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Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 27 2011, 03:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

anroo,

I can confirm Blowout Preventer's comments regarding Euroz's valuation of CVN. It is not a matter of being short. BP is simply reporting what Euroz's report says.
The Euroz report also says that CVN's cash balance at end of Mar Quarter was $24 million which was $6 million below Euroz's estimate and is doe from $28 million at the end of December.
Euroz say that it is difficult to find proce catalysts other than from obtaining strong production from the upcoming wells. So here's hoping for those wells. Euroz also say that CVN they expect CVN will look for other SE Asian assets (which are in high demand) to decrease reliance on onshore Thailand.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 30 2011, 10:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I thought the little girl should have covering her eyes not her ears.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 27 2011, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

You could have gone further there Arty. Isn't Australia suppose to reduce its CO2 emissions by 5%.

So 5% of 0.18 milimetres is 9 micrometres (or 9 microns if you prefer the older terminology).
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 21 2011, 07:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The wealthy, elderly gentleman's statement that he would have borrowed more if he had his time over again is based on his "after the fact" knowledge that his investment decisions had paid off. It is a different matter to determine the level of risk to carry when one can not be sure of the future.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 20 2011, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Operator: Hello WEFU Insurance.

Me: I would like a quote on Third Party Fire and Theft Car Insurance please.

Operator and Me: blah blah details blah address blah blah

Operator: OK WEFU quote you Third Party Fire and Theft Car Insurance of $450 for one year with a $600 excess.

Me: That's acceptable. So if my car is stolen or is destroyed by fire, you will pay me the market value of my car.

Operator: Not at all sir. You do understand that this is Third Party Fire and Theft Car Insurance with WEFU. Only if the car you collide with is then immediately subsequent to the accident burns and then is immediately stolen WEFU will pay the owner of that vehicle the market value of that car less the $600 policy excess.

Me: What!!! I thought the Fire and Theft was for my car.

Operator: No sir. This is a third party property insurance. It doesn't cover your car.

Me: So why should I cover someone elses car for Theft or Fire?

Operator: No sir. WEFU quotes you for Fire and Theft of the third party car.

Me What do you mean? If I collide with another car and it subsequently does not burn or it is not stolen then WEFU does not pay out and you do not cover my car at all for fire or theft.

Operator: You are correct that we do not pay anything for your car as the policy is a Third Party policy, but you still do not fully understand when WEFU pays out on the other vehicle.

Me: Please explain......

Operator: The other car involved in a accident where you are at fault must be burnt and stolen.

Me: So the other car must be stolen after I collide with it or it burns after I collide with it for WEFU to pay out.

Operator: You are still not correct sir. Immediately after an accident where you are at fault, then car must start to burn and while it is burning it must be stolen.

Me: You are joking!!!!
Operator: WEFU never jokes sir!!!

Me: Well that is totally unacceptable. I hope you don't cover any properties in Queensland affected by the recent floods.

Operator: Actually sir, we cover heaps of properties covered by those floods. However, we do not expect to pay out on any claims. That is why WEFU can offer such competitive premiums.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 20 2011, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I wonder if the burglers actually got high?

Dumb Burglars

QUOTE
MIAMI — Burglars snorted the cremated remains of a man and two dogs in the mistaken belief that they had stolen illegal drugs, Florida sheriff's deputies said Wednesday.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 05:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Is it a rite to sight the right facebook site and write?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I disagree. The state of Thai politics and the King's health are sovereign risk issues that need to be considered when do investments and business in Thailand. However, money always talks and if enough influential people has enough vested interests in an outcome and sufficiently few influential people have their noses put out of place, then that outcome generally occurs.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 24 2010, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Just the BESBS players getting out I expect.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 5 2010, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

A class of medical students were being introduced for the first time to the cadavers that they will be dissecting throughout the year. The instructor then tells the students "There are two very important skills for a doctor to have". The instructor then shoves a finger up the backside of one of the cadavers and licks a finger. He then says "The first important skill is to develop is taste as there are many conditions that can be diagnosed using the sense of taste". He then commands the students to do exactly what he did. With much hesitation the students did and all were repulsed and almost physically ill afterwards.

After a while the instructor said "Taste is the first of the two very important skills for a doctor to have. The second important skill is observation. If you were observant you would have noticed that I put my index finger in the backside of the cadaver but I in fact licked my middle finger!!!".
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 31 2010, 12:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From a Brisbane Times email that I received today (link:Brisbane Times - Greg Hoffman - 30 October 2010) (The article then went on to discuss AWE and CVN as local oil plays.)
WITH all eyes on the gold price, opportunities are emerging elsewhere. Last week I made the case that oil might be a contrarian play because the long-term fundamentals are attractive.

The problem for local investors is that most of our large ''oil stocks'' such as Woodside and Santos are more about gas (Liquefied Natural Gas or LNG) than oil. With a raft of huge LNG projects scheduled to come on stream in the next decade, LNG prices may become unhooked from the oil price. That makes them a less attractive way to play the oil price.

Gaining exposure to pure oil stocks could involve investing in ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron, all being touted by a number of shrewd investors. But that requires a broking account with access to overseas markets and involves currency risk.

If you want pure oil exposure locally, you have to move up the risk curve, which is what we're about to explore, although the share prices of the two smaller stocks outlined below are more likely to rise or fall on the basis of their own actions rather than the general direction of the oil price. But they're interesting nevertheless.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 31 2010, 12:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

May be if they just left the coffin illegally parked, the council would come and take it away too.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 31 2010, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The following appeared in a www.brisbanetimes.com.au email (link: Brisbane Times - Greg Hoffman - 30 Oct 2010) that I received today. (The article also discussed AWE as an oil play and made the point that oil has a "golden glow" too when compared with gold.)
Carnarvon Petroleum is less than half AWE's size, making it less resilient to any setbacks but it does offer more pure oil exposure. Carnarvon operates in Thailand, where it already claims a handy 24.5 million barrels of oil in proven and probable (2P) reserves from onshore fields.

The company produces oil from difficult reservoir formations known as ''fractured volcanics''.

For many years, oil and gas companies ignored these reservoirs, partly because there were other prospective wells to drill but also because technology was not sufficiently developed to deal with their peculiarities. Fractured volcanics are partly to blame for Carnarvon's recent disappointing production (and resulting share price fall) but so is Carnarvon's recent focus on exploration.

The Thai interests are held through a joint venture with a local company but it has access to only two drill rigs.

These must be shared between the key activities of production, appraisal and exploration.

During the past two years, Carnarvon has drilled many more exploration and appraisal wells than it has production wells.

And since Carnarvon's pesky reservoirs require consistent drilling, if rigs are diverted to other activities production naturally falls. But it has not been abandoned, as the market seems to be anticipating, simply pushed back.

The reaction to several production downgrades appears excessive.

Exploration has in fact increased Carnarvon's contingent resources to a substantial 57 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), some of which appears to be easily converted into actual reserves.

Furthermore, the promising WBEXT1 discovery has achieved the highest flow rates of any onshore well in Thailand. Because the permit has not yet been granted a production licence by Thai authorities, the reserves are not yet accounted for.

With new discoveries like this one, Carnarvon could be producing at twice its current rate in fairly short order. But the share price almost totally discounts this possibility.

Even without new discoveries, our analysis indicates that Carnarvon is worth somewhere between 55¢ and 70¢ a share, meaning the company's existing production is available to investors at a discount to its intrinsic value. The upside is thrown in for free.

Greg Hoffman is the research director at The Intelligent Investor, intelligentinvestor.com.au.

  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 5 2010, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE
The collective noun for a group of clowns is ....


The might be "A Parliament".
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 4 2010, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Definately watch TV. You will want to make sure on the news that nobody saved them.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 3 2010, 09:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

What do you call an incompetent laywer?


"Your honour"!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 3 2010, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The parents have to prove idiot had a brain beforehand.

I suppose they have a case against the teacher and vicariously against the school if they can demonstrate negligence in lack of supervision of the students.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 29 2010, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

After a long journey to Earth, someone needed to be appointed to give the aliens a nice soothing ale before the exhausting rounds of meeting all the leaders.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 3 2010, 09:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Someone told me that he could always tell when he was with a ladyboy.........they were better looking and much friendlier.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 24 2010, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My broker has recommended that I hold for the moment and see if something like a $2.80 offer comes along.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 2 2010, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Chum,

1. There are holders of stock that will decide that the end of the financial year is an appropriate time to sell, realize a loss and move on to another stock because they don't have to wait so long to get some relief back on tax (either with a tax return if they traded poorly, or hopefully not having to pay so much tax on their overall profits).

2. Other holders may sell then immediately buy back the stock so as to gain the tax advantage of recognizing the loss but still holding shares in a company that hopefully has a bright future. I understand that the Australian Taxation Office may take a dim view of this.

The nett effect is that companies whose share price is down over the year may suffer a significant fall in value towards the end of the financial year and appear as nice bargains. Of course some of those companies could be a dogs and is just hurrying up to be a penny dreadfuls. The hope is that after 30 June, the selling pressure ceases and the companies go back to a more "realistic" value.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 15 2010, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The senators who ban drilling for petroleum on the US west coast will probably then be the first to complain about the evil Arabs refusing to supply America with oil at a reasonable price.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 2 2010, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

There's a hole in the budget, dear Kevin, dear Kevin,
There's a hole in the budget, dear Kevin, a hole.
Then fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, fix it.
With what shall I fix it, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
With what shall I fix it, dear Kevin, with what?
With taxes, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With taxes, dear Henry, dear Henry, taxes.
The taxes are too many, dear Kevin, dear Kevin,
The taxes are too many, dear Kevin, too many,
Then simplify them, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then simplify them, dear Henry, dear Henry, simplify them.
With what shall I simplify them, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
With what shall I simplify them, dear Kevin, with what?
With a review, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With a review, dear Henry, dear Henry, a review.
The review is too narrow, dear Kevin, dear Kevin,
The review is too narrow, dear Kevin, too narrow.
Then broaden it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then broaden it, dear Henry, dear Henry, broaden it.
With what shall I broaden it, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
With what shall I broaden it, dear Kevin, with what?
With submissions, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With submissions, dear Henry, dear Henry, submissions.
Who will submit, dear Kevin, dear Kevin,
Who will submit, dear Kevin, who.
Anyone, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Anyone, dear Henry, dear Henry, anyone.
What shall I do with the submissions, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
What shall I do with the submissions, dear Kevin, what?
Ignore them, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Ignore them, dear Henry, dear Henry, ignore them.
How can I ignore, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
How can I ignore, dear Kevin, How?
Make decisions, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Make decisions, dear Henry, dear Henry, decisions.
How can I make decisions, dear Kevin, dear Kevin?
How can I make decisions, dear Kevin, how?
Pay for advisers, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Pay for advisers, dear Henry, advisers.
There's a hole in my budget, dear Kevin, dear Kevin
There's a hole in my budget, dear Kevin, a hole.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 2 2010, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

deleted
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 17 2009, 11:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Only ASX announcement today was BUY's announcement at 2:10pm that the Beach operated Wakefield-1 well had oil shows in a number of intervals? However, there does not appear to be any corresponding buying spike on BUY's trades today. Nor for any of the other ASX listed partners for the well.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 11 2009, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Augustus on the HZN thread posted this:

"Obviously they save overall time with the rig by drilling M2a sands now and finishing off horizontal drilling in both M2A sands and Mangahewa sands at Manaia. (batch drilling of these two wells.) Better for the co in the end but a little disappointing we wont hear the good news on Manaia until they have completed M2A drilling. Whats the bet they take less than 27 days to drill M2A? They have an excellent rig and crew."

So it is for overall drilling efficiency.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 2 2009, 06:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

May be Della Bonkedher's wife already knew. It might explain some of her recent public attitude in restaurants and soccer matches.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 15 2009, 11:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Our maid asked for a pay increase.

My wife was very upset about this and decided to talk to her about the raise. She asked: 'Now Maria, why do you want a pay increase?'
Maria: 'Well, there are three reasons why I want an increase.'
The first is that I iron better than you.'
Wife: 'Who said you iron better than me?'
Maria: 'Your husband said so.'
Wife: 'Oh.'
Maria: 'The second reason is that I am a better cook than you.'
Wife: 'Nonsense, who said you were a better cook than me?'
Maria: 'Your husband did..'
Wife: 'Oh.'
Maria: 'My third reason is that I am a better lover than you..'
Wife: (really furious now): 'Did my husband say that as well?'
Maria: 'No... the gardener did.'
Wife: 'So how much do you want?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 6 2009, 10:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Actually, an engineer would say that the glass has been designed with a safety factor of 2.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 18 2009, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

There are tyre marks in front of the lawyer too from when the driver put the pedal to the floor.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 8 2009, 12:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Also there are the people at the various levels of enlightenment:
- Those that know they don't know it all;
- Those that don't know they don't know it all;
- Those that know it all but think they don't know; and
- Know alls.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 8 2009, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Prephas 55 plepoe out of 100 hvae dsyxeila !!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 6 2009, 11:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Wasn't there a similar story about Whitlam visiting Kings Cross?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 24 2009, 09:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

It's not RUDE, it's RUDD!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 28 2009, 09:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Was that a picture of her backside?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 27 2009, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

It is actually her car. She got it from the divorce settlement just after he made the last payment on the car loan. Her ex got to keep his golf clubs.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 27 2009, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Think how much snow there would have been had it not been for global warming!!! wink.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 27 2009, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Don't some of them have 10 fingers on one hand?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 24 2009, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My broker was expecting a considerably bigger spike that what it had initial got. May be everyone was trying to digest the news or they are just still reluctant to invest in the current market. Anyway the announcement was still very good news for SRL.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 16 2009, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

May be they were referring to the size of the budget deficit.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 9 2009, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

If HZN do not have enough cash reserves, and with the banks not all that willing to lend at the moment, HZN may well have to either touch the market for funds again and/or farm out a slice of some nice assets.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 7 2009, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Actually this is an example of a parasite infecting and finally completely overwhelming the host animal.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 7 2009, 09:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Weren't they charged with indecent behaviour NOT involving a sheep?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 18 2009, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I hold both HZN and CUE so I should be happy either way. That is until I looked at the value of my portfolio in all my shares. If it was a stock, I would say it would be a takeover target.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 28 2009, 08:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

It's an inverse relationship. If he was a young man the egg would have a very runny yoke. If he was elderly, the egg would be hard boiled.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 27 2009, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

A partial list of advantages and disadvantages of SMSF.

