Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

159 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
triage
post Posted: Feb 13 2019, 10:35 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,681
Thanks: 1461


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 13 2019, 08:12 AM

No EB, you're the little bird of happiness. biggrin.gif I think you are on the money.





--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 13 2019, 08:12 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,280
Thanks: 1294


Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday show that in seasonally adjusted terms lending dropped 4.4% between November and December to $32 billion, the lowest level in three years.

This is driven by a 6.4% drop in mortgages for owner occupiers and a 4.6% drop in lending for investment properties, continuing the weaker trend we have seen for most of the past year.

In the year to December, lending fell 19.8% with lending for owner-occupied homes down 16.2% and 27.8% for lending to investors. Loans for first home buyers were down 12.6% compared to December 2017.

The ABS said this fall was smaller than the 15.5% fall in loans to owner-occupier non-first home buyers.

The RBA is well aware of this weakness in dwelling investment (and falling approvals, down 22% seasonally adjusted in the 12 months to December, thanks to a 38% drop in approvals of apartments and home units and an 11% plus drop in new private dwellings.

In the first Statement on Monetary Policy last Friday the Reserve Bank identified weak dwelling investment as a key weakness for the economy:

“Very weak conditions in the earlier stages of residential development identified in business liaison point to further downside risk to dwelling investment in 2020 and beyond.” In fact, the RBA sees dwelling investment falling 10% or thereabouts over the next two to three years,” The RBA said.

“The slowdown in lending for investor dwellings this month continues the steady decline over the past two years, with the value of new investor loan commitments down around 40 percent from the peak at the start of 2017,” ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said in a press release yesterday.

“The slowdown in lending for owner occupier dwellings is more recent, with falls concentrated in the last half of 2018.”

“In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of lending for owner occupier dwellings excluding refinancing fell in New South Wales (-6.1 percent), Victoria (-6.6 per cent), Queensland (-9.9 per cent), Western Australia (-6.3 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-4.9 per cent), the Northern Territory (-18.3 per cent) and South Australia (-1.0 per cent). Tasmania (4.2 percent) recorded the only rise this month,” the ABS said.

Lending to businesses dropped 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
==================================

not sharp enough in my mind. the housing price drop 7--10% within a month---that will shake the tree for those { day dreamer to get rich easy and quick by investing in housing}.. devilsmiley.gif
i'm too dark am i??? tongue.gif



Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
triage
post Posted: Feb 4 2019, 06:50 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,681
Thanks: 1461


The day is starting off appearing to be an absolute horror for the housing sector.

First up, today we get the final report of the Kenneth Hayne banking royal commission. Anything less than an excoriation of the lending mentality of the banks will be a shock and a profound disappointment. Any idea that the banks can go back to their old loose lending ways is or should be a fantasy. What has been going on in the housing market in the last six months will become the new norm.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi...SKCN1PS0M3?il=0

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/bank...making/10771612

Then there's this. A fire has broken out in a high rise apartment block in the Melbourne CBD at about 5:00 this morning. The ABC is reporting that firefighters believe that it is spreading through the combustible cladding on the building. From all reports there are thousands of apartment blocks in Australia where combusible cladding was used in construction. The problem (plus a few others not typical in modern Australian buildings) was highlighted by the Grenfell fire in the UK. Up till now no action has been taken for most Australian buildings but to remedy the problem will cost individual unit owners tens of thousands of dollars. Besides who wants to invest in or live in a fire-trap?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/spen...bourne/10776018



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 05:04 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 393
Thanks: 175


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 15 2018, 12:09 PM

QUOTE
And as an aside: "18/24 months of falling prices. ..we're ~ 6 months off a federal election..."
.... anyone might suspect the coalition would be unfussed if it loses the next election


It's amazing how quiet Canberra is on this: both sides, Labors not even beating the drum. I suspect 2 reasons:A: They know the gig is up: politically increasing prices will be suicide with voters from these levels.b: They are prepared to support the banks, not the mortgage holders. The bail in laws were passed in February, with barely any noise at all.
As for the current PM, I see him as nothing more than a nightwatchmen. Nightwatchmen: Wikipedia


 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 12:09 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,201
Thanks: 1920


In Reply To: Mags's post @ Nov 15 2018, 11:48 AM

Cash is King 👑

And as an aside: "18/24 months of falling prices. ..we're ~ 6 months off a federal election..."
.... anyone might suspect the coalition would be unfussed if it loses the next election



