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joules mm1
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#process #repeatability #stickability

https://twitter.com/TexasTechMBB/status/1201631062943645698
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 7 2019, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

video https://twitter.com/i/status/1203174797112434688
#ice #melt #anecdotal #glacier

excerpt:
" Lemon Creek Glacier in Juneau, where records go back to the 1940s,
had its second consecutive year of record mass loss, with 3 meters erased from the surface,


U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Louis Sass told Reuters.

Melt went all the way up to the summit, said Sass, one of the experts who travel to


benchmark glaciers to take measurements in the fall."

... Taku is melting, said Mauri Pelto, who heads the North Cascades Glacier Climate Project.


This year, the summer melt reached as high as 1,450 meters, 25 meters above the


previous high-altitude record set just last year, he said. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-...e-idUSKBN1YA19N
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 7 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Excerpt:"For nearly 600 years, priests have observed ice cover on the lake here in the Japanese Alps,
diligently recording it by hand. These documents represent one of the world’s oldest continuous measurements of climate change, written long before the priests knew what they were providing. "

#observational #anecdotal #ice #retreat #Japanhttps://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...nge-japan-lake/

"Shinto priests at Lake Suwa have been observing a mythic ice phenomenon since the 1400s.


Now, the ice is getting ever thinner and the lake is slowly vanishing from the everyday lives of the people who surround it. "

By MARI SAITO in SUWA, JAPAN
Photographs by ISSEI KATO

Filed: December 06, 2019, 12 p.m. GMT

(it's a very long article and some pictures take a few seconds to load.....worth the effort, i say it's an engaging article)
Excerpt:"During the entirety of the 17th century, there was only one year without a sighting of the omiwatari.

Between the end of World War II and 1988, the ice ridge failed to form 13 times.

Since then, the omiwatari has become rarer still. The crossing finally appeared last year after a four-year absence. "
Excerpt:" Annual air temperatures in Suwa have warmed at a rate of 2.4 degrees Celsius over the past century,
double the national figure, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Between 1950 and 2014, Lake Suwa failed to freeze 17 times. In comparison, between 1443 to 1700,


there were only three instances in which the lake didn’t freeze over completely.


And when it comes to the omiwatari, the absences have grown more common: In the 1990s, it once disappeared for six consecutive years."




https://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...nge-japan-lake/
Attached Image


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$hsi
so far very clean structure in bids v offers, impulsive bid with choppy pullbacks.....trendy
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

looking for flat > up day $xjo up more so spesh if honkers goes green
12.30am aest news whip https://www.forexfactory.com/
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo
promise to stop p!ssing around with this ....
"xjo wedge fights bull symmetry 051219"

note the text in the daily insert:
Attached Image




  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

HTL high to low
BTO buy to open
BTC buy to close
STO sell to open
STC sell to close
LOD low of dayHOD high of day
GMTFO GTFO please sir may i exit
symmetry (a ratio of 1:1 this swing is the same size as last swing in the same direction, tending to be confirmative of/for directional trade)
-------------------------------

$xjo :
one point of note should not be overlooked the Dec 12 sell down is a 1:1 ratio of the downswing we are retracing today - going by my above comment that implies a very bullish idea which tended to be correct most oft than not, a good directional trend signal, hard to fudge trend construct....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$hsi lack of sell probably a good sign of accumulation/consolidation holding the index in a large buy zone
have started BTO positions on that, uber small
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

we are below a basic 33% retrace HTL since the end of month sell (which waited for the thanksgiving cue)
and we saw that rollover december 2nd late arvo so all the hallmarks of large rotation are there and not clear that resumption of the uptrend is printing today despite the bid

....xjo is rarely this active mid session, looks like distribution to me, the switch in sentiment from retail cfd's from extremely bearish to mildly bullish fits the tenet that retail cfd players are largely on the wrong side of the gig

ideally we need to see a bid into $xjo cash close and a bullish signal in the SPA into 4.10pm for the longs to resume the upside
for mine, best trade today from a positional trade is : dont care about and have no need for - any trade - unless the signal is screaming an ah-ha signal
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

like your thinking
alternatively take some off the table when it suits, raise stop to zone around break-even (+/-), let the momentum carry you

when we make new highs i'll have a perfect hindisght call : the end of month window dressing (fees) allowed a fake sell set-up to trap sellers
and flush out weak holders
rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

had to close out at the open, day looks like it's holding the bid, if we're up overnight and no rollover the longs will be best risk
sentiment is fairly even 55% BTO printing for all clients 59% for top clients front month contract cfd
when it's clean bid and no chop like this i tend to think the previous larger trend up has a lot more legs..follow the money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 11:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

tight stop huh

reduce size and allow some heat

keep in mind the large % drop from the high so players are wound up looking for the elusive lotto move and late comers get flushed

lack of liquidity locally can whip more than the day sesh
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

overnight players like to run the boundary of the zones so you may get a decent sell level
if there's good news for couple of aus companies listed on the LSE then that'll lift it too
generally i want to sell the lifts rather than raise risk by riding them
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

a lot of players thinking theyre wearing butchers gloves....
all the overlapping chop with on 25% bounce achieved today (exc yesterday), good signal price is directional down
sellside liquidity dominating

closing above 6626 $xjo and get a bid at tomorrows open might change that perspective but right now buying the dip carries greater risk
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

on a 123 p swing down we've bumped 25% retrace, confirming the downtrend when the bounce is so shallow......the next decent bounce should retrace that % for the whole swing since the sell down of 6894


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 10:30 AM


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Posts: 1,110

when price pops, like today 11.19am, you want to see if the length of the pop is the same as the previous swing
a 1:1 ratio is a continuation signal, a fake lift, very easy to pull on late arrival STO's weak shorts
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

i'm holding and adding to sells
min target is 6545
suggest much lower than that, xjo has a very big channel to retrace within the larger bull cycle
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

not even a taxidermist can lend a hand today
swift impulsive sells like this, daily basis, need to be respected when in position

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

trend is your friend
if that's true, where's the most risk, with the impulsive sell or with the bounce?
look to see how hard and how long it takes for the pause in major direction to resolve, that should give a clear indication of the coming/continuing directional strength
which is down
and here's the double wedge throw over, very rare in any market but big signal when it arrives
see if it makes sense, the structure is there, repeatable pattern

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$BEAR
local etf +2.4% today
v.
$xjo -2.1%

xjo had a reversal, on an repeatable pattern, a diagonal wedge* with a ....bonus throw-over for the technicians
*also referred to as an ending diagonal wedge
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

china data
Attached Image
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 27 2019, 11:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Another year, another record

Geneva, 25 November 2019 - Levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached another new record high, according to the World Meteorological Organization. This continuing long-term trend means that future generations will be confronted with increasingly severe impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, more extreme weather, water stress, sea level rise and disruption to marine and land ecosystems.

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin showed that globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) reached 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017.

The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and just above the average over the last decade. Global levels of CO2 crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million benchmark in 2015.

CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries and in the oceans for even longer.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also surged by higher amounts than during the past decade, according to observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch network which includes stations in the remote Arctic, mountain areas and tropical islands.

Since 1990, there has been a 43% increase in total radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases. CO2 accounts for about 80% of this, according to figures from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration quoted in the WMO Bulletin.

“There is no sign of a slowdown, let alone a decline, in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere despite all the commitments under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,» said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “We need to translate the commitments into action and increase the level of ambition for the sake of the future welfare of the mankind,” he said.

“It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago. Back then, the temperature was 2-3°C warmer, sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now,” said Mr Taalas.
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Emissions Gap

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Emissions represent what goes into the atmosphere. Concentrations represent what remains in the atmosphere after the complex system of interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, cryosphere and the oceans. About a quarter of the total emissions is absorbed by the oceans and another quarter by the biosphere.

Global emissions are not estimated to peak by 2030, let alone by 2020, if current climate policies and ambition levels of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are maintained. Preliminary findings from the Emissions Gap Report 2019 indicate that greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2018, according to an advanced chapter of the Emissions Gap Report released as part of a United in Science synthesis for the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit in September.

The United in Science report, which brought together major partner organizations in the domain of global climate change research, underlined the glaring – and growing – gap between agreed targets to tackle global warming and the actual reality.

"The findings of WMO's Greenhouse Gas Bulletin and UNEP's Emissions Gap Report point us in a clear direction - in this critical period, the world must deliver concrete, stepped-up action on emissions," said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). "We face a stark choice: set in motion the radical transformations we need now, or face the consequences of a planet radically altered by climate change."

A separate and complementary Emissions Gap Report by UN Environment will be released on 26 November. Now in its tenths year, the Emissions Gap report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions; they compare these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the emissions gap.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the Summit had delivered “a boost in momentum, cooperation and ambition. But we have a long way to go.”

This will now be taken forward by the UN Climate Change Conference, which will be held from 2 to15 December in Madrid, Spain, under the presidency of Chile.

Key Findings of the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

The bulletin includes a focus on how isotopes confirm the dominant role of fossil fuel combustion in the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

There are multiple indications that the increase in the atmospheric levels of CO2 are related to fossil fuel combustion. Fossil fuels were formed from plant material millions of years ago and do not contain radiocarbon. Thus, burning it will add to the atmosphere radiocarbon-free CO2, increasing CO2 levels and decreasing its radiocarbon content. And this is exactly what is demonstrated by the measurements.


Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide is the main long-lived greenhouse gas in the atmosphere related to human activities. Its concentration reached new highs in 2018 of 407.8 ppm, or 147% of pre-industrial level in 1750.

The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was above the average growth rate over the last decade. The growth rate of CO2 averaged over three consecutive decades (1985–1995, 1995–2005 and 2005–2015) increased from 1.42 ppm/yr to 1.86 ppm/yr and to 2.06 ppm/yr with the highest annual growth rates observed during El Niño events.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index shows that from 1990 to 2018 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 43%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase

Methane

Methane (CH4) is the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas and contributes about 17% of radiative forcing. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (e.g., wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from human activities like cattle breeding, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning.

Atmospheric methane reached a new high of about 1869 parts per billion (ppb) in 2018 and is now 259% of the pre-industrial level. For CH4, the increase from 2017 to 2018 was higher than both that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average over the last decade.

Nitrous Oxide

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soil, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

Its atmospheric concentration in 2018 was 331.1 parts per billion. This is 123% of pre-industrial levels. The increase from 2017 to 2018 was also higher than that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years.

Nitrous oxide also plays an important role in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer which protects us from the harmful ultraviolet rays of the sun. It accounts for about 6% of radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-relea...et-another-high
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 23 2019, 02:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$spx " Stock Market Commentary 11/22/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has continued to rise, making new all-time intraday or closing highs on six consecutive recent trading days, culminating (so far) with November 19th. This move has not been reflected in some of the technical indicators, however, and so there are some divergences, sell signals, and extremely overbought conditions arising.
For now, though, the $SPX chart is positive. There are higher highs and higher lows, accompanied by strongly advancing trend lines. There is minor support in the 3065-3070 area, with strong support at 3025-3030 (the area of the previous highs).

Equity-only ratios continue to decline, as call buying has remained heavy and steady.


These ratios are at their lowest levels in over a year and are thus very overbought but still bullish.

Market breadth has been our most negative indicator. Both breadth oscillators rolled over to sell signals recently.

So, the above paragraphs have laid out some pretty negative data, from extremely overbought put-call ratios to sell


signals in mBB and breadth. But the one area that is not turning negative is volatility.


$VIX remains at low levels and hasn't even peeked its head up on recent down days. As long as that is the case, it's bullish for stocks.

In summary, short-term bearish positions are in order, but the intermediate-term remains positive as


long as the $SPX and $VIX charts continue to remain in the bullish camp.

charts:


https://www.optionstrategist.com/weekly-cha..._eid=c5d2a13444
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

in the mail from www.thechartist.com
if youre new to trading/investing, commend you take a gander at Nick's work (successful funds manager and top educator, free stuff too)
50 Bite Size Trading Tips and Tricks

1. Don’t try to read into other people’s trading decisions.
2. By all means like a stock, but don’t try to be best friends with it forever. Instead, spend time nurturing positions that are being kind to you.

3. Beware the Beginner's Cycle. The want to be right will cause you to collect courses and books and will only be a costly and frustrating exercise. The secret is elsewhere.

4. Actually, there is no secret. It’s all in the maths.

5. Losses when trading are inevitable, but losses should always be limited.

6. Have a prepared trading plan so you don’t rush into bad decisions. Time spent planning will help you avoid catastrophic losses, riding the emotional roller coaster, and other unnecessary headaches.

7. Get off your high horse. Your ego will eventually cost you dearly.

8. Validate your strategy before you risk your capital.

9. Don’t waste your time on other trader’s successes. The only person you’re competing against is yourself.

10. Ignore any broker that tells you to buy when there is blood in the streets. You can be sure it’s not theirs.

11. Outsource to people who do the stuff they’re better at so you can do the stuff you’re better at.

12. Make haste slowly. Ensure you have a validated strategy that has an edge and ensure you have a full understanding of the journey ahead of you. The markets will always be there. What won’t be there if you’re in too much of a hurry is the capital in your account.

13. Understand positive expectancy. When you see it, you’ll get it.

14. Ask someone you trust if you are unsure.

15. Risk a small amount of capital on each trade.

16. Sentiment will drive the market, or a stock, a lot further than logic ever will.

17. Only fools claim to know the future.

18. Don’t be a dick for a tick. Saving a few cents here and there will only cost you dollars later on.

19. You can’t control the market. Don’t waste your time by watching every trade tick along.

20. Find a strategy that makes sense to you.

21. Be curious and keep a trading diary. Don’t be scared to learn something new.

22. Explore new ideas and opportunities often.

23. Let go of things you can’t change. Concentrate on things you can.

24. There is no point questioning the market.

25. The market will pay you when it’s ready. You just need to be there when it does.

26. Find a strategy you actually enjoy following.

27. Realize that the harder you work, the luckier you will become.

28. Risk not thy whole wad. There is a reason why compounding is the 8th Wonder of the World.

29. However good or bad a situation is now, it will change. Accept that positive expectancy sometimes takes time to show its hand.

30. Realize that being right does not equate to profits.

31. 45% of trades will tend be profitable. 45% will tend be losses. 10% will be breakeven. Your job is to make the winners count.

32. Make mistakes, learn from them, laugh about them, and move along.

33. Successful trading is not a sprint. Buffet didn’t earn his reputation in a single year �" or decade.

34. The only thing you can control is the amount of money you’re willing to lose on each trade.

35. Don’t over think things. Simple works best. Complex will eventually break.

36. Understand why your strategy makes money.

37. If you can’t pull the trigger it’s usually because you don’t trust the strategy you’re using. Stop and re-evaluate.

38. Trends can’t not exist.

39. The biggest hurdle to overcome is between your ears.

40. Don’t fear the market. It can’t actually hurt you. You can hurt you though.

41. The object of gaining a trading education isn’t knowledge; it’s to enable action.

42. Never move a stop backward. You’re mind is screwing with you.

43. Rules you can’t or won’t follow are of no use to you.

44. Your initial reaction to any adverse situation is usually wrong.

45. Risk and volatility are not the same. Volatility can increase returns. Risk can increase losses.

46. Think long term with regard to strategy application. Performance and trade outcomes in the short term are random.

47. The keys to success are consistency, discipline and patience. They cannot be bought.

48. Every stock that goes bankrupt exhibits a sustained downtrend first.

49. Any strategy is only as good as the person using it.

50. Take responsibility for every decision you make.

Good trading!


Nick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

2 of 2
$xjo price needs to close below 6651 to confirm the resistance has held ......not looking likely at this time
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo needs to break thru this 2 x ratio resistance to cull the sell side view
thus far today has been a very clean bid so my sell-up is looking a tad suspectstill worth the effort to hold

STO's while running small longs against the bigger view
#jackbeveryfriggingnimble
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

nearterm, offers have a better look than bids,

the bigger picture has not revealed a burning uptrend, tends to fill a picture of more consolidation if a new uptrend is to kick off
the down arrow=STO with stop just above

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

am holding STO's on $xjo and $dax but very small size, awaiting a bounce to give a larger signal, if the bounces struggle we can look for a larger sell
all the high beta US indexes + the DJTA are major laggards v. the $SPX .....no need to rush but i'd be uber cautious on longs
keep in mind "news fits the trend"
keep an eye on the $BEAR etf, liquidity flowing into the $SPXU (US) and $BEAR funds are a good sign of sellside expansion

liquidity has to be put to work, the question is where?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

def not a bid set-up for mine $xjo
we have initial trend rotation on a "minor" level but given the back ground trade o'seas you'll need a decent pair of butchers gloves to buy this
also bware the false -positive signals in the generic indicia
$hsi cfd closed at 80% bids (buy to open) ......yeah, that's not a good look for bids either !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo buyer beware
may reach for 62% but sudden bids on a sell set-up rarely good for more than a few mins

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

mate, you win the personality stakes biggrin.gif

careful on size, it easy to get a burst against you especially designed for the early movers (weak shorts) to have to buy back what the smart money wants to sell

in $dax (cash) , we may see an outside-down weekly bar if we stay below 13135's thursday/friday





  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

it's a common refrain "youre losing me"

the acceptance of an idea that when given other data points confuses

what this is, is, a pattern....simply put....and i agree that weather, cycles, weather cycles, climate cycles, interglacial, ice ages, solar irradiation, warbling n what-have-yous(e)...the whole thing is not and can not be linear

and i dont know the future .....i only know that patterns once repeating take time to. well. un-repeat, the question is are they repeating in intensity, not rapidity, just intensity

the point of this thread is and has been to post data points that offer validity to the climate activity and put away gut feel

and yes i agree it is easy to post based on bias

which is the reason that the majority of posts carry little commentary other than the original authors and that most the authors have vast study, they are not gurus or personas. most have a multi year singular study in the subjects of geo(earth) sciences or physics

as a reader one must first ascertain if their own bias cherrypicks to the bias they want in exactly the the same way a poster should be aware they are cherrypicking to fit their (my) own bias

in any conversation it is as much an onus on the speaker to know the person listening has understood them as much as it is the onus of the listener to hear correctly

the trick is to know how to listen (and conversely) to know how to speak

todate, the more concise the data, provided by studied authors, the more i am inclined to think the trends and patterns eventing carry significant consequence

and that is emotive as i'll get on the subject

the point of this thread is at least to go, in some small way, to answering questions that most people (like me) do not know the right questions to ask in the first instance

i get your frustration

posting in the effort to ensure there is some light on what is useable or workable

we have integrity and honesty as hallmarks of life because they are workable not because they are righteous

gossip and guru opinions are not workable regardless of which side of the debate we are on

in that regard if climate and weather are not linear then we can agree they are (at least) interconnected albeit in different scales of time and impact
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#patterns ...few of my fave things ...except these
https://www.news.com.au/national/sydney-smo...4cb5c8b4e485632
" More than a dozen temperature records have been broken across South Australia today.

