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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Sep 12 2021, 11:34 AM
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U.S. Market


The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back for three straight sessions, with each staging a downside reversal to close the week. The S&P 500 is now sitting just above its 50-DMA (4,424), a level that has acted as consistent, but now obvious support over the entirety of the year. The Nasdaq is now trading just above its 21-DMA (15,081), with the next level of support at 14,896, which may coincide with a rising 50-DMA (14,826). The distribution day count stands at two and three, respectively, with no expiration next week.



Overall breadth narrowed with all sectors closing down this week led lower by six sectors that declined 2% or more, including Transportation, Health Care, and Technology. Consumer Cyclical and Retail led, with declines of less than 1%. Transportation and Energy are now trading 2-3% below their respective 50-DMA. The best performing industry groups over the past week included Coal, Oil & Gas E&P, Lodging, Leisure Svcs, Home Furnishings, Ships, and Super Regional Banks. The worst performing groups included Jewelry, Cannabis, Generic Drugs, Miners, Super Markets, Plastics, and Rails. 49% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA and 72% are trading above their respective 200-DMA, compared with 66% and 79%, respectively, last week. 62% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, compared with 79% last week.

We recommend a patient approach to increasing risk given Friday’s action. Look for indices to hold and rally from near-term levels of support first before adding risk. Thus far, the majority of leading ideas remain above individual levels of logical support, though many did pull back sharply to close the week and may begin forming new bases.

Developed Markets


Twenty-two developed markets lost 0.6% on average during the week. Twelve markets are in a Confirmed Uptrend, eight markets are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and two markets are in a Rally Attempt.



The iShares Developed Market Index (EFA) lost 1.1% this week, closing lower in the last three days of trading. It pulled back from all-time highs, and after being moved a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt in the prior week. The index continues to trade near all-time highs and added two distribution days this week.
Key Developed Markets



EMEA



The Stoxx 600 closed 1.1% lower this week, falling for a second week from all-time highs. It is approaching 50-DMA support. This week, Norway was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend, while Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland were downgraded to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Of the 17 indices we cover, seven are in an Uptrend Under Pressure and the remaining are in a Confirmed Uptrend.



This week, the 16 European markets traded mostly negative and lost 1.0% on average. The only gainers were Israel (+1.8%) and the Netherlands (+0.4%). Top losers included Portugal (-3.2%), Belgium (-2.5%), Switzerland (-1.8%), Denmark (-1.7%), and Spain (-1.7%).

Emerging Markets


Twenty-four emerging markets lost 0.4% on average during the week. Nineteen markets are in a Confirmed Uptrend, including three in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Three markets are in a Rally Attempt, while two are in a Downtrend.



The iShares Emerging Market Index (EEM) lost 1.2% this week, reversing after two weeks of strong gains as it ran into resistance near the 40-DMA. It is 10% off highs and in a Rally Attempt.

Key Emerging Markets



APAC



This week, APAC markets traded in a mix and gained 0.1% on average. Top gainers were China (+3.6%), the Philippines (+1.1%), Pakistan (+0.50%), and India (+0.30%). Top losers were South Korea (-2.40%), Thailand (-0.90%), Malaysia (-0.80%), Indonesia (-0.50%), and Taiwan (-0.20%).
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from WILLIAM O’NEIL+CO!!! DYOR as always!!


 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 08:42 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 9 2021, 07:42 AM

Every day seems to bring a new record as equities race to the heavens while the economic picture on the ground looks significantly less cheery. Since late last year when the Dow recovered its pandemic crash losses, records have been broken like clockwork. But every once in awhile, the sound of growling bears echoes through the woods, a sign that some on Wall Street are betting the party is about to end. This is one of those times.


flashed yellow lights??? unsure.gif




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nipper
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 07:42 AM
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ASX futures down 35 points or 0.5 per cent to 7478 near 7am AEST
  • AUD -0.2% to 73.68 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -0.2% to $US46,247.93
  • On Wall St: Dow -0.2% ; S&P 500 -0.1% ; Nasdaq -0.6%
  • In New York: BHP -1.5% ; Rio -1.4% ; Atlassian +0.02%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.1% ; FTSE -0.8% ; CAC -0.9% ; DAX -1.5%
  • Spot gold ; down 0.1% to $US1792.63/oz
  • Brent crude +1.3% to $US72.61 a barrel
  • US oil +1.3% to $US69.21 a barrel
  • Iron ore ; down 4.2% to $US132.19 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.22% ; Australia 0.00%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.81% ; Australia 0.68%
  • 10year yield: US 1.34% ; Australia 1.29% ; Germany -0.33%




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 8 2021, 02:51 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 31 2021, 09:44 AM

Warren Buffett's favourite market indicator has surged to a record high of 142 per cent, signalling US and international shares are heavily overpriced and could plummet in the months ahead.

The global version of the Buffett indicator takes the combined market capitalisation of the world's publicly traded shares and divides it by global gross domestic product. A reading above 100 per cent indicates the global stock market is overvalued relative to the world economy.
QUOTE
BOOM! Global stocks have gained another $US1.6 trillion [$2 trillion] in market capitalisation this week, an analyst tweeted on Sunday. Equities now worth $US120.3 trillion, highest in history. Global stock market cap now equal to 142 per cent of world GDP, an alltime high as well, he added.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Aug 31 2021, 09:44 AM
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Revised Australian GDP data for the second quarter will be released this week. It could well be lower than the previous estimate. What is certain, is that it is pretty much immaterial. The AFR today calls it the risk of a 'surprise' recession. There is nothing surprising about it at all.

