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QAN, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Today, 11:41 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 22 2019, 12:34 PM

Fuel costs once again impact FY19 results. SP up 3.63% @ $5.99/share - no doubt in part on back of further buybacks announced today
QUOTE
FY19 Key Group Financial Metrics
Underlying PBT1 ($M) 1,302 1,565 (17) Impacted by higher fuel, low AUD and other cost increases
Underlying Earnings per Share2 © 56.2 63.0 (11) Share buy-back helped to offset decrease in earnings
Statutory Profit Before Tax ($M) 1,265 1,352 (6.4) Gains on asset sales partially offset cost increases
Statutory Earnings per Share © 54.6 54.4 0.4 On-market share buy-back offset lower earnings
Rolling 12 month ROIC3 (%) 18.4 21.4 (3)pts Continued strong Group ROIC
Revenue ($M) 17,966 17,128 4.9
Operating cash flow ($M) 2,807 3,413 (18)
Net debt4 ($B) 4.7 4.9 4.1 Low net debt provides financial flexibility
Unit Revenue5 (RASK) 8.85 8.40 5.3
Total unit cost6 (c/ASK) 7.99 7.37 (8.4) Total unit cost impacted by higher AUD fuel prices
Ex-fuel unit cost7 (c/ASK) 5.40 5.37 (0.6)
Available Seat Kilometres8 (ASK) (M) 151,430 152,428 (0.7)
Revenue Passenger Kilometres9 (RPK) (M) 127,492 126,814 0.5


QUOTE
Key features of the Buy-Back
Target size Up to 79.7 million Shares (approximately 5.1 per cent of Qantas’ shares on issue)*.
However, Qantas reserves the right to vary the size of the Buy-Back or not buy
back any Shares.
Buy-Back Price Market Price x (1 – Final Discount).
The Buy-Back Price will be announced by Qantas on the Buy-Back Date, Monday,
4 November 2019.
Market Price The VWAP of Qantas ordinary shares sold over the five trading days up to and
including the Closing Date, calculated to four decimal places, as determined
by Qantas. The Market Price will be determined by Qantas as soon as practicable
after the ASX closes on the Closing Date.
Buy-Back Discount (Tender range) The Buy-Back Discount is the discount to the Market Price, at which Eligible
Shareholders may Tender Shares to Qantas during the Tender Period, within the
range of 10 per cent to 14 per cent (inclusive) at one per cent intervals. The maximum
discount allowed by the ATO is 14 per cent.
You may also select, from the options shown on the Tender Form, a Minimum Price
at which you are prepared to sell your shares, or a Final Price Tender, which is an offer
to sell your Shares at the Buy-Back Price determined by Qantas in accordance with
Section 1.1 of this Booklet.
Final Discount The Final Discount will be the discount level determined by Qantas, within the range
of 10 per cent to 14 per cent (inclusive) at one per cent intervals, which enables
Qantas to buy back the number of Shares that it determines to buy back (if any).
Tender Minimum If you hold more than 100 Shares, you must Tender a minimum of 100 Shares
in aggregate. You may tender different parcels of your Shares at different
Buy-Back Discounts.
If you hold 100 Shares or less you must Tender all of your Shares to participate
in the Buy-Back.
Capital Component of Buy-Back Price The ATO has indicated that the Capital Component will be $1.19.
For Australian tax purposes, the sale proceeds of the Shares for entities other than
companies will generally be taken to be the $1.19 Capital Component plus the amount
(if any) by which the CGT Value exceeds the Buy-Back Price.
Qantas expects this to be confirmed in the Class Ruling.
Dividend Component of Buy-Back Price The Buy-Back Price less the Capital Component, for Australian tax purposes only.
*For illustrative purposes, assuming a Buy-Back Price of $4.97 (being a 14 per cent discount to an assumed Market Price of $5.78),
the total spend by Qantas would be $396 million

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 20 2019, 03:25 PM
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Second most lucrative air route in the World.....
....... SYD-MEL ... For QF; according to this article
http://www.traveller.com.au/cash-cows-the-...e-routes-h1h9fa



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
balance
post Posted: Feb 23 2019, 07:01 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 22 2019, 12:34 PM

That's not a bad write up on QAN. One factor not covered is the cost of replacing an aging fleet. Their 737s are up to 17 years old as are the earlier 330s. The 747s are going slowly and 380s have been cancelled. There is no direct replacement for the 380 or 747.

Joyce afaik has not ordered a single aircraft for Qantas mainline since he took over. The current 787s were ordered by his predecessor and Joyce sent those fuel efficient 787s to jetstar and then complains that Qantas international is in terminal decline.
Orders for new jets ie Airbus 321NEO, 737 max, 777X and or the Airbus 350 variants need to come soon. With him sensibly bailing out of the remaining 380 orders they may have to buy another airbus product as a penalty, so possibly the 350s.