The state sweltered through a day of catastrophic bushfire danger, with blazes burning at emergency levels.

The Bureau of Meteorology said multiple areas broke their maximum November temperature records, including:

  • Hindmarsh Island 40.7C
  • Nullarbor 46.6C
  • Murray Bridge Airport 44.0C
  • Kingscote Airport 39.1C
  • Stenhouse Bay 40.1C
  • Robe Airfield 38.0C
  • Parafield 44.3C
  • Keith 44.3C
  • Padthaway South 39.9C
  • Clare 40.8C
  • Strathalbyn 43.1C
  • Lameroo 44.0C
  • Naracoorte 40.2C
  • Parndana 38.1C
  • Nuriootpa 42.1C
Attached Image

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1196964481768644608

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

didnt even get tto post that last one before $dax banged thru 13110's !!
momo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

i think it prudent if youre looking for positional trade to await the boundary to be broken, and then take the signal, i mean, all this choppy sludge uphill is clear in the chart but it doesnt give a clean enrty/exit signal, there's always a lag for me, a confirming signal offers less getting chopped out than if the signal is taken too early, again, that's from a positional trade perspective
the "throw-over" is a clean call but it too required a confirmation signal which we havent seen in the cash...yet
am also STO $dax but need to see 13110's taken out to call a larger trend swing there .....it's easy to mix the idea of buyers holding back versus sellers dominating when there's not enough data (time) to give the nod
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo $cash

this is a probable look, up in 3's + a throw-over qualifies under the EW orthodox count for mine
may need another upswing, price has to close below the lower boundary to confirm a larger pattern rotation,

the bid/offer boundaries are very close giving the smallest risk length

am currently with the offer overnight small size
the daily chart asks the question if the Australian equities requires a sizeable reset in value terms (meaning we need to retrace a decent % to attract new liquidity, to establish a level that is seen as decent bargain value for capital risk + yield

if the wedge plays out the lower daily high would = a truncated pattern (failed higher high) which would fit well with a wedge rotation

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

4 of 4
#risk #portfolio #bond #liquidity

follow-up to previous post on this as a lens of risk

$spx v CCC
as with the $rut and $sml high beta indexes the speccy end of town has decided the CCC rated bonds are just too much risk
keep in mind this "high yield corp bonds at the speccie end of town, fast money jockies

sure, it's naff pov for timing but for bias, it's a beaut !!
https://us.spindices.com/indices/fixed-inco...-bond-ccc-index
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#idea

$xjo
another lens to view the xao/xjo is an etf
$BEAR
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo the constant recent (few weeks in the tri shape) distribution suggests the breadth has been weak relative to recent incline making the local indexes prone to sells with o'seas indexes
retail buying the opens and pros selling the session
breadth in US indexes has been thin, the high betas are still way below their altime highs as the $spx charged uphill, it sets up a "shoulda seen that"

better to at least be tight with size than naive about price lengths
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

HSI seems getting up again atm.
the cfd swing high at 27940 is the level to beat to confirm a longerterm low has printed for mine, altho closing above 27735 on an impsulsive leg would satisfy
i think we can distrust moves in both directions still as the cfd positioning is simply too early, eager movers BTO are wrong for an index that's been under constant pressure ....at least the risk levels are clearly defined
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

and another kick up in the arvo Asian session
pattern is very clean since yesterdays take-off ....bids have a very good look

silver confirms gold move, little lag and only a few hours adrift
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Sustainable Business
November 19, 2019 / 1:01 PM / Updated an hour ago
Neoen to expand world's largest lithium ion battery in Australia
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hornsdal..._source=twitter
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1196521211410305024
Attached Image


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 12:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

both $xauusd and $silver caught decent rotation bids (clean structure), likely we're headed to at least halfway back up the current downchannels

..or better

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

The oldest & thickest #Arctic sea ice is disappearing 2X as fast as ice in the rest of the Arctic Ocean according to new research in
@theAGU's GRL.


Watch the old ice disappear via a visualization that uses NSIDC DAAC data

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/11/wat...lowly-disappear


" Researchers have identified what they’re calling the “last ice area,” a 2000-kilometer stretch of ocean northwest of Greenland where the Arctic’s summertime sea ice might survive for a few more decades.

As reported in Geophysical Research Letters and depicted above, sea ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean has declined, on average, by more than one-third from 1984 through 2018. Only in two portions of the last ice area—one patch immediately north of Greenland, and another swath centered more than 1300 kilometers to the west along Canada’s northernmost islands—does near-total sea-ice coverage persist from year to year, the researchers say.

Unlike the rest of the Arctic Ocean, ice thicknesses in these two regions range up to a maximum of 4 meters or so. But the team’s new analysis also reveals that ice loss there is occurring at twice the rate it is elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean. These two areas of persistent (for now) sea ice may be the final northern realms where wildlife largely dependent on sea ice for survival, such as polar bears, walrus, and narwhals, can hold out in a warming world, the scientists say. "

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...29/2019GL083722

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

smooth move above the 2buk level, no blazing signals, this move will have a lot of attention about the possibility of a longer term low
  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

honkers still carries hallmarks of lower lows, the jumps are early bids, retail still too keen for a downswing suggesting still too early for BTO's
beware the pop in $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 10:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

another (Brit) Lewis chrissy add

https://twitter.com/i/status/1194884227004809216

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 07:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Tom
Modeled reconstruction of October #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901
- comparison between PIOMAS-20C and PIOMAS data sets
now updated through October 2019



Attached Image



" The y-axis limit is intentionally selected for comparison with our paper using

a volume threshold of 1000 km³ for "ice-free" conditions in future projections"
some great insight here:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11...CLI-D-17-0436.1

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

ah, got it
" Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (BABA - Get Report) is looking to kick off a Hong Kong share offering to raise as much as





$15 billion later this month, despite ongoing protests in the China-controlled city-state that have been marked by months of protests.

The U.S.-listed online marketplace known as the "Amazon of China" is expected to seek approval from Hong Kong's listing committee as early as next Thursday. The listing process and book-build would then proceed during the week of Nov. 25, according to Reuters.

Alibaba had been working on an August listing in Hong Kong but put the effort on hold amid anti-government protests and general economic uncertainty in the region.

However, expectations have been that it would eventually move forward, as Alibaba views the Hong Kong deal as a way to diversify its access to capital markets, according to analysts.

If it proceeds, the transaction would be the world's largest cross-border secondary listing. Alibaba currently holds the record for the biggest initial public offering for its $25 billion float in New York in 2014.
https://www.thestreet.com/video/alibaba-is-...unrest-15160009

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#bitcoin


https://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Events/Fre...1112sub%22catch


free actually means free


#fillyerboots


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

what a beast
Alibaba has been approved for a secondary listing in Hong Kong and aims to raise up to US$15 billion.
(Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.)

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3037469/stocks-blog-alibaba-approved-list-hong-kong-selling-us15-billion
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

try this

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech...sn-t-need-money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

lol, thanks, even Pat Boone has renditioned

still one of my fave top bathroom hits

ahem
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#that'sinteresting #cycle #idea

since the last significant swing high there has been a high-to-low-to-high symmetry in time
the bounce has thus far been even less than grinding and xauusd has not fared much better at 30% bounce
if we were in a trend rotation i think we'd see a better kick, so price is hinting by its construction that we're in a relief bounce
tell me quando you see ?
Attached Image






(true story, Tom Jones sang "tell me quando quando quaaaandoah" because quando means "what" in English so...
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

holding the bod $xjo
honkers still on its way to the lower value zone
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

COMMODITIES
NOVEMBER 13, 2019 / 5:04 PM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Lithium producers hit by first big downturn of electric vehicle era

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lithium-..._source=twitter
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

https://youtu.be/WsSlPBf43AI
retails doesnt have to be on the wrong side but when it opens at 84% bid ......$hsi
you can take the sucker out of the market .....but ya just cant take the sucker out of the market....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 12:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$hsi cfd opened pre-cash with 84% buy to open by top holders and 69% buy to open by all-clients
small hint long is wrong, snapped the symmetry, we're going lower to retest 25300 zone best guess,
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Mick
both silver gold caught bids at their lows this morning, probably a grind uphill for a few days before the next tough questions gets asked
1472 appears near term target for xauusd, 17.27's silver front month contract (cfd)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xjo losing it's structure, lifting in 3's failing to hold onto bids struggling with 6780 .....still in distribution mode, a limp biscuit!
wide swings in the overnight cash implied cfd (front month contract), lots of scouting stops both directions
keep your eye on the BEAR (BETASHARES AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES BEAR HEDGE FUND) to see if you can see a bully signal there



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$dax $spx (and rest of US indexes) look like melt-up mode
but high beta $sml still lags

i have an overhead resistance 3108 for $spx

PM's are selling off in convincing impulsive trend so far
have to respect the system that gets me out of trub, otherwise, follow the money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#idea
$HSI
bullish interpretation
#cash

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

oh, you mean:
"yes, mister customer, we'll fix it soon, it was (cough) just bad data...."
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

cross check with this site, Mick
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 10 2019, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

more data and horror fodder for you, @tombeet
the bulk of posts are extracts from scientists or peer review studies, so they can tend to be reductionist and require some context, although, in toto,they all carry similar messages or insights


https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
Zack Labe is worth following for ice/heat maps


Attached Image


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/science/new...l-warming-study

Red Deer are Evolving Within Decades to Adapt to Global Warming: Study

The Weather Channel IndiaVerified account @weatherindia November 7, 2019

Red deer on the Isle of Rum in Scotland
are displaying one of the first evidences of wild animals evolving by altering their birthing patterns in order to adapt to global warming. And this evolution is happening in decades, not centuries! " In the new research published this week, a team of scientists, led by Dr Timothée Bonnet of the Australian National University, has “documented evolution in action” using field records and collecting genetic data on rum deer over a 45-year period, dating back to 1972. "
===========
" Red deer on the Isle of Rum in Scotland are displaying one of the first evidences of wild animals evolving by altering their birthing patterns in order to adapt to global warming. And this evolution is happening in decades, not centuries!