SMSF Advantages

Choose where the funds are invested.
Potential for better returns than managed funds.
Freedum to change you investment strategy as you see fit.
Keeps you actively interested in investment.
Potentially cheaper overall costs if sufficient funds are invested (see previous posts).

SMSF Disadvantages

It is a lot of work not just in identifying where to invest the money but also in complying with supplying information to the accountants.
You must ensure that you do not breach any regulations.
You might also find that relatives (spouses, kids, second cousins 3 times removed) come to you with suggestions/requests/demands of where you should be putting the money (normally to their advantage).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 26 2009, 10:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Link OilVoice re Oil set for Rebound 2nd half 2009 dated January 20, 2009

In the above link, OilVoice quote Goldman Sachs Group commodity analyst, Jeffrey Currie, as saying that he expects a "swift and violent rebound" in energy prices in the second half of 2009.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 14 2009, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: grayps on Tuesday 09/12/08 05:05pm

It is perfectly legal to buy paintings for a SMSF and store them in your own home as long as they are not being hung (i.e you are not gaining personal enjoyment from them. Therefore it should be perfectly legal any asset or commodity and hold for the SMSF so long as none of the beneficiaries of the SMSF are gaining a personal benefit from it.

So there should be no reason for you to not buy physical gold for your SMSF and store them. Just do not use them to buy anything personal nor use them as collateral for a loan etc.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 2 2008, 07:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

As reasonable explanation of the oil price behaviour over the as I have seen. Worth a read any way. Follow the link Explaining the oil price bubble — and bust
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 8 2008, 03:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My advisor at Euroz Securities has SRL as one of the stand outs for investment in the current market. Euroz says that concern over the refinancing of US$300 million of debt is weighing down SRL even though SRL has received of letter of offer for the finance.

This should all be settled by mid November. Then the market should be focused on forecast FY'09 net profit of $186 million (i.e. a PER of 2x), instead of trading at 47% of the underlying interest in Straits Asia Ltd and minus $100 million for the other SRL assets.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 27 2008, 10:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: TheFerret on Monday 27/10/08 09:22pm

A definition of inflation is a persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services.

That means either:
  • too much money (cash and credit) floating around the economy resulting in a bidding up the prices of limited supplies of goods and services. I don't see how this differs from the point you are making; or
  • a reduction in available goods and services resulting in the available money bidding up prices.
I think that the second reason is referred to stagflation. I would prefer recessflation because it feels like a recession but with inflationary prices.

Anyway, I remember this stuff being explained to me under the Keynesian umbrella.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 29 2008, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: dee27 on Monday 29/09/08 07:17am

Wikipedia has far more believable origins for the word. It also related a Vaudeville act by Roy Rene as Mo with a co-actor:
QUOTE
The Australian vaudeville comedian Roy Rene once had a comedy 'skit' where he would act with another person and would write the letter 'F' on a blackboard (on stage) and then ask his co-actor: 'What letter do you see' to which he would reply: 'K'. Mo would then say: 'Why is it that whenever I write F you see K?


................I suppose it was funny during his time............. sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 21 2008, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Credit from the financial institutions, in particular credit cards, is too easy to get. They are always wanting to increase credit limits, offer new cards with cheap honeymoon interest rate periods. It is all too temping and easy for people to get into large debt without seriously considering the consequences.

The problem use to be the other way round. Such as banks not lending to clearly credit worthy people just because they hadn't held a savings account with that particular bank for long enough (that was in the early 1980's).

Regarding credit cards, if getting one is too easy, try closing a credit card account. Everyone and their dog at the bank wants to talk to you about why you should keep the card going. They will waive that year's annual fees. They will offer you deals to consolidate debts. They might even reduce the interest rate on your current debt. It would be worth a try to say give me 7% instead of 19% for the life of the current debt.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 08:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

World's worst job!!!!!!!!!!


Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 10 2008, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Article in the Business Speculator discussing Oil's "artificial high".
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 8 2008, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (triage @ Monday 08/09/08 01:13pm)

I got excited at first with the announcement. I thought that COE was under a takeover offer until I read the announcement instead of the heading. Phoned my broker about it. His first impressions were the same as you triage. He didn't see much in the way of synergies. As he put it, normally with takeovers, 1+1 results in considerably more than 2 but his initial thoughts are that this is not the case here. It just seems to be a case of a merger just for the sake of getting bigger.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 1 2008, 10:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (dreamer @ Monday 01/09/08 09:47pm)

Buru Energy is the spinoff of Arc Energy's Canning Basin assets following the merger with AWE.

The following came from the Business Speculator.
QUOTE
Spin-off Buru Energy will consist of the portfolio of Canning basin exploration assets. Buru will have an approximate cash balance of $75 million on listing and AWE will retain a 15 per cent stake.

The ARC Board estimates the value of 0.425 Buru shares at $0.31 on the basis of its view of the value of Buru’s cash and exploration assets. ARC shareholders would also get one Buru option for every three Buru shares. The Buru options will have an exercise price of $0.94 and will be separately listed on the ASX. The options will be allotted to holders of Buru shares one month following listing of the Buru shares.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 1 2008, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: brianwh on Monday 01/09/08 02:09pm

My investment spread is:
  • about half the fund's assets in ASX listed companies;
  • about an eight in art works that are earning 8 to 9%pa being hung in business offices somewhere;
  • a sizeable speculative play on a company with significant patents;
  • about a quarter out on loans to businesses and individuals at market interest rates.
My accountants have expressed concerns that about the loans and the speculative nature of the companies I have invested the funds in. However, i am balancing that out with my work superannuation.
Loans are risky in the sense that they are to friends and if they couldn't pay, will I take all necessary measures to recover the funds (i.e. sue them). However, I have found that friends are far more likely to pay off the loans than others. On sizeable loans, I have got them to take out life insurance because I feel the main risk is them dying on me.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 11 2008, 10:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (arty @ Monday 11/08/08 08:22pm)

I would assume that when the tide turns at the Beach, it will come flooding back so fast people will need to be very quick to catch it. However, if can pick your buying opportunity from the charts then all power to you. I have a colleague at my work who claims that he only makes his money by following the technical charts and when he tried to be a fundamentalist, he lost heaps.

For me it is a case of, is Beach a bad company that is poorly managed with poor prospects? I think the opposite. So I will hold my current shares. The further questions for me are should I buy some more Beach to average down and get to a possibly overexposed position, and if so when? unsure.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 1 2008, 09:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

When a SMSF is set up, you need to document an investment strategy. My accountant pointed out that the investment strategy for my SMSF was not really adequate and sent me a sample Investment Strategy to consider as a basis. Below is the investment strategy that I have documented for the SMSF and lodged with the accountant. The basic structure was provide by the accountant and appears to be designed to give a lot flexibility in the Super Fund's investments.

_______________________________________________________________________________

INVESTMENT STRATEGY
for the <SMSF name> Super Fund


Members:
<member 1 full name>
<member 2 full name>
etc.

Trustee
<trustee company name> Pty. Ltd.
{as I have a company rather than a family trust as trustee for the SMSF}

Objectives
The trustee of <SMSF name> Super Fund ('the Trustee') has formulated the following investments objectives and strategy in accordance with section 52(2)(f) of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act, 1993 ('SIS Act')

The Trustee aims to:

- Provide superannuation benefit to the members and members' dependants to meet their retirement needs.
- Ensure that an appropriate mix of investments are held by the Fund to support these needs.

As a general investment objective the Trustee aims to achieve reasonable medium to long term growth whilst retaining a low level of capital volatility and risk. The Trustee does accept that short term volatility will occur within asset classes however the Trustee will seek sufficient diversification within the Fund's investment portfolio to minimise such risk and volatility.

Investment Strategy
As a means to achieving this objective, the Trustee has determined that the Fund's investments may include but not be limited to all or one of the following:

- Direct equities, stocks and derivatives and including the participation in dividend reinvestment programs and rights issues;
- Property trusts and associated products;
- Direct residential, industrial or commercial property investment;
- Bank and other financial institution securities including term deposits, debentures, secured and unsecured notes and bonds;
- Purchase of works of art with certified providence;
- Lending out of purchased art works for market rates of return;
- Issuing of secured and unsecured loans to individuals and partnerships;
- Any other investment which would not jeopardize the complying status of the Fund.

The investment strategy of the Fund comprises the following asset allocations.

Assets and Percentage Range (based on purchase price)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
At Call accounts in Australian banks and other Australian certified financial institutions (0% to 15%)

Term deposits in Australian banks and other Australian certified financial institutions (0% to 15%)

Australia Stock Exchange listed equities (24% to 70%)

Australian non-listed entities (0% to 30%)

Non-Australian listed equities (0% to 30%)

Works of Art with certifiable provenance (0% to 30%)

Loans to individuals and businesses at interest rates equal to or exceeding 8%pa (0% to 30%)

Property (direct or indirect) (0% to 60%)

Other investments including derivatives, futures, options, foreign currency (0% to 15%)


These ranges are purely indicative and the Trustee may vary the allocations within the indicated ranges at any time if satisfied that the current market conditions or the Fund's circumstances warrant such a change. If the Trustee wishes to invest outside these parameters, the investment strategy of the Fund must be revised in writing and all decisions minuted.

The Trustee may from time to time seek professional advise of an accountant, solicitor or financial planner in the formulation of the investment strategy.

In formulating this strategy the Trustee has taken into consideration relevant features of the investment types in accordance with the Fund's objectives and the superannuation laws.

The Trustee considered:

- The risk and return of investments;
- Diversification of investments;
- Liquidity and cash-flow requirements; and
- Ability of the Fund to discharge its liabilities.


Policies
The policies adopted by the Trustee in order to achieve these objectives are:
- Regular monitoring of the performance of the Fund's investments which would cover the rate of return income and capital growth, the risk profile of the overall investment mix and the expected cash flow requirements of the Fund.
- Balancing the Fund's investment portfolio die to changes in market conditions.

The Trustee aims to ensure investments of the Fund continue to comply with the overall strategy and so may review the strategy as required however it will be reviewed at least annually and the Trustee reserves the right to change the strategy at any time.



Signed by/on behalf of the Trsutee

<trustee company name> Pty. Ltd.



<signature>
___________________________

<trustee company director's full name>
Director, <trustee company name> Pty. Ltd.



Date:_______________________

________________________________________________________________________
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 21 2008, 06:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The following is article titled "Oil – where to from here?" from the Trading Tutors Weekly Review e-mail that I get.
QUOTE

Not since the oil crisis of the 70’s have we seen such a massive increase in the cost of energy. It was only a year ago that the price of oil was below US$70 per barrel, essentially half the current price. In fact in 2008 alone we have seen oil rise nearly 50% and carve out successive records along the way – in terms of dollar amounts and even inflation adjusted amounts!

There have been a raft of factors at play, but perhaps the most dominant has been the decline of the US dollar. The reason for this is that oil is priced in US dollars, so when the purchasing power of the greenback diminishes, it becomes cheaper for foreign investors to purchase oil. In essence, with all other factors remaining constant, a rise in the price of oil is necessary to off-set the reduced value of the greenback.

Perhaps the longer term influence on oil price is resultant from the interplay of supply and demand. Put simply, the global economy is demanding more of it, while at the same time our reserves are diminishing. It’s an irrefutable fact that there is only a finite amount of oil on our planet, and given that it takes millions of years to form, we cannot expect new oil to be formed any time soon. While a higher price makes previously less desirable, or more difficult, oil more economical, the fact is we are using up our supply much faster than we are able to produce more. Previously oil rich areas such as Texas, Mexico and some parts of Russia have reached and arguably passed “peak oil”.

This doesn’t mean the end is nigh. Our best estimates are that we still have at least 50 years worth of oil left. But because the remaining oil is in difficult to reach spots, or politically unstable regions, we may just have to accept paying more for this precious commodity. Furthermore, traders have been quite nervous over supply issues because of geopolitical tensions and industrial disputes. The most notable examples of this include the ongoing political strife in oil rich Nigeria, and the increasing tension in the Middle East. Political posturing between Iran and the west is certainly not helping to soothe trader’s fears!

The other side of the demand/supply equation is largely explained by the rise of the developing nations. The most important of these are the “BRIC” nations”: Brazil, Russia, India and China. As their economies grow they are demanding more and more oil, and this is adding to the already high demand from the developed nations. Again, this doesn’t mean we are about to run out, but its simple economics that when demand increases, and supply falls (or even is perceived to fall) price inexorably rises.

Another factor at play in recent times has been the large increase in speculative trading on oil contracts. In the past, the majority of transactions in the oil market were between suppliers and those happy to accept delivery of a contract. More recently however, we have seen a very large increase in market participants who are looking to simply profit from the volatility in price. While this in itself can seem like harmless speculation, it can have a big influence on price when large institutions and fund managers start pouring billions of dollars into the market. In fact there have recently been calls for tighter regulation of the markets which would seek to limit the effects this can have.

So the real question is – where to from here? Forecasting commodity prices is tricky at the best of times, and given the seemingly opaque nature of many of the underlying variables involved, it’s probably a near impossible task. But my guess is that we could see oil retreat within the medium term. My rationale is this. Firstly, the US dollar has probably bottomed, or is at least close to the bottom. Interest rate differentials between the major countries are likely to remain mostly steady, as monetary policy in the US starts to move in line with that of Europe and Asia. Also, the economic slowdown in the US has already largely been factored into exchange rates.

Secondly, while demand is increasing from the developing nations, it is probably going to ease somewhat elsewhere as cooling global economies (and the higher price of oil) temper the West’s appetite for oil. On an aggregate basis, demand is almost certainly still likely to rise – but not at a rate that fundamentally justifies a further significant rise in price. On the supply side, while it cannot be argued that we are running out, we still have plenty left. And barring any major conflict or natural disaster, the fundamentals cannot justify a continuation in the current rate of appreciation.

