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AUT, AURORA OIL GAS LIMITED
flower
post Posted: Feb 7 2014, 09:32 AM
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In Reply To: bam_bamm's post @ Feb 7 2014, 08:57 AM

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I bet you are kicking yourself now flower (if you dont hold that is)


Sure am, not holding---- decided against it, that's the way the cookie crumbles though, didn't hear the usual jungle drum beat about this outcome. What is most interesting is that Baytex will pay such a massive premium, augers well for any future M/A activity which is surely coming as funding gets ever tighter. Also of interest is the fact that even those very good Q results failed to increase AUT's SP, it took an outsider to see the inherent value lurking within.

Proposed Acquisition by Baytex Energy at $4.10 :
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01489555



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bam_bamm
post Posted: Feb 7 2014, 08:57 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 22 2014, 10:17 AM

I bet you are kicking yourself now flower (if you dont hold that is)

Aurora looks to have been acquired by Baytex, for $4.10, currently trading at $2.62.



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flower
post Posted: Jan 22 2014, 10:17 AM
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Key quarter-on-quarter results:

9% increase in revenue from Q3 2013 (40% increase from Q4 2012).

 15% increase in production volume (46% increase from Q4 2012).

 15.6 new net wells were placed on production, including six Aurora operated wells.

 11.8 net wells were spudded, including three wells on Aurora operated acreage.

Quarterly Activities Summary
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01484217

Q report within 10 days, thought about AUT as pre result trade, glad did nothing about it 3% profit would have been too tight, market simply does not want know about even good results.
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flower
post Posted: Nov 28 2013, 08:36 PM
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AUT looks mildly positive, 10% profit trade possible?
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flower
post Posted: Nov 19 2013, 07:18 PM
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In Reply To: veeone's post @ May 5 2011, 07:46 AM

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Early Mover Advantage Starts To Pay Off For Aurora Oil & Gas As Its Eagle Ford Shale Wells Reveal The Quality Of Its Acreage Position
When Aurora Oil & Gas drilled its first well in the Sugarkane field in Texas back in 2005 nobody suspected the ASX-quoted small cap would six years later be a much larger cap company with a front seat in one of the hottest shale plays in North America. That play is, of course, the Eagle Ford Shale in southern Texas and the reason no one suspected Aurora would present such a key investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to this liquids-rich shale is because the company's first wells here were actually targeting the gas-bearing Austin Chalk formation.


AUT may be worth placing on watch lists at current prices.

Dual listed in Toronto, and now in production, with a hefty forward work programme.
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veeone
post Posted: May 5 2011, 07:46 AM
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Early Mover Advantage Starts To Pay Off For Aurora Oil & Gas As Its Eagle Ford Shale Wells Reveal The Quality Of Its Acreage Position
When Aurora Oil & Gas drilled its first well in the Sugarkane field in Texas back in 2005 nobody suspected the ASX-quoted small cap would six years later be a much larger cap company with a front seat in one of the hottest shale plays in North America. That play is, of course, the Eagle Ford Shale in southern Texas and the reason no one suspected Aurora would present such a key investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to this liquids-rich shale is because the company's first wells here were actually targeting the gas-bearing Austin Chalk formation.
Those initial wells also identified the potential of the deeper shale play and encouraged the company to build a lease position in the area, giving it real early mover advantage in an area where acreage parcels are now changing hands for increasingly inflated prices; M&A activity remains strong with US$5.5 billion in transactions announced since June 2010. Aurora, which is now dual listed on the ASX and TSX, has working interests ranging from 9.1 per cent to 36.4 per cent in four Areas of Mutual Interest in the Sugarkane field (Sugarloaf, Longhorn, Ipanema and Excelsior) which together amount to a contiguous gross acreage position of 73,000 acres in the heart of the Eagle Ford Shale, a play which is reckoned to be the largest US oil discovery since Prudhoe Bay with gross reserve potential of 25 billion boe.
Early production results show the company is sitting in a particularly prolific section of the EFS. Shale plays are characterized by high initial production rates and then swift declines before stabilizing at a lower rate for many years (more than 20 years). Early results from the Aurora wells show average production rates over 60 days are consistently around 800 to 1,000 boepd, with an average payback of six months on an US$8.5 million well – and average production rates still well above 500 boepd on payback. .
Work in recent years has effectively derisked the project, which has now moved from exploration to development, with the company funded for a 60-well development programme this year. Last month's reserves report from Houston-based Netherland, Sewell & Associates Inc, based on 15 producing wells, only confirmed this transition, giving the company total 1P proved reserves of 6.3 million barrels of crude oil condensate and 26.5 bcf of natural gas, 2P reserves of 12.5 million barrels of crude oil condensate and 57.7 bcf of natural gas, and 3P reserves of 53.3 million barrels of crude oil condensate and 177.5 bcf of natural gas. This represents a 369 per cent increase in 1P reserves since the previous report, and with 60 wells planned for this year, the company expects the majority of the possible reserves to transfer into the 2P category by year end.
Aurora expects this development programme to yield a net production rate of 2,800 boepd by mid-year and 5,000 boepd by year-end, with more than 80 per cent of the forecast revenues to come from liquids (this is the true beauty of EFS economics; indeed larger EFS operator Chesapeake Energy Corp believes it is "quickly developing into the most profitable of all shale plays"). Aurora's NSAI reserves report estimates peak net production of 29,000 boepd (before royalties) in 2019.
Jon Bishop, an analyst with Perth-based Euroz Securities, which rates the company a Buy with a price target of A$4.50 a share, believes the production consistency of the Aurora wells demonstrate the quality of its acreage. "Sub-10 per cent month-on-month decline rates are exceptional and deliverability from these wells is underpinning best-in-play pay-backs," Bishop said in a recent note. "Consistency in results gives us a high degree of confidence for the economics of full-field development as well as growth to all reserves categories. Furthermore, we expect as AUT's acreage demonstrates profitability within the next 18mnths, AUT will earn a premium noting that its growth to reserves, production and cash flow is not compromised by geological risk and that field production decline is some 10 yrs away."
This upbeat assessment is echoed by analysts at Canada's TD Newcrest Securities, which rate the stock a Speculative Buy, describing the company as the "go-to name" for those seeking leverage to the Eagle Ford Shale, one of the most prospective liquids-rich plays in North America. Oilbarrel.com