Charles Darwin believed that evolution is a slow and gradual process. And until 1972, when Stephen Jay Gould proposed the theory of Punctuated Equilibrium, this was true for the scientific community. As per Jay’s theory, species stayed structurally similar for millions of years, followed by rapid bursts of change that result in a new species. However, both the models of evolution showed that it takes hundreds and thousands of years for organisms to develop different characteristics.

However, the shift in the red deer’s birthing pattern is one of the very rare instances of evolution occurring in nature over such a short period of time�"that too because of anthropocentric warming acting as the environmental trigger. "

" The shift in birth timings is down to the effects of warmer temperatures on the deer’s behaviour and physiology. Now, researchers hope that this new adaptation may very well help the red deer population thrive as the climate continues to warm. "

Attached Image




" Previous studies have shown that since the 1980s, red deer repeatedly began giving birth to their young ones earlier than normal. Data shows this date has been shifting backwards at a rate of about three days per decade.

In the new research published this week, a team of scientists, led by Dr Timothée Bonnet of the Australian National University, has “documented evolution in action” using field records and collecting genetic data on rum deer over a 45-year period, dating back to 1972.

In this study, the researchers observed that the deer that give birth earlier in the year experience more reproductive success. Female red deer, called hinds, are known to give birth to a single calf each year. However, those that give birth earlier in the year produce more calves over their lifetime compared to the hinds that give birth during the latter stages of the year.

Subsequently, as the deer that give birth early have multiplied faster, the gene that causes birth earlier has become much more common among the rum deer population over the past few decades�"in line with the natural selection process from Charles Darwin’s Theory of Evolution. "


The study is published in the journal PLOS Biology.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

a follow-up Q&A for the post this post is replying to
Q
@matsfreedom
2 weeks ago
" Since CO2 is the issue, what percentage is optimal? How little is too little? How much is too much? Is 0.04% the ideal amount for life on Earth? Without this understanding, the arguments regarding its presence in the atmosphere are incomplete, if not utterly pointless. Perhaps more is better. Perhaps a lot more is better. Perhaps less is disastrous. So, how much is just right? In addition, the current narrative is that we're all going to be dead or under water in 12 years, so why isn't the West fighting China and India with bombs and missiles to force them to comply with net zero emissions guidelines? How much of our atmosphere will be polluted with CO2, causing world wide, mass extinctions? If it's going to kill all of us, certainly the "scientific community" "
A
potholer54 2 weeks ago " @matsfreedom wrote: "Since CO2 is the issue, what percentage is optimal?" Nature doesn't care, it is whatever it is, whether the Earth is frozen over or in a hothouse. The issue is what matters for the global economy. Our civilization and our modern economy grew out of the temperature and sea level and ice quantity we have. Radically changing that will mean a hugely expensive change of economic structure. "
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

and next flying climate airways we have the US Federal Reserve...if this is fanaticism theyre going all in.....

EnvironmentNovember 9, 2019 / 3:52 AM / Updated 6 hours ago<h1 class="ArticleHeader_headline">Fed sees climate change shaping economy, policy</h1>
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank signaled on Friday it may be getting ready to join international peers in incorporating climate change risk into its assessments of financial stability, and may even take it into account when setting monetary policy.

“To fulfill our core responsibilities, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to study the implications of climate change for the economy and the financial system and to adapt our work accordingly,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in remarks released at the start of the Fed’s first-ever conference on climate change and economics.

The Fed, she said, will need to look at how to keep banks and the financial system resilient amid risks from extreme weather, higher temperatures, rising sea levels and other effects of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

And increasingly, she said, “it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability.”

Brainard’s comments mark a shift for the Fed, which lags other major central banks that have made climate change an explicit part of their financial stability remits. Her talk, the first she’s given in her five-year tenure at the Fed that even mentions the subject, suggests she and her colleagues are taking the risks and costs of global warming seriously.

The U.S. central bank’s attention to global warming comes even as President Donald Trump’s administration denies it exists. Trump on Monday notified the United Nations that the United States will in 12 months leave the Paris Climate Accord, under which 195 nations agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a bid to prevent catastrophic planetary warming.

Scientists are in broad agreement that carbon dioxide from cars, power plants and other human sources are behind the climate change that’s already making powerful hurricanes, severe drought, and other weather extremes more frequent.






RISING RISKS, SLOWING ECONOMIES
The San Francisco Fed’s conference, so oversubscribed that a webcast has been created to meet demand, gave policymakers a crash course in research that could change how the Fed forecasts economic growth, regulates banks, and even sets interest rates.

Papers presented at the conference showed how climate change has crimped growth and presented ideas on how policy, including monetary policy, can be used to mitigate harm.

University of Southern California professor Hashem Pesaran showed that rising average temperatures and volatile precipitation - both effects of climate change - have already slowed U.S. economic output in recent decades.

Meeting Paris Accord goals, the paper found, could limit losses to per capita U.S. GDP from planetary warming over the next 80 years to 3% or less, versus 14% if goals are not met.

Swedish central bank economist Conny Olovsson used an economic model to show losses to economic growth from imposing a carbon tax - an objection often raised by politicians and industry - would be dwarfed by the economic losses projected if carbon dioxide remains largely untaxed and global warming continues unchecked.

In a third paper, Nicholas Muller, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, outlined how the Fed might factor environmental circumstances into monetary policy by, for example, keeping rates lower when pollution levels were increasing, to encourage consumption before they got worse, and higher when pollution was declining, to depress spending until the environment improved.





ed policymakers appeared receptive to the ideas.

“Climate change is an issue we can’t afford to ignore,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at the start of the conference, a day that also marked the one-year anniversary of a fire 150 miles north of San Francisco that killed 85 people and destroyed 14,000 homes, a conflagration blamed in part on climate change. “This is not a hypothetical risk of the future...the risks are here, we have to deal with them.”

Reporting by Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Additional reporting by Jonnelle Marte in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-..._source=twitter


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

smash n grab a sell full
weekly bars:
Attached Image


in the above view, do we have an analogue for mid 2017 sell with a bid "hook" ?of course there's no way to know that but it does warn that even tho we have a clean trend construct south there's enough bids to cause a rip


below view, price respects prior swing symmetry, confirms trend construct.......so far
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$spx $sml $rut $nya $nyad $spxadp $ndx

Dow Theory: The DJ Transportation Average made its closing high back on September 14, 2018 at 11,750.84. Yesterday it broke out after 9 months of consolidation. This is very encouraging. A close above this peak will reconfirm a primary bull market a la Dow Theory.
Ralph Acampora CMT
@Ralph_Acampora
·
21h
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Mick

more discounted stocks to come monday

very orderly decline, trend construct $xauusd

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 04:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

https://youtu.be/CcmCBetoR18
a decent enough video to give an insight on how, at least, that non-scientific examples are but rebuttles alone and not much more
..not to put too finer point on "it"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

yeah, expected better momo that we're currently seeing even tho we've had clean heels on many sessions
did a larger study this arvo for this as it's been buggin me most of this week $HSI :
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

kiwis, doing it for themselves, slice of heaven n they wanna keep it that way

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1192521833490214917
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 12:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

getting there, wherever that is
XGD0.0000.0006,535.400-372.100 -5.40%
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

huh ?

