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myshares
Posted on: Mar 18 2019, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Nice pictures... but they seem to think all Lithium comes from Chile and more importantly no Lithium comes from Australia.

In fact they have no minerals coming from Australia at all - not even Iron.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 11:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Look like a China issue identified from the Apple guidance...

QUOTE
The tremor that rippled through global markets and sank our dollar after the release of data showing China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than 18 months will be amplified by the steep revision downwards in Apple’s revenue guidance today.

It isn’t just the magnitude of the revision – two months after Apple was forecast revenue of between $US89 billion to $US93 billion for the December quarter it now says it will be about $US84 billion – but the reason for that downgrade.

Chief executive Tim Cook, in a letter to Apple shareholders, said that Apple had expected some challenges in key emerging markets but had not foreseen the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China.

‘’In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 per cent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China,’’ he said.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/chi...103-p50pd2.html
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Sep 23 2018, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Welcome back Blacksheep... yes I missed you !

I think whether it is Sharescene, HC, Twitter, Stockhead or any other media publication...they all need to be taken with a grain of salt.

It is however helpful over time to follow certain posters and learn the way they think, ramp, downramp, and overtime you get to know the ones that have some integrity.

Even the company reports are often tainted by how or what they say...

Biggest bugbear are those with company connections that use these modalities to post and portray independence. I know they monitor IP addresses but we can all get around with little effort using a VPN like Nord.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 29 2018, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

In some ways the model for EV recharging may be similar to what we see now with Petrol stations - they make more from what they sell you in the store than they do at the pump

? add a coffee shop to the store model they have

and presumably charging rates will continue to improve...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

rolleyes.gif

It is very likely that companies will have funding difficulties for new Graphite mines in the future

Everyone says Syrah will flood the market... and lower the price... so why invest in another Graphite mine ?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 7 2018, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Well if he wanted to make a profit - why not sell when it was in the high 30s ???

Cant believe a word he says
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 7 2018, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Although

WFE suspends 2 weeks

and the AVZ selling is during that period

Maybe Klaus is taking a bigger stake in the CR ??

That is what he did with the first AVZ sell down

Anyway - take home message is about Klaus in all of this and I wouldnt invest with him..

Langford is in a very difficult situation - must be very challenging to his psyche

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 7 2018, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Makes you wonder about the WFE fanclub now as well

? who would ever follow this guy again

I noticed he just installed his daughter into Latitude Consolidated so he has his finger in a lot of pies..
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 2 2018, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agreed - and Musk is a leader in this revolution

but the world still needs more Cobalt as even though Cobalt content of batteries will decrease - that is outweighed by increased battery numbers
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Jun 2 2018, 04:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

A few Cobalt graphs from a UBS 2018 presentation







and cross reference that with this now slightly out of date of Cobalt stocks on the ASX. add in the other world exchanges and there is a lot more Cobalt coming.

Celsius is a good example that has just reported a good Cobalt resource..and Nzuri is another, neither of which made the above UBS table

https://smallcaps.com.au/cobalt-stocks-asx-ultimate-guide/
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Jun 2 2018, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Great article....

No one really seems to be talking about significant increases in Cobalt supply to meet the rising demand...

If Cobalt prices were to start to fall from their peak... I wonder if that would change the future move to 811 in preference for the stability and safety...
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Jun 1 2018, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I also sometimes cross the bridge to the site across the river....

Plenty to read...but good to be choosy

but prefer your style of posting on this site !
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: May 31 2018, 11:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

I actually read Sharescene to read the interesting articles you find and post...

and yes - some of your biases do show through - but so do mine.

as for Panasonic - they have their biases as well and Tesla is one of them as they are a major client...

Elon Musk started this with his no cobalt statement and Panasonic has backed their client as they are presumably going to be making them for him

I just dont think the article was gospel and Cobalt is going to be increasingly needed over the next 5-10 years...
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: May 31 2018, 03:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Tesla is a long way away from no cobalt batteries...

Maybe one day it will happen - but if you look at Cobalt projections and total amount of cobalt utlised with EV and related....

Cobalt is in demand...

Elon Musk was sensationalising for Tesla.. and he has done wonderful things but this is part of the marketing...


and


... no... you dont always post both sides of the story - but that's Ok, as you have always had a consistent style of posting that I find informative and helpful, often with contrarian views that I don't agree with, but make me think...
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: May 31 2018, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Always two sides to every story

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/panasoni...rent-concerned/

Stability in terms of use and explosions is important...
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: May 25 2018, 05:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Loved those bridge references and following it all on HC.

Agree that getting both sides of a story can be challenging on HC - but fun to look at in retrospect..

For those who trounced Syrah and pushed TON...

Maybe you were actually wrong after all ???
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 25 2018, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I think ML is not MIA..

but gagged !

Recent contract renewal with performance linked in..

So I am sure he is still very active in the background. He is probably even more motivated to have this one succeed than he would be anyway given all that has gone down.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 24 2018, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

yep - politics

A concern at all levels...

and they really have to be a narcicist to survive...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 24 2018, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Bit harsh to say it is the same as Square on Carter ... I hope

http://www.hannapub.com/concordiasentinel/...c38698bc14.html

QUOTE
Without a doubt, the Square on Carter proposal has stirred emotions on both sides of the issue. And it’s more than clear in this corner that opposition to the project is aimed at Copeland — by his detractors who oppose him for political reasons and by a few individuals whose motives may be driven by the almighty dollar. Or some other development somewhere down the road, so to speak.

Yet, anyone who respects the rule of law and who values the premise that the accused are innocent until proven guilty should be alarmed that the FBI and the U.S. Attorney’s office were lured into this matter because someone had an ax to grind. And at least one statewide official, Kennedy, played along. Or got played.

Still, the facts are the facts: The FBI determined the Town of Vidalia and its mayor have done nothing illegal to bring about the development of the Square on Carter.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 23 2018, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

biggrin.gif

I reckon 2/3 of a box !!
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 23 2018, 02:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

There is opposition to most things in life... and this is no different. It doesnt mean that they are right with their needs over the needs of the community that their council has sided with.

Coal
Uranium and Nuclear Power
Wind power
Daylight saving
Shark Culling
Sex before marriage
Gun ownership
Subdividing blocks
Marriage

The list goes on. That's life...

Well done Syrah - another tick and moving forward...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 22 2018, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

rarely want to acknowledge or discuss.... while the share price is being pumped and news is flowing, whether it is true or fake news...

but when the truth comes out = anger and betrayal.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 22 2018, 06:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Makes you wonder about the governance of a lot of ASX companies - let alone the banks, AMP, small Perth mining companies that backdoor list...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 18 2018, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

My thoughts are that you are across this a lot more than most..

and that is why I enjoy your posts. Your research is valuable to me as it balances the other information I obtain.

I tend to look at all the information available but only with a grain of salt on both sides...

When ever you speak to a CEO / MD - the world is great.. so they are one polar view...

Good to have the opposite and sit in the middle most of the time !

Thanks again for your posts - you do have a way of really getting to the bottom of things
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 17 2018, 05:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Happy with my comments -

They reflect my thoughts

Acknowledge the community concern - but my view is it is not the level of community disharmony you indicate...

Sometimes the minorities are very vocal

and yes - they can over turn lots of things - even if they are a minority...

