...if the 2800 area breaks, it would confirm a head and shoulders top that suggests deeper downside risk to 2650, which is also the 50% retracement of the December to May rally,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch technical analysts wrote in a note. The top of the pattern would be the top of the head at 2,950, and 2,800 was considered the neckline.

===================

just food for thought.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2019, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

asx200 is at 6418

if 6375 didn't hold it then we look it down to 6300ish for really short term {few sessions},
keep the shorts and set stops at 6488 target it 6300 [ most likely will hit there in few sessions imho]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2019, 02:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/jamie-dimon...investment.html

“I think trade is a real issue,” Dimon said Tuesday at a conference in New York. “Trade has gone from being a skirmish to being far more important than that. If this goes south in a bad way, and you have other surprises, that could be part of the thing that changes confidence, changes peoples’ willingness to invest.”
=============

blink.gif , market just realize it now?? thought they knew it long ago!! cool.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 23 2019, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

trish regan
i kinda remember she use to work at CNBC right??
now she talks like trump now. lmaosmiley.gif
to be fair -----USA printed greenback day and night for last 30 years or so, the value of the greenback backed by their military power and american living in heavens and doing nothing.
on the other hand----chinese steeling most of the industral produce rights from everyone around world, and use the dictatorship to take advantage from capitalism to achieve their economic miracles

now they both want a fight. end game is-------no good for everyone!! imho

funny to see trish go wild lmaosmiley.gif . she representing a lot american i guess..

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2019, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

i laughed so much----in freaking tears..hahaha lmaosmiley.gif

http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2019/05/21/8332242.html

hi triage, this is real Mao era's song they just changed words to "trade war"#
f$%^ing stupid trump he pushed chinese insane as well!!! hahahahhahah

triage ....now this is real "10 years culture revolution" stuff. no kidding!!

seems this trade war turn for the worse case..

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2019, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

asx200 at 6500
time to to have a little rest . the cheering for Scotty will be over ---either this session or tomorrow. imho

took a shorts at 6500 myself. aim it down to 6400ish within weeks.. just for a trade. for longer term investors the bullish trend for asx200 is well intact .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2019, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...521-p51pmd.html

He said there were a range of options to help cut the jobless rate.

"These include: further monetary easing; additional fiscal support, including through spending on infrastructure; and structural policies that support firms expanding, investing and employing people," he said.

==============

shorted AUD again. see what's happen.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2019, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

don't get it!! RBA still consider a rate cut by next meeting. are they out of their mind???

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

4 majors all jumped up for good old short squeeeeeezzzzzz

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 08:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics...unts/ar-AABAFPP

a spokeswoman for the Trump Organization, the umbrella company for the Trump family’s many business interests, said: “We have no knowledge of any ‘flagged’ transactions with Deutsche Bank.” She said the Trump Organization currently has “no operating accounts with Deutsche Bank.” She did not respond when asked if other Trump entities had accounts.

===================

wondering why it's surface now?? didn't trump attack DBK not long ago?? pay back time eh??


--------------
Ms. McFadden disputed that. She said her superiors had reduced the number of transactions she was assigned to review after she voiced her concerns. She and the two former managers said they perceived her termination as an act of retaliation.

“They attempted to try to silence me,” she said. “I’m at peace because I know that I did the right thing.”
-----------------------

should get her back now , DBK need her....... lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 08:09 AM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/time...20190519-p51oz5

Australian dollar shorts are at risk of an imminent squeeze and should be closed out in the likely event that the currency appreciates against the greenback when trading resumes on Monday.

As the Coalition closes in on a win in the federal election on Saturday, this has presented a surprise scenario for foreign-exchange markets guided by earlier polls favouring a Labor victory.
======================

a short term pump up for AUD seems likely.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2019, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alia-s-election

The Stock Market Winners and Losers From Australia's Election

===============

major banks will be in for the pump, for short term.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2019, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-201...519-p51ova.html

Federal Election 2019 LIVE: Scott Morrison declares victory as Bill Shorten steps down as Labor leader

====================

all done and dusted now. i'm happy that i can playing fully franked divy game for another 4 years. tongue.gif
on ya Scotty!!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2019, 11:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/assessing-s...-195323646.html

Since 2016, the stock market has been grappling with a new risk: President Trump’s tweets. Yahoo Finance's Scott Gamm discusses how traders are tuning out the noise.
=============

lmaosmiley.gif , yeap....trump's tweets for traders.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2019, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

mick, not sure if you still hold shorts of AUD. i still have some.

