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Gold, Gold Companies worth buying
mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 10:12 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 3 2021, 08:05 AM

The fundamentals for gold have changed little over the past few months.
Last night we saw the PM's gain a bit in the US market, but it has fallen a tad in AUD terms today.
But that has not stopped a big in some PM stocks this morning.
RMS up 10%, PRX up 8%, while others such as SLR, SBM, RRL are up 3%, and others such as DCN and EVN have barely moved.
It looks like the traders have decided that Goldies have fallen enough and are now into another run.
Nothing has changed much in terms of these stocks, its purely sentiment. (aka manipulation).
Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 08:40 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 3 2021, 08:05 AM

been looking at going back into gold, but it is still a (surprising) waiting game, IMO

Thanks for these snippets, eb ; they are always useful


QUOTE
gold prices peeked below $1710 for the first time since June

and I guess peeking below is very different to peaking , below !! smile.gif



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 08:05 AM
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What in the world is wrong with gold?
Despite being in an environment tailor-made for gold to thrive, the yellow metal continues to lag. Why?

Imagine you went back in time six months and told an investor the following:

Central banks would continue to buy up assets and expand the money supply
Governments would continue to run record fiscal deficits
The US dollar would fall
Inflation expectations would rise
Rioters would storm the US Capitol
I don’t know about you, but that sounds like an environment tailor-made for gold prices to surge into record territory to me. Instead, the yellow metal has been one of the most disappointing assets on the planet over the last two quarters, with prices down nearly -20% from their August peak and -8% year-to-date. Even January’s political turmoil wasn’t enough to boost gold: the “ultimate safe haven” asset fell 2% on the day that rioters stormed the Capitol and ultimately finished that week down 6% from pre-raid levels.

So why is gold so weak?

As with any question about a market movement, there are multiple answers.

First, it’s worth noting that gold has a reputation for being an uncorrelated investment, and falling while nearly every other speculative asset is surging into record territory is certainly confirmation of that. Many long-term gold holders are most interested in the yellow metal’s diversification benefits when their other investments are falling, an environment that we haven’t seen much of late. In other words, in order to take their victory laps while everyone else is losing, gold bugs by definition must occasionally lose money while every other investment is rising.

One other possible explanation is that cryptoassets like Bitcoin actually are gaining market share for the global “store of value” demand. After all, famous investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones both believe the idea has merit, and Bitcoin did surge 9% on the day of the Capitol riots. That said, despite its technological merits, Bitcoin will never be able to approach gold’s unfathomably long history of being a reliable store of value, so gold bugs would argue that this may be a more short-lived phenomenon.

The final explanation for gold’s recent underperformance could be that it’s just noise. As any experienced trader will tell you, markets don’t always move perfectly as they’re “supposed to.” It’s always possible that the market’s collective understanding of gold as a hedge against fiat currency debasement is no longer relevant, but more often, traders will ignore a seemingly relevant development before coming around to respect it again all at once.

Gold technical analysis

Just this morning, gold prices peeked below $1710 for the first time since June, though they have staged a decent bounce off the lows as we go to press:

Moving forward, previous-support-turned-resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-August 2020 rally near $1765 could cap short-term rallies. Traders would need to see a break above that level to flip the near-term bias back in favor of the bulls. Meanwhile with traders selling any short-term rallies of late, the next downside level to watch will be the 61.8% retracement of that same rally near $1690, corresponding with some of the lows we saw through Q2 2020.

=======================

thought it might helps ..for the gold bugs. some TA support level to focus on. some times logical dose not work for short term. devilsmiley.gif


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nipper
post Posted: Feb 15 2021, 11:42 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 15 2021, 11:07 AM

I saw the Silver index was up nearly 2%, yet Gold was down, at open.

maybe some comments from the Germans?
QUOTE
Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank:


So, what did Weidmann say in his interview with Augsburger Allgemeine, published yesterday (late Friday)?

In a nutshell he predicted that inflation in Germany will rise to 3% this year and that monetary policy will need to be tightened if the price outlook requires it.

He also called for Germany to return to its strict curbs on budget deficits once the pandemic ends.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 15 2021, 11:07 AM
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Sudden intraday switch in sentiment for gold stocks.
After being down for most of the day, a sudden 2% jump in virtually all the ones I have an interest in.
Could it be that the word has got out that the Plunge protection Team will be having a holiday?
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 15 2021, 11:07 AM
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Sudden intraday switch in sentiment for gold stocks.
After being down for most of the day, a sudden 2% jump in virtually all the ones I have an interest in.
Could it be that the word has got out that the Plunge protection Team will be having a holiday?
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


triage
post Posted: Jul 6 2020, 11:56 PM
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Bugger it, I'm bored so I'll write some stuff.

In October 2018 a small outfit called Spectrum which was run by a couple of stock trading executives bought an old mine pit a couple of hundred clicks south east of Mt Magnet, WA. The site is called Penny West and is less than 900 hectares in area. The two blocks they bought had a JORC of less than 10k ounces at 5g/t and they paid all up $1m which consisted of $50k cash and the rest in scrip in Spectrum. Within 6 months a drilling campaign turned up good hits of high grade ore and within 18 months they had sold the company and the two blocks to Ramelius (RMS) for about $220m (some cash but mostly scrip). They had hit the jackpot.

