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rog
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 05:00 AM


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Posts: 2,106

(But the change ... 15 for the five year period but only 12% over it's lifetime ... hides a huge wobble, when investors got nervous as Macquarie had to morph it's model, post GFC)


But their ability to adapt to a new environment is remarkable.
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rog
Posted on: Sep 21 2019, 03:06 PM


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I got tired of the 2nd guessing and dumped the lot and am shifting into an offshore investment fund. AMP have had enough rope and it’s not my job to make excuses for them - they may have some good assets but their management of those assets has not been to the shareholders benefit.
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rog
Posted on: Jul 13 2019, 10:09 AM


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It’s my belief that judging today’s market performance, or any days performance, against historical “record highs” is meaningless unless inflation is factored in.

The much discussed pre gfc ASX200 high of 6,828 happened about 11.5 years ago. Allowing for inflation at 2.1% that value would be in excess of 8,500 - and that’s not including any effect from compounding.

So talk of a correlating correction is very premature.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Oct 31 2018, 04:37 PM


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Posts: 2,106

The RC has damaged the perception of banking and the banks are exposed to a public loss of confidence.

I doubt that this will sustain as the banks are in control of the money supply.

At the end of the day, we all need money.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 18 2018, 07:49 AM


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TBH I find the bonus issue mystifying.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 17 2018, 08:29 AM


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The current board are paying for the sins of past boards. In particular I’m thinking of the one that ramped up dividends, refused to voluntarily undergo structural separation and turned down the offer of an NBN.

It was a con, shareholders were OK with the dividend so were OK with the directors remuneration.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 15 2018, 04:18 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Of the many variables troubling the market - the scenario that the US punishes Saudi Arabia over Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia retaliates by pricing contracts in Chinese yuan.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Sep 6 2018, 04:56 PM


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Posts: 2,106

The latest Ann seems to indicate no more cuts to the dividend, for the foreseeable future.
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rog
Posted on: Sep 6 2018, 08:31 AM


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Minor downward projection in today’s Ann


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
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rog
Posted on: May 20 2018, 03:46 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Ceejay

It’s only a good strategy if you are 100% certain that the price will go up. As your own experience has shown, there is no certainty.

Spending more money to make the initial purchase look “less bad” seems counterintuitive, you would probably be better off leaving it in a term deposit - at least your capital will be intact.

If past sp is a guide the value of telstra will continue to depreciate.
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rog
Posted on: May 3 2018, 07:04 PM


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I'm glad the banks are getting out of this nonsense, nothing worse than having to watch an obviously overweight CEO on the TV rambling on about "organic growth". All this vertical integration has been testing my vertigo.
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rog
Posted on: May 1 2018, 01:02 PM


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Posts: 2,106

ANZ CEO saying that it’s the end of the good times.

“Our sector has had a golden period for 20-plus years and we don’t think that’s going to continue,”
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rog
Posted on: Apr 30 2018, 05:18 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Without prejudice

https://www.youtube.com/embed/dumGYTkzCZQ
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rog
Posted on: Apr 30 2018, 05:10 PM


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Quite possibly - its also possible to overthink these things.

Regulators only see good guys/bad guys, financiers only see profit and we all want our money which makes us all conflicted by our personal interests.
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rog
Posted on: Apr 30 2018, 02:47 PM


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The UBS call was a bit of a shot across the bows but as it turns out Westpac have been ahead of the game and have already implemented many of the required changes.

Chris Joye covers these and other aspects in the AFR.

“Contrary to Tony Abbott's suggestion the regulators should be sacked in response to the royal commission, APRA has generally been doing an excellent job. The housing boom kicked- off in 2013 and APRA has been hounding banks on loan serviceability standards since late 2014, when it introduced a raft of rules and established a prudential mortgage lending guide.

After this column sensationally revealed that NAB and others were not complying with one new rule, APRA conducted a comprehensive shadow-shopping exercise in early 2015 to test bank-by-bank standards. This naturally identified deficiencies, which APRA's outstanding boss Wayne Byers publicly excoriated the banks on in May 2015. In early 2016 APRA repeated the exercise with much more favourable results.

It has also introduced tough limits on lending to investors, interest-only borrowers and high loan-to-value ratio customers, with approvals to these cohorts all plummeting. Concurrently, APRA has forced the big banks to deleverage and raise their equity capital ratios to "unquestionably strong" levels that rank them among the lowest risk banks in the world. The royal commission's recommendations will only reinforce this process.”
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rog
Posted on: Apr 27 2018, 05:01 AM


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If you look at the details of the “widespread failings”, over 20% of loans had been repaid/refinanced, 1% was over 30 days due and 0.25% greater than 90 days past due. Hardly justifies the reaction.
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rog
Posted on: Apr 5 2018, 05:01 PM


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Its an uneven contest; the chinese think in the very long term whereas Trump's focus is limited to a very small space in time.

I'm sure that if Trump was any real threat he would have been taken out long before now.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 17 2018, 01:39 PM


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While these pundits throw up some interesting views they are essentially selling their product - if they were so sure of themselves they would short the market.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 15 2018, 12:27 PM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
but careful about our housing sector!! it's a serious matter to aussie investors.


Some concern being expressed that if franking is restricted SMSFs will turn to REITs and other forms of property investment creating even more demand.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 15 2018, 10:02 AM


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Posts: 2,106

Tax payers will still be able to offset imputation to their taxable income; the only difference will be to remove the Howard/Costello policy of refunding franking credits not used to reduce taxable income.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 15 2018, 08:48 AM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
This removes the principle that the individual tax-payer’s marginal tax rate defines how much tax they have to pay.


Apples with oranges; while an individual tax payer can be a member of a super fund their own taxation obligations are not those of the super fund.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 23 2018, 05:50 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Regarding asset recycling, two companies spring immediately to mind - Tepco and Carillion. Taxpayers have reason to be concerned as inevitably they have to pay for the failure of these free market operators.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 31 2018, 04:44 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Yes, I was thinking early days when the sp struggled to get over 50c. Also, a big thumbs up for those that adopt the set and forget philosophy.
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rog
Posted on: Jan 31 2018, 09:20 AM


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A great result for long term holders.
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rog
Posted on: Jan 24 2018, 07:17 AM


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“Schuldschein borrowers do not require a credit rating and the company only needs to prepare a brief document to accompany a deal.”

“Market participants say that recent ruptures have not undermined Schuldschein, but have merely shown that it is not suitable for every company”

https://www.ft.com/content/ac329fba-fac4-11...92-2c9be7f3120a
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 11:32 AM


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Posts: 2,106

I predict that the sp will fall by an amount greater than the dividend - next months' results will be informative.
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rog
Posted on: Dec 30 2017, 06:37 AM


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My local woolies has a mix of checkouts with the automated being popular. Theft is huge with shoppers deliberatly bypassing the bar code reader even under the watchful gaze of staff. Apparently the security alarms are not effective.
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rog
Posted on: Nov 28 2017, 09:18 AM


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I think that Macquarie Banking (MBL) is separate to MQG.
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rog
Posted on: Nov 27 2017, 09:44 AM


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AFR

Telstra and Optus lose ground against cheaper mobile providers, with iPhone boost ahead

EXCLUSIVE Nov 26 2017 at 11:00 PM Updated Nov 26 2017 at 11:00 PM

Telstra and Optus will expect to do better than cheaper rivals when it comes to signing up customers keen to use the new iPhone X. Michael Nagle

Telstra and Optus face increased competition for mobile customers from lower cost operators, which resell services on their networks, according to a study showing that more new customers are signing up with alternative providers than the big names.

The top telcos will be looking to the the recent release of the iPhone X and the Samsung Note 8 to swing things back in their favour, after Telsyte's Australian Mobile Services Market Study 2017 found that more than 200,000 of 444,000 new services in operation in the first half of 2017 were signed up to Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs), rather than directly with the largest telcos.

Telsyte found the top performing MVNOs in the first half of 2017 where ALDImobile, Amaysim and Kogan Mobile. Worryingly for Telstra, it added fewer new customers than Optus and was on par with Vodafone, with Optus appearing to be reaping some benefits from its mammoth investment in English Premier League football rights.

Telsyte senior analyst Alvin Lee said Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) such as Telstra, Optus and Vodafone tended to appeal to customers for different reasons than MVNOs. The former tend to attract customers who want value-added offerings such as bundled services and media content, whereas the latter's customers tend to base their decisions on price.

Telsyte analyst Alvin Lee said Optus was seeing the value in its sports rights, but many customers were currently focused mainly on price.

He said the majority of customers seemed to be less impressed by the relative technical prowess of 4G networks than they were when they were new, and that this avenue of competition would re-emerge when 5G is operating by 2020.

"MVNOs are putting more pressure on carriers particularly in the $30 to $60 range, targeting consumers who are looking for more data at better price points … Generally speaking the network is less of a differentiation now than comparing to when 4G first came out about five years ago, unless we look at specific non-metro areas. Consumers are also more price sensitive in the current economy," Mr Lee said.

"Telstra's mobile profits are under pressure and this is being factored into the share price … it is facing a tough fight from here to the commercialisation of 5G."

Optus took a big punt on football as a drawcard for new telecommunications customers, paying a hefty $63 million a year for three years to outbid News Corp's Fox Sports and attracting controversy after its restrictive English Premier League (EPL) packages and technical troubles beset its first season. It also unveiled plans in July to invest $1 billion into a widespread upgrade of its regional mobile network.

Sports as a retention strategy

However, Mr Lee said Telstra had used mobile rights for AFL, NRL and netball as a successful lure for mobile subscribers and Optus appeared to be seeing the benefits in its own sports package.

"We have seen strong growth in Optus post-paid mobile segment since they acquired EPL rights, and it seems to be working as a retention strategy," he said.

"We believe content is still an important differentiator in the market that is much more price sensitive."

Telsyte found that more than half of handsets were on non-contract plans, but despite this, re-contracting of premium priced handsets such as the iPhone X and the Samsung Note 8 were likely to help the MNOs fight back against the MVNOs in the second half of 2017.

It estimated that up to 65 per cent of iPhone sales in the second half of 2017 would be via mobile contracts, compared to around 50 per cent in previous iPhone "S" model years.

"The majority of MVNOs focus on BYO – SIM only – or prepaid plans. Not everyone can afford to pay the upfront cost of premium handsets and the carriers provide the option to subsidise or repay handsets on more affordable terms," Mr Lee said.

"The new iPhones are driving a re-contracting cycle, which is helping carriers maintain customers in an otherwise highly price-competitive market."


TLS
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rog
Posted on: Nov 22 2017, 06:31 PM


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QUOTE
“We like businesses that generate lots of cash and are trading at prices that we find attractive.”


https://foragerfunds.com/bristlemouth/animal-spirits-fore/

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rog
Posted on: Nov 2 2017, 02:53 AM


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QUOTE
So what changed in respect to the company to result in such a material decline in its share price?


Huge changes in the fundamentals, as outlined by the Chairman

QUOTE
For Telstra, those challenges are being driven by a number of factors including:

- intense competition in both the fixed and mobile marketplaces
- an exponential rate of change in technology and connectivity;
- an unprecedented growth in capacity demand;
- a rapid acceleration in the rollout of the NBN, which will ultimately cost Telstra some $3b in EBITDA; and,
- the announcement that a fourth mobile network will shortly be launched in Australia.
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rog
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 08:33 PM


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Posts: 2,106

There are a couple of cards up Telstra’s sleeve;

1 they are the incumbent
2 they are the only fully Australian company



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rog
Posted on: Oct 28 2017, 03:03 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Alan Kohler recently, on telstra
QUOTE
..it’s been a shocking investment for most of the past 20 years, ever since it was floated, and I can’t see that changing – unless it picks up the NBN on the cheap. But that won’t happen.
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rog
Posted on: Sep 4 2017, 08:44 AM


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Posts: 2,106


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...750e84238ce5b8b

Penn in race to reinvent Telstra

Supratim Adhikari12:00AM September 2, 2017

Telstra shareholders will need to brace themselves for a bumpy ride, with chief executive Andrew Penn facing a tight deadline to reinvent the telco from its current form into a mover and shaker in the technology world.

With Telstra’s sacrosanct dividend policy now cut and its plan to bring forward some of the payments it receives from NBN Co shot down, Mr Penn said management would have to make hard decisions to ensure the long-term survival of the company.

“We have to have the right balance sheet settings for the ­future, we have to respond to the National Broadband Network and these are the right policy ­settings,” he told The Weekend Australian.

“The government’s decision on the NBN sees effectively 30 per cent of our business re­nationalised, and we lose $3 billion annually from that, but our strategy isn’t about just replacing that $3bn.

“Our strategy is about making the right investment decision to grow in the future, and how do we manage our business effectively. The extent to which it offsets the $3bn gap over time we will have to see, but we will not invest in the wrong thing just to make up the gap.”

For retail investors who bought into Telstra’s promise as a communications monopoly when it was floated to the market, it is further proof that the cuts to the dividend and a depressed share price look set to be the new normal.

Adding to that anxiety for retail shareholders is the mystery of what sort of a business Telstra is hoping to become if it no longer sees itself as a telco.

According to Mr Penn, it is not about becoming a technology company in the traditional sense.

“We are not suggesting we are going to become Google,” he said.

“The point is that technology innovation is growing quickly and all of it needs connectivity, from autonomous driving and drones to the Internet of Things.

“So what’s important for us is that we have the best networks in Australia, and in addition to that we are strengthening our capabilities at the applications and services layer to make sure that the people using them have the best experience on Telstra’s network.”


However, building those capabilities doesn’t come cheap. So far Telstra has spent $750 million since last November on its network out of the $3bn allocated until 2019, and the intensity is likely to get stronger still.

Telstra may not be able to recast itself in the same mould as an Amazon, Microsoft or Google, but it will need to keep pouring dollars into making sure it’s the best player in the game when it comes to connecting their services to its customers.

However, Shaw and Partners analyst David Spotswood warned that Mr Penn and his team did not have a lot of time to get the desired results, especially as the NBN and the likes of TPG Telecom rip into Telstra’s margins in fixed and mobile markets respectively.

“Telstra’s margins currently run at 8 per cent for fixed-line broadband, and if NBN Co’s revenue projections are correct then that shrinks dramatically. Meanwhile, mobile prices in Australia are already very expensive and they are going to go down,” Mr Spotswood said. “TPG charges $2 a gigabyte on its BYO service while Telstra charges $20 a gigabyte. You take the handset out of the picture and Telstra still charges $12 a gigabyte.”

According to Mr Spotswood, sustaining that sort of margin on mobiles is going to be difficult for Telstra and, while the telco will receive compensation from NBN Co until 2020 for losing its wholesale monopoly, it may not be enough.

“They have two years, they will get massive one-off payments from NBN ($3bn in fiscal 2018 and $4bn in fiscal 2019) but once that runs out they are toast, unless they can reinvent themselves. The question for retail shareholders is, do you back Telstra to do it? They will have to redeploy capital and get decent return on that.”

Telstra’s track record on that front is patchy at best.

Australian mobile advertising start-up Unlockd’s co-founder, Matt Berriman, said Telstra faced a mammoth task in turning its words into action. Unlockd works closely with global telcos through its platform where users can gain discounts by viewing ads after they unlock their smartphone.

“They’ve tried being a media company with Telstra Media and Sensis, telco with international expansion into Asia (mirroring ANZ’s strategy), which also failed, then a health technology-focused business, and now they want to be a technology company ... who knows what’s next?” he said.

Without the right investment thesis, one that to date has been about yield returns for shareholders and not one geared towards building new revenue streams, Mr Berriman warned that the likes of Facebook, Alibaba and Amazon could make life even more difficult for Telstra.

“The global giants aren’t building their own infrastructure and cloud services to not do a direct mobile play against the big telcos at some point,” he said.

“A clear example of the disruption is telcos missing the instant messaging wave. SMS was a very high-margin business for telcos and they completely missed the threat that’s wiped out that very profitable revenue stream.”

Mr Penn is committed to ensuring there is no repeat of the same under his watch at Telstra. But the medium-term outlook for the telco is not good, with earnings and share price likely to stay depressed for some time.


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rog
Posted on: Sep 2 2017, 06:10 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Worth reading this, Costco might just be selling junk but it's big junk and punters like to feel they are getting bargain

QUOTE
In 2016 Australian consumers spent $1.5 billion at Costco


http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life...0c417773e322dc8
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rog
Posted on: Aug 31 2017, 09:07 PM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
The perception that Amazon is poised to take over the grocery business via its acquisition of Whole Foods, which closed this week, is another myth, said O’Shea.

“Online sales still account for only about 10% of overall U.S. retail sales, with a much lower percentage in the grocery segment, leaving the big brick-and-mortar retailers, led by Walmart, still really formidable competitors in the industry,” he wrote.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is...lers-2017-08-30
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rog
Posted on: Aug 21 2017, 07:55 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Chaos presents opportunities.

..............


Telstra: shareholders vs customers

Posted on August 21, 2017 by Paul Budde

It is worthwhile to analyse what is behind Telstra’s recent announcements that it will both cut its dividend and sell $5bn in future NBN revenue.

These announcements drowned out the rather solid earnings for the previous financial year and an interesting program of capital investments in its existing network.

While the NBN deals negotiated by Telstra under David Thodey were largely seen as a massive subsidy for the dominant telecoms company, the underlying telecommunications market and industry situation remained very much the same. Telstra, in its core, largely continues to be a utilities company that has seen ongoing declining margins because of fierce competition of a range of its, in general, ‘vanilla’ products. This was again evident when Telstra indicated it will increase its competition – in particular with TPG – meaning that it will offer more price competitive products; and this in turn means lower margins. It will do this through a further investment in its low-cost mobile brand Belong.

This utilities based nature of the industry was also reflected in the massive write down of Vocus and the huge slide of TPG’s share price earlier this year should also be viewed in that context. The second rate NBN is also not going to open opportunities for high value new services, so it is basic back to basics for the industry.

Putting all of this in context the generous NBN pay-outs to Telstra are also not what they looked like. As I have been saying for the last two decades, the reality is that the underlying structure of the organisation will continue to be focussed on the utilities-based nature of the company. This means that margins will continue to be driven down, and this will need to be compensated for by cost-cutting, rather than by higher value new revenue streams. There is nothing wrong with that in principle, if the company keeps a clear focus on this in every part of its organisation.

However in the past we have seen dozens and dozens of new (ad)ventures from Telstra, trying to tap into new products and services with higher margins; but the company has very little to show for those decades of billion dollar investments. It looks as though, under Andy Penn, the company is at least concentrating on its core business.

Perhaps not all that sexy, but very effective.

If the company would like to move into other areas the only way out would be its structural separation, with independent divisions that are then able to focus on the core business of each of these sections. But to date there has been very little appetite for that.

We have highlighted the missed opportunity to do this with their digital media assets (Foxtel, White- and Yellow Pages and its broadband content) also here more reality as Telstra is finally diluting its uneasy investment in Foxtel, from now on simply concentrating on providing the delivery infrastructure for the service.

In this light we also have to look at the cutting of dividend and the sale of future revenue. Given the true nature of the company, and in comparison with dividends that are paid out by similar companies, Telstra was positioned as a technology company, of course they still are but much more on a basic infrastructure level rather than on perceived high value opportunities. Weaning shareholders off those generous high dividends will always be painful, but its slashing does reflect the reality.

The future sale of NBN revenue is an interesting one, but again it is an admission of the utilities-based nature of the company and the need to keep debt down and create money for capital investment. I am still somewhat worried, as it also looks like a clear sign of weakness that this money needs to be found rather than being generated through the business.

If this sale is approved we might see for the first time a more serious entry of superannuation companies as investors in the telecoms infrastructure business. I am a long-term advocate and promoter of their involvement in the telecoms infrastructure market, and if successful this might be a first step, with many more to follow (eg, think privatising the NBN).

This also might create more opportunities for the smart city movement, where massive infrastructure investments are needed at local council levels. Perhaps that is wishful thinking at this stage, but I see a glimpse of hope for the future of telecoms infrastructure investments.
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rog
Posted on: Aug 21 2017, 06:51 AM


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Posts: 2,106


Via the market shareholders have voted on Telstra management.

http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/is-te...20170820-gy0apg

Is Telstra's Andy Penn a man without a plan?

Rear Window Aug 20 2017 at 8:38 PM Updated Aug 20 2017 at 9:21 PM

Jesse Marlow

It is hard to know what was most daft about Telstra's full-year result on Thursday: that it has taken this long for chief executive Andy Penn to acknowledge the iceberg his company is bearing down upon, or that the market recoiled with such ferocity.

It had been so blindingly obvious that Telstra could not maintain its 31¢ dividend that even we said so! Chairman John Mullen even softened up investors for the move in a Sky News interview on July 18. The magnitude of the cut, to 22¢, might have been some surprise (the board deserve credit for not pussyfooting around), but only four weeks ago Citi's David Kaynes was (loudly) pushing for 17¢. We're sure he'll get his wish soon enough.

But JPMorgan (with a $5 price target), Goldman Sachs and even those geniuses at Contango ("a contrarian idea is brewing" warned Rob Rankin's last musketeer Charlie Aitken) spent the days before arguing that either there would be "no dividend cut" or that there would but its reduction had been "priced in". The stock dutifully walked up to $4.33 at Wednesday's close, from $4.07 a fortnight earlier. It closed Thursday, post-announcement, at $3.87, down 10.6 per cent. And just watch the share price after August 30, once 1.2 million retail shareholders can dump stock but still keep the full 31¢ on it.

Arguments over the wisdom or otherwise of Telstra's capital management policy tend to miss the point entirely. Business Insider's editor-in-chief Paul Colgan editorialised breathlessly for the telco's decision "to hold on to some profit to invest in the development of the company, rather than showering it on shareholders" and cited Amazon as "an obvious comparison here for how it can be done differently"

But for every dollar of capital expenditure Amazon reinvested into the business over the past five years, it extracted an earnings return of more than 40¢. For every dollar Telstra reinvested, it got nothing – and arguably less than nothing.

Telstra's cumulative capital expenditure since 2008-09 was a whopping $43.8 billion. Yet its earnings in FY09 were $10.6 billion, just as its earnings reported on Thursday for FY17 were $10.6 billion. Adjusted for inflation over that period, earnings have fallen. Yes, Telstra – mostly under chairman Catherine Livingstone and previous CEO David Thodey (both of whom timed their exits superbly!) – spent $43.8 billion just to stand still.

So Telstra isn't cutting the dividend to "invest in the development of the company", it is doing so just to keep the lights on.

And herein lies the problem: beyond incrementalism, what is Penn's actual plan? "I'm not suggesting we are going to be the next Netflix or Facebook or Amazon [but] we are shifting from being just a pure telco to something else." What is that even supposed to mean? Half-pregnant or half-dead?

So Penn has loosened News Corp's grip on its media future through the dilute-and-dump of a merged Foxtel and Fox Sports. But then what? Management has no credible strategy to replace fat, fixed-line profits lost to NBN Co (compensation for which will rapidly exhaust), a step-change it has had more than six years to plan for. None of its sexy new business streams are amounting to anything (Telstra Health is a total dud). So it initiates deep cost cuts to maintain short-term mobile margins at the very time it needs to recover its network advantage. Oh, and a fourth mobile network (courtesy of David Teoh's TPG) is coming.

We possess not inconsiderable reserves of sympathy for the inheritance Penn unwrapped, but that was two years ago. What remains unclear is whether Penn and his strategists are lousy at framing and proselytising their Grand Plan, or whether they really just don't have one.


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rog
Posted on: Aug 7 2017, 07:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

https://www.itnews.com.au/feature/tracing-t...3#disqus_thread


Tracing Telstra's future

Ry Crozier
Telstra is already reinventing itself with a budget running into the billions, but faces a new series of threats that could undermine its future growth prospects.

As it moves further into an NBN world, the telco faces increased pressure to maintain market share and margin it has traditionally dominated by owning and operating the local fixed-line network.

It – like others – is likely to compete with high speed and quota-heavy mobile plans that – for many internet users – could prove an attractive alternative to a fixed-line service.

But the government is unlikely to take that kind of competition to the NBN lying down, and as such there is growing regulatory uncertainty over how mobile will be treated in future as an NBN competitor.

Telstra faces a range of other challenges: to its brand attributes, to its breadth of products, the loyalty of its subscriber base, and to its ability to decide who does and does not have a right to use its mobile network.

iTnews analyses the threats and opportunities that are shaping Telstra’s future.


Losing the USO

If the Productivity Commission has its way – and some sway – with the government, the universal service obligation (USO) in its current form could be axed.

Responsibility for delivering minimum standard voice and data services would fall mostly on NBN Co and mobile operators, and government would take responsibility for funding services to the most remote places.

The USO is currently a contractual responsibility for Telstra that requires it to make “standard telephone services and payphones accessible to all people in Australia on an equitable basis, wherever they reside or carry on business".

Axing it would relieve Telstra of its USO responsibilities and costs, but also the $297 million it gets a year and is contracted to get until 2032, which is drawn from an industry levy. Unwinding that contract could incur penalties on the government’s part.

Throughout the review process, Telstra has indicated it is “open to a change to USO arrangements”, as long as “acceptable terms [are] reached between Telstra and the government”.

Telstra has done relatively well in renegotiations with the government around the NBN, and industry observers believe the long-term USO contract leaves Telstra well-placed to renegotiate it.

“Telstra’s in a very strong position,” Professor Reg Coutts, who is principal of Coutts Communications, said. “It’s intrinsic of the political and commercial power that they have.”

“They’re very happy to renegotiate so long as they don’t go backwards,” telecommunications economist John de Ridder said.

“I think they feel they’ve got a very good deal locked in, so they’re happy to adapt so long as they’re not left out of pocket as a result. With this government they’re probably safe enough but you never know.”

De Ridder believes Telstra could also be happy to be relieved of USO duties.

“I think Telstra always felt that it had been dudded over the USO funding, that it was carrying all of the costs and the money it was getting from the others [telcos via an industry levy] wasn’t nearly enough to cover its costs,” he said.

“[In addition], I think Telstra is trying to focus on being a different company these days. It doesn’t see itself anymore as being a local access network company.

“It would love to think NBN is now the fixed network infrastructure and that it didn’t have any more of a role to play [in that space]. I still think that’s where it wants to be.”


Fending off domestic roaming

Telstra is currently batting away attempts led by Vodafone to force it to open up the regional portion of its mobile network to rivals.

Domestic roaming would enable mobile users to roam on the Telstra network when out of range of their own carrier’s network.

Telstra argues – among other things - that such an arrangement would disincentivise future regional investment, since it would limit the financial rewards from that spend. Vodafone argues that Telstra built its regional dominance in part on public money, and therefore the spoils should be shared.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) tentatively decided in May that it would not pursue domestic roaming.

Vodafone is now challenging in court the process used to come to that tentative decision. Both Telstra and Optus have joined proceedings, which has hearings set down for September.

A win here might not be enough to force the ACCC to change its mind, or its decision. It could force the ACCC to refine its inquiry processes – court outcomes are hard to predict – but for the moment the value built up in Telstra’s mobile network remains safe.

“A win for Vodafone doesn’t really mean a reversal of the process,” Coutts said. “It could be a bit of a pyrrhic victory.”


The TPG threat

Also threatening Telstra’s traditional mobile dominance is the arrival of a newcomer.

Australia’s fourth mobile network is being built by TPG, boasting 80 percent population coverage at a cost of around $2 billion. Construction is set to begin next year.

Opinion is divided on what this will mean for Telstra.

In Telstra’s favour is that TPG can break even simply by bringing its (and iiNet’s) mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) customers on-net. That would hurt Vodafone and Optus, who provide MVNO services to TPG and iiNet respectively.

The question then is how aggressive TPG will be in pursuing further market share.

Coutts doesn’t see TPG as a big threat to Telstra; de Ridder, however, believes “TPG is a worry”.

“Telstra should be worried - but not as much as they used to have to be,” he said.

De Ridder speculated that TPG is now of a size where it no longer needs to play the role of maverick newcomer.

“They’re almost like an incumbent now, so there’s no need for them to be too aggressive on price because they don’t need to be,” he said.

“They’ve got their market share, now it’s about trying to get value out of it. They should be more mature now; I don’t think Telstra has to worry about them being as aggressive as they were before.”

Recent research by UBS’ Evidence Lab in Australia found that Telstra customers were least likely to churn to TPG, mostly over concerns about its limited geographical coverage.

The research found only 13 percent of Telstra customers would likely switch to a 'theoretical $25 / unlimited (with caveats)’ mobile product offered by TPG. By comparison, 23-26 percent of Optus and Vodafone customers would be tempted.

However, UBS said investors were “worried about the price/ARPU [average revenue per user] impacts that TPG might have (i.e. TPG will force an industry price cascade, where Vodafone responds first, then Optus/Telstra respond in turn)".

Telstra also had a “resurgent” Optus and Vodafone to add to its worries. Both Telstra’s rivals have seen gains in their net promoter scores (NPS) – a measure of customer satisfaction – outpace that of Telstra.


The only buyer for NBN Co?

It’s widely assumed that the government will try to sell the NBN once the project is complete - especially given long-term predictions of the rate of return that the asset might generate.

The problem is, who is in a position, and on top of that willing, to buy it?

Having offloaded its copper and HFC networks to NBN Co, would Telstra even want to buy them back?

“I’m hesitant to say yes,” Reg Coutts said.

“I don’t think Telstra’s interested,” John de Ridder concurs. “There’s no advantage anymore in having a local access network for residential. It’s just a pain. No one wants it.”

However, telecommunications analyst Paul Budde believes Telstra - or perhaps an investment fund - will emerge as the potential buyer. He assumes both will only want the NBN at "a bargain price".

Of course, there is always a buyer at the right price: for the government, it’s whether the right price can be achieved without splitting up the NBN, or writing down part of the asset’s value.

Telecommunications entrepreneur Bevan Slattery implored the government in April to “write down $20 - $30 billion of the NBN investment and call it a social infrastructure investment.” Slattery was backed by New Street Research telco analyst Ian Martin, who expects half the government’s investment to be written off.

Coutts also believes this is likely a valid path to sale. “The only way the government can potentially make the NBN saleable unfortunately is to write off some of the capital,” he said.

Whether that would make the NBN asset more attractive to Telstra remains to be seen. Many see mobile technology as a threat to the NBN’s future, and de Ridder believes Telstra is firmly of that view.

“Telstra’s future is 5G,” de Ridder said.

NBN Co, for its part, is doing its best to look saleable. It is consistently talking up the upgradeability and future paths for the various technologies that make up its network, and is also looking to business and even the internet of things (IoT) to demonstrate it has revenue-earning potential.


The NBN 'big dog'

By owning the access network, Telstra has traditionally enjoyed a sizable share of market in the residential fixed-line space.

Without that network asset, the company is still managing to keep that dominance in an NBN world, and analysts believe it is likely to maintain its dominant position, at least in the short term.

In its most recent results, Telstra said it “continued to lead the market” with 792,000 of the total 1.6 million active NBN connections. Its 49.5 percent market share is higher than in September last year, showing it is gaining – rather than losing – ground in an NBN world.

Coutts believed Telstra could increase its market share via acquisition, as the battle for the last 15-20 percent of NBN users not served by the big ISPs became increasingly congested.

“If anything, there will be some rationalisation of the current NBN resellers,” he said.

“There are too many of them at the smaller end, so the question is what happens to them. If we assume some consolidation, I think Telstra’s still in a very good position.

“The dilemma the industry’s got is Telstra’s so much the dominant player in the game that they have many more options open to them than their competitors, so I’m pretty confident that they can maintain their dominant position and in fact shed some loss making activities [in the process].”


Growing the war chest

Accepting the arrival of the NBN has afforded Telstra a considerable war chest to invest into its mobile network and elsewhere.

There’s the $11 billion agreements with the government comprising $5 billion in infrastructure payments, $4 billion in disconnection payments and $2 billion in Commonwealth agreements.

The infrastructure portion includes long-term leases for ducts, conduits and so on. Telstra has reportedly engaged JPMorgan and Macquarie to explore the sale of this long-term lease revenue, which would bring forward revenues that otherwise would be spread out until 2045.

Telstra has also done well securing additional NBN works. It won $390 million of planning and design work related to the multi-technology mix; $150 million to pilot fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) technology, and has a four-year deal to fix faults in its own copper network, which was worth $80 million in its first year alone.

These kinds of funds are undoubtedly helpful as Telstra looks to the future to reshape its business and replace the billions of revenue it will no longer have from its wholesale copper business.

On that front, it is already pushing speeds on its 4G network to 1Gbps and moving down the 5G path; it has strengthened its cloud and enterprise businesses; and funded an expansion into new areas such as health, where it has picked up work such as to manage a $178 million national cancer screening register.

“For Telstra, it’s no longer about pipes but services,” de Ridder said. “What can they do to make themselves indispensable to certain markets.”


First mover with 5G

Telstra – like its Australian rivals – has already started technology trials to prepare for the arrival of 5G networks, predicted to be around 2019/2020.

However, unlike the previous 3G and 4G networks, the 5G rollout is going to be highly targeted around specific use cases.

“I don’t think you will see a blanket 5G coverage from day one,” Telstra’s CTO Hakan Eriksson told Mobile World Live in mid-July. “It will be rolled out where [we] need it.”

Eriksson said “if history has anything to do with predictions for the future, [Telstra] will be very early with 5G”.

“It’s interesting to note that Telstra is about 1 percent of [equipment vendor] Ericsson’s topline but 95 percent of all the ‘world firsts’ Ericsson does in mobile is with Telstra,” he said. “Telstra is always early.”

That said, Eriksson sees plenty of life left in the 4G network. Even being early with 5G, many Telstra customers may not see or need to use it.

“I think there’s drama [around] 4G and 5G,” he said.

“At the end of the day it’s what the consumer gets that’s the interesting thing. If they get 1Gbps over 4G or 5G it doesn’t really matter. You can [still] do a lot with 4G.”

5G’s challenge, according to Telstra CEO Andy Penn, is that outside of low-latency IoT applications, no one’s really sure what it will be good for.

“What is really interesting about planning and building a 5G network is that the full range of opportunities will not be clear when the networks are launched,” he said.

“They will evolve with the market and with technology advances. We have no real idea what types of things the network will enable in the future. In that way 5G, like the future, is inventing itself.”

Part of this is because 5G’s economics aren’t well understood. It is assumed that 5G will bring telecommunications equipment closer to the edge and increase the density of network sites.

“As you go down the 5G route you’re going to have to deploy more and more fibre to serve more and more sites,” de Ridder said. “The network becomes very dense. But Telstra knows all this.”

De Ridder is confident that Telstra’s track record on mobile will mean it gets 5G right.

“I remember when Next G was launched,” he said. “Back in those days 3G was something that you put into metro areas.

“I had a dinner one night with [Telstra’s former public policy chief] Phil Burgess and he told me a few stories like how staff in Telstra’s retail outlets had no idea when they opened boxes on the morning [of the Next G launch] that they were actually launching a national, continent-wide 3G network. It was a complete surprise to their own staff let alone the rest of the world.

“To get that thing done in time, [Telstra’s then CEO] Sol Trujillo was on the phone every Monday morning to the head of Ericsson in Sweden to make sure things were on schedule.

“They stole 3-4 years over Optus and Vodafone because of what they did. Optus was the leading mobile player before the launch of Next G, and Telstra took that lead off them and has stayed ahead.”


Premium veneer

Telstra’s success in mobile has in no small part contributed to its image as the premium telecommunications provider in the Australian market.

But that veneer faded somewhat through 2016 as Telstra’s networks suffered a series of damaging outages.

The company hopes to restore some of it with a $3 billion, three-year investment.

It also provided its users with two free days of data usage. They were, in succession, the busiest days ever recorded on the Next G network, and should have restored some user confidence in just how much load Telstra’s network can handle.

Mark Blackwell, a senior manager at EY, said “the network maxed out at 100-110 TB per hour on the 14th of February and 140-150 TB per hour on the 3rd of April”.

“They are impressive numbers, no doubt,” he said.

Maintaining its premium veneer is important for Telstra to be able to retain its ability to charge a premium for access to the Next G network.

Coutts believes Telstra would keep its premium positioning “for a fair while yet”. “By fair while I mean for the next five years. It’s a bit hard to predict beyond that,” he said.

Telstra would also be aided in that regard by the reach of its network. “For people in remote areas or regional centres Telstra’s often the only player in town.”
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jul 14 2017, 12:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Barrons

Why Goldman Sachs Prefers Telstra Over Spark
By Robert Guy July 11, 2017 11:40 p.m. ET

Goldman Sachs has run its eye over Telstra (TLS.AU) and Spark New Zealand (SPK.NZ) and decided the Australia telco is a better investment than its kiwi cousin.

The brokerage, which upgraded Telstra to buy in June, likes the telco's AUD1 billion productivity program, a path that Spark is also treading given the plans for cost cutting and margin expansion outlined at its recent investor day.

Spark is targeting an EBITDA margin in the low 30% range (compared to 26.3% in the first half) based on cost savings, which Goldman Sachs reckons would need the kiwi telco to lower its fixed costs by around 4% across 2018-2020 for a total decline of 11%.

Labor productivity is another area where both telcos are looking to save money, with Spark believing the use of technology could help cut the number of staff. Telstra is also cutting jobs:

Telstra faces a similar opportunity to Spark, given its staff cost/revenue is the highest in ANZ (TLS at 19% in 1H17 vs. 11% average). Recent signs are supportive, with Telstra announcing a 4% reduction in its workforce over the next 6 months – which we estimate to be annual savings of A$160mn.


So why is Telstra, rated a buy, a better investment than Spark, which is rated neutral? It all comes down to valuation and yield:

We continue to believe that Telstra’s A$1bn productivity target looks somewhat conservative, with this opportunity not fully reflected in its current price. With Telstra trading on an FY19 EV/EBITDA of 6.1X and fully franked dividend yield of 6.4% vs. Spark at 7.5X and 6.0% respectively, we reiterate our preference for Telstra (Buy) over Spark (Neutral).


Goldman Sachs has a price target of AUD5 a share for Telstra (which last traded at AUD4.32 a share) and NZD3.60 a share target for Spark (which last traded at NZD3.84 a share).
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jul 14 2017, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

AFR

Jul 13 2017Q

Increasing competition is expected to squeeze Telstra's margins. Peter Braig

Telstra investors are bracing for a cut to the company's popular dividend, as the telecommunications giant faces growing pressure from competitors and a looming earnings drop due to the NBN rollout.

Fund managers and analysts believe the telco will cut its dividend when it reports full-year earnings next month. It is also expected to announce the outcome of its capital allocation review.

Citi analyst David Kaynes believes Telstra will trim its dividend to 25¢ in the next financial year, down from 31¢ this year. However, he believes Telstra should take more drastic action and slash its dividend to 17¢.

"This is what we believe Telstra should do. By cutting the dividend immediately to the forecast low-point in earnings per share, and redirecting excess funds to buybacks, this will put EPS on a higher trajectory in the long-term," Mr Kaynes said.

UBS has previously warned Telstra's dividend could come under threat.

Contango Asset Management managing director George Boubouras said a cut to Telstra's dividend should come as no surprise to investors and has been priced into the telco's share price, which has slumped 15 per cent so far in 2017.

"Cutting to the chase, it's all about what is the most appropriate capital management strategy going forward and any capital review would have to suggest going forward the dividend can't be maintained the way it already is," Mr Boubouras said.

"Mum and dad investors and self-managed super funds would be disappointed. But, from our point of view, it's been priced in this year. You can't be having dividend yields around 7 per cent. It's a very high DPS versus their peers offshore. You need to put it into perspective. Yield-hungry investors need to put some context around it."

Telstra declined to comment ahead of its full year earnings announcement in August.

Citi is forecasting Telstra's EBITDA to fall from about $10 billion in the 2016 financial year to just below $8 billion by the end of the 2022 financial year, due in large part to the NBN.

The investment bank reckons NBN access charges will cost Telstra $2.7 billion and growing competition in mobile will squeeze margins and average revenue per user by about $800 million by 2022.

Mr Kaynes said productivity improvement and cost savings should help Telstra claw back $1 billion and ongoing NBN payments will add another $500 million.

"Telstra's core EBITDA is already in decline and, while the NBN impact to date has been modest, this will accelerate over the next three years. Reported EBITDA will continue to rise until the one-off NBN compensation payments peak in [2018-19]," Mr Kaynes said.

Clime Asset Management large cap portfolio manager David Walker said Telstra's payout ratio is too high and he thinks it will cut its dividend within three years at the latest, but probably sooner.

"Telstra is going to lose its traditional high-margin ADSL earnings. It's going to become an NBN reseller like everyone else," Mr Walker said.

While consumer broadband prices continue to fall, the cost to internet services providers on the NBN is much higher than on ADSL.

Telstra was forced to sell its copper network to the government for $11 billion, the payments of which it receives progressively over time.

"The NBN payments peak in 2018-2019. But the loss of the traditional high-margin businesses are forever. You've got all these pressures on core earnings and the payout ratio is already 90 per cent of those earnings," Mr Walker said.

He said Telstra is facing growing competition from Optus, which has improved its network dramatically, and David Teoh's TPG Telecom is preparing to become Australia's fourth mobile provider and undercut rivals.

Mr Walker said this would put pressure on Telstra's average revenue per user, with data inclusions becoming more generous, but the telco also needs to be careful it doesn't add too much traffic to its network, which would increase the need for additional capital expenditure to lift capacity.

"We're bearish and we wouldn't look at it until it was below $4," Mr Walker said.

Citi noted Telstra's mobile EBITDA has jumped 70 per cent in the five years between 2011 and 2016 to $4.4 billion – subscriber growth and rising margins have been the main reasons.

There has been speculation Telstra might securitise its NBN payments, having broached the subject at an investor day last year.

JPMorgan analysts told clients that Telstra could raise $13 billion to $18 billion if it securitised its 30-year NBN payments, and use the proceeds to buy back shares and protect its dividend yield.

"However, the bigger issue is whether the securitisation could be deconsolidated and left off the balance sheet," JPMorgan analysts told clients.

"Off-balance sheet would be more accretive than on, as the latter would equate to taking out straight debt. We expect Telstra would only go ahead with the securitisation if it's deconsolidated, at least in the view of the credit agencies."

However, Mr Kaynes doesn't think management will go with securitisation.

"While we don't believe that management has ever said they would securitise the long-term NBN payments, there is now an increasing expectation in the financial markets that Telstra will announce some sort of transaction that will bring forward the long-term NBN payments," he said.

Mr Kaynes reckons securitisation would need to be consolidated on Telstra's balance sheet.

"In this case, it would simply be an interest rate arbitrage, where Telstra seeks to raise funds at a lower rate than it otherwise could, with the funds then deployed to repay more expensive debt. While this would still be worthwhile, given Telstra's already low [about 4 per cent] cost of debt, the real benefits would be small."
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jul 11 2017, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

I used to hold

http://ow.ly/d/6xeB

US patent for acne treatment.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 08:35 AM


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Posts: 2,106



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/d...c103193f475264d

Telstra urged to sell long-term NBN contract

Scott Murdoch10:58AM June 21, 2017

Telstra is being urged to find a buyer for its long-term NBN revenue stream to reduce debt and carry out a major share buyback to reward its investors.

JPMorgan and Macquarie are understood to be working with the telco on the future options of its long-term NBN contract.

The Australian government reached an agreement with Telstra in 2011, where it would receive $11 billion in compensation for the use of its copper network, $4bn of which related to payments for disconnecting customers from its phone network and migrating them to the NBN.

Within the payment was about $5bn of infrastructure access payments over the long term, which is understood to be the revenue for which Telstra has banks examining options.

Shaw and Partners analyst David Spotswood has today raised the prospect that Telstra’s $1 billion in long-term regular NBN lease payments could be worth about $15.3 billion. The payments are due to be delivered until 2045.

“There seems to be a view in the market that Telstra will sell its. long term lease revenue,” Mr Spotswood said in a research note.

“This does not change the valuation or earnings profile of Telstra in the long term but will reduce its short-term valuation ratios.

“This simply brings forward earnings to the present, like government selling assets to fix a short-term budget hole but losing the long-term revenue.”

The research said if Telstra was to earn $15 billion it could use $5 billion to pay down debt and $10 billion on a mega share buyback.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 10 2017, 12:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Interesting video, Chanos seems to be arguing against privatisation, in particular re healthcare.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: May 5 2017, 08:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

ACCC to not impose roaming onto telstra.

https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-...-mobile-roaming
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 5 2017, 07:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

ACCC decision on roaming due today, Friday.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 4 2017, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Brokers tend to give advice after the event; not an unreasonable move for a business not known for its accuracy however could trigger larger sells.p
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Apr 13 2017, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

TPG already competes with Telstra using Vodaphones network; now they want to build their own using a fraction of what Telstra has spent. Not really a viable alternative to Telstra (IMHO).
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 29 2016, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

At this stage it's a concept which, fortunately, they will be trialling before implementing.

If only they had done that with Masters.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 28 2016, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

On the plus side this will help with their black hole aka Masters. The downside is that the loss of revenue will be significant as shoppers will still be able to redeem their fuel discount.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 10 2016, 04:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Costco may be more appropriate in the US, where wages are diabolical and purchasing power is heavily discounted. Don't say that it won't ever happen here.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 10 2016, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Only a few weeks ago Mr Montgomery said that he was happy to be holding, continues to like and reaffirmed previous advice that SRX should be on the radar of every value investor.

I think he may have just got hoisted by his own skaffold.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 30 2016, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Roger Montgomery was keen on beating up Telstra by comparing it to one of his favourite acquisitions, M2 Group.

The thing about Telstra is that it is still here.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Oct 31 2016, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

AFR

QUOTE
The bank is expected to say it has reached a conclusion on a review concerning the future of its retail and wealth division in Asia.

It's understood ANZ has agreed a deal with Singapore's DBS Bank.

DBS is believed to be buying the bulk of the business, including ANZ's retail branches in Asia.

An ANZ spokesman declined to comment.

  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Oct 10 2016, 06:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Woolies pressure was internal, triggered not caused by Aldi. Very bad management and very bad management practices (am I sounding like the Trumpeter?). Masters was and will continue to be their Frankenstein.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 30 2016, 03:47 PM


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Posts: 2,106

+1
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Aug 31 2016, 06:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Well that's interesting and is why I first bought into woollies. Apparently they can sell stuff.

But, and it's a big but, these retail superstars also created Masters.

Apparently there is a clearing sale on at Masters, but you wouldn't know it.

I'm thinking the exec management are seriously overpaid.

BTW I recently sold the lot, not convinced that they are on a good thing.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Aug 9 2016, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

ANZ was once heavily ramped by analysts, no doubt bedazzled by Smiths reassuring patter.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Apr 22 2016, 10:23 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Virtual QE,debt 247% GDP

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2016-04/0...nt_38186966.htm
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Mar 19 2016, 05:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

One of my better buys.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 18 2015, 07:40 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Rating Action: Moody's places ratings of BHP Billiton on Plc. Other ratings placed on review include the A2 senior unsecured ratings of WMC Finance (USA) Limited, the A3 subordinated note ratings of BHP Billiton Finance (USA) Limited and BHP Billiton Finance Limited, and the (P)A2 senior unsecured MTN programme rating of WMC Finance Ltd.
The review was prompted by the precipitous decline and persistent weakness in commodity prices and follows the recent downward revisions of Moody's oil and natural gas price assumptions on 15-December 2015 and Moody's base metals and bulk commodity prices on 08-December 2015.

Moody's does not expect commodity prices shift significantly in 2016 from the low levels observed in late 2015, which have touched multi-year lows for several commodities. For the calendar years 2016 and 2017, Moody's current price assumptions for major commodities produced by BHP Billiton include: Brent crude averaging USD43 and USD48 per barrel; iron ore 62% Fe China averaging USD40 and USD45 per tonne (t); high quality metallurgical coal averaging USD80/t and USD85/t; and Copper averaging USD2.15 and USD2.35 per pound; respectively. Moody's also assumes Newcastle thermal coal will average USD55/t for both years.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The review for downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that weak commodity prices will persist for the next several years, significantly reducing BHP Billiton's earnings and cash flow generation" says Matthew Moore, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer, adding "As a result we expect BHP Billiton's credit metrics to deteriorate beyond our expectations for the current rating, absent further countermeasures".

Moody's expects that BHP Billiton's key credit metric of adjusted debt to EBITDA will increase to around 2.0-2.5x over the next 18 months. Based on the current progressive dividend levels and the company's capital expenditure guidance, Moody's expects that this metric will not return to a more appropriate level for the rating over the next several years. Moody's expects BHP Billiton to maintain adjusted debt to EBITDA below 1.5x on a consistent basis at the current A1 rating. Also, cash flow from operations (minus dividends) to debt will decline sharply, reflecting Moody's expectation for reduced cash flow and the company's large dividends. Moody's expects CFO (less dividends) to debt to reduce to 20-25% over the next several years, which is a weak level for the current rating.

"The review will focus on the potentially very significant countermeasures the company is able to employ -- and the willingness to employ such measures -- to protect its credit metrics in the lower price environment" says Moore, adding "Specifically Moody's will be reviewing the company's ability to further reduce operating costs and capital expenditures, as well as its ability and willingness to reduce its ongoing dividends".

In the unlikely event that BHP Billiton takes no material countermeasures, the firm's ratings are very likely to be downgraded. In light of the severe and broad-based declines in commodity prices, a downgrade could remain a possibility, even if the firm takes countermeasures but they are insufficient to ensure a clear path for the firm's credit metrics to return to levels appropriate for an A1 rating over the next 18-24 months. However, a ratings downgrade is likely to be limited to one notch to A2. Moody's expects to complete the rating review over the next 60 to 90 days.

Counterbalancing the degradation in financial metrics is the global strength of BHP Billiton's metals and mining portfolio and its substantial product and geographic diversity. The majority of the company's assets are comfortably positioned in the lower half of the cost curve, which will allow BHP Billiton to generate stronger margins than many of its mining peers.

The rating also continues to reflect the company's solid position in oil and gas. However, the very weak industry conditions in this segment are challenging the benefits of this diversification.

BHP Billiton's liquidity remains solid, reflecting its large cash position of around USD6.8 billion at 30 June 2015 and the additional funds raised through its USD6.5 billion hybrid notes issuance in October 2015. The company's liquidity position also benefits from an undrawn USD6.0 billion revolving credit facility which expires in May 2020 and has a one year extension option. The facility has no material adverse change (MAC) provisions and contains no financial covenants. The above, combined with the company's demonstrated track record of capital markets access during industry downturns, leads Moody's to expect that the company's debt maturities of around USD5.6 billion over FY16 and FY17 will be manageable.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Mining Industry published in August 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

BHP Billiton is the world's largest diversified natural resources Group, with operations primarily focused in petroleum, iron ore, coal and copper.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Matthew Moore
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Pty. Ltd.
Level 10
1 O'Connell Street
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 10 2015, 11:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Pump price must reflect falling AUD?

Speaking of which, if the board cut the div (in USD) there's a good chance the div in AUD will remain unchanged.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 3 2015, 06:47 AM


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Deutsche Bank picks both RIO and BHP as a buy for 2016 - attractive dividend yield and solid balance sheet being reason enough.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 3 2015, 06:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Deutsche Bank picks both RIO and BHP as a buy for 2016 - attractive dividend yield and solid balance sheet being reason enough.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 1 2015, 06:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Yes, my error, not spot but futures.



  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 30 2015, 02:50 PM


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Spot price has dropped below $40

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...holdings-expand
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 26 2015, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Another option might be to average down (I'm betting that it will all blow over so bought a few more)
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 1 2015, 09:17 AM


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Not OPEC more that production data indicate US shale oil has peaked.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 31 2015, 05:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
Assessing just how large the bubble has grown in U.S. markets as a result of the Fed’s zero-bound interest rate strategy since December 2008
The only reason that market values have increased is that traders keep buying and selling them. Its trader -vs- trader as money moves freely between them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 28 2015, 04:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Anyway, I'm wondering what percentage of this so called "correction" was driven by non humans ie algorithms, stop losses and the like. Seems that the falls could have been far worse due to braking, or curbing, mechanisms installed on the NYSE post 1987.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 25 2015, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

S&P futures now up 4% did you load up or what?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 25 2015, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
Anyway - today is my load up on the open day - amazing where you can find spare cash if you really want to . . .


That seems to be a good system - buy on the panic. I did that in 2008 and 2009 and did well - still hold most of them. Yield only.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 24 2015, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Still....Craig James.....
QUOTE
With a clear absence of ‘fundamental’ issues, the global sharemarket sell-off appears more a correction than the start of a new crisis. That’s especially the case when you consider that global sharemarkets had become over- valued..

But that doesn’t mean a swift recovery is forthcoming. That is, not until some key uncertainties are resolved.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 24 2015, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Timing was..ah..oh...spot on.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 13 2015, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

The Yuan is tied (pegged) to the $US which has appreciated against other currencies. This revaluation brings China back to the level of its customers;

QUOTE
All China is doing today is managing the pace of trade-weighted renminbi appreciation


http://fortune.com/2015/08/11/why-china-devalued-yuan/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Aug 12 2015, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

On a fundamental basis this devaluation by China seems like a sign of desperation and with many larger economies in austerity mode things could spiral downwards. So I am not confident that the outlook, in Australia, could be called bullish. Our trashing of the manufacturing and export sectors during the commodity boom leaves our economy without any real support.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jul 9 2015, 05:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

I sympathise with your dilemma and believe that the course you have taken to be most prudent. My own viewpoint is that I am unable to predict the movement of shares for any particular moment and my only strongly held belief is that there is no evidence that anyone else is more able. However, I do know that the world has been through the most dreadful of times yet the trend of the market has been up.

Buying low selling high is an attractive strategy but you do have to realise that it is just gambling and gamblers eventually lose. It's inevitable.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Apr 1 2015, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Despite wars, revolutions, depressions and other calamities
QUOTE
common stock equity risk premium has averaged about 4.1% from 1872 to 2000



http://www.theskilledinvestor.com/ss.item....-over-time.html
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 31 2015, 01:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106


Ben Bernanke is now blogging.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 22 2015, 08:57 AM


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Posts: 2,106

For goodness sake, Dr Malgrem was economic advisor to GWB including corporate governance, bank regulation etc etc


  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Mar 5 2015, 08:46 AM


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The problem with Australia pursuing a commodity led boom has been that the Capex has been inflationary requiring monetary intervention by the RBA resulting in a high AUD thereby effectively wiping out many export oriented businesses.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 28 2015, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Interest rates (price or cost of money) has been one tool used to keep inflation low.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 28 2015, 06:04 AM


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Posts: 2,106

Nett debt, not gross debt, as % of GDP



  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 28 2015, 05:57 AM


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Posts: 2,106

The high interest rates by the RBA were to slow the high inflation of the 80s.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 27 2015, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
As the future is now highly unpredictabl
Absolutely, but you are not disinclined to forecast?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

The success of Apple and other companies highlights the failure of resources. CSL is another 10 bigger that I foolishly sold.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 05:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
we were talking about listed companies


No you weren't, you were talking about monetary policy ie money supply and its influence on a share price.

But go ahead, place your bet.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 04:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

The 'whole' market is cash, bonds, property, shares...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
you're probably one who would have paid millions for a tulip bulb, or the short end of a stick in Charles the II rein.


Right, a grade A troll
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 11:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

and with respect I don't think that you are getting it. Markets are not distorted because one listing grows faster than the index, markets are distorted by regulation or some other restriction normally placed by government.

The fundamentals support CBA sp and until those fundamentals change the sp is reasonable.

HIA usually bang on about high % rates influencing construction - now they feel able to comment on macro economics. The RBA have always said that mining will fall and they expected to ease monetary policy to allow construction to pick up.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 03:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
..a very sizable spread has developed between CBA and the S&P50. These sort of spreads don't develop by accident. They exist because of distortions in markets..


Are you saying that the market is distorted, or the price of CBA is distorted, or the index is distorted, or what?

A properly functioning market reflects the quantum of its constituents. Markets are distorted when buyers and sellers are prevented or restricted from achieving their purpose by an outside body.

If CBA moves ahead of other similar financials is that due to a distortion or merely that the fundamentals of the company have proved to be more valuable?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 19 2015, 06:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
quantum mechanics and biochemistry are sciences and economics is not. If it was a science it would be taught in the ence department


The distinction lies between a scientific and non scientific approach to economics, hence the Nobel prize for Economic Science.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 19 2015, 06:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

At some point the experts must be listened to; austerity will eventually consume itself.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 16 2015, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Scott Sumner on unqualified experts
QUOTE
I don't think many people would be insulted if you told them that they are not qualified to debate quantum mechanics, or biochemistry. But they do get offended when you tell them they are not qualified to debate macroeconomics. Why is that?


http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/0...an_opinion.html

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:44 PM


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Posts: 2,106

I bought a few CBA then some and then a few more, paid going rates av $45 - why was I so nervous?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Feb 4 2015, 06:37 AM


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Posts: 2,106

Nouriel Robini

QUOTE
One result of this global monetary-policy activism has been a rebellion among pseudo-economists and market hacks in recent years. This assortment of “Austrian” economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs, and Bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the US dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital krypto-currency counterparts.

None of these dire predictions has been borne out by events. Inflation is low and falling in almost all advanced economies; indeed, all advanced-economy central banks are failing to achieve their mandate – explicit or implicit – of 2% inflation, and some are struggling to avoid deflation. Moreover, the value of the dollar has been soaring against the yen, euro, and most emerging-market currencies. Gold prices since the fall of 2013 have tumbled from $1,900 per ounce to around $1,200. And Bitcoin was the world’s worst-performing currency in 2014, its value falling by almost 60%.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentar...S9Ch0fbpILrx.99
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 30 2015, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
We invested too much in coal and iron ore and ignored the fact that if you throw enough money into development of new mines and ports then supply will inevitably meet demand.


This was addressed in the Henry Tax Review, a poorly debated topic left open to manipulation and distortion by vested interests.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 29 2015, 06:17 PM


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One example of how far we have fallen is that someone like Nathan Tinkler is regarded as a very important person.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 29 2015, 06:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
The major source of Australia's wealth is now from mining
unfortunately so, because of our fascination with quarries our capex has blown out the CPI keeping % rates high with the consequence of a high $au thereby ruining many export sectors. We made a bad choice getting into bed with miners as all they leave you with is a mess which you have to clean up, they even export their profits.

So much for the "clever country".
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 8 2015, 04:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

As a general rule I avoid forecasts...particularly when they are given for free. Let's look at what else Bill Goss has said
QUOTE
“[I’ve] been selling Treasurys because they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden,” Bill said. “Unless entitlements [namely Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid] are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt.”
Date? April 6, 2011
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Jan 5 2015, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

In Reply To: Barra's post @ Today, 06:11 PM
QUOTE
Governments are printing money and lending it to themselves.


That's how money is created, a govt creates a debt then lends to itself. Those countries in the EU are limited to borrowing from bond markets to raise cash as they have lost their sovereignty and are subject to market volatility.

The problem is that govts are fixated on monetary policy, not fiscal policy. The private sector is not able to create demand, they are limited to pursuing cost reduction to increase profits. Govts are reducing spending to meet reduced revenue from the private sector. It is now painfully obvious that lowering interest rates has not stimulated sufficient demand to provide full employment.

Politics needs to shake itself out of this unfounded obsession with debt and govts need to invest in the nation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Dec 29 2014, 09:08 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Well, after today's trading it just goes to show that you cant believe everything you read in the papers. Woolies set to burn more shorters.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 18 2014, 02:23 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Its all bad news for Woolies - rumour of a profit downgrade plus unconscionable conduct wont help to stiffen punters resolve.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 12 2014, 12:33 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Business Spectator

The break up and sell off of the NBN could be good for Telstra

QUOTE
for the government and particularly Turnbull, who is destined to be remembered as Telstra’s Alan Bond, 2014 will be remembered as the year that the government took a wrong turn and consigned Australia to the broadband back blocks.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 12:51 PM


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Posts: 2,106

This forecast was made last August

QUOTE
Based on sum-of-the-parts valuation, we believe Regeneus is substantially undervalued at the current share price of AUD 0.26. Using our valuation model, the Company’s total value is AUD 177 million, or AUD 0.90 per share. This represents a 250% upside from the current share price.

Same forecast different date?
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 7 2014, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Opinion is just that, opinion.
QUOTE
A prior is often the purely subjective assessment of an experienced expert

The problem is that non experts are not expert in assessing who is an expert.
IMO.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Nov 24 2014, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
The QuantiFERON-TB latent tuberculosis test delivered strong gains in the U.S. and Europe, in line with a 20% CER annual growth rate, and remains on track to exceed $100 million of sales in 2014.


Of course the existing sales team at Qiagen who have had some influence on this figure.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 11 2014, 07:35 AM


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Posts: 2,106

From the recent ann
QUOTE
John Martin, the Executive Chairman, will step down as Chairman and take on the role of CEO effective immediately, with a focus on taking actions necessary to increase commercial and partnering activities and reducing costs. His job is to unlock the value in the company's product pipeline and close the gap between the value of the assets and the share price.

Denis Kilroy tried that with Solagran
QUOTE
Independent non-executive director, Dr Roger Aston, has been appointed as Independent Chairman.. Dr Aston will work closely with the new CEO in making sure that the market and all stakeholders have a clear understanding of the company's strategy and plans to build shareholder value over the next phase.

Ditto, the executive appear to be aligning the business to the share price.
QUOTE
Dr Ben Herbert, will step down from the Board with immediate effect. Dr Herbert played a key role as a co-founder of Regeneus in 2007 and has made a significant contribution since start-up as a founding non-executive director. The Board thanks him for this service.

That's a serious move and I would think that the findings of the peer reviewed NSH study have had lingering consequences.



  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Oct 22 2014, 04:47 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Oh Dear
For the Luddites FB is more than just "a look at me" phenomenon. It's used by many organisations like police and sports groups to keep in touch. Its a way of communicating, a notice board accessible to all, anywhere and anytime.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Oct 20 2014, 07:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Thoughtful piece by Robert Shiller on tribalism and group think;

QUOTE
Fundamentally, stock markets are driven by popular narratives, which don’t need basis in solid fact. True or not, such stories may be described as “thought viruses.” When they are pernicious, they are analogous to the Ebola virus: They spread by contagion.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

rog
Posted on: Oct 8 2014, 04:12 PM


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Following on, the statement attributed to Ben Herbert "There's many statements on the record from Regeneus to do with placebo and pain reduction.." does not address the issue of the poorly worded ASX release.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Oct 8 2014, 03:00 PM


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IMO one problem and perhaps the problem lies with this announcement to the ASX where they had neglected to advise that the performance of the placebo group was identical to the treated group.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Oct 7 2014, 01:36 PM


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The trading halt, to "consider and respond to recent media commentary", is a brave but ultimately futile gesture.
The substantial commentary was not by the media, it was made by medical experts and reported in the media. If RGS want to publicly debate their business with industry leaders via the media then so be it, this is now out of their control.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 18 2014, 10:07 AM


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Two years later..
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 5 2013, 08:01 AM


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Banks have been very good to my SMSF with this latest div pushing WBC returns to 15.3% pa plus a capital gain of +45%.

Buy in the dips and never sell.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 22 2013, 12:06 PM


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Comment from BBY;

QUOTE
Regeneus Shares Strong in Market Debut
BBY | 19 September 2013 | 0 comments

Regeneus Ltd (RGS) shares increased more than 15% in their market debut yesterday. Shares touched a high of A$0.29 in trading during the day, closing at A$0.27 valuing the company at A$49.6M at the end of the day.

BBY Limited played an instrumental role as joint manager in the Offer alongside Peloton Capital and successfully raised A$10.5 million in cash proceeds. The company intends to use the proceeds to fund its commercialization strategy, further R&D initiatives, capital expenditures and working capital.

Regeneus Ltd is a regenerative medicine company that is commercialising cell-based therapies for treating conditions such as arthritis, in humans and animals.

Regeneus is expanding its existing revenue streams by rolling out its human and veterinary stem cell products across Australia, with additional near term revenue to come from the launch of its human stem cell treatment in overseas markets including Singapore and the United Kingdom.

Drivers of longer term revenue growth include potential US FDA approval of its veterinary stem cell product, while recent regulatory changes open the pathway to fast-track approval of its off-the-shelf human stem cell product in Japan.

  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 17 2013, 06:32 AM


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Listing delayed by ASX, this Thursday at the earliest.
The reason given is delays in document transmission.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 13 2013, 06:32 AM


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Tim Boreham (Criterion) has expressed some interest
QUOTE
This one's definitely worth watching on ASX debut on Tuesday -- on the usual proviso you should never subsidise someone else's stag profits

Stockbroker BBY is still pushing the line
QUOTE
Stem cell companies are attracting a lot of interest at the moment after the spectacular stock market debut of ReproCell in Japan. Stock in ReproCell commenced trading at 5x its IPO issue price in June 2013, and is still trading at around 3x the IPO price. ReproCell has a current market cap of AUD $857 million. BBY is proud to have been a front-runner in this rapidly evolving market.

Interesting times ahead
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 11 2013, 07:22 AM


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Hi MM & MW,
seems they are still sorting out share issues with ASX eg escrow acknowledgements etc.
It appears that for the ASX to accept a listing compliance must be complete.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 7 2013, 06:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Stockbroker BBY is excited
QUOTE
Stem cell companies are hot at the moment, after the spectacular stock market debut of ReproCell in Japan. That stock commenced trading at 5x its IPO issue price in June 2013, and is still trading at more than 3x the IPO price five weeks after listing. In this environment, I expect the upcoming IPO of Australian stem cell company Regeneus on the ASX to attract a high degree of interest.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 6 2013, 07:26 AM


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Regeneus in the ASX starting blocks waiting for the starters signal. Listing date 11 September.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Aug 27 2013, 11:10 PM


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Fast track approval process could see Regeneus launch into Japan within 3-4 years.
Link
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Aug 27 2013, 06:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

Something from the Scientist Magazine, about a surge in Biotech IPOs



QUOTE
This April, Chimerix announced it was going public at an initial offering of $14 per share. Initial public offerings (IPOs) are no small feat, particularly for biotech companies. In the years preceding Chimerix’s IPO, the public market was a tough nut to crack for such firms. Yet so far this year, nearly 30 other biotechs have joined Chimerix in going public. “There hasn't been an IPO window of this magnitude since the 2000 time frame,” said Luke Evnin, the managing director at MPM Capital, a venture capital firm focused on the life sciences. “It’s been more than a decade since we’ve had access to capital like we have now in the public markets.”

A number of factors have contributed to this current wave of biotech IPOs. Emily Mendel, a spokesperson for the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), said part of the reason is that the pipeline has simply been backing up over the last few years. “Companies have not been comfortable going out. . . . There was a lot of market uncertainty, and they might have been waiting for the right time,” she said. “And I think the right time has come.”


  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 17 2013, 09:36 PM


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More here, ABC RN
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/internati...-humans/1131846
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 17 2013, 05:58 PM


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For those CST who are still with us smile.gif
Messrs Radford Rothel Woods & Jones have been awarded a gong.

http://www.atse.org.au/Documents/Publicati...0May%202013.pdf
And good on em too.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Sep 21 2012, 10:53 PM


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Posts: 2,106

Therein lies the problem - that they were unaware of the profitability of all their projects, including but not limited to HV4. Construction business is always tight, margins narrow to non existent with profits derived from variations. The payoff is that, for a short period of time, you get to hold a lot of cash. Successful construction requires discipline with constant monitoring of costs and cash flow. So for MAH to get themseles into a position where they just don't know what is going wrong indicates poor or none quality management.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: May 2 2012, 05:58 PM


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What is there to communicate?

It is or was a crap product ramped up by a bunch of spivs who sold it to another bunch of suckers.

Too much information?
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 21 2011, 06:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
I think posters who post on forums where they don't hold stock, are really sad, sad individuals who don't have a life

Here's me thinking that holders of SLA are the really really sad, sad individuals who don't have a life. Glad to be proven wrong. blink.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 29 2010, 05:37 AM


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Saudi guidelines here
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 22 2010, 04:39 PM


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Maybe it was COB in Kyrgyzstan
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 21 2010, 07:55 PM


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Maybe oilleak but so far 90% of the prediction has failed.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 21 2010, 08:05 AM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
Well, according to the above post by new_kid, we now have a 100% chance of receiving the "good news" by COB Friday.


Yes but, like the Norwegian Blue parrot the 90% element has expired..Wednesday was the favourite by a country mile
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 14 2010, 10:45 AM


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One thing to bear in mind - a flat or weak HY result appears to have already been factored in
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image



 
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 14 2010, 08:09 AM


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Posts: 2,106

Link

I think it is in alphabetical order
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 12 2010, 10:41 AM


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By academics I meant those with academic qualifications eg, the CEO of BHP has a Ph.D and both VW and Bayer CropScience being run by professors with a Ph.D.

  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 12 2010, 07:59 AM


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Posts: 2,106

rileyi,

that is a reasonable theory but before endorsing it I would need to see some evidence that the theory works.

In general successful companies are run by academics, not salesmen. The CEO delegates sales to a sales team, that is what the CEO does best - delegate and manage.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 11 2010, 10:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
I do believe that it was said "less science, more sales" at the December meeting in Melbourne.


Unfortunately it is the science that makes or breaks sales - without science as a reference it will be difficult to find anybody with credibility to risk that credibility backing the method or product.

Additionally the quality of the science is important as it lends confidence.

That is how it works and why it costs so much to get medical products to the market.
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rog
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 03:04 PM


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QUOTE
i reckon the buyer placed at least one of those sells at $3.27 - and had to buy off himself!!!


I saw that and wondered what was up!
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rog
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 02:59 PM


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A bit of off screen trading this morning..

..I guess the market is happy with 'how things are goin' ?
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rog
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 10:34 AM


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QUOTE
Finally Does anybody agree with me that irrespective of being fair or not to current shareholder, and you know my opinion about that, such a sweet deal is just a bad look for the market.


Thinking about it a little further, we have always assumed that Cellestis was "tightly held" with directors sitting on a large chunk and that perceptions of liquidity, or lack thereof being a potential hurdle for big buyers.

By selling on market the directors have challenged those assumptions.

That has to be a good not bad look for the market
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rog
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 09:57 AM


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Skorpian - I knew that logic would prevail!
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rog
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 09:14 AM


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Other way around, first you ask "So how are things going?" - then buy $4M stock

Seems logical to me
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rog
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 08:33 AM


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The facts of the matter is that someone wanted 1.3M shares and the directors were able to meet that need.

Irrespective of the timing the directors did not dump them on the market.

All the rest is just grumbling


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rog
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 07:43 AM


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A few points EB,

AFAIK the directors did not place the stock on the market, the market (so to speak) sought them out. There is a subtle difference to intent.

I am still not convinced that they know the sales down to the last dollar however I would be surprised that sales would be less than forecasted at the AGM (which was for only 4 of the 6 month reporting period). In fact, knowing their innate conservatism I am confident in saying that they are not in possession of material information that had not been released to the market at the time of the trade

However as far as strategy and timing are concerned, it was a very poor decision on both counts particularly when so close to HY results and during the 'blackout period'
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rog
Posted on: Jan 5 2010, 08:29 PM


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QUOTE
These guys must know what the next lot of sales figures will be.


How do you know this?


  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 5 2010, 08:55 AM


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QUOTE
Where would I find that information ???


Here
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jan 5 2010, 08:51 AM


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Actually it was an 'on market' transaction but negotiated 'off market'...is there a category for that?

More likely it was a broker who used the ASX as a vehicle to transfer stock between willing parties.
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rog
Posted on: Jan 5 2010, 08:21 AM


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ASX definition

Liquidity is the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without shifting its price.

In this case it was off market so none of the definitions apply.


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rog
Posted on: Jan 4 2010, 05:28 AM


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I am happy that someone has enough faith in the future of the company to invest ~$3.78M.
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rog
Posted on: Dec 30 2009, 04:28 PM


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and this is the sum of TST and QFT...

..but dont take my word for it..





Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
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rog
Posted on: Dec 30 2009, 04:19 PM


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and this is TST



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
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rog
Posted on: Dec 30 2009, 04:13 PM


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This is QFT
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
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rog
Posted on: Dec 30 2009, 12:27 PM


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There should be an ASX notice for a director sale or purchase.


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rog
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 08:03 AM


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Kelpie,

the CDC have already published a "sneak peek"
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 08:08 PM


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.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 08:07 PM


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...and here
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Nov 22 2009, 06:27 PM


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It's worth considering that we now seem to have passed the majority of exchange rate volatility and earnings, expressed in $AU, should continue to grow in the 2nd half of the financial year.
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rog
Posted on: Nov 20 2009, 02:45 PM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
lack of genuine forward sales/profit guidance from CST is stunning.


Japan: – Distributor’s sales of 2G have increased from prior corresponding period

Growth in first 4 months of FY2010 in US, EMEA and ROW – On an average monthly basis, 37% growth over same period last year


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rog
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 05:43 PM


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QUOTE
I remembered that section 201C age rule under the Corporation Act was repealed.


Given that the rule was debated in 1997 and repealed in 2003 what exactly is it that you want me to remember?
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rog
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 04:17 PM


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Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
I decided to lighten up a bit after the AGM


I'm all ears - are you using prunes?
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rog
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

QUOTE
Don't mention 'use by date', but with 50 years experience in the accounting profession he can't have long to go.
At age 70, he must be knocking on the age limit door for a Director to hold office.


Probably bordering on defamatory, and reflects poorly on the poster.





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rog
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 04:10 PM


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You have to ask yourself what you want out of a chairman; do want someone who will wrap knuckles to protect shareholders interests or do you want someone who looks good on celebrity Masterchef.

I can buy a burger anywhere but I want my investment to have full protection


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rog
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 10:38 PM


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Very upbeat - they had all the staff there, from US and EU - very much on the forefoot.
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rog
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 01:58 PM


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Order filled, 77K @ $3.6
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rog
Posted on: Nov 8 2009, 07:54 AM


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More stuff;
  • CDC provisional guidelines
  • travel medicine and IGRA
  • testing of foreign students
  • US immigration approves QFT

get educated!
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rog
Posted on: Nov 5 2009, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106


It certainly does appear that the writer has had his ear bent, if I could get "21 megabits through wireless in most of the country" I would be happy
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rog
Posted on: Nov 5 2009, 05:42 AM


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Wall Street Journal NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Australia's Broadband Blunder

By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.


As annoying as it may be that bankers defend their pay, that Goldman Sachs insists on every dollar owed it by now-taxpayer-backed AIG, that businesses everywhere lobby in their own interests—well, it could be worse. To adapt a quip, the only thing more disagreeable than being lobbied by capitalists is not being lobbied by them.

Ask Phil Burgess. He's an American executive who recently gained fame in Australia as one of the "three amigos," a group of associates of U.S. telecom executive Sol Trujillo, who was hired to overhaul one of Australia's corporate icons, Telstra, the country's Ma Bell.

They came, they saw, they did as they said they would—and were roundly vilified in the Australian media. Mr. Trujillo, who left in February, was seldom caricatured without a sombrero and bandoleers, in obsessive reference to his Mexican heritage. Mr. Burgess, as Telstra's head of regulatory affairs, was the company's public face during the Trujillo years—"petulant" and "bellicose" was the verdict of the Sydney Morning Herald.

Their sin was to carry out the mission given them. Four years ago, Telstra was on its way to being fully privatized when Mr. Trujillo was recruited with a specific brief, in Mr. Burgess's words, to make it a "private sector, fast-moving company."

He did so. Head count was slashed. Aging and neglected infrastructure was upgraded. Three different wireless platforms were junked and replaced with the fastest, most-advanced 3G network in the world.

What most infuriated their hosts, though, was Telstra's abandonment of its traditional deference to policy makers. The company took regulators to court over mandates requiring it to lease its network to competitors at knockdown rates. Mr. Burgess bashed civil servants and politicians by name, in a fashion apparently deemed unbecoming a corporate citizen in Australia.

He argued in colorful terms that regulators not only were pillaging Telstra's 1.4 million shareholders, but undermining the very competition they claimed to be promoting by making it too easy for rivals to prosper without building their own networks.

And though he's back in the states now, Mr. Burgess hasn't let up, leading the charge against a new plan by Australia's Labor government to dismantle Telstra (which must be a surprise to investors who just bought shares from the government) in order to advance Labor's own dream of a government-operated national broadband network (known as NBN).

"If you don't call a blackmailer for what they are, you pay the price forever," Mr. Burgess told an Australian reporter during a recent return visit. He was referring to threatened legislation that would forbid Telstra from bidding for new wireless spectrum and force it to divest its Foxtel TV business unless it "voluntarily" plays ball with NBN.

Most interesting for an American audience right now, though, is the perspective Mr. Burgess brings home on the value of self-interested, even aggressive, business lobbying.

Australia lacks America's bottomless think-tank and K Street resources for publicizing policy differences. Its parliamentary government puts all the policy levers, including a ready resort to secrecy, in the ruling party's hands. Australia is a small nation, with a small elite that tends to place limits on burn-the-bridges debate.

This may sound ideal to Americans, but the results aren't always good, says Mr. Burgess. Australia, like America, has its "wingnuts," he says, but they don't get a hearing. "There's no sharpening of issues. Policy ideas aren't fully vetted."

The NBN, a tremendously awful idea, is a case in point. The government wants to spend $39 billion to deliver 100 megabits to every household in the next decade, without the slightest idea how it might be done commercially or whether customers, who already can get 21 megabits through wireless in most of the country, would be willing to support NBN's huge costs.

The government wants to seize Telstra's wholesale network partly to eliminate competition—i.e., even as Labor castigates Telstra as a "monopoly," it wants to create a true statutory monopoly.

Of course, it takes an unwonted faith in government to believe it will deliver the promised digital nirvana on-time, on-budget or at all. In the meantime, Telstra would have no incentive to invest in its own network, so Australia could end up with the worst of possible outcomes: neither a shiny new functioning government network nor an existing Telstra network that keeps pace with technology and customer demand.

Mr. Burgess no longer lives in Australia and no longer works for Telstra, and he certainly doesn't have the appreciation of most of the Australian media—but, by keeping up the fight, he just might be helping Australians avoid a terrible mistake.



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rog
Posted on: Nov 4 2009, 04:32 PM


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You guys need to get a grip;

"These assays are now used worldwide and their relatively simple technologies make them the most likely candidates to replace the TST in the near future, despite the lack of information on their effectiveness in TB control strategies in both Western and developing countries."


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rog
Posted on: Nov 2 2009, 07:27 PM


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Macmahon: Olympic Dam Incident Not Material To Current Fiscal Year Revenue

MELBOURNE -(Dow Jones)- Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (MAH.AU) said Monday that the shaft damage at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP.AU) Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine is likely to cut its contract revenue from the project by around A$10 million in the current financial year ending June.

However, Macmahon said the reduced workload isn't material to the group's overall earnings.

Macmahon provides mine development works at Olympic Dam mine in south Australia.

BHP said last month that the Clarke Shaft, one of the two haulage systems at Olympic Dam, was damaged, with ore hoisting likely to be at 25% of capacity until full production resumes in the March quarter.

"The temporary reduction in shaft haulage capacity has resulted in a short-term reduction in the scope of Macmahon's underground work," Macmahon said Monday.

"This has necessitated a restructuring and redeployment of some of the workforce, including some workers being reallocated to shaft repair works," Macmahon said.

-By Lyndal McFarland, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9292-2093; lyndal.mcfarland@dowjones.com
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rog
Posted on: Nov 2 2009, 06:32 AM


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My understanding is that the USPTO has assigned a grant of protection to the trademark "QFT."

28-Dec-2007 "This is a PROVISIONAL FULL REFUSAL of the trademark and/or service mark in the above-referenced U.S. application. "

21-October-2009 "Notification of Withdrawal of Provisional Refusal by the United States Patent & Trademark Office According to Rule 17(5)(a)(iii) of the Common Regulations"
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rog
Posted on: Oct 28 2009, 09:26 PM


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Showed this to Herself......she saw it to the end....thought it very funny and sent it to her mates...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

rog
Posted on: Oct 28 2009, 06:43 AM


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Bigger fish to fry.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 07:10 AM


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Hedging was covered in the 2008 annual report; it's well worth reading (they tell me that google is your friend)
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rog
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 05:17 AM


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QUOTE
will be granted patent status on 27/10/2007 (Tomorrow)


Exciting isn't it?
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rog
Posted on: Oct 25 2009, 07:52 PM


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QUOTE
Google is your friend when looking to be enlighten !


And here's me thinking that topiary is a just a fancy hedgerow.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 06:04 AM


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Something from Indonesia (translated)
QUOTE
JAKARTA: PT Duta Graha Indah Tbk took Macmahon Holdings Limited, Australian mining contractor, to work on infrastructure projects in Indonesia mining the potential for more wide-open market.

Duta Graha Company Secretary Djohan Halim said the move was to expand the field of construction work according to the company's long-term strategy to increase profits and guarantee contracts.

"This cooperation was signed in August, we made efforts to diversify mining sector because of this project is capital intensive and long term," he said, yesterday.

1 trillion RP = $A115.4M
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rog
Posted on: Oct 18 2009, 09:20 PM


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The best hedge is the one Cellestis put in place years ago - the costs of manufacture is in the place of sale.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 17 2009, 07:16 AM


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QUOTE
Have anyone here done any work on this and the impact this may have on reported earnings going forward?


Neither earnings or profit should see any significant damage - where the product is manufactured in the US and sold in the US there should be no change to profit and product sold outside eg to EU should have an increased profit margin. The repatriation of those profits to Aust should see some reduction.

Earnings should not be affected.

Having a manufacturing base in the US is a strong card.

It is quite different for companies like BHP which extract from australia and export in $US

Ditto CSL which has a large manufacturing base in Melbourne

They will have to increase earnings to offset profit loss.
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rog
Posted on: Oct 16 2009, 05:57 PM


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Clearly it's appropriate
QUOTE
soon (comparative sooner, superlative soonest) Occurring within a short time, or quickly.

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rog
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 04:14 PM


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This is the original patent application for QFT-G and should be read in that context.

The ref to dextrose is probably to the nutrient medium for incubation (sugar being the nutrient)

I cant see anything to get excited over
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rog
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 03:01 PM


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QUOTE
The TRANSACTION HISTORY of this application at the USPTO, now includes, this addition


Is there a link for this? I am not getting it
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rog
Posted on: Sep 24 2009, 05:29 PM


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Posts: 2,106

That's a very good point Crunndy, QFT is performed in a laboratory to precise national and international standards whereas TST is performed "in the field" and the standards of the TST cannot be measured or verified - in particular the standard of the person reading the lump.
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rog
Posted on: Sep 23 2009, 08:32 PM


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We can all hang our heads in shame....soundly beaten by a horse carved out of wood.

Report LINK
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rog
Posted on: Sep 6 2009, 03:59 PM


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QUOTE
Amount: An estimated $140,000
Terms:An estimated start date of 6/17/2009 through 6/30/2009, 1 months


Interesting henrietta, would that be $140K/month for 12 months? ($1.68M)

The original contract was for 3 years and (apparently) they are now experiencing an upsurge in demand.

The facility is University of Illinois at Chicago; the first item was for the City of Columbus.



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rog
Posted on: Sep 2 2009, 10:00 PM


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Here it is



Attached File(s)
Attached File  Radford___Thredbo.pdf ( 61.68K ) Number of downloads: 587

 
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rog
Posted on: Aug 6 2009, 05:22 PM


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Wots this loose talk about tanking?
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Aug 5 2009, 08:19 AM


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QUOTE
I am not big on trying to predict each little move up or down


Which is why it is more logical to concentrate on sales, costs, profits and dividends.
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jul 29 2009, 07:29 AM


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$3.80 and 1.5c div
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jul 23 2009, 05:51 PM


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I think that we will find that the prevalence of TB and particularly drug resistant TB in Russia has stirred action in some of the nouveau riche - there is little likelihood that those with MDR-TB, as portrayed in pictures of prison cells etc, will actually come into contact with the new oligarchs however the fear will be pervasive.

And they have money to burn!
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rog
Posted on: Jul 21 2009, 05:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106


LINK

ASX 200 rebalanced quarterly - March, June, September and December.

ASX 300 rebalanced every six months - March and September.

All Ords rebalanced annually - March

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rog
Posted on: Jul 10 2009, 10:44 PM


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Posts: 2,106


Saudi Arabia
"..it (QFT) is worth using, as delay in diagnosing difficult cases such as extrapulmonary is more costly to the patients (as it might cost them their lives)

Holland
"..a high PPV (positive predictive value) was observed for extrapulmonary TB and QFT-G might be considered in the diagnostic process in this situation


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rog
Posted on: Jun 22 2009, 03:26 PM


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Wrong film;

"what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas "
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 22 2009, 03:08 PM


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There is to be a Bioshares seminar at Thredbo and Tony Radford will be presenting
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 22 2009, 03:03 PM


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BM,

they are on www.bioshares.com.au but it is a pay site so you will have to fork out for the report..

..having said that they devoted this month to Cellestis and it appears that Cellestis have had some input eg
  • contract with Quest Diagnostic
  • eight of the nine major pathology groups in the US have adopted the test
  • currently tracking at selling around 2 million tests a year.. increased by around 80% in the last year.
  • continue to distribute dividends, although a cash balance of around $20 million will be maintained.
  • tipping point for..we would argue is approaching
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 9 2009, 07:08 AM


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CSL calls off Talecris takeover

QUOTE
CSL Chief Executive Brian McNamee said the company disagreed with the FTC, but its board said entering into a battle with the agency was not in the best interests of stakeholders.

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rog
Posted on: Jun 8 2009, 03:30 PM


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FTC applied to have all material made public and the court ruled against the FTC

Link
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rog
Posted on: Jun 7 2009, 11:55 PM


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More stuff here (requires pre registration which is free)
  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 5 2009, 11:34 PM


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http://www.igrasymposium.com/agenda.html
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rog
Posted on: Jun 5 2009, 10:48 AM


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Draughtsman,

if the immune status of <5 year olds is the issue then the TST is less suitable as, unlike QFT, it has no ability to measure immune status.


  Forum: By Share Code

rog
Posted on: Jun 4 2009, 05:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,106

I think you guys have the wrong end of the stick, the ASX only require an entity to supply guidance when
QUOTE
they become aware of an expected material difference... from forecasts for that period that have been provided to the market by the entity


As Cellestis have stated on numerous occasions, they are not in the business of providing forecasts.




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