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ELK, ELK PETROLEUM LIMITED
davo22
post Posted: May 9 2011, 05:31 PM
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$115 mil available to develop Grieve, JV partner the $8.5bil Denbury resources, Elk retain 35%...

 
davo22
post Posted: Feb 22 2011, 10:47 AM
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In Reply To: OZGAZ's post @ Feb 8 2011, 08:40 AM

Neale Taylor just bought more on market as well!!! Only 5 weeks until their stated deadline to have a contract for Grieve funding.

 
OZGAZ
post Posted: Feb 8 2011, 08:40 AM
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In Reply To: davo22's post @ Feb 7 2011, 04:53 PM

See that Director Matt Healy more than doubled his holding in ELK adding another 658,000 shares - that has to say something

Cheers

Ozgaz



--------------------
Smile while TRADING it's only money... :)
 
davo22
post Posted: Feb 7 2011, 04:53 PM
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There is significant upside with funding. I expect Ryder to place a NPV10 on Grieve of around $370-$400mil based on their previous figures. Elk have stated they are looking to either JV or debt fund.

My thoughts, ballpark figures,

Low end scenario would see Elk pass 65% of grieve to a JV for free carry ($35mil) to first production. This scenario would see Elk maintain $1.60 NPV10 PS (per share) following which ELK would average approx 50cNPAT PS per annum over the first 6* years of production= $3PS. The JV partner would receive approx $210milNPV upfront for $35mil a significant portion of which would only need to be paid shortly before production commences. A very good scenario for the jv partner.

If a funder were willing to come onboard, Elk previously stated we may need to give them equity. Assuming we gave them 15mil shares in exchange for funding. They would instantly acquire $45mil NPV in Grieve + exposure to all other projects going forward inc Ash Creek. In return for lending Approx $100mil, only a small amount would be required initially with the rest being gradually drawn through to first production. Reflects $3NPV10 PS Average approx 85c NPAT per annum for the first 6 years of production =$5PS.

Of course there are a million different scenarios these are just two I put figures to. The outcome may of course be more or less favourable, but Elk certainly look to be in a great position. Matt could prove to be a very good asset during these negotiations. Plenty of upside to the shareprice

Cheers

*"about 80% of the recoverable oil would be produced within the first 5 to 6 years of production" Uniiversity of Wyoming report

 
davo22
post Posted: Feb 3 2011, 08:47 AM
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the future is looking extremely bright.

Previously we have seen massive rises on less significant announcements than the co2, yet we are drifting only about 20% higher since the announcement due to Elks lack of exposure within the investment community, however I expect this to change dramatically over the next few weeks/months. Elk is currently not on the radars of the general shareholding community due to previous form. However recently the board was cleared out due to shareholders concerns over the performance of the company. The current board is very well aligned to shareholders expectations and is already showing the results shareholders expect, Elk even made mention of shareholder input within the quarterly which is a good sign. I have spoken to a number of large holders since the co2 announcement and I might add they are all extremely happy with the progress and direction of the company over the last couple of months, that enthusiasm is not yet reflected by the smaller holders who may not follow as closely.


Current market cap around $23mil.

Going forward
Any day now..........
Ash creek should come online with 2 production wells, Elk are hoping for them to stabilise around 30bopd, however are likely to come online higher, based on expected flow rates and oilcuts #9 could be around 60bopd initially. Considering the lower Shannon has not been waterflooded then this should be a good performing formation. There are approx another 20 wells that could potentially be brought online. As part of the research into chemical flooding Ash Creek Elk need a core from the shannon formation. They already have 1 new well permit which is likley to be used for this purpose as it has added upside in that the well is higher on the structure and could contain pure oil, It would not surprise me if this kicked of around april/may. Based on expected fluid flow rates from the #1 well of upwards of 400bopd, this well could be significant in dramatically increasing cash flow. If the first 2 wells perform to expectations then I expect Elk to move straight to the other 2 wells previously identified as 1st stage workover wells within the next 6-8 weeks. 5mil barrels accessible.

Within the next 4 weeks......
Elk expect to have a feasibility study completed on Hereford. to access a net 15bcf of gas for power generation and associated Helium. If the study is positive it opens up a number of other drilling location and they can either market the project for JV or sale.

Within 8 weeks.........
With the co2 contract in place up to 23mil barrels becomes accesible. A finance JV deal expected within the coming 8 weeks which should significantly re-rate the company. Make no mistake a deal will be done with the party willing to offer the best terms. Ryder Scott put an NPV of over $300mil on Grieve at an Oilprice of $85US. Currently Nymex futures suggest the period of production will be a few cents short of $100. considering the current market cap I suspect only attributes around $10mil to the project there is significant upside. Companies with these sort of reserves have market caps in the hundreds of millions of dollars once producing.

