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TESLA, The Ambitions of Musk
early birds
post Posted: Nov 21 2020, 05:50 PM
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DJ Tesla Stock Will See Demand From More Than Just Index Funds. Here Are the Stocks That Might Suffer. -- Barrons.com
Friday, November 20, 2020 06:39:24 PM (GMT)



By Al Root

Goldman Sachs says some mutual funds will have to add Tesla stock to keep up with benchmark returns, now that the electric-vehicle pioneer will join the S&P 500 index. That's more demand for Tesla shares above and beyond what S&P 500 index funds have to buy. And, as is the case with any stock portfolios with relatively fixed assets, funds buying Tesla shares have to sell something to make room.

The indexers, of course, are adding Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) to portfolios because Tesla is going into the S&P 500 on Dec. 21. That decision came down on Monday.

The news has sparked a bit of a buying frenzy of Tesla stock this week. Traders have snatched up shares in advance of index purchases, hoping to unload them at a higher price as Dec. 21 approaches. Tesla stock is up about 20% for the week and hit a new 52-week high of about $508 a share on Thursday.

The Goldman Sachs (GS) portfolio strategy research team pointed out in a Friday report that of the 189 mutual funds tracked that invest in large-capitalization stocks, 157 of them didn't hold Tesla shares at the start of the fourth quarter.

That's quite a revelation: Tesla is a very large-capitalization stock and not easy to miss. It's the world's most valuable auto maker and will likely enter the S&P 500 as one of the top 10 stocks, measured by market value.

One reason some funds don't hold stock in the EV behemoth is that Tesla stock's performance -- without being a part of the S&P indexes -- doesn't affect the benchmarks those funds use. There is less pressure to own a highflying, highly valued stock if it doesn't affect a fund's performance versus its competition daily.

Keeping up with a benchmark is a daily grind for active mutual-fund managers, so managing stock positions that aren't in a benchmark is a headache many appear not to want.

Goldman calculates demand for Tesla stock of about $8 billion if those large-cap mutual funds buy the benchmark weighting of Tesla -- in addition to what index funds will be buying.

Tesla stock routinely trades more than $20 billion in value on a given day, so the $8 billion figure isn't all that large -- especially compared with the tens of billions needing to be purchase by passive index funds. Still, it is more demand for shares that Tesla bulls and aggressive traders will try to capitalize on in coming weeks.

Goldman also listed some of the most over-owned stocks -- relative to benchmark weighting -- held by the same funds. They include: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Citigroup ©, Adobe (ADBE), Medtronic (MDT) AIG (AIG), TE Connectivity (TEL), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Comcast (CMCSA), and Lowe's (LOW). Selling those 10 stocks might be a small source of funds for managers buying Tesla in coming weeks.

Most of the time, any projected impact from index reshuffling would be temporary and largely a nonevent. But as always, Tesla stock tends to be an exception to the rule. Its moves often are larger than most -- which means that any event that affects trading can make the potential amount of money made -- or lost -- very significant.
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nipper
post Posted: Nov 20 2020, 09:43 AM
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From a FT blog:

Morgan Stanley go all in on Tesla: It is expensive on what we know, and cheap on what we do not.


18 Nov 2020 by Jamie Powell


We have joked before on this blog about how the market is rewarding businesses where the pitch seems to be their profitability is as far away as logic can stretch. Don't think about what we are, think about what we might become, and then add 10 years, seems to be the mantra.

Take this one example. Back in early June, we took a look at a Goldman note on Chinese electric car maker Nio, which derived its price target for the business from its forecasted 2030 earnings. Nine whole years away.

Oh, how we laughed at time. After all, it is insanity to think, particularly after this year of all years, that anyone knows what the electric car market will look like in 2025, let alone five years after that.

Of course, the stock is up 732 per cent since. Nice one.

Yet, even though we have got used to EV/ebitda multiples based on 2025 earnings being slapped on upstart companies, we were not quite ready for what landed in our inbox from Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas this morning.

A new note on Tesla, obvs, and, as might be expected, a higher price target: $540 up from $360 .... putting Mr Jonas firmly second among the sellside fraternity.

The valuation is derived from a sum of the parts method ... a well worn practice of valuing different segments of a business to form a total valuation. Of what though? Well . . . we'll just leave you to gawp at this:

Tesla Auto: $254/share. 10 yr DCF derived. We assumes 3.8 million units by 2030 (from ~500k in 2020). Exit ebitda margin of 18.7% (12.2% EBIT). WACC of 8.0%, terminal value ebitda multiple of 13.0x. Valuation implies 24.4x 2022 EV/ebitda or 12.6x 2025 EV/ebitda.

Tesla Energy: $12/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 607 MW of solar deployed (from 179 MW today) and 11.8 GWh of Storage deployed by 2030 (from 2.1 GWh today). 13% revenue CAGR from 2019 to 2040. Gross margins of 25.0% by 2030. WACC of 9.5%. Terminal Growth Rate (TGR) of 4.0%. Valuation implies 30.5x 2022 EV/ebitda or 19.2x 2025 EV/ebitda.