In the author’s humble opinion, it’s unlikely that oil will ever again drop below US$100 / barrel. But at the same time, it will be difficult for it to surpass US$200 / barrel within the next few years, and any rise between current levels and that amount is likely to be a much more steady one than what we’ve seen over the past 12 months. Of course no one really knows for sure, and only time will tell.

Another question that deserves attention is, “what will this mean for the stock market”? And that’s really a whole other kettle of fish, so we will explore that in the next edition.

Until then, happy investing.

Andrew Page
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 12 2008, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Forget that... The picture wont post
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 10 2008, 07:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

At a quick look, I could not find a topic discussing alternative energy. So it's about time there was one.

The information below is from a Boeing newsletter regarding test flights by Boeing with their fuel cell demonstrator airplane. I wonder how scaleable it is to larger aircraft.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Fuel_Cell_Demonstrator_Airplane.pdf ( 150.5K ) Number of downloads: 263

 
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 8 2008, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: marleon on Friday 06/06/08 09:59pm

marleon,

Every since my wife made me buy an old big fat TV, I have started losing weight.

However, it might relate to having to move the thing everywhere because the missus can never decided to have anything in the same spot for more than a few days at a time.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 6 2008, 08:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Evolution of Man vs. TV


Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 14 2008, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: chesterdash on Monday 12/05/08 08:46pm

I want know how a Catholic priest is suppose to have a son. Perhaps from the days before he was a priest!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 9 2008, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

This article on ShareCafe sourced from FN ARENA NEWS - 09/05/2008, considers a number of the arguments for rising or falling oil prices in the future including that technical chartists would see oil as a buy based on a graph of the oil price. Is Oil Bubbling?

It includes an amusing comment of "Could George Bush be a prick?". It is actually referring to if George Bush could prick the oil price bubble by his pleading to Saudi Arabia to increase production.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 7 2008, 07:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Oil may hit US$200 within 2 years says this article:

Yahoo Business Oil Price Prediction
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 19 2008, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Cha on Thursday 17/04/08 10:06pm

Cha,

No doubt there are also heaps of switches and instrumentation above the pilot and copilots heads that have not been shown.

I wonder how long it takes to train pilots to use the joysticks instead of the old style searing columns on older style aircraft? Probably not long because the new pilots would be well trained on Nintendos etc. with the flight simulator games. And they use to say that you would never amount to anything if you just played computer games all day.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 5 2008, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Monteverdi on Tuesday 05/02/08 08:34pm

I agree with Danville that sometimes management really are dumb. My guess is that:

1. they finally discovered the extent of the unauthorised trades and realised that this exposed the bank to a hugh degree,

2. paniced and instructed their senior trader to, as of highest priority, unwind as of the exposer as he could before outsiders found out.

3. forgot to limit the senior trader as to how much loss to bare on the trades,

4. the trader then unwound the trades as fast as he could with not regard to cost.

thumbdown.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 10:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: reynard on Thursday 31/01/08 09:07am

According to IncredibleCharts, DIO share price peaked at $2.58 on 16 Oct 2007, bottomed at $1.21 on 22 Jan 2008, and has risen to close at $1.70 on 30 Jan 2008 with a peak of $1.76 during the day. The closing price on 23 Jan 2008 was $1.34.

So it looks very much like DIO was the stock that Fat Prophets was refering to.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In response to a question to Otto Energy about the percentage take from Galoc by the Philippine government, I got the following response by Otto Energy director, Dr. Jaap Poll.

QUOTE
In response to your question regarding the Filipino Government take, we offer the following response. This is not a clear cut response as there are various variables at play.

The government takes 63% of Total Profit oil and ~30% of the Contractor Profit oil in taxes (changes from 35% to 30% on Jan 09).    Total Profit Oil can vary between 8 and 30% of Gross Revenues depending on the oil price and ‘Reserves’. 

In terms of total Government take as a proportion of Gross Revenues, this can vary between 3 and 25%, depending on the oil price and Reserves case.

Regarding cost recovery, assuming the ‘expectation’ economic Reserves case of 10 MMstb and an oil price at $60/stb, the project ‘recovers’ all the pre production costs ($168 Million) within the first 6 months. It follows that at the current assumed Galoc oil price of around $80/stb the project is even more robust.

  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 21 2007, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 20/12/07 09:39pm

wolverine,

Do you think that FCL will want to take 100% ownership of AMM then may be go for IIN.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 19 2007, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz Securities rate SXE as a BUY and have an updated price target for SXE of $2.02 per share.

Euroz believe that the finalised contracts, particularly for RIO at the Dampier Port Upgrade, are supportive of a strong first half of 2008. Medium term contract wins possibilities include:
- Cape Lambert for Rio;
- Boddington for Newmont; and
- Newman Hub expansion for BHP.

Euroz say that these projects on there own (and there are many other possibilities) support a strong 2009 (the majority of our 2009 forecasts) and Euroz believe that SXE is well placed to win further work. Euroz view the project profile for 2009 as very encouraging and there say that there is significant opportunity for SXE to beat 2009 forecasts.

SXE trades at 16.5x normalised forecast 2008 EPS of 10.3c and 13.9x forecast 2009 EPS of 12.3c. Euroz say that trading metrics are "fair overall, for a strong growth, non capital intensive electrical engineer exposed to the current resources spend".

Euroz commented that "SXE continues to operate in a strong macro environment" and, "is very likely to hit or exceed prospectus 2008 numbers, and be on strong run rate heading into fiscal 2009".
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 6 2007, 06:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Depends on how you value each parcel of shares. If you regard each of your shares as equal with each other, then your formula is fine. However, that might mean that if you say sell all of your shares at a price above the price the cheapest two share parcels but below the price of the most expensive, you are likely to be in profit overall but you would have been better not to have bought the most expensive share parcel.

You might for example consider that that the first two share parcels are your long term holdings and the third share parcel is for trading, in that case you would have two prices for your consideration, the average price of the first two parcels (ie your long termers) and the price of the third parcel (ie your short term stock) which you would not like to sell below that price.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 6 2007, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My advisor from my broker is expecting that SXE should push $2.00 share price.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 3 2007, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: chesterdash on Monday 03/12/07 05:31am

To "spud" a well is actually refering to commencing drilling operations. Apparently, according to "www.thefreedictionary.com" "spud" is sourced from the middle English "spudde" which was a "short knife".

A nice glossary of petroleum terms is "www.everythingoilandgas.com/glossary" if you want to get the definitions of "spudding", "pigs" and all sorts of oiler stuff.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 21 2007, 02:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

RobAde,

I think your answer depends on what you are assessing.

For taxation purposes, I believe that when you sell shares, they come from the earliest bought shares (ie first in, first out). Therefore as far as the ATO is concerned, the 5,000 shares sold on Wednesday come out of the 10,000 you bought on the Monday. In that case the profit on the sale is 5,000 x ($1.20 - $1.00) which is $1,000. The cost of the remaining shares would be:
[5,000 x $1.00] + [7,500 x $1.10] which is $13,250.

However, at a personal level you might consider things differently. You might consider the 10,000 shares bought on Monday as long term and the shares you bought on Tuesday as short term traders and so any sales are taken from them. In that case the profit from the sale is 5,000 x ($1.20 - $1.10) which is $500. The cost of the remaining shares would be:
[10,000 x $1.00] + [2,500 x $1.10] which is $12,750.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 31 2007, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz latest research report based on the AWE September Quarterly Report has a BUY rating with $4.00 per share price target. Valuation increased from $2.84 per share to $3.21 per share

AWE is fully exposed to high oil prices and all 4 projects are performing well. Euroz say that a strong forecast earnings growth and a successful history of exploration and acquisitions provides a good level of confidence in AWE's future growth.

Euroz expect further programs following the disappointing 4 well exploration program in offshore New Zealand. Euroz point out that patience is required as illustrated by AWE's recent Perth basin experience (ie 3 successful wells with 2 potential commercial fields that followed a number of dry wells over the past few years).

Two offshore Indonesian exploration wells could add 20c per share to 30c per share that is likely not recognised in the current share price. Further gas contracts and exploration success in offshore Otway Basin also could improve the share price.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 30 2007, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: balance on Monday 29/10/07 12:20pm

Queried my advisor at Euroz and he did not see any reason to be selling. So I am wondering how much of the share price weekness can be attributed to momemtum traders and short term loss of sentiment.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 30 2007, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: datum on Monday 29/10/07 06:16pm

Unusual isn't for there to be back-to-back trading halts applied? So I think that there must be substantial negotiations going on probably with New Hope but it would be nice if there was another bidder being enticed. May be New Hope are prepared to make a cash component with their offer.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 25 2007, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

If the degraded oil (tar balls) reported in todays ASX announcement being as washing up on the Taranaki coastline is related to the AWE drilling, then hopefully it can be rectified quickly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

http://tmi-comic.com/istrip_files/strips/20050603.jpg
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 6 2007, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (Brierley @ Thursday 06/09/07 11:12am)

Also in the COE's ASX release 06-09-07 is the planned drilling schedule through to the end of the year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (N.M.Mer. @ Wednesday 05/09/07 02:11pm)

Strachen in his Stock Analysis publication says that previous share price retreats for Nexus have proven to be good buying opportunities. He also says that Nexus has so much going on that this result will not derail the company.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 24 2007, 07:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz have upgraded JBM from HOLD to BUY with a price target of $19.00. The revised price target is based on a long term sustainable earnings of $1.45/sh from 30ktpa production rate using long run nickel price of $8/lb and PER of 13x (JBM historical).

Jubilee has updated its forward production guidance, reflecting a downgrade to FY’08 from 13kt Ni to 12kt Ni. However from FY’09 onwards the outlook is upgraded relative to the prior forecasts, eg FY’09 was 16.3kt now 17.0kt Ni, FY’10 was 18kt now 22kt, FY’11 and beyond is now ~30ktpa from 20ktpa previously.

Sinclair (1.2mt grading 2.77% Ni for 34kt Ni cont) is likely to be developed as a standalone operation at a base case of 6ktpa Ni in conc. (approx half the historical Cosmos prod’n rate).

JBM's big lift in production outlook is probably due to the success at AM5 which is appearing to be a very significant nickel sulphide discovery.

Euroz state that a sustained JBM share price downside should only happen in the unlikely event of sustained nickel price weakness combined with a failure of JBM's exploration to generate the 50kt Ni target on AM5 and a failure to find any further new discoveries or resource extensions at known deposits.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 23 2007, 11:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (crystal @ Thursday 23/08/07 10:36pm)

Arrow's release dated 23 August stated that the SPP issue price will be the lower of:
  • $2.35; or
  • the price calculated as the Placement discount (of approximately 4.9%) applied to the Volume Weighted Average Price for a period of 10 ASX trading days subsequent to the close of the SPP, commencing on or about 5 September 2007.
Note that the SPP is underwritten to the extent of $25 million.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 17 2007, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: WannaGetRish on Friday 17/08/07 06:32pm

I expect nothing happens other than all applications subsequent to the first receive application will just be refused if it is found out.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: WannaGetRish on Tuesday 07/08/07 08:16pm

It is a marginal thing to take up the SPP or buy on the market, but after considering the brokerage with buying on-market through my full-service broker, I will be proceeding with taking up the SPP offer.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 2 2007, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: hellyeah on Thursday 02/08/07 07:08pm

Market is probably waiting until production reports or a quarterly indicates that the BMG problems have been definately solved. However, if you have the money and no better use for it, why not buy Beach at these low levels.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 30 2007, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

slick7,

I just confirmed with MEO that the renewed SPP offers were posted today (Monday 30 July). So those affected should receive them over the next few days allowing for the normal Australia Post delays.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 18 2007, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

No doubt there will soon be a second bout of taking profits and consequent buying opportunity when those who originally missed out on their entitlement of SPP shares, but now will receive them, sell those for the instant profit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 9 2007, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: apache123 on Monday 09/07/07 08:31am

May be one of the company's directors after all this time finally managed to get his science degree majoring in physics, or at least came to understand thermodynamics.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 9 2007, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (0007 @ Monday 09/07/07 10:16am)

0007,

Hindalco Industries Limited currently have 159,820,001 of the shares of that they hold of ABY placed in escrow. That means that those shares are not available to be traded. The escrow condition expires and the shares can be released from escrow on 29 June 2007.

What this means is after the 29 June 2007, there will be an additional mass of 159,820,001 shares that may or may not be traded. That volume of shares represents 51% of ABY. If Hindalco Industries decided to sell a significant portion of those shares, ABY's share price might be expected to fall. Then again, Hindalco might not be interested in selling or they might find asufficiently big buyer to sell to outside of the sharemarket, or interest in ABY might be such that it could absorb any volume of ABY shares that Hindalco might wish to sell.

I presume that ABY was formed as a spin off out of Hindalco to be a self contained mining entity and attract investors into the company who are specifically only interested in ABY's mining activities.

Personally, I don't think that Hindalco will be selling significantly in the near future. If those resource assets that ABY was created for to manage was of interest to Hindalco before ABY existed, then they are at least as valuable now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 6 2007, 11:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Smartman_plc on Friday 06/07/07 10:58pm


Refering to the ASX announcement for IFE and TRF dated 15 June 2007:

1. The IPO closed 2 weeks early oversubscribed with 40,00,003 shares on issue and with Trafford resources retaining 20,000,003 shares in IFE.

