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A2M, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED
plastic
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 06:00 AM
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With the tariff action taken against TWE recently, the message is the Chinese are serious about what they say when it comes to trade retaliation.

That does not bode well for all those other China dependent trading companies including the likes of A2 Milk.

The chart certainly agrees with such a thing.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 08:43 AM
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The A2 Milk Company fell yesterday despite the company reaffirming earlier revenue guidance for the half-year to December and the June 30 full year. (it was one of the few companies to do so).

The shares fell 4.8% to $13.98.

The September guidance was to expect first-half revenue of $NZ725 million to $NZ775 million and full-year revenue of $NZ1.80 billion to NZ1.90 billion. An EBITDA margin of around 31% is also expected.

However, it has warned that its full-year guidance is dependent on an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in its China label business, which seems to be why the shares weakened yesterday.

Chairman David Hearn told the meeting:

We did also anticipate that there would be continuing short term softness in retail daigou, primarily due to reduced tourism from China and dramatically fewer international student numbers.

However, we did not anticipate the strict and prolonged lockdown in Victoria which has impacted our corporate daigou/reseller channel significantly.

As a consequence, with weakness in pricing and uncertainty for the duration of the lockdown, we have seen a significant downturn in this channel, and whilst we believe it will ultimately be temporary, it will have an impact on our performance this year, which we made clear to the market as soon as the extent became apparent.

And then theres the pandemic:

However, due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there is uncertainty to this forecast, CEO Geoff Babidge told the AGM yesterday.

But the company remains confident of the 2020-21 outcome.

We continue to observe strong underlying brand health metrics, in particular in China, including market share expansion, and growth of brand awareness and loyalty measures.

This gives us confidence that, notwithstanding the current headwinds, the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound, the meeting was reassured.

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still think it will going under 10 bucks within 6 months. unsure.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 28 2020, 08:31 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 28 2020, 05:52 PM

don't know about circuit break , but things strike me is that how come someone still try to paying over 17, 18 bucks for the stock and the tension between china and australia really gets higher months ago??

try to squeeze shorters like me ah?? cool.gif seems i'm the one had last laugh lmaosmiley.gif
to me it worth less than 10 bucks, as the relation gets uglier by the day,
i had a lot to say about it. but not in here. we just think about investment, dealing with what likely to happen and where to put our money!! tongue.gif




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nipper
post Posted: Sep 28 2020, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE
I am not alone in the business community saying that something needs to change [with Australia China relations]. We need to find some formula that works. The political tensions appear to be escalating and we need a circuit breaker
Geoff Babidge, CEO, The a2 Milk Company

A la recherche de daigous perdus



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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plastic
post Posted: Jan 30 2020, 04:06 AM
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Between the China deal and the just signed by Trump USMCA deal, dairy is going to go nuts for the Americans. If they are farming A2 herds then the writing must be on the wall for A2m.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
plastic
post Posted: Jan 18 2020, 07:00 PM
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If the biggest beneficiaries of the US - China trade deal are the farmers, then it would go without saying, dairy farmers will also be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

What will happen to the Au. N.Z. A2 milk demand if the Americans are able to supply the same or similar product with a trade agreement to ensure demand?
This scenario does not fill me full of optimism for a A2M shareholder's fate.




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 9 2019, 11:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Dec 9 2019, 08:46 AM

Extract AFR
QUOTE
Hearn insisted the board was right behind Hrdlicka’s strategy to ramp up marketing spending to help build the brand on the ground in China, where A2 Milk’s past strategy of selling into the country via the import channel known as the daigou trade will no longer deliver the same growth as it once did.

But where Hrdlicka has been prepared to sacrifice margin to get there, it appears that the board feels less sure about that part of the plan.


QUOTE
“The issue if there is one is about execution and balance. We want to balance between very strong growth and attractive margins.”


https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/behind-hrdl...20191209-p53i2b
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Dec 9 2019, 08:46 AM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Dec 9 2019, 07:18 AM

sound like board infighting ----bad sign for the Co.



 
plastic
post Posted: Dec 9 2019, 07:18 AM
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QUOTE
It is understood there may have been concerns about the direction the company had taken under Hyrdlickas tenure and her interaction with key stakeholders"


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12292063

CEO quits all of a sudden. Company brings back the old hand as interim CEO to commence immediately. Which means, the current CEO's agreement to step down as CEO is effective immediately.
Why then does she say she will, "work closely with the board and new CEO as required to ensure a smooth transition"? She must still be on contract but relieved of CEO duties hence the agreement.
But as the quote above states, its the stakeholders who are calling the shots. Since when do stakeholders, who are not shareholders, get to have the final say on hire and fire decisions? Was she working for shareholders before stakeholders? Or was she just there for a quick money grab? Ten million bucks for eighteen months isn't a bad gig. Which leaves the final query hanging; who is in the Board's ear?





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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 24 2019, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE
a2 Milk provided solid revenue guidance and margin upgrades at its AGM, thanks to price increases, product launches and benefits from the Synlait Milk contract renegotiation. Improved disclosure addressed a number of market concerns, Macquarie notes. The broker has made only minor forecast adjustments but has lifted its target to $16.20 from $15.70.

Outperform retained




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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