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Mork
Posted on: May 20 2020, 01:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'm sorry to hear that EB. - I'm sure you can find a way to bounce back. I for one was happy for you when it looked like you were sitting on a big winning trade.

Take Care
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: May 8 2020, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Elon Musk on Joe Rogan has just explained the BS around Covid deaths.
- Pay hospitals $39,000 for a Covid death vs $8,000 for other deaths- Require no testing, only noting the presence of one symptom.- Get attacked by a shark.- Cough before you die.
My sympathies go out to all people struggling with illness or loss at all times, but people must realise that they are being lied to on a massive scale.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: May 7 2020, 06:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

QUOTE
Download the app ... Google can locate you within 1 meter at all times and half the apps you have on your phone have GPS turned on ...

‘They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.’

Benjamin Franklin 1775

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: May 6 2020, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This is Uncle Bills philanthropic record to date: We should be concerned when a software geek promotes himself the world authority on global health

QUOTE
Promising to eradicate Polio with $1.2 billion, Gates took control of India ‘s National Advisory Board (NAB) and mandated 50 polio vaccines (up from 5) to every child before age 5. Indian doctors blame the Gates campaign for a devastating vaccine-strain polio epidemic that paralyzed 496,000 children between 2000 and 2017. In 2017, the Indian Government dialed back Gates’ vaccine regimen and evicted Gates and his cronies from the NAB. Polio paralysis rates dropped precipitously.
In 2017, the World Health Organization reluctantly admitted that the global polio explosion is predominantly vaccine strain, meaning it is coming from Gates’ Vaccine Program. The most frightening epidemics in Congo, the Philippines, and Afghanistan are all linked to Gates’ vaccines. By 2018, ¾ of global polio cases were from Gates’ vaccines.
In 2014, the Gates Foundation funded tests of experimental HPV vaccines, developed by GSK and Merck, on 23,000 young girls in remote Indian provinces. Approximately 1,200 suffered severe side effects, including autoimmune and fertility disorders. Seven died. Indian government investigations charged that Gates funded researchers committed pervasive ethical violations: pressuring vulnerable village girls into the trial, bullying parents, forging consent forms, and refusing medical care to the injured girls. The case is now in the country’s Supreme Court.
In 2010, the Gates Foundation funded a trial of a GSK’s experimental malaria vaccine, killing 151 African infants and causing serious adverse effects including paralysis, seizure, and febrile convulsions to 1,048 of the 5,049 children.


QUOTE
During Gates' 2002 MenAfriVac campaign in Sub-Saharan Africa thousands of African children were forcibly vaccinated against meningitis. Between 50 and 500 children developed paralysis. Nelson Mandela's former Senior Economist, Professor Patrick Bond, described Gates' philanthropic practices as "ruthless and immoral"
In 2010, Gates committed $10b to the WHO promising to reduce population, in part, through new vaccines. A month later in a Ted Talk, Gates said new vaccines "could reduce population".In 2014, Kenya's Catholic Doctors Association accused the WHO of chemically sterilising millions of unwilling Kenyan women with a phoney "tetanus" vaccine campaign. Independent labs found the sterility formula in every vaccine tested. After denying the charges, WHO finally admitted it had been developing the sterility vaccines for over a decade. Similar accusations came from Tanzania, Nicaragua, Mexico, and the Philippines.


QUOTE
A 2017 study(Morgensen et.Al.2017) showed that WHO's popular DTP vaccine is killing more African children than the disease it pretends to prevent. Vaccinated girls suffered 10x the death rate of unvaccinated children. Gates and WHO have refused to recall the lethal vaccine which WHO forces upon millions of African children annually. Global public health advocates around the world accuse Gates of hijacking WHO's agenda away from projects proven to curb infectious diseases; clean water, hygiene, nutrition, and economic development. They say he has diverted agency resources to serve his personal fetish-that good health only comes in a syringe.


QUOTE
Vaccines, for Bill Gates, are a strategic philanthropy that feed his many vaccine-related businesses (including Microsoft’s ambition to control a global vac ID enterprise) and give him dictatorial control over global health policy—the spear tip of corporate neo-imperialism.Gates’ obsession with vaccines seems fueled by a messianic conviction that he is ordained to save the world with technology and a god-like willingness to experiment with the lives of lesser humans.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Dr Rashid Buttar's take on COVID-19

https://londonreal.tv/digital-freedom-platf...-rashid-buttar/
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks Jascar,

Imo people are blind to whats really going on.

But i think were still a few years away from the big economic crash. So many peoples retirement are solely based on the markets through there superannuation etc and the powers that be will try wipe out the savings of as many as the can.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Apr 12 2020, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Attached is an update on my previous elliot wave count.

IMO we're still in a bull market off the 2009 lows.

Wave D should take approx another 12mths to complete, with the 2020 highs and lows both been tested. Whether the actual high/lows get taken out is any one's guess. I would bet that strong markets like the nasdaq will see new highs later this year, but doubt that the weaker indexes will go that far. Likewise could expect to see the reverse on the downside.

When wave D completes we will have a final Wave E to complete this bull market which could take us out to 2023 or 2024? I originally had a minimum target around 8,000 for the asx200 but in a world of limitless printing of monopoly who knows how high the market could go.

Good luck with your trading/investing and stay healthy.

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Dec 26 2019, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Old school Dow Theory.

There's currently a divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Transport indexes that's between in place for over 15months

Attached Image

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'm using a rough target of 2100 purely as this would confirm the corrective structure of the count i have in place.

however for each abcd of the broadening wedge on the sp500 i have them subdividing into a "abc" "x" "abcde" pattern. (the end a each wave doesn't always align exactly with the price extremes your chart)

so i'm looking for confirmation around your "sell here point" based on a time stop, then if the sell is confirmed i will look for completion of e (5) purely based on the "abc" "x" "abcde" completing.

If correct i think this could take any where from approximately 3 to 9months to complete.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks,this aligns with my elliot wave count that i'm using for the SP500.

Attached File  spx_elliot_wave_construct_111019.pdf ( 97.43K ) Number of downloads: 21
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This was the cartoon about trump's complete indifference to all the loss of life he is encouraging.
The canadian artist apparently lost his job after publishing.
Attached Image

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I posted what i saw as the possibilities for wave B back in March. The way i apply EW has exhausted all possibilities for this part of the count.
Likewise my long term count since the 2008 top has exhausted the alternatives which has been the case for the last 5 or 6 years.
We'll be able to judge the validity of the count shown below over the coming months.

If anyone is willing to share their long term EW counts (10 - 15yrs +) i'll do a chart from the 2007 top with my count.

Cheers

  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 02:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

My elliotwave count update from earlier in the the year.
I'm looking for wave B to complete some time this week.

I'm still looking for wave C to last until the end of 2019 / early 2020. XJO has been outperforming so wave C should complete higher than the lows of Dec 2018.

I've still got the same projection for SP500

After this wave C is complete i have some really bullish projections for the XJO

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

https://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/UpcomingDividends
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

With yesterday looking like some type of short term top, i've attached my medium term Elliot Wave count for the SPASX200.

Attached File  WaveABCDE.pdf ( 216.66K ) Number of downloads: 10


I believe we are in Wave D of a large ABCDE Wave that started in 2015.

Wave D should unfold as a simple abc correction similar to prior A B & C waves.

As best as i can tell wave b of D has not completed, so we can expect either a shallow pull back or a complete retrace back to the December 2018 lows. We should then go back above yesterdays high to complete wave b of D.

Five waves down for c will then complete the whole of wave D some time near the end of this year or earlier next year.

After wave D is complete we should see a final wave E to complete the whole sequence from the 2009 lows. I fully expect this Wave E to be large relative the current Wave D which would take the market to ATH around the 8,000 level sometime in 2021 - 23.

Incidentally the SP500 looks to be following a similar pattern so i can see it eventually getting to approx 3,400 in the 2021 - 23 timeframe.

I'll post an update when it looks like Wave D has completed.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 05:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi eb,

Most professional option traders delta hedge there positions when they sell options. This means there would be some sort of offsetting position in the the futures market. In this case they would be short SP500 contracts at the same time.

The strategy usually means they would be 50% hedge in futures when the market is at the strike price of 2,100. This would be rebalanced over time so they sell more futures as a hedge if the market falls and cover their futures position as the market rises.

Most times these guys are really trading volatility - current volatility is lower based on the vix at present so some of the position could probably be successfully hedged by buying out of the money puts with a lower implied volatility.

Its hard to exactly know because there are different strategies, but it would be extremely unlikely that the position would not have some sort of hedge in place.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 14 2018, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

R.I.P. Arty
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: May 12 2018, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

your right about the massive hoard of us dollars.

but there are also trillions of dollars of US dollars denominated debt in Emerging Markets and the Euro Zone. I recently saw a figure of $4.5trillion in Europe? Combine that with rising US interest rates and the fact that a lot of this debt is not serviced by US dollars earnings - you've got a squeeze going on for US dollars as US interest rates rise.

i don't like the US dollar in the LT but doesn't mean it can't continue to rally in the short/medium term. All this debt in EM seems like a repeat of the Asian crises on the horizon.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 25 2016, 08:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks again,
I like the coincidence wink.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 25 2016, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks for that. The three combined as a leaner company and some real cash looks goods to me.

