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Mags
Posted on: Jan 20 2021, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

That's probably how they'll get the electric car brigade in the end: Charging overnight at home paying taxes... or at a fast charge servo... paying taxes.
The missing revenue from fuel excise and GST is going to be needed from somewhere.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 20 2021, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep...
So either RBA let's rates rise, or they buy more govco and private co bonds/assets to keep interest down.....
Which do you think they'll choose?
Only a fool could even entertain the idea of letting rates rise (yes, I was that fool for 15 years up until about 2019 when I finally found all the pieces to the puzzle.).
The RBA, and the banks, will create cash like never before. The govco and it's citizens will borrow like never before, and then one day, a switch will flick and inflation will be uncontrollable, and get worse, spinning out of control until the currency crashes.
And of course, the 80% will own assets, thinking they are wealthy (by assets, aussies only real own real estate don't they), and they will learn the hard way, that debt fuelled markets effect the price on the way down, much more rapidly than on the way up. When a young person, after taking out their first mortgage, says "it will take me a lifetime to pay it off", they are unaware, that they are actually speaking the truth.
/shrug/Such is life, financial and empire cycles: It's happened for thousands of years: the biggest revolutions in history have occurred because of fiat currencies collapsing. This time will be no different: Just this time our iPhone, facebooking crowd will be completely caught off guard.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 20 2021, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Ok... that is really weird.Like really weird.You'd think that would have come out just after the RC... not now?There's something going on we don't know about.
Oh hang on, they're dismantling responsible lending laws...

The retail credit market is going to go into frenzy: My cycle trader mate always said the 20's would be a credit fuelled frenzy... I could never see how..I do now.Even the RBA has run out of government bonds to buy: so either the govco has to start spending silly by writing even more bonds (how good is deficit spending???) or it's gonna have to hit the open market....
Either way, prices off almost every asset, regardless of fundamentals, is going to explode.I hate it, but I'm going to have to join the party.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 18 2021, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Of course, USA as just displayed has virtually zero chance of vaccination being taken up willingly by 80% or more people. Sadly this will be with us for some time the covid19 until either its captured and squashed, via lock-downs or masks and or vaccines being taken up so transmission is well under 1.

Thanks Mark: You make a very, very valid point.
I didn't understand how 'herd immunity' exists at 75-80% immunisation levels: But I spoke with a customer of mine who is a trustworthy pharmacist: At 75% of the population being immunized what happens is the 25% of the community that can carry and spread the disease isn't enough for the uncontrolled spread of the virus, it essentially isn't sustainable, so yes, some people will get it, but it will eventually die out on it's own.
Good theory.
-BUT-
As you say, how are you going to get 80% of USA citizens to take the damn thing...
-AND- the big worry, how long is immunity for???
or against???
12 months??? one or two mutations???
It appears we're now seeing the third real mutation hitting the scene... so what if the vaccine doesn't work on that???
Then we're back at 0% herd immunity...
Yes, this is going to be around alot longer than most think.
Just thank the lord every day we are in Australia, and our state premiers (some better than others) are smart enough to know their budgets (and political equity) could never cover the cost of a full blow out in covid.
My wife in medicine, still stands by the initial timeframe of no international 'free' travel until at least 2024 ie. 5 years. Other people I know in Air Port management are working on the same time frame.
Just keep yourselves and family safe and prepared for the worst.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Meanwhile market loves everything other than companies that makes money.


Had to read that twice to make sure we're on the same page....
And yes we are.
These multiples being thrown around are insane. I own a nice, profitable, small business. Hard work, stressful, taxed to an inch of it's life: But I make a good living, with great cashflow, multiple years profit in the bank should the worst happen.... and it's worth??? Stuff all. Be lucky to get 3 years net profit, plus plant and equipment: Very lucky.
Yet businesses that are only one regulation from being shut down (eg after pay), or a david in a goliaths world (eg. tesla) are being pumped... and pumped... and pumped...
The one thing I've come to learn, is that it takes the market (ie people) far longer to accept the truth when they need to calculate it themselves... or what I'm saying is, this insanity is likely to go on for years... sickening.
I just feather my nest: At the end of the day, Ferrari's and Porsche's would be nice: But I only need enough to make a comfortable living, regardless of what happens: And in 5 or so years, anything might: but until then, I'll keep saving and investing in real stuff: The stuff people 'smarter' than me are turning their noses up at.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
it seems that Joe Public is a little smarter than the experts give them credit for.


Very much so.
Much of what the media report and portray is total BS, statistics manipulated to suit a narrative: Usually to make the boomers look great and the generations around them worse.
The youth of today, in general, are far more street smart and conservative than the media will ever tell you. Yes, there are rat bags: But mostly the kids 20+ actually really impress me, far more than their flashy, kim kardashian mimicking parents.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 04:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
I believe in the Darwinian theory of evolution and selection


Well then we have a problem: As humans are the only species that enable the weak to breed.
In the animal kingdom, it's not unheard of to eat the weak: Here we tax the 'middle' and give it to the poor...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Why?
The evidence says, someone with high cholesterol, does NOT live any longer by going on statins.
That's the truth of the matter.
It's fascinating watching humans at the present. Covid has brought everything to the forefront.
For example: The 'anti-big-gov' and 'rights of freedom' crowd screaming that the government can't force them to wear a mask... Nothing is worse for the surveliance than people covering their faces!!!!
People want to believe covid is a hoax, when there are semi trailers full of bodies in NYC... Yet, when a fact such as above is verified as correct: They want to argue it.
They want to argue that humans will raise the earths temperature by 2degrees, and all hell will rain down on us: Yet here in Adelaide, we can see 35 degrees at lunch time, and be in the low teens only 12 hours later!!!! The atmosphere can disperse all that heat in 12 hours, yet they believe our behaviour can change the entire climate: LOL!
I watched something on the lady who started oz harvest the other day: Methane from food waste, which is 25X times more stronger as a climate gas than CO2, yes 25 times, is a major contributor to the total 'green house gas' load.... but no one talks about this.... I've never seen a climate change 'believer' scream that we need to waste less food!!!
I love it: The public are tearing themselves apart... while the billionaires, the world over, are now 50% richer than they were 12 months ago.
The distraction tactics work:
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 08:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Well, it's hard to argue for statins... When the use of them has never been able to increase lifespan.
With or without them, you die on the same timeline.
All I see from statins is reduced memory and cognitive function... How would I know? I'm in a tight margin industry and have to monitor my staffs productivity: It collapses when they go on statins.
But the public are well trained to walk into doctors and ask for medication for anything.
Think about the last time a friend said to you:"Doctor want's to put me on X medication for Y issue. I said I'm not keen on medication as first course of action: So I asked Doc if there's a natural way around this issue: Turns out my diet and lifestyle is totally gross: Eating processed food all day, drinking excessively, not caring where my food comes from. And oh my god, my fitness. Had no idea how lazy I've become. 10,000 steps per day they say is needed, I was no where near!"
Can't say I've ever had a mate say anything like that: I got a good mate, even in his late 20's was on blood pressure medication.... Was it his high pressure, long hour job?Haha, no way, he worked slow as F at a super market: Maybe his 2 iced coffees a day (sugar loaded), packet of ciggies, and 10 nightly beers, coupled with a terrible frozen isle re-heat diet might have something to do with it.....So he pops pills every day....
Now I'm not saying medicine doesn't have a place: It sure does: But we are far to reliant on it: Trust doctors (when we probably shouldn't) and make legal drug pushers (big pharma) super rich... Crazy.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Well that's the point: If you've got trained and qualified personnel: Let them into the work they're trained to do....
Unfortunately, wives cousin works in the PM's office, she's had a couple REALLY nice jobs at Parliament house now: And away from the camera's and the media, these MP's are just kids: Totally lacking credibility in almost all facets of their lives: Get them one on one, and they are dog shit dumb: Dropped into 'safe seats' by union and corporate money to protect their own interests.
Just in front of media and journalists they know 'how to present'... but away from that they are a disaster: hence the 'scandals' that come out. The parties, the women, the drugs, etc etc it's all real, and common place. Of course not all of them are like that, but most are.
Reminds me of my mate who does home services, had a lady in tears as she begged him to do part payments.... No unusual to want to do part payments (when you work with the public, you soon learn most are seriously broke) but she was extremely ashamed... When he asked her why this is the gobsmacking reply:
"I'm paid a ridiculously high wage: I run a state government project fund. It's $90,000,000. The state trusts me to look after $90m, but I can't look after myself".....
And that there, is the entire western government system at the end of late stage capitalism and the dying days of fiat currency.
Just look at USA... Just look at it: The richest nation on earth, being smashed by an easily controlled and extinguished virus, with over 300,000,000 people the best they could offer for leader was a multiple time bankrupt conman, or an old corrupt fogey......
What a disaster.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 08:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

We are on that path: No doubt.
But I suspect he's premature.
As I've watched over the last 20 years, bubbles (in this case, faith in the currency) last far beyond what any 'sane' person believes possible: Our Australian Housing bubble being the most astounding thing I've ever seen: Even in the face of a first recession in 30 years, the deepest on record, the worst unemployment on record, and the chance of rates for borrower lowering further are near zero: House prices continue to RISE!!!!!
And I believe this is why currency collapses are so sudden and spectacular: most people can't believe it will happen, until it does.
I agree with jacsar: Gold could be the trade of our lifetimes at present.
My position is all in: All in on:Profit spewing companiesCritical InfrastructureCash/liquid equivalents
The 'crash' of 2020 wasn't complete: There was never the panic of 2009 or the dot com era: I didn't see people panicking about their future: there was no despair.
I'm poised to scoop up the bargains when they come: My 'trader' mate tells me it's 2021 that it will come.Then we'll see the most outrageous boom in asset prices.... all due to government and central bank interference of course (capitalism and the real economy are long dead).
Then by the end of the decade it all falls apart: Properly. In a way 95% of people simply can not understand or believe is possible: They are so used to the government and central banks rescuing them, they will scream in the streets for help: But it will be too late: We will have past the point of new $$$$ being able to create the illusion of growth or stability.
Their house prices and their superannuation accounts will be steaming piles of worthless gunk, that they won't be able to off load.
And it's all on track: Doesn't matter if you're a 4th turning guy, or a jefferson guy "first by inflation, then deflation, the children will find themselves homeless".... The only theory doesn't have this collapsed ending is MMT... and don't get me started on that rot: There's nothing modern about governments printing and spending money they don't have.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jan 2 2021, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep, the elite sure have done a nice job of deflecting all energy away from the items that need our focus and immediate help.
Not sure if it's me getting older and wiser, or the politicians/governments are getting worse, or if it's both, but I've got a deep seeded hate for these shirt and tie wearing wankers that can't get out of their own damn way, let alone let someone get on with doing good.
Just proves all this talk of flexible and innovative work forces is total BS when you have 40,000 TRAINED AND QUALIFIED personel for a system at breaking point, yet they only are able to employ 5,000....

Total a holes.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 1 2021, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Well Geoff (Wilson) got his way, ALR have caved and advised to accept the offer... Wilson had been able to increase his holdings so much he could sway the company pretty hard, asking for a meeting in the new year to dismiss the board...
I'll be talking to the accountant and seeing what my tax position is on this one....Alot of it will be CGT free as they were bought in the early 80's, but my dividends were always re-invested... damn it, that's gonna be a expensive trip to the accountant I guess.
Screw wilson.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 31 2020, 12:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

You make valid points: I was just responding to why it hasn't tanked. Because it's more than just our trade with China, and all your points back this up.
Australia couldn't go broke if it tried: Look at the idiots in Canberra, for over a decade we've had no end of idiot leaders and policy changes, none of which has really impacted the country on a 'foreign' economic stand point. Our resources allow us to vote for idiots that promise us the best personal 'payout'.
Shorten losing the last election on the back of serious taxation reforms, just proves that: Too many people worried about paying tax, let someone else pay it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 31 2020, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Umm... sure.
But then there's the fact that prices are 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 etc times higher than in 1991.So the avalanche will be bigger.I'm the ultimate housing bear: Have been for 20 years :/But short term prices will rise.$20k released from super...removal of responsible lending
etc etc.Once those streams of new 'owners/investors' is sucked dry, then we might see some real action:But in the mean time, investors are coming back into the market (RBA credit growth says so)And maybe the foreign buyers will return if this corona thing gets sorted.But in the mean time, the lack of immigration puts a huge hole in it...Oh, and then there's the corona 'tax' we're seeing in places like Adelaide: Many high paid desk workers from Syd and Melb can work 'permanently' from home: So they're returning back to Adelaide with salaries 2/3/4 times what the local ones are: What you reckon that's doing for prices????Good luck to the flippers, the market could move either way rapidly.Anyways, I don't really care anymore: I'm debt free in my forever home so I just gotta focus on building my retirement fund.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 30 2020, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
What I dont understand is why the AUD has not tanked, given our largest trading partner is going out of its way to damage pretty much every industry it can.


Because the media have tricked you into believing the AUD$ is based on trade.
It's not.
It's based on two things:A: FIrstly, fiat currency: The ability of the government to pay it's obligations (ie. bond holders) via controlling and taxing it's citizens (Compare Aus. to Greece.... Yeah, we do it very well)
B: It's not the trade surplus/deficit that's important, but the ACCOUNT surplus/deficit. Our superannuation industry has pushed our account surplus to the stratosphere. Australia is now able to act like a spoilt trust fund kid: The money is going to always roll in :/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 30 2020, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Two broke fools teaming up together....
It's called desperation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 17 2020, 11:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Got to agree with Mork and Mags and anybody else who is a climate change skeptic.


Please don't call me a skeptic: That's insulting.I agree the climate changes. It has to, otherwise our understanding of history is wrong. Dark ages, ice ages, hot times etc.

What I don't believe is that CO2 is the cause of it.
And the green movement are just so biased and blinded by the BS is what really aggravates me: it's worse than listening to a born again Christian or reformed smoker etc. You get the picture.
Like I say, CO2 is the foundation of our entire food chain: No CO2, no life....
But then these fools, want nuclear power... To which I always ask, if CO2 is as bad as you say, and as hard to clean up as you say (not really, just plant fast growing plants....), then how in the actual f, are you going to clean up the nuclear waste problem which has a half life of years/decades/centuries/millenials.....
Of course, some robotic answer about 'must change before catastrophe' etc etc... yadda yadda (seinfeld reference)
So byron bay gets beat by a king tide... big bloody deal.
My mate lives with his auntie on the adelaide foreshore... I ask her it must have been expensive to buy there... NO!She produces a photo album, she was six blocks off the coast, there was a cricket oval even... she has the photos, and the photos of the day a storm took it all, leaving her with the foreshore. IIRC that occurred in the sixties....
The earth repossess dirt, it creates some dirt... It's just change.
That I choose to have a warm/cool home, and on demand cooking etc is not what caused a king tide in byron bay.
FFS. I can't believe we even have to discuss this....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 16 2020, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Haha, I knew I'd get a bite smile.gif
QUOTE
This problem has exponentially grown for a few decades now and you deniers are asleep at the wheel. We wont argue over it, I knew all about it well before Al Gore pitched in with his spot on movie. Meteorology is my field of expertise and 99.99% of us are all very worried. Your future generations are about to suffer immeasurably unless you all wake up and change, which is very hard for most folks to do.

Exponentially??? C'mon you're joking. Perfect robot answer: Even chuck the old 'about to suffer immeasurably' call to action in. LOL. You guys been screaming end of world for 40+ years now. Same as the end of oil... guess what? they keep finding the crap. And the only reason the price ever goes up is because of supply cuts: If it was a true open market, god knows how cheap it would be.
"howard is asleep on climate change'... 13 years later is my life any worse? Nah, probably better, the ozone layer is nearly repaired.

You see the real problem is you say your background is meteorology. You're a scientist... Yet ask my brother in law, operating a multimillion dollar farming business what he thinks of you guys.
For 40+ years you've screamed end of the world.... Yet you guys can't even get a 3 day forecast right, let alone a 7 day. Much less a month or a season!! You try to predict the future of the entire global system??? You can't even get a city right.

Then there's the science thing: What is the key thing about science? Equilibrium.Yeah, too much c02 in the atmosphere? plants will grow faster.Too much c02 in the atmosphere should be SLOWING fires, because of the reduced oxygen concentration.Cars that rely on oxygen for combustion must be struggling with the lack of oxygen in the environment then right??
etc etc
CO2 isn't the enemy you're being lead to believe.
Pollution is the enemy: Plastic, mercury, lead, etc etc.
***I note no one offered a comment on how to recycle the dead solar panels*** Funny that... I guess robotic answer will come eventually when enough people start asking these questions.

I'm sick of being told to shut up about this: I'm calling it for what it is.
Total and utter lip service from a few vested interests that line their pockets.
EG Branson: how dare he talk about climate change when he holds a significant stake in the entire global CO2 machine that is jet engines. Sell out, do something usefull with that capital... Nope.
Al gore, is just a PR for 'action'... all he invests in via blood and gore is green tech, in a hedge fund of all things: A pump and dump machine. I'm not even gonna try to google how many billions his companies have received in 'subsidies' and 'research grants' and exemptions from usual laws, taxes and regulations. I bet he's not donating extra to the government to speed up climate action..... Think about this stuff.