XGD

0.000

0.000

6,659.600

-247.900

-3.60%

huh.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

diiing !
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

amp on the bid, keeping a clean impulsive construction...needs to close above 1.99/2.00 to get buyer conviction


refer this post:
https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...st&p=901948
  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xauusd looks like it wants another slalom run, bids have been lacking, other recent downswings were at least active enough to display intent to buy the dip, this time it's very quiet
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 12:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$xauusd trip downhill looks similar to recent trips downhill, cfd players 73% long at the low, they think rinse repeat, i think more downside to come once this move to correct yesterday completes
a decent shake-up
good call on the $xgd components .... - 2.6% so far and prob not enough to drag in the money that'll swing it north
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

suggest allowing decent width for a decent swing on honkers, still room for a retest of the low zone
meanwhile, local xjo is currently having amber poured on it so it doesnt have to move at all.......SFJ excl.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

adding to sells $XAUUSD this arvo, bid construct has fallen to bits...so now it's how much are the BTO have their STC set at 1500 as is normal for weakhands
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 03:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Reuters‏Verified account @Reuters 2h2 hours ago

President Trump said he hadn’t heard reports that smugglers were cutting through the U.S.-Mexico border wall. ‘One of the reasons we did it the way we did it, it's very easily fixed. You put the chunk back in,’ he said.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#China
Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

#RBA $xjo
kept rates on hold.......oh the yelling n screaming n....... yawning....lots of yawning ......not so much yelling or screaming
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 11:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

Mick

seems like every session has been a do-or-die for either side and the STO's (sell to open) have been a large % of all open positions at 45% (55% Buy To Open)

typically the XAUUSD carries a 60% long bias in cfd's

I'm currently STO stop at 1519's

the sell-side has more to prove than the bidside when this stop pops at which point the minimum move is at least an equal high around 1556's

my main sell reasoning are all technical and currently tenuous as most of the technical bias have already eroded by persistant bid pressure but the construct is a mess

clear as mud ........as is this post
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 07:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

$spx overnight implied cash cfd are 98% sell to open
....the quants are back....in retail....lol
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 02:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

another glaring distribution day $xjo ....still highs to come next cupla weeks? likely

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,110

whether scaled or not the margin of risk on the $hsi overnight is considerably less upwards thru 27400's
it's a hint not to have a trailing stop too close, still some bot opportunities to test the strength of bids
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 3 2019, 11:56 AM


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https://twitter.com/i/moments/1190622427052695552
uk bans fracking #gas
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 05:04 PM


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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-macquari..._source=twitter


November 1, 2019 / 8:59 AM / Updated an hour ago
Australia's Macquarie posts record first-half on trading, asset management gains
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 11:36 AM


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xjo volatility made for a good morning, in distribution mode, likely much higher on a weekly basis but i wouldnt take a hailmary bet on this either way
compression in hsi another good sign of step upwards
as i type spx overtnight top clients cfd pos' are 95% sell to open, all clients are 65% STO, dax 73% tops clients STO and all clients 77% STO
.......someone gettin squeezed

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 11:31 AM


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AMP attempting to break out of the channel + break out above the last swing high at 1.90
it would need to show some momentum to attract more than short covering liquidity

  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 12:26 PM


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no window dressing into end of month .....we have some ways to get lower $xjo
some divergences in the CCC junk bond relative to the S&P500
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 06:20 PM


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no particular reason:

The Motley Fool Australia‏Verified account @TheMotleyFoolAu Sep 22 Did you know billionaire Warren Buffett made 99% of his current wealth after his 50th birthday?

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 02:42 PM


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Walter Murphy's post suggests no deterioration of internal markers, more of the same expected with a cupla headfakes
unusually large % of retail traders are short most markets.....all trying to pick a top....more squeezing
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 10:46 PM


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Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
S&P 500: 1) index at a record, 2) breadth at a record, 3) OBV at a record
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:57 PM


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in the instance of actual systemic failure the correct question is :

got a bag of salt .....several bags of salt ?
lol
if you have gold the only person buying from you is someone with a bag of.....lemme guess......gold ?
here i'll give you a bar of gold for one of your bars of gold, what for, what are we gunna do with it? .....ask the guy with the salt, he's in most demand
rolleyes.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 28 2019, 11:27 AM


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ending diag wedge thingy in the $spx (all hours cash implied cfd)
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 25 2019, 12:18 AM


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$xauusd had a pretty good run at the overhead channel

...after several hours of stagnant price action a group came in to bid it up squeez STO's and cause a run

breaking thru would be very bullish

printing a hyperbolic type move today supported by similar swing in silver, $dxy appears to have found a swing low too creating headwind

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 01:17 PM


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signs we're still some ways from a major top: retailers hitting new highs
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 11:54 AM


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on the bid $hsi
PMI #'s tonight from euro zone tonight wont affect Asia but likely give metals a stir
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 10:50 AM


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trend days...driving a parked bus.....wet paint in a fist fight.....
sad.gif
$xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 07:37 PM


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thanks
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 05:44 PM


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if people can only get the simple concept of two streams of liquidity
bid or buy to open
sell or sell to open
a healthy market is increased by both forms of liquidity travelling thru it
players who are short are forced to cover by bids overwhelming the offer, this forces more liquidity thru the auction
the bottom line is there must be competing liquidity flows
the bids compete to get available supply forcing price up
the offer competes to get available short-sale supply forcing price down
there is no morality to this effort
it is simply supply and demand
the biggest issue is the understanding of this effort, this is a businesslong-only traders and investors have been slowly bled into the knowledge of the two different streams of liquidity
so that's the other issue of a lack of knowledge
most investors forget the work required to be fully informed on buying stocks (etc) but not of how to best utilise the selling of stocks (etc)and while it can be argued that sell-to-open provides no benefit to society (like securitised derivatives)one cannot hide behind naivety of the whole exercise which is to sell something or buy something to make money
...if its ok to buy something (bigger fool theory) to sell onwards to someone else and make moneythen selling something to someone to buy back from someone else and make money, surely, these two things are equal in their practise ?
in the very early days of the Bourse, trading was considered like jazz music was considered, like the anti-horse motor vehicle was considered
people fill in the blanks of ignorance with subjective ethics that have nothing to do with the operation of buying and selling
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 02:13 PM


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it's very good news to fit the retracement, honkers should go like a rocket on a higher high 26850's
locally a big fat yawn on the news, selling dried up super quick just after 11am $xjo
markets still hold bullish
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 12:50 PM


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scratch that trade !
$hsi
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 12:33 PM


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buy invitation on honkers low post carrie lam replacement annoc
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 12:53 PM


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review, weekly basis
cyclical pump-it/sell-it within a channel, breaking that cycle and breaking the channel a + for the stock, which has gone "quiet" in the public domain of angsty chat
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  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 10:27 AM


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are we getting some blow-off type moves as US $spx heads into ratio resistance 3030-3035's ...getting thru there would be uber

bullish if the high betas such as $sml back it up and $xbd shows some upward trend, otherwise,

asking who's doing all that selling to the latecomers ?
Asian zone bid is coming from a low, North American/Euro bid is coming from a high

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 10:00 AM


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nipper (looks up thesaurus, it says look up dictionary: "nipper" to be an anti-hero, to post against the consensus, to go against the herd)
true story
retail cfd's moved from 66% Buy To Open pre dump this morning to 73% BTO currently, less fear more "bargains"
the "cheaper" it gets the more retail is persuaded to go all in bidside
both metals back well within their initial downchannels, heading for the middle ground as the the channels slope down
the impulsive sells are being ignored by retail and probably a few money managers too
at this point the auction can still considered balanced from a levels-only perspective, for mine the STO appears the least risk

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 09:48 AM


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churn higher, $xjo
yep
riding the back of the honkers horse
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 01:43 PM


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eb
#ideas #bond #junk #CCC #asapercentage #asaratio

am watching junk bonds for divergence, while both major equity groups and junk bonds remain in an incline it it clear on a % basis theyre no longer in sync
the breadth on NYSE remains healthy enough but the difference between junk bonds and equities is flat as a ratio
https://us.spindices.com/indices/fixed-inco...-bond-ccc-index

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 12:56 PM


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trade ideas
the trending thing is not happening for either BTO's or STO's
friday looked like it held a sell but immediately recovered but that recovery had no follow-thru, but, clearly, there was intent to accumulatethe question is now what signals are there that there is enough liquidity to flip from sideways sell to break-out bid

we appear to be on a large chop fest which is good when adjusted-to, within what is a standard bullflag, falling thru the "initial" channel or breaking above the channel will probably bring some momo but i think more likely downside than up, given how hard it is to attract new money to all the money that is already in the BTO game it would require the extreme hedgers short to reverse, what's more likely is a chop thru the roof of the channel to retap and make a secondary high giving major hedgers to get set again and convince the BTO crowd an "incontrovertible" trend (this has already been declared recently by an in-house guru)

....cough

if we revisit the simple ABC where C only just over-extended the 1:1 ratio of A (100% same-length price swing) then we have two larger ideas that favour the BTO's
what does favour the STO's is the extreme positions in the COT which is still being pared back, the more it's pared back the more this favours the BTO's
if we look back as an analogue we can see other occasions when the orthodox idea of a simple ABC pullback appears bullish but simply falls to bits and on those occasions the COT has not had such an extreme positioning of hedgers who are in STO's and managers who are in BTO's, this implies, from my perspective, either we are in for many more weeks of this sideways to down chop, which is fine now i've moved to a open-it/close-it mindset, or, we are about to get a major sell signal, the strong bounce high is in, the sell trend from sept 2011 is back underway
there is no point in putting up a chart that everyone already sees, the game currently is beyond what everyone sees on a multi hour or multi day basis as is the way with a chop trade


"incontrovertible" or not there is no set-forget signal for trend that is absolute, we need a continuation signal for that, small size to get the whips without unnecessary risk is the way to go for now
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 05:51 PM


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while avoiding "adjusting" my open positions i thought i'd doodle some posts on ....oh, nuthin spesh
....except
never do i recall, thru 58 years, of banks saying "hey, we'll pay YOU to borrow money from US !!"
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 04:58 PM


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good prob $spx will take another bite at 2900's before re-heading to resistance....starting to get congested
honkers still showing clean set of heals so far

xauusd bids struggling lots of fake lifts being sold and silver rolling over within similar large channel
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 01:00 PM


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didnt swing much ...lol....needed a defibrillator !!