At one stage i thought HPR was going to have a tilt at RCO, but i think its more likely to be the other way round now?

Be interested to know how involved noontide are in all this, or whether they are a passive investor waiting for a possible consolidation?

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 24 2016, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi doc,

Any guesses how this will play out?

In time i think these 3 companies will be combined into one - no idea how this might happened or when though.

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 17 2015, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Uniden,

Despite your best intentions your probably just wasting your time.

I and others have posted regarding other stocks that were most probably going to end in tears, but when the true believers get on board they don't won't to hear a negative word. Facts or been continually lied to be management don't seem to matter.

btw while i've never held CDU i'd given them the benefit of the doubt until now. It looked to me like a middle of the road deposit with some upside that suffered from bad management. After the the reserve statement i've change my mind and won't bother wasting time following them.

cheers,
M
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 5 2015, 11:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi EB,

QUOTE
have to say i'm become fan of this guy.



btw, this is his money management performance including his years running the soro's fund

SP500

$1,000 invested 30 years ago would be now worth $27,000 before taxes today - 25 up years & 5 down years

Warren Buffet

$1,000 invested 30 years ago would be now worth $177,000 before taxes today - 24 up years & 6 down years

Stanley Druckenmiller

$1,000 invested 30 years ago would be now worth $2.6m before taxes today - 30 up years & no down years
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Oct 28 2015, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Out of interest I just had a look at some notes i made the new MD started and an announcement was made quoting the following costs;

$3.22 p/t ore+waste mining cost

3.87 : 1 strip ratio

$13.84 processing cost

I estimated revenue of $317m p.a, based on 3mtpa @ 2,5% and a recovery of 90% ore thru the mill. They are producing copper concentrate so i used 65% of the quoted copper price to get the $317m

with the quoted cost of approx $90m plus admin, freight & shipping, finance, royalty, sust capex, plus extra to allow for MD likely being too optimistic, i guessed at total cash cost of around $150m pa. (no including dprcn or company tax)

So i think CDU has the potential to make healthly margins, but personally am waiting to see how this plays out. Commodities are in a down trend, and they still have to get the mill up and running which likely includes a period of time to sort out numerous problems before they can approach the stated production levels.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 21 2015, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

For what it worth here's my view on CDU

i like CDU's potential

but i don't invest in companies with a single development project

almost without exception companies developing a project will be over budget, have to deal with serious teething problems during commissioning and ramp up, and require significant working capital as they increase production to name plate capacity.

the amount of money required is almost always underestimated in a big way. small/medium cap companies are always at disadvantage in this situation

given that we've pretty much been in a bear market for resources for the last 4 years i consider CDU share price has held up reasonably well

imo management has done a poor job regarding financing during the development stage. a company that conducts a share buy back during development then comes back to the market multiple times to raise capital is quite rightly going to get punished.

as a rule, good management under-promises / over-delivers

blaming a share price on short sellers is ridiculous. sure large shareholders seeing future capital raising can sell and buy back into a discounted capital raising but this is pretty standard stuff. as a rule i like to have a large short interest or institutions underweight a stock as this represents guaranteed buying power as the situation improves or an uptrend continues.

continual claims of manipulation usually suggests holders of shares are reacting emotionally to a lower share price and not willing to accept that they were wrong at least in the short term

cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 13 2015, 08:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks, S Druckenmiller is worth listening to given his track record.

Thought it was worth the effort to read so have attached a pdf of the transcript.

cheers

Attached File  S_Druckenmiller.pdf ( 83.39K ) Number of downloads: 41

  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Dec 3 2014, 05:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

As a rule of thumb nickel concentrate is worth approx 65% of the refined nickel price

As BML will be trucking ore to the BCL concentrator they will most likely receive the concentrate price less the cost of processing the ore at the concentrator less a recovery factor. The would receive some revenue from PGM byproducts but it probably wouldn't be more than 10% of the nickel value.

This is how its usually done here in Aust for 3rd party ore deliveries, so should be a good guide. Using the quoted nickel price and thinking your getting this for mining ore is way of the mark imo.

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 20 2014, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Attached a chart of the US 30yr treasury bond yield (not price)

Current yield is still comfortably above the lows set back in 2012. It actually looks like a pretty standard retracement at this stage from the first big move up in yields.

Attached File  30yr_yield.pdf ( 471.76K ) Number of downloads: 36
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Oct 12 2014, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks K,

I've had some involvement in transfer pricing (inc thin capitalisation) over the last 20years.

It surprises me the extent to which these large multi nationals are getting away with tax EVASION on such a large scale.

I agree 100% this is theft on a large scale. Transfer pricing laws in Aust have been in place a long time and they are very clear. No matter the nature of any artificial structure created by multi-nationals they are liable for tax on all profits earned within Australia at the full rate.

Seems the Gov/ATO has been asleep far to long letting this theft go on, and its time they start enforcing our tax laws.

Cheers

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Oct 9 2014, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

From the last activity report FAR expect to pay approx $22m towards this well and the next, even though they were carried on a promote basis by their JV partners. They've also committed approx $8m for activities in Kenya, so a CR is almost guaranteed - do they do it prior to the next well or take a punt and wait until the next well is drilled?

  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 9 2014, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Nickel price is approx USD$19,200 per tonne

This is for 99.8% nickel

Nickel concentrate is worth approx 65% of this as the concentrate has to go through a smelter and a refinery to get to 99.8% purity, so 10cents based on 100,000tonnes is pretty optimistic IMO

Current price is probably reasonable on what we know so far.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 6 2014, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

here's an estimate of breakeven prices for iron ore miners.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/06/ir...-junior-miners/

this explains why AGO has been hit so hard.

FMG is also vunerable if IO falls further in the medium term
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 21 2014, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I've got an EW count that i'll get around to updating/posting in the near future, but interesting that it corresponds with Barra's comment that 5550 is as good as it gets and that the first confirmation of this will be a test of 5000 level.

The only difference is on timing, where i'm looking for the market to have a lot of choppy trading between approx 5320-5520 - possibly into late june / early july before heading down to 5000.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 20 2014, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Yep FMG's a bit naughty and reports cash costs on a WMT basis. Whats more there ore is generally of lower quality. Its been widely reported that FMG has been discounting cargoes at up to 8.5% recently.

There seem to be consensus that the sea borne iron market will be in oversupply to the tune of 150m-200m tonnes in 2015-16. Where the bottom is for iron ore prices could have a big impact here in oz.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 5 2013, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I was having a look this morning and saw the new boss got 25m shares/performance rights at no cost. Over 5% dilution for existing shareholders.

Hope the new boss remembers he's running a small company and not at BHP anymore.

  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 4 2013, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Here's a 100 year chart of US10yr treasurys.

Its really quite amazing to me given the massive US government debt that interest rates are where they are

Attached Image
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Aug 18 2013, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I saw Padley's comments last night and my first thought was i doubt he's actually read the market wizard books.

To quote one of the books - "The methologies employed cover purely technical to purely fundamental and everything in bewteen. The length of time they hold a trade ranges from minutes to years"

The highest returns with the least volatility actually tended to be more short term in nature. This makes sense because if your a super trader with a method that has a good risk reward payoff - the more trades you make the more you cancel out the volatility in returns.

Am i defending short term trading? No

I actually prefer to make my money trying to find 10, 20, 50+ baggers in small caps based on fundamentals.

I've taught myself shorter term technical trading (days to weeks) to (1) better improve my timing, and (2) more consistantly make money - to find good small caps with really good risk reward payoffs is not always easy to find based solely on fundamentals - often any upside potential is matched with a fairly high degree of risk. Most of the time small caps have pretty ordinary fundamentals at best.

For those who haven't read the market wizard books, one the recurring themes is that its very important to match your trading/investment method to your personality. It suggest that is one of the key factors to determining trading success. There are a few other key factors but the method style you employ isn't one of them.

btw - hats of to those pure tech traders, from someone who is basically a "funnymentalist" You've got to be impressed sometimes with there market judgement and timing.

cheers
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Jul 11 2013, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Given yesterdays price action and subsequent big moves in futures markets after helicopter ben's little speach, i'm thinking 5020 on the asx200 will be too conservative. Think this rally will have some strength and probably stay long into next weeks index option expiry.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jul 10 2013, 11:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'm targeting the 5020 area as the top of this retracement from the June lows. This would be 61.8% of wave A. When this rally stops i'm still looking for the market to take out 4400 in a wave C down to complete the correction from the May highs.

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jun 10 2013, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi EB,

As a total guess, i think the ASX200 will now partially retrace the fall from 5250 with this lasting into late June / early July. Then i would be looking for the downtrend to continue with my target being somewhere between 4400 & 4332 - say by August / September.

I'm more confident of the price target than the time frame. It took 6months to rally from 4330 to 5250, what i'm looking for is this to be almost fully retraced in less time than 6months, hence August/ September is as good a guess as any?

