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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:43 AM
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Price action continues to be strong. That's the number one factor, and we continue to stand behind it for as long as it lasts.

2
Among some of the extreme bullish readings we monitor, for the first time since we've been tracking it, at least 80% of the SPX, NDX and RTY components are trading above their 20, 50 and 200 Day MAs simultaneously.

3
The US Dollar now is down 11% from its March highs, which is the second worst drawdown since 2011. Only the January, 2017 - February, 2018 decline was worse at -14%. The start of both declines happened near the 103 level. In 2018, it found a floor near 89. The USD is getting closer to that major support zone again now.

4
When the Dollar bottomed in 2018, global indices began to visibly underperform the US. This divergence lasted until the fourth quarter when the SPX finally caught "down" to the rest of the world.

5
The bottom line is that is many European and Asian indices had record months in November. A continued falling Dollar helped them a major way. If the Dollar suddenly reverses course like it did in 2018, it will be challenging for many global indices to hold these lofty price levels, at least in the short-term.


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the study shows connection between currencies and index movement, or some sort!! unsure.gif
to me SPX going up in short term, major market are really bullish!!

asx200 is benefiting from these bullishness and refuse to retreat !! seems stay long is the only way to go for this market!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Dec 2 2020, 08:21 AM
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The Bottom Line:
1
We can view the current set up in two very distinct ways: The SPX's 11% rally this month is huge and can't be sustained, let alone extended upon, over the next four weeks. OR: The SPX is just +1.6% over a three month period (from September 2nd), with a lot further to go.

2
The SPX continues to leverage a very solid foundation. That has had (and continues to have) bullish implications, as the various constructive chart formations clearly show.

3
Short-term, all of this great price action has resulted in some extended indicator work. One example is the 10 Day MA of the Equity Put Call Ratio.

4
The BEST case scenario for December would be seeing the market digest the recent action, with the SPX preferably staying above 3,500 - just like it did earlier this month.
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it is one of calculated study for SPX . sound like bullish but will have a little consolidation first!!
from TA point of view SPX is targeted 3745ish this month. but we all know how reliable the TA is these days!! weirdsmiley.gif


asx200 will be on the watch, if banks and miners have another go to the upside then 6700 will be over come . but i doubt it!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 04:00 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Dec 1 2020, 08:35 AM

sitting on the fence watch it running higher all day. weirdsmiley.gif

this market is really unstoppable !!



 
early birds
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 08:35 AM
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only EU market looked well last night's session, i guess a lot short term money flock into that market.
US market ----not too bad it rallied up from the low. closed well!!

asx200 might have a test at 6500ish as round number for a lot of options, warrents to be issued there, also it is a support.

keep eye on it for me , still sitting on fence!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 30 2020, 05:52 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 30 2020, 03:23 PM

as i pointed out this morning before the bell "asx200 future is up as well. i won't chase it higher from here [just me]!! support is 6600 for today!!"

i saw the move when asx200 hit through 6600 support. short term trader start to selling everything, amazing, it is last date of the month.

currently i see other major market cooling off from overbought condition , how low it can drop is unsure story atm
just too much headline news all over the places!!




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nipper
post Posted: Nov 30 2020, 03:23 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 30 2020, 08:03 AM

twas not to be, eb .
Sell off at closing time dropped another 30pt loss on what was a negative day from 11am on ...... down 83pts in the end. (Amateurs open, Professionals close)

All the pundits were hyping the story for a Miracle November. (Vaccine, Biden, cash sloshing around) but it was not to be.






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


early birds
post Posted: Nov 30 2020, 08:03 AM
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no major event happen since thanks giving till now...

so we see SPX future popped up, seems unstoppable to the up side, even most of indicators at overbought line.

asx200 future is up as well. i won't chase it higher from here [just me]!! support is 6600 for today!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 27 2020, 08:35 AM
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asx200 come off the boil yesterday
looks weak as well at opening. as US market closed for holiday.

6600should be hold if not, then look down to 6550---6560ish for up side support!!
it is Friday, and US market closed for holiday----- suppose we will have a lack lackluster day today!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 26 2020, 08:39 AM
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happy thanks giving!! if someone living in USA.

as US market in holiday ,
asx200 might have thinner volume erratic move if something happening during two session.

otherwise asx200 might grind higher from here!!

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The Bottom Line:
1
The recipe has been for the SPX to leverage periods of consolidation, breakout and repeat. That very simple, yet powerful, phenomenon has just taken place again over the last two weeks, with yesterday's action providing the latest pattern breakout. The target is up near 3,745.

2
During an uptrend like this, timing the next pullback is challenging. That being said, we should still address the indicators when the pendulum swings from one extreme to the other.

3
In particular, the % of S&P 500 stocks with overbought 14-Day RSI readings and the % trading above their 20 Day Moving Averages are both near 2020 extremes. The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index is flashing EXTREME Greed, as well. It's at a level of 88, the highest since early February.

4
The price action remains strong, bullish patterns continue to work, breadth is robust and seasonality is supportive. That's all undoubtedly bullish, but it's also produced these stretched indicator measurements, which puts some pressure on the market's short-term risk-reward profile.
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DYOR as always !

 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 25 2020, 09:40 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 25 2020, 08:46 AM

good job nipper graduated.gif

not sure how long this bullishness can last??

it's like screaming hot atm..



 
 


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