Within the next 4months
Elk should have farmed out the Niobrara as they are expecting to be in a position to drill during Aus winter. Being a horizontal well with plenty of fractures you can bet the punters will get on board and give the shareprice a serious shove. Last time Elk did a verticle well punters added 30c to the shareprice. Grieve is 3000acres, $3000 an acre has been seen recently for Niobrara acreage.


Certainly the next 6 months look to be very exciting for Elk and it is hard to see there wont be a significant re-rating in the short term.
Cheers

 
davo22
post Posted: Jan 27 2011, 10:44 PM
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Todays announcement should prove to be a company maker, announcements don't get much better. 20+mil barrels can potentially be unlocked with this agreement. New management have passed their first test with flying colours and it bodes very well for the future. I heard some very positive feedback about ELKs directors today from a very good source and it certainly gave me a lot of confidence going forward. I bought a few more today and expect a re-rating over the next few weeks as investors absorb this announcement and Ash creek comes online. Give it a few days to clear those looking for an exit and we should move up. All coming together very nicely and I beleive we now have a management team who will put shareholders interests first which is more than can be said for 90% of small cap oil and gas companys. $300mil NPV vs $22mil Mkt cap gives plenty of room to deal on a jv and still reward shareholders in a big way.Congratulations to all those who hold.Cheers

 


davo22
post Posted: Aug 30 2009, 07:48 PM
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just wondering who here holds ELK???? And are there any holders with a reasonable sized holding around???
Cheers

 
davo22
post Posted: Jul 6 2009, 05:03 PM
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In Reply To: Brendan's post @ Jul 6 2009, 11:15 AM

yes...nothing worth reading at this stage......

 
Brendan
post Posted: Jul 6 2009, 11:15 AM
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In Reply To: davo22's post @ May 10 2009, 07:19 PM

Anyone following the Grieve Field well updates ?

 
davo22
post Posted: May 10 2009, 07:19 PM
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By now everyone should have received their Proxy form....Shareholders should vote AGAINST all resolutions..

Both the 15% placement and the SPP are set in stone and cannot be stopped or changed.......we are voting to express our dissatisfaction with directors at their blatant disregard for company strategy and their linning up to fill their own pockets at the expense of mum and dad investors!!!! eg A Rigg is going to buy 5.5X the number of shares in the placement as he has bought on market and increase his holding from 150,000 to 983,334 shares.......


Resolution1 would give directors the ability to place 15% or 13.5mil more shares at a discount to institutions and sophisticated investors.....it would also double to allow them to place shares to directors if resolution2 fails..

Resolution2 would allow directors to place a couple of million shares to themselves....

Resolution 3-6 is where shareholders vote on individual directors receiving shares from resolutions 1 + 2

It is only fair that directors suffer dilution like many of ELKs shareholders will, especially considering it is their poor performance that has resulted in the current situation.....

ELK has portrayed the current economic environment as the reason they were unable to do deals...RUBBISH!!!!!....
Managements own valuations as presented in the investor presentation, released while they were out there trying to dump the company with institutional investors at 9c per share, when current futures prices are used(prices that have the current economic downturn and wyoming discount factored in) value the Grieve chemical flood at approx $4 a share......now I certainly dont expect NPV to be paid especially in this environment, but ELK have flogged the entire company of at only 1/40th or 2.5% of the NPV of 1 project...
What a scam!!!!!

and what about that company strategy???? from the investor presentation released while ELK were in trading halt dumping shares at 9c..........."To form JVs for development and exploration; extract value and share risk"
.....no mention of diluting the heck out of shareholders through capital raisings......
from investor presentation Jan 2009........"Seek farm outs to reduce risk and provide exploration funding".."Last capital raising March 2006"......Dodgy!!!!!!! and that last capital raising raised $11.7mil @65c to develop the upper sands, they spent all the money without drilling the $800,000 well to test them!!!!!!!!!!

So this might be shareholders last chance to keep some form of control over ELK.....if management get away with this there is nothing to stop them turning around later in the year and for example, announcing a 1;1 rights issue at say 30c.....divide the number of shares you have by 3 and put a $sign in front and ask yourself whether you would be willing to put that amount of money into directors hands to avoid dilution, for most of you I suspect not.....

SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD VOTE AGAINST ALL RESOLUTIONS!!!!!!!!

 
 


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