Appreciate your info on Syrah - but all open to interpretation...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 17 2018, 04:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep..

Your biases are a bit strong on this one..

There is always a vocal minority - that's life... and Syrah has had that always had that battle along the way - from the surmountable bridges over the rivers, to the potential for civil war, to the sales and demand, to the site of this factory...

Time will tell... At least it looks like the big seller is out (hopefully) and we can see upward movement (hopefully without another sell down).

All shares have their ups and down - thats life...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 7 2018, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

That does look a bit suspicious for future sales off the register...

Surprising the board allowed that - in that way as the implication is there even if he was genuine.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 4 2018, 12:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Musk is outspoken and ahead of his game - but not as easy as he says

He is also very biased in terms of his sources (hence Syrah and Louisiana for BAM)

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 3 2018, 09:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Always a worry as to why Shorts appear

Very tightly held - with Top 20 holding 88.7 %

It is not Gecamines ... it has a JORC in place.. and a good stage 2 plan ahead...plenty of infrastructure around it

I think shorts trying to take advantage of negative DRC sediment...?

Did you see any other red flags ??
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 3 2018, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Time will tell..

Similar to the old BHP / Rio / Vale Iron ore moves to oversupply and kill the smaller guys

Always risky
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 3 2018, 05:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

A little biased perhaps (as I have been accused of being with SYR in the other way !)

http://ar09.angloamerican.solutions.invest..._portfolio.html

A world class asset portfolio
Anglo American has a world class asset portfolio with an extensive resource base that is complemented by brownfield expansions and a strong pipeline of approved projects.

It owns many Tier 1* assets, being among the largest and highest quality producing mines of their respective commodities, characterised by economies of scale, expandable resource bases and attractive industry cost positions.

*A Tier 1 asset is defined as a large, expandable, long life (>20 years) mine with favourable mineralogy and geographic location and in the lower half of the cost curve.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 2 2018, 10:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

DRC is like many African nations very corrupt...

but it doesnt mean all of the DRC miners should be tarnished with the DRC brush...

When you are bored.. I would be interested in your picking NZC apart...

WFE is so so easy to pick apart - not that it has much !

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 2 2018, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

yes.. DRC

But not all mines are Geccamines even if it has the potential Huayou tarnish which they dont as not mining..

completed JORC for NZC - yet look at Market Cap of WFE - NZC - the former due to Langford / Klaus enthusiasm

Crazy
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 2 2018, 04:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Slightly off topic..but a little tarnished with the WFE brush

but in terms of DRC - what are your thoughts on NZC -



  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agree with the social media promotion...

but less sure about the morals of Swami et al...

When investing - best to trust no one... everyone has an angle.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 09:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Twitter would suggest it belongs to the same Troll who reported them on the two previous occasions...

It really does seem to be fake news...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Blacksheep

Following on from the Lithium projections... I thought this was a good reminder of copper... and demand

http://www.mining.com/bhp-beats-tesla-bmw-...ic-vehicle-etf/

Although the thumbs down to Glencore might suggest some concerns about DRC (or something else I dont know about)... My impression is most of the DRC miners are cleaning up their act on the child labour criticisms. might be the sovereign risk... but the main point is BHP and copper

QUOTE
The Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) targets companies involved in the development of autonomous vehicle hardware and software, electric vehicles and EV batteries and raw materials. DRIV enjoyed a positive debut on Tuesday on a generally up day for markets rising around 0.8%.

Notably absent is world number one cobalt producer Glencore
Constituent companies are selected from 26 developed and emerging markets and must have at least $500 million in market capitalization. The ETF's top holding which according to Global X is chosen by artificial intelligence is Samsung followed by Intel, Microsoft and Toyota.

World number one mining company BHP comes in at number 10 just below Alphabet, Google's holding company. Anglo-Australian diversified miner Rio Tinto sits at no 14 just below Honda but ahead of automakers General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen. Tesla squeaks in at no 30 just ahead of Renault-Nissan, the world's number one seller of electric cars.

Other mining firms on the list include diversified giant Anglo American (no 33) and China Molybdenum (69) which owns the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine in the Congo, lithium miners Albemarle (46), FMC Corp (47) and Orocobre (74).

Developer Lithium Americas, which is in a joint venture with top lithium miner SQM (not included in DRIV) on a brine project in Argentina, at no 75 is the smallest investment in DRIV. Pilbara Minerals advancing a lithium-tantalum project in Western Australia sits at no 72.

Australia's diversified Mineral Resources, which earlier this month bought struggling Atlas Iron, is the 65th largest holding. Notably absent is world number one cobalt producer Glencore. The Swiss miner is also ahead of BHP and Rio in production of copper. The metal is projected to experience a big boost in demand from electric vehicles and particularly the associated charging infrastructure.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 03:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

After false starts, Syrah Resources subsidiary looks to Ascension Parish for battery component plant, local tax exemptions
The Advocate

After False Starts !

Finally some news....
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 30 2018, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

The problem with all of these new batteries is that they are 10 years to market....and unproven...

We seem to hear about a new battery composition every month.

Even if we move to from NMC 111 to NMC 811(and NMC 811 is not as good as per this tweet from Brendan Borg - increasing demand for EV and battery storage will still maintain demand for Cobalt


http://[/img]
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Mar 29 2018, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agree AVZ should have been a trading Halt - but an ASX TH wasnt enough

They traded overseas overnight based on the Twitter releases
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

WFE might make the next rewrite of:

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

By (author) Charles Mackay

First published in 1841, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is often cited as the best book ever written about market psychology. This Harriman House edition includes Charles Mackay's account of the three infamous financial manias - John Law's Mississipi Scheme, the South Sea Bubble, and Tulipomania. Between the three of them, these historic episodes confirm that greed and fear have always been the driving forces of financial markets, and, furthermore, that being sensible and clever is no defence against the mesmeric allure of a popular craze with the wind behind it. In writing the history of the great financial manias, Charles Mackay proved himself a master chronicler of social as well as financial history. Blessed with a cast of characters that covered all the vices, gifted a passage of events which was inevitably heading for disaster, and with the benefit of hindsight, he produced a record that is at once a riveting thriller and absorbing historical document. A century and a half later, it is as vibrant and lurid as the day it was written.For modern-day investors, still reeling from the dotcom crash, the moral of the popular manias scarcely needs spelling out.
When the next stock market bubble comes along, as it surely will, you are advised to recall the plight of some of the unfortunates on these pages, and avoid getting dragged under the wheels of the careering bandwagon yourself.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 07:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Considering his previous tweets say first class lounge comments

I presume there is an angle

No seatmap on SeatGuru - but I suspect he just couldnt get business class or there wasnt one

South African Airways Flight #1797
Nonstop
Route Flight # Depart Arrive Aircraft Amenities
JNB -> FBM 1797 9:20a 11:45a Canadair CRJ-700 No Map

http://www.flyexpress.aero/content/fleet

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Unbelievable Market Cap for a shell...with a Cobalt prospect in Canada that is unproven...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 19 2018, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

triplicate !