2. IronClad will acquire from Trafford a 50% interest in the Iron rights of the Wilcherry Hill tenements 30km North of Kimba in South Australia. IronClad's share will rise to 80% by the expenditure of $10million.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 6 2007, 10:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (Luke124 @ Thursday 05/07/07 06:39pm)

I scored 5000 of them via my broker's allocation.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 6 2007, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Sinner on Friday 06/07/07 02:53pm

Good one Sinner. I have pointed out your post to my broker and asked for their response. I would be amazed if ASIC did not support that application if they believe in fair trading. Not to support that application would be a clear invitation for similar situations to happen with any company's future SPP.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 6 2007, 08:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (nizar @ Thursday 05/07/07 05:58pm)

I imagine that:

1. many share holders who just bought for the SSPP entitlement that selling out disappointed and disillusioned; and

2. a number of those share holders who did qualify for the SSPP entitlement are taking profits.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 25 2007, 08:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: TheFalcon on Monday 25/06/07 11:45am

Yes I don't know why Beach did not get flagged for that announcement as well. As I understand it Beach has 75% of PEL92 and COE has 25%. Since the announcement was price sensitive for COE it should also have at least score a mention for BPT. The announcement made no mention of Beach's involvement, so I guess the clerk that posted it did not get cued to also flag it for BPT.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 24 2007, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The following was posted on HC

QUOTE
The West Australian June 23rd 2007
Back off, Tap Oil tells Poynton predators

Alinta Chairman John Poynton, head of business strategy Chris Indermaur and chief fianacial officer Stephen Pearce had built a stake of just under 5 per cent in Tap in recent weeks


It was said on HC says that TAP's management don't have a high regard for Poynton and his team. I guess that means that there will be no "friendly" takeover.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jun 17 2007, 07:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Mission X on Saturday 16/06/07 10:07pm

I can't believe that someone can sing like that without have been trained. So, I expect that he must have had some sort opera singing instruction. I suppose also, professional opera critics might have found some fault in his voice but it sounded terrific to my untrained ear and it certainly moved the judges and the audience.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 26 2007, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: healyn on Friday 25/05/07 05:31pm

Now its the other way round. If the man was to chatter, chatter chatter, until he irritates the woman, he is had up for verbal abuse and is lucky to escape life in jail. sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 12 2007, 06:40 PM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: Cha on Saturday 12/05/07 05:09pm

Cha,

You would have either given it a good burial in a doggy hole or you might have choked on the bones. If one shouldn't feed dogs chicken bones, then fairy bones would be more dangerous. Also, what would you do with a magical wand stuck in your throat. Everytime that you cough, you would cast a spell!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 11 2007, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz Securities now have a $3.04 per share valuation and share price target on SPH. Their previous valuation was $2.35 per share. Euroz expect the valuation to increase as new value goes into the resources inventory and as a deal on equity partnership is concluded.

Nominal values have been set for the new deposits (Bou Derga, Tintekrate, Lebtheinia and deposits on EL172). Euroz expect to increase those valuations after exploration and testing reduces the risk.

Euroz say that they are convinced that Guelb el Aouj is one of the highest quality undeveloped magnetite iron ore projects in the work today and have little doubt that Sphere and SNIM will conclude a deal with the Arab partners.

Euroz indicate that from the relative value demonstrated by the MMX/Anglo deal, Sphere should offer some corporate appeal.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 8 2007, 07:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (balance @ Tuesday 08/05/07 06:40pm)

I think that APA will come in again at a higher bid. The only reason that they did not up the price was that they had declared the bid offer final very early on to try an entice early acceptances.

The issue is when will they make their new offer. I am not aware of any provisions that prevent them putting on a new takeover offer immediately if they so wish.

Now I wonder if the board will try to increase QANTAS' debt gearing for higher growth and so make themselves less attractive to a takeover?
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 6 2007, 06:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Lamare on Sunday 06/05/07 03:30pm

OGW reports Beach's raise from $1.24 to $1.33 was coincident with a broker presentation at Macquarie Bank with most of the rise occurring on Friday with volume of 11,943,458 shares traded.

What's a lot of trading!!

OGW also mentioned Beach having 15% of Ramelius Resources that reported a massive gold strike on Friday at Wattle Dam.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 30 2007, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz Securities have a NPV valuation of ABY at $2.62 per share at around 4x PER but a price target of $4.00 per share based on 7x forecast PER. The price opportunity is based on ABY's inability to meet its IPO prospectus production and financial forecasts. While this has disappointed the market, Euroz are obviously impressed by ABY's business model.

FY'07 Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $1.9 million was slightly ahead of guidance.

Euroz says that the recent strength copper price has not been factored into the share price and that downside risk to ABY is small compared to the upside risk.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 09:47 PM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: regn on Tuesday 24/04/07 10:02am

Now the question is, how much of that $4,935 will they be refunding to your credit card and when?
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 05:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

A search on Google indicated that he died April 4 or April 13 in 1996 and that he was either 83 or 93!!!!

Perhaps it took 10 years to get those damn legs in.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 15 2007, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (jaded @ Sunday 15/04/07 07:48am)

For those interested, a Google search lead me to the following link regarding the rumour refered to by jaded.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../cxmktrep14.xml

The part of the article says:

QUOTE
In the Aim-market, there was very heavy trading in Uranium Resources, up 1.5 to 6.87p. More than 25m shares changed hands, compared with an average daily volume of less than 1m.

The rumour going around was that Australia's Western Metals may be mulling a bid for the company, which has deposits in Southern Africa and Australia.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 10:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Sold out this morning at a profit thanks to Andrew Forrest. However, I should have held for a further 10c gain. As my broker said "this is a good deal for NIA but he (Forest) has effectively stolen it (Niagara) with his option package".
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 6 2007, 06:28 PM


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Posts: 404

Peter Strachan sent out a sample of his StockAnalysis publication with his analysis on Arc dated February 12, 2007 (article originally published Feb. 9). He has Arc as a buy below $1.60 with a risk adjusted valuation of $1.67 per share. He has 77c for Arc's producing assets, 37c for Arc's equity in Adelphi plus net cash, and 61c per share risk adjusted exploration value (less 14c per share for corporate costs and options).

Strachan points out that over the next 3 months, Arc will test three on-shore prospects which have signicant value adding potential (eg 10mmbbls at Eutaxia would add 50c per share to Arc's valuation). His upside potential estimation is well over $1 per share from the Canning programme, over $1 per share for success for the two permits in Yemen. Arq also has over $40 million sitting in the bank.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 1 2007, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Oil production is not to plan because there is soo much gas that gas separators can not handle it at full production. In the long term this is actually very good news but in the medium (~2 year) this is depressing the share price.

My broker had made the following comments in a quick report to investors about Basker Manta:

- Basker Manta oil production below expectations – gas production higher but no impact to reserves

- Basker Manta cash flows reduced in the near term, extended in the long term

- Average Basker Manta oil production forecast decreased to 17.5 kbopd (from 20 kbopd) for the next 2 years

- Valuation has increased by 5 cps as a result of a forecast increased oil production from BMG from mid CY’09

- CY’07 earnings forecast has been reduced by 25% as a result – now $73 million. CY’08 earnings reduced by 20% - now $37 million. CY’09 and ’10 earnings forecasts up by 13% and 31 % respectively

- FEED commenced for the BMG gas/condensate project

Despite disappointing production results from the Basker Manta oil project, AZA remains undervalued and cheap - valuation is $1.80/sh and PER at the current price is 6.3x for CY’07.

The BMG project is set to provide growth in oil and gas production from 2009 with a larger FPSO.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 26 2007, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (pukin @ Wednesday 20/12/06 12:13am)

I found the following cautionary article on using ethanol in as a fuel substitute. It is dated December 2002.

Beware the ethanol hangover

It claims that fuel economy on E10 blend is reduced by 2.8% to 5%. That means that E10 blended fuel will need to be of the order of 5c cheaper than unleaded petrol before people will consider using it. Add in the reasonable fears of damage to the engine and we probably need a 10c discount before people it becomes economically wise to use E10 blend fuel.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 22 2007, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Smartman_plc on Sunday 21/01/07 05:55am

After having a read through the sites I referenced in my previous post, it seems to me that most significant disadvantage of using Thorium is that it produces Radon gas. Although Radon only has a half life of 3.8 days, being a gas it would be considerably more difficult to handle and store than a solid waste.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 21 2007, 06:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

For the interested reader, I found more discussion on Thorium as a nuclear fuel by doing a Google search using the keyword "Thorium".

I suggest reading UIC Briefing Paper #67.

Also, there is The Complete Thorium Website.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 28 2006, 07:19 AM


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Posts: 404

QUOTE (Oceanbeach @ Thursday 28/12/06 02:47am)

I wonder if Anzon Energy will soon go for 100% ownership of Anzon Australia? I presume that they can't just keep on incrementally buying shares in AZA until they get 100%. What are the ASX rules on a company having greater than 50% ownership of another company that will force them to make a formal takeover offer instead of continually buying shares on the market?
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 22 2006, 09:36 PM


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Posts: 404

I presume that the exercise price for the Call option of 51c to only 12 February 2007 indicates that both Beach and Drillsearch expect that things will happen for GOG very soon.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 22 2006, 09:27 PM


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Posts: 404

Today's announcement about inadvertantly recovering extremely high grade Zinc, Lead and Silver mineralisation from a recent hole clearing operation might wake up investors a bit. A dill core recovered from drill hole WED13 has between:
  • 15.06% and 36.38% Zinc
  • 2.82% and 14.36% Lead
  • 55g/t and 538g/t Silver
Announement says that this coincides with a well defined fault structure and may be the cause for surface TEM anomalies identified early 2006. A full DHTEM is being planned with follow-up drill holes.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 9 2006, 07:40 AM


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Posts: 404

QUOTE (OILMAN1 @ Saturday 09/12/06 01:06am)

Remember that BPT is not just the BMG project whereas at the moment AZA is. If there are any early engineering problems with BMG, it is likely to hurt AZA considerably more than BPT. It was suggested to me that it would quite remarkable for there not to be significant production "teething" problems. So investors might have jumped ship from AZA to BPT as an insurance policy. I therefore suggest that the relationship between AZA and BPT share prices are somewhat loosely coupled.

If it becomes evident that there are few BMG production problems, then I would expect the AZA share price to be outperforming that of BPT.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 2 2006, 11:47 AM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: fatsoh on Saturday 02/12/06 09:59am

fatsoh,

I don't follow your logic regarding your comment "only 1 draw in adelaide from last 15 tests more than likely boils down to the strength of the aussie team of late - win, lose or draw, they generally go for it". It is usually only one side plays for a draw. If the Australian is well behind, they would be likely to be playing for the draw, if the opposition is well behind, they would be the ones playing for the draw.

The curator prepares Adelaide oval to be a fair contest between bat and ball and with expectation that the test will go well into the fifth day. He expects there to be some life in the wicket in the first session for the fast bowlers, very good batting conditions for the next several days and finally to favour the spin bowlers on the last day. Unless there has been significant lost play due to bad weather, good teams teams should be able to win at Adelaide oval rather than the condition of the wicket determining the result.

Also, I think that people underrate the significance of a draw. When one side playing to save the match by not going for their shots, you can bet that there will be a very attacking field to apply a load of pressure on the batsman. The last session on the final day with the batting side having a few wickets remaining is very interesting even if a draw is the most likely result.

I presume that the type of draw that disappoints you fatsoh is where it is so obvious early on in the final day that the captains agree to stop play. How often has that occurred at Adelaide oval, and is that any worse than when a test match only lasts 3 days?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 27 2006, 07:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (athex @ Monday 27/11/06 05:33am)

Yes Murali does have a much better average than Warne, but he does play at most of his matches on the spin friendly wickets of the subcontinent that that good spin from day one. Even, when playing in Australia, Warne does not get that luxury except maybe in Sydney (or as Sydney use to be). Australian wickets are generaly all different and there is a tendancy to try and have an even contest with the wicket favouring fast bowler early on, batsmen in the middle of the test and spinners in the last day or so.

It is very difficult to say that one bowler is better than another because they play in such different conditions and different side rely on the bowlers to different degrees. Sri Lanka may be said to need Murali to take wickets more than Australia needs Warne to. Equally, it may also be said that Warne get great benefit from having McGrath bowling tightly at the other end whereas Murali might not get an equivalent benefit from his fellow bowlers.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 23 2006, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz Securities valuation for SRL is $4.58/share.

Euroz say:
QUOTE
Straits continues to demonstrate an ability to make sound acquisitions that add value for shareholders. In recent years Straits has acquired Mt Muro, Hillgrove, MIM/Xstrata exploration portfolio (including Yandan and Salt Ck) and the minority interests in Sebuku. Each of these either have or are part way to realising signifi cant value for shareholders.

Straits now has six different earnings streams, providing more risk diversifi cation than any other similarly capitalised resources company.

Straits continues to represent excellent value and offers signifi cant EPS growth.


Euroz also commented that:
QUOTE
The high component of cash in the valuation significantly reduces risk and that upside to forecasts may come from a deal with Sempra over the Tritton offtake. Tritton has production growth potential, especially since the exploration success on Murrawombie since SRL completed the takeover of Tritton last year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 23 2006, 07:37 AM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: busylion on Wednesday 22/11/06 09:47pm

Yes, unfortunately I am still in OMH. I have 20,000 shares bought at over a dollar. My broker kept saying that OMH are still a good thing as the share price was gradually falling, and he was probably correct with the valuations from the information that the OMH had disclosed. This dramatic downgrade of Bootu Creek has taken everyone by surprise (except OMH management and directors, I presume). I think questions need to be put to the directors regarding their continuous reporting obligations to the ASX.

I was shown a valuation for OMH of about 25cps using zero value for Bootu Creek and various other assumptions. So, yes it does appear that OMH has been somewhat oversold.

The report mentions that the Manganese price is improving, but the Australian dollar has also been rising. The report says that Manganese production is running at 80% of expection. Also, it says that OMH have for now chosen to mine the higher grade material so as to reduce the operating cost per unit. The parent company are evidently still committed to keep funding Bootu Creek.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 1 2006, 05:40 PM


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Posts: 404

I understand that Peter Strachen in his 18 October StockAnalysis report had Exco Resources going from 24c to a targe price of 74c. Although I can't recall over what time frame Strachen was considering.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 1 2006, 04:59 PM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: blowout preventer on Wednesday 01/11/06 01:07am

BP,

The following is an extract out of a summary report on NOD that was sent to me:

QUOTE
Nomad are a strong chance to beat prospectus forecasts and are modelling 12c EPS (proforma) for 2007 versus prospectus (proforma) EPS of 11.6c. Our short term price target is 10x proforma forecast 2007 EPS or $1.20, while based on longer term prospects, we set a 12 month price target of $1.65 (11x 2008 EPS).


