Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

1565 Pages (Click to Jump) V  « < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 20 2018, 10:41 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


traders who find themselves stuck in a positional thinking, feel at odds with themselves, those are the times to take a break
$xjo cfd's have been 80% longs last two sessions on a consistent decline in price .....this happens a lot, pre-empting direction

here's a good listen from a pro trader#FT71

https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders/08...er-71-interview




--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 19 2018, 07:30 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,492
Thanks: 2011


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 19 2018, 07:24 AM

QUOTE
US 10-year Treasury yields hit a two-month low late last week, and the tide could be turning for the Treasury market with a test of 3 per cent appearing imminent. On Friday in New York, the yield shed 5 basis points to trade at 3.06 per cent, a near 20-basis-point drop in a little more than a week, returning the yield to its lowest since mid-September as hawkish expectations fade.

As with the recent rout in equities, the rally in Treasuries - prices and yields move inversely - reflects a rethinking on the outlook for both global growth as well as US growth and whether the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to pause its gradual lifting of interest rates.

Investors previously sceptical that the Fed would slow its rate hike pace in 2019 are suddenly repositioning for a halt. The Fed, though, is still on track to lift next month..................
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/us...20181117-h1808v



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 19 2018, 07:24 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,339
Thanks: 1320


If an everyday investor wanted to beat the market, they could do worse than watch business television every day for three months, and do the opposite of whatever they hear.

It goes to what Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott says is the power of narratives, and their ability to distort prices. But it's also reflective of our most basic instincts for self-preservation, except, it can be wise to resist the urge to run with the herd.

"The market is driven by narratives and shifting narratives," Arnott says. "Everybody wants to buy a bargain but they want to buy a bargain with no bad news. It doesn't exist; bargains exist because of fear."

He gives the following example: imagine the jeweller Tiffany & Co put up a banner reading: "special pricing: come in and enjoy our 20 per cent price hike". And people "bashed down the doors to get in, that's the investment world".

"Everything 20 per cent off'? "People say, 'oh, get me out of here'."

Research Affiliates is an investment manager based in Newport Beach, California, that has become well known as an authoritative voice on smart beta, as well as frequently expanding on the other forces of change in financial markets.

Arnott says that the best predictor they have found for mutual fund performance is trailing three-year returns. "You want to beat the market by 1 per cent a year? Buy only funds that are in the bottom decile on trailing three-year returns."

One of the lessons for retail investors is don't chase performance, he urges.

"That's actually not hard for a retail investor to do. Just watch financial TV and if you hear the same thing for three months straight, that's a narrative that's taken on a life of its own, do the opposite." Buying high and selling low is the enemy of successful investing, he declares.

The fund manager is critical of people who conflate alpha (excess return) and investment style.

"It's alpha if you anticipate it and you buy it, and when the profits have been realised you take chips off the table – that's alpha. If it's just a matter of you're a value manager and you win when value wins and you lose when value loses, that's not alpha. That's a management style that goes into and out of favour."

Accepting "alpha" at face value poses another problem: a manager's returns might be OK, but the end investor's returns won't because "they're going to pile in when value's winning and liquidate when value's losing".

Value has struggled, as any manager would admit.

"Value always trades cheap but it doesn't always trade really cheap. That's something people often overlook. When value outperformed tremendously after the tech bubble in 2000 to 2007, part of that outperformance was value stocks going from preposterously cheap to a modest discount. The market does a beautiful job of identifying which companies deserve a premium and which don't."

An investor can never be certain what a stock is worth today, but they can be certain what it was worth historically.

BHP Billiton, for example: look back 40 years, determine the subsequent cash flows, discount them back, and determine what the stock would have been really worth with the ability to see the future. ("To the best of my knowledge we were the first to do that and the last," Arnott says).

This exercise shows there is a 50 per cent correlation between the premium or discount the market paid for a stock, and the premium or discount the stock deserved.

"The market does a very good job; value stocks generally with a few exceptions deserve to be value stocks," he says.

Here's what the market gets wrong: growth stocks are priced at about twice the premium they should be, and value stocks on average over time, are priced at twice the discount they should be.

"The growth-value cycle has a predictive component, that is to say, when value is trading really cheap as it was in 2000, subsequent performance for value is spectacular. When it's trading rich as it was in 2007, subsequent performance disappoints."

Today, value is cheaper than normal, but not as cheap as in 2000.