Tesla Insurance: $15/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 18% penetration of Tesla Insurance from its vehicles in service with underwriting margins of 14.0% in 2030. WACC of 10.0%. TGR of 3.0%. Valuation implies 28x2025 EV/Sales as the business is still in the early stages of roll out.

Tesla Mobility/Ride sharing: $38/share. 10 yr DCF derived. We assume the 'robotaxi' fleet rises to >500k by 2030 (2.3% of total Tesla car parc) with $1.70/mile and OP margins of 14.7% in 2030 vs 0% in 2025. WACC of 10.0%, TGR of 4.0%. Valuation implies 7.8x 2025 EV/Sales.

Tesla Network Services: $164/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume a 12mm connected fleet by 2030 (60% penetration/attachment rate) with ARPU of $100 by 2030. 60% 2030 ebitda margin. Probability of 80% ascribed (i.e.20% discount to valuation of NPV). WACC of 8.0% (same as core Auto Co despite better financials) and TGR of 4.0%. Valuation implies 36.3x 2025 EV/Sales or 60.5x 2025 EV/ebitda or 0.42x 2025 EV/Sales to growth (0.92x 2022 EV/Sales to growth) in line with the highest growth SaaS firms.

Tesla as a 3rd Party Supplier: $58/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 2.5mm 3rd party EV powertrain shipments at 20% EBIDTA (sic) margins. WACC of 9%. ebitda terminal multiple of 17x. Valuation implies 3.5x 025 EV/Sales


It really has it all doesn't it? But special attention should be drawn to the discounted cash flow analyses on Tesla Network Services, Tesla Mobility and Tesla as a Third Party Suppler ... particularly the latter two, as they literally do not exist at the moment anywhere except in the wild imagination of Tesla bulls.

As one buyside analyst remarked to us on the note, "it's expensive on what we know, and cheap on what we don't. We couldnt have put it better ourselves....

REUTERS




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 08:20 AM
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In Reply To: Danville's post @ Nov 17 2020, 08:38 AM

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3637429-tesla...e=seeking_alpha

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it is about TSLA , but i don't know how to open the link that friend of mine sent to me!! i'm still stupid with computer. sorry!! blush.gif



 
Danville
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 08:38 AM
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Tesla jumps 9% plus on inclusion to the S&P.
graduated.gif Woo hoo!


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nipper
post Posted: Sep 29 2020, 10:26 AM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Sep 28 2020, 10:05 PM

And integration with internet Of Things, mobile data bases



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Mags
post Posted: Sep 28 2020, 10:05 PM
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All mainstream manufacturers (where Tesla wants to go) make the bulk of their profits off of service, repairs and parts.
Until Tesla can make the actual selling of their cars magnificently profitable, there is going to be endless refinancing, new investors and government grants.
Not investment worthy.
That companies like Tesla exist, isn't a testament to Musk or the technology, but rather a sign of how sick our currency, and by implication, our economies really are.
I still sit this one out. I'll stick with my dividend and franking credit spewing portfolio thanks.



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Nopoo
post Posted: Sep 28 2020, 01:18 PM
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fyi,


"The global electric vehicle market at $39.8 billion in 2018 is projected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2025. Units sales are anticipated to reach 97 million vehicles worldwide by 2025" - Wintergreen Research Inc.


Ideanomics Reported Q2 Revenue of $4.7 million and Forecasts Quarter-over-Quarter EV Sales Growth in Q3 and Q4 2020


September 2020 - There are many investment opportunities for investors who want to capitalize on the growing EV industry. Leading the way is Tesla (Nasdaq-TSLA) who has seen tremendous amount of market attention and share appreciation in 2020. One company that is doing creative business in the EV sector is Ideanomics Inc. (Nasdaq-IDEX).

Ideanomics current focus is on commercial electric vehicle acquisitions and assisting commercial fleet operators with transitioning from their gas & diesel fleets through a procurement, lease financing, insurance, government rebates and subsidies, battery purchases and prepaid energy supply process and therefore providing “End to End” EV services.

Ideanomics names their platform “Sales to Financing to Charging” (S2F2C) business model.

Commercial fleet vehicles include heavy- duty trucks, logistic vehicles, buses, taxis, couriers, and the like.

China currently has an estimated 11 million heavy- duty trucks and off-road vehicles, 14 million delivery vehicles, 1.6 million city and tourist buses, 1.2 million taxis/ride-sharing vehicles, and more than 100,000 gas stations which are going to be converted into battery charging stations.

Ideanomics is doing business with these Chinese commercial fleet operators and is providing EV acquisitions, wholesale and pre-paid electricity or discounted access to Ideanomics’ preferred partner charging stations, which will be a recurring revenue stream for the Company.

Ideanomics established a new division named the Medici Motor Works to manufacture and sell EV Trucks, Vans & Bus into North America and other parts of the world.