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 10:33 AM


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#swings
#resistancebetter as a tradable instrument than an investment instrument..until

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  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 09:41 AM


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#China #gdp at 1pm
expect some decent volatility on $xjo + $hsi
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 07:27 PM


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$xauusd is clearly stair-stepping lower
techno traders will see several nestled head n shoulder patterns levels failing to remount prior highs = trending
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:44 PM


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$xjo
early sellers, way too early sellers have been 85%-90% short most of todays session
a new batch of learner drivers getting their collective crown jewels reshaped

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 01:26 PM


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https://twitter.com/ZonePhysics/status/1183348191204388864

see above video for below explanation

YannC‏ @YannCPhoto Oct 13 darker colours absorb all or a part of the light (including infra red), heating up the balloon's surface where the sunlight is concentrated, causing its rupture white colour reflects (and scatters) most of the light (incl. IR) > no heating up > no rupture.

8 replies 36 retweets 449 likes
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 14 2019, 12:04 AM


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news fits the trend
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 03:03 PM


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yep, the WW mostly best fit the usual ABCDE fourth wave construct when it's a broadening wedge (megaphone thingy)
the question is what is the most reliable length once the move is confirmed, there does not appear to be an agreed orthodox price length as a multiple
typically in a triangle, prior to a 5th, the E will travel to 38.2 or 61.8 of C but in a broadening wedge there has never been enough sample size to back test
(not for indexes of this size) and the WW set-up does not guarantee price will travel to the lower down-line, so the 4th of one lessor degree trend appears best target
if price makes new impulsive highs we can probably discount the broadening concept ...at least now we have some boundaries to work with for larger swing


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 11:17 AM


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$XBD #equities #indexes

2 charts

broker dealers have been in get-out mode since ist quarter 2018
$SML is the scout, $SPX is the general ....more signs the current rolling top formation is setting up for a swing south as the US elections near
Attached Image


i am working on this theory as it's a repeatable pattern - forming

"sells below here" critical level likely to confirm the pattern
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 08:54 AM


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gold has had a longterm high printed ?
what is golds " Tall Building Index "
try this: This gold card really is a gold card
This hallmarked payment card made of 18-carat gold has been unveiled by the Royal Mint.

However, to acquire one, you'll need £18,750 ($23,547 US).
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1182702648451055622
Attached Image



the gold toilet seat (recently stolen) obviously not enough.......
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:49 PM


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that's an evil knievel look-at-me move by honkz
stunning 600+ sesh not inc the overnights
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:03 PM


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some decent summaries in this, nipper :
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1182354080594685952
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 01:29 PM


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https://twitter.com/i/status/1182264515078938624
.and we're in .....HSI breaks thru all the ratio resistances on a very strong momo impulsive bid
it would have to fall back thru 25600's given the recent accumulation it's ahrd to see it go and retest the low

...lifting off from the congestion vpoc is a very good sign the low swing is complete daily/weekly basis
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 12:35 PM


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...and
$hsi that 26130 level is the risk level for STO's

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 12:21 PM


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eb
$hsi
breaking the auction swings upside would be a good sign the slump is over and there are no more bargains or even less supply to get
todays and last widest upswing both have the best accumulation signals, getting thru that 26130 level on impulsive bid would be an invite to hold overnights
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 11:08 AM


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$xauusd
lacking in momentum but "respecting" the basic initial channel boundaries,

price tried to impel on the fractional deflationary m/m #'s then sold on the hype

Attached Image


USD
CPI m/m
actual 0.0% forecast 0.1% previous 0.1%


USD
Core CPI m/m
actual 0.1% forecast 0.2% previous 0.3%
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 04:46 PM


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by breaking the overhead down-channel roof pricing would signal bids have won
by passing thru midline confidence of price moving to the lower channel line raises the sellside liquidity
both metals have symmetric channels typical of trend but the whipsaws will disguise the structure, nice volatility!!

arrows=STO
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 02:49 PM


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if venus have clear proof of a confidentiality agreement,

that cannot be misconstrued, then them waiting for spectrum to find decent size resource is extremely shrewd
if they do not have a concise unequivocal agreement that pre-existed the whole thing is going to get very messy and costly for s/h's

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/...clpcz1ltjrf.pdf
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 01:50 PM


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the point of observing bid chase is you know size funds are being committed, but, no one wants to go to price discovery when they dont have to
a decent break out tells us the supply is thinning out and size has to chase...right now the only good news is that the size committed needs to be protected so the downside is limited but a 1k downside is still a decent punch in the mouth if long

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 01:48 PM


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i'm only interested in buying the low swings and scaling out on strength ......until we see a decent follow-thru i think there's plenty of price lengths on both sides
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 11:41 AM


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$hsi
nice aggressive bid chase......good signs of accumulation and compression
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 10:47 AM


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yeah, the positioning of retail is a tell currently and it's the wrong way for an uptrend after such a severe sell and literal blood in the streets
majority of cfd "combined" retail are printing 63% BTO (long) so only 37% are sell to open ......really, only 37% !!
the top holders are 54% BTO so that's pretty balanced albeit a small group of cfd traders
so i dont think the low i am looking for is anywhere near in, likely the puke i was looking for wont arrive either
i think there is a strong probability the major US indexes are playing out a very large rotation and we need to see them (at least the $spx)
retest the highs and fail again, at which point, some recognition of the deterioration of the underlying numbers wont be disputed and
we'll get some pretty fast declinesright now i suspect most auctions are allowing smart money to exit longs and mount up shorts so that means churns n burns for the overly eager early movers

both seller and buyer beware
self talk says keep sizes small, wait for trend to get established
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 09:01 PM


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back into the upper half of the initial downchannel

in the larger picture we're still printing lower lows and lower lows

breaking the top of the channel would completely alter the outlook, todate most run-ups have been opportunities to sell-into

Attached Image



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 08:28 PM


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hello

my name is jim rickards

i want you to tell me how long this piece of string is

for any doubters this string is real

we know string is real because most of have used some before, it's an everyday thing, so it's validity cannot be questioned

the only thing that can be questioned is - how long is a piece of string

is it soon

is it eventually

is it pending

is it massive

is it huge

is it long in the making

is it going to hold everything together something something when armageddon

just how long is a piece of string
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 08:16 PM


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$hsi

with $dax leading a smash down we're on the way to strong lower low and what should be a final low for honkers


https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-vi...-blinks-faster/


Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 02:54 PM


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price rallied well today, unlike recent buy-up that were sold into todays run has held up well on added volume
closing at or near the HOD would be a top sign the test of the auction conviction is complete
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 02:46 PM


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maybe one more whip to come south to make a solid base
....sizing to suit
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 09:56 AM


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when are random lines on a chart of any use .....when theyre backtested
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 09:55 AM


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yep, not a good plan to tackle the uber bull
in a vice n squeezed blink.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 7 2019, 10:59 AM


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eb
placed sells on todays high 6555 zone $xjo
expecting a slow slump

the rally on fridays nfp's looked good but i suspect an organised effort to lift price, marked up not bought up ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 04:43 PM


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honkers cfd hit 25565's after being kicked out have re-entered mostly around 25600 will allow some room for a retest

top clients were 81% STO and 'all clients' at 66% STO as the low hit ...super bearish biases compared last week
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 02:57 PM


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edit to the note in the below chart that says "keeping mind the current..." this insert is incorrect

the current news induced spike upwards is from a low, at the base of the new initial downchannel, at that low we can see (in prev charts below) that we are in a bounce from a simple large downwards ABC (of which C = A at 100% symmetry, which is a bullish signal, typical of an interruption to the upwards trend)
the problem i see with this bullish technicality, to hitch a bullish horse on, is several fold
first: the pullback saw no genuine shift in the % of retail bullssecond: all the lifts (except this mornings so far) have been sold-intothird: there has been no endogenous trendfourth: only news spike have chased the offerfifth all price action upwards is overlapping at several context/relative sized swingssixth (and my fave) the COT shows a historic extreme in the manager and retail wanting to get while hedgers are extremes opposing point of view
price getting back below 1503's (88.6% retrace of this mornings ISM non-manu spike), in the front month cfd xauusd contract, would be a big sell signal and currently failure for the Asian session to follow-thru does not bode well for the bid side





  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 02:44 PM


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Attached Image


did $xauusd make a failed lower high ?