The hypocrisy is astounding, yet completely UNQUESTIONED.
It has permeated even the most intelligent individuals, the EV 'revolution' is a total farce. From the lack of elements on the face of the earth to be able to electrify the grid, to the absolutely mindblowing KWh needed to move these vehicles.... The greenies kick up a fuss about the power use of Bitcoin, but never, ever, ever question how joe bloggs is gonna get 30KWh, every day to drive to work... never mind heating/cooling his house, cooking, watching tv, powering his computers, his phone .... A complete utter joke. That's a 10kw solar system (how many consumers seriously have that?) with 3 perfect hours at 100% efficiency.... Drop it to a 5kw system (still big) and you need 6 perfect hours....
A total total joke and piss take on the tax payer.
At the end of the day, other than gravitational energy, there is no such thing as a free lunch: All energy on earth comes from the sun.The best 'renewable' energy we have is when the sunlight is stored as energy by converting hydrogen and carbon into a hydrocarbon... Natures own store of energy, a freaking natural battery.....

The exact source of energy the 'greenies' want to stop using.
Massive facepalm.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 16 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Australia is insignificant on a global scale. ~0.3% of the worlds population. I once got in a heat discussion with a global company product head, and was telling him, their product needed to be modified for Australia (I was a foreman at a car dealership, sick of losing my bonus and being on award wages fixing their f ups): I was put in my place quick smart: "Australia is 1% of the global car market, we are NOT modifying a vehicle for you".
We literally have no right to be at these 'global policy' meetings, telling other nations, how to run their business: These other countries have problems that would melt poor old scomo's PR machine in days. The reason Australia can be impacted by flood, fire, hurricane, earth quake, land erosion etc etc in one year is because we are so big geographically.It's basic maths. It almost certainly is NOT man made 'climate change'.
As predicted by my inside investor mate, the fossil fuel companies are now getting paid by governments all around the world, and they will be paid to shut down their fossil fuel operations... Think very carefully about what is going on here: Rich people are getting paid to stop their operations... If it was a real problem, they would have quietly sold out years ago, got their capital and moved on... No, they were able to get power in government, and get paid to stop operations: It is a huge, huge scam.
Al Gore was the one who triggered many people... some drank his cool aid, the others asked, 'whats in it for him'... Well, it's blood and gore. Go research that.
I've got a feeling that climate change is not in Australia's top 5 problems... I've got a nasty feeling about where this China stuff is going... Keep your friends close and your enemies closer... and I think Australian's mistook China for a friend: Hope I'm wrong on this. And I hope USA is there when we need her.
It's all a great joke on hard working families and small business owners: We live on the most energy rich continent per capita on earth: yet we pay the highest power prices in the world..... All while China commission new coal powered stations.

We've pushed low income earners and the poor in Australia into a place where they're scared to use heaters and air conditions because of the cost, but 'oh we use renewable energy'... while china continues to open new stations: Some sources say they're planning another 300.

You know what really is mindblowing? The fact that C02 from fossil fuels is a vital component of everything we do: It is literally the food for all plant life... Nature cleans it up.yet here we are, 25 years into the solar panel boom, they are now failing on mass, reaching end of life.
And no one knows how to recycle them.
The go to land fill.
What environmental damage was done to build a solar panel....And now, it's just junk, filling in a hole, most likely poisoning the ground water, leaching lead and other chemicals into the soil...
C02 gets turned into plants..
Think I'm joking?? In EU, big corporates are paid to 'capture carbon'. You know what they do with it? They pump it into high intensity green houses for crops, it makes them grow like mad: yields through the roof..
Think about it: Rich corporates taking government money to speed up crop growth and increase yield...
LOL.
And the suckers on the street are paying for this, and thinking they're doing the right thing.
LOL. The matthew effect at work: The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
You can't make this stuff up.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 08:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

WAM are on a buying spree: My CLF is still under attack, he (Geoff Wilson) is now attempting to sabotage the board.I've never understood the 'hype' around WAM/Wilson, but now I see he is just a spruiker. Looking at the boat load of paper work he's sent CLF shareholders, you'd have to have rocks in your head to want WAM over CLF.But it is what it is, we are in a highly unstable economy, stocks are at crazy valuations: There's a big shake up in the Telco industry, the Amaysim boys are probably doing the right thing ie. take WAM's offer then dump them for cash.
I'm not impressed by WAM actions at all. If I had their shares, I'd be selling out after seeing the circus, and waste of shareholder funds in his attempt to get CLF: Which at the end of it all, is just an attempt to buy 'below' NTA to provide some 'growth' to his existing holders. WAM's shareholders display the behaviour of those in a cult....
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Dec 11 2020, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

We're on the home stretch with this currency system. By 2030 it will be different.

As you point out, 'new' money has to have interest paid on it: So if all the debt is paid down, you're left with just interest payments owing.Therefore it's a mathematically impossible equation. It is a ponzi scheme. Asset prices are now part of the ponzi scheme.I used to think it was just houses that were a ponzi (where the early investors need new investors to have the ability to pay out a return). And it sure looks that way.But it's actually the currency thats a ponzi.
Hard assets are the go: Metals, houses, cars, antiques, power stations, water supplies, gas supplies, oil supplies, mineral companies etc. The stuff that always has value is where you need to be to ride it out. There's gonna be the mother of all booms this decade.We're seeing that now, stocks at all time highs, property at all time highs, bitcoin off to the moon again etc etc.
Why? Cause there's so much 'new' cash been pumped into the system.But you can't over ride maths for ever.
We've been off gold since 1971, that's 50 years, it's been a nice run. We've built massive cities, massive supply chains, raised the standard of living, no one starves in western economies, massive progress in the efficient use of energy, massive improvements in health etc etc.Many witch couldn't have occurred without fiat currency.But history tells us, 40 years is the lifespan of a currency.
We are 10 years past that already.Central banks everywhere injecting cash just to stabilise the economies: And that's pre-covid. The fed in USA was injecting EVERY NIGHT starting in september after their repo market stated it wants interest rates at 10%.... 10% of the USA economy is zombie companies, companies that are only paying interest on their loans, no growth, no profit, no returns... so if interest went to 10% it's game over for the USA economy.
And that's where fiat fails: if it was a true market driven economy, we would have allowed interest rates to rise: But no, the central bank meddlers had to justfity their jobs (and shift wealth and power to the elite they serve).Think about it: Why is a kid in a casual job, paying the same interest rate on his home loan as a middle manager at a huge global company? Are their risk profiles the same? Hell no. Yet according to our modern system, they pay the same interest rate. The entire system is broken.It's a patch work of cover ups and crack repairs...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Plastic surgeons say business is up, partly because clients dont like how they look on Zoom


Well that's from the lifestyle they lead... all that piss they drink... and wacky weed being smoked, and the meth... the meth!!!!
Wife and I just turned 40, and people can't believe we are that old... We don't drink (I've had like 6 beers this year), no smoke, always sunscreen etc etc..
The bit of TV I do watch, I 'observe' reality tv, usually disgusted at how 'hard' the girls look: I often see girls that look 40+, then they say she's mid 20's!!!!!!!!!! WTF do these people do to themselves???
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
It may not concern him, but I bet it concerns some of the external lenders.

The next interest rate movement will be up.


Wish you were right.
Australia is 'leading the charge' on manipulating bond yeilds/prices.
RBA already done $100,000,000,000 on Melbourne cup day: yet stuff all people are aware....
That's $4,000 per australian citizen, dumped into financial markets.... AKA the rich. Did I see any of the $4,000 dollars? Did you??? Unless you're directly in the markets, then no. Even the superannuation funds are now shaping up to be the greatest ponzi schemes in history, trillions of dollars hidden in accounts with no transparency of what they own, what they paid for 'off market assets', no way to audit them.... It's the greatest scam ever: 9-15% or more of every wage in Australia.... Mind blowing. i still can't believe we can't people to understand their super funds don't even return the franking credits to it's members!!!!!!!!! i checked the wifes super the other day, $400K, earnings for the year? $500. Yes! $500, that's 0.125%... then they take their fees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What we seen with jobkeeper, cashflow boost, state gov grants, and now all the job maker crap, is a government and financial system hell bent on protecting itself. There is no responsibility attached to any of their behaviour.

My god, I never could understand how as the currency collapses, the working are poor are stripped of everything: Yet I'm seeing it before my very eyes..... They are pillaging the working class and small business owners at an amazing rate of knots: All while the government has exception approval ratings.... An opposition that is scared to poke it's head up... I haven't heard albo for months: Literally, I have not seen this silly prat get one minute of air time??? How is that possible? he must be shit scared of doing anything after watching Shorten lose the un-losable election....
/sigh/Just protected myself and my family, and the few that will listen. It's all you can do.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Dec 3 2020, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I aint.
There's a reason countries built quarantine and detention centres in the past.
This is breach V3 now... Let's see if NSW cop's a lock down out of it.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 26 2020, 08:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And will it be exactly like the Royal Commission... and the fines that APRA dished out? Ie. completely un-enforcable... and then the ASIC BS that claims they can't regulate the banks because they sit behind APRA?
I bet the boards of the banks don't loose one minute of sleep over this. Just jawboning.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 26 2020, 08:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I wont be lining up for no vaccine: I got a bad feeling about how this plays out.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 22 2020, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

What a lame excuse that is.It's actually demographics.The kids of today, are kids of the depression: they see their baby boomer parents, asset rich, cash poor, selfish, entitled with life styles they can't afford etc etc.
The kids don't want to be like that: I may be 40, but I employ younger people and I get one well with the younger generations: They're not interested in consumerism. That's what the kerfuffle was when iPhone sales missed their target: Peak consumerism.
Chuck in the 'unseen' economic tantrum that's yet to unfold from Covid, and these kids have no interest in being the typical capitalists dream customer. It's now proven their parents drink twice as much booze as them. Two total different lifestyles.One of my mates kids, has some shitty samsung phone that's always rebooting, crashing/over heating etc etc... but he wont replace it: He's got a years wage in the bank, drives an old car paid cash for, has no intention of upgrading, buying a house etc etc.Just happy to eek along putting money in the bank.Of course the media tell us it's different, that they party, they do drugs, they can't save, they all have $2000 phones, they all have Audi's, they all have big credit card debts etc etc.
That's simply not true. I actually know several kids in their 20's that have their heads screwed on far better than their parents.....
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 19 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Kahuna1, the reason the market is completely at odds with the real world is surprisingly simple: Fiat currency.
We are watching the complete destruction of capitalism and the currency we've used for nearly 50 years (ie. paper US$). It's been a good run, it's typically 40 years for a currency system.
Will we go down a hyperinflation black hole? Not in the next few years.
Calling the end of capitalism is a big one: and I'm right on this: For most australian's don't even know what capitalism is: I was 30 before I found out. Upto that point, I'd been lead to believe communism sucks, and capitalism means free... Far from it: Capitalism means the capital moves to sectors in the economy to seek return by meeting a need.
We are far, far from that place now.

You now have to play like the big boys: Value means nothing: Fundamentals mean nothing:
You're best bet (and it is a bet) is to figure out what the central banks and the governments wont allow to fail: ALR (now CLF) taught me a costly lesson in the GFC, they dumped their WES because they needed to roll over IIRC $5b loan, and the directors of ALR didn't think that kind of money was available for a 'small' aussie company.
Of course they got the money: Even if they didn't, the government had all but guaranteed WES the money: It's 50,000 jobs on the line. Compare that to the $2b pumped into holden for just 2,000 jobs, and there's no comparison: The gov would save them: Everytime.
So now, it's just a big game of liquidity and pulling out dividends, and if the cashflow dries up: hope you company is one the central banks and or govco will prop up.
Nothing more, nothing less.
People who know nothing about stocks will make fortunes, and some that are smart but timid will lose fortunes. Good businesses are going to go bust, and terrible businesses are going to be flush with cash.
The world really isn't fair: it never was. We just had that illusion.
AS the currency approaches end of life, more and more manipulation is required. It becomes more and more unstable: Each intervention larger than the last (by more than just inflation: thats the real signal). Banks, infrastructure, construction... sectors that are 'easy sell's' to the public for support are the clear winners: But don't forget crap like media companies, entertainment etc etc. Health is the big one: billions and billions being sprayed away on a vaccine that likely doesn't work: How convenient to divert research money into dividends...
The entire financial system is sick to the core: just grit your teeth and work with it.
Otherwise, you'll get left behind in the cestpool or wage earning idiots with no assets, and growing debts.
/sigh/
I'm on the right side of this equation, but it feels shit.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 11 2020, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep: On the back of an outcome of the USA election, and the Pfizer vaccine, I see petrol go from <97cents to >$1.50 in 3 days....
Get used to these wild price swings: The central banks have intervened so drastically that 'price discovery' is shot to shreds.And when price discovery is gone, so too is the foundation of capitalism.
If we can't discover prices accurately, we can't allocate resources correctly.
Go talk to a toyota dealer: They can't get stock. Go talk to your local retailer: They're outta stock too.
Why? Cos 1 in 5 australians is now being subsidized by the government at a level unimaginable just 10 months ago, plus all the super withdrawals. Where's all that extra money go?? They've spent it of course.
The price mechanism is massively distorted, right throughout the entire economy: From the $2 shop, to the new home builders (here in SA, the big boys are booked out for 3years!!!).
So how does an investor allocate their capital? and by implication, resources??? It's a shit show.
I've never seen anything like it.
And for ME, Imma not chasing growth of my capital: Lucky enough, I don't need to now. It's about preservation and being liquid enough to take the opportunities as they arise.
I don't have time, and nor do I want to, study the market hourly/daily, hell, I barely keep up with their annual reports.
But the big lesson the last 10 months had for me is this:The economy, and it's investors, should have been slaughtered (some were when they panic sold) but the central banks are so determined to keep asset prices high/growing, that they will complete destroy the very foundation on which it was all built.
What we are witnessing is an economy growing up, like the child of a very strict police officer/church minister: They have total control over the kid, and it behaves for a long time.
But when that kid gets past the boundaries (usually age) of the controlling factor, all hell breaks loose.
And that's what's coming later this decade: There is no happy ending here, the economic system as we knew it through the 80s and 90s is long gone, the boom of the 2000's is ancient history, post GFC was just a M&A, tech fuelled, low credit frenzy (most of it was complete phantom growth) and now, Post Sars-CoV2, is just an outright financiers wet dream realized. It can't and wont last: But it will go on for longer than most think is possible.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 8 2020, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Sitting on a pile of cash that I hope to reinvest when the next big correction happens.


Be careful: You're waiting for a buyer with unlimited means to stop buying ie. the central banks.
And they can't be seen to allow a crash so soon after all their efforts earlier in the year.
It's the most chaotic, unstable, BS economy and stock markets I've ever seen: Just gritting my teeth and watching my holding scream skywards: Despite their being no reason for it.
Fiat currency, huh.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 8 2020, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Market crash imminent. So too rising interest rates. Maybe before Biden takes office. Maybe after. But it's inevitable.


Nah, 'fraid not. The amount of stimulus the central banks have done since start of 2020, they simply can't allow a market crash yet.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 4 2020, 08:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Now what happens?

Same thing we done for 10+ years now.Sit back and let the Fed keep buying bonds in our shitty stocks, while their prices scream skywards.
It matters little who's really in power:
Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 3 2020, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Debt will just keep piling up, but who cares?
This is the new normal, but for how long??


Until the tax base is unable to make the bond payments.
We are a long way from that.
QUOTE
The housing bubble will expand a bit more.


Absolutely, I've had to eat humble pie, and accept I'm wrong on the housing crash. It's not coming (for a while). The dismantling of the responsible lending laws will see Ninja loans right here in Australia: Don't laugh.
It's almost guaranteed: Only today CBA announced, no forced sales until September 2021.That's right. It is a one way market: For the time being.
QUOTE
The concept of having savings for a rainy day has just been obliterated.
Nah, that wasn't today: That was the announcement of Jobkeeper. People honestly believe gov co can bail them from anything now. Next step is the UBI (and I reckon it's coming 100%). Once UBI comes in, watch the inflation rate charge to the sky. Once you remove the incentive to work, and the value of saving for the unexpected, capitalism is dead. In the next few years, self funded retirees are going to recieve the pension: Why? Because, treasury and ATO now agree, it COSTS MORE TO MONITOR THE FEW SELF FUNDED RETIREES THAN IT WOULD TO PAY THEM THE PENSION!!!!!!!
Why save to be a rich retiree, when the government will treat you the same as said rich retiree??

The economy, prices, retail, commodities, stocks, etc are all going to become unstable: How can they not? 1/3 of the world in lockdown, and the stock markets have mostly recovered??? C'mon, it's a joke now.
Play the games if you want: Just don't be the last one caught carrying the can
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 3 2020, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
I thought they declared it LATE January


Can't recall, maybe it was only weeks, but it was late: My wife is a radiographer, she came home from work in January, said she'd seen the x-rays out of china, and if this thing gets hold of you it's bad: She spent 4 nights at the super market stocking up: And we still keep stocked up, this isn't going away anytime soon.
I follow mish, and his source was Dr. Chris Martinsen, yeah, a bit of a wack job, but his data and opinion were right: It was a pandemic coming, and stopping the entry of the virus is the only real solution: Look at all the land locked countries, they're getting wrecked by it: If you can't control the movement of hosts, you can't control the virus.
It's that simple.
QUOTE
They are really the smartest humans around.

I've only travelled overseas once, and from that I learned, they are the most annoying: Not physically pushy like some of the other continents, but OMG, that bloody accent kills the mood of any meal.
QUOTE
Fox News people and Alan Jones ... Bolt and other types like that.