If this happens i would be looking to go long, and at this stage i think i would expect to favour commodities stocks rather than banks etc, so if BHP got to $25 i would be a buyer. Hopefully i'd be covering shorts at this price too if i go short again.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 10 2013, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Some interesting comments recently. IMO its more reliable to look at the USD charts of BHP / RIO / FMG to determine price direction. The large correction in the AUD has given the appearance of price support for BHP, but i'm with Mista, i think we'll see lower prices in the coming weeks / months.

USD BHP chart attached - RIO FMG charts look even weaker.

I covered shorts last week and went long the index on friday as i'm looking for a bounce, but i've got a medium term target for the ASX200 somewhere below 4,400. i do however think the Nov12 low at 4334 will hold.


Attached Image


  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 3 2013, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Merc,

available early morning for the previous days prices

www.macrobusiness.com.au/category/iron-ore-price/

Prices for 31/05/13

Attached Image
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 9 2013, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This is still my long term view of the AUD. It looks to me that this is still in a 4th Wave consolidation. If this is correct AUD has the potential to go much higher in a final 5th wave after the consolidation has completed. I'm looking for a test of parity in the coming weeks / month or two. I'm also looking for commodity stocks / gold to show signs of bottoming out in this time frame. So suspect we haven't seen the final lows in many commodity/gold stocks, but will be looking for divergence and relative strength versus financials etc.

Attached File  _XAD___SharpCharts_Workbench___StockCharts.com.pdf ( 92.34K ) Number of downloads: 570
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 3 2013, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

The warrants were stopped out yesterday and CS sold SYR via crossings at $1.65. Warrant holders got back $0.097. IMO CS were protecting themselves. The original stop at $1.60 and the strike price at $1.55 only left CS a $0.05 buffer. These mini warrants are like non recourse loans to the buyer. Obvisously some other party was happy to trigger the $1.70 stop and buy at fairly decent size at $1.65
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jan 24 2013, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

A recent announcement said that insto's had an agreement to put 82m director held fpo's in escrow until 31/1/2013 as part of the last capital raising. Me thinks that the insto's know roughly how many shares the directors will sell and have been shorting for when they place those director held fpo's? Only a week to go now
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 14 2012, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi arty,

I reckon your on the money regarding chinese interest behind the difficulties Lynas is experiencing. However i would speculate that they don't want Lynas to go under, but actually have a long term plan to take de facto control of LAMP. This could easily be achieved "in the national interest" Malaysia forcing Lynas to take on a 50% joint venture partner to operate the malaysian operations. China got turned away on there first attempt to take over Lynas. They may ultimately get what they want second time around

I would expect the plant to continue to face difficulties real or imaginary.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 30 2012, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Another way of looking at it, is its a done deal and the new owners are quite happy to develop and produce the field at <2000 boepd. That way they never have to pay the $8.5m?
Until the moneys in the bank you've got nothing wink.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 25 2012, 10:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Lynas basket price includes Samarium. Reported fall this week was down 13.3%. Sm traded at a discount to La/Ce in 2009 & 2010 but now trades at more than twice the price, so maybe this demand is priced in?

  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 24 2012, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This is the big unknown with LYC - what there operating costs will be.

Molycorp said they could produce at $2/kg but there current costs are over $50/kg - and this is before admin / finance / accounting charges.

Basically i don't believe the $15/kg - i think it will be higher. imo even at $15/kg operating margin they will show a loss on phase 1 production levels after allowing for admin / finance / accounting charges.

I just don't see anyupside here. Time will tell?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 24 2012, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

More big falls in Rare Earth price were reported on metals-pages.com overnight. I've always doubted that LYC would be profitable after phase 1 was completed, now i would question their profitability after phase 2.

Imo the prices LYC reports on there website is misleading - phase 1 has LYC producing La/Ce carbonate which is a lower value product than oxide. As best as i can tell the HREE produced from phase 1 are a concentrate to sent for toll treatment elsewhere. At current REE prices i'm guessing LYC would be getting less than $30/kg on there total phase 1 production.

Still think theres a lot of downside risk for LYC even if the TOL is upheld next month.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 20 2012, 03:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Mistagear,

Sorry for posting on this thread, but do you trade SP500 future thru your CFD account or are you trading the actual e-mini contract in the US?
I'm interested in trading the actual contract rather than a CFD or other derivative etc.

Cheers,
M
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 19 2012, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

imo this happens each month whenever the holders of puts or calls get the upper hand and get a chance to take the option writers to to cleaners. Option expirey days such as these often represent short / intermediate term turning points in the market. No point complaining - just trade it and make money out of it!
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Sep 5 2012, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'd be looking for AUD to come back to around $0.97 as a minimum which would nicely cover a large gap in my chart, but its way to early to tell where the eventual bottom might be. As would be expected resources are week in-line with the AUD, lets see if PM's now follow.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Aug 10 2012, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

FMG's iron ore is a lower quality that attracts a fairly large discount to bench mark prices.

At the current price around $115 / ton FMG would be getting approx $100
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Aug 8 2012, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

After getting stopped out on my first AUD long, i re-entered and got the rally i was looking for.

However, the price action looks corrective suggesting one more down leg to complete the consolidation from the 2011 highs.

This patterns looks to be in agreement with most stock markets, suggesting a sell-off starting soon. Could expect further new lows in resources and also precious metals.

Not going to short the AUD, but looking to short an o/s index to get the double whammy of falling prices and a falling AUD
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Aug 5 2012, 01:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Merc,

an unrisked valuation is as you said the best case scenario where all their exploration targets strike oil(& or gas). But the reality is most exploration comes up empty handed with the odds of success approximately 1:10.

So if you apply a chance of success factor to all your exploration targets, you can estimate a theoretical value for a companies exploration targets as a risked valution.

Hope this is of some help
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jul 21 2012, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Merc,

Just remember these are OIP figures quoted. To get an estimate of reserves i use a 30% recovery factor in sandstone reservoirs. I think its highly likely they have a modest discovery in the Hutton sandstones but i think there wasting there time on the Adori
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 18 2012, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

China's collapsing property market!

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 4 2012, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Flower, all daily / weekly charts going back approx 2 1/2 yrs are free. If you want to go further back, or access hourly / 5min charts etc you have to pay a small fee
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 4 2012, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Here's a weekly Gold chart in AUD, looks pretty bullish to me. Basing pattern for 2012, with a breakout of its triangle on friday for a continuation of it's LT uptrend

Got back into my silver trade this morning, still think we'll see new ATH in PM's over the next six months or so
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: May 25 2012, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

IMO the more massive / valuable the deposit the less likely IAU will get meaningful ownership in the project. This would be a good punt if it was trading around cash backing, but still a long way to go to get to those levels. Interesting to watch how this plays out
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 15 2012, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I've got an EW wave count on the AUD that should have it putting in a bottom around these levels. The price action from the AUG2011 highs looks corrective. If this turns out to be the case we should see higher prices in the coming months, so went long AUD this morning.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 9 2012, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

If gold / silver got to these levels i'll be buying with me ears pinned back. Who evers getting paid to lease Gold probably thinks there onto a can't loose deal. Seem to remember lots of mining doing the same thing with there hedging programs and getting caught out badly. Still think we'll see new highs in PM, its just a matter of timing.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 9 2012, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks Flower, sort of comfirms what was been said.

I know if i was lending out my gold i wouldn't be paying someone for the privilige no matter how short term

Further downside to come imo in the coming weeks, but this could set the stage for a nice rally.

I'm now looking for approx $1500 in gold - $25 in Silver
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 9 2012, 11:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Gold leasing rates are supposedly negative at the moment. Apparently Central Banks are leasing gold to provide liquidity, hence the downward pressure on Gold and the relative ease with which recent Euro zone government debt issues were able to be sold.

If this is true CB's are able to provide liquidity and place downward pressure on Gold at the same time which i'm sure suits there needs.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Apr 26 2012, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Nice short trade Arty,

I got out of most of my position on Monday so wasn't too badly hurt. Decided to have one more go at the trade and got back in late today. See if the options expiring gives a turning point.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 24 2012, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Flower,

Gold, Silver, Platinum are all sitting at LT support on a rising trend line. I don't know if palladium counts but it has rallied and approaching some overhead resistance for a break out to the upside.

I figure PM have to start rising very soon off this support, else the LT trend will fail. It looks a pretty good risk reward trade to me right now. Bought some silver today - risking a dollar or so to the down side but looking for new highs for Gold / Silver etc.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Apr 19 2012, 06:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Bought some of the 10c options the last couple of days on top of the FPO's i got last week. i wasn't aware of them until Melua mentioned them (thanks) so was surprised that they are trading around intrinsic value. Time enough with the options to know the outcome of Katherine and get some sort of indication on the CSG.

I agree with Melua that $1 would be very reasonable with some success at Katherine and some positive results with the CSG and/or shale wells.

The numbers for the CSG / shale are huge, that IF they are successful i'd be suprised if they made it through to the end of 2013 without being taken over. With CNOOC at 50% there's no way they would be allowed to go any higher, if the 31TFC proves up to be realistic. Just going sit on them for at least the next 3 months to see how things play out.