I guess that is one way to emphasize how much of a problem it is !!!
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 19 2018, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Duplicate !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 19 2018, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

The BAM site issue is very disappointing - much more of an issue with the new location than Syrah acknowledged at the time given their lack of resolution of the problem
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 19 2018, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

or could also be drifting up on Vanadium sentiment (with the rest of the Vanadium market)

Does feed into the takeover possibility as Vanadium makes Syrah even more attractive to a big player
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

This is a really useful website - have a look around it and should cover it

https://www.marketindex.com.au/analysis/dividend-yield

  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 15 2018, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agree

But useful as we will get to well north of 50%
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 14 2018, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Another way of looking at it - in a 100% EV world - the changes in demand ...


  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 14 2018, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Great table but bit strange and a bit conservative when you think about EV and Europe

Might be the way they express it as I know all of these minerals have other uses

Lithium

164% of today’s total EU demand (batteries, vehicles)

copper

6% of today’s total EU demand (solar, vehicles, grids, wind, combined heat and power)

? Cobalt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 1 2018, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agree - more for the takeover

Bring back the Glencore rumour!
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Feb 1 2018, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

Any thoughts on the Syrah Vanadium supply

Vanadium prices are rising as are other ASX companies with Vanadium mines...

I think the Graphite + Vanadium supply makes Syrah a takeover target... as the Vanadium isnt factored in, and I suspect they cant think about the financial outlay of developing that side of their operation at the moment
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 25 2018, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Hard to know the true story - and 2 sides to every story...

He is in damage control and worried no other companies are going to settle / invest in the area...

I suspect SYR has something else up their sleeve as they dont see any delays...

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 23 2018, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

My cognitive bias graduated.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 23 2018, 03:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks for that ...

In that Seeking Alpha post - he posted any dirt / rumours that he could...

and it did have a huge effect on SP as you have shown...

This is the sort of shorting that I think is unacceptable - Enron shorting is Ok as it is legit
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 23 2018, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Blacksheep - good on the detail as always

I was thinking more of the post the Viceroy guy did referring to the Uranium issue (and I now get the point that it came from here originally)

That short post did have an impact... from my recollection...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 23 2018, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

I think everyone is reading too much into Viceroy and where they got the SYR info.

Pretty obvious it was part of the TON rubbish was dragging up every little bit of SYR rumour they could to compete.

HC propagated a lot of that rubbish including the graphite contamination that has been well and truely disproven.

No difference to the other rumours that people create to drive damage competitors..

Just when the Viceroy guy was working with TON / Ferrier - he would have seen what he thought was an opportunity.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 20 2018, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I agree - a big difference between what they did with Syrah ...and what they are doing now with the SA companies...

I noticed Ferrier sort to distance themselves from their former employee

Maybe coincidence - but shorts have dropped below 20% for the first time in a while -

Peter
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 20 2018, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

More on Viceroy and how Shapiro from the AFR and Moneywebfound who they were and their backgrounds.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/in-depth/investi...ceroy-unmasked/

It will be a great story
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 20 2018, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I recall the Uranium rumour was totally rubbish...

More than enough testing has gone on to show that isnt the case.

I suspect all of this Viceroy scam is going to get increasingly interesting with the investigative journalism going on
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 11:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Do you think that he would imply HC / Cartex would have that much impact on the market

Viceroy would have more ... but maybe he meant both

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

based on expected demand are the key words

A big "fear" in the graphite world was over production

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Blacksheep

Cartex sounds more bitter about missing out on the job than anything else in this post !

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-syrah-...64#.WlIJEN-Wa70

In terms of Syrah putting out information to go against the shorters - I think Syrah has said they are getting on with business..

Plenty of hurdles Syrah is working through and the failure at any of them is what the shorters are waiting for...

Next one is on the 9th January as you posted... and plenty more ahead
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 08:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Totally agree - that was my thought that he created the issue that caused the SP collapse due to the shorting !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 10:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

it is all smoke and mirrors !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 2 2018, 11:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I know closing of short positions has been suggested elsewhere... but the % isnt really changing

I seem to recall someone saying that what some do is cover their shorts in a separate holding - then if SP continues to rise, they are holding some shares to return.

Does that happen ?.

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 2 2018, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

The market penetration will pay off when they start charging.

The payer however is not the consumer - it is the corporate / utility that wants to hang onto clients to stop churning... Hence the pilot trials.

Insurance model might be a bit different - and I dont really understand it fully but Insurance is a bit more state based in USA than national and it almost looks like they are setting up to be a broker in that area... but I havent quite grasped that.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 1 2018, 07:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

UPD is a tightly held stock that is funded to market (last CR was for an acquisition).

It does have a pretty unique position in the US market... and the pilot trials are very supportive.

I am comfortable with this one as a medium - long term investment and have been in since the 40s (but topped up in the 120s)
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 31 2017, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I seem to recall some plans for a plant in China but assumed the US plant was for Tesla...(and their US supplier theory)

Tesla isnt such a big part of the overall equation now... with many more factories elsewhere
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 23 2017, 05:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I cant access the article to see the content of that line...

but it will happen.. if not at that site - somewhere near by...

These sort of things happen in any project - I remember the days when one of the biggest barriers to Syrah was the need to build a bridge ! Those days are long gone.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 21 2017, 06:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Blacksheep

The usual council stuff we see anywhere... especially in Australia.

I liked this bit:

QUOTE
the space the company needed for future expansion [/b]nor could the facility meet its water supply needs. Port Manchac has those advantages, he said.]
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 1 2017, 12:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I think the contractor failure was his responsibility - but he couldnt go at the time
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 1 2017, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
This one is a bit more concerning,IMHO - another quick departure with no replacement mentioned - there is still a way to go before one can conclude commissioning/production has been successfully completed. How much notice did he give. Not sure this will be well received tomorrow

QUOTE
Executive Update
The Company announces the resignation of Chief Operating Officer, Darrin Strange, with effect from 30
November 2017.

The transition of activity at Balama into production and operations, represents an appropriate point
of change for the upstream COO role.”


or perhaps falling on his sword for the stuff up in commissioning?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Nov 15 2017, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
Cobalt may become a bottleneck for those whose batteries use cobalt. But 80% of China’s EV batteries use no cobalt. And those who do use cobalt are learning to use it more efficiently.


I havent seen that figure / quote before ?

80% seems a bit high if China EV batteries are all the current technology
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 03:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks

If you are on your L plates... I am still learning to ride a bike !

A TA thread for basic questions would be really useful...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

A bit off topic but watching your posts of the TA...

I notice you dont post RSI anymore but I seem to recall you did before... ? why

Just learning TA so I can understand what the thoughts of others..

Maybe start a TA thread for these sort of Qs and As
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Blacksheep

Off topic and not sure if there is a TA thread - but what program are you generating these graphs in -

They look good !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Oct 1 2017, 09:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Blacksheep

Not exactly correct - and it is a worried competitor speaking

Yes - enormous capacity to produce graphite... of all types and uses including for batteries

I wonder what Alabama's cost of production is ?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

The other package we might see - as the solar rebate back to the grid declines

Solar during the day stored on Tesla battery.. and used to charge the car at night

Although not sure of the battery capacity / charging side of the equation ...

i.e does one Telsa powerwall hold enough charge for one car battery recharge
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Apr 2 2016, 06:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Slightly off topic... but I dont think Sharescene ever recovered from over moderation when it was with the previous owners...

Pushed everyone elsewhere including to HC...

A shame - as I agree the standard on Sharescene was better, but the same problem as occurs on HC in that if you said anything negative about a stock in a scientific analytical way - it was still downramping and attacked for that by people who were arm chair experts with no experience in the area...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

golfgirl

Perhaps I can answer - if you look back at Melua's other posts, he posts extensively on the mining sector. Shares he owns and doesnt own, or some like Syrah that he owned and sold out of when he felt it was over valued.

Pretty clear that he is well connected, and well informed on the mining sector but with a bias towards early stage mining investment rather than companies that have hit production stage...

A post about a company anyone owns is not always to downramp a stock or to rub shareholders noses in the demise of them. Often you learn a lot about a stock by deciding not to buy it and for many of us, what is happening to TON is a confirmation of our investment decisions not to invest over the last couple of years.

I think for TON however it is a bit more than that as to what has been revealed over the last 3 months that gives it relevance to the mining sector as a whole, let alone what hasnt ever been revealed in terms of drilling results and other TON mining mysteries - and suddenly for those of us puzzled by TON for so long, it now all starts to make sense as it unravels.

At least that is my opinion from what I have observed !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 25 2016, 12:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

"$404,000 in unpaid rent on the Claremont premises"

what landlord allows that level of "falling behind in rent" !!
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Simple fact is TON was driven into the ground by previous poor management. Over-hyped announcements and poor cash management led to where TON is today.

and there was always some question about what they had in the ground with the "unreported/ reported" drilling results
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Feb 21 2016, 12:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

This concept of faeco-oral transmission is well recognised...

The classic example is in cysticercosis - pork tapeworm...They do reference an old medical report - but I have seen this in Jewish South African immigrants who have never eaten Pork

You just have to hope that whoever is making your food at that restaurant / cafe has washed their hands after wiping / scratching their butt.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/bodyhorr...m/#.VskmD_l9670

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Feb 14 2016, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Melua

Helpful to have your insights...

I have never held as many issues have plagued TON throughout its existence, but not possible to have people say these comments across the road.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 2 2016, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Melua

I am sure you know this already, but for other readers, on the TON thread are some "well connected" and in at least one case, "commercially connected" TON posters who are rampers...

KL was as you suggest one of the chief rampers, feeding the readers with dreams and distorted realities for which he received huge lots of thumbs ups
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 1 2016, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

My impression was different

They went for equity this time, so that they would go for bank finance for the SG plant...

and an impressive and easy - oversubscribed CR it was...unlike their neighbour

That makes good sense to me...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 13 2015, 08:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

We never know who is who in these chat rooms.. but it is of note that some like Pauloda was pumping hard had a vested interest. Here is what Moloch had to say 16/09/15 (across the road)

Hi Paul,
While your concern about Syrah and its customers is appreciated I can assure you that the current financial condition of Asmet is neither here nor there in the scheme of things for Syrah. If Asmet do not have the financial capacity to enter into an offtake arrangement then I am sure that Syrah will be fully aware of this and will be restructuring/have restructured any potential arrangement accordingly. If they do, then its not an issue that you need to concern yourself with.
It seems a bit odd to me that you would be so concerned about the Asmet arrangements of Syrah when the Triton financing seems to be under very dark clouds at the moment. Perhaps you should investigate that, and maybe the financial capacity of your proposed offtakers as well. Probably a bit more relevant to your arrangements with TON wouldn't you think?
Perhaps you could also let everyone on the SYR thread know about any marketing arrangements that you may have with TON through your investment company, Grassroots Exploration which you and the TON Chairman, Alan Jenks own and through which you are invested in Triton? Perhaps you might also want to deal with any potential bias that you may have (being the Chairmans buddy and all that) before trying to subtly (or not so) downgrade any arrangements that Syrah is seeking to enter into.


Other strong proponents are Top 20, well connected or well informed... Maybe no different to other shares, but this one has come unstuck.

As they said on YMYC a few months ago when they issued a warning about chat rooms... be careful
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 13 2015, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Melua

Interesting letter you posted from the resigning directors.

Subsequent to that, an issue has been proof of the quality of the resource. That does link to the drilling and reporting issues the directors were starting to raise in this resignation letter.

Whilst HC has judged it a Syrah conspiracy, I suspect that will also soon be revealed as part of the masquerade.

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Nov 12 2015, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I think - given the content of the reply from Bereal it must be the thanks for replying as what Bereal says is just more of the "I love TON" and I can only achieve that by hating SYR stuff that he posts on HC.

Grocondog - just look at the last few announcements by SYR and await the AGM report tomorrow for an accurate update.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Sep 10 2015, 04:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

http://asxlongtail.com/2015/09/10/regeneus...m-shareholders/

Say no more really...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Aug 9 2015, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
Which brings me to my next point. Remember right at the beginning, when SM had to fly to London to brief their London investors? That was the Rothschilds. They soon sold out. Ask yourself why?


Can you elaborate...

I was googling and noticed you were involved in this company back in 2008 ! I was in and out a bit then - and the science always sounded tantalising but it never really developed...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Aug 8 2015, 06:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

This is a nice summary of the issues for BLT..

http://asxlongtail.com/2015/08/08/benitec-fails-to-fly/
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 21 2015, 12:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
I much prefer to see an alert/ new post on a stock that alerts me to a game-changing event.


and that's the problem - Sometimes there are posts on only a few shares each day... and if they are not shares I am interested in then I just go back to HC
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Apr 20 2015, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Actually - no problems with the "lesser stocks" as I am sure you trade them..

Just the moderation problem so you dont drive away members and deter them from posting.

HC seems to be managing that well at present..

If SS wants to reinvigorate itself - it needs to be more than a handful of stocks and a handful of posters...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Apr 20 2015, 01:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

These comments may be a bit delicate and I may get moderated but...... but are related to before SS changed ownership. It relates more to the previous owners and moderators - but explains why SS declined around that time, and comes down to the basic problem with SS. It deals with a minority of ASX listed shares... Until they resolve that issue, they will not get the traffic they want to establish.

It was around that time that SS started to become less "active" and HC moved so far ahead. Moderation is important, but SS went through a stage of over moderation that pushed a lot of the high quality and regular posters out, as they tried to make reasonable comment on some threads... Then ownership changed hands and I suspect there was a progressive decline in site utilisation

Now that all of the lesser quality stocks are on their way out or gone, those who posted negatively about them are also gone as they were pushed away by SS moderators, and now post over on HC as their preferential site...

Anyone have any other thoughts as to why SS lost users... it tends to be a self fulfilling prophecy
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Jan 2 2015, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks kahuna1

but the US Fed is holding now near 4 trillion in bonds at woeful rates. Then again, they keep it zero forever they make money the US fed that is. Then again its not going to go on forever ..... its like holding your breath for as long as you can ... eventually you pass out.

Can you finish the story ... not the passing out version.

I know that no one can say when.. but how do you see this "fairy tale" or "horror story" unfolding
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Dec 17 2014, 11:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I am sure a lot of you know a lot more about mining than I do...

but I tend to understand people and behaviours..

and it comes down to what Melua says about TON has a long way to go before any banker will seriously look at funding a mine...

especially if there are inconsistencies in previous statements.