Do yourself a favour, never listen to these guys, they are so desperate for ears/eyes/clicks, that it's sickening to watch now. 15 years ago, news readers were somewhat likeable. Now they are just whores, trying to scream the loudest to get your attention, so they can beg potential advertisers to use them. How gross.
I once liked Bolt, but haven't listened to him for probably 2 years: I get 40% of my info from places like this, 55% from other business owners and maybe 5% from public sources (ABS, ATO, TV etc).
Post ~ 2012 I really began to doubt if Australia was the lucky country: As a childless couple, one with high income, me with a business, and significant assets between us, we pay sickening amounts of tax, and receive nothing in return: Nothing. Don't tell me I'm part of a safe society, our schools are broken, health is failing, we have people dying in ambulances in the hospital car parks, our roads are shagged etc etc... The one time my business needed police support, they were less than useless, going so far to use a police prosecutor to tell me BS, that I proved was incorrect when I eventually got to air my issues in court: Yeah, even that took 12 months to happen. I have to fit alarms and cameras at my home, in my business, in my cars etc etc.

But, come a highly infectious pandemic, and our totally busted federation would be the key to it's success: Canberra wanted to do little to stop corona "oh the economic damage'... But our state premiers were smarter: They looked at their budgets, they looked at the hospitals, and they looked at the ICU projections: None of them could afford that: So they each went about protecting their budgets ie. locking their states down.
Brilliant.
And here we are, one of the most sane places on earth at the moment.
Who knows how USA reacts, who knows how EU will go through another winter of lock downs.
There's more refugees now than at anytime through out history. The limp wristed policies and culture of the west, has now come home to rest with societies that can't stay home, can't manage to stop the spread.
As for USA, it's just like watching Rome fall.... It's almost certainly unfixable. Their economic and societal problems can't be fixed without revolution. And the elite will use everything to stop that occurring. It's gonna get crazy for the next decade.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 2 2020, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It doesn't really matter what any of these 'authorities' say now: I don't trust any of them: The WHO were months late calling the pandemic, Trumps show, other than using money, he has no answers to problems... and it can't be denied that the USA is getting smashed by Sars-CoV2 (I call it sars, so people wake up: a vaccine is unlikely) as other countries through out the world are experiencing the same thing.
Luckily, we live on an underpopulated island, and were able to control our borders, more by luck than good management (ie. it was the states that stopped the spread more than Canberra)...
Which brings me to an old philosophy I have: Any time I see the marketing boys (well, often they're more just accountants and advertisers, not real marketers) get control of a company, it falls apart.... No wonder Scotty from marketing seems to flounder around in the top job.
Anyways, the next decade for the world is going to be very unstable.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 30 2020, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
didn't mention how much they gonna pay for it???


Too much is my guess: Who wants to bet when the covers are lifted, the asset prices have been ridiculously inflated, the debts and liabilities are extra ordinary, and surprise surprise, the shareholders have been ripped off, while the directors, their suppliers and consulting buddies make off with millions each??
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2020, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Thanks nipper, after seeing what these boys (the orca boys were IIRC Glaucus) did to blue sky, I'd bail on this one.
They are likely to be playing it conservative: They said BLA were ~$2.60... Turned out they were total junk: My mate lost a fortune after believing the BLA story.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2020, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Follow the money.... responsible lending is being removed: I'll be looking at going in on debt fuelled assets, mainly property. It's not rational, but after watching the Aussie housing market for 20 years, there's only one thing that matters: Access to credit.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 28 2020, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

What was the point of that article? All empires fail? No kidding.
What is evident, is the limp wrist, discipline that's been rammed down the throats of the west for the last 30 years has now come home to roost in the form of populations that can't think for themselves, and wont listen to the health advice of 'Stay the f apart'.
This is year 5 stuff: The corona virus can only survive where it has a viable host: Remove the host and the virus will die.
China proved this: Hell the Chinese citizens are smart enough to know hygiene and distancing: they've stopped socialising etc. They have no desire to return to the west for study etc.
Yet, even here in Australia, we have grumpy pensioners and youth, sooking and moaning that their lives are hugely impacted because they can't have their yearly overseas holiday!!!! WTF? What dream world do these people live in???
What the article gets wrong, as most people do! is that China will never be a financial power house like USA, UK or Sg. Their markets are too secret, too small and untrust worthy.
The USA financial system has many years left to run. It will endure longer than most 'analysts' predict.. although calling them analysts is a big stretch, all they are now are just clickbait/content producers.
The EU, UK and USA have two options: They either go through huge restrictions, crippling their economies further, or they ride corona out. Riding it out will take 3 or 4 years. It has not yet been 12 months, and it's the worst peace time loss of USA life in 100 years. Can they maintain order for another 3 years????????
Everything changed in 2019 when corona V2 got out. Very few accepted that, and very few still do.
Australian's are just as big a idiots: They're praising morrison for his response: which was FA, it was the states that did it: Each state looked at their health budget and KNEW there was no way they could afford 4% of infected people to be in ICU's. That' why borders are still shut, heavily monitored, and ready to be locked tight again.
Australia's luck was being an island: we controlled how much got into the country: and then how much it could get around. Lock downs are the only thing that work. 90% of people will simply never understand why: they've never seen the bouncing ball video of how virus's spread. They'd rather watch cat videos, or celebrate a 30 sec video of a dude drinking juice on a skateboard....
I smh in dis belief at what I see: but after being an investor for nearly 30 years, working in some of the most successful businesses in their sector in Aus, and running my own business for 10 years, I shouldn't be surprised: The level of intelliegence and self discipline, coupled with the idea that everyone is entitled to a cruisy, fulfilling life with a enjoyable job and work/life balance is just astounding.
It's gonna be a grind going forward for a few years: those that balance it right are going to be rich beyond their dreams: the rest are up for a dose of reality.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 28 2020, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

To be fair, if voting made any difference, they wouldn't let us do it.
Isn't it proof enough, that regardless of political back ground, all western governments are in the same position: Heavily taxing the voiceless small business owners and individuals, while billion dollar corps pay no tax whilst receiving massive funds/grants/exemptions, and all funnelling billions of tax payer dollars each year into a handful of bankers and bond holders as interest payments.
Step back and ask are the Australian people REALLY any better off today than in 2007 when we had no government debt? No. Health cares worse, schools are worse, roads are worse, police forces worse etc etc. Has their been any real improvement? Hell, even NBN, the largest infrastructure spend ever is a complete farce: My $300 phone on 4G is 8 X faster than NBN.... My business NBN went down yesterday: DId you know that if there is no dial tone (ie. the network is broken) then on NBN you CAN NOT divert phone calls??? A complete and utter fail.

Humans all behave the same, so not matter how prosperous you make your nation, they'll just end up wasting it all via inflation. The only thing is some humans (ie the 1%, maybe the 5%) are hoarders, and they grow their capital and hence power. The rest come into the world with nothing, and leave with the same amount. Been this way ever since humans discovered ownership.
To think that this current generation will be the one to create equality, stop inequality is just a complete fantasy that can't possibly ever exist.
The real truth, is we can only control our own destiny, and help a few people around us: Saving the world can't be done.
Voting only makes us feel as though we are part of it all: Hence why in non-compulsory voting countries turn outs are so poor: Because it doesn't really, really matter.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 26 2020, 07:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep, more and more of the same.
It's exponential: Remember how hard bush had to work to get his sept-11 stimulus through, it took months.... That was $700m.
obumma then pumped one through, that took a few weeks... $1.4 trillion...
Now under trump how much did they put in??? And did it in hours...

Just look locally: The budget for Aus is 5 times more than rudd put in... 5 times!!
Did we have endless debate on tv and radio about how the stimulus was bad??? reckless???Nah, most people just grabbed the $750 hitting their bank accounts...
Interestingly, the small business circles I move in, are hard working honest people, and most received no support at all from the government.....
And now, they all have the same conclusion: why am i hiring, when staff literally do not benefit my business financially???
My personal business, my net profit is $15k better off when I work alone. Yes, that's right: a staff member costs me $300 per week. That's how hard it is to employ people in this country. Government has made hiring too expensive, and the school system has made them useless.

And now the UBI crap being trotted out. That tax concessions given to the super system cost the budget horrifically, and that policing self funded retirees costs more than if they gave them the pension anyway...
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what's going on here: Everything is pointing to an utter collapse of the currency. People earning more to stay home, 80% of households paying no net tax, government departments costing more than the problems they're policing etc etc... It's a complete disaster.
And many, many smart individuals can see this: and all they are doing is feathering their nest. Post war these same people were entreprenuers who hired people: Now they see no benefit in staff, so they have none. Big business and investors have no desire for workforces: Company announcing staff cuts will see it's share price rise, every time.
it's a compete disaster: Feathering your nest is THE ONLY answer.
And use the knowledge of the coming economic blow up: USE and ABUSE, is my slogan. 7 in 7 is another one, from the financial sector: by (20)27 you need 7 figures, and cash out, because the years after that are going to be hell.
The stock markets are going to do what Aussie housing did since 2000: Regardless of your knowledge or skill level, almost any investment is going skywards: Just don't be that greedy sucker that's unable to take a profit and walk away.
But the economic vacuum that's coming on the currency collapse, will suck all your wealth via inflation in the blink of an eye. Don't laugh, this is coming. Remember how stupid it sounded that you'd have give people money to take oil away... well, oil did turn negative... and so to will most people finances.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 26 2020, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It's all going according to plan: We are in late stage capitalism and fiat currency. The financial places are so powerful, they are literally sucking the life out of anything they touch. Legally, ethically, morally, no one cares.
I've said it before, and I remain true to it: I will hold my banks stocks until the bitter end. There is no better business to be involved in at the present time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Oct 20 2020, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yes! One of my favourite videos...
But most favourite is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5A4Gw20dcw
All I know is, the youth are stuffed: The relaxing of responsible lending will see house prices scream even higher. -ve geared investors who have 'capped out', will now be able to keep going deeper in the red, borrowing more and more... prices screaming upwards.
Just hold profit spewing stocks, regardless of your instincts: Banks etc should be a terrible hold at the moment, but I'm in. I'm riding them to nose bleed highs, then dumping I'm guessing in 2026-28.
Expect merry hell to be unleashed in the end of this decade.
I've spent years, and a fortune of time and money, studying markets, marketing, capitalism and human behaviour: It really is mostly the same thing. But the biggest change to come is going to be societal: When the welfare well begins to run dry (that's years away, we'll see gov debt to GDP around 300% for this I guess) you'll see the real problems begin: Most people will not know how to survive. What???
By that I mean, every transaction occurs because of a exchange of value: But as I walk/drive/look around, all I see are people with no skills, no abilities, nothing of value to exchange.
Nothing.
Ever tried moving around a westfield car park? Most people can't park a car. How the hell can they produce anything for exchange, with enough profit to sustain them???
80% of households in Australia pay -ve net tax.
They exist and function because the tax payer is subsidizing them. And then there's the personal/private debt they've racked up, 'merely to survive'.
Their whole world is going to be severely impacted when fiat dies. But by hell is there to be the most wild spending (borrowing) orgy in the mean time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Oct 20 2020, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I don't understand afterpay... I mean, the allure of it, and it's brothers, zipp pay etc... But that's a conservative old mind of mine.
The issue I have with afterpay, is it makes EVERYTHING more expensive: The shop is up for 6% or so, straight to APT... so lose 10% to GST, 6% to APT etc etc...
Where's the margin?? Most retail has a net margin of single digits, so afterpay is effectively taking all the margin, while doing none of the work: What a beautiful business.
But then when I go X retailer, and I pay cash, where's my discount??? I want it for 6% cheaper... but they wont do it....
So to me, it really is just an indicator of how far down the fiat currency collapse we are: When everyday items for purchase have a 'debt' surcharge built into the price, you can be guaranteed that the currency is accelerating towards collapse. This is the trend the world over.
We've just seen the most outrageous, and largest 'government' and central bank stimulus's in history: And they have to be big because as the currency begins to die, it takes more and more effort to get the same result.
This is how fiat always dies.
At some point it will take $1 of stimulus (borrowed into creation) to create $1 of real GDP effort.... then as you go past that point, you need $2 of fake new money to create $1 of GDP and on and on it goes, until the people wake up and/or the government taxes are unable to pay the interest due (ie bond payments on the 'created money').
That we need consumers to fund consumption with debt at point of sale is frightening. It confirms everything I've said, the end of fiat is on it's way.
But this will go on for years. You'll soon see the ability to pay for necessities and utilities via debt at point of payment. ie. imagine paying for your health insurance, water, power, gas with after pay: You probably can already, but if you can't, it's on it's way....
At that point, you're paying for what you've already lived, with money you haven't even earned...... That sounds sustainable yeah?
Head down, it's gonna be a grind the next decade, but the first 5 years of the 2020's are gonna be booming, for those willing to ignore their senses and just take the ride.
just make sure you exit before the biggest crash of the last 200 years.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 19 2020, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yeah, and despite all the 'mental health' claims, suicide numbers are way down.
Why wouldn't they be? You got paid good money to stay at home. ie. the place you got to build how you want and make all the rules. You got paid to stay there!
Well some did: Being a self employed small business owner certainly didn't pay off this time.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 17 2020, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Correct: The Chinese are horrified how poorly the west have handles Sars-CoV2/Corona virus.
Thus, even when the international borders open, the student numbers will never be what they were in 2019.
The world as we knew it in 2019 isn't coming back: We know it, the governments know it. The central banks know it (otherwise why go so hard and so deep on QE??). That the fed's are now commissioning quarantine bases in NT says all we need to know: It's all changed.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Oct 15 2020, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Sure, but we know that stress test are total BS.
I haven't checked for years but our banks have derivatives that are multiples of their market cap: They will fail, no questions asked. All bank stress tests are a joke: You can't lend more than you have, against assets that fluctuate in price and be solvent: it's a mathematical impossibility.

But we have the bail out laws, and the bail in laws, for a reason: Canberra doesn't spend hours drafting, arguing and passing laws for no reason.
It's the worst, most miss aligned economy I've ever seen (I'm 40). Yet we're at record highs.... The whole thing is now clearly a scam (as fiat currency is).
The question is when do you move from the fake currency back into hard assets, before it all blows up.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Oct 15 2020, 08:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
The Australian financial system has the strength to withstand the economic downturn and support the economic recovery


I love this talk of recovery.... In case you missed it, USA, UK and EU all going back into lock downs: Sars-CoV2 can only be beaten by removing the host from the virus ie. stop the spread. Given there was never a successful vaccine for Sars-CoV1, then it's unlikely that one will exist. Just big pharma taking tax payer money for 'research'.
Sars-CoV2 will rattle around the globe 4 or 5 times before it settles down. In that time it will likely mutate and become horrendous, causing faster deaths that can't be prevented.
Just be super thankful you live on an island that 'somewhat' has the virus under control ATM. 'Supression is the term being used, but elimination is the goal, why else would you shut 25% of the economy?

QUOTE
Short story is, banks are on a death watch. Their model is now outdated

Nah, I disagree. They're part of the political machine, the regulations only ever work to their favour. Outside the central bank, they are the only institutions that can "create" currency.

Peer to peer lending may seem 'modern', 'hip', and exciting, with all it's apps and the associated BS that comes with that: But at the end of the day, peer to peer can only ever lend at 1:1, minus the operating expenses.
A 'bank' can lend at multiples...... ie for every $1 in deposits, they may lend $7 for example.

If you're rich, where are you going to invest? In a p2p scheme where you can only get a lending ratio of less than 1, or buy shares in a bank that returns 10%+ ROI????
We will need to see the death of fiat currency and fractional reserve lending before 'banks' as we know them are outdated. That's approx 10 years away in my guestimate. There's still truck loads of profit to be made in bank shares.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 12 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
I guess they hope to capitalise on the younger generations thirst for speed and ease of use.

And the complete disaster that NBN is. A total waste of time, money and effort.
I am getting NBN this week, in fact, at a business in a COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL zoned area.
Guaranteed speed? 12mb/s.
My $330 Asus, 4G phone gets 90+, often well over 100mb/s.
5G will end up being most home users connection. 5G will be awesome of 99% of consumers. Only corporate reasons will see the need for landlines, and guess what their fall back option will be anyway? that's right, 4 or 5G.

NBN will almost certainly be 'sold' off to telstra in the future for pennies on the pound.
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Oct 10 2020, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
All depends on the housing and job markets.

I wish I was as optimistic.
Canberra have now demolished responsible lending. The housing market is most likely going to boom. I deal with an electrician company here in SA that contract to some of the biggest builders here: They are literally turning new inquiries for new builds away: They are booked solid for 18+ months.
Some people are qualifying for $50K+ in grants, plus they've accessed their super, and I've heard of cases where even the parents have accessed super, so these kids all have deposits that didn't exist 6 months ago. Plus responsible lending is now gone: Any joe can borrow.

Is this sustainable? Hell, no. But that's my point: Since the late 90's housing hasn't been sustainable: The ultimate proof of that is the number of people hitting pension/retirement age still with mortgages continues to rise.
I ain't sold any of my bank stocks: And am guilty of not feeling the bottom in march/april: I expected far more panic, but the governments and central banks responded so rapidly, that was a once in a life time opportunity, and I missed it.
But I will hold my bank shares until the dying moments of our currency system: There's no better place to be than centre of the storm, chaos all around you, while you rest calmly knowing you'll be bailed out and bailed in.
It's the most absurd economy I've ever seen: But to fight a central bank and a government drunk on spending fiat is financial suicide.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 9 2020, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And that is exactly why I own shares in them far exceeding my deposits with them....
If they go broke, my deposit gets taken to bail them out via government laws...
If they break the law and profit, even wilfully admitting to it, they barely get fined, in fact, their admissions are often ignored...