if AUD doesn't hold current level, it rather will go down to 0.63ish quickly imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 16 2019, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

TLS is approach my short term target 3.50.
if anyone hold the trade till now, might log in the profit.

longer term ---my target is 3.80ish.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 16 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-admin...-trade-war.html

The Trump administration plans to delay auto tariffs by up to six months, stopping itself for now from widening global trade disputes, four sources told

===============

stupid trump------6 months??? everyone and their dogs know now that trump try to kick chinese first then turn the run to kick EU,
should delay for 6 year, that will get whole westen world help him contain china .
mad and silly----that's trump.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Start then with inflationary fire. Much of what is going on right now recalls the early 1970s: an amoral US president (then Richard Nixon) determined to achieve re-election, pressured the Federal Reserve chairman (then Arthur Burns) to deliver an economic boom.

He also launched a trade war, via devaluation and protection. A decade of global disorder ensued. This sounds rather familiar, does it not?
https://www.afr.com/news/economy/fire-or-ic...y_Sent=15052019


man oh man!! not feel good atm

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

so, banks not necessarily the bastards (just prudent)?

===========================================

ask RC . seems they have the answer you wanted nipper.
it is a chaotic world out there. i for one not gonna bet my bottom dollar on it----it's just too risky. unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential...y_Sent=15052019

Sydney developer Mark Bainey has pooled $50 million from wealthy investors to bulk buy newly-completed apartments at up to 30 per cent discounts as oversupply fears and high funding costs start to bite projects amid the weaker market conditions.

......

“We have been fielding approaches from concerned developers who have been unable to sell due to oversupply concerns in suburbs such as Epping, Parramatta, Mascot, Macquarie Park and Waterloo,” he said

....

Alongside apartment fires sales, developers are also coming under pressure to sell whole projects by their non-bank lenders.
===============================
i reckon it just start. the distress will run a lot deeper and further.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

President Donald Trump said that he feels talks with China “are going to be very successful” as he confirmed he will meet President Xi Jingping at next month’s G-20 summit. His comments came after the U.S. Trade Representative’s office released the list of $300 billion of Chinese goods that are next in line for a 25% tariff while Beijing announced its own trade measures. Trump may be coming under pressure from inside the Republican party as the standoff is increasing pain for American farmers, among the president’s most loyal supporters. Markets are recovering some of the worst of yesterday’s sell-off as hopes of a deal linger

=============

"i have a feeling"---......wooojee mama!! keep your tweets coming!! lmaosmiley.gif WTF
soon he will be "martin luther king" if needed!!



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/trade-war-c...o-bully-it.html

“Negotiate, sure!”

“Fight, anytime!”

“Bully us, wishful thinking!”

===================================

oh yearh!!!!!! keep fighting---dictatorship vs mad man. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

tongue.gif
i can see how quiet those "chating sites" are when market drops big time.
it is good chance for investors like you nipper whom have supper longer term view.


for traders like me

asx200 have to hold 6175ish for short term [use 1 hour candles]. if not, then look down for short term.

spx 2788 is the key for bulls and bears to fight out for tonight.

keep eye on the news and market reaction, it is time for traders have a good focus and make few bucks here and there imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

it is normal for market goes up and down.
just hope that all the major central banks don't be overly lose this time, because money supply already reach the danger point of "hyper inflation".
if these bankers keep that lose policy for longer, we all will be screwed. and there is no way back.
reminds me how they start first world war. only this time they have nukes......... thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 10:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ods-from-june-1

China says it will raise tariffs on part of $60 billion worth of U.S. goods from June 1, Bloomberg News reports. Some 2,493 goods will see levies raised to 25%, according to a statement on the Chinese government’s website.

==================

now we can expecting a full on trade war DO WE??????? devilsmiley.gif

keep fighting, it is good to everyone. lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2019/05/13/8305560.html

hope you guys can get someone to translate it.
basicly it says " no trees grow to the sky" it is long and painful housing bear market with aussies.

well, we still have someone hold bullish view with our beloved housing market from those "housing gurus".
i'm in the bear camp/

.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/the-s...y_Sent=13052019

And if any investors think Clark might change direction any time soon, think again. "If you talk to any manager," he says, "they always want to be bullish, and the classic line will be, 'There's always a bull market somewhere.' My observation is there's always a bear market somewhere."