About 30 clicks to the north of Penny West another financial suit had managed to get his company, Rox (RXL), into a 50:50 jv with the dominant tenement holder in the district, Venus (VMC), for much of those tenements, including another old pit called Youinme. Youinme actually used to have a processing plant right next to it but the plant had been mothballed years ago. Youinme already had over 1m ounces of JORC resources but about half of that was in refractory ore that would need specialist processing. The jv needed to uncover more gold if they were to re-establish the area as a working mine. But when they started drilling next to the old pit heading in a line from the airstrip towards the plant site, an area they refer to as the Grace Prospect, they not only found reasonable amounts of high grade near-surface gold but they also stumbled across high grade gold in a type of granite at fairly deep levels (the old operators had not drilled deep and had not thought to drill into the granite). The jv has another batch of drilling results due out anytime now and the expectation from the frenzied mob at hc is that these will also show bonanza levels of gold. We'll see. Rox acted quickly to take up an extra 20% in the Youinme jv for not much at all. It was a win for Rox and left a feeling amongst Venus holders that they had been done over.

Between Youinme and Penny West and also to the south of Penny West much of the blocks are held either by Venus outright or by Venus Rox 50:50 jv's and running north to south between Youinme and Penny West (and extending north of Youinme and south of Penny West) is the Youinme shear zone. People have joined the dots: if there is lots of high grade ore in the shear zone at Youinme and there is lots of high grade ore in the shear zone at Penny West maybe there are other high grade deposits to be found along that shear zone. That's what is being extrapolated but the current reality is that in that district there are two isolated high grade deposits (remember this: this bit is fact, the rest is speculation and dreaming).

One more thing, abutting the southern boundary of the Penny West blocks is another small block, called Penny South, currently owned outright by a tiddler called Aldoro (ARN). In the middle of last year there appears to have been a reverse takeover of Aldoro as the listed company took over Penny South from a private company and also appointed two blokes from that private company as MD and Chairman of Aldoro. Both are geologists and Penny South is their major project.

Now, Ramelius has a market cap of about $1.7b and they currently intend to haul the ore from Penny West up to their processing plant at Mr Magnet. The boss of Rox has said he wants to build a modular processing plant at Youinme. Rox's mc is about $160m. The junior partner in the jv, Venus, has market cap is just north of $43m. And Aldoro, well Aldoro has a mc of just over $4m.


Now even though Aldoro only has maybe less than 3 km of the Youinme shear zone in its tenement with a mc of only $4m it would only take one good hole for it to shoot up (it does after all hold 100% of that tenement). On the other hand Venus with all its coverage in the district only owns 50% of most of the tenements and only 30% of the Youinme project, including the brilliantly performing Grace prospect. It and Rox have a tenement to the immediate south of the Aldoro tenement at Penny South which is called Penny West Deep South. The mc of Venus is around $43m. If the jv continues to have major success at the Grace prospect or were to hit high grade deposits at Penny West Deep South you would expect the VMC shareprice to shoot up but not, in percentage terms, like ARN could with similar success. Of course Venus has other prospects in that district so if it turns out there are a number of high grade deposits Venus could have multiple winners.

And the senior partner in the Youinme project, Rox, has a market cap of about $170m. If the difference in market cap between Rox, at about $170m, and Venus, at about $43m, was entirely due to the 70:30 split at Youinme then if Venus had a mc of $43m then Rox would have a mc of only $100m. Seeing how the rest of their jv's are a 50:50 split I reckon that suggests that Venus is more competitively priced than Rox at the moment. But even if it does hit additional high grade deposits it will have to share those successes with Rox.

Anyway I'm not sure what I am saying is the better value here. Aldoro, with very limited amount of the shear zone has much less chance of hitting a high grade deposit but if it did then remember that Ramelius paid $220m for the nextdoor tenements. With Venus you have far more chances that they will find one or two high grade deposits but at best Venus will only hold 50% of that success. So, lower risk but likely lower return. If Rox were to have further success then sure it is more likely to go all the way in becoming a producer but my guess is that people are paying a premium for Rox over Venus (possibly partly explained by the suit that is the Rox MD having a hc fan club that seems to think he can walk on water).

And sitting in the background is Ramelius which could swallow any or all of the other players if it so desired. At the moment they seem happy to have acquired Penny West so as to have high grade ore they can haul up to Mt Magnet and mix with lower grade stuff from much closer to the mill. But if there were signs of multiple high grade deposits being proven up in that area they may decide to step in and take over the entire district and build an additional processing plant in the district. I am not looking to buy any more RMS but as a holder I think that could be a very positive move for them. It would push them well over the 300k oz pa figure they have been striving to reach, it would give them an additional mill churning out very high grade very low cost gold, and with a proven life of mine easily the equal of the 6 year life of mine they have with their existing mills.

Anyway, this may all come to nothing. But one way or the other, we should know by Christmas.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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joules mm1
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 10:39 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Feb 26 2020, 12:38 PM

gold ($xauusd) nearterm still not finished it's probing lower
also keep in mind the AUD is at major low v USD (at/below 2008 low) so wouldnt bet on a continuation of that trend which impacts local stocks and likely to attenuate hedging
OBM showed that having a tight register is a killer when larger money wants to exit even tho it has shown decent enough results

https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian...istorical-chart




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Feb 26 2020, 12:38 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 26 2020, 10:22 AM

be slow to rush in, Mick
gold and silver shows some very strong trend signals since their recent highs, silver a non-confirmation to gold (usd's)




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 26 2020, 10:22 AM
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Everything bar the VIX is down.
Pm's especially Silver were crunched overnight, reflected in all my gold stocks down today and yesterday.
Some of them down 15% from recent highs, perhaps a bit oversold.
Waiting for a signal to add to my gold stocks.
Mici



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