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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
nipper
post Posted: Today, 09:45 AM
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Posts: 9,993
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Today, 09:25 AM

The ASX is looking for 32 pts higher.

  • AUD +0.2% to 73.33 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net +3.6% to $US48,075
  • On Wall St: Dow 0.7% ; S&P 500 0.9% ; Nasdaq 0.8%
  • In New York: BHP +0.8% ; Rio +1.2% ; Atlassian +1.3%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.1% ; FTSE -0.3% ; CAC -1% ; DAX -0.7%
  • Spot gold -0.7% to $US1792.36/oz
  • Brent crude +2.7% to $US75.56 a barrel
  • US oil +3.2% to $US72.68 a barrel
  • Iron ore -4.1% to $US116.65 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.21% ; Australia -0.01%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.80% ; Australia 0.59%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.30% ; Australia 1.20% ; Germany -0.31




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Today, 09:25 AM
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U.S. stock indices closed in positive territory overnight spurred higher by a 3% rally in oil prices. The S&P500 closed at 4481 (0.85%), the Dow Jones closed 2937 points higher at 34814, and the Nasdaq closed at 15460 (+0.50%). There remains several key event risks left in September, including Friday nights quadruple witching for U.S. stocks, the FOMC meeting (September 22nd), the infrastructure deadline (September 27th) as well as the debt ceiling expiration (September 30th). Providing the S&P500 remains above trend channel support at 4435/25 on a closing basis allow for a rally towards 4600. Keeping in mind a sustained break and close much below 4435/25 it would warn that a deeper decline into the 4300/4250 support area is underway.


The ASX200 closed 12 points lower yesterday at 7417, as falls in the big three iron ore miners, BHP, RIO, and FMG offset gains from healthcare heavyweights CSL and Cochlear. As previously noted, while the ASX200 all but reached our long-standing pullback target 7320/00 last week, a break and daily close above resistance at 7450/70ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for a retest of support at 7320/00. The ASX200 is expected to open 36 points lower this morning at 7443. Resistance on the day is expected at 7460, and support viewed at 7400.

 
early birds
post Posted: Today, 03:12 AM
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Composite Volume surpassed 10 billion shares for the third straight day on Tuesday. That may not seem like a big deal, but the last longer streak came in mid-June (five from 6/15-6/21).



2

Volume eclipsed 10 billion shares EVERY day in the first quarter. Not surprisingly, the greatest amount of volatility of 2021 occurred in the year's first three months, as well. The question is whether the increased participation now is just an aberration or the beginning of a new phase.



3

We typically don't see huge volume in a steady, non-volatile uptrend. As discussed yesterday, big one-day moves (especially big gains) have been missing lately: we havent seen a 1% SPX advance in 36 trading sessions now.



4

Small daily moves = low volatility = low volume = persistent uptrend. When that equilibrium gets disturbed, the trend can be threatened. In other words, if volume continues to rise, something will have to give.



5

And if that does change, we'll see it in the pattern work, too, but only after there's evidence of deterioration. That's slowly been happening. The latest bearish pattern downside target remains in play (4,410)



6

But for now, the Bear Oscillator remains in the Tame Zone (0-3). Actually acquiring that target would push the indicator to the Elevated Risk area (4).

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early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:33 AM
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In a resumption of last weeks September weakness, all three key us equity indices closed lower despite a softer than expected August inflation number that rose by just 0.3%, the lowest in 7 months. The S&P500 closed at 4443 (-0.57%), the Dow Jones closed 292 points lower at 34578, and the Nasdaq closed at 15383 (-0.33%). There are several key event risks in the coming weeks to keep the market on its toes, including the deadline for the budget draft deadline (September 15th), the FOMC meeting (September 22nd), the infrastructure deadline (September 27th) as well as the debt ceiling expiration (September 30th). Providing the S&P500 remains above trend channel support at 4435 on a closing basis allow for a rally towards 4600. Keeping in mind a sustained break and close much below 4435ish would warn that a deeper decline into the 4300/4250 support area is underway.


The ASX200 closed 12 points higher yesterday at 7437, again supported by the energy sector, which closed up almost 5%, and a dovish speech from RBA Governor Philip Lowe. As noted in an article on Monday, while the ASX200 all but reached our long-standing pullback target 7320/00 last week, a break and daily close above resistance at 7450ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for a retest of support at 7320/00. The ASX200 is expected to open 48 points lower this morning at 7388. Resistance on the day is expected at 7425, and support viewed at 7370.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 14 2021, 09:21 AM
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US CPI data tonight, there is plenty of event risk in the coming weeks, including the deadline for the budget draft deadline (September 15th), the FOMC meeting (September 22nd), the infrastructure deadline (September 27th) as well as the debt ceiling expiration (September 30th). Providing the S&P500 remain above trend channel support at 4435 allow for a rally towards 4600. Keeping in mind a sustained break and close much below 4435ish would warn that a deeper decline into the 4300/4250 support area is underway.