Through history, growth commands 3.5 times the valuation of value. "When it gets to 2.5 times watch out. You might think value being priced at 40 per cent growth is a big spread – it's not." Value subsequently underperforms.

"When it gets to 4.5 times it almost always wins. So where are we now? We're at 4.5 to 1."

The exception is that emerging markets are at 5.5 to 1 (versus 3.5 to 1) or, "today's low hanging fruit". You can buy half the world's GDP for 9 times earnings, Arnott says.

"People are fearful of emerging markets. The narrative is that Trump's tariffs will create headwinds and uncertainty, the Federal Reserve raising rates, quantitative tightening. Pardon me, but the developed world has way more addiction to debt than emerging economies."

Two and a half years ago, Arnott wrote the article, "How can smart beta go horribly wrong?".

"It was hugely controversial. But, suppose I'd written 'How could stockpicking go wrong?' and advanced the thesis that a stock has soared and its underlying fundamentals have not, and if there's any mean reversion watch out. If I wrote that paper, people would have said, 'don't be stupid, everybody knows this'."

Smart beta is simply an array of strategies that break the link between the price of a stock and its weight in a portfolio. Today it represents "an incredible array of products and ideas, some of which are smart and some of which are downright stupid".

"How can momentum be smart beta if you're not only paying attention to price, but reinforcing it by putting more in whatever's the most expensive? Momentum is the antithesis of a smart beta strategy.Quality can be smart beta if you weight the stocks in a fashion that ignores price. Momentum doesn't ignore price, it's driven by price."

Research Affiliates is an advocate of long-horizon mean reversion.

"Momentum on average works but it's very short term. High-momentum stocks win a few months, then lose, and eventually cross over and underperform. So if you have a momentum strategy the first hurdle you have to overcome is trading costs; they can gobble up your entire alpha very easily. The second hurdle is if you don't have a sell discipline, you're in trouble.

"That's why long horizon mean reversion works, and momentum works."

Incredibly, while momentum has worked successfully since 2010, Arnott can't find a single mutual fund with momentum in its name that has beaten the market over that time. "You're missing something big and what you're missing I think is a lack of a sell discipline. And your trading costs will eat you alive anyway."

Finally, in these dark days for value, Arnott offers some advice about the impulse to shift into the competing factors: quality, momentum, low volatility and small cap.

"Out of the five biggest factors, one of them is trading cheaper than usual, four of them are trading more expensive than usual. And people are saying 'get me out of value, let me try multi-factor'.

"The problem then is you've moved from a value strategy to what is now temporarily an anti-value strategy." Most multi-factor strategies are in fact priced rich relative to the market, by 10 or 20 per cent.

"And they say, 'don't worry, we've got a value sleeve'. No, the value sleeve has been squashed by the other factors and you have an anti-value strategy and watch out.

"If it's priced at a 10 to 20 per cent premium to the market and there's mean reversion, that's a 1000 or 2000 basis points underperformance."
================
ohmy.gif
we have all sorts traders in the market!!!


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 16 2018, 09:20 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


worth noting the $sox has been + divergent to the $spx last few sessions

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/...se&state=15




--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 02:47 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


two fat bid signals at 5686 low swing $xjo
taken
not precious on it tho wink.gif




--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 13 2018, 03:38 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Nov 13 2018, 03:25 PM

ran into a brick wall ......$dax overnight liquidity gang hoisted a ton .....gotta like the fake lifts ph34r.gif



--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 


joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 13 2018, 03:25 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


honkers on a nice lift, riding this






--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 13 2018, 10:44 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 13 2018, 07:08 AM

only trade size in live hours
it's a killer overnight ....yesterday was education day with price failing to ascend hence my do or die post
some days are pivotal structurally, meaning, if they aint doing what is typical the opposite is likely to carry the weight




--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 13 2018, 07:08 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,339
Thanks: 1320


In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Nov 12 2018, 04:39 PM

morning joules
i really like to know how you dealing with this type of " gap up/ gap down" that against your trades" when HK market opens?? i've been bitten many times and still haven't find the good way to deal with it. i want to lean from you guys , see if i can reduce the pain and loss in this type of situation. unsure.gif

looks bad for the market today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/stock-marke...terans-day.html



 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 12 2018, 04:39 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Nov 12 2018, 02:39 PM

$hsi
am loaded to the gills with honker longs .....do ph34r.gif or die graduated.gif time





--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
 


1565 Pages (Click to Jump) V  « < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING