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APX, APPEN LIMITED
plastic
post Posted: Mar 20 2019, 07:49 AM
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Haven't studied it to know but my guess if you haven't got the necessary infrastructure, maybe a super computer or two, then all you're doing is wave riding.




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 15 2019, 08:00 PM
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QUOTE
"The boom in artificial intelligence is only just starting in our view, and we think the momentum is growing"

Mark Brayan, CEO, Appen Ltd
- but does APX have a unique defendable position?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 28 2019, 10:05 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 25 2019, 10:52 AM

Some coverage by EthicalEquities - Appen Ltd (ASX:APX) Initiation Report and FY 2018 Full Year Results - note disclosure "holder of APX shares"
https://ethicalequities.com.au/blog/appen-l...l-year-results/
extract
QUOTE
Valuation considerations

Make no mistake: the current ~40x forward multiple is a premium multiple which very few ASX companies enjoy – which means a lot of earnings expectation is baked into Appen’s share price and that any material underachievement versus market expectations could trigger a savage decrease in the share price.

High growth, relatively expensive companies like APX are also likely to be sold off during the market’s “Risk Off” phases – as occurred when Appex’s share price declined by 35% between the end of August and the end of October last year; and these high growth companies are generally considerably more volatile than more stable Blue Chip companies (though try telling that to long-suffering shareholders of AMP, Telstra and the big four banks).

It must be noted, however, that not all companies are cut from the same cloth. It’s easy to compare APX’s forward P/E multiple to other (especially more mature and non-growth) stocks and conclude that Appen is very expensive. While true prima facie (in the context that APX commands a higher multiple), this exercise ignores comparative growth rates between the companies. It is useful to use a PEG Ratio (which incorporates future growth rates) to make comparisons like this more meaningful, and personally I’d rather own a company with a 40x forward P/E and a 20% EPS growth rate (PEG Ratio = 2) than a company on a 15 forward P/E and a 5% EPS growth rate (PEG Ratio = 3).




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 09:30 PM
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In Reply To: lgrif's post @ Feb 25 2019, 03:09 PM

Igrif - it's just a bad habit of mine digging into news/researching/etc while watching the markets biggrin.gif I then post that info here in case anyone else is interested and also as a future reference for me. I don't really spend that much time on doing this though. Good to know someone is taking note. Thanks



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 05:53 PM
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Posts: 5,381
Thanks: 1960


QUOTE
Tech stock Appen, which develops annotated datasets for machine learning and artificial intelligence, soared 18 per cent to a fresh record after smashing earnings forecasts for its 2018 full-year profit, and delivering a big earnings upgrade for 2019.

The company, which was started by Julie and Chris Vonwiller in 2998 from the spare room of their Sydney home, is in a sweet spot of global technology.

The company uses speech and tech recognition technology to build datasets for a range of use cases, everything from chatbots, virtual assistances and translation systems, through to video search, internet search, social media, autonomous vehicles, facial recognition and even the slightly murky world of surveillance.

Appen's point of difference is that its data sets are annotated by humans, via a huge pool of temporary workers Appen has established around the globe.

There are two key parts of the business: The language resource division, where Appen provides speech recognition for big tech firms and governments (revenue here jumped 21 per cent); and the content relevance arm, which helps AI developers train their algorithms (revenue here jumped an impressive 148 per cent in 2018).

Underlying earnings before interest, tax, deprecation and amortisation jumped 153 per cent to $71.3 million; in 2019, EBITDA will hit $85 million to $90 million, well above what the market had expected.

This is the AI hype being turned into a real and very profitable Australian business.

One fascinating aspect of the business is that Appen appears to make few one-offs sales.

As chief executive Mark Brayan pointed out on Monday, AI works as it eats more and more data; a third of AI applications require monthly data updates, and one quarter of these need weekly updates. So customers need to keep coming back, and coming back.

