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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:35 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM

Hope it does go above 69, will be buying FOREX at above 69.20.
Just on that note, despite the sanctions in Russia, the Rouble has been the big mover this year.
From Chuck Butler

QUOTE
Well, the BIG news from this weekend as far as currencies are concerned came from Russia, where after 5 years of economic sanctions, the Russian economy continues to grow! Industrial output is on the rise, the Russians believe they will have a record harvest this year, their Current Account is in surplus by $500 Billion… and… Inflation, which has always been a bugaboo for the Russians, has been falling for the past couple of years, and while it was expected to fall to 4.3% this year, it appears that it will be more likely around 3%... With deposit rates still above inflation, that means that Russia, as opposed to most countries, the U.S. included, do not have real negative rates…

The currency, the ruble, rallied big time on the news

More from Chucks Newsletter
QUOTE
Coming in second place for the currency news was China's announcement that they would cut their Reserve Ratio percentage by 50 Basis Points (1/2%). A Reserve Ration cut is akin to an interest rate cut, as it frees up more money to use to support the economy... This news was welcomed by the Asian and Pan Asian Currencies and followed by a rally in this region's currencies.

And just when it appeared that the Chinese renminbi would slip off the ledge and fall into a deep dark abyss, this reserve ratio cut allowed the renminbi to rally for what seems like the first time in month of Sundays!

it's not all gloom and doom news coming from the U.K. these days, although I do have to say that this one caught me by surprise... U.K. GDP saw a 0.3% growth print for July, after June's 0.0% print, there were, and I among them, economists that thought the U.K. was already in recession...

This news was welcomed in the European region, and allowed pound sterling to rally, but left the euro stuck in the mud.
.
So Russia, with a load of sanctions, the UK with the problems of Brexit, both have economies that are travelling well ahead of the pack.
There must be a lesson in this, just can't work out what it is.

Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 7 2019, 04:01 PM

got a call for AUD/USD will rally to 0.6943 cps ish. not so sure it can get this high....but they had a call non the less.
just one of the ideas mick.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 7 2019, 04:01 PM
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AUD about to go below 67 handle.
Gold in AUD terms is now over 200.
Wonder how long it will take before we start to see some inflationary effects creeping into prices, especially as transport costs go up.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Jul 2 2019, 03:52 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/forex-marke...n-in-focus.html


now, RBA did cuts , but AUD rallying. lmaosmiley.gif



 
darrenhappy
post Posted: Jun 28 2019, 02:25 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM

looks like resistance 70050 aud/usd maybe broken, 70400 next, overcooked on the daily, undrcooked on the weekly so expecting volatility however trend is good


 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 5 2019, 02:01 PM

Not this year, going in for a new knee.

Had hoped to put it off for a few years, but time has come says surgeon,

Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 02:01 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM

QUOTE
.. hard to read or understand this market...
-time for a O/S holiday?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM
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So, the RBA drops rates and signals there will be more.
The GDP figures out today show the economy is at its slowest since the GFC days.
So what happens to the AUD?? It heads past 70 cents again.
Pretty hard to read or understand this market.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 10:47 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM

Thanks EB, I have stopped crying now.
The problem is, I just can't see how its going to help.
if they were hoping to drive the AUD down and import inflation, well that failed miserably.
The Housing price falls are only a problem when the equity becomes negative. No amount of interest rate cust are going to help that situation.
The self funded retirees(like me) are curing cos their incomes will drop a bit more.
And if things go really pear shaped and they need to stimulate the economy, they have fewer arrows in the quiver.
If we go to 1% in June, as so many of the experts are saying, they only have four 25 basis point cuts then we are at 0.

Mick




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early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 4 2019, 02:56 PM

Mick
we all get these things wrong from time to time. but i can see your point this time as AUD keeps rally for two days before RBA cut the rate, and keeps upward after RBA did what market expecting them to do....

to me--------------------- RBA shouldn't cut it. but sydney and melbourne housing market down over 10% seems really spooked RBA ------

-what about housing affordability????? what can i say!!! i'm no body after all. sadsmiley02.gif
only can swearing----:"stupid RBA" !!!!! thumbdown.gif



 
 


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