  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 17 2012, 12:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Arty, i had a look thru the older posts and the call for $27.75 turned out to spot on, though it took plenty of time getting there. Bought a few of these as i think gold stocks have bottomed at least for a month or so. I actually think gold can get to new highs in the coming months, but who knows if the stocks will respond?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 17 2012, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Have a look at the Lynas presentation posted by Nightstalker on the 5th April

Straight from the Molycorp website -

QUOTE
Molycorp, Inc. is the only rare earth oxide (REO) producer in the Western hemisphere. We own and operate the world’s largest, most fully developed rare earth mine and oxide manufacturing facility outside of China, located in Mountain Pass, California.

We have been producing rare earth products for more than 59 years. Our team of more than 940 scientists, engineers, chemists, technologists, and highly skilled workers is one of the foremost assemblages of rare earth manufacturing expertise in the world.

In addition to the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Facility in California, we also own Molycorp Silmet (formerly AS Silmet), which produces high-purity rare earth oxides and metals at its facilities in Sillamae, Estonia.

We also own Molycorp Tolleson (formerly Santoku America, Inc.), located in Tolleson, Arizona. Molycorp Tolleson produces high-purity rare earth metals and alloys -- including Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) alloy and Samarium-Cobalt (SmCo) alloy -- which are both used to manufacture highly prized permanent rare earth magnets.

Our company is engaged in several historic initiatives:
Modernizing and expanding our rare earth mine, mill, and rare earth oxide manufacturing facility at Mountain Pass. This initiative, known as Project Phoenix, consists of two expansion phases.

Phase 1 of this project is scheduled to producing at an annual rate of 19,050 metric tons of rare earth oxides by the end of the third quarter of 2012.

Phase 2 of our expansion project, which will give us an annual production capacity of 40,000 metric tons per year, is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2012.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 14 2012, 09:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Filter,

I just try and get on the right side of the trend. I had a small long position last week and have a small bid in to get reset on monday, but the LT trend is down at present. The big spikes up and subsequent drop of in price look like short squeezes to me.

You might like to check your facts re:Molycorp - even Lynas seem concerned that they will beat them to 1st production

imho downramping (or upramping) in chat rooms has no impact on stock prices but it can provide a bit of a guide to sentiment. It seems to me that the best stocks have almost no following at all.

Good luck
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 14 2012, 03:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Merc,

Lynas are on record saying that they will get somewhere between the China price and the export price. Phase 1 has them producing LA & CE carbonate - as i understand it the price is much lower for this product than oxide? As for production cost i have no idea but i'm sure they've increased over the last couple of years.

This was a great short when it broke thru its large H&S neckline last year and when it re-tested the neckline in Feb. traded it long several times also.

There seem to be a lot of true believers in this stock, despite the stock being in a downtrend for the last 12months - i just think a lot has to go right to see sustainable higher prices.A lot of holders are blaming the anti lynas group for the share price falls but the fact is that prices for REE have collapsed. Imo La & Ce will keep falling in price, its only the HREE that are structurally in short supply so these are lynas only hope for profitable production.
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  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 13 2012, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

We nearly always never know what goes on behind the scenes, but i have had a theory that the chinese are involved in the challenges, but actually want Lynas to complete the plant and finish the phase 2 expansion. Its death by a thousand cuts. Once the plant is running the authorities "find" problems - the anti lynas mob say i told you say and Lynas never get a permanent license ohmy.gif

Anyway have shorted this on the last spike in february and would consider another entry. imo people are far to bulllish on the earnings, i think they'll only make small profits at 11,000tpa and need the 22,000tpa to make decent profits?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 6 2012, 02:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This does look like any interesting exploration play, however the 280mmbbl figure quoted is OIP with most the potential in the undrilled East part of the structure. I know it doesn't really make any difference but i don't like companies that talk up OIP figures

imo best bet is in the hutton sands but west katherine is relatively small - the CSG and shale oil potential is huge. I got a bid in so happy to pick up a few.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Mar 28 2012, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi,

4328 was the futures contract, so was trading at 0.5% premium to the actual market
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2012, 06:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I've kept this table as reference regarding china commodity consumption.

China's consumption of oil seems on par with its share of global GDP. At whatever future growth it maintains, its almost guaranteed to increase its consumption of oil at similar rates.

For the likes of copper, cement, iron ore etc i'm not so sure - at some stage this must revert to the mean as triage suggests. Looking a couple of years out BHP RIO FMG plus Hope Downs alone are adding approx 400mtpa of supply of iron ore - i can't see any upside in prices personally, though producers will still do well as long as prices don't fall of a cliff.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Feb 23 2012, 09:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Yet more dilution courtesy la jolla cove.
At some stage i'll try and get a small free carried position in case there's a capital raising to share holders to move the company forward, but in the mean time can't see any reason to hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 3 2012, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

As best that i can tell Molycorp has two processing plants that are operating now, one at Mountain Pass and one in Estonia.

From long experience i won't hold any mining developments coming into projection, too often the first six months have lots of problems. Good luck
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 3 2012, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

As far as i'm aware Molycorp are targeting 20,000t by Q4 this year and 40,000t a year later. So between LYC & MCP a lot of supply is coming to market within the next two years - will be interesting to see how this plays out.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 30 2011, 08:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I found this table earlier this year, showing chinese % of world commodity consumption. imo much of this is clearly unsustainable no matter how fast China grows. In the case of Iron Ore all the magors are have also spent big to dramatically increase supply. Commodities always fall back to the marginal cost of production evenyually after a boom period.

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http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/05/pettis-warns-canberra/

Pity my favourite Carbon Fibre stock looks so sick at the moment!
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Nov 29 2011, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

With La Jolla Cove on board i've decided to stay away for now. These guys have a history of killing the share price of many a small cap.
It appears that $2m of the money there trying to raise is going out the door in a legal settlement, so there not much better of financially imo.

Hope it turns around for you Mista
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 23 2011, 01:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks for the article

How they don't see the transfer of productive capacity in the US to other countries as an erosion of the supply side of their economy is amazing imo. The only thing thats saved the US from higher rates of inflation is fraudulent stats and a continual decline in the velocity of money since 2000.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Nov 9 2011, 09:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Floyd,

I did the switch a couple of years ago. In that time i've found the Mac to be incredibly stable with no lock ups etc and i'm 99% sure its a much more secure machine for use over the internet. It generally feels like its much better made than any pc i've ever used.

However a Mac won't run webiress for trading (at least with my provider).

And surprisingly MS excel/word etc software doesn't seem to be as easy to use on a Mac as PC versions.

The apple supplied keyboard is average for typing, and the supplied mouse is below average imo to use, though both continue to work reliably.

Hope this is of some help.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Sep 26 2011, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Malfrey, i like to use elliot wave for the indexes.
IMO when this 5th wave completes, i'm seeing this as the completion of a large ABC correction from the April 2010 highs. If this is the case we should get a large rally to new post GFC highs in 2012. Any thoughts on this?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Sep 20 2011, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Frodo,

the record date occurs after settlement of a trade T+3 so is always several days after the ex div date. Always good to check, AGO is ex div today.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 8 2011, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

paterson have put a $0.06 price target on NAV

targeting 107k oz's @ $1094 then 118k oz's @ $863 cash costs.

Attached File  937_NAV_20110901.pdf ( 1.37MB ) Number of downloads: 977
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 3 2011, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Interesting chart Denpal.

$hui itself has just had a break out, looks super bulliish to me. Got a feeling PM stock are going to rise fast, playing catch up to the gold price.



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  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Sep 2 2011, 06:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Just saw this on bloomberg...


Here is a link to a 1975 Newsweek article "The Cooling World" which states "Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend as well as its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic."

The last sentence of the article says it all, only a generation ago it was global cooling, not warming, "The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climate change once the results become a grim reality."

The sky is falling again. If only we could protect ourselves from the arrogant certainty of the media and scientific experts who say "trust us, we are certain we've diagnosed the problem and have THE answer." Now, if the "solution" is implemented worldwide, it could cost us trillions of dollars.

http://tinyurl.com/2vwvuz
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Aug 31 2011, 04:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

They've changed the company name, maybe they should change the name of their product?

The Wheezeometer! .....lol
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 12 2011, 11:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I sold last wednesday also and no longer hold.

I actually think the potential upside for this stock is very high, however i am concerned in the short term about their low levels of cash. This might not be an issue especially if the can raise money via a deal with there CBM/shale gas holdings in the UK. If a deal gets done i'd be happy to buy back in at higher prices.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 12 2011, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

007, just doing back of the envelope calculations, i'm guessing they can get to approx 20,000 ounces @ $800 cash cost per qtr based on the higher grades. If they achieve this i think it can do much better than 3cents
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 11 2011, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Back in May 2010 BCD ran to +15 cents on discovery of its high grade western zone.