As noted in an article yesterday, while the ASX200 all but reached our long-standing pullback target 7320/00 last week, a break and daily close above resistance at 7450ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. The ASX200 is expected to open 10 points lower this morning at 7415. Resistance on the day is expected at 7445, and support viewed at 7380

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2021, 08:59 AM
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A fifth straight session of declines for the S&P500 and the Dow Jones on Friday on concerns about the growth outlook and reduced central bank stimulus. The S&P500 fell -1.7% for the week reaffirming September's reputation as the weakest month of the year, closing at 4459 (-0.77%). The Nasdaq closed at 15441 (-0.77%) while the Dow Jones closed 272 points lower at 34608. Our base case is for the correction in the S&P500 to test and hold trend channel support 4435 area before the uptrend resumes. However, should the S&P see a sustained break and close much below 4435ish, a deeper decline into the 4300/4250 support area is possible.


The ASX200 closed 37 points higher on Friday at 7406 after testing resistance, formerly support, 7440/30 area. Likely, a lot of the buying seen on dips earlier last week (and the week before) was related to the $30b of dividends announced during reporting season. As soon as a stock goes ex-dividend, fund manager buys ASX200 futures to avoid tracking issues. Signs of basing/stabilisation ahead of trend channel support 7320/00 area would be an initial indication the correction is complete, before a resumption of the uptrend. Aware that should this fail to materialise, further falls towards the next area of support at 7200 is likely underway. The ASX200 is expected to open 57 points lower this morning at 7350. Resistance on the day is expected at 7390, and support viewed at 7320.

 


early birds
post Posted: Sep 10 2021, 09:15 AM
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The S&P500 and the Dow Jones fell for a fourth straight session as September begins to live up to its reputation for the weakest month of the year. The average decline in September for the S&P500 over the past ten years has been -0.60%. Negative prints can be observed in five of the ten years, including a -7% fall in 2011, a -2.5% fall in 2015, and a -4% fall in 2020. The overnight close in the S&P500 below support at 4510/00 indicates the expected correction towards trend channel support at 4435 is underway. The Dow Jones closed for a third session below trendline support from the March 2020 low. Should the Dow Jones break and close below the August 34690 low, look for the correction to extend towards the 200-day ma at 33,000.
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more of stats and basic TA stuff, with loosen monetary policy for most of central banks, a correction is the worst [ i doubt market can go that low esp for DOW] imho though.

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The ASX200 closed 142 points lower yesterday at 7369. The break of the band of support noted at 7440/25 triggering a wave of sell stops and momentum sellers, as all sectors finished in the red. Our articles and the Morning Brief have noted the 7320/00 trend channel as the preferred buying level in recent weeks. As such, we are now looking for stabilisation/basing in this region, aware that should this fail to materialise, a deeper decline is likely underway. The ASX200 is expected to open 10 points higher this morning at 7383. Resistance on the day is expected at 7418, and support viewed at 7340.





 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 10 2021, 12:25 AM
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The SPXs strongest rallies in 2021 have come from dips within the uptrend, not on breakouts. Thus, the best risk/reward set up would be seeing the SPX:



1. Drop to the bottom of the 2021 trading channel and hold.

2. Seeing a bearish pattern form, FAIL and create a bear trap.

3. Visit and hold above the 50-Day MA.

4. Drop from the Upper Bollinger Band to the Lower Bollnger Band, hold and reverse.

======================

the chart looks that way......

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 09:58 AM
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September is beginning to remind why its one of the weakest months of the year on a seasonal basis. The S&P500 and the Dow Jones fell for a third straight session on concerns over the delta variant's impact on economic growth, following disappointing payrolls last week. The S&P500 closed at 4514 (-0.13%), the Dow Jones closed 69 points lower at 35,031, while the Nasdaq closed at 15621(-0.35%). While the S&P500 failed to register a daily close below near-term support at 4510/00, there are signs the expected correction towards trend channel support at 4430 is begrudgingly underway. The Dow Jones appears to be a more willing participant, closing for a second day below trendline support from the March 2020 low. Should the Dow Jones break and close below the August 34690 low, look for the correction to extend towards the 200-day ma at 33,000.


ASX200 finished 18 points lower yesterday at 7512, once again recovering from early losses as dip buyers stepped in to buy weakness. A break/close below support 7440/25 would likely see an end to this trading pattern before a push towards support 7320/00, my preferred buying level. The ASX200 is expected to open 34 points lower this morning at 7478. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7515, and support viewed at 7445

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please DYOR as always!!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 08:23 AM
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So far, traders have been content with treating September like August, with the SPX having been confined to a tight trading range over the last six days (8/30-yesterday).

n fact, it looks quite similar to the period just preceding this one, when the index traded in a narrow band for five trading sessions.

Two names on the above list are Semis, and their prowess has helped the SMH remain in proximity to its own recent highs, too. While SMH has done well in 2021, its struggled when trying to immediately extend breakouts. In other words, buying dips within the uptrend has been a better strategy. It will be interesting to see if this time is any different.

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were still waiting for the next pattern to present itself. Indeed, a break above or below this range would prompt a new price target. But it would be only 30 points away and not exactly a gamechanger for either side.



 
 


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