I had spoken to my broker asking what he thought about stagging NOD and was advised to HOLD for the longer term. I get the impression that he thinks that the $1.65 twelve month target is somewhat conservative.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 31 2006, 08:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Very nice performance by Nomad today with a closing price $1.40 vs its issue price of $1.00.

Nomad announced today that it was awarded a substantial contract by Fortescue Metals Group for construction of a 504 person accommodation village with facilities plus an additional installation package of 200 rental accommodation rooms. Contract value around $32.5million starting early November and completion in May 2007.

Also, McGrath Homess (which NOD will acquire on 1 Dec 2006) was awarded a $16.2million contract to supply and deliver 42 permanent housing dwellings in Newman, WA starting in December and expected completion in November 2007.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 26 2006, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Article on page 10 of today's (26/10/06) Financial Review titled "Bacterial action may prove to be gold's midas bug". It argues that Microbiology may play an important part in gold discoveries. Apparently, certain types of bacteria can survive in the presence pf dissolved gold (which is highly toxic to other micro-organisms) and actively precipitate gold out of the solution. This implies that gold nuggets can be formed by the bacteria. Indeed reserach has found certain bateria that appear to preferentially live on grains of gold.

The significance of the research is in both hunting for gold (ie look for the presence of the particular types of bateria in the soil environment) and in bioprocessing of gold ores. However, it appears that research in the area is still in its infancy.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 18 2006, 11:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (sabretoothed @ Wednesday 18/10/06 08:11pm)

Sabretoothed,

I have been shown that particular StockAnalysis report, and indeed a $3.00 price target is what Stratchan wrote in his Best Bets section.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 24 2006, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Euroz Securities have a recent report with a speculative buy rating on SLX with what Euroz say is a very conservative valuation of $6.85 and is based only on Silex's Uranium enrichment activities. SLX share price at the time of the report was $3.80. Euroz say that Silex is well set to benefit from the resurgent Uranium story.

Euroz say:
  • There are several Uranium "event" on the horizon and make particular reference to the Silex-GE agreement.
  • Solar opportunities are closer than first thought with Translucent, announcing a break-through in solar energy materials that has the potential to double efficiency and half the cost of current technology. The global solar materials market is estimated to be US$11bn at present, but is expected to rise to US$50bn in the next ten years.
  • Thermoelectric possibilities developing when SLX announced in July 2006 that it had fi led a patent for a novel material to develop large scale application of thermoelectric energy production. (Thermoelectric energy production is a well known effect where heat is converted directly into electricity without any intermediate fl uid (steam/gas) or moving parts (turbines/generators). SLX believes it has developed a material with the potential to provide a signifi cant breakthrough. Commercialisation will take the same path as Solar but with a one year time lag.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 24 2006, 03:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: robertjb on Sunday 24/09/06 09:39am

Rob,

Over the last 10 years, I have lived in Adelaide, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney and now Brisbane.

I rate the public transport in the respective cities as follows:
- Adelaide: Buses are adequate; trains good if you happen to live near a train line
- Melbourne: The combined bus, train and tram network is excellent.
- Perth: Trains and Buses appear to be adequate for when I took them,
- Sydney: The trains and buses are good.
- Brisbane: I have only just moved to Brisbane but I am given to understand that the combined bus and train network is very good.

So Rob, it appears to me that the public transportation in the Australian capital cities that I have lived are at least adequate. If you are questioning viability of the public transport in that they generally lose money, then we get into the argument about of whether goverments and automobile drivers should be subsidising those who take public transport. I would say that the answer is YES especially if we want to conserve oil and gas to last longer in the future.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Sep 8 2006, 11:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (Gusher @ Friday 08/09/06 08:38pm)

Gusher,
Blowout Preventer would no doubt be refering to section 708(8) of the Corporations Act which controls placements to "sophisticated investors". I obtained the following from http://www.icaa.org.au/newsletters/newslet...erid=A117420276

QUOTE

Q: What is a "sophisticated investor" and where can I find guidance on completing a "sophisticated investor" certificate?

A: Product disclosure requirements and regulations relating to security offers are less stringent for investors classified as wholesale clients or 'sophisticated investors'. A sophisticated investor includes an investor with net assets if at least $2.5 million, or who has had a gross income for each of the last 2 financial years of at least $250,000 per year. See section 708(8)© of the Corporations Act 2001, and Regulation 6D.2.03 of Corporations Regulations 2001. Product providers often provide clients and potential clients with a 'sophisticated investor' certificate for the accountant to sign.

The AUASB has issued Audit & Assurance Alert No. 9 titled "Sophisticated Investor Reports under the Corporations Law* Key Issues" This document explains the nature of these certificates and the risks involved in issuing them. Refer to http://www.icaa.org.au/AAA9.pdf.

We strongly suggest that you should retain a copy of any certificate that you issue for the purposes of section 708(8)© of the Corporations Act. You should also retain copies of relevant evidence that formed the basis on which you satisfied yourself of the existence of the net assets or gross income, for which you provided the certificate.


I believe that Euroz Securities were handling the placement for Beach. Small investors do not like these placements because it is preceived as giving preferential treatment to rich mates. Companies no doubt like them because there is no need for the expense of issuing a prospectus. So either get very rich to become a sophisticated investor yourself or get friendly enough with an existing qualified sophisticated investor that he/she will buy shares for you then transfer them to your name for little or no profit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 25 2006, 10:18 PM


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Posts: 404

In reply to: frank on Friday 25/08/06 05:53pm

I dare say that an experienced umpire should be able to tell the difference between a ball that has been damage in the normal course of play and one that has been tampered with. For example the seam of the ball might suddenly appear raised compared with previous overs. That would be damning evidence against the fielding side.

Ball tampering is only a 5 run penalty. Hardly worth risking losing the match for is it?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 23 2006, 12:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (frank @ Tuesday 22/08/06 09:24pm)

frank,

Perhaps all the other umpires are too scared to make an issue of ball tampering. I presume that the other umpire must have agreed with Hair that the ball had been interfered with because he apparently made no objection.

The fact that the ball was 56 overs old would probably make evidence of tampering even more obvious. The issue with the tampering was probably of someone in the field lifting the seam in order to assist the swing bowlers. The seam of a 56 overs old ball would be very flat with respect to the rest of the ball. If the seam is raised, especially only in parts around the ball, the ball is very likely to have been tampered with. Hair does not have to have seen and probably did not see any player tampering with the ball. The condition of the ball is all that is required.

By the way, regarding "bolt out of the blue", "no warning whatsoever", "approach any individual player about his suspicions". They are not permissible actions under the rules of the game. Hair was satisfied (and presumably so was the other unpire) that the rules were broken and the actions in accordance with the laws of the game taken.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 22 2006, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: AgentCooper on Tuesday 22/08/06 05:50pm

AgentCooper,

It is not damage to the ball that Hair was concerned about. It is the lifting of the seam of the ball so that it swings more, cuts off the pitch more, and provide addition leverage to finger spinners etc.

The damage during normal play you refer to actually flattens the seam. So evidence that the umpire would be looking for would be a seam that is raised more than it was before and may be finger nail marks/impressions on and about the seam. Hair may also have seen the bowler appearing to lift the seam.

I think that all the umpires should be coming down hard on this sort of practice and award 5 runs penalties even if they are just suspisious. Any such illegal behaviour would disappear quick smart.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 14 2006, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Dan1 on Monday 14/08/06 08:29am

I thought that I read (or heard) that the companies performing petrol to LPG conversions were pretty much flat out at the moment. So, I don't think that they will be able to work harder and faster. I imagine that there are some significant barriers to entry for the business (eg need to demonstrate considerable competence in doing the job before being allowed a licence to do it) and so have few new entrants into the business.

With the subsidy in place more people will obviously want conversions done. Therefore in accordance with the supply and demand curve, the companies doing the conversions will be able to charge more for the service (about $2,000 more I bet).

In summary, I don't think that many more petrol to LPG conversions will take place after the subsidy is in place and so will not have a significant effect on the demand for petrol or LPG but the price of the conversions will increase dramatically. Good news though, at the expense of tax payers, for the companies doing the conversions.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 13 2006, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Fat Prophets in a report dated 25 July 2006, indicated that the Australian market has been in a consolidation phase with increased volitility since April this year. They say that oil and commodity prices remain high and that this indicates that there are "still considerable price pressure in the pipeline". At the time of writing, Fat Prophets indicated that they believ that the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates again to 6 percent.

So with higher interest rates and cost pressures, Fat Prophets believe that the market will "remain challenging in the near term" with strong profit growth being difficult to achieve into 2007. However, Fat Prophets say that they believe that genuine value will begin to emerge throughout the course of the year and have started identifying a nymber of potential candidate companies for their portfolio. I guess, in due course those companies will be identified to subscribers.

It is in the environment of volatile markets that Fat Prophets say that professional investment advisors really earn their keep, and that in more difficult times, investors will be much more inclined to use the survices of investment companies instead of going on their own.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 12 2006, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I received a Fat Prophets report dated 25 Jul 06 stating that market consolidation after the last 3.5 years of gains is leading to increased volatility without much net overall movement. They expect further consolidation is likely in the near term. Oil and commodity prices remaining high indicates that there is still considerable price pressures and that the reserve bank will continue to raise interest rates.

Fat Prophets are recommending being long term overweight in commodities, especially oil and gold, as they believe that commodities are in a long term bull market. They are also suggesting considering placing money with Listed Invetments Companies (LICs) as they have been underperforming and history shows that their time should be about to come. Of course, Fat Prophets Australia (FAT) being their own LIC was trading at 25.83% discount to NTA (considerably more tha the others they compared with).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 11 2006, 08:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Australia's continuing declining oil production.

Australian oil production falls again
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 3 2006, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Ranson52 on Wednesday 07/06/06 09:03pm

Ranson52,

When the two competing but otherwise apparently identical merger proposals started, I enquired with my broker as to the likely effect they would have on AIH. I was told that either way it was probably a winner for AIH. AIH would have had first call on AGL assets offerred for sale in the event of ALN winning control of AGL, and I presume that the contractual arrangements are still be in force for AGB winning control of ALN and subsequently divesting infrastructure assests.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 3 2006, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: daggie on Thursday 03/08/06 11:34am

daggie,

Just phoned my broker with a query regarding your concerns. He told me that today's Aegis report has 11 stock recommendations for AWE comprised as follows:
  • 3 Strong Buys
  • 4 Buys
  • 3 Holds
  • 1 Underperform
  • No sell recommendations

So the concensus would be to Buy. Probably there would be different recommendations for traders vs investors.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Aug 2 2006, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (paperclip @ Tuesday 01/08/06 05:17pm)

paperclip,

grahamc58 has posted the following on hotcopper:
QUOTE
"Tiger and Leopard are huge targets [> 1 billion bbloe each] in VIC/P49 nearby BMG operations , held by NXS."
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 20 2006, 11:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From Bloomberg.com: Asia, arguments that China's crude oil imports may fall within 3 to 5 years in response to the Chinese government's efforts to conserve fuel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...88y8&refer=asia
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 20 2006, 10:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: subbii on Sunday 16/07/06 03:41pm

An engineer and mathematician decided to settle the argument about which of them was better. It was decided that they would have a race where 100 metres away from them would a stunningly beautiful woman. When the woman yells run and they run to half the distance to the woman and then stop. When the woman again yells run, they would run half the remaining distance and stop, and so on.

The race started. When the woman yelled run, the engineer sprinted to the 50 metre mark but the mathematician remained the start looking quite sad. The woman again yelled run. The engineer makes it to the 25 metre and the mathematician remains at the 100 metre mark.

The engineer turns around at says the mathematician "Why aren't you running?". The mathematician sadly says "There is no point. Neither of us can ever get there. We just keep halving the remaining distance." The engineer laughs and says "Mate, I can get close enough for ALL practical purposes."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 1 2006, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

There is an nice discussion on Commoditel in pages 30 and 31 of the April 2006 edition of the Aegis Emerging Companies Review.
Refer www.aer.com.au/Data/assirt/Reports/BB/46926/XBB_46926.pdf.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jul 1 2006, 03:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Indoman on Saturday 01/07/06 09:50am

Word that I had that got me interested in taking a position was that Morgan was likely to ultimately sell off the telecommunications business and use CMO as a shell company for a play in a resources sector. However, I don't know how reliable that rumour was. I guess you have to look at the history of the directors Morgan, Steinepreis and Sweet.

The following is about Charles Morgan of Gateway Capital sourced from www.gatewaycapital.com.au/company_profile/directors.html. I presume it is the same Charles Morgan! You can see that this Charles Morgan has a considerable interest in petroleum industry and investment banking and stockbroking.

QUOTE
Charles Morgan -
Director

Charles has extensive experience in equity capital markets and has been involved with numerous projects over a 20 year period. The bulk of these were in the resources/oil & gas industries and more recently in the technology sector.

He is, or previously held the position of, Founder, Chairman, Director or major Shareholder in the following companies- Alto Energy Ltd, Nido Petroleum NL, West Oil NL, Fusion Oil & Gas NL, Valdera Ltd, Nautronix Ltd and VectoGen Ltd. Charles acquired the rights over a certain CSIRO technology in 1999 that now forms the basis of the ASX listed company Imugene Ltd (ASX-IMU).

Prior to his involvement in the oil industry Charles was involved in investment banking and stockbroking. He worked for Morgan Grenfell (now Deutsche Bank) in Sydney in Mergers and Acquisitions before moving into institutional dealing for ANZ McCaughan Securities in both Melbourne and London. In London he also worked for BZW Securities, which at that time was a subsidiary of Barclays Bank plc. On his return to Australia Charles was a principal in Morgan McFarlane, a licensed securities dealer.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 30 2006, 07:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: stefoid on Monday 29/05/06 09:32am

There should now be a lot of "tax loss" selling of IIN. I can't see it increasing in value until into the new tax year.