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 12:42 PM


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so the next question is always active and requires an answer: does the futures overnight impact the completion of a swing?
given the stagged open/close (SPA) of xao/xjo, the answer is probably yes, players causing price extremes are doing it to get supply or rid of supply
this is the very thing i think that leads to "failed" highs n lows
if price can develop into an impulsive leg then the chop action can be ignored if the intent in the auction is clear
this a context of intent to drive price in extreme direction then letting the cash market work itself out, let the doubt in either direction work in favour of the players already in position
Attached Image




  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 11:43 AM


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chop, bias down $xjo
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 11:15 AM


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$xjo
waiting for honkers to open, sideways chop after yesterdays oversell, this sideways chop is messy typical of an interruption to the previous impulsive moveand given that it's friday, on the back of a heavy outlook, local pros have no need to chase anything, unless $hsi shows a clean set of heels it's probably a doji to down day...least ways we need to test lower to complete the big sell and make a clean rotation but i think it's too easy to get caught on the wrong side of this....

worth the effort to watch the overnight action this morning
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 01:40 AM


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on the ISM news leap, the cfd front month contract $XAUUSD retraced exactly 61.8%, an emotive swing, a sell opportunity to add to opens sells
the 61.8% retrace of 1556 high to 1448 low

silver retraced 33% , the retrace alone was a non-confirmation

gold in USd's held well within the current initial downchannel

again, each prod n poke upside is on a news release

gold now has to break the channel roof and make headway on an endogenous impulsive bid



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 01:15 AM


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opened buys on hsi overnight after the US rotation post release

bids on xjo overnights look very impulsive too, at least a mixture of forced covering and oppunist bulls .....ride em cowboy/girl...just ride em

now it's upto the non-farms muckery
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 02:29 PM


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nice call for the zone, eb
#idea

$xjo
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 09:58 PM


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typical patterning, $dax catches a bid out of an ending diagonal wedge, no momo here tho, reset pre US cash open

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 07:55 PM


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def lower lows...would not surprise to see smartmoney rifle the lows thru 2820's over the next few sessions, swift moves coming

along with hsi headed for that vpoc zone low 25500's

surprising bullish % of retail long holders, they'll need to be washed out and % swing to bears positioning before the next bull leg gets underway
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 03:54 PM


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it didnt
but i get the point of you posting
good luck with that
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 02:43 PM


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local $xgd printing +85 high of 7353 currently 7441's
surprisingly small move considering the underlying (in USD's) has been in sell mode with the US pmi #'s bringing in a 28 point swing north
overnight in the Asian session gold is trickling lower again, gold appears to constantly require a squeez thru media releases or triggers but still lack endogenous uptrend
buy the views sell the news
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 01:46 PM


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slightly bigger picture idea
breadth had been very slowly deteriorating over the last two weeks in the US, the S&P500 hit an inverse 127.2% extension + plus two other smaller ratios and has been bunching up against resistance for several months, while in the background the high beta $SML had made a weekly lower low relative to the $SPX's equal high, recently the $SML had begun to make what looks like a new run at an altime high, so the selling jury is out still until both those indexes show a cleaner signal
building the chrissy rally set-up?
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 01:31 PM


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the pmi #'s gave a decent sabre rattle, indexes whacked down, gold/silver STO's whacked up
in the $XAUUSD cfd price has just managed to make a typical 38.2% retrace and hold the base of the new (grey) downchannel
bullish camp would have been keen to see this, but, i think, it's a final opportunity to exit with price strength and we have lower lows to go
now we're into the "collective bid" i alluded to prior to the pmi #'s, the failure overnight to carry thru suggests all the buying was retail + shortcovering
buyer beware


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 1 2019, 06:28 PM


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initial channel
price requires 2 more price levels to shape the primary downchannel, sellers have a lot of work to do to prove the sell case
as it's the beginning of the month money managers may still have a bid up their collective sleeves (new york fix)

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 1 2019, 05:32 PM


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$spx in prev post appears to be headed to the 6c level, maybe exceed to .054's(?)
suspect it'll be a quick turnaround
the stock is primed for a whooshka event, most likely on a decent find,
the stock can already find joint partners to make a mine and go into production
once the initial shock of gold rotation in US s is over there'll likely be a resurgence of the possibility psyche (bulltrend mentality)which will aid most local goldies that are taking hits the past two trading weeks
the $XGD (it's components) chart looks like it needs one more high as it's mostly represents gold in AUD's so valuations are up for guesses right now
the pattern suggests a long unwinding process before leading to new index highs
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 1 2019, 05:03 PM


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quite often and with no decent signal to precede, price in one larger direction requires a simple pullback to correct that larger direction
this simple ABC pattern often plays out as symmetric (where the length of A equals the length of C)
when price gets to this proposition, despite all the evidence to the contrary, it is best self-served to be aware of this possibility and the risk involved with the probability if/when it does occur, that means, even tho all evidence (todate) says we're trending in one (new) direction, we cannot fully know until the balance of contra evidence proves otherwise, in this instance we need to see this simple sequence be ridden over add even more evidence that the new direction is the dominant (new larger trend size) and that we are moving beyond the old trend to re-establish itself .....fulcrum moments
at keast from the front month contract point of view
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 07:44 PM


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Kit Lowe‏ @kit_lowe 2h2 hours ago In preparation for a possible move to a negative rate environment traders can now enter orders at negative rates in the ASX24 trade book. #ausbiz




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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 07:40 PM


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$XAUUSD is tracking south, falling out the nakatomi tower, hans gruber attempted to climb back in on friday and slipped back out in the Asia session this afternoon, given that the Asian session use to be the go-to argument of price rise maybe todays action is typical of price action to come
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
hat-tip @RVM__ for this find
Twenty Years of the Central Bank Gold Agreement comes to an end today.
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/201...comes-end-today
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 03:38 PM


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honkers jumped the rails but lack of follow-thru suggests another test of the low but i wouldnt get precious on it
....blood in the streets etc etc
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 28 2019, 10:58 AM


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xauusd/gold continue to give intermediate sell signals, trend confirmation is still some ways away
keep in mind the relative size of the below activity
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 01:32 PM


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channel, similar size swings, if the channel was broken with a swing

2x the current largest (within the channel) that would make me see the low as being in
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 01:03 PM


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small steps, am currently short hsi as no impulsive bid signal, maybe need another few hunj to find a real low,

which will be on burners upwards
it's in the bid zone so a lot of headfake lifts along the way as major players come and do their buying

the problem is in the cfd's the retail are already 68-70% buy to open .....which is not what you'd expect to see at a major low
baby steps, sparks !
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 04:38 PM


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updated
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 01:52 PM


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$ASX:SPX
after the initial hype and deep pocket buy-ins this stock is now rangebound based on the sell into any strength and the diminishing discretionary activity in the auction, in the 6-8c range this stock is offering good value i think if you have the patience to ...on the last release the market decided that release offered enough strength in the auction to sell into (albeit small daily turnover) and now late-comers are trapped...closer to 6c offer back of the napkin decent value even if gold/silver take decent hair cuts, it would have to be based on production of the site and possibility of largest find todate exceeding the current inground resource ......every likely a decent find will force a strong whip-up but that doesnt necessarily equate to a strong trend

RXL and VMC (joint venture) had a decent release and both failed to make higher highs .....so clearly there's tentative outlook and most players who wanted in, on recognition of the big swing in xauusd and xauaud, are now in ......

local SPX worth the DD tho
(not held)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 01:37 PM


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retail cfd running at 70%bids (30% short) after this mornings sell

the current media rounds are perfect hype fodder for "put a shipping container underground in your backyard" gurus
i think the PM markets are at a major decision time, the best reasons cannot be hid behind now, put up or shut time for the must own gold crowd
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 02:13 PM


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an ETF gives good earnings exposure ..hard to get a low swing entry
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 01:55 PM


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honkers in the bid-zone for a longterm rotation back to uptrend
baby steps, sparks, baby steps

$hsi
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 01:52 PM


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longtail impeachment buy-in bar
$xjo ph34r.gif


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 11:47 AM


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https://twitter.com/TraderJazzHands/status/...673737271209985 $gold all the hikes were hypes, all news driven, traps, overlapping rubbish from trend perspective, less peak gold more peak puffery and guru strawmen







Julian‏ @TraderJazzHands

$gold, impeachment pivot .......nice

6:35 PM - 24 Sep 2019
#STO $XAUUSD $GOLD ......when everyone wants in: sell it to em !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 21 2019, 08:21 PM


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https://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...-arctic-methane



climate-change-arctic-methane

excerpt:

"... scientists have been documenting a mysterious rise in levels of methane in the atmosphere. And it’s getting worse:
Earlier this year, data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that the rate of the increase
surged by 50% in the 2013-2018 period compared with the preceding five years"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 01:47 PM


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quite right !
theyre using the leaves to figure on zones to dig versus the idea of extracting gold from tree leaves
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 12:53 PM


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this had me laugh.gif

" MEU...They're looking for gold in tree leaves!..."
found on social media
you know the old "Tallest Building Index" or the "Restaurant Index"
i think we've found our sell gold index

extracting gold from tree leaves

.......the moment equivalent to landlords asking for rents in gold bullion and gold-specific ATM's appearing
remember what happened to bitcoin not long after the first bitcoin ATM's appeared ....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 10:53 AM


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a secondary channel is confirmed, this has not confirmed a rotation in the larger up-phase, not yet,

..the current "sell the news spikes" and the extreme positioning of both major groups (managers v commercials) suggest the bets downside are better
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 15 2019, 10:09 AM


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#trend #perspective



Walter Murphy‏ @waltergmurphy The weekly cumulative a-d line for the broad S&P 1500 closed at an all-time this week

12:59 PM - 14 Sep 2019
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 14 2019, 08:44 PM