BCD have said stopping of this zone has/will start in august. I'm looking for a jump in grade to +10%, big increase in produced gold with a subsequent big reduction in cash costs. They should go from making almost no money to large cash margins very quickly.

bought some at 1.1 and some more on the breakout at 1.3 this morning. should have lots of upside from these prices?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 11 2011, 10:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Even the most hated gold producers like NAV & BCD are moving, so we might see a real good run now across the whole sector.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Aug 9 2011, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Excercised my rights today. NAV looking good at 3.1cents - however not without risk as theoretically the underwriters could still pull the pin due to the fall in the market? Good luck all holders NAV highly leveraged to the increasing gold price
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 25 2011, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Veeone, these are the rights - only 2 cents to excercise + you get the 4 cent option thrown in for free.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 25 2011, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

NAV fpo's @ $0.029 NAVRA @ $0.003 - still a long way to catch up?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 22 2011, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Interesting situation here with the fully paids trading at 2.4 cents Bid and the 2 cent right trading at 0.1cents with an attached 1:2 option. One of the prices is wrong. Have bought some of the rights at 0.1cents
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 26 2011, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

QUOTE
the major shareholder in EDE was also the co-underwriter on the offer


The TAS rights issue so they could take up their EDE entitlement and sub-underwrite the offer was even less well received. Don't know how this will impact as TAS don't have much of a cash position.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 25 2011, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

EDE continues to slowly creep up from last week despite the market correction. Added to my position this morning. Thanks for the heads up on this Mista
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 6 2011, 01:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Plastic,

Last day of rights trading was yesterday.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 25 2011, 12:57 PM


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Posts: 321

Market is showing a bit of interest in QPN. My best guess is the top of targeted zones from 14,000ft to 16,000ft will be reached early next week. Good luck to those holding.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

IMO TSV merging with Latent is great for TSV shareholders. Only caveat would be the financial condition of Latent.
One of the more interesting tight gas plays.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 24 2010, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

BDG has persistantly been shorted since the takeover/merger - on many days the short sales are 50%+ of reported sales.
My guess is BDG will slowly slide downwards prior to the merger being completed. The BCD discount to 0.72 BDG should shrink as we get closer to Nov, as those shorting BDG cover there position by buying BCD.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 29 2010, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I've just come back from my first visit to China. The development going on is certainly impressive. However couldn't help noticing block upon block of new residential apartments and office buildings standing empty. While i know nothing about chinese real estate, just from observation there appears to be some level of over-investment in this sector.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 2 2010, 12:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

430m fpo's plus lots of debt and no money. They've already flagged a capital raising coming up so lots of dilution ahead.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 14 2009, 09:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Mungo,

I would of said your crazy, but listened to www.kingworldnews.com on the weekend. Apparently the original coppenhagen treaty had clauses to implement a world government by requiring signatories to the treaty to agree to a single world constitution that had precedent over national constitutions. Scary stuff if true.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mork
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Took i while, but a new closing high of $0.485 today. I think it can easily earn >$0.10 eps in 2009/2010 and keep growing, so still cheap with nice looking chart.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 13 2009, 12:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi blueice,

I've been keeping an eye on the call/put position on BHP similiar to Arty & his index options. Unlike the index options there's doesn't seem to be much short interest via the options market with calls out numbering puts 2 to 1.

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 3 2009, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Soot,

AMU flagged a capital raising, so more of the same i think.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 15 2009, 02:47 PM


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Posts: 321

Tks PaulB,

Didn't see the article, but i'm sure a bit of exposure doesn't hurt. I'm quite keen to see the full year results.


  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 15 2009, 12:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi radd,

The market may just be waking up. I know what its like to hold shares that seem to be undervalue and they just seem to go nowhere.

But this morning we have a new 52week high and a post consolidation high also. Since the market top in late 2007 MNL has formed a large base and finally broken out. There's very few shares that have managed this since the GFC so i think this is very bullish for the stock. What's more the p/e seems to still be around x5 with earnings growing fast.

Justlike to see a 2yr high taken out at $0.365 and a some good volume.

Good luck
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 3 2009, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Does anyone have an interest in MNL?

Looks like its growing rapidly, with a low market cap around $12m.

If it can get above its 52 week high at $0.29 looks like its got lots of upside.

Took a small position today - thinly traded so take care, but risk reward seems good.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 19 2009, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Wren,

Have a look at www.shadowstats.com

John Williams compiles US gov stats based on the original computation methods. He reports huge differences vs the current reported stats.

I personally think must of the stats out of the US are B/S, but then again most governments manipulate stats to varying dergrees.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Feb 19 2009, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Mosaic,

I bought the book sometime last year at Borders (partly based on your recommendation i think!) Any one interested could probably find it there.

ROC looks pretty sick - i bought after NXS sold because of the overhang going but exited within a couple of days so no harm done.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 9 2009, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

If they can get direct trading via pulse i'll move across too. This is the only thing stopping me at the monent. Either way i will not be staying with Commsec.

Thanks NS/Danille for sharing your efforts with Paritech.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Demand destruction has probably been widely overstated.

the lastest iea report
http://omrpublic.iea.org/

estimates demand in 2009 at 85.3mbpd versus their 2008 demand estimate of 85.8mb/d.

and despite increasing inventories in the US, the iea has total OECD inventories falling

seems that oil has bottomed - we've got a break in the down trend and a retest of the Dec08 lows. Just need a higher high in Oil to confirm.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jan 30 2009, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'm fairly certain AED still have a tax liability of approx $50m from the sale of puffin to SINOPEC & don't forget US$85m converting note. Allowing for this the cash position doesn't look as good
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jan 30 2009, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Seems like the money raise is going to be spent on their O&G permits in the US???

Seems like a rush job to get the documents out - not very impressive thumbdown.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jan 28 2009, 12:20 PM


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Posts: 321

General Meeting called to set up a D.R.P.

You would assume that SOT are going to start paying a dividend again rolleyes.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jan 20 2009, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: freoman on Tuesday 20/01/09 11:24am

For quite a while now Singapore benchmark unleaded prices have been at or below Oil prices.

Last week the prices of unleaded jumped and seems to be holding around $8 refining margin to crude. All thru this period diesel has been trading at a huge premium to crude.

When i saw this i thought of CTX. Seems demand for diesel products has remained high & maybe refining margins on unleaded petrol has bottomed. Not good for motorist but maybe CTX will benefit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 25 2008, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: NightStalker on Tuesday 25/11/08 12:07pm

NS your veiws on shorting are clear, fair enough.

But whats the difference between between buying shares with money you don't own, and selling shares with shares you don't own?

I agree that naked shorting is not a good thing, but covered shorts are part of a healthy market.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 25 2008, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: arty on Tuesday 25/11/08 11:45am

Option trades that are made with a market maker taking the other side of the trade will almost defininetly be hedged. So buying puts or calls will usually result in some degree of selling or buying of the fpo's.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 19 2008, 02:45 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: kiril on Wednesday 19/11/08 02:29pm

1 Barrel of Oil is approximately equivalent to 6000 cf of gas on a BTU basis.

400Bcf is approximately equal to 66million BOE - this is a GIP figure so you would have to place a recovery factor. Given the tight sands probably 50% - 60% recovery is the best we could get.

So if Cobra is commercial in the future NWE share of potential reserves is approx 8million BOE.
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Mork
Posted on: Oct 25 2008, 04:22 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: Duster on Friday 24/10/08 10:50pm

TAP half year report showed $66m in the bank - but the also flagged significant cash expense for philipines and the varanus island explosion. i wouldn't be surprised to see cash <$50m this quarter so i'm going to wait until the quartely comes out.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Oct 11 2008, 06:03 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: Duster on Saturday 11/10/08 09:03am

VCN

FPO's 227m

Cash $32m

Cash Backing $0.14

Market Price $0.08

The catch is they need +$300m to finance what looks like a really good copper/cobalt/nickel project in Finland
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Oct 4 2008, 09:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: andy20020 on Saturday 04/10/08 05:51pm

I've had a look at the June 2008 half year results.

As best as i can tell after settling the 2008 contracts they still have 242k ounces forward sold at NZ$777

They also state that they hold puts for 208k ounces at NZ$1,000, and they have sold calls for 104k ounces at NZ$1,062.

I'm not 100% certain and would contact the company to clarify but my reading of this is that they are short the calls for 104k ounces, on top of the 242k ounces that were forward sold.

Hope this helps. I may even contact the company myself next week to get a clearer picture as its on my list of goldies to buy just that the hedging puts me off.
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Mork
Posted on: Oct 4 2008, 03:40 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: andy20020 on Thursday 02/10/08 12:50pm

I got a bit excited when i saw your post, but reading the announcement OGC have only settled old out of the money hedges. Remaining hedges for 2008, 2009 & 2010 are still in place and underwater +$100m versus a m/c <$60m.

Imo they have good assets but the hedging needs to be sorted out before i would buy.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 13 2008, 03:34 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: Brierley on Saturday 13/09/08 11:16am

Last year when the USD broke down through 80 on the index, it formed what looks like a huge multi year head and shoulders top. (sorry i don't have a chart to post)

This latest rally looks like a sharp countertrend rally to retest the break of the neckline. I'm looking for an intemediate term bottom in oil and gold any time now as the USD declines back to 70 on the USD index.

Ultimately i think the USD is toast and could test 40 on the index causing the USD price of Oil and Gold to soar?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Aug 25 2008, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: leerex on Monday 25/08/08 10:56am

BUY 267m FPO's @ $0.068 - $18m M/C

NWE 218m FPO's @ $0.12 - $26m M/C

With NWE higher equity in Wisteria the leverage is actually the same at current market prices.