So, I would think holders should take their tax loss against their profits in other trades and view IIN as they would any new investment opportunity to buy or not.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 24 2006, 08:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: J.Fo on Wednesday 24/05/06 04:45pm

Yes J.Fo, I think it nearly gave him a sex change, and they carry on like nothing happenned.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 14 2006, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Gundi Royle still seems to be intimately involved in Gas2Grid's Philippines operations. I contacted Gas2Grid last week about when the planned testing of the Neuvo Malolos-1 wil commence. Gundi Royle e-mailed my last Friday (12 May) the following:

QUOTE
Hello,


We have announced to the ASX that we are conducting the test of the Nuevo Malolos 1 well in Mid May, that is next week.  Equipment and personnel are in place and I expect the test to commence wed/thur next week.

We will make announcements to the exchange as appropriate.

Best regards

Gundi Royle

Director
Gas2Grid Limited

+ 44 20 7613 0053
+ 44 7768 868 158
+ 33 556 23 98 41
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Harold on Tuesday 02/05/06 03:45pm

Yes Harold. I received the newsletter. I presumed it was sent to all shareholders for them to keep the faith. I hope a lot of the non-shareholders have also seen the newsletter.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: balance on Tuesday 02/05/06 04:25am

The reasoning alluded to in the article is that there will be a global recession with a couple of years. Really, who knows? There are reasons for thinking that America will go into recession or a collapse of the $US might be the driver. Alternatively, Asia might take over as the world's economic driver.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 29 2006, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From mpex daily report Friday 28 April 2006 discussing Beach but mentions the Basker-Manta field in the context of the Anzon takeover bid for Nexus:
QUOTE
Despite its highly creditable onshore success, it is Beach’s offshore operations that have been the making of the company. Oil from the Basker-Manta field contributed a whopping 60% of Beach’s revenue for the quarter at a price above the average Beach has realised across its spread of assets at $90 per barrel, which serves to emphasise how significant the asset has become in driving Beach’s growth. Production from the Basker-Manta field is averaging around 7000BOPD, with Beach and project operator Anzon recently delivering a cargo of 400,000bbls of oil worth $35mil to a Victorian refinery. The first production well, Basker-2, has been in production since Nov last year, with Manta-2A drilled in Feb now also successfully completed. The Ocean Patriot rig is currently batch drilling the Basker-3, -4 & -5 production wells which will see the field ramped up to around
25,000BOPD once in full swing. As of late March, cumulative production from the field
was over 700,000bbls, which will play a big ongoing role in helping Beach to achieve its
production target of over 3mil bbls in 2007.

In the verbal warfare that is the Anzon-Nexus takeover saga, Nexus has been frequently downplaying the value of Anzon, stating it is a single project company and questioning the timeframe for when the BMG project will be in full production. Nexus also points out that BMG “has only produced small quantities of oil from a single test well”, questions the reliability of the FPSO and that the total project costs are still a big unknown.

From direct experience, Beach will most likely have differing views on the value of the asset. If it can contribute 60% of reserves income for a company like Beach, which has a range of different onshore oil producing assets also contributing to its production figures, then there is little doubt as to how much it could benefit a junior with no existing production revenue like Nexus.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 25 2006, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From Yahoo News:


QUOTE

http://au.news.yahoo.com//060424/21/ypky.html
Tuesday April 25, 08:24 AM


Cazaly unlikely to win back tenement: expert

A mining law expert says resources company Cazaly has little chance of successfully challenging a Western Australian Government decision to award an iron ore tenement to Rio Tinto.


Minister John Bowler has decided to give the Shovelanna deposit, in the state's north-west Pilbara region, back to Rio after Cazaly snatched it when the mining giant forgot to renew its lease.


Cazaly has lodged Freedom of Information applications to explain the reasons behind Mr Bowler's decision.


The company says once it has received the documents it will finalise its grounds for a judicial review in the Supreme Court.


Professor Richard Hamilton Bartlett, from University of Western Australia's Centre for Mining and Resources Law, says the act gives the minister wide-ranging powers.


"All that the minister has to demonstrate is that the minister was satisfied on reasonable grounds in the public interest, that doesn't mean that the grounds have to be correct, it just means that the minister has to be satisfied," he said.


"I think the section itself should be largely removed except for the environmental issues it can protect because it gives a wide range to ministerial discretion in this way contrary to clarifying the mining act itself."
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 25 2006, 12:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (dr_dazmo @ Monday 20/03/06 12:20pm)

I received the following reply to an e-mail query that I sent to gas2Grid asking when the testing would begin of the sections of the Nuevo Malolos-1 well that had the good gas shows, permiability and porosity during the recent drilling.
QUOTE

Hello - the test program you inquired about is imminent.

Government approval has delayed us a bit, but the equipment is already on the Island.  Mid May is now the likely date, which we will confirm once we have the formal gov. approval.

best regards

Gundi Royle


From previous GGX announcements to the ASX, the equipment will test the interval between 2,750ft and 2,800ft a core from the intervall has been analysed as having excellent reservoir qualities of porosity and permeabilities. The interval 2,745ft to 2,773ft had an initial strong blow and high pressure comparable to that of the Malolos 1 well.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 23 2006, 11:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: sturds on Sunday 23/04/06 10:04pm

QUOTE
RIO who could by rigths be stripped of the tennent on the use it or lose it policy


That would be he way the minister redeem himself over the issue. Order RIO to, within certain time periods, come up with and action a plan to explore the lease and exploit any discoveries or lose the lease to CAZ.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 22 2006, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Article in the Bulletin that may be of interest regarding commodity prices.

Bulletin - Business Lead: Commodities blow out
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 16 2006, 10:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: filament on Sunday 16/04/06 07:15pm

It looks to me that the US is doing what Paul Keating had the Reserve Bank of Australia do in the recession we had to have. The US will just keep jacking up interest rates until a massive recession occurs that will cool it's economy (and everyone else's) to reduce the balance of payments and inflation.

If you accept my above hypothesis, the question then is, an investors what do we do to protect ourselves from the effects?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 8 2006, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: Cha on Friday 07/04/06 01:42pm

Cha,

Fortunately your syory is one the urban myths that are floating around. So we can now enjoy it as a good joke instead of feeling sorry for the poor little bloke.

Refer to http://urbanlegends.about.com/b/a/149168.htm

QUOTE
From David Emery,
February 24, 2005
Hippo Eats Dwarf
Via Museum of Hoaxes, news that a dwarf named Od was swallowed by a hippopotamus in a freak circus accident in northern Thailand. Ouch! Supposedly, an off-kilter bounce hurled the trampoline performer smack dab into the animal's open jaws. "Vets on the scene said Hilda the Hippo had a gag reflex that automatically caused her to swallow," explains a story taken from the Pattaya Mail.

We know it couldn't have happened very recently — if it happened at all — given that the tale is listed as a "1999 urban legend" by the Darwin Awards folks. In point of fact, the story is at least five years older than that, as evidenced by a December 15, 1994 Usenet posting purportedly quoting the Las Vegas Sun:

An Austrian circus dwarf died recently when he bounced sideways from a trampoline and was swallowed by a hippopotamus. Seven thousand people watched as little Franz Dasch popped into the mouth of Hilda the Hippo and the animal's gag reflex forced it to swallow. The crowd applauded wildly before other circus people realized what has happened.
Note that in the 1994 version the dwarf is Austrian and his name is Franz Dasch. There's no mention of the incident occurring in Thailand.

If this isn't an urban legend I'll swallow a dwarf myself.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 8 2006, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Avoca Resources website has a page (www.avocaresources.com.au/research.php) that contains a link to a Hartleys broker report dated 31 March 2006 (although the AVO web page says of the report 4 April 2006) titled "Athena Lodes Add Significant Value to Trident Development".

The conclution or the report says:
QUOTE
We see several share price catalysts in the short to medium term. These include the resource update at the end of April for Trident and the peripheral resources, the signing of a third-party processing agreement, the commencement of dewatering the pit and further high grade drill results. While the current AVO share price is close to our base case valuation, the Athena lodes have the potential to add significant value. We would expect the AVO share price to move towards the upper end of our valuation range of $0.70 to $0.95 per share. We rate Avoca Resources Limited as a Buy.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 6 2006, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: NQBill on Thursday 06/04/06 06:20pm

We will pass 01/02/03/04/05/06 next month too. ie Two minutes and one second past three (am) on the fourth of May, 2006. Of course that was just after one minute and two seconds past three (am) on the fourth of May, 2006.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 1 2006, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: happy2 on Saturday 01/04/06 01:49pm

happy2,

I know that you are only lightening the mood, but for the USA to be exporting problems is highly likely result in them importing poblems too. Countries that are are adversely affected by the US problems are likely to reduce demand for US goods and services thus causing a cycle of decline. sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Apr 1 2006, 02:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

For people who are interested in investing in ERG, I suggest that first you download a free version of IncrdibleCharts, enter erg_ax as the code to be charted, select a Log style chart and select a Monthly view.

The chart will currently show that a plot from the beginning of April 2000 to the end of March 2006 that would make a go-cart rider salivate. If you are a long term investor, the chart is frightening, you would be in a loss position from whatever point you invested in. If you are a short term trader, there should be enough short term price volility for you to play with.

Now, I agree with those that say that charts aren't everything but this is 6 years of data that is showing a roughly continuous decline in share price. A long term investor, would need a considerable amount of convincing that a reversal in the trend is even possible. Such convincing might take the form of:

- Are any of ERG's competitors about to fold?
- Is there some new improved product that ERG is about to release that will take world by storm?
- Is there a major contract that ERG has or might get that will enable them to actually make a heap of profit?
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 23 2006, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My broker rated TAP as a hold in a report dated 20 March 2006 when TAP's price was $2.19. They had a price target of TAP as $2.08 which included 31cps for exploration potential which includes the Jacula and Amulet. They also used for this year US$57.50/bbl for POO, A$2.30/GJ for POG and exchange rate of US75c for $A1.00.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 14 2006, 06:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

It seems to me that by making a counter offer on exactly the same terms is saying to the share holders of both companies "Yes this is fair value, you should accept the offer".

Could not both boards resolve this by accepting the respective offer and after the merger is completed, have a special AGM with all board positions declared vacant and up for election? Why not let the shareholders choose who from each company would be the best directors.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 13 2006, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: apache123 on Monday 13/03/06 07:02am

Is it not just a matter of finding available rigs but also finding experienced drilling crews. I am sure that I read somewhere (night have even been somewhere on ShareScene) that there is a worldwide shortage of people below 50 who are experienced in operating oil and gas drilling equipment.

The governments of countries such as Australia and New Zealand might consider buying/building oil rigs and training crews and hire them out thoughout the Asia/Pacific region.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Mar 11 2006, 11:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: onefineday on Saturday 11/03/06 01:16pm

onefineday,

It is not nonsense that iiNet are telling you. There are only a limited number of ports available for broadband. Remember that unlike dialup internet, connection to broardband is permanently on and so requires a dedicated port. The ports available that service the area where your parents live are no doubt all being used. They will have to wait until someone drops their broadband access or the hardware/cabling or whatever is installed for more ports to become available.

When you checked the internet to see if broardband is available, all the information is saying is that the area has broardband coverage. It does not state that connection to broadband is possible.

I don't know enough about the engineering to know if this is a problem limited to iiNet or to all the broadband providers. If the later, switching to try another service provider will only nput your parents to the back of the queue. Will will need to check all this with the service providers including Telstra.

So it is an engineering issue not an iiNet customer service issue (other than explaining the reason why there are no ports available)
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 16 2006, 09:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

About 2 years ago my wife and I were on a cruise through the western Mediterranean aboard a Princess liner. At dinner we noticed an elderly lady sitting alone along the rail of the grand stairway in the main dining room. I also noticed that all the staff, ships officers, waiters, busboys, etc., all seemed very familiar with this lady. I asked our waiter who the lady was, expecting to be told that she owned the line,but he said he only knew that she had been on board for the last four cruises, back-to-back.

As we left the dining room one evening I caught her eye and stopped to say hello. We chatted and I said, "I understand you've been on this ship for the last four cruises". She replied, "Yes, that's true." I stated, "I don't understand" and she replied, without a pause, "It's cheaper than a nursing home".

So, there will be no nursing home in my future. When I get old and feeble, I am going to get on a Princess Cruise Ship. The average cost for a nursing home is $200 per day. I have checked on reservations on a Princess and I can get a long term discount and senior discount price of $135 per day. That leaves $65 a day for:

1. Gratuities which will only be $10 per day.

2. I will have as many as 10 meals a day if I can waddle to the restaurant, or I can have room service (which means I can have breakfast-in-bed every day of the week).

3. Princess has as many as three swimming pools, a workout room, free washers and dryers, and shows every night.

4. They have free toothpaste and razors, and free soap and shampoo.

5. They will even treat you like a customer, not a patient. An extra $5 worth of tips will have the entire staff scrambling to help you.

6. I will get to meet new people every 7 or 14 days.

7. T.V. broken? Light bulb need changing? Need to have the mattress replaced? No Problem! They will fix everything and apologize for your inconvenience.

8. Clean sheets and towels every day, and you don't even have to ask for them.

9. If you fall in the nursing home and break a hip you are on Medicare; if you fall and break a hip on the Princess ship they will upgrade you to a suite for the rest of your life.

Now hold on for the best! Do you want to see South America, the Panama Canal, Tahiti, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, or name where you want to go?

Princess will have a ship ready to go. So don't look for me in a nursing home, just call shore to ship.



ps: And don't forget, when you die, they just dump you over the side -- at no charge

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 15 2006, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: paperclip on Wednesday 15/02/06 03:18pm

When I was in New York state for a few months in the early 1980's, the owner of an Italian restaurant respond to my request for a meal with "That's a nice southern accent you have". I said, "It's a bit further south than you think. I'm from South Australia." She just looked at me with a blank expression. I was expecting her to ask if that was close to Miami
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 8 2006, 07:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (sabretoothed @ Wednesday 08/02/06 05:38pm)

Don't forget that in Casey's interview, he was also very bullish on Uranium.

