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TLS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Feb 14 2020, 04:47 PM
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Ex bureaucrats behaving thus (from a minnow Telco called 5GN that IPO'ed a year ago and now moving elsewhere (data centres)
QUOTE
As previously highlighted, a key feature of today’s Australian ICT industry is the ongoing penetration of new access technology from NBNCo™ which in FY19 has connected to over 6* million premises. This represents a growth of 50% from 2018 and this development is now bringing significant disruption to the business landscape, with NBN services now actively promoted across both residential and business customers.

This outcome is notably disappointing given most corporate premises already enjoy competitive offers through many service providers who have historically invested in providing high value fibre network services




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 14 2020, 04:37 PM
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Telstra chief executive Andy Penn ... took the opportunity to explain ...the thinking behind the creation of an $11.7 billion separate unit that may be spun off in the future.

Penn talked in some detail about InfraCo, a collection of infrastructure businesses with annual revenue of about $4.4 billion. It is responsible for key network assets including data centres and exchanges, most of Telstra's fibre network, the copper and hybrid fibre coaxial networks, international sub-sea cables, poles, ducts and pipes.

Experts in the booming infrastructure space say InfraCo is the jewel in Telstra's crown. They believe it is inevitable the collection of businesses under the InfraCo umbrella will be sold by Telstra either in one bundle or as separate entities.

Given declarations by the government and competition regulators that Telstra cannot own NBN Co if it is involved in the telco infrastructure business, it is logical to think it would be in the interests of Telstra shareholders for InfraCo to be fully separated from Telstra.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-12b-hid...20200214-p540tu

so then, theoretically, in 2023 it could bid for NBN?

Watching but not waiting. Ex bureaucrats, the lot of them.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 14 2020, 04:30 PM
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Telstra chief executive Andy Penn had previously said the NBN Co would reduce Telstra's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation by $3 billion by 2022. But on Thursday he said the cost so far had been $2 billion and the impact was 60 per cent of the way through.

This tells you the impact will be about $3.5 billion, which is the total earnings lost from giving up control of its broadband network to the government-owned wholesale operator..

Which, some say, may be masking a rebound, minor but nevertheless there



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 20 2020, 07:20 AM
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QUOTE
Telstra shares are within striking distance of $4 a share after rallying 10 per cent since the start of the year. This is despite the fact that earnings per share and dividend per share estimates for both the 2020 and 2021 financial year have remained fairly static at around 20¢-21¢ a share and 16¢ a share respectively.

Yet despite the prospect of flattish earnings per share growth, investor enthusiasm for the stock has lifted its prospective price-earnings multiple to above 18 times from about 14 times a year ago, while the dividend yield has sunk to around 4 per cent from around 5.5 per cent.

This speaks to the attraction of yield – and the scramble to get it however you can – in an environment where the Australian 10-year bond is yielding 1.17 per cent.

It also speaks to the power of lower discount rates to plump the value of projected cash flows and justify higher stock valuations




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  trisail  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 08:15 AM
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Foolish x2 post



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE
Given that TLS shares are up 2.71% today at $3.71 a share (at the time of writing), it’s clear the market is responding well to the ASX’s largest telco.

Telstra shares had a phenomenal run over most of 2019 – rising from $2.77 in January to over $4 by August. However, this momentum seemed to stall shortly afterwards, and Telstra shares have been trending lower ever since, hitting $3.40 by September and hovering around the $3.50–3.60 range until this week.

The source of this goodwill was an investor day presentation the company hosted this morning. In this presentation, Telstra reaffirmed its FY20 earnings guidance, in which it expects to see its underlying earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increase by $500 million. This number excludes the ongoing impact of the NBN, which has been wreaking havoc on Telstra’s books for years now.

It appears that Telstra’s T22 cost cutting strategy, which was announced a few years ago, has been making significant progress and is on track for cumulative savings of around $2.5 billion by FY22.

