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China the monster.
nipper
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 17 2020, 10:41 AM

QUOTE
as the Chinese boycott goes on
.... and this is where it gets blurred. It's all very well
- for ambassadors to express displeasure at extended restrictions for OS visitors from certain places/ regions (in keeping with WHO procedures) (and I guess that's the Ambassador's job, in public at least), and
- for random call-outs https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coro...alians/11918962 which are not helpful, or
- for trying to shame those trying to help because a cockroach was found in a quarantine facility.

But really, folks. The Chinese authorities, having been on the back foot, have responded as best they know how, I guess. And the Chinese people are participants in the social engineering exercise (a mix of 'tremble and obey' and do something for yourself because you'll be lucky to receive appropriate and timely intervention if things go wrong).

My wife (now passed) was from HK and so I can claim some knowledge if not insight. Communities everywhere can be deeply suspicious and have folk remedies; the Chinese with their herbs and natural remedies are no different. The courtesy of wearing a mask is ingrained and, whether effective or not, was a way of signalling poor health in the way of a cold or flu; a good bit of social conditioning. When we visited HK, and I got run down, the hospital's response as a horse needle full of some concoction in the bum (it worked).

The economic fall-out from the COVID-19 virus is showing up in many ways. Globalisation may well take a hit. Supply chain integration and just-in-time production dependencies may well be rejigged. Travel may not be a boom industry (cruise ships; wow!). Poor economic performance will bring on stimulus that will favour some sectors but not all.

Interesting times.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 11:08 AM
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In much of the climate debates, some research and comments are dismissed because the organisation putting the data or comments out there is funded by an organisation or individual , and thus is extremely biased.
I am still waiting for these very same people to call into question the WHO. From CNBC


QUOTE
The current president of the WHO has been calling for the blame, hate and stigma being directed at China to stop'“We must stop stigma and hate,” he said Saturday during an address at the Munich Security Conference.

“It’s easy to blame, it’s easy to politicize, it’s harder to tackle a problem together and find solutions together,” he added. “We will all learn lessons from this outbreak, but now is not the time for reclamations or politicization.”


No one seems to consider that the Pres may be atad biased.
China is second largest contributor to WHo ( source ).

China is also the largest aid donor to Ethiopia. from RTE

QUOTE
A McKinsley report in 2017 showed that the growth in Chinese investment has been uniformly high, at an average growth rate of more than 52% a year in Ethiopia.

The study found that there are more than 10,000 Chinese-owned firms operating in Africa, with around 90% of them privately owned.

To pay for all of these major developments, Ethiopia has taken out massive loans from China, with state policy banks extending it to more than $12.1 billion since 2000, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University of the United States.

There is no escaping the level of Chinese interest and building, but there is also no ignoring the stumbling blocks that Ethiopia has hit. These opportunities have come at a high price with worries about the sustainability of the country.



Ethiopia does not have enough money or time to pay China. The African nation has racked up tens of billions of dollars of debt, with reports that about half of Ethiopia’s external debt is owed to China, with government debt standing at 59%.


So its not really all that surprising that Who is going to bat for China.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 10:41 AM
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This morning i went to visit my dentist, who is of Hong Kong Chinese extraction, but born here.
He has recently come back from Honk Kong after travelling over there with his parents , who live in Melbourne.
When you are in the chair with a mouth full of instruments, it is a one way conversation, so one is obliged to listen and be silent.
He was telling me that the Chinese community in Melbourne have basically stopped going out because of fears of corona virus.
His parents have stopped going to china town restaurants, wear those silly masks everywhere, and a re paranoid about even visiting friends.
His father is a retired pharmacist, so he should know that those cheap face masks are totally useless against the virus once they get a little damp (which takes a ew minutes of normal breathing.)
He said he tried to have a rational conversation with both parents, but his father would have none of it.
He said restaurants in Chinatown have closed because not only people like his parents are not eating there, but the huge numbers of Chinese students have gone missing, as well as swathes of Chinese tourists who would normally be eating there.
He said some of the restaurants will not reopen under the current owners, and as the Chinese boycott goes on, more restaurants will join the list.

Mick




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alonso
post Posted: Feb 13 2020, 02:46 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 13 2020, 12:38 PM

On the other hand, what better opportunity to send heretics off into isolation?



