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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
polyphemus
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 04:04 PM
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In Reply To: LevelHeaded2000's post @ Aug 15 2019, 03:28 PM

Yes I have cash and am on the side line, but getting antsy with the marketing requirements coming up in early September.
I would like to see a couple of days with negative shorts. That would signal capitulation.
The price would have bounced of lows but i would prefer to miss the low to avoid catching a falling knife.



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Johnny H
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 03:41 PM
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In Reply To: polyphemus's post @ Aug 15 2019, 03:06 PM

Totally agree, with one thing to add in re: arbitrage.

The ADR agreement allows for up to 30% "pre-release" (read: counterfeit) CLVLY shares, entirely at BNY Mellon's discretion. As an American, I find this entirely offensive. Pre-release isn't subject to the usual REG-SHO short reporting requirements. There's no way to determine how much of the float is actually "real".



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Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.

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LevelHeaded2000
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 03:28 PM
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At this point I think there is irrational shorting / selling exuberance. Let me explain: Shorting thesis has been reinforced with the declining price, so they keep shorting causing more price decline (self-reinforcing). Normal retails investors who are not smart enough to be on this board likely have been watching the declines and now see the whole market declining. At various price points along the way they get duped into panic selling some shares.

Buyers are sitting on the side lines. They are salivating, but they are all saying "Wait a bit more and maybe I can get a better price" thus they are not buying. These psychological mechanisms are reinforcing the price declines.

The good news is these mechanisms will all be quickly reversed as soon as the trend changes. All the buyers will be panic buying as soon as the trend reverses. So, the question becomes how long will the trend continue? Hard to say mostly due to the global stock context going on now (asx 200 down 3% as I type). However, my guess is that we are near bottoms. Today we also hit the mid point of the 52-week range. (11 to 39, current price 25).

I do believe that sideline buyers will be feeling more urgent to buy and sellers will become less willing to sell very soon. Simply because the stock looks very, very over-sold.


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polyphemus
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 03:06 PM
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In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:37 AM

Yes naked shorts can be very dangerous. I worked with a group that had bought 110% of equity in an aussie listed company last century - clearly should not happen, the group got very rich. Same thing happened to Volkswagon in 2008 "Short sellers make VW the world's priciest firm" (Reuters 2008) .

Shorting pollutes natural Demand and Supply mechanisms. Swings can be wild.

Australian law is quite specific on the naked exceptions RG196 (ASIC 2018)

As there are no ETO's or Warrants on CUV it is fair to conclude that the bulk of the shorts are speculation vs say arbitrage advantage between markets. I smell opportunity.

To use the analogy of shorting printing extra CUV shares then there are 105% of capital in CUV shares out there.
How much can they borrow to support their view...?
There should be a profit to be made from a medium term trade here or sitting with a sell order at a ridiculous price waiting the irrational exuberance on buy back.
There are 2.5m shares short @9th Aug. Daily avg volume is 276,000.
Ten days of trading to cover positions and as daily shorts are between 30-50% of volume, it will take a good month to buy back.

There are 2 up coming realities possible -
1. FDA approval which means significant revenue growth in 2020, $50m in cash will be pushed to Vitiligo Phase 3 trials or
2. FDA not approved which means only double digit growth in revenue. $50m in cash will be pushed to other endeavors such as topical I.P, XP / VP Europe.

The company does not need cash, it is not going bankrupt and has zero debt. It has cash and has a recurring revenue source. If FDA approval that recurring revenues jumps to ~$30m + in 2020 and ~$50m from 2021 after tax. That is no requirement to raise capital for Vitiligo. If non approval then recurring revenues would grow by low double digit 2020 and 2021 - but as the other indications are orphan the expense of trials would be less. That is no requirements to raise capital. With a mid term view the company would appear to be a low risk investment. Yes they should pay dividends.
With Topical formulations management has as yet to describe what markets that would be in and just as importantly how long that would take to generate cash flow. As for statements on organic and non organic growth it would be nice if management could elaborate more at the GM.
QUOTE
•Translational use and growth
•Orphan indications and pigmentary disorder vitiligo (skin types IV-VI)
•2ndgeneration melanocortins �"Rx
•OTC products for larger audience






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xray
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:37 AM

Shorters are running out of ammo.
We are deep into oversold territory.
My opinion is the shorters are actually long.
get ready for the turn.

P.s..you can blame the ineptitude and secrecy of Walnut and co for this short rout.
Takeover coming.



 
Johnny H
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:37 AM
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In Reply To: LJS's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:33 AM

Naked shorting is counterfeiting. Period.



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Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.
 


LJS
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:33 AM
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In Reply To: polyphemus's post @ Aug 15 2019, 09:02 AM

Agree totally with the 'naked' shorting. It's easy money for lazy funds and brokers to lend shares and the affect compounds along with any 'normal' short positions, stop loss triggers and any emotional loss takers. There is ample liquidity in the market anyway and there are other market option to take up a short position in stocks as you discuss. No question as we get close to a final answer, the shorters could be setting up for major losses (or gains if the hopefully unlikely occurs). GLTA


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Dr Wally
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:01 AM
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“arzneggs” German for -ignorant, progress delaying regulator-



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50+ on or before PDUFA... GLTA that have seen the future and kept the faith. 😎 Scenesse 100% will be approved. Too safe, too beneficial to the health of millions. Logic and community pressure will eventually prevail over regulator ignorance.
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Fortescue Bullro...
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 09:05 AM
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In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Aug 15 2019, 02:43 AM

I don’t know what “arzneggs” are, maybe it’s untranslatable, but it seems we are in the arznegg business.


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polyphemus
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 09:02 AM
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In Reply To: investek's post @ Aug 14 2019, 03:51 PM

Sorry i dont have access currently to unmasked data - as there is 5% short it will all be Insto that have access to large nominee pools of stock they can borrow. Generally the only naked shorting in Australia is from market makers hedging risk, but this still requires stock lending to cover post transaction.
I generally speaking have a problem with Nominee groups contributing to activity that is counter to the interest of the owners of companies. The benefits of liquidity and reduced volatility don't appear to be realized - shorts tend to increase the magnitude of volatility in both directions. The only shorting i would like to see is by listed Exchange Traded Options, warrants and futures by market makers of those products.





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