Given NWE other assets, imo NWE has less downside risk so is a much better risk/reward than BUY.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 6 2008, 04:32 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: wasabibarako on Wednesday 06/08/08 04:04pm

Hi Wasa,

Haven't been around much lately so didn't see your question.

I thought it was was strange that Hartley's did the issue of the converting notes but Mac Bank was the one who took them up?

Anyway the notes have pretty generous terms so they look to be the way to play SUR imo. There seems to be reset clauses on the conversion price so its in the note holders interest to see the price fall. That would be my concern as a shareholder.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 4 2008, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: db76 on Monday 04/08/08 01:38pm

The way i read it was it was the market was ascribing no value to these part's of the company and hence presenting a value opportunity.

I wouldn't be buying now but do see L/T value at these price. However suspect we will see lower prices over time and the turn around in prices is much further away than people might be anticipating?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 28 2008, 01:58 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: wasabibarako on Monday 28/07/08 01:48pm

I just had a scan thru the SUR releases and was surprised to see MQG took 75% of the convertible notes recently issue.

1st impression is don't see this as a possitive for the SUR.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jul 4 2008, 01:53 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: lgrif on Wednesday 30/04/08 05:31pm

After a what looks like a big shake out during june ADI looks like its ready to move up strongly. Next couple of months will be very exciting with high impact NG in the US and a wildcat oil well in AC/P32.

I hold blink.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 27 2008, 05:16 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: Mork on Friday 27/06/08 04:55pm

I guy called Glenn Neely made the call below back in 2004 that the SP500 would reach and all time high then go into into a multi year bear market. He also said that the lows seen in 2002 would not be taken out in our life time. His call has been spot on using elliot wave in contrast to B.Prechter. Basically ones an inflationist, the other a deflationist
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 27 2008, 04:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: daggie on Friday 27/06/08 04:29pm

B. Prechter has basically been saying this since the 87 crash. Elliot Wave at its core says that markets advance in a five wave and correct in 3 wave pattern and that markets are fractal in nature. In practice its very subjective but practioners have made some very good calls using the method (as do people applying other methods - ure going to get it right sometimes wink.gif )
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Jun 26 2008, 05:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: flower on Thursday 26/06/08 05:10pm

I just found this M3 chart on the Financial Sense website.

If its accurate Helicopter Ben has been hard a work.

I bought a few goldies in recent weeks, but think i'll take some bigger positions.


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  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Jun 26 2008, 04:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: albion on Thursday 26/06/08 04:13pm

I dipped my toe in the AMU pool today. Agree it looks oversold and looks undervalued. Don't really like the hedging they have and the placement to pay down debt doesn't make much sense to me but i really like there gas assets. NG price has been quietly creeping ever upwards yet is still very cheap relative to oil.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 18 2008, 06:05 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 18/06/08 01:28pm

Doran was on lateline business last nite.

I got the impression that he would be very happy merging with AEL and having the AZA take over fail.

Could be a reflection of the the poor AZA share price.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 23 2008, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: triage on Friday 23/05/08 12:23pm

NWE has been dissapointing but this is the nature of the game. Everything else has been a side show till now - 15% of 180mmbl's is what i've been holding out for all this time biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 23 2008, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Now the fun really begins - late July for Wisteria

ASX/MEDIA RELEASE
23 May 2008
WISTERIA 1 – AC/P 32, TIMOR SEA
Bounty Oil & Gas N.L. (“Bounty”) announces that drilling of the Wisteria 1 well in
the Vulcan Sub Basin; AC/P 32; Ashmore Cartier Region, Timor Sea is on track to
commence in late July, 2008 using the “Western Atlas” rig.
Bounty holds a 10% interest in the well and in this large 1,092 sq km permit.
Bounty is contributing 7.6% to the dry hole cost of Wisteria 1.
Wisteria 1 will test 3 zones for oil with a combined resource potential estimated at
around 180 mmbbls of oil.
Bounty is an Australian ASX listed oil producer and explorer. It is exploring
for oil and gas with a number of high impact projects in Australia. In Tanzania
it is a participant in the recent Kiliwani North gas discovery.
For further information, please contact:
Graham Reveleigh
Chairman
Tel: +617 4033.1805
Email: mining@cairns.net.au
Philip F Kelso
Chief Executive Officer
Tel:+612 9299 7200
Email: geo@bountyoil.com
Website: www.bountyoil.com
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 12 2008, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: Jimmy123 on Monday 12/05/08 03:19pm

Just Released

Press Release

For immediate release: 12 May 2008


EnCore Oil plc ("EnCore" or "the Company")


Cobra Appraisal Well Update


EnCore Oil plc (LSE: EO.) is pleased to announce that the Company's first operated well, the 48/2c-5, 'Cobra' appraisal well on Southern North Sea block 48/2c, has reached total depth of 11,805ft measured depth and wireline logging has been completed.



Analysis of wireline log data suggests that the Rotliegendes Sandstone reservoir is gas-bearing as expected. However, until a full testing programme has been completed there is still uncertainty as to whether this reservoir is capable of delivering significant flow rates. The co-venturers have concluded that the results to date support a decision to flow test the well. It is expected that testing operations will take approximately 14 days subject to operational and weather constraints.



The main objective of the 48/2c-5 well is to establish whether the Rotliegendes Sandstone reservoir is capable of flowing at commercial rates. The well is being drilled up dip from the 48/2-1 well, drilled in 1984, which flowed at 2.7 million cubic feet per day. The original 48/2-1 well was interpreted as having reservoir damage and the Company felt that reservoir performance could be improved by the use of modern drilling and completion techniques.


Alan Booth, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We are pleased to have completed the drilling phase of our first operated well, the results so far are in line with our pre-drill expectations. We look forward to the results of the testing programme which will provide critical information about the potential deliverability of the reservoir."


The EnCore operated well is being drilled by the ENSCO 80 jack-up rig and is being managed by Applied Drilling Technology International (ADTI) which has over 20 years' experience in providing 'turnkey' drilling services. EnCore has a 20 per cent. interest, together with co-venturers, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (25 per cent.), Tata Petrodyne Limited (25 per cent.), Norwest Energy (22.5 per cent.) and Challenger Minerals (North Sea) Limited (7.5 per cent.).



Graham Doré B.Sc. (Hons.) in Geology and M.Sc. in Petroleum Geology and EnCore's Exploration Director, who has over 20 years' experience in the oil exploration and production industry, has reviewed and approved the technical information contained in this announcement.


For enquiries, please contact:


EnCore Oil plc www.encoreoil.co.uk

Alan Booth, Chief Executive Officer +44 (0)20 7224 4546

Eugene Whyms, Chief Financial Officer
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 1 2008, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Amazing profit forecast for this half +$80m. Some spot sales @ $16mtu with the market very tight & demand growing.

Unfortuneately sold a few in March but still riding the rest. biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 24 2008, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

This looks an intersesting situation. I bet those hedge fund wizz kids are all long AZA & short NXS due to the merger proposal. With an upcoming high impact well and revised merger terms on the way anyone short NXS could be in trouble?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 24 2008, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Also have a small holding in the red but will hang onto them.

My take on this is the buyback was put in place to give ANZ the option of affloading their shares back to RCO. It wouldn't cover all the shares but would go a long way in clearing the overhang.

In the meantime its a stand-off, but in the end ANZ will sell at a big discount because they need the liquidity to sell into.

I'll probably look to buy more once ANZ have sold.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 28 2008, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: fredick on Thursday 28/02/08 11:27am

This looks like a cashflow timing issue - receivables increased by $1m over the period & payables decrease by $350k. ie SEN paid most of there bills on time but are still waiting payment from customers.

the balance sheet looks ok, so if they make there profit forecast cash should increase in the next half.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 22 2008, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I'm sure PPT are still selling - there selling has been relentless.
If they want to get rid of all there shares there is still a long way to go.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Feb 20 2008, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Looks tempting here for a punt on Schwing#2 with 400ft to go to the primary target.
However AMU have lots of hedging with a cap around $90/bbl so i think this might be holding back the share price.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Dec 6 2007, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: stezz on Thursday 06/12/07 08:55am

I just looked back at the Annual Report and last year the company had EBITDA of $37m.

So an acquisition at x5 EBITDA plus approx net cash of $40m is bang on $0.55 per share.

Pretty good gut feel stezz.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 29 2007, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

guys,

i saw the trades go thru, looked liked a large parcel being dumped in two goes. lots of small buyers sitting in the market depth that got dumped on.

cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Nov 13 2007, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

the founding director of ARW just now announces he sold his shares early october.

i'd be spitting chips if i was a shareholder thumbdown.gif
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Mork
Posted on: Oct 31 2007, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Record production, record prices, increased capacity / decreased costs

This stock is an investors wet dream.

Still holding this little beauty and hope others have done well also.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 26 2007, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

SOT are on record as saying that they are looking at acquisitions but they will not overpay, and if they can't find a good buy they will return money to shareholders.

we all know they are looking at CDR so there's a chance they may get something worthwhile here, but if not maybe a capital return is on the cards.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Oct 9 2007, 03:33 PM


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Posts: 321

Datum,

It all leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth. I still think this stock has a lot of potential but have come to the conclusion that it will be a good stock for the next bull market! Too much stuff has to get sorted out before shareholders might see a decent return.

I saw in the annual report that BXP now charge ONQ 15% interest for the ever growing loan so a big chunk of the reported profit is this interest, that NEVER gets paid thumbdown.gif

i went back and had a look at the old ONQ annual report and in the notes it says that they have taken a margin loan over there holding in BXP. Given the amount that they also owe BXP you've got to question how this money will ever get repaid?

What irks me the most was the big loan to an undisclosed party that was mentioned in the annual report. Given the amount was a big chunk of the company market cap why this wasn't disclosed previously is very strange.

I see there is another attempt to kick Peter McDougall off the ONQ board. But as the minority shareholders have been treated like mushrooms its pretty hard to know who the good guys & bad guys are.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 19 2007, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

The final report is out & the telco business made a normalised profit of $12.7m and they have $80m cash of which probably $60m is excess assuming the debt they have now is ok.

This was less than i was looking for on both counts so it seems SOT is fairy valued around these levels.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 17 2007, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Fatty,

Using your figures SOT has a EV of $43m (Market Cap minus Cash)

and CDR would how a EV of $340m.

Makes SOT look incredibly cheap - which i think it is. Just have to wait for the final report and the last of the sellers to dry up because of the removal from S&P300 index.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 17 2007, 10:42 AM


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Posts: 321

Datum,

Thats a good find. Also BXP tell us that they made $3m from BOPO - assume that there were an average of 10,000 cards for the whole FY and that would be $300 profit per card. No way there making this per card so i think there fudging the figures somehow.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 13 2007, 03:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi Farmer Fred,

I've made an assumption that the telco business as a stand alone business is carrying a appropriate level of debt going forward so the $140m is excess cash. I hold management in high regard so i'm fairly confident that the money will be used wisely.

My post was a bit ambiguous so i hope this clarifies my thinking.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Sep 12 2007, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hi anne,

SOT might be worth a look at.

They sold there media division for $250m and after paying off debt and a special dividend have $170m laying idle. I'm guessing that another $30m will go in tax as they made approx $100m profit on the sale.

This leaves a lazy $140m versus a m/c of $215m

For $75m they've got a telco business that made $8m npat on a normalised basis in the first half 07

So for now i'm using $16m full year on $75m giving a p/e of 4.7 after taking out the excess cash. Should be reporting next week so will find out how close to the mark this it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Sep 7 2007, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

normc,

equity dilution is the main risk i see also.

the long term debt is a convertable bond and i've actually just finished going thru the amendments that were made during the bond issue. The original conversion price for the bonds was set at $1.32 but during the issue period, amendments were made to the terms that allows the conversion price to be reset on different dates at a much lower conversion price. I think the worst case allowing for conversion and options there could be close to 600m fpo's on issue if the bonds were converted to shares.

too hard to tell imo. like you say next 12mths is key. if they make there projected profit it appears cheap, but any problems and it looks expensive considering the risks.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

The IEA is forecasting a period of strongly increasing demand. Given that current supply seems to be around the 85-86mbpd the question is is the supply out there?

I would normally favour a weaker oil price post sept/oct but every now and then these reliable cycles don't happen.
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  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

SOT due to report on 19/09/07

Cheers,
M

  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 27 2007, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Jack, welcome as a OMH shareholder

$15m profit for the half shows a good turnaround. Dissappointing that Bootu Creek still lost money but the results for the trading division and ferro alloy plant were fantastic. 2nd half should be even better with Bootu Creek becoming profitable and i suspect a really good result from the alloy plant in china, though the trading division won't repeat the extra profit from the sale of the iron ore marketing rights.

Nice to get a dividend, and still happy to hold for the full year results.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Aug 18 2007, 09:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

I've bought into SLX for the first time on Thur/Fri.

Thanks to everyone on this thread as its seems to be one of the better ones on SS. Very valuable contributions for a stock like this.

Cheers,
M
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

alonso,
just had a look at IRM curtesy of MICK 2006 on that thread.

this could be the big magnetite play they are looking at, much cheaper for TFE than anything else

MK & Noble are pretty cagey, so i think theres been a bit of a smoke screen to try and disguise what there really up to. Noble already has offtake agreement with PMA (& CSM) so i'm sure the status quo would suit them just fine.

Still not sure if any of this explains TTY share price strenght? AFR article described the manganese project in Africa as very high grade reserves 4m tonnes @ 58% but no infrastructure & the nearest rail line is 1000km from the project. They are trying to get the world bank to finance a rail line to within 200km to get the project off the ground. The project is also currently owned by a Dubai based group? (MK just got a listing in Dubai for MON!) A stranded mn project that would take 5 years to develop doesn't seem like something that the market would pay up for either?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 25 2007, 01:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

PMA went into a trading halt at the same time so we could be seeing the first merger as part of TTY's expansion plans?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 14 2007, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

AFR reported today that Manganese is up 30% in the past week and 240% ytd.

This is looking better all the time, should still be lots of upside left in this one. biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 9 2007, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

AFR yesterday said Mn spot prices trading between US$5.00 & US$8.50 CIF in China.

I don't know how directors can continue to recommend the bid as a good deal for share holders.

Of course the the bid is a pretty good deal for the directors devilsmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 9 2007, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

AFR yesterday said Mn spot prices trading between US$5.00 & US$8.50 CIF in China

OMH shareholding in TFE is now valued $25m+

I'm putting a value of $60m for the alloy plant and metal trading business. This is probably conservative if you beleive in the stronger for longer China story

The remainder $70m for Bootu Ceek still looks very cheap - i get cash earnings at $100m pa @ US$6.00

Director has been buying on market at $0.69 and the price has been well supported despite the volatility in world markets.

I've been buying in a small way over the last couple of weeks to add to my position - mainly to help me stay in the trade as it can be very tempting to grab profits when the price has gone up so strongly compared to the $0.22 rights issue 5 weeks ago



  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Bought a small parcel in this. You've got to love releasing the farmout agreement late friday, i don't know why they didn't hold off until Monday.

Anyway although only an MOU at this stage will this be enough to get the options over the line? Anythings possible so i think its worth having a small at this stage.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 31 2007, 11:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

If you think the bubble in china is crazy have a look at this.

The ZSE is up 12,000% for the year. With inflation running at a lowly 1,700+% this would be a pretty handy return!


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: May 16 2007, 03:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

There also seems to be a bit of a board room struggle over at ONQ with a call for a meeting to appoint new director's. I suspect this might something to do with the interest in BXP?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 7 2007, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Hayboys,

I got the manganese prices from The Northern Miner

I'v have a hard time finding other priceing info, but they had the manganese price at $2.70 in FEB which ties into the $3.00CIF price that OMH reported in the Annual Report which was for a shipment in February. Since then i've got the managnese price riseing to $3.70 at the end of MAR and $4.70 at the end of APR. They have stated they will ship 180T in the June Qtr so i guess we will have to wait if they can hit the target and at what price.

As for investors selling, i'm only comparing the 2005 top20 to the 2006 top20. the only ones to sell were Westpac / ANZ / Citigroup. I'll leave it to you to make your own conclusions about why they sold.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 5 2007, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

The gann research was great to listen to, but the funny thing was i keep on looking for what the oil price actually did in the 70's but they seem to forgot to include it in there research!

As the price went from approx $2 in 1970 to $40 in 1979/80 it seems like one of the best markets to be in back then!
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mork
Posted on: May 3 2007, 12:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

The xej energy index also broke out to a new ATH yesterday. I think we might start to see more positive sentiment towards the oilers after generally been bashed to really cheap valuations. Those expecting NWE to retrace price-wise like the past could be very dissapointed?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 3 2007, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

as i'm waiting for the rights issue shares to appear in my account i had a look at manganese spot prices to see that there up over 100% from 31/12/06

despite the $30m loss last year, the dilution of the share issue, and the doubling of the share price i'm still very bullish.

i suspect part of the reason for the huge fall at the end of last year was insto's dumping as the m/c fell dramatically below $100m. The only big sellers of the top 20 were Westpac, Citigroup, and ANZ. Everyone either maintaned their holding or increased it. If the price gets back up to the $0.50 level it will be interesting to see if the insto's get back on board as the m/c goes back over $100m. Particularly if CSM dissapears from the ASX.

I've got the spot price above $4.50 at the end of April. At this price i've got Bootu Creek earning +$60m cash earnings for a full year at 550k tpa 43%mn & $0.83aud/us and cash cost of $120/T (omh used $105 in a presenation last year). Throw in the trading business which should make +$10m this year on the back of selling the iron ore marketing rights, a profitable alloy plant in China, and the TFE shareholding worth $17m at the current market price of $0.69, OMH still looks a cheap play on the commodities cycle to me.

please DYOR, as this is shameless ramp on my part!
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: May 1 2007, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

There's only really too big sellers on the sell side

573k @ $0.19 & 485k @ $0.195

they've been there for a week or so but they keep moving to the back of the queue - obviously they don't won't to sell. someone playing games to try and keep a cap on the price!
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 03:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: abetha on Tuesday 24/04/07 02:50pm

Have a look at ETE it also sold off big time, & they flow tested a well at 50MMcfpd and 380bbl's of condensate.