Australia is in Recession, Q3, Q4, and possibly into Q1 next year as well.

The rolling over of the Australian economy was already in place, as forecast, before the resumption of lockdowns.

The damage to the economy is already permanent.

There is no super spend. No further need for renovations No broad Jobkeeper. That so helped those in need, while creating a profit windfall for some. The targeted measures now in place are more appropriate, but some are slipping through the cracks.

The ultimate damage however, is being done by the psychological impact on small and medium sized businesses and families. The main employers of the nations workforce. Many will not be coming back, regardless of eventual re-openings.

Back to school in October for NSW? How will that be possible, if children become very ill and are even hospitalised? If this trend were to develop further. We already see early signs. In which case, there will be no early return to school.

This is not an argument for or against lockdowns as a strategy. It is merely an assessment of the likely force of Delta and potential re-thinking of government policies on the matter.

The Australian Recession can turn into a Depression.

Not the most probable scenario, and not my forecast, but while others see risk of recession, I can see we are already there, and the risk is far greater still, than people can accept or acknowledge.

There has been a complete failure at the Federal and State level to understand just how damaging the current situation is to the long term outlook.

We will come through this, and things will get better. The pace of that recovery will however be slower than any of us would like. The recovery will not be a rebound of the likes previously experienced. It will be a long haul, and at times a struggle.
Especially, as this situation is not in isolation. The rest of the world has renewed problems too. As a trading nation, with harsh domestic lock-downs, our economy is already on its knees.

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that is little too dark don't you guys think???? unsure.gif but one thing for sure to me is that NSW gov. mismanaged our state big time!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 23 2021, 09:26 AM
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O’Neil market conditions look positive, with the majority still in an uptrend, which has persisted since March 2020.
Underlying important areas of weakness:
U.S. small caps: 70% of all U.S. stocks, IWM testing 200-DMA, 8% off highs.
Japan: 25% of EFA and most cyclically-exposed market, 12% off highs, below 40-WMA.
China/Hong Kong: more than 30% of EEM, both below 40-WMA, 20% off highs.
Taiwan: 15% of EEM, testing 40-WMA, 9% off highs.
Korea: 13% of EEM, below 40-WMA, 8% off highs.
Brazil: 6% of EEM, below 40-WMA, 11% off highs.
Except U.S. small caps, all are heavily tied to China, which is the largest trading partner for each.
Basically half of global coverage (by total number of stocks) is weak, but from the perspective of market conditions and capped weighted global indices like the VT, it looks more positive.
Standouts in U.S. large growth; European markets Denmark, Switzerland, France, and the Netherlands; and emerging markets India, Hungary, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.

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nipper
post Posted: Aug 11 2021, 09:50 AM
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into reporting season, and the markets are pushing on
ASX futures up 17 points or 0.2 per cent to 7480 T

  • AUD : +0.2% to 73.47 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net down 0.3% to $US45,549.03
  • On Wall St: Dow +0.5% ; S&P 500 +0.1% ; Nasdaq -0.5%
  • In New York: BHP +1.3% ; Rio +1.6% ; Atlassian -2.5%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.3% ; FTSE +0.4% ; CAC +0.1% ; DAX +0.2%
  • Spot gold flat at $US1729.91/oz
  • Brent crude +2.6% to $US70.84 a barrel
  • US oil +3.1% to $US68.53 a barrel
  • Iron ore down 5.8% to $US162.44 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.24% ; Australia 0.04%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.84% ; Australia 0.63%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.35% ; Australia 1.19% ; Germany -0.46%




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Aug 6 2021, 10:39 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/stock-marke...close-news.html

Dow futures jump after better-than-expected jobs report


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seems nothing can stop this bull market!!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 4 2021, 09:21 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/08/03/thi...-not-different/

Of course, there’s no reason for future returns to look exactly like the past. But the historical evidence suggests that even if now turns out to be a bad time to buy into global stock markets in aggregate, it needn’t necessarily be a bad time to buy value. Value as a style can behave very differently from the broader market, and that can be a really powerful diversifier for client portfolios.

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it's from our own shacafe
i tent to agree with the value idea. it's just me though. we can see how people get reward from likes of AFTERPAY eg... these days. weirdsmiley.gif

for me i like to stick with value, because i trade through dot com boom, i saw it first hand.



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 27 2021, 09:28 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/26/dra...arkets-for-six/

Dragon’s Tail Whacks Asian Markets for Six

The CSI 300 – which contains the top blue chips of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell 3.2% to a level not seen since last December. It was down 4.4% at one stage and is now down more than 6% for the year so far.

The Shanghai market lost 2.4% (and is down 1% for the year so far) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed close to 4% in value at one stage ended the day down 3.5%. The Hang Seng has lost close to 4% so far this year with most of that loss coming on Monday.

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chinese commies gonna tighten up for those big tech name, but that is not main cause , i reckon it is due to US and CHINA ---the second time meeting didn't go well, so marketers with "get out first , ask question later", also a punishment for the commies, they are still poor can't defend they are financial system!! imho though.



 
 


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