To operate successfully in China Ideanomics has Chinese American entrepreneur billionaire Dr. Bruno Wu, who is the Chairman of Ideanomics who owns a 19% equity stake in the Company. Dr. Bruno Wu’s wife, Yang Lan, is a high-profile Chinese media personality who is often referred to as the Oprah Winfrey of China.

Vice Chairman Mr. Shane McMahon owns 4% and is from the multi billionaire American McMahon family which owns World Wresting Entertainment. (WWE)

Ideanomics recently reported Q2 revenue of $4.7 million, up from $378,000 in Q1. The Company ended the quarter with reducing its debt by ~ 50% and US$36.4 million in cash, which it says could be used for acquisitions later this year. IDEX called the second quarter its best mobile energy results since moving into electric vehicle sales. Further, Ideanomics forecasts quarter-over-quarter growth in Q3 and Q4 2020.

Another important component of IDEX’s future growth will come from its 51% majority ownership of Treeletrik, an approved electric vehicles manufacturer and distributor for Malaysia. As Treeletrik expands its product line to electric vehicle E bikes, mopeds, cars, and light rail cars and serving the 650 million people in the ASEAN region which includes Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Singapore, and Brunei.

As the global EV sector continues its current growth trajectory with China being the largest EV market in the world, making up 57% of the global market as of April 2020; along with a market cap of $250 M and strong institutional and fund ownership with shareholders like BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Charles Schwab, Barclay's, and Fidelity, Ideanomics is well positioned to take advantage of this growth and capitalize on the EV market and provide investors with an opportunity for significant ROI.


Ideanomics Inc. (Nasdaq-IDEX) End to End EV Solutions


Revenue of $4.7 million Q2 and Expects Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth in Q3 and Q4 2020



557 EV Units Processed at MEG EV Center in Qingdao for July & August an Increase from Q 2


China is already the largest EV market in the world, making up 57% of the global market as of April 2020.


Ideanomics reported $4.7M Q2 in revenues in August. Most of the performance and growth of the company was brought about by the EV sales business of MEG, a Chinese subsidiary of Ideanomics.


Proactive Investor CEO Interview

Sept 17, 2020


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVsrMFo4uec


Ideanomics Revenue Streams


Commercial EV Sales

Lease Financing – Sales

Qingdao EV Hub Sales

Medici Motor Works Trucks, Vans & Bus Sales

Treeletrik E Bike Sales




Energy Sales

Prepaid Electricity Commercial Fleet Sales

EV Fast Charging Network Sales

5G Smart City Energy Sales

Electricity Debit Card Sales (with China’s Union Pay)




Share Structure August 4, 2020


Market Cap $389,177,181

Outstanding Shares 237,303,159

Restricted Shares 73,424,144

Unrestricted Shares 163,531,862

52 Week Hi-lo $3.98-$0.27


Major Institutional Ownership: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Charles Schwab, Barclay's, Fidelity


Symbol: IDEX: Nasdaq

www.ideanomics.com



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Nopoo
 
Nopoo
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 12:12 PM
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Yes Battery day was interesting and not what the market was looking for imo

EV sector continues it's momentum, TESLA leading the way

fyi,

NEWS - Ideanomics Hires Fuel Cell Expert for Its EV Truck Division

https://investors.ideanomics.com/2020-09-23...earch-Institute








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Nopoo
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 23 2020, 10:06 AM
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speaking at the much hyped Battery Day, EM said a few things and TLSA shares fell heavily
Building an affordable electric car has always been our dream from the beginning of the company, Musk told an online audience of more than 270,000.

However, Musk described a new generation of electric vehicle batteries that will be more powerful, longer lasting and half as expensive than the company's current cells .

The new Tesla larger cylindrical cells, called 4680, will provide five times more energy, six times more power and 16 per cent greater driving range, Musk said, adding that full production is about three years away.

We do not have an affordable car. That's something we will have in the future. But we've got to get the cost of batteries down, Musk said.

To help reduce cost, Musk said Tesla planned to recycle battery cells at its Nevada gigafactory, while reducing cobalt, one of the most expensive battery materials, to virtually zero. It also plans to make its own battery cells at several highly automated factories around the world.

Tesla will produce the new battery cells initially on a new assembly line near its vehicle plant in Fremont, California, with planned output reaching 10 gigawatt hours a year by the end of next year. Tesla and partner Panasonic now have production capacity of about 35 gWh at the Nevada battery gigafactory.

Tesla aims to rapidly ramp up battery production over the next few years, to 3 terawatt hours a year, or 3000 gigawatt hours; .... roughly 85 times greater than the capacity of the Nevada plant.

The car maker plans to produce the new cells via a highly automated, continuous motion assembly process, according to Drew Baglino, Tesla senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering.

Musk acknowledged that Tesla does not have its new battery design and manufacturing process fully complete.





--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 19 2020, 03:09 PM
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22 Sept.... Battery Day


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/09/17/wil...at-battery-day/



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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