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The bottom of this cycle for ASX200 -, Cash is no longer King
mpl
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 08:28 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 25 2009, 05:05 PM

Flower

Now, I dont say a move up will be anything but another Bear Trap, but at least it's better than the alternative.

So whats the Alternative ?.

MPL

 
arty
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 08:12 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 25 2009, 06:52 PM

Thanks for acknowledging that, on this occasion, I happened to guess right.
Emphasise the conditional "If $36 fails again..."

These are the Weekly Closing Prices for the weeks after Christmas:
Attached File  CLc1_w_table.gif ( 5.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


I'm sure you could've found far better examples where my guesses were further off the mark. I know and accept that they can be wrong. That's why I call them "guesses" or "projections" and insist they're not something that will happen. Where necessary, I also follow up with an update and a correction, which some people actually accept as acknoledgement that my first guess was wrong. Most importantly, when that happens, I don't insist the big bad boyz manipulate things to get me; I
have a Plan B: stop out and adjust my strategy to the new situation.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
sabretoothed
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 07:57 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 25 2009, 06:19 PM

I guess oil is rising because of falling $US, $US probably about to do a sudden drop bottoming, oil will spike up slightly, then flop down again as the US$ reverses?

Yeah what happened to peak oil and terrorism, all gone now the new team is in charge. Kerry Obrien is a great show for investing, it's almost as good as doing opposite to whatever the AFR is saying



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I confirm that am not a licensed investment adviser , or have any formal training, to give investment advice. Therefore you must seek professional advice. I may hold this stock. Jesse Livermore is my Hero. Australia is the next Iceland!
 
flower
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 06:52 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 25 2009, 06:19 PM

[b]In reply to: Nkosi on Wednesday 24/12/08 03:33pm





Doesn't look like stopping anytime soon.
Since becoming front month, the February contracts went the way the January contracts finished: [/b]DOWN
The March contracts are still $3 higher, but the gap between front and front+1 is narrowing. If $36 fails again, my next guess is $26.


I trade daily, but I am NOT a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas logical or not: your actions are solely YOUR responsibility.

I trade by these two rules. (Thanks to Carl Sagan)
First: There are no sacred truths; all assumptions must be critically examined; arguments from authority are worthless. Second: Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just a bit of fun--sure you understand!






Attached File(s)
Attached File  Merry_Christmas.gif ( 7.64K ) Number of downloads: 12

 




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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
flower
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 06:36 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 25 2009, 06:01 PM

Just a few weeks early!!!!! -"from the commencement of stage 2"



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
arty
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 06:19 PM
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In Reply To: sabretoothed's post @ Oct 25 2009, 05:29 PM

Dontcha just love these eggspurts devilsmiley.gif
from a transcript of the K O'B interview on 19/06/2008 -
QUOTE
RICHARD HEINBERG, GLOBAL OIL EXPERT: I think speculation is playing a fairly minor role in what we're seeing. After all, why would one choose to park one's investments in oil futures contracts unless there were signs that supply was not going to meet demand? In effect, it's the fundamentals that are driving this speculation. Now, it's possible that we could see volatility in the price to the point that the price could fall back to perhaps even $110 a barrel. I think it's extremely unlikely that it would fall less than that because if that were to happen, a lot of producers who are now producing very expensive oil because of the high prices that otherwise wouldn't be produced. They've reopened old oil wells that didn't used to be economical. Well, if the oil price falls very much, they're going to close those questionable wells back down again, then supply will again fall and then that will push the price right back up again. So, while we may see considerable volatility in the price as a result of this speculation, over the long run, the price has no way to go but up.
  • speculation plays only a minor role
  • fundamentals drive speculation
  • $110 as low as it will go
  • over the long run, price must go up
hmm - that's probably the catch-all: 17 months since his predictions is apparently not long enough. Who cares that he lost at some point 75% or more of his "investment".
Attached chart suggests another Bearish Divergence may be forming, unless next week will defy the top reversal doji and keep going.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  CLc1_w_23_10_09.gif ( 22.95K ) Number of downloads: 11

 




--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 


arty
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 06:01 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 25 2009, 05:05 PM

FCOL - "a few weeks early" my foot! Check out the time axis on your two charts.
Your first "stage 2 accumulation" was drawn in July/August 2008 - six months and 2000 points early!!! devilsmiley.gif
That's wrong by 40% - and you still try to pit your wits against Kahuna, who missed one target once by 2% ? wacko.gif

And it wasn't onefineday's post either, but YOU rebutting his cautious reply to Jimmy's calling 5000 a bottom:
QUOTE
I'm not saying you're wrong I just think there are more downside risks given the overall market mood and sentiment.
And how right that turned out to be. unsure.gif



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
sabretoothed
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 05:29 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 25 2009, 04:35 PM

Arty remember this was funny hey, Kerry O'Brien show is the great canary of the top. Maybe when Kerry does an story on ASX booming it's time to lock in the shorts hard wink.gif

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2280200.htm



--------------------
I confirm that am not a licensed investment adviser , or have any formal training, to give investment advice. Therefore you must seek professional advice. I may hold this stock. Jesse Livermore is my Hero. Australia is the next Iceland!
 
flower
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 05:05 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 25 2009, 04:35 PM

QUOTE (onefineday @ Sunday 17/08/08 07:20pm)
Maybe everybody is getting too pessimistic, at least for the period now till Christmas, and thats as far as anybody dare contemplate.

Fundamentally--- the Funds have shorted the crap out of nearly everything for months, so consider this:

1. China is just about ready to fire up industry post the Olympics

2. The USofA is preparing to elect a new President, maybe even a new party, but one things for certain, GWB having been an unmitigated disaster, things can only improve, and a complete change in philosophy in the States come November could really fire up the US market.

3. The Northern Hemisphere returns to work in 3 weeks time, Barbados, Cannes, Nice, will be but a memory! Importantly VOLUME returns.

Shares run in Cycles or Stages, and IMHO the ASX200 is now in Stage 2 (Accumulation) before Stage 3 which is the one most of us want.

Now, I dont say a move up will be anything but another Bear Trap, but at least it's better than the alternative.


Attached im ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Just a few weeks early!!!!!
Attached File(s)
Attached File  August_call.gif ( 9.86K ) Number of downloads: 8

 




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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
arty
post Posted: Oct 25 2009, 04:35 PM
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"Tee Hee", to borrow a phrase tongue.gif

Strange how this thread was created at a time when 5000 seemed THE low, and revived when 4000 was supposed to be "it".
Yet when the true bottom was in - and commented about elsewhere by Kahuna et al - this location had been conveniently forgotten.

It seems a happy coincidence that some of those experts, who called for a bounce up from 5000, now start quoting elsewhere how their favourite stock has been climbing 100% in the last 12 months. Had they put their money where their mouth was in August last year, figures would be rather different, wouldn't they. (The fact that some stocks have been swinging widely inside the past 15 months, should also be mentioned.) It's equally fallacious to quote gains over the last 6 months.

I'm not sure what happened to Jimmy123; at least he admitted getting it wrong. I sincerely hope he had the good sense to realise the severity of his misjudgment and apply a prudent stop-loss in time. If he had taken the easy way out and blame his being wrong on manipulation and casino mentality, I could well understand his silence since April. Which would be really sad - he seemed quite a sensible trader... Pity that he tended to read and believe in too much "noise", e.g. the $200 oil "prediction".



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
 


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