=======================

one hell off shorter ----all or nothing. tip my hat off to him. hypocrite.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2019, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

U.S. Gives China a Month for Trade Deal as Talks Stay Deadlocked

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...stay-deadlocked
===========================================


on wall street ---they say " trump's tweet is worse than inside trading" i kinda agree with them. .......... lmaosmiley.gif .......... hay!! where is FBI???

====================

.... lmaosmiley.gif ........ WTF

we can through all the TA--FA , whatever A;s out of windows. just look at trumoie's tweeters. thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2019, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

TPG/VODAFONE merger been knocked back again. and TLS jumped back to 3.38

still hold mine, to face current uncertainty , better hold some defensive thingy than sorry imho.

to me TLS will hit 3.5 from TA point of view.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 9 2019, 09:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Friday tomorrow-----last date of trade talks between US and China

don't hold large position to it. long or short.
next Monday we will know all about it do we???? lmaosmiley.gif
on wall street ---they say " trump's tweet is worse than inside trading" i kinda agree with them. .......... lmaosmiley.gif .......... hay!! where is FBI???

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

saw a lot of small gold Co. went up as well. at least we see people start to do bit of hedging.

kinda amazing how people lost fears in market!! blink.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

risk always there , don't understand as why the market goes up and up last few weeks .
now, seems everyone is heading to the exit door???

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

morning guys

i always worried about this could happen, and i this is what i wake up to this morning
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

but from TA point of view there isn't end of world yet.
if bulls can hold s&p500 at 2870ish, then uptrend still intact for short term. if it gives away, then look down imho.

for our market asx200 would be nasty today i guess

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

Mick
will see gold jump up with this news????
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 3 2019, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Australia's Huge Stock Rally Faces a Rude Awakening

Promises of easy monetary policy have sent Australia’s stocks soaring to the highest in more than a decade. But there’s a speed bump: Soft profit growth.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has eluded a weakening economy and a deepening housing slump to soar near levels not seen since before the global financial crisis. Speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates has helped drive the gauge up more than 12 percent this year, but results from Australia’s biggest banks and third-quarter trading updates could cause the nation’s stocks to sputter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia
==============

TA AND FA just not on the same page..... i'm really confused atm.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 2 2019, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

if there is a bank for me to buy, it will be NAB. imho

their divy still better than ANZ and restructuring pain for NAB nearly over. only thing stopped me to buy it today, is that i think our property down term is far far from over. not sure why those "[rpperty guru" out in force again. unsure.gif don't think it is right time for them to ramping housing market again. anyway, it's just me nipper. i'm really bearish with housing market.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

From memory the construction sector employs about 9% of Australian workers s
====

yeah triage. you are right about that, and also Mick is right about infrastructure will try to hold sliding down housing market for aussie economy.

here is the thing i try to point out.
if our property market really have a nasty down turn like what Mag siad{ i really agree with him/her],, then it will spreading to other sectors likes of retailers eg...
also, Chinese Govt. is trying really hard to contain the money flow to other countries-----THEY TRY TO PLUG ALL THE LOO POLES AS THEY CAN. so there will be far less money from China to our housing market form now on.
a couple have salary about 130k/a owns 7 properties { all leveraged} dream of getting rich ---------not sure how they gonna deal with current situation . if they don't sell most of them now to take loss then banks will force them to do if housing market keeps down term at current pace. that will spill the disaster

a lot of Chinese still believe "getting rich by buying properties} i guess soon they will learn the lesson for their life ----IN A HARD WAY.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Walking away: Greenfield lot defaults hit 27 per cent in Melbourne

One in four new home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne is defaulting on their housing lot purchases due mainly to financing and valuation shortfalls, forcing developers to resell these lots in a market where monthly sales rates have hit seven-year lows, new figures show.
Victoria, the country's biggest greenfield land market, is at the epicentre of the surge in defaults, with its cancellation rate hitting 27 per cent in the first quarter of the year, up from a 12 per cent default rate in the December 2018 quarter and just a 2 per cent fallover rate a year prior, according to land consultancy Research4.

Alongside the surge in defaults, Research4 figures show that Melbourne lot sales tumbled to just 539 a month in the first quarter of the year, down from 2200 at the peak of the market in mid-2017.
Research4 director Colin Keane said a cancellation rate above 15 per cent was a "strong red flag" regarding the mindset of "home builders and households".

"The spike is being driven by the fact that people are not prepared to wait the average 15 months from contract signing to settlement, that contracts signed in mid-2018 are all overvalued by $35,000 to $45,000 and that it's hard getting a loan approved at an agreed value and on time," Mr Keane said.