Appen provides a graph that tracks how much revenue comes from customers it won in previous years. What's clear is that the biggest chunk still comes from clients that were on the books back in 2014.

With Appen now trading on a multiple of 44 times next year's earnings, there is a natural question as to how big this business becomes, and how much investors are willing to pay for growth.

In response, Brayan points to McKinsey research which has put the size of the global AI market at as much as $191 billion by 2021. The data-labelling market, where Appen plays, should be worth $17 billion to $19 billion......
https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/globa...20190225-h1bom5



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 05:42 PM
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Posts: 5,381
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 25 2019, 10:52 AM

QUOTE
“The results show we’re travelling pretty well,” Appen CEO Mark Brayan told The Australian. “We’re in a high growth space and I think being one of the larger, if not the largest, provider of data in to AI, so we’re enjoying a lot of growth there.

“We operate two broad sides to the business, the first is the range of data types that includes speech data, image and video. That grew handsomely due to a very strong second half, it grew 27 per cent year on year.

“While that’s pretty spectacular, it was really put in the shade by our largest division, which was relevance, so search engines and social media. That business grew 48 per cent year on year.”




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


lgrif
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 25 2019, 10:52 AM

Thanks again blacksheep. Appreciate your coverage, but one question. How day find the time to come up with all the info you post.
p.s. don't stop.

 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 10:52 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 15 2018, 06:01 PM

SP up18.5% currently @ $22.29 following release of FY2018 results. A couple of notable short alerts last week - 14/2 and 18/2 - will be scrambling to cover this morning adding to SP spike. Has left a large gap @ $18.81, which may need to be closed at some stage
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apx
APPEN’S STRONG GROWTH CONTINUES
QUOTE
Appen Limited (“Appen”) (ASX:APX) a global leader in the development of high-quality,
human annotated datasets for machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), has today
announced its Full Year results for the year ended 31st December 2018.
• Revenue up 119% to $364.3M
• Underlying EBITDA of $71.3M up 153%, statutory EBITDA up 206%1
• Underlying EBITDA margins improved from 16.9% to 19.6%
• Underlying NPAT of $49.0M up 148%, statutory NPAT of $41.7M up 192%2
• Substantial 2H for Language Resources delivers record annual divisional revenue
• High revenue growth and margin expansion for Content Relevance. Strong Q4
performance
• Leapforce integration nearing completion
• Leapforce efficiency savings of $6M in 2019, to be reinvested in engineering
• Strong cash conversion (92% of underlying EBITDA)
• Full year dividend of 8.0 cps, up 33% on 2018
• The Company’s full year underlying EBITDA for the year ending Dec 31st 2019 is
currently forecast to be in the range $85M - $90M (after engineering investment
of $6M. At A$1 = US$0.74 Feb-Dec 2019)


Attached File(s)
Attached File  apx.png ( 87.36K ) Number of downloads: 6

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 06:01 PM
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Better than expected - SP up accordingly @ $12.46 +11.55%
APPEN ANNOUNCES FULL YEAR EARNINGS UPGRADE

QUOTE
Appen Limited (“Appen”) (ASX:APX) a global leader in the development of high-quality,
human annotated datasets for machine learning and artificial intelligence, has today
announced an increase to its full year earnings guidance.

The Company’s full year underlying EBITDA for FY2018, ending December 31st 2018, is
estimated to be in the range of $62m to $65m (at A$1=US$0.80). Previous guidance was
for underlying EBITDA in the range of $54m to $59m.

Appen’s improved FY2018 earning forecast is driven by a sharp increase in monthly
revenues, largely from existing projects from existing customers. The Company’s full year
earnings are susceptible to upside or downside factors including timing of work from
major customers and Australian dollar fluctuations.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apx

No chart upload capability - failed again unfortunately



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 8 2018, 03:27 PM
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Posts: 5,699
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jun 4 2018, 10:12 PM

Has been added to S&P/ASX 200 index
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180608/pdf/...mqsn4r1dt69.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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