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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
early birds
post Posted: Today, 09:39 AM
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Crude oil closed over 3% higher at $72.63 after a U.S. government report showing a bigger-than-expected decline in crude stockpiles and as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. Technically the view remains, crude oil completed a three-wave corrective pullback from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low of August, and the uptrend has resumed targeting a test and break of the $76.98 high. Iron ore’s meteoric fall from grace has continued as the spot price closed at $113.40 p/t (-5.80%). Yesterday data in China showed that August steel production dropped to a 17month low, the fastest drop in 17 years. Under these influences, further falls towards $100 p/t are likely.


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early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:35 AM
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Crude oil closed higher at $70.43 (+1.35%), consolidating its break higher as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. Technically the view remains, crude oil completed a three-wave corrective pullback from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low of August, and the uptrend has resumed. Iron ore’s fall from grace has continued as the spot price closed at $120.35 per tonne (-1.80%), now 50% below its high of $240 per tonne in May. China, which buys 97% of all iron ore from Australia and Brazil, is reducing steel output to reduce carbon emissions at the same time as Brazil is increasing supply. Under these influences, further falls towards $100 per tonne are likely. China will report August steel production in today's industrial production numbers.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2021, 09:01 AM
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Copper closed higher on Friday at $4.43 (+3.35%) after news that Shanghai copper stocks fell 10.7% from the previous week to their lowest level in almost ten years. Watching now for a break and close above trend channel resistance at $4.50 as an initial indication a retest of the $4.888 high is underway. Crude oil closed higher at $69.71 (+2.30%) as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. A break and close above recent highs $70.50ish would be an initial indication the next leg higher towards the $76.98 high is underway.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 10 2021, 09:16 AM
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Copper has been strangely quiet of late, closing overnight at $4.28 (+1.15%). It is worth keeping this one on the radar because if fears over growth concerns begin to ease, a break and close above trend channel resistance at $4.50 does have the potential to accelerate higher. On the other hand, iron ore has been moving around significantly in recent weeks and finds itself again testing support $130/125 area. Should it fail to hold this support in the coming sessions, risks area for a deeper decline towards $100 p/t.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 09:59 AM
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Silver closed at $24.02 (-1.14%), testing the view that silver had commenced a new impulsive leg higher after Friday's disappoint U.S jobs data. Providing silver can hold above near term support $24.00/$23.70, we remain with the view that the “flash crash” $22.10 low completed a corrective sequence from the February $30.14 and that the rally from the $22.10 low has the potential towards the 200 day moving average at $26.00. Aware that much below $23.70, a retest of the $22.10 is likely. Crude oil closed at $69.35 (1.46%) as U.S. Gulf of Mexico producers have made slow progress in restoring supply after Hurricane Ida. Technically, the view remains that the correction from the $76.98 high is complete at the $61.82 low, and the preference is to buy dips in crude oil, looking for a retest of the $76.98 high.




 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 8 2021, 09:20 AM
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Gold closed lower at $1797 (-1.43%) as the rebound in the US dollar/risk aversion ruffled feathers in the commodities space. In doing so, it confirmed a triple top of sorts near $1835, while below there is a triple bottom located near $1675. A break/close of one of these levels now pivotal for a clue as to its next big move for gold. Joining gold on the slippery slope lower, silver closed at $24.35 (-1.27%). Providing silver can hold above near term support $24.00/$23.70 the view is the “flash crash” $22.10 low completed a corrective sequence from the February $30.14 and that the rally from the $22.10 low has the potential towards the 200 day moving average at $26.00. Aware that much below $23.70, a retest of the $22.10 is likely.

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i like silver, think it has some industrial use [esp good battery eg..] imho though!!


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early birds
post Posted: Sep 7 2021, 09:30 AM
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Silver closed unchanged at $24.69 overnight, although it remains interesting both from a technical and fundamental perspective. Fundamentally, Fridays' softer US jobs number reduces the urgency around a Fed taper announcement and undermines support for the US dollar. This is supportive of silver. Technically, the “flash crash” $22.10 low appears to have completed a corrective sequence from the February $30.14 high, and the rally from the $22.10 low now has a more impulsive look after Friday’s rally. Providing silver can hold above support $24.00/$23.70, allow the rally to extend towards the 200 day moving average at $26.00, before trend channel resistance at $27.40. Iron ore closed at $131.50 p/t (-9.30%) after the NMDC, the Indian government-owned mineral producer and India’s largest iron ore producer and exporter reduced prices by Rs 1,000 a tonne. This sets up another test of support at $125 p/t which iron ore needs to hold to prevent a deeper pullback towards $100 p/t.



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 6 2021, 10:24 AM
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Riding on the back of the softer US dollar, silver closed 3.39% higher at $24.69, and the rally from the “flash crash” $22.10 low now has a more impulsive look. Providing silver can hold above support $24.00/$23.70, the rally has the potential to extend towards the 200 day moving average at $26.00 before trend channel resistance at $27.40. Gold closed higher at $1826.19 (+0.93%) after an intraday test of the $1835 double high. A break and daily close above $1835 would open up an assault on long-term trend channel resistance near $1870 from the August $2075 high. A break and close above $1870 would indicate the 12-month correction in gold is complete, and the uptrend has resumed



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 3 2021, 09:26 AM
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Crude oil closed higher at $69.70 (+1.62%), extending its recovery on renewed optimism about global economic growth and following EIA data that showed crude inventories dropped by 7.2 million barrels last week. Technically the view remains the correction from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low is complete and that the uptrend has resumed, targeting a test and break of the $76.98 high. Despite the softer US dollar, gold eased lower to close at $1809 (-0.27%). As noted earlier in the week, we thought it unlikely gold traders would be brave enough to take on the $1835 double high before the US jobs data. However, should gold close above $1835 after the jobs tonight, it would set up an assault on long-term trend channel resistance near $1870 from the August $2075 high. A break and close above $1870 would indicate the correction is complete, and the uptrend has resumed.

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i holding large chunk of OSH, good to see oil price pop up, think it will go above $4 at least in short term [ few weeks] imho though. and i'm really biased !! ohmy.gif




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early birds
post Posted: Sep 2 2021, 11:05 AM
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Despite the modestly lower US dollar, commodities were mostly lower overnight. Crude oil closed lower at $68.23 (-0.27%), as OPEC+ agreed to stick to their existing policy of gradual oil output increases. Technically the view remains the correction from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low is complete and that the uptrend has resumed, targeting a test and break of the $76.98 high. Copper closed lower at $4.2825 (-2.11%), still consolidating recent gains. Technically, copper appears to have completed a corrective three-wave pullback at the August $3.9615 low from the May $4.88 high. A break/close above trend line resistance at $4.50 would likely see a retest and break of the $4.88 high.

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seen bit of further weakness ahead . ohmy.gif weirdsmiley.gif



 
 


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