If I'm clipped speeding, I don't even get a trial: Just get a fine in the mail.....
SMH: Seriously, you have to join them, because you sure as hell can't beat them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 4 2020, 05:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

You didn't think these corporations taking government money (errm... sorry tax payers hard earned dollars) were actually legitimately going to use that money to find a cure for sister virus to Sars-CoV1, which after 10 years, a vaccine was never found....
Sorry, but I'm very cynical on this topic: I think big pharma the world over is deliberately lying, stealing and profiteering on this one.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 2 2020, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

"So I said 'Slow the testing down'"
SMH
Watch the rhetoric towards China step up now that it's personal.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Oct 2 2020, 10:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yesterday I had a phone call from a mob, doing surveys for CLF, had a good chat with the chap, he reckons the acceptance rate for the WAM offer is less than 1%, so fingers crossed, it's unlikely to go through.
I had a brief read of the BS from WAM: Just reinforced what I'd thought about them. Just all bling. The trajectory of their growth is towards zero, and this is their strategy for growth, buying LIC's with values less than NTA, and preying on the uniformed to sell out.
Quite pathetic really.
I have no desire for WAM stock, so if it does go through, I'm one of those who will "Bye, and thanks for the fish".
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 28 2020, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

All mainstream manufacturers (where Tesla wants to go) make the bulk of their profits off of service, repairs and parts.
Until Tesla can make the actual selling of their cars magnificently profitable, there is going to be endless refinancing, new investors and government grants.
Not investment worthy.
That companies like Tesla exist, isn't a testament to Musk or the technology, but rather a sign of how sick our currency, and by implication, our economies really are.
I still sit this one out. I'll stick with my dividend and franking credit spewing portfolio thanks.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 25 2020, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yeah, doesn't surprise me.
See the fed's are reducing the amount of info required for home loans.
That'll push banks up every time.
Canberra must be getting sore toes from kicking the can so often.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 24 2020, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
the sword falls on WBC's head ----finally. time to to have good look at it i suppose !!??


I aint touching banks until the loan repayment holiday is over.
There's only $170,000,000,000 ie $170 BILLION worth of loans that the banks are unable to contact those liable for it....
It's not just the covid contact tracers that are getting ghosted.
I was actually thinking about my CBA holding and when to top it up: Ideally in the weeks before the bail out is the correct answer.
So let's see how bad these bad loans are, then we can start to analyse it properly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 22 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

So people have got their panties in a twist because the international banking system is moving crooks money around.
Who the hell do they think owns the banks???? They banks are owned by the crooks, they operate as crooks.

The banks are the 2nd greatest crooks on earth after the central banks.
Henry Ford was right:
QUOTE
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 21 2020, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hou...t.html#comments

My spiel about immigration yesterday agrees with the above.

It all comes down to the banks and their credit availability. If they stutter at all, we're back in 2018/19 with 20% falls over 18months, or better.
And yes, housing in Australia is a ponzi: With -ve gearing rampant, most 'investors' are losing money weekly: They just hope to sell for an amount above inflation growth that allows them to be profitable.... Very few actually value add: They just want someone to pay more: How is that done?
With increased credit injected to the system.
So if existing investors need new cash (usually from new investors, as someone with a huge portfolio of -ve geared houses has terrible cashflow, they can't keep investing) from outside the system... It's a ponzi.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 20 2020, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Australia has been built on immigration


We walk a fine line when we talk on this topic...
Immigration in itself is a valid concept. But there has to be limits, let me explain.
The main reason Australia has had such large immigration (in the last 15 years) was economic: We weren't importing skills. We weren't importing refugees. We didn't import businesses.

It was economic: Per capita, we've been in recession for quite some time. Covered up by immigration. That's right, increase immigration, GDP could stay positive.

But we weren't alone: I seen a study in USA that shown under Obama's reign, for every job created, one immigrant was imported.... Co-incidence??? Nah.
So the real issues occur, when "Melbourne' is allowed to happen: let me explain.In the 2007 draught, Victoria had severe water shortage:Since Then there has not been 1cent spent on increasing water storage.BUT! The population of Melbourne has increased 25%
HAHA: So that means, Per capita, their capacity for water storage has REDUCED to 80% of what it was in the draught!!!!
This is management at it's worst.
So then the shills scream "but we've got a desal plant"... Let's talk about that then: So how's Hazelwood going??? Oh, you shut your main generator down... So you import power from Tas, NSW, and laughably SA, which has some of the most expensive power generation in the world!!!!!
So you're going to use some of the most expensive power in the world, to run a desal plant for a city that has a growing population, with a shrinking water supply per capita... (let's not forget Australia is one of the dries places on earth)

Oh, to be a rich billionaire that owns power stations, renewable energy farms and desal plants... It's impossible to lose money.
Then of course, Melbourne has social pressures: Extremely unaffordable housing; and then you have immigration from nations where multiple generations live in one residence... This is crazy, water meter usage implies around 25% of dwellings in Melbourne are un inhabited.... Extreme unaffordability, but uninhabited....
This is management at it's worst.
So now it's not just a social issue, it's also racial.....
We know the media don't report the fully on the racial issues: Ask people that live there, what goes on never makes the news... You can't argue this stuff, you can dismiss it, ignore it... but it exists.
And then the unthinkable happened.... An infectious, deadly, health department destroying pandemic lands....
Some of these dwellings have 4 generations living in them: The kids in day care/primary school, mum and dad are working, the grand parents are likely working, and the grand parents are too poor (and it's a cultural thing) and don't want to live in aged care, so they too are in the dwelling...
Kids at school.Parents at workGrand parents at work.....
3 attack vectors for the virus to enter a house with elderly, at risk, individuals......
this is why the towers were locked down, with no one to leave: Because there was simply no way that even 'socially distancing' these guys in the community would protect those elderly: Impossible.
As it unfolds over the coming years, we'll see the masses wake up to the fact that the governments have mismanaged everything, except protecting their rich corporations: And this is to be expected, because the voters were too busy watching footy, flying to bali or disney land, or lining up to by the next iPhone... It's a complete disaster: It happened on the peoples watch, but they weren't watching.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 20 2020, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Unless there is another earth shattering event (like a war, Trump winning retaining his job as POTOS, or Collingwood winning the AFL premiership), I suespect we will stay at these levels for while.
Have stated to sell down my overly large gold portfolio to shift into property (not houses, but bare land),


Interesting observations.
Firstly I agree in concept with your land idea: Hard assets are where the value is. But must be wary of not over paying.
The world (Australia particularly) is a wash will middle class stimulus spending: Job seeker, job keeper and the .much less spoken about super redraws. Speaking with those in the car industry it's totally nuts: Used cars are selling like crazy: People that couldn't get a car loan (and I mean how dire are your finances if you can't borrow for a car?) have now got $20 k out of super and gone nuts: Interesting they bought used over new, the new car industry is stuffed, it's in a 2 year slide, with only ABN buyers and instant write off keeping the ute sales alive.
I'm even hearing of families 'pooling' their super money so the kids can get a house deposit... good lord.
So I personally wouldn't sell precious metals: I don't really see anything as risk free ATM.
That said, the pandemic is nowhere near ended, claims of a vaccine are optimistic, if not outright fraudulent.
We've seen upto 1/3rd of the world in some form of lock down, here in Australia 20% of the economy is in a police state to remain at home >23hrs a day.
And yet stock markets are near record highs???
Pullleeeaassseee. This doesn't make one scrap of sense.
If your parking your money in assets that are propped up by borrowing, jobkeeper, jobseeker or super redraws... be vary vigilant: Crash is likely incoming.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2020, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
It makes me wonder if the younger generation have been dumbed down so much that they can't do basic maths anymore.
If you point out the BS and obvious profit scamming by big business you inevitably get called a climate change denier.
Seems there's more currency in virtue signalling than any common sense reality.


They actually don't know anything. Literally.
One of the big hardware/nursery chains in USA couldn't work out why the millenials weren't spending with them: So they hired a consultancy to study it for them.
They found that many millenials had trouble with hardware related tasks and had all but given up on plants. Hence they simply didn't frequent there.
Ok, so why the trouble with plants: Of course many are working 3 or 4 jobs, live in cramped appartments or condo's so didn't have either time or room for gardening.... Ok, dig a bit deeper, what was the bad experience with plants???
A huge percentage had bought plants and they all died...
Keep digging... did you water them? Fertilize them? Keep bugs away for them???
Why did they die??? Turns out they tried to grow their plants indoors: They had no concept of photosynthesis!!!!
OMG. This is literally what they found.
So they started offering free, night courses on plant care, and the millenials trickled back...
As a business owner, I rarely talk social topics, I mainly talk with other business owners: The big gripe with youngens (ie under 40) is they are scared to do anything: scared to try anything. the literally can only do what school taught them: Sit there and read from a screen. They have no problem solving skills: Nada, none.
I commonly hear that it's useless trying to hire someone with the skills you need, because even if they're 'qualified' in something, they don't know it. they've passed a competency course, but they don't know the topic. I've even heard of big multinationals hiring uni grads, and tying them into 5 year contracts, because for the first 3, they are actually unproductive and a drag on the business until they get real skills and knowledge: then in years 4 and 5 they may start to earn the company profit.
And well, how the hell does small business afford to have unproductive staff for 3 years?? they can't. Hence the impossible job market ie. 13 people on welfare for every available job.
It's a shocking, shocking world we live in: It's never been more important to have parents that spend time with their kids and teach them the world: Because our schools sure as hell aren't: it's gotten that bad, I know multimillionaire business owners that will only hire kids who worked in their parents business: If their not from a small business family, they are unemployable in these guys eyes.
It's that bad out there.
I watch in horror as people take part in protests, they have no idea of the core mission of that group: A major one is sweeping the globe over the last 6 months: The core goal is to dismantle the western family unit, and return to a tribal, shared ownership economic system. Outrageous. Yet millions are out there marching, not aware of what the group their working for want.
SMH
Just protect your family.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2020, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
The talk of the US dollar losing its glitter as THE reserve currency has been out for at least the 12 to 15 years that I can recall, and yet we are no closer to its demise.

Agreed: The USA has the most open, transparent financial market of size in the world: Something China can't even begin to compare to.
The talk of China becoming THE currency is a joke, marketed by people who have no idea how the real world works.
USA would need to completely mess up it's taxation and police system to lose it's status: Something that is years and years off.
The USA remains the safest place to make money, probably second is UK. But UK has no interest in becoming a huge innovator/tech centre like USA.
It's no accident that all the biggest, most powerful, influential companies are USA founded: No where else can Apples, Facebooks, Microsofts, Googles be grown and nurtured, then celebrated. (That's an important point: Look at musk, a crazy loonie at best: A total liability at worst, but he is celebrated: Compare that to Gerry Harvey, and most Aussies can't stand the guy! But he's almost certainly smarter and safer to invest with than musk with his rampant losses and twitter tirades).
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

When you're a famous, rich 'dude', you aren't in 'wealth creation' mode AKA risk taking mode: So it's about backing only winners.
If you watch Shark Tank/Dragons Den, you'll see the 'entrepreneurs' have very little 'entrepreneur' about them: They only want to back winners, those with definite runs on the board ie. know their numbers, show growth, no terrible debt numbers or shady shareholders etc etc.
So what we have is a billionaire (who appears to have made his money in a land grab on the internet: It's just sour grapes from me) who's upset he's 'out of the loop' in regards to the government policy, and who is so biased with his 'high tech' background that he believes 'new' is the answer to all our problems.
The energy sector is in such a mess in Australia because of two reasons:A: Other than the second reason, there is no co-ordinated objectiveB: Provide guaranteed profit to those that bough the power grid (it's in the contract, they are guaranteed a profit: Look it up, it's unbelievable)
So then we have the green lobby who want renewables.... who don't realise they are being manipulated by big business to encourage the government to subsidize these big businesses if they do green stuff: But the reality is it's a total failure: Wind generators that will never offset the energy used to build them... terrible environmental impacts in far away nations to build the batteries for 'green' first world nations... solar panels that are now beginning to reach end of life in a seriously large number...... But no operation in Australia can recycle them.....
On and on it goes. It's a total cluster #$%

But it's all just total BS, because in the end, you hear countries around the world setting up 10 coal generators, or 30 or 50... or India, setting up 400!!!
Why are we destroying our own industry here when we contribute 1% of total Co2 emissions??? Which incidentally is the food for plants... Nature achieves equilibrium... It's a total circus... You have big business in EU being paid to catch and dispose of CO2 emissions... how do they do it?? they pump it into their green houses to speed up crop growth.
LOL they're getting paid to increase private profits!!!!! They are taking excessive taxes from working families to give to billion $$$ corps who pay no tax, to increase their profits. This is simply unbelievable. But it's happening, right now, all the info and evidence is right there for the taking and analysing: But the public are too focused on their own BS to look beyond their front gate.

Like I say, the whole thing is a jumbled mess, with no direction: Other than big business walking away with billions and billions of taxpayer dollars.
Pumped hydro... never heard anything so stupid in my life: Let's not only waste power pushing water up hill: Let's also tie up water, the ultimate resource... WTF, who are these idiots that believe this stuff and then put their names to it. There can only be ONE reason anyone could honestly lobby for this stuff... $$$$$$$$$

It's idiocy at it's finest. Having to generate 10kw, to pump water, to return 7kw....
You're down 3kw for no reason: For no bloody reason... so where's the benefit?
of course the company that was paid to pump the water, and then gets to sell it.
Good for the consumer?Good for industry?Good for jobs??
Total and utter BS.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 16 2020, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm totally missing something: Can anyone explain to me ELI5 (Explain to me Like I'm 5 years old) what the government gains by locking people home and collapsing the economy??
I just don't see how this 'benefits' the government.
It's for people own good, and the benefit of the health system, and society at large in terms of social and economic breakdown.
I can't do anything but shake my head at the anit-maskers.... Seriously, getting people to cover most of their face is a security nightmare: The government really doesn't want peoples ID covered, but here they are advising mask use... and the anti maskers get all emotional about it.
I now understand how the great empires through history failed, and am watching the west go through the early stages right now. Endless wars for private profit, dumbed down education system, 'everyone' is now considered a 'minority', people marching and protesting in movements they don't understand the main goal of, endless government deficits, privatisation of important, crucial utilities, celebrities with no skill or usefullness, total lack of craftmanship, even from 'skilled' trademan, total lack of quality from local and imported products, university degrees of no usefull skillset being needed to gain even entry level casual retail jobs, moaning from the people even when the government is protecting them...
it goes on and on.
**Oh well, just protect yourself and your family** it's all you can, and should aim to do.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 15 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And presents us with another reason to question why state governments exist.
This is the problem when Canberra want's to brag about GDP numbers, but states are on the hook for the health system.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 15 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Thanks mate: I often miss these things (mailing address isn't my residence, and I hate email).
Given the entire global out look, and the crazy central bank interventions: Owning more infrastructure has to be one of the smarter moves.
***I'm a buy and hold guy, not a quick buck trader type***
If you're looking for instant profits, I wouldn't know where to look.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 14 2020, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yes, an agent we become familiar with over the last two years while shopping around called us the other day: Here in Adelaide it must have a yard, and the other hot seller is the Barossa, again must have yards.
Seems the sheeple woke up: There's no need to live in crammed in apartments and or unit style housing in Australia.
Of course what it technically is, again, is a transfer of wealth: Not everyone has the time or the budget to afford properties with yards, or the travel times needed.
The real estate and housing sector are what will make or break Australia: We should have crashed the housing party years ago: But we didn't.
Now it's gonna take the banks to lend freely in a post covid world to stop the whole thing collapsing.
Is that gonna happen???
My senses say no.
Central banks pumped up with adrenaline and endless rolls of paper says otherwise.
And betting against a central bank is crazy.....
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2020, 11:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And here's the response from CLF:
CLF Response to WAM bid
I currently think this is the correct course. Anyone read into it differently?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2020, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Thanks... Seems we're on the same page.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 11:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Just catching up on my paperwork: I don't hold wam, never looked hard, but seemed too 'trendy' for me.
I see they've made a takeover play for CLF (Consolidated Leaders Fund, ex Aberdeen Leaders) I can't seem WAM's angle beyond trying to scoop up a fund with a share price < NTA's. I guess that's one way to get 'growth'.
Anyone following this one?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 10:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

ALR was renamed Consolidated Leaders Fund: No thread for CLF exists????

It's now under an attempted take over by WAM.
Seems to be deceptive from WAM complaining of new 'poorly management': When the actual people involved have managed CLF for the last 2 1/2 years.
I suspect WAM is just asset stripping ie: Buying a stock with share price<NTA to generate 'growth'.
Thoughts?


  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 09:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
I don't know why they would stop at a mere $800 billion, why not just sell the lot while they can get something useful for it.


'Cos (IMO) we've got about a decade left of this non-sense, MMT, fiat, fractional reserve, Federal Reserve Saves All, BS system.
And in the mean time, like it or not, USA is still the largest, most open, transparent capital market in the world. Something the 'current' China will never achieve.
A USA treasury is like fertilizer: You know what it is, you know where it come from, you know how it stinks, but it serves a purpose and has use.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 7 2019, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The panic from Canberra says otherwise. APRA, RBA and ScoMO all throwing fuel on the fire to keep it going, BUT!!!
The real issue is house prices have never fallen in Australia with out an external economic shock, interest rate rises, or unemployment going skyward, until 2017.
2017 was the pivoting point, 3 things all line up in late 2017:Mortgage growth died.RBA base currency growth diedOur dollar continued to slide, even without RBA increasing supply
And what happened in 2017? Housing topped.
*** Also very important to note, this was well before the royal commission was even created **** This is a good old fashioned, debt fuelled bubble bust *****

Now we have investors leading the way in arrears. All the 'bulls' myths have been blown apart.My favourite being 'theres cash on the sidelines that wont allow prices to fall'.Of course, that cash didn't exist, and the investors what would buy into a falling market have vanished.
*** Again, this was before royal commission, nothing to do with 'lending changes' *****

Even though the bulls said lending was sound, the banks admitted it wasn't and then self regulated.
We've now completed a 9 month per GDP recession. Amazing. It's barely even been in the news.

