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Melbourne Cup Tips
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 03:03 PM
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In Reply To: cooderman's post @ Nov 7 2017, 02:56 PM

yes indeed. (won't see this little attempt being paraded around town as giving the 'edge' to portfolio returns, on an outright or even risk/ reward matrix) ... ("We can lose money in ways you have never even thought of" doesn't really cut it?!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
cooderman
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 02:56 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2017, 09:58 AM

They may have to tweak their model for next year, or use a dartboard.


Attached File  Mc.JPG ( 92.78K ) Number of downloads: 6


 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 09:58 AM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Nov 7 2017, 09:32 AM

QUOTE
And after plugging results from 7200 races into Macquarie Quant Team's "Halpha" model, which is usually used for picking sharemarket winners, and considering factors like each horse's age, weight, odds and past five runs, the team came up with two sets of results.

"There are the tips for glory hunters - those punters who just want to win - and the tips for the value hunters. "For punters who are out for gold and glory, we use the unbiased odds calculated by our updated Halpha model to pick horses with the highest likelihood of winning. Our top three are Almandin, Marmelo and Red Cardinal," Macquarie's team told clients, with Humidor and Johannes Vermeer ranked as the best of the rest.

"However, for value investors out for a bargain, the most undervalued horse is Max Dynamite. "In addition, Almandin and Red Cardinal are also cheap, despite the short odds. These horses are more likely to win than their odds suggest."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
Pendragon
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 09:32 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2017, 08:05 AM

Equally - people should avoid Red Cardinal.
It is my pick and I have not picked a winner for years!!
Good luck to all - and have fun.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE
the Melbourne Cup, don't back no 4 Tiberian, that's my pick and I only bet once a year. [cooderman]




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: cooderman  
 
balance
post Posted: Nov 2 2016, 02:19 PM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Nov 2 2016, 12:46 PM

Listening to the missus only twice in 2 years seems a reasonable trade off . tongue.gif



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  Pendragon  
 


early birds
post Posted: Nov 2 2016, 01:03 PM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Nov 2 2016, 12:46 PM

tongue.gif
c'mon pentragon, it's just a race of the year. everyone have bit of fun. even i lost bit of dough.

we will do better next year right?? don't forget gives tip here!!




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Pendragon
post Posted: Nov 2 2016, 12:46 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 1 2016, 04:03 PM

Should have listened to my wife.
She has backed the winner 2 years in a row!!

 
balance
post Posted: Nov 1 2016, 05:20 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 1 2016, 04:03 PM

Mrs B pulled the winner in her work sweep for a few dollars profit.

Don't lament too much triage. At least the owner, Lloyd Williams, is an Aussie as is the jockey. Brother in law of Michelle Payne, last years winning jockey.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 1 2016, 04:03 PM
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Posts: 12,283
Thanks: 1295


In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Nov 1 2016, 11:24 AM

No 20 is stuffed up. no luck there weirdsmiley.gif

Germany horse is better.



 
 


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