However, to counterpoint, Strachan in his StockAnalysis says,
QUOTE
There is no doubt in my mind that the Australian resources market has entered bubble territory.
He writes that last night's "big pull back" in the Gold price could signal a change in sentiment or a warning shot.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Feb 1 2006, 07:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: lgrif on Wednesday 01/02/06 12:35pm

Actually Euroz rates ARQ as a HOLD not a SELL. They downgraded ARQ to HOLD from a BUY on the basis of the recent poor run of results.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 28 2006, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (AgentCooper @ Saturday 28/01/06 11:59am)

Clicking the "people" link in the www.gas2grid.com web site brings up the following information on the directors. The seem well qualified for the positions. May be someone has more data on their performance in their previous companies/roles.

QUOTE
David Alistair Munns, Non-Executive Chairman
Age: 65
Qualifications: Degree in Mechanical Engineering, Peterborough Technical College, United Kingdom

David Munns has been involved in drilling and engineering in South East Asia and particularly the Philippines since 1969 when he established with a Philippino partner Industrial Inspection International Inc. (EYEYE), Philippine Branch. He is the Chairman of DESCO, Philippines a drilling and engineering firm operating in the field of conventional and geothermal drilling. DESCO was established in 1975 and has since become a major energy engineering company. DESCO has worked on over 300 geothermal wells in the Philippines and continues to be a major contractor for Unocal. Mr Munns is a director of TD International, a Singapore based oilfield engineering supply company.

Hildegunde (Gundi) Maria Royle, Managing Director
Age: 50
Qualifications: Diplom Geologe, University of Cologne, Germany

Before entering the finance industry in 1989, Mrs. Royle worked as a geologist, principally for Exxon’s Australian subsidiary. She was lead geologist responsible for the development geology of a number of offshore fields and supervised extensive offshore operations. Mrs. Royle was formerly a managing director and head of energy investment banking at Deutsche Bank and prior to that director of energy equity research. Mrs. Royle also held senior positions at Morgan Stanley where she was the European head of oil and gas research and led the 1996 IPO of Gazprom. Prior to that she was head of energy research for CSFB Australia where she was the top rated oil and gas analyst. More recently Mrs. Royle ran her own energy finance and strategy advisory practice. Amongst her clients are Horizon Investment Company, a Russian investment bank majority owned by OAO Gazprom, British Gas Group plc and BP plc. Mrs Royle is also an honorary fellow at the Centre for Russian and Eastern European Studies at the University of Birmingham.

Dr David King, Non-Executive Director
Age: 58
Qualifications: MSc, Geophysics, Imperial College, London; PhD, Seismology, Australian National University.

After an earlier academic career, Dr King held positions with Offshore Oil NL and Hartogen Energy before an appointment as Managing Director of North Flinders Mines Ltd. In 1991 Dr King joined Beach Petroleum/Claremont Petroleum as Chief Executive Officer, a position he held until 1995. He subsequently became a director of a number of public companies until October 2002. Dr King is one of the founders and major shareholders of Eastern Star Gas Limited, developer of the Wilga Park gas fired power station, where he retains a position as Executive director.

Michael Stirzaker, Non-Executive Director
Age: 44
Qualifications: BCom, University of Cape Town, South Africa; CA, Australia

He qualified as a Chartered Accountant whilst working for Peat, Marwick, Mitchell (now KPMG). In 1986 he joined the Corporate Advisory Division of Wardley James Capel and also spent three years in Corporate Advisory with Kleinwort Benson Ltd in London. Mike has experience in a broad range of corporate finance activity, including mergers and acquisitions, divestments and valuations. He joined RFC in 1993 and has since advised the world’s major mining houses on transaction in the Asia-Pacific region.

He is a director of RFC Growth Fund Limited.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 26 2006, 11:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: paddyd on Thursday 26/01/06 12:24pm

paddyd,

As BP wrote, gas flowed at 5mmscfd and 12mmscfd from two different gas charged intervals intersected by the old Malolos-1 well. So there is no reason to believe there should be any difference with the Nuevo Malolos-1 well which is drilled just a short distance away from Malolos-1 well.

The GGX ASX announcement dated 25 January is an excellent read. The oil that BP refered to and the condensate increasing with depth as reported in the GGX ASX announcement would be a nice bonus.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 11 2006, 07:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: sprite on Wednesday 11/01/06 06:42pm

sprite,

Geology, economics and psychology seems like majors for a Bachelor of Mining and Petroleum Investment. I hope those courses serve you well.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 3 2006, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Today's ASX announcement that GRD Minproc was awarded the engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) contract by CVRD for the A$1.6 billion Niquel do Vermelho project in Brasil.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Jan 2 2006, 10:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (sprite @ Monday 02/01/06 01:47pm)

sprite,

You might find that JC is experimenting with several types of trading strategy portfolios to see which seems to deliver the best outcome. This particular portfolio is part of the experiment on trading in and out over shortish dollar ranges. It is not necessarily a recommendation that others should follow suit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 30 2005, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: wolverine on Friday 30/12/05 08:10pm

wolverine,

Ian's link works for me .
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 30 2005, 06:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

The following article was noticed on HC.
ref: Australian eyes $250m Brazil mine deal

QUOTE
Australian eyes $250m Brazil mine deal
By Robin Bromby
30-12-2005
From: The Australian 
PERTH-based engineering contractor GRD is poised to win a huge mine development job in Brazil that would earn it $250 million in fees over three years.

If successful, the GRD win would cap a boom year for mining contractors, big and small, but one which has also placed enormous strains on the supply of equipment and skilled labour.
It is understood that GRD, through its GRD Minproc subsidiary, has spent recent weeks interviewing potential recruits in Perth, so that it would have enough staff to complete the contract if given the nod by Brazilian iron ore giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce - better known as CVRD.

CVRD plans to spend $US1.6 billion ($2.2 billion) developing its Niquel do Vermelho laterite nickel project.

The commodities boom has not only brought more work for contractors, but bigger jobs.

When, earlier this month, Macmahon Holdings won the $250 million contract to develop BHP Billiton's Orebody 18 iron ore mine in the Pilbara, it was the biggest contract awarded to Macmahon in its 42-year history.

But it will also mean finding another 140 people from the existing pool of skilled workers in the industry.

The strains are being felt everywhere. Also this month, Gunson Resources obtained a drilling rig and crew for a copper project near Port Augusta - after searching for a full year.

GRD called a trading halt after its shares broke into a gallop, putting on 12c when the market re-opened on Wednesday, capping a surge that began the previous week.

Perth investors had got a sniff that GRD was recruiting staff - a sign that it had a big, new job coming up - and telling existing staff to be prepared to relocate.

The company told the ASX, when calling the trading halt, that it was expecting to receive written notification by today on the awarding of the contract for the engineering, procurement, construction and management of the Niquel do Vermelho project in the Brazilian state of Carajas.

CVRD is developing the mine as part of its diversification into other steel feedstocks.

ABN AMRO analyst Roger Leaning cautioned that GRD's recruitment initiatives did not necessarily mean it had the job in the bag.

It was common practice for contractors to sound out potential recruits when they were in the running for jobs.

It could take up to six months to get a team together and contractors liked to be able to hit the ground running if they got the nod.

Mr Leaning said the Brazilian contract would double GRD's earnings, and most of the design work for the project would be done in Australia if it won the contract.

Should the company pull off the CVRD job, it would be the fourth big overseas contract won this year.

In February, GRD won the front-end engineering contract for the large Lumwana copper project in Zambia. It was also named as preferred construction contractor by Equinox Minerals.

Then in June, the company was appointed bankable feasibility study manager for Paladin Resources' Kalelekera uranium mine development in Malawi.

GRD shares surged in September to a 12-month high of $2.96, when the company was named as preferred bidder for a $500 million waste project in Lancashire, Britain.

CVRD's Niquel do Vermelho deposit contains 290 million tonnes at 0.8 per cent nickel and 0.12 per cent cobalt. The company plans to produce 47,000 tonnes of nickel a year.

Just three weeks ago, CVRD wrapped up its takeover of Canadian nickel miner Canico Resources, which owns the Onca Puma nickel project in the Amazon region.

This mine is expected to come into production in 2008. Meanwhile, CVRD is working on three other nickel projects in Brazil.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 29 2005, 07:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Trading Halt announcement late last night. The trading halt request says:
QUOTE
In the next 48 hours the Company expects written notification from CVRD regarding the award of the EPCM contract for the US$1.2 billion Niquel do Varmelho project.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 22 2005, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Nuevo Malolos-1 due to spud tomorrow at a position 10m North of the Malolos-1 well. It appears that the disappointment of the Malolos-1 well was due to the old well causing formation damage at the time of its original drilling 45 years ago.

Just a reminder that the original Malolos-1 well did flow at 5mmscfpd and 12.6mmscfpd on drill stem test 45 years ago.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 21 2005, 07:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (theflasherman @ Monday 05/12/05 12:07pm)

I would have thought that the standard deviations would apply to deviation from a trend. If I am understanding what David has written, it seems that the standard deviation he is refering to is from an average price over some period of time.

For a stock that is steadily rising in nearly a linear manner, the standard deviation from the average price of that stock over the time period is high. However, the standard deviation from the linear trend line for that period is low.

Of course, one's trading perspective needs to be considered. Volatility in a stock that is trending up over a long time period is far less of a concern to a long term investor than to the short term trader.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 20 2005, 07:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Sourced from Reuters via Yahoo News


QUOTE
Democrats fight Alaska drilling in defense bill By Tom Doggett
Mon Dec 19, 6:54 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senate Democrats on Monday threatened a filibuster to stop Republicans from adding a measure allowing oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to a wartime defense spending bill.

For decades, lawmakers have debated whether to give oil companies access to the refuge, home to caribou, polar bears, migratory birds and other wildlife. ANWR, which sprawls along Alaska's northern coast, is the size of South Carolina.

Tapping ANWR's crude oil output, estimated at 1 million barrels per day, is a top priority of the Bush administration. Senate Democrats and moderate Republicans say tougher fuel standards for sport utility vehicles and minivans could save the same amount of oil.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted before dawn on Monday to pass a $453.3 billion defense budget bill with the ANWR drilling provision attached. Senate debate began later.

Furious Democrats said including ANWR drilling to a bill funding U.S. soldiers during wartime violated Senate rules that require a spending bill to include only germane items.

"These tactics reflect poorly on this body and this leadership," said Sen. Russ Feingold (news, bio, voting record), a Wisconsin Democrat, "Funding for our brave men and women in uniform should not be jeopardized by opening ANWR to drilling."

Democrat Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey said the ANWR measure was a "Christmas package designed for delivery to the oil industry" and should be dropped from the bill. "We have got to fight as hard as we can to stop that delivery," he said.

WEDNESDAY VOTE?

Democrats planned a procedural move on Wednesday to delete the ANWR language because it did not appear in original defense spending bill but was added later by House-Senate negotiators. Republicans are likely to defeat that move with a majority of 51 votes, according to aides.

Then, Democrats are expected to launch a filibuster to try and talk the bill to death. Republicans would need 60 votes to end debate and bring the bill to a vote.

"I don't think either side knows precisely what the count is," Republican Pete Domenici of New Mexico told reporters. But he expressed confidence that the entire bill would pass.

"We say it will be 60 senators who will understand that you have to vote for the defense bill (with ANWR in it) because the soldiers need their pay and the military needs their money," said Domenici, chairman of the Senate Energy Committee.

"I don't have any hesitation to be a part of a filibuster," said Democrat Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. "This is a fight worth waging."

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens (news, bio, voting record) of Alaska pushed to include the drilling plan in the defense budget. Alaska would get half the estimated $10 billion energy companies would pay for drilling rights if oil were at $50 a barrel, according to government estimates. The federal government would get the other half.

"Oil is related to national security. This is an amendment to pursue domestic production of oil," he said. "The largest consumer of oil in the United States is the    Department of Defense."

To win votes, Stevens wants to direct a portion of the ANWR oil leasing payments and future oil royalties to coastal states ravaged by this year's hurricanes.

If Congress opened ANWR to drilling, the refuge's oil would not flow into the market for 10 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Once the refuge reached peak production in 2025, it would trim U.S. oil imports to about 58 percent of demand or the same percentage as current imports.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 20 2005, 06:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Article by Bud Conrad from Kitco Casey regarding the recent Gold action.

Link is Gold’s Crazy Action in the Week of 12/16/05
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 20 2005, 06:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Article by Bud Conrad from Kitco Casey regarding the recent Gold action.

Link is Gold’s Crazy Action in the Week of 12/16/05
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 15 2005, 11:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (goldi @ Thursday 15/12/05 01:13pm)

So now BPT and AZA each have 50% of the BMG programme. However, BPT also has a 9.6% equity in AZA.

Terms of BPT's increase additional 12.5% equity are:

  • Effective Date: 1 January 2006.
  • Payment of A$20 million on 13 January 2006.
  • Payment of A$30 million on 28 February 2006.
  • Payment of a US$2.50/bbl royalty on 12.5% share of total production above 30.1 million barrels.
  • Beach will also be responsible for future capital and operating costs associated with the 12.5% interest from the effective date.

BPT's MD Reg Nelson said
QUOTE
The move will increase Beach’s Proved and Probable oil reserves by 3.8 million barrels and add nearly 1 million barrels of oil to its anticipated 2006/07 production. On current oil price values, this will add around A$70 million per year to Beach’s gross revenue.


The Basker and Manta fields have Proven and Probable (2P) recoverable oil reserves of 30.1 million barrels (mmb). In addition, a contingent gas/condensate resource of 19.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) has been identified in the Manta and Gummy Fields.

Reg Nelson said today that
QUOTE
Basker-2 was currently producing at around 10,000 barrels of oil a day
and described that as
QUOTE
highly pleasing and on target.


The full field development development will commence in mid January with the Manta-2 well spudding followed by three further oil development wells drilled over the next 6 months. This will lead to full field production commencing in the third quarter of 2006.

The Basker and Manta fields in Vic/RL-6 contain estimated 2P reserves of 30.1mmbbls with and a further 19.2mmboe of gas/condensate reserves. BPT anticipates will the $50million acquisition will hastily pay itself back, with the extra equity expected to add 3.8mmbbls of oil reserves and $70million per annum in extra revenue attributed to BPT. The Basker-2 well is flowing at 10,000bpd and first sales revenues are expected in mid January.