He said some Melbourne buyers were walking away and forfeiting their deposits on lots purchased between March 2018 and March 2019 because they were better off resigning at a lower price supported by the current high-valued incentives that have swept through the market.

In NSW, the default rate more than doubled to 26 per cent in the March quarter, while in South East Queensland almost one in five lots sales are being cancelled with both markets experiencing much lower sales volumes.

The Research4 figures follow February warnings by developer Nigel Satterley that the Melbourne lot default rate was 20-25 per cent "at a minimum" and forecast a rapid fall in prices that is now occurring.

Mr Satterley, a Rich Lister whose Satterley Property Group accounts for about one in 10 lot sales in Melbourne, said speculators, including his Melbourne Uber taxi drivers who were pooling credit cards to buy lots, had fuelled the rampant price growth and surge in lot sales that occurred in 2017 and early 2018.

"We believe that over the next 30 months 5000 growth-area lots (about 165 lots a month) will return to the market, either by defaults or speculators having to resell their blocks immediately," Mr Satterley said in December.

The Research4 figures – based solely on cancelled lots being re-advertised by the respective project – show 201 Melbourne lots were cancelled per month in the first three months of the year, up from 127 per month in the December quarter.

Had Research4 included more than 1000 Melbourne lots listed privately on the Gumtree Index for nomination sale, the default rate would have been even higher.

"This scenario is Melbourne-centric and will play out right through this year and into 2021," he said.

Amid the weakening land market, incentives and resales have become two big features of the changing landscape.

In March, The Australian Financial Review reported Research4 figures showing the average incentive being offered in Melbourne was $12,800 with some as high as $45,000.

Some, like major developer Frasers, have invited buyers to negotiate prices on unsold projects, while in December Stockland, the country's biggest land developer, sold its prized The Grove Estate in Tarneit to Frasers for $202 million amid pressure to reduce its exposure to the Melbourne market.

Project marketer RPM Real Estate Group reported in February that more than a third of all Melbourne housing lots advertised online were resales by buyers who can't get financing or speculators trying to flip sites prior to settlement.

==================

looks really bleeding, but we still haven't see housing price crash down yet. when it dose it will be really ugly i guess.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 08:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

told these people there is danger for US and China go to physical war when i'm in shanghai, but no one ---NO ONE whom believe it will happen.
i just shake my head to them. not sure how these arrogant chinese mums and paps react when they seen this news. unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 05:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

RBA weighs alternatives to a cut
There are several reasons why this more targeted approach to supporting the weakest component of the Australian economy may be preferred to an outright cut.

Industry participants believe the central bank and banking regulator are considering a targeted alternative to a cut to the official cash rate, which would involve lowering the minimum 7.25 per cent interest rate banks use when assessing a home loan borrower’s repayment capacity by 50 basis points to 6.75 per cent.

This would improve the average home buyer’s borrowing capacity by more than 5 per cent and increase demand in the weak housing market, which was a key driver of the low March quarter inflation numbers (newly built house price inflation declined by 0.2 per cent while rental inflation was very soft at 0.1 per cent).


In December 2014 the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) introduced the minimum 7 per cent interest rate on all home loan serviceability tests as a part of its suite of “macro-prudential” constraints to cool ebullient housing activity, which ultimately precipitated the correction that commenced in late 2017.

According to mortgage brokers, more than 90 per cent of banks apply a further 0.25 per cent buffer to this minimum benchmark.

With Australia’s 10-year government bond yield only 1.8 per cent, financial markets are not pricing in any material RBA rate hikes for a decade (this yield proxies the average RBA cash rate over the next 10 years plus a term premium to compensate for interest rate volatility).

The average discounted new home loan rate in Australia has been just 4.5 per cent since the RBA’s last interest rate cut in August 2016 with many borrowers paying as little as 3.4 per cent today.


A standard two percentage point buffer above contemporary discounted home loan rates implies that a prudent serviceability test could be carried out at a much lower 6 per cent level, well below the 7.25 per cent level assumed by most lenders.

Mortgage brokers say that reducing the minimum serviceability rate from 7.25 per cent to 6.75 per cent would boost the maximum borrowing capacity of a two-income household earning gross wages of $160,000 annually from $870,000 today to $915,000.


There are several reasons why this more targeted approach to supporting the weakest component of the Australian economy may be preferred to an outright cut to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate.