 


veeone
post Posted: Aug 18 2010, 02:21 PM
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Aurora Oil & Gas Limited ("Aurora") is pleased to provide the following summary of the recently completed maiden reserves certification that has been independently carried out by the Houston based team of Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. ("NSAI").

The following reserve allocations have been made with an effective date of 1
st July 2010:

1P – 1,523,000 bbls, 8.3 Bcf and NPV(10) US$70.2 million

2P – 4,317,000 bbls, 24.9 Bcf and NPV(10) US$190.1 million

3P – 33,207,000 bbls, 138.0 Bcf and NPV(10) US$986.2 million

Mr Jon Stewart, Aurora Executive Chairman, commented that "This maiden reserve statement provides independent verification of the value proposition for Aurora and the rapid de-risking that has resulted from the drilling program to date. We have a clear and agreed drilling plan going forward, for which we are funded, which will see the majority of the possible reserves moved into the proved and probable categories through the next 12 – 18 months. Significant increases in production and cash flow to Aurora from the development of this world class on-shore asset will continue to grow shareholder value for some time."



 
veeone
post Posted: Aug 12 2010, 12:09 PM
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Aurora Oil & Gas Tapping Into North America's Unconventional Gas Potential
Australia's Aurora Oil & Gas has thrown its hat into North America's booming unconventional gas industry. It holds an interest in the Sugarkane gas and condensate field in Texas where it is currently working up reserves figures through production drilling and testing work. The ASX-listed company expects to issue a full reserves report later this month as it seeks to show followers why it is so keen on this area, which forms part of the emerging Eagle Ford Shale trend.
But things have certainly not been all that straightforward as the company went into survival mode during the financial crisis that erupted in mid-2008. It is only in the past year or so that things have started to motor following a key farm-out deal with Hilcorp Energy, the fourth largest private exploration and production company in the US and an experienced shale operator.
Now, with drilling activity firmly underway, things are starting to get interesting.
At the end of June, Aurora successfully raised A$41 million through a placing and share purchase plan to support its US shale drilling ambitions.
It has been a busy time since then with a 60-day production test at the Rancho Grande-1H well. This well averaged 950 barrels of condensate per day with 2.7 million cubic feet of gas per day during the two-month period, the company announced on August 5. "The Ranche Grande production figures continue to be amongst the best reported across the trend," Aurora said in its statement.
Analysts at Aussie brokers Hartleys agreed: "This is an outstanding flow rate for Rancho Grande as the well has experienced only modest decline over its first 60 days. It originally flowed at 1,170 barrels of condensate per day and 3.2 million cubic feet of gas per day." It added that the production represents gross revenue of around US$5m for the first 60 days.
Drilling has also now been completed on the Kowalik-1R well. Drilled to a depth of 18, 132 ft, providing approximately 6,500 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir, it is the longest horizontal well Aurora has yet participated in. The well will now be fracture stimulated in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Shale trend "in due course", the company reported.
It means Aurora continues to put the bad times behind it, seeing momentum build on its unconventional gas plays. With money in the bank following the June financing, it is well placed to continue its drilling plans with its partners and potentially acquire additional acreage in the area.
The delay in announcing reserves figures -- originally due for release in July -- may not be a bad thing either, in light of the recent drilling results. According to Hartleys, the delay may even prove to be positive, potentially leading to bigger numbers.
"We are expecting circa 50 million barrels of oil equivalent in total reserves (1P, 2P, 3P combined)," a Hartleys brokers note stated.
Oilbarrel.com

 
veeone
post Posted: Jun 24 2010, 08:04 AM
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Aurora Oil & Gas Raises A$41 Million To Support Shale Play Ambitions
Aurora Oil & Gas has announced a A$41 million fundraising through a placing and share purchase plan to support its shale drilling ambitions in Texas. The ASX-listed company has placed 46.67 million shares at a price of A$0.75 per share to raise A$35 million, bringing a number of new institutional shareholders onto the register, plus a fully underwritten share purchase plan, at the same issue price, to raise the remainder of the balance.
The proceeds will be used fully to fund the company's planned drilling programme in the Sugarkane field in Texas, which is part of the emerging Eagle Ford Shale trend. The money will also provide some financial flexibility to accelerate the drilling or acquire additional acreage in the area.
This is proving to be an exciting project for Aurora and its backers, putting the small cap company on the frontline of the booming unconventional gas industry in North America. This has been reflected in a share price that has more than doubled since the start of the year, to stand at more than 80 cents a share this week. Analysts are betting that rise will continue as ongoing drilling drives up production and puts the oil junior on the radar of reserves-hungry predators, willing to play a premium for a commercial shales play. Aurora has bagged itself a participating interest in 50,000 acres of the liquids-rich Sugarkane gas and condensate field in South Texas, which has happily turned out to be an Eagle Ford shale play, one of the more economic shales in the US. The project wasn't going anywhere fast, however, as the company went into survival mode during the financial crisis and it has only started to motor over the past nine months following a key farm-out deal with Hilcorp Energy, the fourth largest private E&P company in the US and an experienced shale operator. Hilcorp agreed to carry the small cap company through ten wells, a deal that reduced Aurora's stake in the Sugarloaf portion of the field to 10 per cent, in the Longhorn portion to 25 per cent and the Ipanema portion to 30 per cent. This is a much more appropriate cost exposure given the potential scale of the development – there are 500 well locations on the acreage, with 50 expected to be drilled by the end of 2011. This drilling programme should deliver some serious data about the potential of the shales, which can prove difficult and costly to develop. Some big money has been piling into the Eagle Ford shale, including big hitters like ConocoPhillips and Petrohawk, and their drilling experiences are proving invaluable: wells are now being drilled cheaper, with higher initial production rates and slower decline rates (an important factor in shale plays, where first year production declines can be 80 per cent or more). The well results from nearby acreage has also started to confirm that Aurora's project lies in one of the sweeter spots of the trend, with a high condensate ratio and high pressure rates. The condensate is important, particularly given the current low gas price regime in the US. Speaking at an oilbarrel.com event in March 2010, Stewart said about 70 to 80 per cent of the value of the production comes from condensate, even though this is a gas field. "We break even at a gas price of below US$2.70 because of the condensate ratio," said the Aurora boss. "It means we are largely immune to the lower gas prices." The joint venture partners are busy with the initial ten well programme under the Hilcorp farm-out. Earlier this month, the company released details of the Rancho Grande-1H well in the Sugarloaf area of the field, which flowed at an initial test rate of 3.19 million cubic feet of gas per day and 1,170 barrels of condensate per day on a restricted choke setting. The company is choking back the well to see if a limited reservoir drawdown can improve decline rates and the ultimate recovery from the wells.
This is part of the ongoing trial and error of process of optimising the development plan to drain the shale rocks effectively. The company is learning as it goes, both from its own experiences and those of nearby operators: it recently, for example, advised investors that it would redrill the Kowalik-1 well because that earlier well didn't use the completion that is proving more effective on more recent wells. Some of the more recent wells are certainly delivering some strong production numbers. The first 30 production figures from the Morgan-1H well indicate average daily production equivalent to 19.97 million cf/d, with the Easley-1H well flowing 10.13 million cfe/d. The company said these production numbers were "very encouraging for the economics of the field". The company reckons it could have up to 50 wells on production by the end of 2011, which should deliver 3,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to the company. By FY 2013, analysts expect the company to be generating net production of 5,500 boepd and possibly double that by FY 2015. Analyst Jon Bishop of Perth-based Euroz Securities said the company's equity in the project could see it become a "significant oil and gas producer." "In addition, growing production will support steady growth to reserves, which will make for an increasingly attractive target to larger operators looking to enter or increase their presence in the play," said Bishop, who in May initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a price target of A$1.02 a share. "On this basis and given the current market capitalisation we feel that AUT is significantly undervalued." Oilbarrel.com

 
gerkin02
post Posted: Apr 25 2010, 09:23 PM
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In Reply To: veeone's post @ Mar 18 2010, 09:06 AM

Well things are on the move here now,with possibly 9-10 wells in production by years end.

Possibly looking at a significant re-rating by end 2010.

All the best.


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