Canaccord has shown a simple error in their statement that presumably impacts on total mine size - seemingly irrelevant if they are not going to mine it according to some - but if you can that easily identify an error on the calculation for the "worlds biggest graphite mine" ... what other errors are hidden in the reports.

Apologies if I have misunderstood the significance of the "error" but a lie / error is a lie / error and once you find a lie / error in a report... the rest of the report is open to question.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 16 2014, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Actually Arty - the investors are just along for the ride and many an investor has made plenty of money (and lost it) from ASX company lies and manipulations.

It is the graphite and Vanadium buyers that will determine the true outcome of the resource. That is when the truth will be known as to how economical it is to get it out of the ground and to the point of use.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Dec 15 2014, 10:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Ciabatta

I was debating if I would comment on what was being said as the thread was very one sided.. but in essence...

Where there is smoke there is fire. There are basically two likely possibilities

1) TON is totally correct and Canaccord is totally wrong

2) TON is stretching the story a little and Canaccord has pointed that out

Has anyone asked Canaccord for clarification ?

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Oct 27 2014, 06:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

With Graphite - if we generalise it looks bad...

but the other way to look at it is that

" Only the "strongest" will survive"

and strongest means many things, cheapest production, most pure, best range, consistent supply etc etc

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Sep 27 2014, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Watch Sirtex now... but there is a better mousetrap coming - Oncosil.

It's patent allows it to do everything that Sirtex does with a better delivery method.....

They are starting with Pancreatic... but have a look at their patent...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2014, 05:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

it makes you wonder if SYR would be better suited to one of the companies with a bigger scope to manage both the Vanadium and Graphite products...

That would be a truer valuation... as we see it - rather than it just being valued on Vanadium alone
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Feb 6 2014, 05:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Interesting to google

"China petrol scooters ban"

? old news
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 6 2014, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

OSL, TIS
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Nov 23 2013, 04:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

From WSJ..

A pattern to repeats itself

  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Nov 3 2013, 06:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I know Mauldin is always negative... but this is a good quote from his latest newsletter

Let me offer you three such bubble alerts that came my way today. The first is from my friend Doug Kass, who wrote:

I will address the issue of a stock market bubble next week, but here is a tease and fascinating piece of data: Since 1990, the P/E multiple of the S&P 500 has appreciated by about 2% a year; in 2013, the S&P's P/E has increased by 18%!


  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: May 11 2013, 11:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

For a bit of fun...

check out your lost money

http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/content.aspx?id=563

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Apr 13 2013, 09:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

For every buyer there is a seller who obviously has the opposing view on the value of a share - so nothing wrong with opposing views as long as they are delivered in a way that respects the opposing view. Having said that (and without reference to any of the posters) being anonymous as we all are, brings out our Narcissistic qualities !

Some of us are TA and some of us are FA - but the truth is that almost none of us are 100% what we say we are

Even FA players who dont do TA - do SFTHA ! _ Shoot From The Hip Analysis - they look at volumes and we look at SP movement and we look at trends and do our own TA without calling it that

And for the TA - why this share, what else is happening - it is hard to ignore a bit of FA which is why everyone is reading what Melua says even if TA identified the share.

All posters are welcome ... just dont be a F wit

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 13 2013, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

General Comment

Can we get back to talking about SYR and leave the discussion about TA vs FA to the relevant threads

Sharescene has gradually declined over the years because these sort of personal attacks destroy the discussion that we are all using SS for.. add in a bit of militant over moderation in the past before they sold it out and it has battled to recover.

Lets just talk about Syrah and present the information and let everyone make their own decisions
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jan 23 2013, 02:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

melua

Thanks for all of your informative updates..

When is Balama East JORC to be released ? roughly...


  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Sep 24 2012, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

bluebug -

Googled it..for the full link

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article....jectid=10835890
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Sep 24 2012, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I meant expensive for what they contain ! Pressurised air !!

$10 - 15 per can but shop around
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Sep 24 2012, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

...

Just worth mentioning (with all of the talk about vacuum cleaners) it is best to blow out the dust, at least in the more delicate areas like the CPU - you can get cans of expensive compressed air to do the job as well and probably preferably

http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-11319_7-6240575-6.html
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Sep 22 2012, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Henrietta

before we both get caught out smile.gif

"Australian Aborigines made it to Australia anywhere between 6,000 and 50,000 years ago. No written records exist, so one can only speculate on when they first arrived. "

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Sep 22 2012, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Crystal

It may seem ridiculous... but it caught me out recently with a Dell monitor on a dual screen set up that kept doing just that - plenty of postings on the internet about all of these technical reasons... without solutions...

but once I improved the loose connection of the monitor cable to the monitor it fixed the problem ! wacko.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Sep 22 2012, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

a bit off topic... but not just Columbus

Captain Cook was many years after the fact..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_expl...on_of_Australia

When Who Ship(s) Where
1606 Willem Janszoon Duyfken Gulf of Carpentaria, Cape York Peninsula (Queensland)
1616 Dirk Hartog Eendracht Shark Bay area, Western Australia
1619 Frederick de Houtman[11] and Jacob d'Edel Dordrecht and Amsterdam Sighted land near Perth, Western Australia
1623 Jan Carstensz[12] Pera and Arnhem Gulf of Carpentaria, Carpentier River
1627 François Thijssen[13] het Gulden Zeepaerdt 1800 km of the South coast (from Cape Leeuwin to Ceduna)
1642–1643 Abel Tasman Heemskerck and Zeehaen Van Diemen's Land, later called Tasmania
1696–1697 Willem de Vlamingh[14] Geelvink, Nyptangh and the Wezeltje Rottnest Island, Swan River, Dirk Hartog Island (Western Australia)
One Dutch captain of this period who was not really an explorer but who nevertheless bears mentioning was Francisco Pelsaert, captain of the Batavia, which was wrecked off the coast of Western Australia in 1629.[15]
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Jun 13 2012, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

It depends on how you interpret it

? coming financial year is 2012 -2013
? Current financial year is now
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 5 2012, 11:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Livas

Not to be misleading but it would appear that Barry Marshall gave a lecture at the conference as a visiting expert - but that is not an endorsement of any SLA product.

Attended the session ?? In an American conference that would be with 10,000 others - are you implying some link or that Barry Marshall is giving some credibility to the product?


Lecture by Barry Marshall's Helicobacter Pioneers held in the framework of the Joint Scientific Session of the Scientific Society of Gastroenterologists of Russia, Northwestern State Medical University. II Mechnikov Central Research Institute of Gastroenterology, and "Pioneers helicobacteriosis." The program includes sessions - presentations of leading domestic and foreign scholars on the issue of H. pylori-associated diseases (B. Marshall, D. Peura, AB Zhebrun, Kornienko, EA, LB Lazebnik, VE Nazarov, O. Sablin, AN Suvorov, E . Tkachenko), including lectures ex-president of the American Gastroenterological Association David Peura. The co-chairs the session - Rector SZGMU them. II Mechnikov O. Khurtsilava, president of the Scientific Society of Gastroenterologists of Russia, Director of the Research Institute of Gastroenterology, Professor LB Lazebnik gastroenterologist and chief of the Health Committee of the Government of St. Petersburg, Professor E. Tkachenko.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 17 2012, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
Almost everyone has knocked on SLA's door over the last 5 years ... it's probably just a matter of time before the Roubles are on the table, especially given the keen support in SLA's Tomsk involvement.


These are not factual statements - in particular the statement

QUOTE
it's probably just a matter of time before the Roubles are on the table, especially given the keen support in SLA's Tomsk involvement


that you use to justify your comment that would be interpreted as being positive by ecoool2.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 16 2012, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Some of the delusional beliefs that I read on this thread - where some posters have an immovable commitment to the company and its executive / board does raise questions about either their independence or whether they really understand the situation that SLA is in.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 8 2012, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

yes...(and I dont get in to shorting shares)

and I would never suggest anyone with volume influence would manipulate the price downwards to avoid loss...
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 8 2012, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

in freefall today...

Is that closing the shorts?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 8 2012, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

and to follow up about Bio as a liver protector...

It is unproven and not studied.

With most of these "natural" products of alternative medicines, that is the difficulty. The cost of the clinical trials makes it impractical to do the study.

Some are known to be as toxic as the drugs if not more toxic and some are just not studied

http://hepatitis.about.com/od/treatment/tp/HarmfulHerbs.htm

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 8 2012, 02:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Treatment of tuberculosis is difficult. The organisms are slow growing and difficult to kill - it takes special antibiotics.

Incomplete treatment courses are why we are seeing Drug resistant Tb emerging.

With something as dangerous as Tb - you would take proven therapy, as prescribed...

There is no evidence that any preparation by SLA would be active against Tb and considering the organisms and the claimed mechanism of action of the SLA products you would not expect them to be so.

This reference may be of use:
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/tuberculo...ments-and-drugs

but I am sure the Tb doctor and nurse will have more information and be used to dealing with the side effects.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Apr 1 2012, 07:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Wren...

Guru following is not something I do.... at least not now... Like many I was burnt in my early days

It doesnt matter whether it is Fat Prophets, Huntley, Switzer, Montgomery or whoever - most of us will move towards someone of similar views as we dont like listening to or reading contrarian views. Every one of those that I mentioned and everyone else has got things wrong. Babcock and Brown was what Huntley called a "table thumping buy", AFG was written up as a buy by Macquarie just before it went under and that is just listed companies rather than trying top predict the economy

For some investors they have the ability to gather all of the information themselves...

I like the facts Mauldin presents and then I make my decision on the macro issues. I thought there were a lot of similarities to K1, but some numbers and facts that I felt supported what K1 and others had said about Spain.

Even K1 whom I have followed for years... I just dont get the charting stuff (cause or effect), but I am happy to put that aside for the stuff that I want.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Apr 1 2012, 10:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

http://www.johnmauldin.com/

Another good write up by Mauldin (from his newsletter this week) confirming the views of K1 and others on Spain

Spain is in a recession, though only down an estimated 1.7% in 2012, if things go well. Unemployment is at 23%, which is higher than Greece for the latest Greek data that I can find. But more than half of young Spaniards (over 51%) are out of work, creating a lost generation that has been hardest hit by Spain's economic woes. The total number of unemployed has climbed above five million, and Spanish under-25 unemployment has nearly tripled, from 18% just four years ago.

............

Spain had its own housing bubble, in most ways worse than that of the US. In 2006, the Guardian wrote that 50% of new EU jobs had been created in Spain during the previous five years. But in 2011 housing starts were down by 94% and new mortgages by 81% (IMF, 2011). The IMF notes that "The stock of unsold units may take around another four years to clear. The lowest estimates of the stock of unsold units are at close to 700,000 units, with considerable regional variations but with a downward adjustment that has only started at the end of 2010. These only include newly completed units, and do not fully include units repossessed by financial institutions, unsold secondary market houses, or unfinished units."

The Wall Street Journal suggests the number may be more than double that:

"Some 1.5 million unfinished, unsold or unwanted residential units stand scattered across the country, products of a still-deflating housing bubble that threatens to undermine Spain's broader economy for years to come. It is the hangover after an epic fiesta, a period Spaniards now refer to as "cuando pensábamos que éramos ricos"—'when we thought we were rich.'"

............

In any event, there is widespread agreement that the regional Spanish banks, the cajas, are bankrupt, as they made massive loans for construction and mortgages. The government has taken some action, forcing 45 caja savings banks that were threatened by bankruptcy due to bad property loans to consolidate down to 14. But although bank regulators have estimated that Spanish banks will need €26 billion in extra capital, many skeptics believe this severely underestimates future losses and that the government may have to step in with a much larger bailout for the financial sector. The Bank of Spain contends that construction debt to banks stands at some €400 billion, of which repayment of €176 billion is questionable, with €31.6 billion of those considered nonperforming. (WSJ)

Spanish private debt is 220% of GDP, dwarfing government debt, which is high and rising. So not only are banks being forced to raise capital and reduce their loan books, consumers and businesses are also overextended. The government wants to increase taxes or reduce spending by 17% to get the deficit down from over 8% to 5.5%, a combination that is not geared for growth.

...........

a newsletter worth reading...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Mar 7 2012, 02:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I sometimes receive a pdf from those who are making them on a MAC computer and it is incompatible on a PC

http://forums.adobe.com/thread/285691

This blog is a bit old - but anyone else having difficulty

I think the biggest problem is convincing the MAC user that they have a problem (I have tried opening it on Windows XP and Windows 7 - all with the latest Adobe updates). I receive inumerable other pdfs without difficulty

When I try it in NitroReader - it says insufficient memory available

Anyone else seen the problem and any solutions... Any MAC users any ideas I can tell the person sending them to me ?

Thanks
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Feb 7 2012, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

One of my computers just got hit with this Windows update problem

Running XP and had previously downloaded IE8 (but not using) seems to be the combination

iertutil.dll not found

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/1858791

The fix is excellent
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

myshares
Posted on: Feb 4 2012, 04:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Agree... best not to hang around in this market but to move in and out.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 4 2012, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

K1

Had that feeling of deja vu reading your post and searched back to your posts on SS in August - Sept 2008....

You called it well then and the warnings about the US sound similar...

Thanks for all of the postings
  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Feb 4 2012, 12:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Wayward1 and arty

can you elaborate on what you mean by rangebound based on the options ?

Apologies if it is a basic question but I am sure I am like a lot of other readers of this thread who read it to pick up on your expertise even though the technicals are not their strength...
  Forum: Macro Factors

myshares
Posted on: Jan 26 2012, 12:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

This is an interesting link on Europe

http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/davos/?hpt=hp_c1

  Forum: Investment Discussion

myshares
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 07:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

wub.gif

Lost for words
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Squiggs mate !

With that last post sealed with a kiss I am not sure what more I can say.

I just dont see any conspiracy theories - only common sense.

Look at the numbers and % of votes in each camp.

I know you should never let the facts ruin a good conspiracy story but these investment bankers and hedge fund play this game all of the time.

It isnt about morals or ethics - it is about winning... and they have !

There is no point losing finanically on principle. We have all had enough opportunity cost with this share - no matter how much I loved it. Now is the time to take our money and look at the other opportunities for the next 2 years rahter than sit in a depressed SP and company.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 04:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

mulgoaman

More fulltime the last 2 months... and before that working with investment bankers....so still running CST as no doubt they have been.

For those on the No vote ....I havent heard how you are going to run the company. Radford and Rothel are still going to be there, with Bennetts on the board, Pitcher as Chairman and Catanzaro with them on the whole scheme.

How are you going to change the "direction" of the company - sure appoint a CMO but who does the CMO report to.

How do you change the board structure... difficult and disruptive. It will take time and effort and the SP will reflect that. As D'Lids said - it will take a long time for the company to recover

The people you are looking at to run our (?) company are the same people that have sold it out from under us....
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

klem

The buying at 3.76 would be hedge funds. Dont forget that Centaurus owns > 11% and as a hedge fund it and other hedge funds are going to be very aggressively pushing this through.

For them a buy at 3.76 and sell at 3.80 is worthwhile apart from giving them the security of their 11% not falling over.

You guys need to be doing the maths !

Centaurus and other hedge funds 13%+
Board 27%

Then remember that Gavin Ross is not a single voter. He has clients that he advises but who are part of the 38% that CSAG had - and clearly not all of that 38% were still on the No vote...

Some of those who have changed from No to Yes have posted on SS..... and some like Squiggs who obviously wasnt CSAG - took their money to run and buy in at a lower price.

In S of A's usually 60% of shareholders vote - it doesnt take much for that 40 million shares to become significant with very little leakage required from CSAG to hit the 75%.... and remember that CST and QI's investment banks knew exactly how many votes have said what.

The bigger picture is not about conspiracy theories but investment banking and negotiating - who has the votes !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
The bottom line is that after thinking hard about all the information we've received over the last few weeks I was overestimating the upside relative to the risk of getting there. And getting there was going to take 4 or 5 years. Anything could happen to derail the stock between now and then. Management change for a start, higher R&D etc

But I would have preferred not to have to make this decision and just ride the stock to 10m tests, and cop it on the chin if it failed.

My valuation was $5, probably a bit less now, so I still like it but $3.80 is paying me 40x current earnings in an uncertain world and I'm just not willing to remain on board post a NO vote.


Above is one of D'Lids posts... and that says it all

Things have changed from a few months ago - and you will recall D'Lids saying he met with CST and it changed his views...

We all have to be responsive to the information that we get. I dont think the information that Forrest or Gavin received is any different to what I had in my phone call or those who went to the meetings. it is making a judgement on it and as D'Lids says - things are different from the last few weeks information delivery.

For those taking the No"" vote - how do you see the company being managed going forward. There is no point voting your money away on principle. How do you see the company restructure working (recognising that for the last 2 months the executive have been busy selling the company rather than selling QFT).
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 05:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I have to admit to not watching the webcast ! I was one of the people that TR called and we spoke about 10 days before that, and then I heard what had been said to others less medical. I had no need to.

You need to remember that there are more players in this that just Squiggs, Rog and Vic !

What about Centaurus, What about Gavin Ross, What about the 22+ million shares on the board, Did CSAG 38% change?

From my point of view this was about some difficult decisions that I wasnt privvy to but I accept the outcome recognising that not one of those mentioned above would be after a bad outcome ( I can say this as Squiggs said he sold his shares).

Yes - this company had great potential but that lessened in recent months due to management.

If the yes vote had gone through at a premium like it has - then I am better off than if 3.55 went through

If the No vote had gone through, I could have lived with it - but it would have been a punishing 1-2 years as hedges washed out and management (new) proved itself.

and why do we have the Hedge fund scenario - management !!!
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 05:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

So what has changed in the last 3 months

In one word it is management (Executive and Board)

3 months or so ago before this S of A – Management were golden. We put up with Pitcher and his sexist old school comments about women, we accepted that Radford could do it all from discovery to developing to marketing (Ok… some of us did) and we believed them that they were not going to sell this company.

In 3 months things have changed, and even more so as it has heated up.

To the CSAG’s credit they kept it clean and played the facts (or at least what we had been told) and not the man. CST management on the other hand sought to actively sell our company, and at the same time trashing the information that we had previously obtained from them (and playing the man!). Many of you would have had the scaremongering calls, to scare you into selling the company by the very people that we are looking to who would manage this company going forward.

We all know that management is the key to any company investment. I cannot see how anyone can believe that they have the same confidence in the management of CST that they had 3-4 months ago.


If you stepped back now and looked at management performance in the last 3 months... whatever this company was, would you invest in them ?


  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Strange posting earlier as to the CSAG team buying prior to negotiating a higher price for all shareholders.

Firstly - many of us (Squiggs aside) were members of CSAG

Secondly - knowing Vic personally I can assure you of his highest integrity and that he would never have had dealings in what would be tantamount to insider trading. The same applies to other shareholders who contributed to CSAG in other formats.

Clearly CSAG had high aspirations for the future direction of the company - but those aspirations did change during this process. It would have been foolish to totally disregard everything the companies own directors and executive were saying as they gradually released more information to the public domain. The CSAG valuation was based on what we knew initially (this was never a company that told us much), and as you will all agree the last 2 months with the CSO and CEO spending all of their time selling the company has been revealing in many ways.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

5 c for a million shares does make a difference - $50,000

but if you are a hedge fund it is more surety for your first 10 million shares
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

I have known this company for a long time, and have posted extensively over the years.

I will be accepting the Scheme of Arrangement offer that has been made at $3.80 (having been reluctant at $3.55).

I first came to know Quantiferon working in the hospital sector and recognising its potential. It does have great potential but CST as a company has stumbled over the last 1-2 years as they have hit marketing obstacles. In retrospect, we can see that the R & D and marketing issues should have been addressed differently, but things are always easier in retrospect.

For me, the big reason to take the $3.80 is management. We have a board and executive that want to exit, and everyone knows that is what makes or breaks a company. It is that simple.

Whatever their reasons, whether it is that they don’t think they can do it alone as they don’t have the expertise and resources, or that they have lost their drive, it doesn’t matter. If the board and executive have taken the sell option, you would need to make such huge changes to move forward to the company in its present format, it would be disruptive and a major potential risk.

There are many risk benefits in the exit price, and $3.80 makes it marginally more palatable than it was at $3.55.

To Radford and Rothel – they have achieved a lot getting CST to this point, and I wish them well. Yes, the outcome could have been better for them and us, but the time has come.

Sometimes the hardest thing when investing is

Knowing when to sell

Or when to hang in there to

Reap

Potential rewards

I

Am sure the time has

Now come to sell

  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 5 2011, 03:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Squiggs

I had this discussion with some friends on the weekend...

They were "older investors" who vote with the mail back rather than on line and they vote once and as late as possible.

That is certainly what I do when I have a SPP to participate in, and these guys had the same view of casting an important vote. By mail they only get one decision. None of them used chat rooms like SS, although some had Intelligent investor which covers the stock.

I can see why there are implications regarding your connections to the company given your posting profile and content - but then again I am a part owner of the company as well !
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 3 2011, 09:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

It is interesting that it is only at the time of takeover that they have recognised the need for more R & D.

That suggests that the board didnt appreciate it - but they were told by Qiagen.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 3 2011, 12:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

This SofA offer will also cause a rethink of CST strategy going forward if it fails.

Management itself is articulating the need for more R & D (they had 20 million in the bank and didnt use it) and the need for a CMO (presumably marketing)!

You have to ask why have they only realised now - has Qiagen told them how to manage CST better ?

Also - is it unusual that Pitcher is silent in this process - I dont have the experience of other S of A's to know if the Chairman speaks out or is he too busy sharpening his sword ?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 2 2011, 12:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks Dr D

Competition is part of life and Generics are part of the business of pharmaceutical and medical device companies.

It is interesting how Tspot isn't on the horizon as competition and featured prominently in the selling CST debate.

The reason is that it is inferior to use in the testing due to cost and logistical reasons. Those same limitations are why CST had problems with the second generation QFT. It is difficult to use a test whether it is second generation QFT or Tspot that has a 4 hour time window.

Hence why the third generation QFT IT is the winner and that has a patent that goes through to 2023. The risk from patents expiring in late 2016 is being blown out of proportion, and is either an excuse for management not knowing how to deal with it (marketing etc) or a ploy to sell the company cheaply to Qiagen.

Management has to deal with that issue of potential competition from 2016 like management of any company would.

We still come back to management of CST being the main issue - not the patents (although it could be a selling the company strategy as well !)
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jul 1 2011, 12:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Mrcurly

Thanks for the summary of your impressions of the meeting.

In essence they are offering us the "current value" with no recognition of what is ahead in terms of growth and success.

This is phase 3 for this company, the first QFT couldnt discriminate from BCG vaccine, the second had time constraints that limited its acceptance, and only in the last couple of years have we got QFT IT in to the major USA and Japanese markets.

Patents and competition are part of life - why are we on Sharescence and not Sharesguru, Hot Copper or elsewhere. It is marketing and the product. All companies need to manage that risk. QFT IT has a five year head start on the market (excluding the 2 years that have formed the base) - that has to be exploited !

Perhaps what we are seeing is what you allude to with uncertainty for the future in terms of Radford and Rothel being able to take the company forward.

At some stage we have to look back on the last 2 years and ask was the company taken down the correct management path. Was marketing correct ? They were heavily backed by many in terms of understanding the Tb market but looking back - we (CST) have stumbled in successfully marketing QFT. Going forward, we need to correct that and take a new look at the executive with due respect to the current board and executive skills which need to be preserved.

We have heard from the meetings about the need to increase R & D.... obvious now, but it is only in the last 18 months that we have seen consistent failure to bring new products forward. QI has obviously indicated that to them - and we are hearing it said now by Radford at meetings.

I think CST can move forward with issues at board and executive level addressed. QI can clearly do it but so could a refreshed CST..
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 26 2011, 06:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

D'Lids

I think we all have different ways of expressing ourselves.

You have a more formal approach in terms of comments about the direction of the company, Bigmumma is a bit more casual.

I think many of us share concerns about the IE and its calculations, as you yourself have expressed formally, and Bigmumma and others have chosen to express more emotively.

The common theme is that we are all disappointed the company is in this situation and would like to have seen a more profitable exit from our investment. The directors / executive have every right to the dollars they will gather from their work over the years, but that is a separate issue to how we all feel with board the chosen direction of the company.

From my point of view, it is the disappointment that misplaced support in the executive / board over the last 2 years is now coming back to bite us.

For the last few years, before you came to SS, we had the 100% supporting and trusting of managements strategy group (I was in that group) and the SS group that felt that management was missing points on marketing and development. It looks like the group previously critical of management was right ! It is worth noting that this thread has always been a place for discussion and voicing of opinions (on that subject - anyone noticed that Squiggs disappeared as soon as the IE came out ! I guess he could be FIFO as there have been gaps before, or he might have looked up what Squiggs means in Urban slang !)

Back to my rant...The CST Management critical group were not right just because of this sale to QI, they were right because it took us too long to develop the product market and that left us (CST shareholders) vulnerable to takeover at a time that we were "on the crest of a wave"

I think everyone should feel they can use this thread to express their views, emotive or otherwise. Obviously it cannot be anything that becomes legal, but we should be able to express what we feel.

Bigmumma called them "frugal" - yes they were. We all remember the days they ran (and still do) this company frugally. SKYPE rather than phone calls and economy travel, low pay and no options. We couldnt have asked any more during the development stage.

The Radford deal question that Bigmumma asks is simply "what is Radford's deal going forward with QI" A reasonable question but actually on a 40 million payout for the sale of CST (well deserved for his work) - it doesnt make much difference.

As for your comments, D'Lids we all hold them in high regard and we look forward to what you, Bigmumma and everyone bring back with their perceptions from the Radford meeting.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 24 2011, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Maybe top 200 holders but over in the West we didnt get a contact or an invite !

Did anyone outside of Vic / NSW get an invite or some contact ?

? snail mail still coming
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: Jun 2 2011, 08:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks elleburra

The last paragraph says it all

Freeman said: “We’re doing activism differently now.” The firm limits the size of its positions to 5% and, as the risk arbitrage funds invest around hard catalysts, Centaurus now waits until after a bid announcement, when it might agitate for a higher price or a rival bidder.


Although CST seems so good they can step over their 5% ?
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 27 2011, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks draughtsman

Valuations like everything else require assumptions.

One thing the majority seem to agree on is that it is not $3.55 or $3.75.

Most people on this thread seem to say that to them the current value is easily >$5 (and that is consistent with D'lids valuation he posted) or they will take the "risk" of the company under new board direction.

That is certainly the impression from those that I interact with who are CSAG registered and do not read this thread. In total they (including my holdings) represent about 1% of the company shareholdings and none have sold.
  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 12 2011, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

Thanks D'Lids

DCF stuff is interesting but like most things makes lots of assumptions.

I prefer my simple clinical approach.

Lets assume

1) 100 million shares

2) QFT price of $20 until 2020 (unlikely but with currency, rising test cost, and being very conservative I am happy with that)

3) QFT market for Tb testing only is 50 million in the developed world and a conservative 30% can be achieved (based on already 40% in Australia with no effort)

4) Assume net profit of 60%



CST sales are therefore 15 million tests at $20 = $300m sales = $180 million profit

Profit per share is therefore $1.80

Assume a P/E of 6 to be ridiculously conservative and recognizing that there may be new tests and other income…

Share price would be $10.80, so assuming Mr Market gets it right

I don't understand how you can have a terminal value of $5 something ???? even when I am being very conservative




You need to remember that it is very unlikely that there will be a better test for latent Tb which is the main market. PCR and other currently known testing techniques are not able to detect latent Tb….

So the test will still be valid in 2020…

What about patents – we know that there was going to be an even better QFT version coming out and even if someone finds a new antigen – QFT is still the vehicle to test it by…

Discount rates and other jargon aside.... it just doesnt fit with my very conservative clinical estimates


  Forum: By Share Code

myshares
Posted on: May 3 2011, 06:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 155

QUOTE
I thought it was particularly interesting that even allowing for growth, in 2020 you are still only looking at 36% of the market.
I assume your intention was to err on the side a caution (conservative as always!).


Lets not forget that in Australia they now have about 40% of the market for Tb testing with very little effort in marketing to anyone other than the laboratories. Add to that the name Quantiferon is synonymous with a test for Tb. In some states like WA they have more like 70%+ of the Tb testing market.

Assuming good marketing (which requires a change in the board and executive) - there is no way that it should take until 2020 to achieve 36% of the market worldwide.... but I am happy to be conservative, not that I have lost the sting in my tail.
  Forum: By Share Code


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