I think its just the O&G sector in general - it looks like its bottomed and primed for a run but initially there's lots of volatility due to general scepticism about the sector as a whole.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mork
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 12:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

Thanks Jaolso for the link, i'm slowly making my way thru the chapters.

I've finished up to 1926 and the following similarities struck me:


1920–26

World economic leadership passing to the US

UK & Europe struggling due to the after affects of WW1

World was on a Gold standard with US holding the most gold

The Dow tripling in value 1920 – 1926 yet all the experts bearish on the US Stock Market

US interest rates low

The average American buying stocks as an investment due to higher returns than cash.


2000-07


World economic leadership passing to the China / Asia

US struggling due to the War in Iraq/Afghanistan

USD as the world reserve currency with China holding the most USD reserves

The Chinese Market tripling in value 2005 – 2007 yet all the experts bearish on the Chinese Stocks

Chinese interest rates low

Chinese opening new brokerage accounts at the rate of 1million per week.


Its a great read, thanks again.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Apr 23 2007, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 321

In reply to: raauul on Monday 23/04/07 04:50pm

WMC actually thought Long was worth $2 - $5m, and i'm sure some of the other mines they later sold they would of been happy to give away at the time. IGO easly outbid quite a number of others at the time of the purchase.

BHP actually still do pretty well from all this as the nickel payable is on the value of the concentrate which might be any where between 60% - 65% of the nickel price, so BHP are picking up the other 35%
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 18 2007, 04:16 PM


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Thanks CO,

that would make it the lowest GOR of all the nearbye fields - all good for higher recoveries.

i got it back too front in my previous post - Skua is the depleted field and Montara is the new development by Coogee - both 54% recovery. my apologies
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 18 2007, 02:58 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: King Baz on Wednesday 18/04/07 01:01pm

QUOTE
AC/P22 is worth >$100M to NWE over 5-years imo.


I'm working of a figure around $95m, but i'm trying to not get too far ahead of the game.

What gets me real excited in the medium term is further AC/P22 exploration targets plus the Nth Sea.

Say Joe can farm out on a promote basis all the other North Sea acerage down to a 25% equity holding. In time NWE will be particpating in a number of high impact wells on close to a free carried basis. If we get a decent size discovery NWE will be in the position to fund its share of a development out of the $100m royalty etc, without dilution or further reducing equity in a discovery.

This is a longer term view but NWE looks to be positioned perfectly.

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Mork
Posted on: Apr 18 2007, 12:45 PM


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Posts: 321

Agreed KB, initially i was a little wary of the high recovery rates being used but now i'm very comfortable. I'm sure i've also read that puffin oil has a very low gas oil ratio but can't seem too find it at the moment. This is also helps the recovery rate.

Of the initial range of recovery rates estimated the low case of 44% corelates with what coggee expects to get from Swallow when they tie it back to the Skua development.

Swallow has OOIP of 3.1m bbls and reserves of 1.2m bbls! I couldn't believe they were going after such a small amount of oil offshore.
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 18 2007, 12:19 PM


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Posts: 321

The reported recoveries for the 3 fields close by that are close to being depleted are

Jabiru 79%
Challis 59%
Montara 54%

this is from the recent coogee prospectus.

all these fields plus Laminaria/Corallina/Buffalo further north all seem to have a history of reserve upgrades after production has commenced.

Hopefully Puffin can follow this pattern over time.
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 11:40 AM


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Posts: 321

and another picture...

from AIP website you can track the price of Tapis grade crude.

At US$75 per barrel, it looks like good timing to be starting production soon.

Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 10 2007, 02:29 PM


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Posts: 321

Seems like manganese prices are up over 80% since the start of the year. I'm not sure about the accuracy of these prices, but this would put spot prices at around USD$4.10 - $4.20. The US geological survey also publishes prices but they are about 3-4 months behind.

CSM should be printing money at these prices, so only a matter of time before a new T/O proposal is tabled one would think.
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Mork
Posted on: Apr 7 2007, 05:35 PM


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Posts: 321

Apparrently ATO has just released a ruling that CFD's are OK for SMSF but cash must be put up as margin, - they won't allow margin to be covered by securities already held.

as always best to get expert advice etc.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 02:00 PM


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Posts: 321

Spot on Marsupial,

It will take time but if Bounder delivers $1 will be close to fair value for Puffin and Bounder alone.

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Mork
Posted on: Apr 1 2007, 03:29 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: spartz on Sunday 01/04/07 06:31am

QUOTE
It seems to me that it really is all about psychology and I would love to hear from others


I spent tens years when i first started trading (part time with a full time job) seemingly going thru cycles of making large gains then giving them back. While a lot of this was due to making all the common mistakes as i learned the skills to trade/invest, i also found that at some level i didn't truly believe i deserved those large gains i made.

We grow up hearing rich people are greedy / the love of money is evil etc.

I think you need to truly believe you deserve your gains to keep them and grow them. This is not a new idea as i've found it mentioned in many books on trading physchology.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mork
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 03:27 PM


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Posts: 321

The new DJC research report is on NWE website now.
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 11:37 AM


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Posts: 321

The director who sold all his shares a few weeks back at 46cents must be kicking himself!
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 27 2007, 01:12 PM


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Yeh moves on newspaper/ magazine articles don't get me excited.

But he was quoted something along the lines of - the reserves only come from a few pits and we've got 55 targets and we're going to drill the crap out of them!

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Mork
Posted on: Mar 27 2007, 12:22 PM


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Posts: 321

There was an article in yesterdays AFR about TFE with M.K. saying he has already aggressively expanded exploration to increase mine life. It also said they were looking at a magnetite project, big future plans for TFE etc...

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Mork
Posted on: Mar 27 2007, 10:46 AM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: Marsupial on Tuesday 27/03/07 10:42am

Lavaca County is where AMU have had something like a 80% success rate drilling the wilcox sands. hopefully this can continue with FAR
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 26 2007, 01:24 PM


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Posts: 321

Nickel Concentrate used to be priced at approx 65% of the Nickel Price when sold to a smelter.

Nickel matte would have a value of approx 90% of the Nickel Price which could then be refined to pure Nickel.

I'm not sure of the present % values but this should give a rough idea.
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2007, 04:38 PM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: investor on Thursday 22/03/07 04:02pm

Agree that these weather related issues provide oppportunity.

It was a good thing that they didn't have substantial debt at the time, though it shouldn't of been a problem to arrange standstill agreements on any debt. I'm sure there hedge position at the time caused a lot of pain for management as natural gas was sky rocketing, making margin calls with no production.
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2007, 04:14 PM


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Posts: 321

Mosaic,

As we were assessing the risks, thought i'd throw it in to see how holders felt.

Like you, it's just a matter of whether i can make money taking a position in PSA.

I think everyone can see the upside potential, it just trying to get a handle on the downside. If its just a matter of Ords dumping because of sour grapes it could be a good entry point.

Cheers

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Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2007, 03:22 PM


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Posts: 321

Annaliese, i would normally aggree with you as i take forecasts with a grain of salt. I much prefer to make my own and get them wrong wink.gif

However these forecasts over the last two years were so spot on they were spooky. They were also published months in advanced covering general weather patterns for all of North America, so it wasn't an after the fact i told you so.

The general gist of the forecast for this hurricane was a high probability of 2 major hurricanes to hit the gulf.

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Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2007, 02:44 PM


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Posts: 321

Back on my radar screen at these levels too.

However, how do holders assess the risk of the upcoming hurricane season?

A forecaster whom i greatly respects thinks this will be a bad season for hurricanes. While this would be bullish for oil / US natural gas, there's got to be some uncertaintly when your main producing assets could be in the firing line?
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 22 2007, 01:13 PM


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Posts: 321

The quality of the crude from puffin has been briefly mention but i think its an important point.

July futures for oil are trading around $63 & it gets higher the further you go out - Tapis crude trades at a premium to this and Oil from Puffin will receive a premium to Tapis.

Not all reserve are the same. There's alot fields around with large OIP potential but when you look at the quality of the oil, it is sometimes bordering on black sludge or bitumen.

You have to discount the cashflow from the royalty, but i think NNJ's use of $50 to get a nominal value of the royalty stream might actually undervalue the ultimate NPV of the royalty given his conservatism on other factors. (btw i think it's better that NNJ does this rather than over promise)

A lot depends on oil prices going forward, and i admit to being a bull on oil prices at these levels, but it looks a good bet.
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Mork
Posted on: Mar 21 2007, 10:28 AM


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Posts: 321

In reply to: albion on Wednesday 21/03/07 10:13am

happy to be wrong Albion, it happens alot! lol

PPP does look technically strong, so good luck to all holders.

just thought i'd share a different view as PPP doesn't fit my method for oilers. i agree absolutely about different opinions - in fact that's what i look for the most from SS post when i'm interested in a stock.

hope everyone makes lots $$$$$$$
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