AZA has committed to a farm in to Nexus’ Vic-P-56 and Vic-P-49 which lie to the immediate south of the Basker-Manta oilfield. Anzon has acquired a 10% interest in
each block prior to the drilling of the 160mmbbl Culverin/Scimitar prospects, which straddle the border of the two exploration blocks. Success at either of the wells will make it a prospect for a quick and easy tie in to Anzon’s Basker-Manta production facilities. Remember that this is of more than just casual interest because of BPT's 9.6% interest in AZA.

Finally, note that BPT has diversified its interests recently by directing funds toward the
major Arrow operated Tipton West CSM project in the Surat basin. Beach has committed to funding up to A$35million for Stage 1 of the project to earn a 40% interest in PL-198 and surrounding ATP-683-P (Dalby block). Stage 1, consisting of around 90 wells plus infrastructure and water handling facilites, will be completed late next year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 12 2005, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Re-entry of the Malolos-1 well in the Philippines commenced on the weekend (Saturday 10-Dec-05) to appraise the 1960's gas discoveries. GGX's ASX announcements say that in the 1960 the well flowed gas at rates of 5mmscfd and 12.6mmscfd from zones at 850m and 1850m. Malolos has the potential for 50bcf of gas.

In the 1960s, gas had no commercial value but now GGX claim that a combined total of 17.6mmscfd flow would be sufficient to fire a 40MW power plant.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 8 2005, 07:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I think that one of the things holding back EQI and others is that people probably believe that the gold price will fall back soon and so want to see a sustained high price of gold before investing in mining companies. I see considerable debate about gold miners share prices (in particular EQI) on HotCopper. There are people who believe that a major pullback is necessary to bring in new holders that will be expecting a much higher price before they exit, and cull existing holders that are itching to exit. Equally there are other who are insistant that there will be no major gold price pullback.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 1 2005, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: theflasherman on Thursday 01/12/05 04:40pm

Flash,

I am interested but I doubt that I have sufficient knowledge in the area to converse intelligently in detail on the topic. The information flow would be from you to me rather than an exchange of views. I am familiar with Net Present Value (NPV) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. I can imagine how Monte Carlo simulations can be used to gauge which complex option is probably the best.

Hopefully, you will find some others to have an intelligent exchange of views and I can parasitically lurk in the background sucking up the knowledge.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 1 2005, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

If you are looking for a reason for a collapse of the US dollar as a reason for a gold bull market, Peter Strachen has expressed his opinions on the recent reversal of a 4 year down trend of the US dollar.

He states that US bond yields have played some part in attracting overseas funds to buy US dollars. However, he believes that another reason is the tax holiday that the US government has given US companies to bring back US funds prior to 31 Dec 2005. Strachen effectively says that this is a short term gain at the expense of greater long term gain.

So once this tax holiday ends, the US dollar should start sliding again. I suppose that the US government could "by popular demand" extend the "special offer", but they can't keep defying financial gravity forever. Of course a sliding dollar will see the gold price rise against it anyway, but when everyone starts dumping the US dollar for gold, the gold price should go into overdrive.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Dec 1 2005, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

This came out of TradingRoom.com.au news.
QUOTE
Gold could be set for bull run: expert
Source: MELBOURNE AAP
Date: 2005-Nov-30 07:48 PM

The gold price has reached a critical stage and could run on to 25-year highs if it maintains its strength over the next quarter, an industry conference has heard.

The gold price climbed to $US500.875 per fine ounce on Tuesday, marking the first time since December 1987 it had broken through $US500.

It's since eased back in Sydney trading to close at $US494.5 per fine ounce, down $US6.375 on the previous local close.

Deutsche Bank chief metals economist Peter Richardson told the Victorian Gold 2005 conference in Melbourne that the recent surge in the gold price would be tested by profit taking.

But if the gold price then recovered and continued its upward movement, it could herald the start of a genuine bull market, he said.

"The levels we now are trading at, we believe, are critical for determining the success or failure of a major breakout above that $US510 level to really test for the first time in 25 years a pricing environment that, even if it doesn't exceed the 1979/80 levels, will come within striking distance of it," he said.

"In other words we are very bullish about the prospect, if we do see over the next quarter a successful breakout above that $US490 to $US510 trade range, .... that we are indeed going back for the first time in 25 years to a genuine bull market in gold."

The gold price reached an all time high in January 1980 of $US850 an ounce, driven by weak growth, rising inflation and high oil prices.

Dr Richardson said concerns over the US economy, inflation and sustained high oil prices were again providing a powerful incentive for investors to hedge risks through the purchase of gold.

"There is an uncanny and eerie similarity between some of the factors that drove the gold price to $US800 in 1979 and 1980 to that which we face," he said.

Dr Richardson said that while the key driver of the gold price was investment demand, the physical demand for gold to be used in manufacturing and jewellery was also being kept strong by the sustained growth of emerging economies.

This physical demand was still price sensitive but had shown a rapid adjustment to the higher prices seen this year.

He told the conference the prospects for the gold price to keep rising were strengthened by the lack of new gold mines.

Gold delivered from new mine production fell by 114 tonnes or 4.4 per cent globally in 2004, the largest drop since the 1940s, and Dr Richardson said a turnaround in output was not expected before 2008.

Deutsche Bank is forecasting gold to trade between $US480 and $US550 in 2006, but Dr Richardson said there was a real chance it could go higher depending on inflation and the oil price.

By Alex Wilson
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 30 2005, 05:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From a note about Arc Energy from my broker:
QUOTE
Key Points
  • Strong current oil production of ~4,500 bpd
  • Underlying fundamentals remain sound
  • Recent share price weakness has created buying opportunity
  • 30 wells planned in CY’06
  • Valuation and target price is $1.96/sh
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 30 2005, 05:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From an OZEQUITIES newsletter that my broker sent to me today.
QUOTE
DR METZ: US EQUITIES RALLY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT YEAR, GOLD IN EXPLOSIVE MULTI YEAR BULL MARKET, JAPANESE MARKET RISING
By Jenny Prabhu

Dr Michael Metz, Chief Market Strategist at Oppenheimer’s in New York told OzEquities today he believes the US market will continue higher early next year, at least into early spring while gold is in an explosive multi year bull market.

Dr Metz said over the next few weeks at least if the hedge funds are to make significant earnings the US equities market is likely to trade the high end of the range. After early spring he expects a trading market but no great disaster next year.

On the strength in the US dollar, Dr Metz said while the recent strength has surprised him, and a significant amount of the strength is due to the repatriation of money back into the US, there is also a lot of scepticism about the Euro, with people preferring to hold the US currency.
Dr Metz said, “My feeling is interest rates (in the US) may very well peak in the next month or two. The Fed has done its job and broken the back of the housing market. My guess is rates will be coming down. The economic outlook is not terribly bright, the consumer will have problems maintaining spending and the end of the consumption boom (is near).”

However, the US equities market is being driven by enormous liquidity and stocks are relatively cheap against other US asset classes. There is a huge amount of merger activity – at something like a two trillion dollar annual rate, Dr Metz said.
The OPEC countries are looking to acquire assets in North America, and the Chinese, if possible are also buyers of North American assets.

Gold is in an explosive bull market
Dr Metz said a great historical shift of wealth is occurring from the west to the OPEC and developing nations. These countries are culturally attuned to holding gold.
Meanwhile, the central banks will stop selling gold, while some central banks are buying.
The strategist said this will lead to an explosively positive demand situation for gold for the next few years, basically driven by this transference of wealth.

China growth expected to continue
Dr Metz said while the questionmark has been whether China’s growth will fall as the US consumer’s spending moderates he believes China’s growth may slow somewhat but will continue, driven by its international trade including intercountry trade in Asia as well as by rising domestic consumption.

Japanese market will be the great bull market of this decade
Dr Metz said the Japanese market still has a long way to go. “The great bull markets  of this decade will be led by the Japanese”, the strategist said.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 30 2005, 05:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From an OZEQUITIES newsletter that my broker sent to me today.
QUOTE
Gold is in an explosive bull market

Dr Metz said a great historical shift of wealth is occurring from the west to the OPEC and developing nations. These countries are culturally attuned to holding gold.
Meanwhile, the central banks will stop selling gold, while some central banks are buying.
The strategist said this will lead to an explosively positive demand situation for gold for the next few years, basically driven by this transference of wealth.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 27 2005, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: pargolf on Friday 25/11/05 08:56am

Pargolf,

You wrote:
QUOTE

Also, 7% of 928Mil is 65 mil, just in excess of $1 a share cf his 73c. Any ideas?

Is there a stack of share options that would come into the money on a share price increase. May be including them gives the Stock Analysis 73cps calculation for unrisked NPV/share for Muness.

As another thought. I believe that I read somewhere that the sharemarket price for a stock usually does not fully reflect the underlying valuation. Could it be that without explicitly stating it, Statchen has applied this derating of the valuation to arrive at 73cps.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 24 2005, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (pargolf @ Thursday 24/11/05 12:20pm)

Muness well to reach target depth hopefully for a Christmas present.

Estimated mean target 350bcf gas + 20mmbbls condensate/oil.

Figures for EXR are below:

Muness 21/4b
7.0% Equity
78Mbbls Target Oil
20.0% Risk
$928 NPV
73c Unrisked NPV/sh
$186m Risked NPV
$2.3m Cost
13c NPV/sh

Jaguar Block 211/22b
40% Equity
250Mbbls Target Oil
9.1% Risk
$2,961 NPV
$13.31 Unrisked NPV/sh
$269m Risked NPV
$2.1m Cost
$1.19 NPV/sh
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 20 2005, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

I have often thought about the problems that might occur if Superman had attempted to father a child with a human woman. I have finally come across an article that discusses this in depth.

Click on the link below if you too are interested.


Man of Steel, Woman of Kleenex
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 14 2005, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

My broker sent me a note by one of their researchers arguing that if TLS increase wholesale broadband prices, this should actually benefit the IIN share price in the long term. The points made by the research note are:

SHORT TERM:
  • Increasing wholesale rates would likely kill the wholesale industry to the demise of many smaller ISPs and the TLS wholesale division.
  • Short term, it would impact 2006 EBITDA, as second half customers of IIN, not yet on IIN gear, become more expensive for IIN to service.
  • Very preliminary analysis suggests 2006 EBITDA decreases from $52.9m to approx $47m. Although not yet modelled, it is suspected that it would not impact the overall 2007 result considerably as IIN would be compelled to roll out DSLAM quicker and convert customers quicker. In the analysts view the current price already reflects a market sentiment that 2006 EBITDA will be approx $47m.
LONG TERM:
  • About 35% of current subscribers are outside the big 4 or 5 providers.
  • These providers will be unable to compete literally from day 1.
  • This translates to a lot of subs on the move, either acquired or via churn - and remember price to price, IIN remain quicker with better downloads. (Even after offers such as the TLS half price B/Band for a year).
  • IIN have a huge head start on anybody else in rolling out gear - so are well placed to stay cost leader.
  • ACCC, who have influence on the only cost that can significantly impact IIN when customers are on IIN gear (the ULL cost), is going to be disinclined to increase ULL costs in an increasing wholesale cost environment (this flies in the face of competition)
  • The ULL price has been subject to considerable speculation, in the analyst's view there is no reason to suggest these costs will rise, although clarity may be some time away.
The analyst summarises his view as "In the long term, an increase in wholesale rates would significantly reduce competition, leaving only those with their own gear in the game, and IIN is well positioned to participate as cost leader in an industry that is set to triple."


I note the analyst's view that the market has priced fully reacted to the possibility of a hike in the wholesale rates. However, I feel that this is optimistic and suspect that when announced, IIN's share price might take a bit of a beating until there is evidence that some of the competition is dropping out of the game.

Now my position is that I have completely sold out of IIN because the drop in share price vs the analyst's high valuation $4.38 and 12 month price target of $4.33, felt like that the analyst had missed something. However, that price target looks very attractive, so I will review my position again after the New Year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 14 2005, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

QUOTE (tuapui @ Monday 14/11/05 12:11pm)

tuapui,

AZZ are well cashed up to pay for the buyback. They did not "lose" the income stream in Turkey. They sold it at quite a nice price according to most commentators. Your logic about the buyback driving the shareprice down is in error. The buyback does not set a cap on the share price, it provides a floor. Anyone who wants to sell and might have accepted a lower price because of a lack of demand for their shares can now feel confident that the company is in there providing that demand.

In the long run, it could be argued that a buyback might drop the price because it may end up with less assets to fundamentally support a high share price but because of the buyback there are less shares on issue. The general rule of thumb is that if a company has excess cash for its ongoing requirements, it should return the cash to the current shareholders either in dividends, special dividends or by supporting the share price with share buybacks.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 10 2005, 06:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

In reply to: sabretoothed on Wednesday 09/11/05 08:47pm

For people who held ERG long term prior to the last share consolidation (10 to 1 wasn't it), ERG needs to be at least a 10 bagger (but more likely a 30 bagger) from this point just for those investors to break even. So I agree that the only semi-reliable way to make money out of ERG is to be a savy share trader not a long term investor.

Don't mind me, I only have an academic interest in ERG. One of my former bosses and a former work colleague use to be a manager at ERG several years ago. So I got their side of the story about ERG management and directors. It certainly scared me off considering putting any money in ERG when I might have otherwise invested.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Nov 3 2005, 07:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

Apparently there is a certain shareholder that sold a stack of shares dragging the share price right down. Long term players of Amity and Antares would probably be able to guess who. I thought that person had sold out of Antares a some time ago but must be using AZZ as a trading platform.

Anyway, as Broadway stated, the next lot of drilling is over 2 months away. That might mean that the share price might drift lower well into the 40c range.
  Forum: By Share Code

Smartman_plc
Posted on: Oct 27 2005, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 404

From Ferret's market reactors in www.shm.com.au dated October 27, 2005 - 12:59PM

QUOTE
CBH RESOURCES (CBH) down 3.5c to 19c: Pointed out in its September quarter report that the interruption to production at the Endeavour Mine (announced Monday) would have "a significant effect" on the current year's financial result and cash flow.
  Forum: By Share Code

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