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 11:48 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 393
Thanks: 175


This is only just getting started.
We are over 12 months into falls now.Car sales falling for 7 months.Consumer confidence in the gutter.
And the kicker: This is the first time, EVER, Australian house prices have fallen with out central bank intervention: It is falling under it's own weight.
Now the double kicker:Understand that time on market is growing, stock on market is growing, $$$$ turnover at auction is halved.... etc. etc.
And then learn that we have just set another record for crane numbers in Australia.
1 in 10 is employed in construction..... There's a hell of a drop off in approvals and starts that's coming down the pipe line. Just as all these apartments hit the market... against 18/24 months of falling prices.
We're ~ 6months off a federal election....
None of these things will give buyers any confidence: this is the worst case scenario we could have dreamt up. Just as ~$700b of IO loans roll over, and $500m of liar loans continue to float about......
Those leveraged too hard will lose it all. Those who avoid the fall out will be part of the greatest wealth transfer in our countries history.
Hold on.



Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  triage  BobE  mullokintyre  
 


early birds
post Posted: Nov 14 2018, 07:38 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,280
Thanks: 1294


Lendlease is offering buyers of apartments at its signature $2.5 billion Melbourne Quarter project in Docklands discounts of up to 5.5 per cent as it battles a slowing market and an exodus of overseas investors.

The embattled construction and development giant's discounted offer, through stamp duty rebates, are for all remaining apartments being sold in the Melbourne Quarter East Tower and runs until the end of the year.

A spokeswoman for Lendlease said the majority of the 719 apartments in Melbourne Quarter East Tower had been sold with remaining apartments priced from $525,000 for a one bedder up to $1,552,000 for a three bedder.

"Stamp duty rebates have been incorporated in the marketing campaign from time to time since the project was launched in 2016. The value of stamp duty saved ranges up to 5.5 per cent of the purchase price," she said.

News of the rebates follow a torrid week for Lendlease, which has seen its share price plummet from $17 to $13 after it announced a surprise $350 million writedown related to infrastructure projects and abandoned a $500 million bond issue.

Related Quotes
LLC
LEND LEASE STAPLED (LLC)
$12.780.060.47%
volume 6515650value 84310265.2
5 YEARS

1 DAY
Last updated: Wed Nov 14 2018 - 8:32:24 PM
View full quote
ASX Announcements Expand
With the Lendlease AGM scheduled for Friday, the board and CEO Steve McCann may have to answer shareholder questions about the outlook for earnings across its residential development business, given rebates impact on profit margins, in addition to the woes in its construction arm.

Banks tighten rules
The latest Lendlease offer is running alongside a 5 per cent discount offered to first-home buyers across its projects in Docklands through the developer paying half of the 10 per cent deposit.

However, the same buyer cannot take up both the stamp duty and first-home buyer offers.

Tony Kelly, Melbourne managing director at valuers Herron Todd White, said banks now paid close attention to rebates and expected valuers to disclose them, whereas they may have been hidden in previous market downturns.

"If there's a rebate in a contract it might have a negative impact on the valuation. Banks will lend on market value, not something propped up by the incentive," Mr Kelly said.

"We always base our valuations by looking at realisable value in the secondary market. The question the valuer needs to answer is "would the property sell for the same amount if the rebate or incentive was not offered?"

Mr Kelly said higher settlement risk was about to happen in the market as banks changed their credit rules.

"Some borrowers might have to re-apply for finance," he said.
===========

SOME BORROWERS MIGHT HAVE TO RE-APPLY FOR FINANCE!!!! that will be the killer blow for some speculators imho.



Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 9 2018, 10:09 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,201
Thanks: 1920


In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Nov 9 2018, 09:49 AM

Yes, it's all a load of tosh, really.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 9 2018, 09:49 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 916
Thanks: 196


fixed the editorial to being positive-biased rather than emotively-negative-biased (designed to keep your eyes on the media)

"Sydney house buyers are being forced to buy at steeper discounts as properties languish longer in a better-bargains residential market."



--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 9 2018, 09:17 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,201
Thanks: 1920


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 9 2018, 07:55 AM

Willing buyer, willing seller. That's not discounting, it's price discovery !



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


159 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING