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IMC, IMMURON LIMITED
dr_dazmo
post Posted: Feb 12 2008, 08:19 AM
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Taint pretty!
puke.gif

Dr_Dazmo

Anadis Ltd announced in August 2007 that revenue from contract manufacture for third
parties was anticipated to come in above $8 million for the financial year 2008. This
expected increase in revenue, over 80% on the previous year, was due to the company
having secured the manufacturing of a new product line for a new client. Without
warning or explanation that third party business has been placed into Administration,
with outstanding trade debt to Anadis of approximately $400,000.



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Always remember the Golden Rule - Those with the Gold make the Rules!
 
oldgolfer
post Posted: Feb 7 2008, 01:05 PM
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In reply to: Pessimist on Wednesday 06/02/08 09:42am

Hi Pess, Now dont live up to your name. I thought they had enough dough so lets hope its good.
One thing for sure I,m not going in a capital raising. Couldnt possibly be a good enough deal.

ph34r.gif

 
Pessimist
post Posted: Feb 6 2008, 09:42 AM
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Halted on Monday and now suspended from official quotation. I see some large bids above the current SP, so maybe something good is in the wind. I'm not counting on it, though. I would have otherwise guessed a capital raising, which is often the reason for a halt. I guess no one has heard anything.

Pess


 
triage
post Posted: Jan 15 2008, 11:40 AM
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In reply to: Pessimist on Tuesday 15/01/08 12:20pm

Thanks for clarifying, Pess.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
Pessimist
post Posted: Jan 15 2008, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE (triage @ Monday 14/01/08 04:04pm)

I think Dr Jenkins was mostly referring to the past share price performance and the reasons for it, such as poor Travelan sales. He didn't really indicate much about the future, good or bad. He probably knew that I and every other shareholder there was pretty disappointed with how things had been going and was letting us know that he was too. The only reason he'd have been very optimistic was if he'd known some great deal was in the works and likely to succeed, and even then he'd have to be careful because of insider issues. Such deals don't happen often and you can't assume that the lack of one means a poor future for the company. Also, he's a scientist and not a salesman. He was just having a chat to a couple of shareholders who were there and I don't think it occurred to him to try to talk up the company's prospects. He might also have surmised that we wouldn't really be in the mood to hear how good things are going to be. I think he's just hoping, like the rest of us, that the new CEO's plans will deliver success, but I couldn't say from the conversation that he was actually pessimistic about that.

Pess


 
triage
post Posted: Jan 14 2008, 04:04 PM
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In reply to: Pessimist on Monday 14/01/08 12:18pm

Thanks Pess

What you say about your conversation with Dr Jenkins is a bit of a worry. The AGM was on 13 Nov 07 which is a tad over six months after the new CEO came on board and from what you say it seems that Jenkins still was not feeling any uplift in ANX's prospects?

There was certainly a fair bit of activity in the interim so as I said previously they appear to be putting up a fight. I see that Dr Jenkins has been a director since 1994 for goodness sake. Hopefully his apparent candour had more to do with being unsettled about the status quo being overturned rather than displeasure with the lack of change.

My feeling is that if the CEO is going to turn things around then the first signs should have started to become noticable to insiders within 6 months, and external evidence of improvement should be showing within 12 months. By my clock Dr Rosenberg has until May.

Looking forward to some New York razzle dazzle.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 


Pessimist
post Posted: Jan 14 2008, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE (triage @ Saturday 12/01/08 10:14pm)

I spoke to Dr Jenkins at the AGM during the munchies period afterwards. He was quite candid that these are troubled times and there was no BS about a blue-sky future. It wasn't a conversation you'd leave full of optimism, but I'm not reading too much into it.

Regarding your other points, I believe I heard from the company (either in literature or at the AGM) that they didn't think their process would be easy to duplicate, and the new CEO is setting about strengthening their IP.

On time to market, antibodies don't seem to need the exhaustive testing that drugs need. They seem to be regarded as intrinsically pretty safe regardless of what they are targeted at. An example is that you don't even need a prescription for Travelan. The EV-71 product is also apparently all ready to go after a pretty short period.

Pess

 
triage
post Posted: Jan 12 2008, 10:14 PM
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Pess & OG

I also have a flickering interest in Starpharma, another Melbourne biotech, and notice one of that stock's directors, Peter Jenkins, is also a director of and major shareholder in Anadis.

I would imagine with his own money on the line Dr Jenkins is paticularly focused on Anadis becoming a turnaround stock. Have you any impressions you care to share on the extent and effect of Dr Jenkins' influence? (I have to say that SPL's stock price performance has been far from impressive as well).

By the way, several of the more "popular" media outlets also picked up on ANX's recent flu announcement - does that make me a tabloid investor??:

Fox Business

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industr..._427294_10.html

MSN Money

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...0107&id=8005073

Basically same article different outlets.




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 10 2008, 10:32 AM
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In reply to: Pessimist on Thursday 10/01/08 09:34am

You are right Pess, the chairman, in his address to shareholders on 13 Nov 07, did flag the need for extra funds.

I see that a group of cockies from southern NSW, the Bega Co-op, bought out 70% of Tatura Milk from another group of cockies.

Now the first thing ANX's chair has to do if he wants to raise more money is to get the share price headed in the right direction and to do that he has to convince the Bega boys that that is what is going to happen if only they would hold off selling for a while. For a bunch of farmers that only produce cheddar cheese, Bega has proven itself to be a fairly clever operator, and of course dairy products are at the top of the cycle at the moment, so maybe they have a bit of space and incentive to delay selling.

If he cannot persuade Bega to join in on the ride then he needs to turn a negative to a positive - surely he or his managers know of a big biotech that has a spare million or so loose change that can soak up Bega's unwanted holding. Given their US and Israeli connections, surely - if not then maybe Anadis does not have the competitve advantage I thought they had.

I am really impressed with what the Board has done in recent months trying to turn things around for ANX eg moving the old managers on but keeping the people with technical skills, and the fairly courageous / desperate move to have a remote control CEO. I appreciate how patient holders such as oldgolfer and you have been but I think reckoning day for this stock is only a matter of months away (crash through or crash) and I am here for a good time and not a long time. smile.gif



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
Pessimist
post Posted: Jan 10 2008, 08:34 AM
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Posts: 1,598


Ah, I have an audience after all. Hi OG. Yes, things have been pretty grim on the share price front. Apparently, Tatura Milk (a large shareholder since a capital raising years ago) was bought out and the new owner dumped shares (for a big loss on their initial investment) until the price fell too low for them to continue. At the last change-in-substantial-holding notice they still owned over 7% of the company (about 7 million shares), so if they are selling out completely they still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised if it was mostly them selling yesterday. If so we should get another notice soon, and the nice price rise we got won't hold unless the buyers keep streaming in.

Hi triage. I'll try to address some of your points in the next few days (don't have much info with me). I would add that one advantage ANX has is the steady revenue they get from functional foods. It's only a sideline and isn't enough for them to stay out of the red, but it greatly reduces the requirement for capital. In the six years I've been a shareholder shares on issue have gone from about 80 million to about 104 million. That's a long period without much dilution. However, with such a low share price and all the changes in the works (e.g., entry into the US) I don't know if it will stay that way.

Pess


 
 


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