What about Telstra’s dividend?
More importantly for shareholders, Telstra also reaffirmed that it expects free cash flow to come in between $3.3 billion and $3.8 billion for FY20. Whilst Telstra did not provide any guidance for its 2020 dividends today, we can look back and see the company’s FY19 dividends amounted to a cost of $2.259 billion. This indicates to me there is more than enough free cash flow to sustainably cover a continuation of Telstra’s current 16 cents per share payout going forward.

That will be good news for long-term shareholders who have endured big cuts to their TLS dividend payments in recent years.

Foolish takeaway
Nothing is certain in investing, but from where I’m looking, Telstra’s dividend payments look very sustainable at their current levels. Unless a major shock or black swan event hits Telstra down the road, I can see a path back to growth for the Telstra dividend going forward looking at today’s numbers.

Motley Fool



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 14 2019, 01:13 PM
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TLS up 1.5% today.
Nothing in announcements, why would they suddenly get back in favour???
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 22 2019, 06:04 PM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/09/16/dis...bile-operators/

This, in turn, would put pressure on the company’s margins and add downside risk to dividends. If, however, the court opposes the merger then this would entrench Telstra’s leadership in mobile, the broker asserts, and increase the potential for upside to ARPU in the medium term.

Furthermore, if the court decision is appealed, and court action continues, this could be construed as positive for Telstra’s near-term earnings, providing more time to build a leadership position in 5G. On a 50% chance of the merger ultimately proceeding Morgan Stanley retains a target of $3.20 for Telstra.

There are two Buy ratings, three Hold and one Sell (Morgan Stanley) for Telstra on FNArena’s database. The consensus target is $3.90, signalling 9.6% upside to the last share price. The dividend yield on FY20 and FY21 forecasts is 4.5% and 4.4% respectively.

TPG Telecom has one Buy (Ord Minnett), three Hold and one Sell (Credit Suisse). The consensus target is $6.42, suggesting -6.9% downside to the last share price.
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at cross road for TLS as well???

 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:24 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 28 2019, 10:55 AM

Not a good day to deliver bad news

QUOTE
Telstra delivers FY19 results in line with expectations,
with strong progress against T22 strategy
• Strong progress on T22 strategy in first year
o reduced the number of Consumer & Small Business plans in market from 1800 to 20
o introduced no lock-in plans across fixed and mobile and removed excess data charges
in Australia
o launched commercial 5G service
o 7.7 million (22 per cent) drop in calls to call centres
• Total Income, EBITDA and NPAT in line with expectations
• $456 million (6 per cent) reduction in underlying fixed costs
• Continued customer growth, with 378,000 net retail postpaid mobile services added including
181,000 from Belong
• Final dividend of 8 cents per share, total dividend of 16 cents per share for FY19

Thursday 15 August – Telstra today released its full year results for financial year 2019, which were in
line with guidance and market expectations and showed strong progress against the T22 strategy.

- On a reported basis Total Income1 decreased 3.6 per cent to $27.8 billion, EBITDA decreased 21.7
per cent to $8.0 billion, and NPAT decreased 39.6 per cent to $2.1 billion.
- On a guidance basis2 Total Income1 decreased 2.6 per cent to $27.8 billion, EBITDA (excluding
restructuring costs) decreased 11.4 per cent to $9.4 billion.
- Underlying EBITDA3 decreased 11.2 per cent to $7.8 billion.

The largest reason for the decline in EBITDA was the impact of the nbn, with Telstra absorbing around
$600 million of negative recurring EBITDA headwind4 in the period. Underlying EBITDA decreased
approximately 4 per cent excluding the in-year nbn headwind. To date Telstra estimates the nbn has
adversely impacted EBITDA by approximately $1.7 billion since FY16, and estimates it is around 50 per
cent of the way through the recurring financial impact of the nbn.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 28 2019, 10:55 AM
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QUOTE
"The problem is that it took 10 years between the time that the NBN was envisaged in 2009 and now, so the rest of the world has bypassed us ... ..... It is going to take us another five to 10 years to actually get rid of the damage, and it will cost another $20 billion or $30 billion in order to get where we actually need to be.”
David Soldani, Chief Technology Officer, Huawei Australia
- yeah, but we are a first world country with high costs (not China), and large surface area and sparse, unevenly distributed population (not Singapore)




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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