First, the federal budget is now in surplus on all key measures and there are good grounds for policymakers to assume that fiscal rather than monetary policy is better placed to provide any extra stimulus, especially when the latter is approaching its conventional limits. Inevitable pork-barrelling as part of the looming election further reinforces the case for the RBA to wait and see what role fiscal policy has to play.
Second, commodity prices remain very high, and notably above Treasury’s conservative budget assumptions, which means the budget will likely continue to deliver larger surpluses than are presently expected.
Third, recent economic data out of the US has surprised on the positive side with first quarter GDP growth of 3.2 per cent (annualised) beating all forecasts (consensus was much lower at 2.0 per cent). It is likely that once presidents Trump and Xi agree on a trade deal, global growth will rebound after a period where it has been stymied by tariffs and the trade impasse between the world’s two largest economies.
Fourth, if the RBA cuts its cash rate further below the current record 1.5 per cent low, it will fundamentally undermine deposit-takers’ net interest margins, which could threaten financial stability at a time where banks’ returns on equity face a multiplicity of headwinds. The interest margins banks realise on their transaction accounts, which normally charge no interest, are constrained by a 0 per cent lower bound. Put differently, it is unlikely that banks will start charging negative interest rates on these accounts to preserve the spread between the cost of sourcing funding via these deposits and the interest rates banks earn on their loans.
Finally, there is an argument that the RBA should preserve its monetary policy ammunition – and further cuts to borrowing rates that are already at historical lows – for a time when the Australian economic faces a real crisis, such as a long overdue recession.

=========
each to their own. to me the rate cut won't help aussie housing market as RBA rate is the lowest in history.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

thanks nipper.
i did little dig while i'm in shanghai. aging problem are the problem for the whole world , but in china it is worse than others because of one child policy they use to have, now it start to bites chinese hard.
economy there isn't in good shape , but i went to a lot restaurants, they all seems doing ok. that means people still doing ok. everyone seems focus on "trade war" and think it will have good ending{ not sure why they are so confident}. they seems over confident for themselves . chinese Govt. still has iron grips on properties for the tie1 cities---try to put lid on the bubbly price.
they also try to push people to invest in stock market that give chinese economy a little boost . not sure it will work or not?? unsure.gif

come back to aussie market
asx200 looks gonna keeps going up for the wrong reason-----aussie dollar dropped. wink.gif other than that i don't see any reason for asx200 to hit all time high. but the TA looks that way.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2019, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

just got back from shanghai----nearly two moths with my sick mum who lives in a rehab center with all these oldies sickness---sadness.

looks not many trading index or to share the infos here.
i hope someone readers can feed me little bit....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 06:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/tax/th...y_Sent=08032019

Is it a "retiree tax" grab or an end to "welfare for the wealthy"? Labor's pledge to make franking credits non-refundable has become one of the most hotly contested issues in Australia.

Depending on which side of politics you speak to, the proposal is either a massive tax grab (the Coalition) or the end of a loophole that benefits multimillionaires (Labor)
===========

i don't like to showing my political views, but to aim at franking credit .......poooooo, it is bit too low. thumbdown.gif

people working hard when they ware young and safe bit more to fund little better retired life ,,,,how on earth Labor will target this part........

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eory-is-garbage

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s not a proponent of modern monetary theory.

“That’s garbage,” Fink said in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it could drive them to an unsustainable level. ”

=======================

i tent to agree with him. people need to understand what is the "live with your means" these days.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Chinese Buyers Helped Boost Australian Home Prices. Now They're Leaving

https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

================

vary good news to my ears. i heard a lot of them can't settle their "off plan" ...hope housing price drop another 20% ---that will sent a lot of them packing. cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 7 2019, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

It's hard to think of a scenario where interest rates would need to go up this year. The inflation pressures are very benign, wage growth remains low and the current rate of wage growth is unlikely to generate an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent," Dr Lowe said.

"There are quite a lot of things weighing on the rate of inflation at the moment so I think it's quite unlikely that inflation is going to be a problem any time soon. And if it's not, then we can keep with the current setting of monetary policy for some time."

He also disputed that low rates fuelled the growth of property prices to unsustainable levels, conceding that while interest rates played a small part this was overshadowed by the inflexibility of housing supply to meet the groundswell of demand supported by population growth.

Supply eventually caught up, but arrived later, he said.

https://www.afr.com/markets/rba-defies-the-...y_Sent=07032019

===============================
rate is too low -----so. no plan to cut it RBA
wondering .what if housing price down another 15% this year?? don't think rate cut will help much IMHO.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 6 2019, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
==================

the rate already at historic low, how you gonna loosen it???? HOW??