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worth noting

the xauusd cfd hit 1557's sept 5th

this morning we closed just above the low of swing south of 1484's of sept 11th


that's 73 points in 5 trading sessions, slightly over 4.5% swing, not huge, but, quick

what's interesting and sits inline with the www.timincharts.com COT readings for GC contract

is the reading for retail cfd positions which is 73% BTO (long)

if we say the other 27% is hedging (unlikely) then that 73% buy to open is very bullish mentality, very little fear, buy the dip rationale

if you traverse twitterspere the vast majority of "chartists" show a a clear delination to longer-term/larger timeframe bull scenarios where this weeks move was a simple reset
what's interesting is, almost unanimously, no one see the downside
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 14 2019, 03:21 PM


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https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-c...-explained.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

on this chart i've drawn an orthodox triangle
the whole bounce may now be completed based on this techno-speak

in this chart there are 3 legs, up-down-up
where up is fairly simple and obvious
the down is complicated in a triangle, the triangle is complete
it consists of ABCDE, there is a ratio of 1:.382 of the C and E, this is a typical construct to complete the triangle
the next and final move, the second up (of the up-down-up) is a thrust symmetry of the first up leg
that is usually 100% (ratio of 1:1)

the practice is to draw a vertical line (price length low-to-high) of A (low)

to the (high) green timeline, that vertical line is the "thrust" price length applied to the termination of the E leg
the end of the E is the end of the triangle, the triangle has already ended before it exits the boundry of the triangle

price typically under or over-throws that target by a few ticks but should be near enough to confirm other markers i would use closer to the rotation
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my normal asking question of any techno-speak is; does it affect how i would trade the bars during the session i think a substantial rotation is printing?
in other words, would this "event" or zone of likelyhood make any difference to the trade technique normally applied?
as this is a specific criteria for trade perspective rather than just normal trade technique, the answer is definitively yes, simply because the risk

we should expect to see a swing in how the auction is transacting, what volatility occurs and what new price lengths are printing, meaning, how are the
swings unfurling, do the moves fit the picture of a "larger: rotation, doe sit make sense, does the price action fit a new context,
fit the current context, do the swings make relative sense
this merely adds to specific trade executions we can take without adding risk and allows the levels (most recent high now holding a higher profile)
to be navigated with a new roadmap in mind, at least how to profile, how to frame my thinking on what is the higher probability(s) unfolding
it allows reframing the context of the larger plays at hand and who is likely conducting business, given the time of day etc...
it would, more importantly, define sizing and whether a positional trade (an anchor) is worth the risk, we don't want to open the screen after the weekend
and find we've been gapped out and i have to see markers that suggest the construct fits a larger rotation, mostly those markers are going to be the

extremes in sentiment (with the previous trend) and price construct in the direction of the rotation

if the new pricing, or price construct is clean, non-overlapping, with momo that suggests volume entering and we have impulsivity in the new trend
direction....so far
the next effort over coming days and weeks is to find the marker that says the larger trend is printing in the new direction, this not just affects how risk
is framed but if an anchor position requires paring
while it is nice to have a tenet that we should take a 100% reward if we're taking 100% risk, in reality we must accept that finding and acting on a major
trend swing is extremely rare.....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 14 2019, 12:42 AM


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Julian
@TraderJazzHands
·
1m
when does the "incontrovertible uptrend" become the inconsolable downtrend? 1484's front month connie

-----------

words on a screen, just another cupcake on the highway, 2c worth
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 14 2019, 12:34 AM


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i have several stop-sells (STO) triggered already

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:51 AM


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$XAUUSD front month cfd broke 1502's very smoothly, bids have essentially dried up but shorters are not pressing the pedal down, yet

we should expect a puke sell at the low of this first leg down
and then a few days to weeks of resetting to allow bidders to catch their breath and buy the dip
the bounce is likely to be taudry and catch both sides out so patience is the key as we have not yet found a clear confirmation the
downtrend has resumed, at that point pricing should move swiftly
this pretty much somes up the 30 year T which display a smooth trend south too (so far)
there is no specific level i can site downside for either intstrument that we should aim for, there are plenty of

rotational ratios (swings against the trend) to use as resistance


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 06:38 PM


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if you've clearly defined that youre still in a bull leg,
then these points wont be of concern
the auction is making you accept lower highs
the xauusd front month contract is printing -53 from the high, failed to hold the news whip, pros sold the strength
the COT clearly shows all hands to one side of the boat
there is no divergence between silver (and gold) selling from an impulsive high
last week printed an outside-down weekly bar
there is likely to be a lot of stops at 1500 psycho level, not to mention multiple M/A stops there
all of that in consideration; is it a buy the dip moment or a sell (confirmation) in the making ?
i am STO and looking to add on a break of 1502's in the front month contract
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 7 2019, 09:19 AM


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the news whip merely allowed strong hands to distribute, the news couldnt even make the halfway retracement of

previous sessions sell down and silver took outs the equivalent low completing the sell signalgold also printed an outside down

daily signal in the dec contractxauusd cfd still register 62% bulls telling us the retail buying the dip, getting the never ending,

always giving, discount to a previous price ...
the contract extreme positioning tells me the STO bets are a better r/r than the BTO bets ...or when in doubt, stay out, STC
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sell to open, buy to open, sell to close
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 01:03 PM


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+
clearly silver in agreement with this mornings sell is way over stretched in the sentiment department as per my post last week, todays COT report is prob going to show extremes still hold for trend following manager and retail
but giving it room to move, risk profiled, small size until support levels give way to GMTFO trades that have too much on the BTO side

with the US equities and honkers/aussie 200 on the bid refusing the "sell everything coz a guru said so" team liquidity maybe
rotating back into faster equities rises ....afterall....who needs negative interest rates !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 12:58 PM


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gold ($XAUUSD)
took a decent whack this morning, still short on that looking for an attempted rotation north around 1502's but it'd have to go well into 1430's to signal a trend rotation back to a bear market has taken place
it is far more likely that money needs to wash out, a range bound topping process rather than an impulsive sell, even tho this mornings initial leg downlooks pretty solid from a STO point of view
2c
(i am also STO US30 year bond)
*STO = sell to open
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Aug 31 2019, 05:03 PM


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there are a lot of assumptions about Au as an "investment" ....it is a punt on a set of ideas that have no endogenous nor intrinsic value as a function of business that can sustain the current, self-imbued, sense of bullish stuff, that doesnt mean it has value that cannot be measured, it merely implies the current value has zero sustainability outside of the posturing of it, in the same way that a new ice age was inevitable, in the way that when it last made it's high in 2011 there were landlords demanding gold for property rentals and every gold jewellery hawker was buying and guess who were the biggest buyers, that's right, your friendly central banks ......the COT report clearly shows an extreme worthy of a crash.....



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http://timingcharts.com/
code GCselect COTselect 10Yselect Twiggs Money Flow adj to 65
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 03:14 PM


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may we see your alternate count, please ?
alternate counts give a traders perspective 'balance', as best it can be balanced based on their technique of applying the EW principle(traders often develop an unconscious technique of applying the EWP while feeling they have an advantage BY applying the EWP)

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 15 2018, 10:43 PM


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as the owner of this site cannot be attentive to minor details such as expanding jpeg upload facility there's not point in being here as that stuff is my fave shtick

hohum ....bummer !

good hunting to ya, eb and nipper smile.gif

.......recloaking

julian
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 15 2018, 10:35 PM


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about forecasting

the challenge is not the prediction/forecast of itself (from whomever)

the challenge is the emotive logic one takes on (as the prediction/forecast)

I say, if you do not have a relative reference point to counter the dialogue youre reading and subsequently do not have the tools to challenge the dialogue, then, in the extent of quality, let's say. a peer-reviewed analysis, you cannot offer any opposing idea

that means

your ignorance is filled, the blanks are filled in for you

you are, as one infamous French author made of the 9/11 flights into the towers achieved, you become a witness to ideas, to evidence, so,e of which is perfectly valid of itself, yet, again, within a self-served context and relative perspective

once you own this "evidence" and you become "witness" to its "validity" you are then prone to defending what you have decided is valid

this defence is what i call emotive logic

you may become a buyer of all tops and seller of all bottoms

so you see, responsibility is not with the writer of a forecast, rather, it lays with you to be better than, ahead of, to know more than the forecast offers


2c
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 12 2018, 03:08 PM


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plenty of generic indicia yesterday to say today would be an upday, honkers bully overnight
it's probably more a case of manufacture the santa rally (less selling) to sell-into and the new year strength for anotherkicker selldown .....altho, i'd hold my sell guns on honkers, that looks pretty complete and primed for resumption of quarterly uptrend

#havingaguess
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 12 2018, 11:06 AM


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living the dream
https://twitter.com/i/status/1072598448589946880
dream state
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2018, 12:03 PM


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$xjo
last one, can't post jpegs:
Upload failed. Please ask the administrator to ensure the uploads directory is available
.....today showed plenty of bid/offer volatility, to me a good sign buyers around to scoop the low, me too
retaking and closing above 5648's would be a top sign of bullish rotation
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2018, 11:37 AM


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Posts: 1,110

" buy the cannons, sell the trumpets"
for long term investors a good axiom
but you know ....trumpets ...hmmmm......trumpets .....say it slowly... tongue.gif
arrested developments, eh

here's your 250 plummet in the $dax futures 66 points in the $spx front month contract
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-chin...usiness+News%29
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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