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SYR, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:10 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 5 2019, 11:24 AM

QUOTE
My bet UBS closed their shorts on Friday - should get a change to substantial holding in a day or two - and that they have borrowed stock again yesterday, hence the SP declining today.


My bet was out by a day or so,but still spot on.
Ann Date: 15/02/19 - Ceasing to be a substantial holder
Ann Date: 19/02/19 - Becoming a substantial holder - this time borrowing 8.9 million shares

SP down 4.14% @ $1.275 - triple bottom breached - next support level is $1.248
Total short positions as at 13 February 2019 = 16.90%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=syr
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 09:08 PM
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Latest short message on graphite from Placido Campos - Brazilian graphite technical specialist who worked with a number of graphite companies including, albeit a short period, SYR. English is not his first language but one gets the gist of what he is saying - I do anyway. There maybe some messages here re SYR's current issues

QUOTE
Basic conditions for producing graphite:

-a reserve with excellent behavior in the process.

-a quality of products that convince the best customers in the market always want their delivery.

- Most importantly: Have a technical team of high knowledge in graphite, working together, stable and happy. For this the key word is training of the chosen people.

A lot of companies divulge texts about their productions and magnitudes but it changes of technical body as if it changes of clothes. People that dismiss technicians of very easy way or is because it did not know to hire and to train or is because it does not have specific competence.

Do you want to invest in Graphite companies? See how they change their staff!


An earlier article published on September 18, 2017 from him is this one - How important is detailed planning in a graphite mine?

QUOTE
I have always been asked to do review of graphite projects from various parts of the world. We currently have several mineral provinces in focus around the world: Canada, India, China, Brazil, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, Russia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and a few others.

Marketing to raise money on graphite projects has been focused on carbon content and particle size distribution (flakes). These characteristics have a lot of importance, but the economic feasibility study is easy to contemplate. So what else needs to be considered?

I intend here to highlight only a few situations I have experienced, which demonstrate the complexity of producing good quality graphite and thus satisfy the various market segments.

In the refractory segment, the chemical composition of the impurities is a preponderant factor, some companies control what we call SC (Surface coefficient) and this characteristic is associated with the crystallinity intrinsic to reserve genesis.

As for large flakes, the expansion rate is a striking and complex factor. The difference of sources can define good and bad qualities.

In the fine size segment, sulphur, vanadium, molybdenum and other elements may make a reserve in the alkaline battery segment unfeasible, even at the ppm level. I still do not have clear information on the influence on lithium-ion batteries but we've heard of some mobile phone blasts.

The process control needs indirect parameters that lead to an ability to produce with high quality and good use of the mineral reserve: preserve flakes and high fine carbon content, recovery and control of chemical elements in products.

All of this is just a conversation starts and knowing how to optimize and get to know the true potential of a mine is fundamental to know if a project really has a good response to its acceptance in the market. The true result of a project will appear maybe after 5 years and not on the plant start up. The market gives the answers when their products and tests provide the same. Good mine control is key to ensuring the success of the projects and I have hardly seen companies that are concerned in this way. They treat a graphite mine as if it were an iron mine.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-importan...plácido-campos?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mrcurly  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 6 2019, 10:05 PM
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extracts of analysts views. Note - Credit Suisse,has been involved with all SYR's cap raises. UBS, doing most of the shorting biggrin.gif
Heightened Cash Flow Concerns For Syrah
Challenges with Balama graphite production beset Syrah Resources over 2018 and brokers hope for a smoother ride in 2019.
-Production downgrades unrelated to quality of graphite resource or plant design
-Brokers ascertain urgent need to achieve cash flow momentum
-Pricing for the longer term uncertain

QUOTE
While not providing a specific price, the company reported achieved pricing in the December quarter was lower, affected by higher sales of fines. All numbers in the guidance for 2019 fell short of Deutsche Bank's expectations, while UBS believes costs and pricing guidance were the most disappointing.


QUOTE
Overall, mishaps in the past year were disappointing but Credit Suisse believes this overlooks the company's achievements and the opportunity that exists. The company has installed 5000tpa milling capacity for its BAM project. Purification equipment is being installed and the first customer qualification product was dispatched mid-January and phase 1 of the commercial scale feasibility study has been completed.

Balance Sheet

Specifically, the limited balance sheet capacity and expectations of a substantial cash consumption in the March quarter have put the focus squarely on the near term. Positive operating cash flow has been pushed out again, now expected early in the June quarter.

Credit Suisse asserts the company must demonstrate quickly how it can achieve positive momentum and remove concerns about the balance sheet. UBS agrees and suspects, with net outflows likely to take the cash balance below US$50m, attention will return to the need for a debt facility.

Incorporating the production result, lower realised and forecast pricing and a slower ramping up of BAM production to commercial levels, results in meaningful reductions to Macquarie's earnings forecasts of -44% and -56% for 2019 and 2020, respectively. The broker incorporates an increased risk premium in its weighted average cost of capital estimate, to reflect the uncertainty in how the graphite market will evolve.

Pricing

UBS suspects the market is trying to ascertain a sustainable long-term price for the company's product and factors in a long-term basket price of US$824/t. Credit Suisse expects a medium-term achieved basket price of above US$600/t, as lower-priced 2018 contracts are depleted and sales diversify away from China.


read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/02/0...erns-for-syrah/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 30 2019, 12:05 PM

Updated chart - SP down currently 2.67% @ $1.46.

Yesterday the SP reached $1.56 & closed $1.50. My bet UBS closed their shorts on Friday - should get a change to substantial holding in a day or two - and that they have borrowed stock again yesterday, hence the SP declining today.

I expect this will go on for some time yet, until REAL positive news is forthcoming
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 30 2019, 12:05 PM
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In Reply To: JSB's post @ Jan 30 2019, 07:35 AM

QUOTE
Looks like there's still some to do before it's cashflow positive

Certainly does - but then some of us did try, over many years, to present a more balanced view on such matters.

Haven't had time to read all the reports - will do so later - but the SP speaks volumes, and good ole UBS got it right again

SP seems to have recovered from earlier level - days range $1.68 - $1.995 - currently down $12.69% and sitting @ $1.755.

Looking forward to the audio conference call.

Total short positions as at 22 January 2019 = 16.59%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: JSB  
 
JSB
post Posted: Jan 30 2019, 07:35 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 29 2019, 02:17 PM

What we've all been waiting for Blacksheep. biggrin.gif

Costs presented FOB Nacala but pricing in CIF. Shipping costs range from US$35 - $110 in the DFS (which may have changed in the last 4 years?).

Looks like there's still some to do before it's cashflow positive.
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Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 02:17 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 16 2019, 06:36 PM

Looks like someone is not confident of a glowing Quarterly Report? QR due in a couple of days. Meanwhile on HC they're expecting many positives in the QR, including being cash flow positive.

UBS looks to have borrowed 7.2 mil shares

QUOTE
24-Jan-19 UBS AG, Australia Branch Stock received N/A 7,291,199 Ordinary


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR
Total short positions as at 22nd January 2019 = 16.59%

SP currently up 1.15% @ $2.02
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 06:36 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 16 2019, 11:22 AM

Right on cue devilsmiley.gif

Notice of change of interests of substantial holder
UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate
QUOTE
14-Jan-19 UBS AG, Australia Branch Stock received N/A 4,588,914 Ordinary


Meanwhile over on HC much joyous talk the last couple of days about burning shorts and this - "UBS Group now up to 21,729,502, or over 6%".- please read the fine print beyond the 1st page fellas - the only reason UBS is holding over 6% is because they've borrowed 4.5 odd million shares with a view to shorting. When will HC-ites learn sadsmiley02.gif



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 11:22 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 3 2018, 12:14 PM

Credit Suisse retain their previous rating and target price (naturally - being house broker one would not expect anything else)

QUOTE
Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR)

Analysts at Credit Suisse have retained their outperform rating and $5.50 price target on this graphite producer’s shares following its recent production update. According to the note, the broker was pleased with the update and believes it should ease investor concerns over the performance of its Balama operation. So much so, Credit Suisse feels there’s a chance that its shares could re-rate higher if the company can maintain its strong production performance. While I do agree with Credit Suisse that this could be the case, I’m holding out for its half year results to see what price the company has commanded for its graphite.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/top-broke...-235758648.html

SP back over $2.00 - currently $2.04/share
Yesterday's total trade volume was 2.7mil, - 925k was shorted. Always seems to happen with this share - you think UBS have closed their short positions (it's safe to get back in), the SP goes up and so do shorts positions. Does not appear they and/or others are finished just yet - just IMHO. Still a way to go before the market knows what % of their production is being sold and at what price. At the moment production is the only figure being quoted, which is pleasing but not the main criteria.

QUOTE
Tue 15th Jan, 2019 925,934 343,603,692 0.26% 2,782,361 33.28%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

"Error Upload failed. Please ask the administrator to ensure the uploads directory is writeable" - uploading charts still a problem



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 08:43 PM
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SYR gets a mention in the article below

Good to see commercial production has now been declared - "All revenues and operating costs will be reported to the Income Statement with effect from 1 January 2019" Unfortunately that means investors are still in the dark re revenues/profit (if any) until the end of April when 1Q2019 Quarterly should contain that info.

Good to see UBS closed most of it's shorts as at 10 January - although it's possible they may have borrowed more stock in the last couple of days since 10th. Total short positions as at 8th January 2019 = 16.95%

extract from The Bull's - 2018 ASX 200 Winners and Losers - http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/79480-...and-losers.html

QUOTE
A newcomer to share market investing would look at this list and wonder how four of the five stocks with the highest growth forecasts performed so poorly in 2018. What’s more, even a casual follower of business news has read of the coming emergence of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Hardly a person on the planet is unfamiliar with the lithium-ion battery that powers the electronic toys of today and the vehicles of tomorrow.

Three of those four worst performers are in the business of mining the metals needed to produce those li-ion batteries. Those three companies – Pilbara Minerals (PLS), Orocobre Limited (ORE), and Syrah Resources (SYR) along with satellite communications provider Speedcast International (SDA) are all in the ASX Top 30 Short List.

In the eyes of many retail investors, the short-sellers, or shorts, are the smartest people in the room since with the unlimited risks they face due diligence is a premium without which they cannot do.

The essence of short selling is borrowing shares at a given price and profiting when the price drops and the seller buys the shares at the lower price and pockets the difference. When the price goes the opposite way the losses keep mounting, theoretically to infinity, until the shorts panic and buy to cover. That means, in theory at least, the shorts need to be virtually certain a given stock is due for a downtrend.

So why would they bet against EVs and their battery packs? Retail investors who have been in the game for awhile know how quickly a red-hot sector can freeze over. In the fire-up stage investors rush in to buy and producers rush in to produce more of whatever has caught fire, thus inadvertently lowering the price. Orocobre and Pilbara are in the lithium business while Syrah is a graphite producer. Initially the shorts appear to have latched on to the falling price of both graphite and lithium as the perception crept into the market that supply was outstripping demand. In addition, some experts were questioning the extremely optimistic forecasts for EV demand in the next decades.

Now there is a new concern; one that was always there and has now bubbled to the surface. The truth is the lithium-ion battery may not be the technology of tomorrow as it has serious drawbacks. Right now, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and manganese are in the mix but research efforts for alternatives abound. The industry was shocked in mid-2018 when Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk made the claim that cobalt, once the must have metal, would be less evident in Tesla batteries in favor of increased nickel content, a cheaper metal.

That could have served as a reminder of the potential of other minerals falling out of the mix in the future. The price of both lithium and graphite has been volatile over the past several years, but both are improving.

While the price of both metals fell due to the oversupply issue, lithium recovered more quickly than graphite. Now the concern for graphite has shifted to shortage concerns with the price gradually improving in 2017. The following graph is from Canadian producer Northern Graphite.

All three of these companies are on the cusp of major production capability and at the very least deserve a spot on any investor’s watchlist.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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