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The Artful Stock Picker, Discuss with author Peter Hegarty
PeterH
post Posted: Dec 30 2008, 03:56 PM
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In reply to: jimmy on Tuesday 30/12/08 02:46pm

I’m always hoping for the best Jimmy but count on nothing. It’s out of our hands of course, but wouldn’t it be ironic in this age of wealth destruction if the outliers like MST came good to save the day?

If there is any one thing that will preserve and make the most of the MST technology it will be having gone into business with the Singaporeans. I think I said something like that a long time ago. Without them we would have been history already.



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jimmy
post Posted: Dec 30 2008, 02:46 PM
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In reply to: PeterH on Tuesday 16/09/08 02:08pm

I dont think MST are too far off now Peter. I believe 2009 will be a watershed year for Metal Storm. Fingers crossed, but the hard work has been done with certification just around the corner early in the new year!

 
neutron
post Posted: Sep 16 2008, 06:58 PM
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In reply to: PeterH on Tuesday 16/09/08 05:21pm


Hi Peter,

That is a great reply, so I will supress the rebuttal gene...

Yes, there is a good reason stocks like MST, RRS, SLA, CVI, INL are so popular on stock forums and attract such colourful characters.

All the ingredients that would attract us to a good movie or book are usually there.

Over the years it has been an interesting excursion in trading psychology observing these type of stories play out.

Yes it is exciting looking for the next big thing, especially when you get onto a sector early, real early.... then for cream you pick the darling in your sector spread.

Tough times atm, but exciting at the same time you know.

All the best.





 
PeterH
post Posted: Sep 16 2008, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE (neutron @ Tuesday 16/09/08 02:41pm)

Neutron, you said, "...there are a handfull of stocks on this forum that are in such sustained, clean downtrends... yet still draw so much SS interest".

True, but I think we have to make allowances for the devotees to the concept. The blokes who keep the post count up for MST are blokes who love talking about guns. They are mostly not talking about MST as an investment. By contrast, you don't get investors in David Jones relishing a debate about socks, or shareholders in Incitec yarning about fertilisers. About INL , I don't know. It is not one that I follow.

I said somewhere back in the mists of time something about the lure of being part of the next big technological breakthrough. It is a powerful motivation to invest, over and above any projections that it is possible to make about return on your funds. Frequently when we turn on TV we see yet another program about some great Australian idea that went offshore for a song because Australians refused to invest in it. I am prepared to risk a small part of my portfolio to keep the dream alive, and obviously quite a few others are too. If it comes to nothing we should be prepared to be stoic about it. I never squeal when I lose and I have no patience for those who do. If it comes in a winner, on the other hand, I think we can be excused for a level of satisfaction that is pretty hard to achieve by any other means.

In the meantime I don't go on about it. No point. There are too many other interesting things going on, like CSG, picking the next hot mineral, when the market will turn, etc. smile.gif


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neutron
post Posted: Sep 16 2008, 02:41 PM
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In reply to: PeterH on Tuesday 16/09/08 03:08pm


QUOTE
The things I said in my post on the same subject in January remain relevant.



ditto....

here is my January post....


QUOTE
Though I don't mean to lay the boot into PeterH as he seems like a good guy and I respect his transparency.... but there are a handfull of stocks on this forum that are in such sustained, clean downtrends... yet still draw so much SS interest.

INL is a classic. I follow that thread to remind me of how not to play the game.

So far this year is setting up for The Return Of The Daytrader... for now at least, reminds me so much of when I started this caper ~ 2001

Take care.




 
PeterH
post Posted: Sep 16 2008, 02:08 PM
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In reply to: jimmy on Monday 15/09/08 04:56pm

The things I said in my post on the same subject in January remain relevant. A couple of things have changed, however. One is that, in the light of more recent developments affecting so many other companies on the board, MST has now become one of the least of my worries. The other is that it has become more clear that MST is in the hands of the gnomes of Singapore.

I use the gnomes reference advisedly. The city state is most assuredly the Switzerland of Asia. Once an establishment institution of Singapore makes a commitment to a company that company takes on Singapore like characteristics. One of these is that it has very little chance of going under. It will be made to work at all costs. Another is that the lion's share of the rewards will go to the Singaporeans who make it work.

Shareholders, like the founders and employees, are now mere onlookers. All we can hope is that there is something worthwhile left for us after the dilution.

If it is any consolation, some wit said that if you stay in the game long enough you will eventually be dealt the hand you were meant to have.


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jimmy
post Posted: Sep 15 2008, 04:56 PM
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In reply to: PeterH on Monday 25/02/08 01:33pm

Hi Peter, any thoughts on mst at this time?

 
PeterH
post Posted: Feb 25 2008, 01:33 PM
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In reply to: yan on Sunday 24/02/08 05:12pm

G’day Yan.

Yes, I bought Patrick (when it was Lang Corp) for 8 cents and sold them for $8. You don’t get many like that but why not keep looking?

The principle you have raised is the one about staying close to the guys who seem to always clean up. It is an admirable path to follow and I try to follow it when practicable.

Oncard? Well you may know my rule about companies which have names ending in International. Most of them go under - statistical fact. So I had to grit my teeth to force myself to buy ONC. But I did, and have averaged down in the recent dips.

CUS? No I am not on board. I find it less transparent, if that sounds possible. Correct me if I am wrong, but I am assuming that the ATMs which it operates are the generic type which we see at Bendigo Bank outlets and elsewhere. They make a feature of giving access to the maximum number of card systems/networks without being the flag bearer of one. On the whole these ATMS cost the customer more than aligned ATMs. If I can go to my NAB terminal nearby and pay no fee, why should I use a CUS machine and pay a fee? That is the logic I apply, and I apply it to everyone else and then wonder how you can build a business model on this basis. Correct me if I have got it wrong.

I also find it hard to understand by what means they plan to secure a place in the Asian High Street. And I understand they use the backroom services of St George. If St George is taken over by one of the big four(always a possibility) would CUS be squashed out of the way?

A couple of other generic terminal proprietors failed and I am glad I did not take up offers to subscribe.

FCP? Less transparent still. It may turn out to be a gold mine but there is a fair bit of “trust me” involved, and boy oh boy, I wish I knew what their plans were. Not being able to explain to a stranger what their plans are, in a few simple sentences (one of WB’s tests) I will pass.

I figure that one interest out of three in this stable is enough.

Peter



 
yan
post Posted: Feb 24 2008, 05:12 PM
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Hi PeterH

I remembered you brought Peter Scanlon Chris Corrigan's Patrick Corporation as lower cents and held up for years and years until Patrick turns to be around $7.00

Now Peter Scanlon starts OnCard International, after passed his Patrick to Toll.

What is your opion on onc, cus and fcp? I think Chris Corrigan will involve fcp in certain degree.

Will they turn to be another Patrick?

 
PeterH
post Posted: Jan 11 2008, 01:07 PM
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In reply to: chromedome on Thursday 10/01/08 04:18pm

"Does it ever concern you of the opportunity cost of holding something in such a sustained downtrend as MST?"

Not a bit. If I had a fortune in it, sure. But I don't.

I have explained before, although I do not expect you to have read it, that for every dollar I have in stocks in downtrend I have many more dollars in stocks which are in uptrend.

I never use borrowed money and the bulk of my portfolio is still in stuff that is unlikely to fall out of bed, like Nexus, Oxiana, Leighton, Arrow Energy, Wesfarmers, Woodside, Harvey Norman, Reece, CBA, NAB, Worley Parsons, etc, etc.

Don't come back to me and tell me about the past week or so, because that is hardly a trend and is unlikely to be noticed against the time frame in which I am interested.

MST is a high risk/high reward stock and should be accorded its appropriate status as such.

Moving right along, I have said before that we invest in such stocks also because we love the science, we are proud Australians and we get a kick out of being part of something revolutionery which began in a man's garage. That kind of motivation still has a place so far as I am concerned. smile.gif

 
 


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