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 13 2020, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE
On 05 March, some 3,000 delegates from all corners of the country are supposed to assemble at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to kick off 10 days of meetings. It's the sort of mass gathering that, if it were anything else, would have been already cancelled due to coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Since late January, sports and cultural events across China have been scuttled. Cinemas are closed, schools are shut, and the gates of theme parks are locked, such is the aversion to allowing group gatherings while COVID-19 continues to spread. Most restaurants and bars in major cities haven't reopened.

But plans for the National People's Congress, a huge meeting often dubbed abroad as China's rubber-stamp parliament, remain underway.

"Cancelling it hasn't happened since the Cultural Revolution," Chinese University of Hong Kong's political analyst Willy Lam said. "I think at this stage, the possibility of cancellation is big, because there's not only the risk of spreading the infection, but also if the deputies [delegates] were together in Beijing, they may post hostile and embarrassing questions to the top officials about the outbreak."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/with...ilemma/11960724

This could be a blow to prestige, to the "authority" and the Junta's claims to legitimacy



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 17 2019, 07:27 AM
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Really strong interview by Kyle Bass of Robert Spalding, who was defence attache at the US Embassy in Beijing and who has penned a book on his assessment of China and the Chinese Communist Party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl5279dWqGs

I consider Scott Morrision to be a fool, and his defence of Gladys Liu by claiming any examination of her activites to be "racist" and offensive to 1.4b Chinese and over a million ethnic chinese Australians only confirmed that to me. His response was a word perfect rendition of the CCP's main diversionary tactic.

(h/t to Timmeh at MB)



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"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 7 2019, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE
China — or, rather, the Chinese regime — is in trouble. Tuesday's gigantic parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic looked like something out of the late Brezhnev era: endless military pomp and grey old men. Hong Kong is in its fourth straight month of protests, marked and stained by this week's shooting of a teenage demonstrator. The Chinese economy is growing at its slowest rate in 27 years, even when going by the overstated official figures.

Meantime, capital is fleeing China — an estimated $US1.2 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in the past decade — while foreign investors sour on Chinese markets. Beijing's loudly touted Belt and Road Initiative looks increasingly like a swamp of corruption, malinvestment and bad debt. Its retaliatory options in the face of Donald Trump's trade war are bad and few.

And General Secretary Xi Jinping has created a cult-of-personality dictatorship in a style unseen since Mao Zedong, China's last disastrous emperor
- Brett Stephens; New York Times

... put that way, is it a lumbering beast, prone to collapse? That would have to be the US wish, though any such reversal won't be silo'ed. Messiness; almost guaranteed,



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 1 2019, 06:20 PM
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Prez Xi must be happy with the 70th.

USSR fell apart at 69. (Officially 1922 to 1991; though the 1917 revolution(s) was the start and it was all over by 1989)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 9 2019, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE
In the second quarter of this year, official Chinese data showed economic growth of 6.2 per cent, close to Beijing’s target and within a percentage point of what it has reported every quarter for the past four and a half years.

A few months earlier, satellites monitoring Chinese industrial hubs suggested parts of the world’s largest trading economy were contracting. An index of Chinese industrial production created by a multinational manufacturer was pointing to lower growth than official figures. And a web-search index used to gauge how many workers return to their jobs after the Lunar New Year holidays was down sharply from a year earlier.

Beneath China’s stable headline economic numbers, there is a growing belief among economists, companies and investors around the world that the real picture is worse than the official data. That has analysts and researchers crunching an array of alternative data -- from energy consumption to photos taken from space -- for a more accurate reading.

Their conclusion: China’s economy isn’t tanking, but it is almost certainly weaker than advertised. Some economists who have dissected China’s GDP numbers say more accurate figures could be up to 3 percentage points lower, based on their analysis of corporate profits, tax revenue, rail freight, property sales and other measures of activity that they believe are harder for the government to fudge.

China, whose GDP topped $US13 trillion last year, is still growing, and the alternative data points to that. It indicates the deceleration is happening in areas such as manufacturing. In many cases, alternative indicators have previewed the path of official data and show the depth of the challenges Chinese authorities face....
WSJ
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...d7a7c76e55bbf63



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 16 2019, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE
"So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed. You don't see it in the China-reported GDP growth numbers yet. I suspect that sooner or later it will be visible”

Magnus Nicolin, CEO, Ansell Ltd




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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