RBA screwed the rates up alright. they should raise it when they had chance two years ago. now RBA almost run out bullets.

i guess we have to whethering this down tern without the medicine from RBA----witch will running longer and deeper i'm afraid !! cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 5 2019, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

ask for help........ please explain to me


-----------------
Distribution Amount
AUD 0.08000000
Ex Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Record Date
Wednesday March 6, 2019
------------

Distribution Amount
AUD 1.50000000
Ex Date
Monday March 4, 2019
Record Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Payment Date
Wednesday March 20, 2019
=============

why the hack that " record date" is one day after "ex--date"???
and which is last date to hold stock that be able to get the divy?????
so confused!!! unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 4 2019, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

We expect that China would focus much of its total purchase commitment on agricultural and energy commodities," Goldman said, adding that Beijing can then reduce purchases of those products from other suppliers, as they are "less differentiated and much easier to substitute."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/04/goldman-sac...-look-like.html
==============

logical, no surprise!!!!!!!! i guess most of marketers predict this outcome.

we saw the charts of A50 today------looks like a text book stuff--------------sell on news!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 01:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Having been bitten by both a brown snake and a red back
=====================


wholly crap Mick! ohmy.gif you just made my whole body hair stand up.................zhzzzzzzz!!

hi draughtsman, your sound you are really know that place well..... lucky you!! tongue.gif

nipper
i've seen red back in my front and back yard{{kill them with spry}----it is little in size. i'm amazed how can it take a relatively large snake down........ {something like "dog bites man"]

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

Date of this announcement
Tuesday February 26, 2019
Distribution Amount
AUD 0.08000000
Ex Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Record Date
Wednesday March 6, 2019
Payment Date
Wednesday March 27, 2019
======================================

assume 16cps ff divy for full year at$ 2.40....... seems people really scared about RC ...

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 10:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

the world is getting little heavier -----fight jet shoot down --break down the talks between Kim and Trump.......it goes on and on

so i like to relax myself and might be you guys

===========
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/deadly...wins/ar-BBUcc0H

=======

love these type of nature events, always amazed by them. somewhere i can hide myself. ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 03:30 PM


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Posts: 12,491

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/china-econo...mi-release.html

China factory activity shrinks to 3-year low in February, export orders worst in a decade
The official Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, data showed on Thursday, the weakest level since February 2016.
This comes as export orders fell at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, highlighting deepening cracks in an economy facing weak demand at home and abroad.
"Unless the trade war truly turns into an extended truce, the weakening trend may not end quickly," Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING, said in a note. "As such we expect March's PMI to fall, too."

===========

this type of headline could weaken aussie economy and push down AUD .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 27 2019, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

looks bit out steps ??

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/indian-air-...e-official.html

Pakistan shoots down Indian jets, carries out airstrikes in Kashmir


==============
will it trigger something even bigger ?? unsure.gif
market bulls better run for cover i guess!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 27 2019, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,491

not direct relate to Tesla, but don't know hwere to put it as i think it is really important thing to whole EV sector.

===============
https://www.bloomberg.com/hyperdrive

Just a few years ago, automakers had a largely uniform response to questions about the construction of refueling stations for electric vehicles: “Not my job.” Today, they’re starting to realize that no one else is going to build stations at the scale needed to stimulate sales of battery-powered cars, so they’ll have to do it themselves. “Charging infrastructure is a bottleneck,” says Andreas Tschiesner, head of the European automotive practice at McKinsey & Co. Carmakers are “ready to get the ball rolling because nothing is happening on its own.”

Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford Motor, and BMW have teamed up to create Ionity, a company that’s building charging stations across Europe. VW has formed Electrify America, a unit that will spend $2 billion on stations in the U.S., and the German company is considering a similar operation in China. Porsche is installing chargers at dealerships and is working with BMW and Siemens to develop ultrafast charging. And Japan’s big manufacturers have set up a company to promote installation of quick chargers.

BOTTOM LINE - Automakers will spend $255 billion developing hundreds of e-car models by 2023, and will need a wide network of charging stations to persuade customers to buy them.
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“Charging infrastructure is a bottleneck,” -----problem that hard to fix....really Govt. to step in to help.
Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford Motor, and BMW have teamed up to create Ionity, a company that’s building charging stations across Europe-------they doing it for Tesla?? nah, they will kill Tesla i reckon.


that is two big things i'm bearish on Tesla. i'm sure people have a lot other things to say as well..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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