So in short I think they will face quite a capex bill for years to come with fuel prices creeping up.





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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
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Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
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The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: henrietta  mullokintyre  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 22 2019, 12:34 PM
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Qantas Better Watch the Bloat as Fuel Costs Rise
The carrier seeks to ramp up ultra-long-haul flights. That might not help the bottom line.

By David Fickling
February 22, 2019, 6:00 AM GMT+11
QUOTE
Fuel costs rose A$416 million ($296 million) in the first half, driving the carrier's key measure of underlying profit before tax to its biggest decline in four-and-a-half years, according to results announced Tuesday. The pain was particularly concentrated on longer overseas routes, which accounted for just over half of the increased kerosene spending.

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/...-haul-ambitions?
Total short positions as at 21 Feb 2019 = 0.31%
Shorts reported yesterday - not yet included
QUOTE
Thu 21st Feb, 2019 4,590,382 1,625,648,997 0.28% 19,152,469 23.97%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=qan
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: balance  
 
balance
post Posted: Feb 9 2019, 06:53 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 8 2019, 02:54 PM

Passengers love them but they are a maintenance hog and the early ones at least could not perform as they were supposed to. I think QAN were waiting for production to die before officially cancelling. This may signal they are thinking about other Airbus products given they have backed out of contracts.
The "Project Sunrise" springs to mind with the A350 in line for Sydney-NYC or Sydney-London non stop. Can't do it yet, but both Boeing and Airbus are working on it.




--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 8 2019, 02:54 PM
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Qantas officially cancels Airbus A380 order as manufacturer struggles to maintain production
Updated 42 minutes ago

QUOTE
Key points:
Qantas confirmed earlier suggestions its A380 fleet would remain at 12
It came after Emirates began talks with Airbus about switching its A380s for smaller models
Airbus began 2019 with a negative net total of 13 orders due to cancellations

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/qant...-order/10794000
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=qan
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: May 15 2018, 09:27 PM
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If you believe in stockpickers........

May 15 2018 at 6:00 PM
Updated May 15 2018 at 7:19 PM

QUOTE
Qantas, Sensata, Spicers: Eight top stock pickers name their favourite stocks

extract
QUOTE
"I think that analysts will be forced to upgrade their earnings in August. A lot of them are under-appreciating that there's been structural changes and there's not a cyclical recovery in the domestic airline market," he said.

"The second catalyst will be the payment of a fully franked dividend by Qantas, which we think could happen as soon as August."

Mr King noted that it had been about 10 years since Qantas paid a consistent fully franked dividend, which has seen the number of Australian shareholders on the register fall.

"We think once it starts paying a fully franked dividend – which we think could be as high as 40¢ a share – the stock price should recover a lot more as it attracts a lot more domestic shareholders onto the register."

That leads to the third potential share price catalyst, he said, which was inclusion in the MSCI index.

Last November, Qantas was deleted from the MSCI index because it had too many foreign shareholders.

"When that happened, the share price fell 30 per cent over the next couple of months. So we think it could easily go up another 30 per cent this November when it gets added to the MSCI index."

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20180515-h103pt



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: May 2 2018, 10:25 PM
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QAN share price flying, pardon the pun, today - $6.270 +0.470 (+8.10%) on the back of a positive trading update
QUOTE
QANTAS GROUP TRADING UPDATE – THIRD QUARTER FY18
Sydney, 2 May 2018
 Quarter Three Group Revenue up 7.5 per cent to $4.25 billion versus prior corresponding period.
 Expecting a full year record Underlying Profit Before Tax1 of between $1.55 billion and $1.60 billion.
 Six additional Dreamliners ordered for Qantas International and accelerated retirement of remaining
747s by end-2020.


QUOTE
“Qantas is on track to deliver another record full year result even though we’re facing a $200 million
increase in our total fuel bill in FY18,” said Mr Joyce.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=qan

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 26 2018, 08:06 PM
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Posts: 6,125
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Qantas's new Perth to London 17-hour flight in economy class

QUOTE
PLANE AWFUL Qantas flights direct from London to Perth – we reveal the hell of flying non-stop for 17 hours from Australia in economy on the UK’s longest route
Entering the 'familiar kingdom of screaming kids and aching bottoms' on the UK's longest flight

EXCLUSIVE
By Sun Travel Writer Jacob Lewis


https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/5894968/qan...-economy-class/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rog  
 
balance
post Posted: Jan 17 2018, 07:16 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 17 2018, 06:54 PM

The boss is worth every bit of his 25 million or so thumbdown.gif . Still flying old 747s across the Pacific. Great aircraft, but they are thirsty compared to late model big twins such as the 777 and 787.

The A380 maybe nice to fly on, but it too is a bit thirsty being a 4 engine behemoth.

While fuel remains relatively cheap they'll keep a core of 747s running.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
 


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