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OIL, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Oct 31 2019, 06:46 AM
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One fund manager's thinking about oil and gas investment:
QUOTE
“Stocks are already priced for certain outcomes and in some cases they are priced for a terrible outcome. For us to do well the outcome only has to be bad, not terrible,” [Allan Gray analyst] Suhus Nayak said.

The investment case for energy is based around three pillars of thought. First, growth in electric vehicles is overstated and petrol cars will be with us for a long time. Second, the economics of swing producers such as shale are more marginal than most think.

And third, estimates of stranded resources are overblown. Most major energy companies do not have assets that will last longer than 12 years, according to Allan Gray. They will produce solid cash flow right up until then, enabling them to return your investment over that period.

Mr Nayak used the weighting of the energy sector in the S&P 500 to prove his point, saying it was at a 30-year low despite the oil price running at roughly double the level it was at in 2016.

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20191030-p535og



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 18 2019, 06:42 PM
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QUOTE
ExxonMobil will sell its Gippsland Basin oil and gas assets off Victoria’s southeast coast in a deal which could top $US2.5 billion ($3.65bn) sparking speculation whether BHP, its joint venture partner, may follow suit and cash out of its interest in the Bass Strait.

Exxon confirmed a report in The Australian’s DataRoom column that it would place its 50 per cent stake, owned through Esso, on the market after years of speculation the US energy major was looking to quit its holdings. The announcement was made to hundreds of workers by Exxon’s new Australian chairman Nathan Fay on Wednesday.

“ExxonMobil will be testing market interest for a number of assets worldwide, including its operated producing assets in Australia, as part of an ongoing evaluation of its assets. No agreements have been reached and no buyer has been identified,” Exxon said in a statement.

been good for the country. Thanks Lewis George Weekes, and what leverage BHP got :
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In 1958 Weekes retired as the Standard Oil's chief geologist and set up as an independent consultant. One of his first clients, Broken Hill Proprietary Co. Ltd, sought his services as the 'best petroleum geologist in America' to assist its efforts to find oil in Australia.

Visiting Australia in 1960, he asked for (and was granted) a 2.5 per cent royalty on any commercial discovery. He then recommended that B.H.P. begin exploration off the south-eastern coast of Victoria. It was critical timing, as the technology for drilling in rough seas was then being developed in California.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
denpal
post Posted: Sep 15 2019, 06:43 PM
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Good commentary here https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/attac...yemen.html#more
Especially the comments. This guy Bernhard has quite a following and is usually right on the money.


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nipper
post Posted: Sep 15 2019, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE
Saudi Arabia says drone attacks at two massive oil processing facilities have knocked out half of the country's total oil production.

Key points:
- The attacks have slashed the refineries' total production
- Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack
- Online videos showed huge flames engulfing the Abqaiq facility, with both blazes now under control

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-14/d...-fires/11513728
!!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 6 2019, 12:24 PM
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QUOTE
" As we look ahead to 2020, we expect U.S. production to grow and non-OPEC, non-U.S. production to also grow, driven by several large international projects scheduled to come on line."
Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO, Baker-Hughes Corp

QUOTE
"On the demand side, global crude oil demand growth appears to be slowing due to a number of factors including trade tensions."
Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO, Baker-Hughes Corp (- world’s largest oil field services company)

- excluding other factors, no price pressure for a while? Lower for longer?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 24 2019, 12:50 PM
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Oil spills into U.S.-China trade war, prices slump
Devika Krishna Kumar
QUOTE
NEW YORK (Reuters) - China said on Friday it would impose tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports for the first time, sending prices down nearly 4% to two-week lows as the escalating bilateral trade war fed worries over a slowdown in global oil demand.

Beijing said crude would be among the U.S. products hit by tariffs of 5% as of Sept. 1. U.S. President Donald Trump responded later in the day saying starting on Oct. 1, the 25-percent tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods will rise to 30%. Tariffs on remaining $300 billion due to begin on Sept. 1 will now be set at 15%, versus 10%.


QUOTE
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 slumped as much as 3.8% to $53.24 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since Aug. 9, before ending the session at $54.17. The rising trade war is likely to weigh on U.S. crude more than international benchmark Brent LCOc1, market sources said.

“Chinese buyers will (now) be looking to purchase Brent and Dubai-based crude oil and I would expect that to result in a widening of the Brent-to-WTI spread,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

“In essence what you’ve done is created new demand for Brent-based crude oil at the expense of U.S.-origin crude.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trad...p-idUSKCN1VD22D



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 11:41 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 8 2019, 10:08 AM

Bankruptcy filings by U.S. energy producers pick up speed: law firm analysis
QUOTE
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Bankruptcy filings by U.S. energy producers so far this year have already nearly matched the total for the whole of 2018, law firm Haynes & Boone reported on Wednesday, as volatile oil and gas prices drive companies to seek protection from creditors.

A total of 26 firms with debts totaling $10.96 billion have filed for court restructuring through mid-August, according to the law firm’s report.

Last year, 28 companies filed for bankruptcy, listing $13.2 billion in debt, while 24 firms sought protection in 2017 with $8.5 billion in debt.

“So far this year there has been an uptick in the number of filings,” Haynes & Boone said, noting 20 of the filings have been since May.

read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-...s-idUSKCN1V42B7



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 10:08 AM
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Big Money Starts to Dump Stocks That Pose Climate Risks
After years of meetings and shareholder resolutions, some funds are starting to simply divest from coal and oil stocks.

By Kelly Gilblom
August 7, 2019, 2:01 PM

QUOTE
Demand for thermal coal, the kind used to generate electricity, is declining in much of the world as governments seek to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Some asset managers are deciding it’s risky—for their clients and the planet—to keep shoveling capital into companies with environmentally unsustainable business strategies. This year almost every major public oil company faced at least one shareholder resolution about climate change. Those proposals won record support. (Michael R. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, in June launched an effort to phase out every U.S. coal-fired power plant by 2030.)


QUOTE
Stansbury says he already had deep misgivings about the future of the oil market. Oil companies’ value depends on investors believing that demand for crude will always grow. For 100 years, that belief had been justified. But if renewable-energy sources gain market share and crude demand stutters, the market would go haywire, he says. That could trigger a huge re-rating of major oil companies—of which LGIM holds more than $12 billion in shares. “It was a lightbulb moment,” he says.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-climate-risks



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 5 2019, 10:12 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 4 2019, 09:01 PM

thought oil price would be way high than usd$55.30/b...............................
seems iran need to seizes more oil tanks.................... laugh.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 4 2019, 09:01 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/04/iran-seizes...te-tv-says.html


Most analysts maintain war in the Persian Gulf remains unlikely, but fear that with tensions so high and no diplomatic channel of communication, a mere miscalculation could set off a serious conflict.
======================

gulf war unlikely???????? WTF!!

what's the price of WTI on monday when the future market opens??

 
 


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