Retail figures are terrible, car sales are dire (and mostly dual cabs which are 'business purchases').
I doubt there'll be any life in the housing market for the rest of this year, and then next year when ScoMo's FHB insurance scheme fails to push prices significantly higher, the masses will realize we are half way into a multi year bear market that wont recover to 2017 prices anytime soon.
The real concern (for me) was does RBA protect the dollar and our economy, or do they protect the banks bottom line.They chose to protect the banks, with disregard to the dollar, and pin their hopes on Iron Ore keeping our dollar stable.
Fancy cutting rates as your country posts a record trade surplus... That alone is telling.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Record low interest rates will likely coincide with record low $AU.
Just a thought.
Off the back of a record trade surplus, the market all but locks in a interest rate drop to the lowest in modern history.
How stuffed is our internal economy really???
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

But there's a hidden ugliness not addressed in that article.
The two previous lot default peaks occurred under rising interest rate conditions: The first in 2008/09 preGFC when our mining boom was humming, and the second time in 2012 when interest rates were trying to revert to 'normal'... Since then rates have only fallen or remained steady.
We have falling house prices (fasted on record) yet:No interest rate rises.Stable/low unemploymentGood terms of trade
....yet the housing market is falling apart.
Why? Easy, the credit growth, it's the weakest on record. Check our currency supply, it stopped growing in 2017... Right when the housing boom peaked... Co-incident?? Of course not. It's also when the slide in the dollar got it's grove on.. Co-incident? Of course not.
In 2017 the australian view of property shifted seismically. The 'need' to take out monster debts to pay for home become a bad idea for the masses. Once the Chinese money stopped flowing, the whole market tanked. And it's not going to turn around anytime soon.
That housing is tanking so hard, without any negetive news to trigger it, is the telling sign. This is the 'new' normal. People are not expecting to make 10% per year on their properties anymore.
The real 'crash' is going to occur when our interest rate rises. I know the MSM are talking rate cuts, maybe 1 or 2, but our dollar is going to get punished, meaning we will be importing inflation. If they try QE, our dollar is going to get punished.
The only tool they have to prop our dollar is raising rates.... At some stage this is going to NEED to occur.
Wait for the MSM to start talking of our falling dollar, which will then move to talk that the RBA held the rates too low, for too long, which the public will buy/believe.
There's hell to be unleashed at some point: But I've been sprouting that for years now........
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Mar 21 2019, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Anyone going into coal stocks for a buy and hold?
The way I see it, governments around the world are running massive debts and deficits, I just can't see them transitioning over to other sources as fast as they say they will over the next 10/15 years.
Coal still produces IMO, the most reliable, cost effective source of electricity.
Have retail investors been sold a lie?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 11:11 AM


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Posts: 474

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Will dig into it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 09:04 AM


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Posts: 474

Any thoughts? I wanted to pick some up at <$2, but real life got in the way, then the dividend doubled... and now it's $2.10...
Thoughts?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And now we see the click frenzy on line.
Haven't we been here before?
How did that work out for DSE?
Jeepers, how the once mighty has fallen....

Let's see they blew up a start up by trying to be premium over bunnings cut cost presentation...
Now they have an existing, and once profitable chain and they go thermo nuclear on discounts???

Idiots.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 1 2018, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I believe very little will come from this RC. The banks may bleed a few customers, be hit with a few million dollar fines. But that's like an electrician having his phone service cut for a few days (bleed customers) and a $200 fine. Wont even feel it.
In fact, it's the time the directors needed to 'take off' to appear at the RC that probably hurt the most.
When you have a guy like Ken Henry, slumped in his chair on the stand, earning $15,000 per week (I assume he's also on other boards, so what's his real income??) treat it as a 13 year old obnoxious boy does the class teacher, then screw up his nose and say he'll never be compliant, and how would you monitor it anyway.... (This from a guy who was in charge of the tax system...funny how the tax system says it knows all...)
A total joke.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Shows the difference that inspired, enabled and capable boards/management/staff can make compared to an old boys club.
I have no sympathy for Coles or Woolies: They've had years to adapt to online: Their attempt sucks. They've had years to adapt to Aldi. Their attempt...well, did they even attempt to compete?
They've treated their customers and supply chain like scum, never evolved and wonder how these multinationals can waltz in here and roll them over and screw them.
Amazon look 10 years ahead, state what they want, then go make it happen. Investing bucket loads of $$$$$$$$. Do coles and woolies invest $$$$$, nah, they throw a bit of cashflow around, but don't build and invest. That's the real difference.

One day Amazon will be old, slow and inept. But they'll take off with billions before that happens.

  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 15 2018, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
And as an aside: "18/24 months of falling prices. ..we're ~ 6 months off a federal election..."
.... anyone might suspect the coalition would be unfussed if it loses the next election


It's amazing how quiet Canberra is on this: both sides, Labors not even beating the drum. I suspect 2 reasons:A: They know the gig is up: politically increasing prices will be suicide with voters from these levels.b: They are prepared to support the banks, not the mortgage holders. The bail in laws were passed in February, with barely any noise at all.
As for the current PM, I see him as nothing more than a nightwatchmen. Nightwatchmen: Wikipedia
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 15 2018, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

This is only just getting started.
We are over 12 months into falls now.Car sales falling for 7 months.Consumer confidence in the gutter.
And the kicker: This is the first time, EVER, Australian house prices have fallen with out central bank intervention: It is falling under it's own weight.
Now the double kicker:Understand that time on market is growing, stock on market is growing, $$$$ turnover at auction is halved.... etc. etc.
And then learn that we have just set another record for crane numbers in Australia.
1 in 10 is employed in construction..... There's a hell of a drop off in approvals and starts that's coming down the pipe line. Just as all these apartments hit the market... against 18/24 months of falling prices.
We're ~ 6months off a federal election....
None of these things will give buyers any confidence: this is the worst case scenario we could have dreamt up. Just as ~$700b of IO loans roll over, and $500m of liar loans continue to float about......
Those leveraged too hard will lose it all. Those who avoid the fall out will be part of the greatest wealth transfer in our countries history.
Hold on.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2018, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Can someone please explain what the hell "pent up demand" is???????????????
Oh these commentators infuriate me:
Of course there's demand: There's demand for Ferrari's too: But unless you can afford it, does it even count???
I'm confused about the market, here in Adelaide the last couple of places we were interested in went for way above what we expected, yet ordinary 3 bedroom, single bath places have definitely been kicked in the teeth.
I suggest this shows a frail/fragmented market. The agents tell me it means those with money are still buying and don't care about price.
I say we're still in a bubble, and the disaster is no where near unfolding fully.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 11 2018, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The greenies are really hurting their own cause here. There's no doubt pollution is a major problem, real, toxic, deadly pollution. This get's pushed aside while 'activists' run around claiming CO2 is a disaster.

If you wanna talk 'average temperature' changes, just consider a lovely spring day: It's 24 degrees in the sunlight, then if it's a cloudless night, within hours it's 8 degrees. Or if there's clouds, it's 20 degrees.
Related to CO2? Nah. (You NEVER hear them mention that the greenhouse gases has one component that's accountable for 70% of it's effect, and it's called water vapour.......)

And isn't it interesting that government weather stations are always at air ports??? And if that isn't enough, a private study in USA found a significant proportion are installed in a jet wash path :-0
CO2 is one of the most obscene theories that has gained traction. It's simply mind-blowing how smart individuals fall for this crap: But it's a well run campaign, just like the descrimination movement, if you're not 100% on board with them you're a denier.... Huh? After 100+ years of spitting CO2 into the atmosphere, has it changed? Not on a level they can even measure or prove... but if you disagree with their theory you're instantly a cave-man, capitalist pig, denier.
Blah.
No wonder the rich get richer, it's so easy to manipulate the masses.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 26 2018, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The problem with comparing the big four to Kodak and blockbuster?

Kodak and blockbuster weren't running the government (sorry, lobbying blink.gif ) and regulating their position into a monopoly.
Tell me, what other industry has the top 4 players, and their regulators and central controllers meet in the same room as the federal treasurer???

It's not normal, in any other industry, the ACCC would bust you for price collusion at the minimum. But with banks, it's expected!

Not saying the banks wont be challenged, just that I think that analysis is a little thin.

(And lets not forget CBA has a market cap twice as big as Lehmans, so buying out any little pesky competitor isn't an issue.... Oh and again, this behaviour is encouraged and blessed by the ACCC.... try doing that in other industries)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 21 2018, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Triage, what you say is mostly true. Corporates have messed with the bounds of what is considered normal or not, to push their agendas. But we should all know that right??

Anyways, I'd recommend reading: Done: The deals that change the world

As a BBC journalist, I'd seen a few of his doco's, his work is pretty trustworthy.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2018, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Not sure an RC is really needed. No doubt the sector is riddled with horror and corruption. But what good is airing the dirty laundry gonna do?

What happened to the old days of announcing a 6 month task force, and then a 7 point plan and some funding?

Trouble is, in western societies when your old and poor, no-one cares: That's one of my rich mates quotes, and a huge part of what drove him to chase wealth.

A few percent of the population are taking note of the Banking RC which shows average people being ripped off left right and centre: Are they really gonna care about the RC for old folk? Nah.

If it's liberals attempt to build some credibility, they fail.
If it's the lib's attempt to destroy their brand, they succeed.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2018, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
This unnamed American investor seems to think that the Royal Commission will have a major impact on Australian banks in that by triggering the banks to tighten lending the RC will bring about the bursting of the housing bubble.


Its interesting, this has been up for months but is now getting mentions everywhere. As for who he is:

http://www.longfordcapital.com/leadership He is chairman and MD.

Now:
A: I'd never heard of litigation finance: Blows my mind, but... I'm not surprised (https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-repli...94933&p=795 to see his real motives)
B: I would love to know who he is or planning to finance.

He's not some hot shot fund manager that has a 85% chance of failure like the rest, this mob mean business.

I'm sure we'll hear more of him in the future.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2018, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Why there is not ongoing and daily renewed outrage about what is being uncovered by the banking rc amazes me. Why the ABC (and perhaps other local MSM outlets (?)) does not think these relevations are newsworthy is so disappointing.


Sadly I'm not surprised, perhaps on the scale of things maybe. But the reason the MSM doesn't bring these to the public is pretty simple. The MSM exist to sell advertising. They need mass audiences. This is Australia, the debt fuelled property hungry monster, where 80% of all private wealth is invested in property. To alienate, or reduce faith in the banks, would be to insult your audience, and effectively cutting off the hand that feeds you.

Newspapers only exist because of the property section these days, the paper is a total loss making disaster.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some 'gentlemens' agreement about how to report on the RC, and besides, I think it's just the Australian version of the panama papers...... Once it's results are made public, within 3 or 4 months no one will remember anything about it.

Sad how an aussie can tell you who kicked how many goals in the 84 grand final, but wouldn't have a clue about their homeloan. Here's a bit of trivia, why is it that APRA said IO loans were only 40% of the market, and that's been wound back to 30%, but independent surveys of brokers report 80%....

Yeppa. No one at that RC has their house in order: But given ASIC can't regulate because APRA are in the way, and APRA say their powerless because ASIC is the regulator, this should surprise no one.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2018, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Ol' Musky..... SMH.

Ok, so to be fair, the state in which the radio show was done, HAS legalized hooch, so it's not as rebelious as first presented.

BUT, if Jobs, or Branson, was swigging back on a fine scotch..... You'd ask questions.

For the record, I'm terribly biased AGAINST any form of drug use (bit rich coming from someone who uses too many pain killers: Advance arthritis in a younger body will do that).

What needs to happen in my eyes, is a huge cap injection by a controlling interest, leaving Musk as face of company (let's face it, Telsa is fan boi driven), but his power is limited to that of a consultant.

I've said before, his multi-billion dollar competitors, haven't gone hard after pure electric vehicles, as I assume, they just can't prove a strong enough business case. Hell, Ford and GM are in enough trouble just burning pump fuel Mish Talk Blog Ford Piece.

In it's current form, Tesla is in a death spiral.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 6 2018, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep, Nippers answer looks about right. I don't know why people get hung up on 'gross' profit, especially given it excludes massive variables including labour.

For example an up class restaurant, with massive margins on food eg. a $10 steak being sold at $80, will have a great gross profit.

But the net profit (ie. bankable) will be smashed due to expensive chefs, waiters, welcoming staff, and advertising and fitout costs/renewals.

I've heard, the small business world, saying such as 'value is 4X gross profit', in which case most small, labour based businesses are worth millions.... Good luck ever getting anyone to pay those millions.

I'd rather focus on net profit, gross is interesting, but not a real key input for me.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 25 2018, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
WTF---- isn't it this guy of City down graded TLS to 2.20 after the it is under 2.80ish not long ago???
what a smart a$%SS gets everyone sell and he sneak in bought the crap himself.


Oldest trick in the book. Don't listen to what they say, study how they do it.

That's long been my complaint about banks being financial advisors: The stuff they are advising as buys is the same stuff their back end boys are off loading. Or if they know somethings on a lift, they buy it themselves, then sell near the top. That books most the profit to themselves, but makes the customer think they know what they're doing, as they own the hot stock.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 25 2018, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

New PM... Who voted X times against the royal commission....

Criminal charges being threatened left, right and centre.

Advice rip offs, fee rip offs, super annuation rip offs, falsified lending documents, on and on I could go.

Kinda reminds me of the Panama papers.....

Remember when all the rich were found to be hiding wealth off shore, evading taxes and nothing happened????

I think that's were we are.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Early birds, I agree. It's a dog act: Take their money to grow, but then burn them once you're personally wealthy beyond belief, for running a loss making machine.

Although, to be fair: The entire USA market has bogus valuations at present. Let's wait and ride the next crash out. I'm sure Tesla wont be the only company beat into oblivion.

(Is uber still private? Last I knew it too was burning cash at ridiculous rates... Interesting that you can burn cash when you don't really own any physical assets, and pay your 'workers' below minimum wage.... The whole world economy is a sham at present.)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
t seems that today's cathedrals are being built to sell mazdas and hyundais. Some of the local showrooms for car sales are massive structures of glass and glitter, gone are the days of these things being sold from actual caryards


You hit the nail on the head: Car dealerships aren't about selling cars. They're about selling loans. They are little more than a 'branded' bank. The car is just the vehicle they use to do it. I've spent over 10 years in dealerships, the highest paid guy is the finance manager. I could bang on for hours about the sick, twisted management of the auto industry. But you're comment is 100% spot on, if you check the fine print on the finance deals, they are stinky. Many have sickening balloon payments, designed so the car is worth less than the payment, making most people need to roll the balloon payment into financing a new car: Not to mention their crappy 'fixed price' service schedule ensures that the car is in need of a massive service and repairs once the cheap servicing expires. How do the neighbours afford new cars every 5 years??? This is how.

Just like almost NO_ONE is talking about the housing market collapsing due to all the interest only loans rolling over to principal and interest, no one wants to talk about how they got stitched up on car finance.

It's so bad, that when we went to buy our current car, cash, with no trade-in, we were told to go to another dealership because 'we don't do cash sales'!!!!! This is true, I actually kinda knew the salesman we ended up buying from and you want to know how much they made on it???? $184. No, I'm not missing a zero.

Ask to see the trade ins in the back yard, at your local dealership, and they'll show you dozens of modern cars traded in..... Ask them if that's all they have... Of course not, they all have yards elsewhere full of the bloody things! They can't sell them!!!! When recession hits, watch the dealers fold because:
A: Credit will dry up, and no one will be able to finance a new car
B: All the trade ins are on finance,...... They can't met their debt repayments, and fold.

I've seen it in the rural dealers, machinery especially, a bad harvest or two, and the local machinery shop fails.

So next time you drive past a massive glass front dealership, just think, if dealerships only make 5% of their profit off new car sales (this is true, new car margins are impossibly thin, as i showed).... where does the rest come from????? 55% is from parts and service (which is repeat business, so you'd expect a fair chunk of profit there)....leaving 40% of their profit.... coming from?????? Finance and after sales (ie tint, paint protection etc)....

That's how they're paying for that flashy-ness.... Not how you'd expect at all. Unless you've been on the inside and see how it really works.

When someone offers you easy, cheap credit....... Be wary, very, very, wary. There's a reason they give cheap credit, and it aint because they like you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I find it hard to imagine a world without Tesla (no, not a fan boi at all). I just find it hard to believe there wont be govco intervention. I maybe wrong.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Doesn't that all sit perfectly? ASIC didn't intervene because APRA were supposed to???

If I run my business finances in the same way a bank does, I would have to declare I'm insolvent and fold. If not, I face criminal charges/jail time.

APRA is the cloak that allows them to do as they please, completely opaquely. And appear to be well structured and regulated.

As I get older, I come to understand what the real, old rich men mean when they say that the 95% are wrong/clueless/hopeless/liars etc.

We're lead to believe, the bigger and flasher the building the more reputable and genuine the business: When it's almost the direct inverse! Banks, of course, always have spectacular buildings. Tumble down mom and pop businesses almost always provide a better outcome than their corporatized competitors (there are exceptions, but this is the rule).

The best source of all this banking shady-ness I've come across is:
"Creature From Jeckyll Island"

Well worth a read: I'm told there are pdf's of it floating around.

Sadly Triage, I don't have any faith that much will be changed. Too many rich, powerful families rely on things the way they are.

And as I just read on another forum.... house prices are falling, our Prime Minister is about to be challenged for his job again, wages are stalled/reversed, employment is highly volatile, we face a once in 3 decade recession inducing draught and what are the masses doing??????

Fighting each other at Coles over 5cent plastic mock ups of corporate branded toys.......

Why would they change anything??? The can get away with murder... or better! Charging fees to dead people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 9 2018, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Celeb endorsements are a laugh: 9 times out of 10 the celeb is actually financially broke eg: What a laugh

But, the public ie. the masses are easily triggered and manipulated with regard to celebrity.

A wise man once told me:
Poor people talk about people ie. sportsmen, models, tv stars etc.
Middle class people talk about events ie. footy, cricket, theatre
Rich people talk about ideas, ie. the next billion $$$$ concept

And that's very, very accurate I think.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Aug 8 2018, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

SMFH.

What can one say???

If I was an investor in tesla (yeah, if. I'm most certainly not), I would be out now. If he doesn't take it private from here, whats to stop the drop back to yesterdays open????

Shorting is dangerous. I stand by that.

But musk is just too erratic to be investable.

Making statements like this one, has to be borderline fraud. It's certainly market manipulation.

But watch the authorities do nothing.

Again.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 7 2018, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Sure, the property bulls have a point about needing increasing dwellings.

But they completely ignore the fact that residents per dwelling has been falling for years.

Yes, were are building faster than our population is growing.... and that was before the apartment boom.

More than 10% of all housing is un-used. But we keep building... and the 'investors' and the FOMO's kept bidding up the prices. Stupidly.

I'm currently reading the book that inspired the movie "The big short", and of course the similarities between the markets is astonishing.

The only (and I mean only, the bulls claim Australia is different to USA, I'm not seeing it) difference was the issuing of loans (I forget the full name, something negative atmortimising something) where nothing is paid. NOTHING, the interest payments just get lopped on top of the owed principal....because, you know 'housing only goes up', so when they sell they can' pay the loan in full....

Financial geniuses????? Hardly. Genius salesman??? Absolutely.

I like one line in the book, aimed at the FED: How do you make poor people who can't afford to buy property feel like they can? You make the cost of money so cheap they can't refuse.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 4 2018, 09:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I get howled down for this: But the LNP has done nothing to support the market (not the government should be involved to begin with!), but with MT being an ex-banker, and the polls on the nose, I suspect they'll let it slide, quietly wishing for it to gather pace..

So they can do the right thing: Bail outs!

Only the other day I was reading about one bloke who got a text message or warning from his app that he was over drawn by $2k..... Rings the bank, they tell him, yes we took that money... Why??? Because 2 loans come off IO, and have rolled over to P&I loans, so we take that extra $2k....

Guy has no idea this was coming... But it's ok for now he says, it's "only" $2k a month, and he has enough in the off set account to ride it out for 'a bit'... but he's worried, as a third loan is also soon to roll over to P&I...

Haha... What idiots. They are everywhere. I've seen them do this with car loans: Have no idea a balloon payment is due... Have to refinance into a new car....

Now they're doing with their houses...except they can't refinance, because of apra's changes, so they are stuffed paying P&I repayments they can't make....

I've cried wolf for years on housing. I've never doubted I was wrong, the market just has far less brain cells than I expected. I still believe housing will hit year 2000 levels + inflation (so around 1.4 times the dollar value of 2000)... So here in Adelaide that puts housing back around (give or take) around $250k....

and guess what? With median wages in adelaide of around $44 k (IIRC), that's about 4 times earnings.... bang on historic trend. That year 2000 figure plus inflation for Sydney??? Around $490k.... and again... around 4 times the average income there....

The wealth effect that drove Australia alongside the mining boom, is going to hit full reverse: And like the reverse thruster on a jet, it isn't pretty, it's messy, lots of sideways motion. But things get stopped rapidly.

You all prepared for this right?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I didn't know USA small business didn't use accountants/packages as much. No surprise there I guess given that the ATO seems to have been able to seek revenue from every possible crack in the economy.

No surprise there's been a change at the top. I thought early on it looked to be a pump and dump stock: founders/directors earning millions while no profits made, but huge loans being drawn...... Now they sell down their holdings.... I've seen this story before.

Then chuck in the new cash grabbing managers, which will simply bleed them of customers:

Xero discussion thread

It's a dangerous game, as xero had an almost cult like status amongst small business and their accountants. Destroy that, and their cost of customer acquisition will raise even higher!

And I suspect I'm not alone in seeing people leaving cloud based stuff and return to desktop, or even locally server hosted stuff. With all the telecommunication/NBN dramas, power issues, etc having your own local copy is a smart move. Never mind the privacy stuff.

I'll give this one a wide berth
  Forum: NZX

Mags
Posted on: Jul 25 2018, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Nice catch....

I'm always whinging how hard it is in small business to make any meaningful profit. Most people assume you lie. A mate of mine has just become manager of one of my main suppliers...... Turns out I'm one of his only customers with an upto date, paid up account. Most of my competitors are months behind... Yet they drive the fancy cars, fancy shop fronts etc.....

Not paying your suppliers makes your cash flow look great. Right?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 24 2018, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm no musk fan, didn't really celebrate him at his peak, but the last 12 months have been interesting to watch.

The Falcon Heavy launch was a important part of history, launching a car was a bit weak I thought, but still, that sized rocket, and re-usable??? That's awesome. (I always wanted to see a shuttle launch: When I visit USA I will see a Falcon launch)

Anyways, I'm surprised with that first news.com article, because it completely covers up Musks role in digitizing consumer spending and unleashing internet transfers.

But what we see, is someone who 'can' get stuff done, but mostly in a vaccuum (paypal, no competitors at the time) or government sponsored (I'm assuming spacex receives huge handouts). But when faced with a real, mechanical, retail based industry, with real competition, he's way out of his depth.

Billion dollar companies, that spend over a billion dollars per car, have mostly stayed out of electric vehicles, because the market is yet to be feasible. It's that simple.

Maybe tesla should have built itself like a smaller manufacturer such as Lotus: Builds beautiful cars, that do exactly what they promise, but they ring Toyota and ask for drivetrains. No point developing what someone else has.

So, should telsa have made a model three using prius running gear??? They would almost certainly be profitable, then keep pressing on with their high end full electric stuff.

A wise, wise, business lecturer once told me: No-one get's this, it's the little jobs that allow you to do the big jobs.

It's simple cashflow managment: His son was an electrician, who he banned from doing large industrial and commercial jobs until he had steady smaller consumer grade work. The cashflow of just big stuff is horrible, and brings many down.

I reckon Tesla have done exactly this: Too focused on being the first electric car mass producer.

To finish first, first you need to last. At present it's doubtful tesla will.

But, it's an american dream: USA manufacturing, making America Great.... Expect a man in a red hat to bail them out.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 23 2018, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Bloody circus.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Yea, but I want em to be wrong a little longer!
Mick


Haha, yeah, I get cha
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
so, this time it's different?


I finally got around to watching the big short, and yes of course it's a hollywood dress up.

But the thing I completely missed/forgot about, was even though the shorter's were right, the market kept pricing bonds dearer, the complete inverse of what should really be happening.

And that's been a good lesson for me: As a small investor, I often can't believe what I see going on around me. And I used to get angry, confused, question myself.

But what the market does, and logic reality are two very, very different things. So I need to embrace that me thinks.

I find my thought process is like the two young fella's in the big short:
A: Either we are wrong, and we're toast or
B: We are right, even though the market disagrees, so I'd better go in harder.

If you're right, and have the financial means to go in harder (safely), I'm gonna do that.

People dumping PM's 10 years into a Yanky bull market: It's highly likely they are WRONG.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Or it's retail investors sinking in their tax returns biggrin.gif

This BLA is intriguing. It still has fan boi's crawling out the wood work. Amazing.

Wonder if we'll ever hear what ASIC find after trawling their books.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 13 2018, 01:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Dividend cancelled.....
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 12 2018, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Absolutely coming to an end: The fact that Nestle can issue, and SELL, -ve corporate bonds tells us all we need to know.

The mega wealthy and the huge fund managers are preparing for a period of massive deflation, where they are happy to guarantee a return of most of their capital.

They're not chasing returns on capital, just the return.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 12:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm not a shorter, don't know how to: I know the principal, but never pursued it.

What the fan boi's completely get wrong about shorters, is they provide liquidity as the stock collapses: They provide the fan boi's with their chance to get out, with some cash. If shorters don't have to cover their positions the stock may literally have zero buyers.

Shorting's to dangerous for me. I see there are pieces years old talking of BLA being a fake, but it was only when a USA based mob called them on it the world took notice. There's plenty of stocks way over valued, prime for shorting, but

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Tesla should be a good short: But a mouth like Musk is always able to extract investment from some sucker: It even seems his solar city deal was dirty. But people keep financing him.

Wouldn't it be nice?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

yep, got there.

Under a tent.
By deleting 300 welds per car
By removing the final roll and stop tests.

The modern automobile is the most complex item in mass production. Tesla tried to leap frog over the billion dollar giants that have been around for a century.

I don't believe much of Musk re: Tesla, but I do believe him when he say's he's in production hell.

and that aint gonna solve itself with out a huge dose of time, money and resources..... something Telsa is burning through rapidly.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The RBA have no credibility. I'll leave it at that.

Their real goal is to maintain the wealth that the uber rich have, be damned about the rest. Same for APRA. They all know house prices are out of control.

But it doesn't matter, or concern them, they are rich, will always be rich, and no recession could seriously impact them.

That said, they've done a good job at steering our GDP figure for 25 years, even with those crazy Howard, mining boom years. But what we have now is the most outrageously distorted economy you can imagine.

At one end, the 80% are worse off than 10 years ago. Wages haven't risen in real terms for 7 years, cost of living is rising at a multiple of CPI (thanks to regulation and monopolies further enriching the rich), while at the other end, the 5% are feeling the best they have ever: Booming stock markets, rampant asset price growth (art, cars, property etc).

We have average house prices in some cities of $1m, while the minimum wage is $18 p/h.....

Again, this doesn't really matter.... The real concern is the private debt. It's astronomical, and mostly all backed by the same damn asset class, which itself is way over valued.

If a company CEO ramped up asset prices in his company, then bumped up the share price, to bump up the line of credit.... well, there would be head scratching and questioning going on (see blue sky for example).... But here we have banks, over valuing property, to lend out more, to bump up property, to over value, to lend out more.... around and around.

We're now seeing what effect the chinese, and other foreign cash, and the IO loans the banks were issuing on Syd and Melb housing had.... Of course with out it the prices are falling: Have to laugh at the 4.5% report, it's far more than that is the upper high end.

Check out one of my favourite clips of all time: Ben Benanke saying that loan security price falls aren't a problem : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5A4Gw20dcw

Haha. The RBA like to think they are in control. Really, the market is in control. Some times it complies with their wishes, some times it wont.

All I know is, be as debt free as you can when this crash hits, as no one (outside of the Irish) in living memory will be able to say they've lived through this before.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 11:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Interesting.

Kinda like how the super fund managers never report the franking credits the members earned........
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 29 2018, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Interesting.

I know here in Adelaide (as we're looking) all the agents are complaining "no stock". Then they spin BS about it being a tight market, and you'll have to bid/pay lots.... I call BS, and think it's people getting valuations....and holding off.

Went to an auction the other Sat. Guidance was $550k, talk was $600k. Yeah, right.
I made bet with wife, first bid $420k... I was spot on.
Passed in at $480k...

Sold sign up by end of day, I guess $500k would have done it.

A full 10% off what the guidance was.
And ~20% off what 'the talk' was.

There were plenty of stunned faces at $480k... But them's the brakes.

And now with Turnbull not putting anything in the budget to prop it back up..... is this the final leg before the real crash????

It could be this time: But hell, I've call wolf so many times now.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 26 2018, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It's been a nice ride. I got on board around $50 on the way down, went in on the capital raising at ~$26 IIRC.

Doesn't seem to have got it's hands too dirty in the RC so far.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 26 2018, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Oh boy, the stink should have been dispersing by now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 25 2018, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

While I agree the banks have no concept of PR, this is mostly the Conveyancers fault. Most likely way to hack emails is:
A: Weak passwords
B: Vulnerable email client
C: Vulnerable OS

And finally that PEXA system should have 2 factor authentication. (I tell everyone to 2FA everything, personal, business or corporate) Yes it's a hassle.

If this occurred to me, the conveyancer would be in for a hell of a time until he/she made right on the missing money: Ensuring I don't lose out on my deposit, and any other costs created.

Let's not forget: The reason a conveyancer is used is to PROTECT your money.... Clearly a fail here.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

100% agree: At some stage fundamentals will completely over-ride any power the RBA has.

We already see the spread between RBA rate and retail rates being the largest that I'm ever aware of.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

What a shocker this has been: I was never involved.

But I see/hear commentary running around, that this 'kind' of behaviour (massively overstating off market asset values) in lurking throughout the Superannuation industry.

YIKES!
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 15 2018, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yes, you're correct.

We are at an interesting time: The big corporate, well managed companies are making good profits. Interest rates are somewhat stable, and most companies have conservative debt.

Yet the workforce are in debt to their eyeballs, the are working longer hours, and here in Aust, haven't seen a real pay increase (above real CPI that is) since 2010. Yet, when they ask for a rise, are told to look at the application pile on the table, or that careful what you wish for, automation is coming, your job will go if you get too expensive.

So, of course share buybacks are a thing. With a slowing global economy, where else would you invest? You're not gonna tie it up in some low paying bond or term deposit. Let's get some more of our own rapidly increasing stock (never mind the stock markets are in bubble territory). It makes shareholder value appear to increase, and the bonuses roll in for the exec's.

I would hate to be part of the crowd that staked their future as life long corporate types, fighting their way up the ladder. It's a blood bath in these big companies.

Will tax cuts help employment? I can't believe what I'm about to say, but no. I think we'd be better off getting some governments (at all levels) that have a plan and can instill confidence in small business and the consumer.

Then we might look at hiring. Until then, we're all just preserving capital.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

For the record, I expect prices to hit year 2000 prices, adjusted for inflation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Can you explain pent up demand? or Underlying demand??

When ever I hear these terms I screw up my nose.... It's like your mate saying he pays for her company.... No, she's a hooker...

Is there demand or not?
Is it FINANCED or not????

Hell, almost every red blooded male want's a Ferrari: Is that pent up or underlying demand????

It means, FA, because it's not financed.

This economy, locally, domestically, internationally is completely screwed up.

There is no relationship between, price and earning, value and price, risk and reward.

It's a disaster out there.

Chasing return on capital??? These days I'm looking first at return of capital. These bubbles bursting are going to be epic.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
I am confused where to go


I'm on the same page as you Mark, but my big belief, is that this inequality is the real risk, the real threat to the stability we enjoy/exist through.

I read an article the other day: Bezos's wealth has been increasing at a rate of USD$257 million.... per day.
A warehouse (sorry... fulfilment centre) worker at amazon earns in one year, the same as Bezos does, but in 11 seconds.

We hear stories of workers collapsing from exhaustion in these fulfilment centres: They don't have time for toilet breaks: They wear incontinence pads. They work the wrong side of the modern 40 hour week... They then get taxed on their income, and pay stamp/vat taxes when they spend it.

Mean while Amazon pays nothing in taxes: Or even worse, bribes the government, while bragging they don't pay taxes: See Mishtalk Blog Piece

There's 550,000 reasons (staff) that Bezos should be worried.

This is obscene. I pick on Amazon because it's in the news, and the numbers come to mind: But the big boys are all the same:

Walmart employees receive some $6billion in welfare handouts as their wages are so poor: So who's sponging off the government?
The workers?
Or Walmart???

When you step back and ask "If walmart aren't paying their workers enough for a basic living... surely it's Walmart that's the sponge???"

Terrorism, religion, credit crunches, solar flares... etc.... These don't worry me near what this inequality does. Stock markets boom and bust, houses rise and fall... but if we see a mass uprising from this inequality, who knows what will happen.

But sadly, the bad men also rule the military........
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I agree Mick.

Here in SA, anything other than one's self is classed as a vehicle.

So skateboard
bicycle
trolley
pram
etc.

So attend a social gathering at a public space, drink three beers and push the pram to the car..... Yep, you can be done for DUI, and lose demerit points on your car license.

It's this behaviour that is inducing anxiety and reducing consumer confidence...

But we are told it's terrorism and bad actors causing the trouble....

It's a sick, sick world.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 11:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

No. I operate with in all guidelines and boundaries.

I was trying to make a statement about the size of the 'monster' fine. I operate under a couple of different government departments, and some of them have fines that are multiples of yearly profit. Basically, many small businesses can be wiped out if they get hit with fines, regardless of intentional or not. Where as here we have a corporate Goliath that gets hit with a whopper...but it's barely even going to be felt.

Hell, think of it this way: With the average savings rate of Australian's where it is, a regular speeding fine is probably more days 'profit' than what CBA are facing.......
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It's about 30 trading days profit. If the 'big fines' my business had to worry about was only 30 trading days profit... Oh my.

The scale of the size of the banks is completely being forgotten here. That fine isn't even a nasty quarter, it's just a bump that will disappear.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 30 2018, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yep, just read a few of Blue Orca's tweets... I reckon their on the money again.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: May 29 2018, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I don't have access to her twitter... but it seems I don't really need to... It's not worth following smile.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 28 2018, 09:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

My thoughts haven't changed.

Mucky.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 25 2018, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Well that was a surprise /S

Colossal waste of shareholder capital.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 25 2018, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Who knows???

the link between fundamentals and valuations is completely wrecked, right around the globe. $20 Trillion of asset purchases by central banks 'printing' money into existence will do that.

All the central banks have done is worked out that morphine makes the situation appear better. Without fixing the real issue.

I know, I know, I sound like every other 'broken record' out there. This can't end well.

I look at Japan, with BOJ owning damn near everything... with printed money.... What's gonna happen when the masses realise that fiat currency really is nothing. That their entire bond market and stock market have a value of 'nothing' because, that's what was used to buy it.

Well, of course, you'll get the grandest economic reset in living memory, and possibly in history. You'll see asset prices crumble, entire industries wiped out. Generations of wealth destroyed.

And then reality will hit: How to rebuild a society that has no idea of what capital and labour are really worth.

To me, this is the greatest issue facing the globe: This mis pricing of labour and capital, means we have entire generations that have no idea of capital or labour, how to value it and how to allocate it.

Just look internally at Australia: We see nurses, police officers, firemen, teachers, tradesmen of all walks, etc leaving their field of expertise and plough head first into 'property investment/development/renovations' because the believe they can make fast money: And why is the money there? Because the economic system the central banks have built values property as the ultimate security and will lend ungodly amounts for/against it:

Seriously, when it takes 30 year mortgages to buy average houses on average wages, at historic low interest rates, all sense of value is lost. The cost of goods to build a house has never been cheaper: General labourers (some skilled even) has never been cheaper: Yet the finished product is valued ridiculously high... Why? Because all the printed money is funnelled into property.

Traditional single income families used to pay 3 or 4 times annual income for their residence: In Sydney this figure is out of control, some suburbs it's pushing 30 times.... A ten fold increase in the 'value' of the asset. This is insane.

I just shake my head at what I see people around me do: I have customers who have $150 p/w for all their living expenses because the rest is spent on 'owning their own home'.... I don't have the heart to tell them, it's not their home, it probably never will be 'their home' and that you're not really paying off the home, you're just making bank profits.

We see the Faang's in USA valued almost $trillion each.... Hundreds of multiples of profit... If they make a profit... yet paying no tax.... creating machines to do away with humans, and their machines are doing stuff they can't control, except for the on/off switch. (Read Done by Jaques Peretti).

I just shake my head at what I see.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 06:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Dangerous game shorting the aussie banks. Many have tried and got burnt. There will come a time when it's due though.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 06:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

@ Early Birds, sorry, wasn't a personal attack at all. Just an observation. Tpg are a nibble well run machine: They wouldn't be throwing cash away with out knowing their numbers: Where as TLS... Well, you know my thoughts on their systems, and by implication their numbers.

I often find the obvious question isn't the question that needs to be asked.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
my question is if TPG gose as aggressive as the article point out then what is cash burn rate for them???
short TPM /long TLS at their current price??


TPG is a tight ship. I think you maybe asking the wrong question here. Rephase it as "What percentage of customers leave TPG due to frustration? How many customers leave telstra because of frustration?"

Ah, and there we have it: TPG just has to entice people over, and they are unlikely to leave:
Telstra on the other hand.... One of the most hated organisations to deal with. Their customer service machine is broken: I'm not talking staff, the staff are generally very good, but the systems, CRM, Billing etc that Telstra use are out dated, broken, unreliable, junk.

But those shareholder reports stop management from investing... One presumes.

Where as a tight run player like TPG, forged in the retail market (vs. Telstra when it was a monopoly) see's two total different approaches to business: One chases profit for the sake of it, the other chases satisfied customers that deliver profit.

A six month burn to get a customer that is likely to be with you for the next 5 or so years until 5g is replaced??? I think it's a safe move on TPG's side.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

While we can bang on about how crazy these banks have been: (But didn't we already know it? With private debt hitting 200% GDP and mortgage debt some 1.6XGDP????)

But their size is huge: Huge, even in global terms.

Lehman Bros (you know, the ones that nearly collapsed the global economy when they failed) had a peak market cap of US$60b.

CBA? AU$125b (US$94billion)

I don't expect a whole lot of repercussions from their behaviour. A few million dollar fines maybe, but nothing they can't earn before lunch on Tuesday.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 19 2018, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yes, I agree, there's either nasty drops coming to our dollar or the RBA starts hiking, at the expense of small business and mortgage holders.

My mate follows this area heavily, and Australia is a capital importing country. We need foreign capital to operate. Just consider how much of the ASX, the property and ag sector are foreign owned... It's immense.

To attract that investment and capital, our rates traditionally are significantly higher than USA, the benchmark, being the world currency.

Now the reason to send cash to Australia is deminishing... What will the risk profile do if we have a change of federal government? For the first time in a long time, we do NOT have a METOO opposition, the opposition stance on personal tax cuts, -ge gearing, and business tax cuts are very, very different from the current bunch.

It's an interesting time to be alive, and I'm sure in years to come, many lessons from the last 10 years will be learnt.

With terrible private debt, three unaligned levels of government, a banking sector being exposed as thieves, unstable business and employment environments, it's hard to argue that Australia isn't horribly exposed to any shock that will trigger economic chaos.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: May 17 2018, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Why the hell do these damn wine monkeys keep doing this to themselves?????
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
the golden day of our 4 big banks are over.


Part of me says you're correct, but there's another part that says : Nah

It's a bit of a laugh: Years ago, some researchers in USA come out and said that the most profitable sector in the world is : Australian Banks.

And yet, last night I watched, laughed and cried at the four corners story on HSBC. Offices in over 100 countries, it's truly a global bank, so big that when the USA wanted to prosecute, UK government steps in and stops it, for 'global stability'..

HSBC makes ~$20 billion profit: Globally.

And here's our little banks putting up huge numbers, but in an economy that's minuscule.... Is it any wonder our private debt is out of control.

I'm not sure what will come out of the royal commission, it almost hinges on the up coming federal election: Turnbull will want the commission, shut down and quietly pushed aside, Shorten will want to continue, and broaden it's scope. What 'recommendations' are made, who knows, and what will be implemented, who knows and then again, what will be enforced????

These banks are so massive, they can continue to do what they like. No politician with a future post politics in mind will come down hard on the banks: We all know they have the nicest paying consulting jobs and offices. never bite the hand that feeds you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

At what point is it worth buying in? (For me, never thanks)

Until completely independent guys get in there and sort the books out, it's a gamble: I would think you may be better off at the pokies with their 97% payback rate: At least you get free tea and coffee!

It appears there's a whole host of shady/grey/questionable shadow funding from wealth advisers, secret property deals with ex-directors etc...

Sounds mucky.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

And yet TPG can go full boar into 5G and lay it's own fibre network in profitable CBD areas. (I seen an interview with IIRC Trigubuff, being asked if he was worried about TPG's falling market share at present, his response was no.... Customers are moving to NBN, but that's junk compared to 5G, we know they will be back for faster, cheaper connections in the near future).

So what we have is TLS still operating as if it was the monopoly operator.

It's gonna take an epic change to turn it from a slow dinosaur to an entre/intrepreneur. Can be done but difficult.

I've had way more than my capital back in dividends. So with GCT tax (actually better check what I bought them at), there's no urgency to sell, especially with nothing screaming "buy me".

***Disclaimer, I have a contact who is heavily involved in telco infrastructure, 5G is the real deal, it is as good as we are being lead to believe**** Unlike NBN, which is a completely failure according to several friends who've moved over to it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 7 2018, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Surely they are not accruing fees on $763m of undrawn debt?


Wont remain undrawn for long.....

That's if they make the end of financial year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 7 2018, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

She's stuffed. All smoke and mirrors.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

My thoughts are if management was so sure that Glaucus was incorrect, then at any price under say $10 it's a no brainer buy.

Except here we are, down in the $3's, and management have only thrown a few $10's of thousands of dollars at it.

I would want a better explanation of their models, and especially the property stuff, before I invest my hard earned.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 23 2018, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Who wants to help write the film???? (Loosely based on real events of course... don't want to end up in trouble do we??)

Would be a cracker.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 05:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Amazing.

I listened to the Alan Kohler interview. Can't say much without get dangerously close to libel.... But, there was no confidence inducing information. Just twisted, confusing drivel. I seriously expected far better.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Still getting beat. And following the play book: Blaming Glaucus for the lack of opportunity moving forward....
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 06:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Lots of director buying today: What's the rules regarding that?

Why did they allow it to loose half it's value before buying in??

More questions than answers on this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Round 3 about to commence:

Anyone got any comments on what the institutionals are doing?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 5 2018, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm watching it over here: https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&ver...LA&src=ctag

but I haven't been able to locate the Glaucus rebuttal.... I've never seen anything like this. This is fascinating.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 5 2018, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Oooooooo...... Now this is gonna be a fun little display. $11 million for a portapotty gig? In Adelaide??? Yes, we are the festival state, but you'd need a monopoly to justify that one would think... and the portapotty industry is far from a monopoly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm not a holder, so with that out the way:

Glaucus Research isn't someone I'm familiar with, but a quick scan reveals they are sharp, and know what they're doing. You don't dropped a $2.5 billion dollar bomb like they did without being confident. BLA will probably survive, but there's gonna be a lot of carnage, and I suspect the fall out, will spread right out over the entire Australian LIC industry.

One of the LIC's I do have money in has been worrying me the last few years as they do more and more off market deals, and hold more and more asset's off market: I'd never heard of Glaucus Research model, but it's brilliant, and opens any operator up to the same weakness that they say BLA are guilty of.

There will be fall out from this, and not just to BLA.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Argo is my largest holding. I just DRP.

So sick of money in the bank earning nothing, while looking at markets that don't seem to be justified.

Gonna have to put my thinking cap on for this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 04:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Any takers on the SPP?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 9 2018, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I think we're going deeper into franchise models! eek!

Banks will often lend to a franchisee, not a self branded business.

Many industries just have too smaller margins to enable corporates to run expanding shop fronts. ie. Could RFG afford to pay a competitive 'managers' salary in each of it's stores, say $70k? Of course not. So they franchise it out, someone who works super hard and runs a tight ship might make $70k or more. But an average manager, doing average 35hrs a week... Never could they do it.

And of course, what's the global trend? More franchising.

You can try fighting the trend..... but the trend is usually your friend.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 1 2018, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Always amazes me how fast the value falls out of a stock: I guess that's a reflection of most human's having an optimistic outlook.

I sure as hell don't :/
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 27 2018, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

As much as I hate to say it: It's the big corporations abusing their power. They come here, pay no tax, and here's the kicker, get the working class/tax payer to pay for the infrastructure to make their profits.

The NBN is the best example of this: Why is the taxpayer/consumer forced to pay for NBN when it's the FANGS making all the bloody money, while paying no tax. It's outrageous.

As for KGN.... Not something I'd touch.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 22 2018, 08:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
<h1 class="story-headline">Wesfarmers first half profit plunges 87 per cent as Bunnings UK losses accelerate</h1>


News.com.au article

Target and UK dreams doing their damage.

Dunno what they're doing with target. Seems they make Kmart cheap at the expense of target, and now want to rebuild target....except Kmart has cannibalised their market ohmy.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Ah, that's better, not great, but at least possible I suppose wacko.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm trying to get my head around the fact they had an operating loss of $25million for the year.

Like.... Seriously... How??? Do they understand that sum of money???? Branson started Virgin Blue with $10m, and there's a whole lot of capital tied up there. Isn't MEA just a franchise model???? They own no stock, they are agents. A few leases offices, some printing, a web site host/management team, and a few directors.... Where's that money gone?

Just stinky actions all round I suspect.

But I'm sure a few people have made of with millions outta this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 15 2018, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Well there ya go.... Was wondering where all that profit from the IPO went.... I think we now know.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 6 2018, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The contract with Aberdeen s finishing up, and management will be internalized.

Also a name change looks to be coming up.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 6 2018, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
WESFARMERS — Bunnings’ expansion across the UK is in doubt after parent company Wesfarmers was forced into $1.3 billion in first-half writedowns, due mostly to the poor performance of its British hardware venture.


News.com.au Finance

Who woulda thought??? Another Aussie company fails with it's foreign dreams.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jan 30 2018, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Again not that anyone cares as the lower 80% are less than 10% of the actual economy in any economic sense.


And here is the problem, the 80% have no voice, no power, no assets, no wealth, nothing. It's a bad novel, in real life.

QUOTE
I would and will be happy to miss a LOT of the pain which is surely going to come. Being NOT invested somewhere for too long .... somehow and one misses the appreciation.


And this is where I'm at...been since 2008ish, topped up a few bits and pieces, but by and large held my holdings but never added.....

So in the case of another GFC type event, will likely look genius, but so far, looks pretty stupid (but I'm comfortable in the knowledge a 75% market drop would barely effect my lifestyle)

The one worry I do have, is if Fed/RBA go on a buying spree with the next downturn. That changes everything. EVERYTHING.

And the precedent is there, BOJ are showing the way. How much of the bond and Nikkei do they own now??? It's frightening.

Of course having the central bank, buying and propping up 'asset' prices is the ultimate aim of every sociopath. Create business/asset, float on market, receive many times startup capital, all the real cash in the sociopath's pocket, while the people (tax payers) are on the hook to pay for said 'asset' with interest.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

...and then we look at the other end of the spectrum, a socialist nation like Venezuela..... they end up with 80% under the poverty line
..hang on look at the 'capitalist' poster boy, USA......they end up with 80% under the poverty line......

I've said before, and I'll re-commit to it: Inequality is the great issue facing society as we know it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Mark, didn't read word for word, but I get exactly where you're coming from. Someone once told me the concept of capitalism is to get the money from your pocket and transfer it to mine. This only works when everyone is able to get some money, as you show, in the USA, the money is going up the chain, never across or down, only up.

Yes, you're right. The 1% are absolutely feasting. Gorging themselves.

And for what? I don't really know. I know several very wealthy people, who worked and created their wealth, and they all say once the house is paid for, the nice cars paid for, the holidays paid for.... why keep working to death??? Spend time with family, friends, hell give time to the community... Once you have billions, really, why would you want to seek more, especially when it is MEASURABLY harming those below you??

I could go on for hours, I know several USA citizens, and their attitudes come off bizarre. So proud and passionate of capitalism, yet nervous and untrusting....

Humans can be brilliant, but we're also very, very evil.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Make website responsive, ie mobile friendly
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I didn't see the piece, but have no doubt he's selling snake oil.

Let's see.... Who has a bank loan where it's no direct debit.........

Really? You get an invoice in 'the mail', and pay by a due date???? Lies, I suspect.

And at $55million, and 200 properties, that works out at 'equity' of $275k per property....... Sounds a lot, like a lot. I love these people and their 'net' positions. They never calculate a true 'net' position. How much CGT will be be up for??? How many early termination fees??? How much REA fees??? 200 X $20K = $4 million..... Ha, he will blow 10% of his 'net' position JUST on agent fees when he liquidates....

No doubt he's depreciated the living daylights out of his properties, which makes the CGT implications HUGE....

These days I don't know how I feel about it all.... I tried to save the world from stupid -ve gearing mistakes (it is a genuine strategy, but the money is made on the initial purchase, you can't buy in a bubble and expect to make money)... But no one want's to listen.

I always come back to asking how would packer (or other rich bloke) behave.... Imagine this conversation with the accountant:
Acct: Good and bad new sir
Packer: Bad first
Acct: We lost money on that new casino for the year
Packer: f'ing what...
Acct: now the good sir, you get a nice tax credit (fake smile)
Packer: someone's getting boned for this f up.......


Chasing a tax credit via loosing money, in the hope that a commodity will rise in value.... bloody dangerous.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 18 2017, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yes, it's a shocking (and I mean, it should shock anyone that learns about it) position that the USA (well, the west in general) have gotten themselves into. Reading into the detail of the latest 'tax reform' from Trump and the team..... I can't even put into words how one sided the reforms are. The evidence that they don't benefit the masses is shown by the massive ramp up in stock by backs since it was announced... Tax cuts are being pumped back into already wealthy (compared to the 95%) shareholders... Not new jobs, not innovation, not R&D... Just "wealth creation"

Wealth creation itself is in a weird place now, as like a parasite can only thrive on a healthy host, I see the masses (here in Aus also, I deal with them in retail and service) and they are reaching the end of their ability to borrow... Sustainability dropped off quite some years ago, we are just living on credit cards, hoping it will come good of it's own ability.

It is amazing that the masses have allowed this to occur, right under their noses, right after the most prosperous time in the last 100 years. Most of the masses are connected to non-MSM, but they have failed to hold their governments to account, and allowed them to destroy the current and future generations through unbelievable tax and economic 'reforms'.

I honestly believe, inequality in the west is the biggest threat to modern society. And it's at all levels, from small business owners risking everything, but earning nothing, to multi-kid families living nicely on welfare, to working families trying to keep afloat etc. etc. How a reset, or redistribution of the wealth will occur, and when, I can't tell, but troubling times are certainly ahead.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 24 2017, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

How hypocritical of these mongrels to 'advise' their suppliers that by using Amazon they risk being cannibalized...when that's all WOW, HN, JB, Ebay et al. have done to their competition.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
take back control of the listed real estate flop.


Lol define flop.

If you mean IPO for over $100m, but only inject $8m (IIRC) back into the working capital, watch the price collapse 75%, to buy it back, then it hardly is a fail is it?????

I'm not saying this was planned, but the original stake holders are gonna walk out with a huge profit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

All Scary isn't it: Mark I tried to pm you last week, but it seems I can't these days.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Your post high lights why interest rates can not be used to control the economy properly (does an economy need controlling?.......)

I see it from a business owners point of view, but the same rules apply to citizens.

I see big, established, powerful businesses accessing cheap finance to expand, grabbing market share, or investing in lowering their cost of production. While I see small businesses using debt just to keep doors open.

Wealthy people are gearing up in real estate, shares etc, while the middle and poor are expanding their credit cards or personal debts.. or worse redrawing the mortgage for living costs..

But when you work in a nice office surrounded by well paid academics, you have no idea of this. You don't see the horror of a surprise power bill, or the car breaking down, or the shower leaking.

Wealth gap to intensify: That's scary, but if/when we have our housing bust, this is sure to occur. Then the taxpayer balance sheet will get destroyed by bank and industry bail outs...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 11 2017, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

What you describe, is pretty much what I understand to be going on. My sister lived/stayed in USA for a few months a couple years ago. She stayed in cheap/nasty hotels at times, and via a friends family, got to live on Central park in a $20k per month apartment. So she seen the bad, and the unbelievable.

Sadly, I'm torn, I hate that welfare takes off the 'middle class', not that USA has a middle anymore. In Australia, I see myself and my small business mates, work like slaves, to get over the line for GST payments, income tax payments etc. While those in low socio-economic areas, refuse to work and enjoy life: Is it a life I would enjoy? NO, but why am I busting my nut to pay taxes for it....

Then we get to the big multinationals and their tax evasion. Again, torn. Part of me says our tax rate is too high, and of course they'll move off shore.

But then I look at stuff like NBN, and ask why is the middle class paying $100b for this, when it will be the FAANGS that make the money off it, and again, they pay no tax. It's literally the middle and poor paying the infrastructure off for the rich.

I read somewhere (not sure if it was Australian or global) but they were saying financial inequality is the worst it's been since 1902. And I'd believe that. I have a very conservative father, who was self employed, worked 7 days for ever, but has built a very nice retirement. But even he has no clue of the inequality, he lives in a small rural town, cost of living is low, no traffic, great vege/fruit garden, own water supply, amazing solar panel set up... and he tells me "you need to earn $100k per year to live"... But Dad, no one is earning $100k. Here in SA the median is back under $40k pa IIRC. Again, I believe that, myself, and some mates have our own businesses where we are often required by surprise, ie. we work in the repair industries.... and people often have to hit the credit card, or wait to the next pay day just for a few bucks spare, or even worse, release some super......

Where or when this trajectory ends, I don't know, but I stand by my call, that inequality is the biggest threat to many nations stability. Not terrorism, global warming, external wars..nope, inequality.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 10 2017, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yeah, and there's one point you missed: Overbuilt malls. I've seen reports that 1 in 4 malls (or shopping centres as we call them) will be closed in USA by 2030.

https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/program/abandoned

It's already happening.

Of course, the small time analyst gets on TV and says 'consumer confidence is a bit weak, but we envisage that coming back over xmas, increasing jobs and further creating confidence" blah, blah, blah.

What he doesn't understand (or if he does, he's doing well to hide it) is that the consumers are tapped out on debt. Tapped out. The figures from ABS support that.

I've only just recently learnt about Wikipedia link and his law of rent, which is clearly in practice.

I work in a service/retail industry, and over the last 30 years there have been huge gains in efficiency, but our wages and profits are the worst they've ever been. Surely you'd think, if you can deliver the same thing to the customer, more efficiently, and for a cheaper cost to the business, then your profits should be increased.... This is something I've asked my dad for years and years, basically, we're doing this better, we're doing it cheaper, where's my bloody cheese!

And Ricardo got it right.

So if your consumers are tapped out on debt (and I see it nearly every day, it goes on credit, or worse they draw down on the home loan, or even worse they release some superannuation) but all the profits have gone to landlords, but the businesses no longer have profits... Well then the land lord finally takes the knife himself.... As is happening with your boarded up shops, closed malls etc.

Amazon's an easy scape goat, but the truth is, online retail is still by and far a small chunk of overall retail.

I'm not saying retail is easy, far from, but I feel many retailers forget it's not 2005, credit and wealth effect are not in full swing, and we don't want to spend money, just because we have money to spend.

Of course it mostly comes back to debt, probably the most abused concept on earth. Borrowing from the future to pay for today, it's plain dangerous, and should only be used for a handful of things....

Einstein knew the truth about compound interest, why don't our kids get taught it at school????.... Don't get me started SMH.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 10 2017, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I believe what's happening over there will happen, and is happening all over the west. Welfare cuts and taxes increase for the masses, while tax cuts, breaks and incentives, along with government infrastructure jobs for the rich.

Dealing with front line retail, I can tell you people are having their family tax benefits and other welfare cut, but I haven't seen even one piece in the media about it. I do read a little bit about the aged care cuts, workcover, newstart cuts etc. Dig deeper and you find that over the coming years are tax cuts for companies etc.

The old saying of bread and circus's rings true. SSM, dual citizenship, blah, blah.

I see a day, not too distant TBH, where the inequality that's building in the west becomes a real threat to nations stability.

What makes me the angriest about it all is that government show NO restraint or even attempt to get value for money on their contract spending. I understand the budgets are terrible, but don't just cut the welfare to the people who are funding it, bloody well stop wasting money on infrastructure jobs that your mates are getting rich out of.

end rant
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 9 2017, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It's a total circus.

And I believe this is the final nail in Turnbull's disaster that's known as Prime Minister-ship.

All I can do is SMH.

Of all the issues facing the country, they blast us with SSM and dual citizenship racket...... Well, you know the people get the government they deserve.

Australian's.... You seem to have deserved a stinker.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 9 2017, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Correct re: China capital flow and property prices.

One only has to look at local credit growth figures. All are in the toilet, except mortgage debt, and that is growing way, way, way slower than the 10/15/20% pa. price growth rates in Syd/Melb.

Don't believe the hype that things are all ok in Australia, things are dire, but it's a market, and the prices are set by the fringes ie. a few transactions are used as a 'reading' of the health of the system.... Dig below that...ouch.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 7 2017, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Sure has been fun watching this one hasn't it.

Look, it's a capitalist economy, people can do what they like, and I respect the guy for his achievements, but this has really been a smelly dog hasn't it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 2 2017, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I'm not calling the bust yet. Been caught to often over the last 15 years thumbdown.gif

But that Bloomberg article talking about the population moving north, is certainly also seen here in Adelaide, franchise and business sellers are targeting Sydney, as people are looking to get out, they fall for the idea that housing is 1/3 of the cost in Adelaide, therefore they will be far better off.

What they aren't told is our road network is broken, our health system is buckling, our schools are gang training and our citizens are the southern hemisphere version of their detroit counter parts: Good luck running a profitable, let alone thriving business here.

I honestly believe this housing/wealth inequality that's brewing is the biggest threat to Australia's stability. We are now on our 5th prime minister (6 if you include rudd twice) who have brushed off rising prices as acceptable, even encouraged.

All I know, is if it isn't addressed politically, it will be addressed financially, neither will be pretty, and for those who have borrowed multiples, while on average incomes with no ability to increase their earning power (all but a few great entrepreneurs have that ability anyway) will be caught.

Oh well, not like we haven't been screaming from the roof tops for years. They were warned.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
You have a housing bubble if your economy sputters, you have a housing bubble if you reduce immigration.


Our economy isn't sputtering?? Ask the 97% of business which are small if they are sputtering....

As for relying on immigration to keep house prices firm/rising...... If you need new entrants to keep prices firm/rising/return a profit for earlier investors...
then...
its...
a....
classic.......
ponzi scheme..

Ooops. Can't be telling the truth like that.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

@Triage,
Yeah, so it was the old Chrysler factory, aka Le Cornu, that they've bought. 2km from the CBD. In a very badly performing state, in it's major capital.

But, there's a few quirks of that area.

1: That south corner just out of the CBD has some of the most expensive real estate in Adelaide, ie. It's close to lots of easy spending women
2: Just a few KM to the north is the brompton development. Mass, high rise, hi density, low cost living... Which will certainly turn into a ghetto. Fools and their money are easily parted.
3: Even closer is the Coke factory which is shutting down this month (along with GM holden). And the factory, amazingly (/sarcasm) has been zoned for residential.
4: It's on 'Anzaz Highway", the main 3 lane passage from 'glamourous glenelg' to the CBD, so lots of easy spending money passing by twice a day.

So they may not have to rely purely on stealing market share, as plenty of new potential clients will be moving within close distance of that area. And there is plenty of parking, something westfield dont get

And again, I restate it. These foreign companies do something aussies just don't: They give me a reason to go to THAT particular shop. That's aldi's special weapon, 'special buys'..... There's no promise on availability, or rain-checks, it's simply get it while it's hot. I almost guarantee aldi do not invest any time or resources into finding special buys, it would be manufacturers and wholesalers banging on their door to sell over stocked goods.... so give up a bit of floor space, and watch sales increase...

Compared to "cordial for $1.73, down from $1.90. Down down! and staying down!" ...seriously, wtf.... You just told us in your own advertising your were ripping us off... and now you want our trust in that prices are staying down???? blah.... idiots.

When costco came to adelaide, they had reps, walk the whole metro area it seems, into every business, months before opening. I watched and studied the guy who came to my business, and he was polished if you knew what to look for. Serious dollars had been spent in preparing these guys, and I bet, costco were profitable for day one once open. Hell they even had 'tours' of the facilities during construction..... Imagine coles or woolies 'come and look at our store as we build it"... Ha, yeah right.

Again: What reason do I have to see coles or woolies??? friggin none. and they wonder why sales are stalled. idiots.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 27 2017, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Thanks Mark,
email notifications have been going to spam, so I've missed the last few updates. I'll check them out.

As for the wage, poverty, inequality thing, I can only imagine what it's like in the USA, I'm surrounded by guys who have not seen a REAL wage increase in 10+ years. I actually had on tradie almost cry when he told me, he found a pay slip from 2001, he now earns $1p/h more......

Two factors at play here, one is time, the other is inflation. Time flies by so fast for most humans, they actively forget about it. Is it friday already? Is it xmas already? Is it a federal election again? Is it the olympic games again? Is it census already? Is it a new decade already? The kids have finished their degree already???....... Sound familiar???

Then there's inflation. As a 20/20 maths student I've spent way to much time with spreadsheets, graphs etc, and the exponential function is truly scary.

<h1 class="quoteText"> “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” </h1>
Albert Einstein
Now of course the inflation figures coming out of the ABS are simply bogus. When measured as the true buying power of currency, our dollar is devaluing way faster than the 2% or whatever rot they trot out. Can you run your house/life for only 2% more than it cost last year????

How about the year after??? And the year after????

...... no wonder our private debt is stratospheric.... housing debt.... wowzers, this can't end well.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 25 2017, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Two separate sources (yes two) have told me that a 1% interest rate rise will bankrupt or default 20% of the population.

Let that sink in.

One was a private finance mob, one worked at the big 4.

One in five will be bankrupt or defaulting with a 1% rise in rates.....

We know wholesale finance costs aren't coming down.....

Although with the FED reversing QE, who knows what's gonna happen.

All I know is, borrowing without a 50% buffer into Aussie housing is just crazy at this point in time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It's a complex issue. My biggest gripe with these dinosaur retailers is they don't give me a reason to use them. Target/Kmart... Pfft, I walk in, see it's all plastic, asian assembled, low cost junk and walk out. I get reams of catalogues in the mail... As a small business owner, I know the you have 0.7 seconds to grab a humans interest from advertising... these catalogues, again, junk. On the odd time I do flick through one it's followed with 'what a load of #$%^'.

It doesn't make me visit their website, let alone get dressed, hop in the car, fight traffic, get a park, then fight mums and prams to get into their shop.

No ambience, no loyalty schemes, no birthday bonuses...nothing. Just here's our junk, come pay for it. I'm not sure they actually understand they aren't entitled to my business or money.....

and they wonder why sales are drying up.

Amazon is an interesting one, AFAIK, the retailing arm ie. Amazon.com, still barely eeks out a profit (a lot of profit's from AWS etc), so it's all just a race to the bottom. No company survives on being the cheapest.

Maybe it's not amazon that's killing it, but that retail has simply positioned itself in a race to the bottom. Wise marketer's know price is not a competitive advantage.

Maybe I'm just getting older, and see the world for what it appears to be: A rich few forcing consumerism on the masses.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 12 2017, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

so the rba need to publish a report to work out those that have borrowed into an asset class, before record price growth, at record low interest rates, are better off than those who are saving and getting historically low interest returns........

Doesn't it make your mind spin?????

As for the world noticing, Australia, Canada and China's housing markets are definately on the radar of the world's bankers. they're just waiting for the rising default rates before they take action

Twisted Minds
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Attached Image



I can't remember where I got it, and I'm failing with google image search, any one able to try and locate where it's from?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 12:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I can't find it now (I think I have it on the work computer, I'll try to dig it up) a picture a few years old showing the Aussie bank's derivative position...

We all know (or if you don't you're plain dumb... sorry, I'm not sorry for being blunt) that these crazy housing investors are using equity. How else do you explain the $12billion given back to -ve gear'ers, yet their portfolio keeps growing... So these little fools themselves are running synthetic CDO's as such.. Put down $50k, believe the market says it's gone up $50, pull that down for the next deposit etc.... So you can end up with multimillion dollar debts, all off a $50 down payment.... But when you have say $2,000,000 on the hook...and the market drops just 2.5% you wipe out your initial capital... and remember over 50% of all investor loans were/are Interest only, so I'm not BS'ing when I say that. A 2.5% drop will wipe out a $2,000,000 portfolio... Or, a hit on one property brings the whole thing down....

Blah....

But, just as we seen in USA, UK, Japan, Ireland, Iceland, France etc. etc. it WILL take rate rises to burst this bubble.

Notice in the youtube clip linked that it was 'rising defaults' that was the key. Years ago I stupidly put a stop loss on CBA at $52 or something similar, it never got that low, but I didn't understand how crazy the debt market, Canberra and the states would be on keeping this racket alive.

There's no doubt it's a house of cards, I'm not even sure the upper layers are being held up by cards, but rather bags of wind blowing upwards..... Very, very frightening.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 28 2017, 06:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Yeah, it's been pretty disappointing this on. Is it a case of be greedy when others are fearful????? Or is it just a dog?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 24 2017, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

You should also worry when founders buy in to keep the share price afloat.... Seen that a few times recently.....
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Aug 24 2017, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

The banks may be behind amazon in terms of data management....

But when amazon makes real profits, then I'll sit up and take notice, until then, they're just a cut price retailers, who jumped on the IT band wagon: Nothing they do is particularly special, they make turn over sure. Nothing they do is unique enough for them to have huge profits so it's just smoke and mirrors.

A few shareholders get spectacularly rich from speculators, but where is the real money??????
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 23 2017, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I simply don't like the 4 year plan for Big W.

4 years???? That is insane in the global economy. They need to move, much, much faster. Multi year turn around/growth to profit just don't cut it in this world any more: I thought Masters would have taught them that?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 9 2017, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

It will happen, but the timing is impossible to call on this one.

The ABS/RBA numbers show credit is in reverse other than property, and we know the foreign money is keeping the market afloat. Yes, it has slowed, but only a fool could believe it stopped.

Apartment prices in free fall.

People quitting all sorts of jobs to become "flippers"

Debt on a trajectory that makes SpaceX rocket launches jelous..

Yields that make no sense

Income to price ratios (when using median income to median prices) that have many parts of Australia at 10:1, with parts of Syd and Melb at 30:1...

What could possibly go wrong?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 11:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

This whole AML is a bit of a farce. I highly the doubt the fines will have any real impact on CBA.

I'm far more worried about the housing bubble bursting.

But, meh, I been thinking that for 10+ years.

I'll just keep DRI.... Bought at IPO, so can hardly loose on this cash cow.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 4 2017, 06:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

In a fractional reserve system such as ours, do I need to remind you all of

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

The government knows damn well they can't slap the bank hard, that'll trigger a credit crunch...

and no one wants a credit crunch when a housing bubble is the only thing holding your gdp together.........
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 27 2017, 04:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

Nipper, that's a fascinating chart.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 26 2017, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

QUOTE
Did you hear about the Australian senator who went into an italian pizza shop with his mum.
He not only came out with a pizza but an italian citizenship as well


The surprised senator was then mugged on the walk back to the car park.
What really piqued his interest was the fact, that of all his possessions on the senator, the mugger took only the pizza box after up-ending the contents.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jul 25 2017, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 474

I think the RBA will struggle to control interest rates, our banks are far to exposed to foreign cost pressures for the RBA to remain in charge. We've already seen lots of little hikes from the banks recently.

A huge issue no one appears to be covering is the IO investors struggling to gain finance as their loans come up for renewal.

As early bird touched on, the Chinese money is a massive, massive factor. Housing is a market, where the value of the entire thing is created from a few sales at the margins. So all this foreign money getting parked here, is holding prices up, even the credit market/growth figures from the ABS support this.

I'd hardly call 10% a correction given the current prices.

But the really problem, is this is a huge, super credit bubble. And what do we know about buyer behaviour when a credit bubble retreats heavily? It crashes.

So when is the crash? Dunno, but's it's at least 10 years overdue by my schedule

thumbdown.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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