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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2018, 01:05 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 13 2018, 12:51 PM

from TA point of view that 71.40---71.50 is the key level to support AUD, now we have a fake break down on that level.
so for a short term trader close out shorts would be a wise move or discipline move.
but this jump is due to rumours that US going to ask china to talk about trade , so i reckon this issue will go on for some times given that crazy irrational Trump on the helmet
i would give another day {tomorrow is Friday} to see it drops below that key level again.
still holding my shorts but on the age to close it.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 13 2018, 12:51 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 8 2018, 05:57 PM

Todays employment statistics have put a floor under the AUD.
With a much higher full time jobs increase , pressure on wages frowth must surely be starting to build up.
With inflationary pressures from rising energy costs and lower currncy values starting to build,
something is going ro have to give.
Will it be a wages inceease, an increase in interest rates (official or unnoficial), or a black swan event, who knows.
Perhaps the AUD has bottomed out ?
Time to close out the shorts EB??

Mick

ABC News



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 8 2018, 05:57 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 8 2018, 11:50 AM

it will be under 70cps soon from TA point of view.

when it does, then aussie's inflation will be up as most of stuff are come from overseas




 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 8 2018, 11:50 AM
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So, the AUD closes at a smidgen over 71 cents against the USD over night.




From KITCO
QUOTE
Undeniably the most important economic data to be released this month is the U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report which came out today. Economic estimates for new nonfarm jobs for the month of August came in at 190,000. The actual data released today came in above expectations and forecasts revealing that 201,000 new nonfarm jobs were added last month.

These solid numbers are the last and most important data set that Federal Reserve will look at during the next FOMC meeting scheduled to begin on September 26.

Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool predicted that there was a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce and implement another rate hike of a quarter percent at the end of this month’s meeting. Today following the release of the jobs report the probability of a rate hike according to the FedWatch tool is now at 99.8%.


Probably of greater significance was the following news

QUOTE
he unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%. The biggest news was higher worker pay. The average wage paid to American workers rose by 10 cents, or 0.4%, to $27.16 an hour. The yearly rate of pay increases climbed to 2.9% from 2.7%, marking the highest level since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009
Big picture: The economy surged in the spring and is still growing rapidly as the fall approaches. Most companies are hiring and layoffs have tumbled to a nearly 50-year low.

Read: Jobless claims fall to 203,000. They haven’t been this low since Dec. 6, 1969

Aside from a shortage of skilled labor, companies say their biggest problem is coping with a spate of higher U.S. and foreign tariffs that have raised the cost of key materials such as steel and lumber and made it harder to obtain supplies.


.


Of course, on the downm nside, the same article as above when on to say


QUOTE
Employment gains for July and June, meanwhile, were revised down by a combined 50,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The government said 147,000 new jobs were created in July instead of 157,000. June's increase was cut to 208,000 from 248,000.


Me thinks there is still a bit of steam left in the climb of the USD.

Mick







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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 1 2018, 08:24 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 28 2018, 09:26 AM


QUOTE
On the ABC financial report last night, Alan Kohler remarked that the smaller banks have started to increase their mortgage rates (admittedly by very small amounts) in response to an increase cost in obtaining funds. His final comments was "how long until this flows through to the larger banks".
Looks like the next phase is onwards and upwards.


Well, Westpac are the first of the big four to jump (mind you, 14 basis points is atd over 1/8% , not exactly a huge increase).
Given the cost of funds is increasing (at least that is the excuse given by Westpac), ya gotta wonder why the banks still pay such paltry rates on deposits.


Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 1 2018, 02:00 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 1 2018, 07:05 AM

am not a big whale like you Mick, tongue.gif
i did it for hedging my oversea's position, and the shorts paid me a lot more than hedging so far... lmaosmiley.gif

thank you and nipper, blacksheep, you guys helped me to hunting this one down.



 


nipper
post Posted: Sep 1 2018, 08:46 AM
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Again, the local currency seen as collateral damage?
QUOTE
Australian dollar tumbled more than 1 per cent, falling to its lowest level in 20 months, as the US and Canada ended their trade talks without a deal. The currency pared some of its losses after the US said talks would resume with Canada next week

Lots of reasons for USD to gain, with Trump's populist if simplistic hectoring of all n sundry



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 1 2018, 08:17 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 1 2018, 07:05 AM

OOPS, make that the 71 handle.!
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 1 2018, 07:05 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 15 2018, 01:27 PM

QUOTE
hanging around 72cps currently ,
71.40---71.50 is a last but really big support for aud/usd, if it fail to hold then sub 70cps will be "a almost sure bet" from TA point of view.
still hold the shorts

Well , we dropped another 100 basis points last night, the AUD now down into 72 handle.
Given that the leadership "crisis" is over, ya gotta wonder wjat spin they will pt on this one.
You lining up for a nice Bugatti or Roller EB??
Mick



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Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 21 2018, 11:19 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 15 2018, 05:51 PM

QUOTE
If the stock market doesn't care about leadership, maybe the currency markets do. The Australian dollar jumped up to US73.45 at 9am, then dropped back down to US73.35 at 9.30am, once Malcolm Turnbull was declared winner of the vote.




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If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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